Florida. I live in Baghdad By the Sea, a/k/a Miami, Miami Dade county. Please pass this on.
In 2022 the legislature made it a crime for partisans to register people -- later reversed in part by a court. Approximately 900,000 unregistered women were identified -- but we couldn't execute.
Abortion and marijuana ballot initiatives should excite two of our demographics, women and Gen Zers.
We have an incumbent county mayor who is a Democrat and an estimated pool of 100,000 unregistered women who potentially can ensure her re-election. We've had voter preclusion, and Republicans have been able to cut registered voters from the rolls, the state legislature made the rules much more difficult.
As of March, registration is:
Democrats: 512,853
Republicans 439,256
No Party 464,066
Despite our Democratic majority, we are represented in the House by 3 MAGATS.
Here's how. From Miami Herald: In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade County over Trump by about 30 percentage points, despite losing Florida. Democrats didn’t expect 2020 nominee Joe Biden to do quite that well in Florida’s largest county. But they couldn’t have imagined Trump would cut into that margin by more than 20 points, as he did in a disastrous result for Biden and Florida Democrats.
Biden led President Trump in Miami-Dade by about seven percentage points … Biden’s lackluster performance in Miami-Dade opened the door for Trump to win Florida, a state he needed to win.
We are "flippable!" Here's my pitch.
To protect American democracy, reach out to millions of unregistered likely Democrats using a dedicated database using every outreach method possible (phone and text, postcard, email and targeted ad, and in-person too), where new Democratic voters will make the most impact – in the most flippable states and districts.
Vote 100% Republican every time. They don't have TV, radio, phones, read media. No "English" person will be able to convince them. Once upon a time I represented the township with the most Amish per square inch. My brother represented them until he retired. They vote. Our local bar association filed an amicus brief in the key case requiring Amish employers to withhold taxes. Just want to discuss it.
New layoff numbers are in. Joe Biden has overseen 11 million fewer layoffs to this point in his presidency as Donald Trump. This is the last Pre-pandemic month for Trump.
We can now confidently say that Joe Biden's policies have resulted in 11 million fewer Americans losing their jobs due to no fault of their own.
Well we need to look at layoffs and firings separate from quits. The JOLTS Layoff's and Discharges numbers which is both layoffs and firings. So Biden has overseen 11 million fewer of those.
Quits is off the charts under Biden. People have had much more opportunity under Joe Biden to quit a job that does not work for them and find a better one. While the number (3.48 million) this month is Way Down from the All Time High in 2022, it is roughly equivalent to Trump's highest month.
I’ve read several articles in MSM today stating Fl 6-week ban has exceptions for rape and incest. Those “exceptions” are only until 15 weeks AND a woman /child must provide “documentation”.😡
Here's an excellent overview of the potential impact of the Florida's Supreme Court putting abortion and weed on the 2024;ballot. There is definitely hope if coupled eith lots of GOTV work.
Florida is important for a few other reasons not mentioned in this post.
- Florida sometimes marches to its own drumbeat. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania can be highly correlated, so that whoever wins one is likely to win all three. Florida is not.
- Trump needs Florida to have any chance of winning, Biden doesn't (that was mentioned in the post but it's very important).
- Biden has money, Trump doesn't. Florida is an expensive place to campaign. By forcing Trump to defend Florida, Biden can force him to spread his resources much more thinly than he otherwise would have in other states.
- The Senate seat there is one of the only places Democrats can go on offense in the Senate this year. Given that West Virginia is most likely a lost cause, the extra breathing room in the Senate is a good thing.
- Florida is still the mother of all swing states, even if it hasn't chosen to play this role in recent elections.
Note that many of these apply to Texas too (especially the issue of forcing Trump to spend resources he doesn't have). If Biden has the resources to spare, I'd love to see him campaign there too. It's obviously a much harder lift than Florida, but people hate Cruz so much that at least the Senate seat might be in play. Plus flipping Texas would be such a huge blow to the GOP's morale. It might just be the push that gets them to moderate.
A poll showed Allred and Cruz in a 41-41 tie in their race. Looks like that could be a possible pick-up for the Dems. Wouldn't it be great to pick up the Senate seats of both Florida and Texas?
I do too, although his fundraising is super aggressive and I have already had to unsubscribe from his emails - last week I was getting multiple emails a day from his campaign.
Yes, I don't understand this tactic. I get multiple Biden emails a day, and at least daily from Lucas Kunce in MO. I have unsubscribed from everyone else. I am willing to give, but this is really off-putting, and I may end up unsubscribing from both. Seems like once a week would be far more effective--could be like a newsletter with a fundraising request.
My current US House Rep., Jeff Jackson, writes interesting emails about how stuff gets done in Congress and what life is like as a freshman representative. There is always a link to his website to donate, but it is like 90+% interesting content and a little bit of low-key fundraising.
One week, he mentioned towards the end of his email that he and his staff had a bet going about whether people actually read his emails to the end
and we could help him win the bet by sending in a donation of any size. The next week his email had a message from his staff saying that they were amazed at how many people do read his emails and reported on the spike in fundraising after the previous email. Quite refreshingly different!
Unfortunately he got gerrymandered out of his district fr the 2024 election. (The current GOP speaker of the NC House -ugh! - is now a shoe-in for the seat). The good news is that Jeff Jaskson is running for the open AG seat. The current Democratic AG, Josh Stein, is running for Governor against a real nut case, current Lt. Governor Mark Robinson. If you haven't heard of him, check out https://www.realmarkrobinson.com/.
This is really interesting, Cheryl. And oh, yes, I have indeed heard of Mark Robinson. And the crazy and dangerous woman running to be in charge of your schools. Good luck NC Dems!
As I see it, even if Florida isn’t actually “winnable” it’s a big win to make Trump spend his limited time and money defending his 2020 states like FL and NC. He needs to flip some combo of the swing states he lost (PA, MI, GA, WI, AZ), so if he has to put his resources into defending FL that’s fewer resources that he has for the states he needs to flip. Biden is running an offensive expansion campaign, Trump is defending several “safe” states he won with significantly fewer resources (and he won’t really be able to campaign for the next 2 months while he’s in trial).
Abortion and weed being on the ballot and needing 60% is great news for us- two very motivating issues for voters will drive up registration and turnout.
Yeah, it is also a great place for the Biden campaign to spend money on something other TV ads early. I know they are important but after September of an election year people largely tune them out. You end throwing good money after bad when it comes to TV ads.
I agree with the fact that TV ads are ineffective. I heard a quote one time that Hillary Clinton spent $900 MM on TV ads, to be defeated by a clown on Twitter.
Overall I think we probably spend too much on TV ads, but mostly because of diminishing returns in the last couple of weeks and percentage compensation to ad buyers. I would prefer if every one in the country got a positive ad impression of Biden evetime they got online from now until the election.
Instead I just have marginally Democratic family members getting pissed that they get emails and texts every day addressed to me asking for just $10 more dollars. And I get a youtube ad of Joe asking me for more money. I give a monthy re-occurring donation to the campaign they have to find a way for that to be enough. We have a long way to go for targeting and waste around asks for money and votes.
Realistically the Democratic party and it's allies are going to spend probably 5 billion if not more on TV ads over the next 7 months. I do not know why a few million cannot be spent on cleaning lists, and coming up with consistent communication techniques to reduce the waste around grassroot and voter contact.
Of course you are right Simon, no hard data on it.
Just anic-data, but it is a conclusion I stand by if only because it is feelings that I feel in myself and see others experience. People are most open to the political ad message the more novel it seems and internalize the message through repetition. This is effective but the repetition and oversaturation trains people to identify the new trends in the ads, tune them out and despise lack of variance. Once you have President, Governor, Senator, Congressperson, and local officials all chasing the same trends competing for attention, the market trains audience to tune out the messages to the best of their ability.
Much in the same way I might have once believed that my congress person was really only $1,152 from their mid month goal, I now just delete them without reading the asks. I am not advocating ceding the ground just that I suspect the saturation rate in the last few weeks is lower than general convention. And we should be critically looking at what it means that our most consistent contact with the public is a plea for cash, often in the most hyperbolic and in a poorly targeted manner.
The fact that my dad and brothers email and spam text folders are full of Dems asking for money addressed to me shows how low of a priority this is for us. I am always baffled that these marginally democratic voters are only info dumped in the last few months and annoyed by our more consistent message. "money please"
I think they are effective. I just think some point in October most election years we hit a saturation point. I would rather the messaging and organizing start early instead of running the same ad three times each commercial break
Simon, of course you know much more about this than I do. I can just say that I have not watched a political ad myself, other than something highlighted on a blog like this, in 25 years. I don't live in a swing state, rarely watch regular TV, and when ads do come on I press Mute.
More than anything I want Biden & other Dems to win this fall, so I am adding this comment to try to help. The person I heard the quote about HIllary's being beaten by the clown on twitter was David Rix, the author of Brown is the New Black, at a national conference of LCV. He went on to say that it was inexpensive to hire Latina organizers in neighborhoods, and that each one would bring in many new voters. I would love to know your opinion on this opinion, and whether you have tried financing neighborhood organizers in the past.
Thanks for the link to this article. He is absolutely right about this:
"Pissed-off women are dangerous women, and the six-week bans on abortion are having a massive political ripple effect in the country."
A whole bunch of the senior women living in FL were probaby of child-bearing age BEFORE Roe V Wade went into effect and I feel confident that this is not what they want for their grand- and great-granddaughters!
The big take away for me is putting abortion on the ballot making it a possibility for the Democrats to take Florida with lots of hard work. The other take away is, as Simon mentioned, that Trump's campaign is cash strapped meaning if the Democrats put money into Florida it will be harder for the GOP to fight them without taking what little resources they have from the other competitive states. Florida could become more of a threat to the GOP than the Democrats.
Simon/anyone, I keep seeing repeated references to Tom Bonier, whose work I have immense respect for. Where can I read his posts or writings, without hitting a paywall? I would very much like to know!
– Tom Bonier’s last post on Threads is more than 7 weeks old. Perhaps he’s given up the platform?
On the NC front, I wanted to share this blog post from Carolina Forward. It is mostly about Wake County but also mentions Mecklenburg County. The ultra-MAGA GOP ticket should be a good motivator to get the Dems out in November, but we still have a lot of work to do!
I just finished reading a book entitled The Election of 2020 which was a series of chapters by political scientists on different aspects of the election. One chapter by Paul Quirk discussed the contrast between Biden and Trump. While I am aware of their differences, this chapter reminded me of Biden’s significant strengths. It referenced a book by Greenstein entitled The Presidential Difference where the author identifies the key characteristics of successful presidents based on his analysis of the presidencies from FDR through Obama. He comes up with six main attributes of great presidents: must be effective as a political communicator, superior organizational capacity, political skill, vision, strong cognitive style and emotional intelligence (ability to manage emotions and stay steady).
In evaluating these attributes in terms of Biden’s presidency, Quirk rates Biden very high on each of these. He points out that Biden has been able to effectively communicate in town halls and debates and political speeches in spite of occasional gaffes. As leading advisor to Obama, he’s had direct experience in White House decision-making, managing the many levels and groups that are involved in any major decision. His political skills have allowed him to win the Senate at the age of 29 and get reelected six times and he has been generally well respected on both sides of the aisle in all that time . In terms of vision he was productive in his leadership of the Judiciary and Foreign Relations Committees and has been a balanced and thoughtful commander in chief in terms of our foreign policy and the very challenging domestic politics he faced with COVID on assuming the Presidency. In terms of his cognitive style he has a sound command of policy issues, can negotiate well in conflict situations and finally in terms of emotional intelligence he is generally well regarded in his professional roles and relationships with a wide range of friendships in the Senate. And he has a strong capacity to demonstrate sincere empathy in response to peoples’ suffering. The author speaks of his age as being his biggest defect though in terms of many of these attributes he’s done well because of the length and breadth of his experience. In contrast Trump as we know is generally uninformed about government policy, narcissistic and disagreeable in his personality style, his business career is rife with fraud and bankruptcy and stiffing his lenders, he’s a serial adulterer, as president he changed out cabinet positions repeatedly, was chaotic and unscientific in his handling of the pandemic, he spurred on an insurrection and refused to honor election results etc etc. In short the contrast between the two candidates is truly staggering. I found this analysis helpful in reminding me of all the ways that Jos Biden has been a superior President and is the very best possible Democratic candidate to beat Donald Trump.
I wanted to promote an event from BigTent USA - It is part of their Tent Talk Series and is today at noon. The speaker is Jackie Payne from Galvanize Action. I have heard her presentation before and it is very compelling.
Below the list of upcoming events, they have an archive of past events, so I assume the Galvanize event will be posted soon..
I attended the Tent Talk for VoteRiders and found it very interesting. After the Tent Talk, I volunteered and just completed 3 batches of 20 letters to NC voters who may not currently have the IDs they need to vote in light of new voter ID laws. They currently have letter-writing campaigns in OH, NC, and WI and you can sign up through BigTent USA here: https://www.bigtentusa.org/take-action-2/#voterid
Hi all-- Florida voter here living in Rome Italy. While I am horrified by the draconian 6-week abortion ban and the suffering and pain it will cause women in my state, I can also see that the anger that this extreme policy will cause will motivate voters. I just want to remind all Hopium members that there are 6.5 million US citizens living abroad and we can vote! If you know someone living abroad - including young people heading to study abroad this fall - send them to https://votefromabroad.org The number of our overseas votes in Georgia and Arizona in 2020 was greater than the margin of victory in both states! Let's do the same in 2024 for Florida!
For those feeling motivated by the potential change in fortunes in FL, this is a group that works year-round building relationships with Latino voters. They do a lot of registering voters, and worked hard on the abortion initiative petition. If anyone else knows more about their effectiveness, etc, please feel free to chime in, but this is the kind of long-horizon work we need to do to turn things around there. https://mivecinoflorida.com/
Very interesting - they had a link on their website to a Lincoln Project podcast. I like that they are "reverse engineering" what the GOP did and that they are using cultural cues to get support from Latino men for the ballot initiative on abortion rights.
Mailed off my first 30 Gallego postcards today. At the cafe where I wrote them the barista asked what I was doing & when I told her she replied that she was from phoenix & I replied " Tell all your friends to vote for Gallego ! " to which she said " oh I have!"
Florida. I live in Baghdad By the Sea, a/k/a Miami, Miami Dade county. Please pass this on.
In 2022 the legislature made it a crime for partisans to register people -- later reversed in part by a court. Approximately 900,000 unregistered women were identified -- but we couldn't execute.
Abortion and marijuana ballot initiatives should excite two of our demographics, women and Gen Zers.
We have an incumbent county mayor who is a Democrat and an estimated pool of 100,000 unregistered women who potentially can ensure her re-election. We've had voter preclusion, and Republicans have been able to cut registered voters from the rolls, the state legislature made the rules much more difficult.
As of March, registration is:
Democrats: 512,853
Republicans 439,256
No Party 464,066
Despite our Democratic majority, we are represented in the House by 3 MAGATS.
If our mayor Daniella Levine Cava sweeps, she can carry all the other races and maybe the rest of the state. https://www.miamidade.gov/global/government/biographies/mayor.page
Here's how. From Miami Herald: In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade County over Trump by about 30 percentage points, despite losing Florida. Democrats didn’t expect 2020 nominee Joe Biden to do quite that well in Florida’s largest county. But they couldn’t have imagined Trump would cut into that margin by more than 20 points, as he did in a disastrous result for Biden and Florida Democrats.
Biden led President Trump in Miami-Dade by about seven percentage points … Biden’s lackluster performance in Miami-Dade opened the door for Trump to win Florida, a state he needed to win.
We are "flippable!" Here's my pitch.
To protect American democracy, reach out to millions of unregistered likely Democrats using a dedicated database using every outreach method possible (phone and text, postcard, email and targeted ad, and in-person too), where new Democratic voters will make the most impact – in the most flippable states and districts.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/actions
Dan Solomon
apaalj@ gmail.com
703 4897438
BTW, I also want to speak to someone at DNC about flipping approximately 200,000 Amish votes.
Flipping Amish votes? Are you saying the Amish voted for Trump?
I would be very interested in seeing a link to polls of Amish voters or statistics on their voting!
Vote 100% Republican every time. They don't have TV, radio, phones, read media. No "English" person will be able to convince them. Once upon a time I represented the township with the most Amish per square inch. My brother represented them until he retired. They vote. Our local bar association filed an amicus brief in the key case requiring Amish employers to withhold taxes. Just want to discuss it.
New layoff numbers are in. Joe Biden has overseen 11 million fewer layoffs to this point in his presidency as Donald Trump. This is the last Pre-pandemic month for Trump.
We can now confidently say that Joe Biden's policies have resulted in 11 million fewer Americans losing their jobs due to no fault of their own.
Joe Biden averages 300,000 fewer layoffs a month than Donald Trumps Pre-pandemic averages, and 700,000 fewer than Trumps overall average.
Moreover, the Biden Administration has seen a heckuva lot fewer layoffs/firings/resignations than the Trump Regime experienced.
Edit: I am referring to jobs in the Executive branch. Apologies if I was unclear.
Well we need to look at layoffs and firings separate from quits. The JOLTS Layoff's and Discharges numbers which is both layoffs and firings. So Biden has overseen 11 million fewer of those.
Quits is off the charts under Biden. People have had much more opportunity under Joe Biden to quit a job that does not work for them and find a better one. While the number (3.48 million) this month is Way Down from the All Time High in 2022, it is roughly equivalent to Trump's highest month.
Thank you Simon for a lot of Hopium today. I just donated on an ongoing monthly basis to the Florida chapter of the Alliance for Retired Americans.
Please ask them to partner with Field Team 6.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/mission
Just wondering if the new conditions in Florida make it possible to defeat Rick Scott there?
Si.
It’s high time for new hard-hitting ads that remind voters of Rick Scott’s gigantic fraud against Medicare!
https://www.factcheck.org/2014/06/floridas-medicare-fraud-flashback/
Or how he wants to sunset SS and Medicare. Or how he's an asshole.
I'm planning for Democrats to take seats away from Scott in FL and Cruz in TX. Stretching my little pennies as far as they will stretch!!
Rick Scott(and Rubio) supports a National Abortion Ban! He co-sponsored the “Pain Capable Unborn Child Protection Act.” 📣
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3275/cosponsors
I’ve read several articles in MSM today stating Fl 6-week ban has exceptions for rape and incest. Those “exceptions” are only until 15 weeks AND a woman /child must provide “documentation”.😡
Here's an excellent overview of the potential impact of the Florida's Supreme Court putting abortion and weed on the 2024;ballot. There is definitely hope if coupled eith lots of GOTV work.
https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-167-abortion-and-weed-will?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1ck78&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Please link to Field Team 6 on your substack.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/mission
Great news.
Florida is important for a few other reasons not mentioned in this post.
- Florida sometimes marches to its own drumbeat. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania can be highly correlated, so that whoever wins one is likely to win all three. Florida is not.
- Trump needs Florida to have any chance of winning, Biden doesn't (that was mentioned in the post but it's very important).
- Biden has money, Trump doesn't. Florida is an expensive place to campaign. By forcing Trump to defend Florida, Biden can force him to spread his resources much more thinly than he otherwise would have in other states.
- The Senate seat there is one of the only places Democrats can go on offense in the Senate this year. Given that West Virginia is most likely a lost cause, the extra breathing room in the Senate is a good thing.
- Florida is still the mother of all swing states, even if it hasn't chosen to play this role in recent elections.
Note that many of these apply to Texas too (especially the issue of forcing Trump to spend resources he doesn't have). If Biden has the resources to spare, I'd love to see him campaign there too. It's obviously a much harder lift than Florida, but people hate Cruz so much that at least the Senate seat might be in play. Plus flipping Texas would be such a huge blow to the GOP's morale. It might just be the push that gets them to moderate.
A poll showed Allred and Cruz in a 41-41 tie in their race. Looks like that could be a possible pick-up for the Dems. Wouldn't it be great to pick up the Senate seats of both Florida and Texas?
It would be awesome! Imagine gaining a seat on our toughest Senate map. I have Allred included in my monthly donations for this reason.
I do too, although his fundraising is super aggressive and I have already had to unsubscribe from his emails - last week I was getting multiple emails a day from his campaign.
Yes, I don't understand this tactic. I get multiple Biden emails a day, and at least daily from Lucas Kunce in MO. I have unsubscribed from everyone else. I am willing to give, but this is really off-putting, and I may end up unsubscribing from both. Seems like once a week would be far more effective--could be like a newsletter with a fundraising request.
My current US House Rep., Jeff Jackson, writes interesting emails about how stuff gets done in Congress and what life is like as a freshman representative. There is always a link to his website to donate, but it is like 90+% interesting content and a little bit of low-key fundraising.
One week, he mentioned towards the end of his email that he and his staff had a bet going about whether people actually read his emails to the end
and we could help him win the bet by sending in a donation of any size. The next week his email had a message from his staff saying that they were amazed at how many people do read his emails and reported on the spike in fundraising after the previous email. Quite refreshingly different!
Unfortunately he got gerrymandered out of his district fr the 2024 election. (The current GOP speaker of the NC House -ugh! - is now a shoe-in for the seat). The good news is that Jeff Jaskson is running for the open AG seat. The current Democratic AG, Josh Stein, is running for Governor against a real nut case, current Lt. Governor Mark Robinson. If you haven't heard of him, check out https://www.realmarkrobinson.com/.
This is really interesting, Cheryl. And oh, yes, I have indeed heard of Mark Robinson. And the crazy and dangerous woman running to be in charge of your schools. Good luck NC Dems!
As I see it, even if Florida isn’t actually “winnable” it’s a big win to make Trump spend his limited time and money defending his 2020 states like FL and NC. He needs to flip some combo of the swing states he lost (PA, MI, GA, WI, AZ), so if he has to put his resources into defending FL that’s fewer resources that he has for the states he needs to flip. Biden is running an offensive expansion campaign, Trump is defending several “safe” states he won with significantly fewer resources (and he won’t really be able to campaign for the next 2 months while he’s in trial).
Abortion and weed being on the ballot and needing 60% is great news for us- two very motivating issues for voters will drive up registration and turnout.
Yeah, it is also a great place for the Biden campaign to spend money on something other TV ads early. I know they are important but after September of an election year people largely tune them out. You end throwing good money after bad when it comes to TV ads.
I agree with the fact that TV ads are ineffective. I heard a quote one time that Hillary Clinton spent $900 MM on TV ads, to be defeated by a clown on Twitter.
Overall I think we probably spend too much on TV ads, but mostly because of diminishing returns in the last couple of weeks and percentage compensation to ad buyers. I would prefer if every one in the country got a positive ad impression of Biden evetime they got online from now until the election.
Instead I just have marginally Democratic family members getting pissed that they get emails and texts every day addressed to me asking for just $10 more dollars. And I get a youtube ad of Joe asking me for more money. I give a monthy re-occurring donation to the campaign they have to find a way for that to be enough. We have a long way to go for targeting and waste around asks for money and votes.
Realistically the Democratic party and it's allies are going to spend probably 5 billion if not more on TV ads over the next 7 months. I do not know why a few million cannot be spent on cleaning lists, and coming up with consistent communication techniques to reduce the waste around grassroot and voter contact.
Josh, do you have data on the diminishing returns argument?
Of course you are right Simon, no hard data on it.
Just anic-data, but it is a conclusion I stand by if only because it is feelings that I feel in myself and see others experience. People are most open to the political ad message the more novel it seems and internalize the message through repetition. This is effective but the repetition and oversaturation trains people to identify the new trends in the ads, tune them out and despise lack of variance. Once you have President, Governor, Senator, Congressperson, and local officials all chasing the same trends competing for attention, the market trains audience to tune out the messages to the best of their ability.
Much in the same way I might have once believed that my congress person was really only $1,152 from their mid month goal, I now just delete them without reading the asks. I am not advocating ceding the ground just that I suspect the saturation rate in the last few weeks is lower than general convention. And we should be critically looking at what it means that our most consistent contact with the public is a plea for cash, often in the most hyperbolic and in a poorly targeted manner.
The fact that my dad and brothers email and spam text folders are full of Dems asking for money addressed to me shows how low of a priority this is for us. I am always baffled that these marginally democratic voters are only info dumped in the last few months and annoyed by our more consistent message. "money please"
Um, the idea that TV Ads are not effective is not true peeps.
I think they are effective. I just think some point in October most election years we hit a saturation point. I would rather the messaging and organizing start early instead of running the same ad three times each commercial break
The messaging and organizing has started. You’re welcome to join us on the Reach app. Also following Biden-Harris HQ, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris on their social media. You can find training classes for REACH & other organizing activities here: https://events.democrats.org/?participation_id=25038500&lat=None&lon=None&address=Virtual+event&followup_modal_context=SMS_TEST_AFTER_TIMER
Simon, of course you know much more about this than I do. I can just say that I have not watched a political ad myself, other than something highlighted on a blog like this, in 25 years. I don't live in a swing state, rarely watch regular TV, and when ads do come on I press Mute.
More than anything I want Biden & other Dems to win this fall, so I am adding this comment to try to help. The person I heard the quote about HIllary's being beaten by the clown on twitter was David Rix, the author of Brown is the New Black, at a national conference of LCV. He went on to say that it was inexpensive to hire Latina organizers in neighborhoods, and that each one would bring in many new voters. I would love to know your opinion on this opinion, and whether you have tried financing neighborhood organizers in the past.
Rick Wilson, who has an intimate knowledge of Florida electoral politics, has similar thoughts:
https://open.substack.com/pub/therickwilson/p/welcome-to-ground-zero?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4tfz3
Thanks for the link to this article. He is absolutely right about this:
"Pissed-off women are dangerous women, and the six-week bans on abortion are having a massive political ripple effect in the country."
A whole bunch of the senior women living in FL were probaby of child-bearing age BEFORE Roe V Wade went into effect and I feel confident that this is not what they want for their grand- and great-granddaughters!
The big take away for me is putting abortion on the ballot making it a possibility for the Democrats to take Florida with lots of hard work. The other take away is, as Simon mentioned, that Trump's campaign is cash strapped meaning if the Democrats put money into Florida it will be harder for the GOP to fight them without taking what little resources they have from the other competitive states. Florida could become more of a threat to the GOP than the Democrats.
Simon/anyone, I keep seeing repeated references to Tom Bonier, whose work I have immense respect for. Where can I read his posts or writings, without hitting a paywall? I would very much like to know!
– Tom Bonier’s last post on Threads is more than 7 weeks old. Perhaps he’s given up the platform?
– I’m not finding his political musings on TargetSmart.com
– And I am unable to display recent Twitter posts.
I just found this interview with Tom Bonier. Worth a listen,
https://grassrootsconnector.substack.com/p/get-off-the-pollercoaster-interview
On the NC front, I wanted to share this blog post from Carolina Forward. It is mostly about Wake County but also mentions Mecklenburg County. The ultra-MAGA GOP ticket should be a good motivator to get the Dems out in November, but we still have a lot of work to do!
https://carolinaforward.org/blog/gop-metro-implosion/?
Simon is highlighting NC. Hopefully this will be the year it is in the Dem column.
I just finished reading a book entitled The Election of 2020 which was a series of chapters by political scientists on different aspects of the election. One chapter by Paul Quirk discussed the contrast between Biden and Trump. While I am aware of their differences, this chapter reminded me of Biden’s significant strengths. It referenced a book by Greenstein entitled The Presidential Difference where the author identifies the key characteristics of successful presidents based on his analysis of the presidencies from FDR through Obama. He comes up with six main attributes of great presidents: must be effective as a political communicator, superior organizational capacity, political skill, vision, strong cognitive style and emotional intelligence (ability to manage emotions and stay steady).
In evaluating these attributes in terms of Biden’s presidency, Quirk rates Biden very high on each of these. He points out that Biden has been able to effectively communicate in town halls and debates and political speeches in spite of occasional gaffes. As leading advisor to Obama, he’s had direct experience in White House decision-making, managing the many levels and groups that are involved in any major decision. His political skills have allowed him to win the Senate at the age of 29 and get reelected six times and he has been generally well respected on both sides of the aisle in all that time . In terms of vision he was productive in his leadership of the Judiciary and Foreign Relations Committees and has been a balanced and thoughtful commander in chief in terms of our foreign policy and the very challenging domestic politics he faced with COVID on assuming the Presidency. In terms of his cognitive style he has a sound command of policy issues, can negotiate well in conflict situations and finally in terms of emotional intelligence he is generally well regarded in his professional roles and relationships with a wide range of friendships in the Senate. And he has a strong capacity to demonstrate sincere empathy in response to peoples’ suffering. The author speaks of his age as being his biggest defect though in terms of many of these attributes he’s done well because of the length and breadth of his experience. In contrast Trump as we know is generally uninformed about government policy, narcissistic and disagreeable in his personality style, his business career is rife with fraud and bankruptcy and stiffing his lenders, he’s a serial adulterer, as president he changed out cabinet positions repeatedly, was chaotic and unscientific in his handling of the pandemic, he spurred on an insurrection and refused to honor election results etc etc. In short the contrast between the two candidates is truly staggering. I found this analysis helpful in reminding me of all the ways that Jos Biden has been a superior President and is the very best possible Democratic candidate to beat Donald Trump.
When all is said and done, I think Joe Biden will be remembered as the most effective president since LBJ.
God I hope so !!!
I wanted to promote an event from BigTent USA - It is part of their Tent Talk Series and is today at noon. The speaker is Jackie Payne from Galvanize Action. I have heard her presentation before and it is very compelling.
What's Motivating Moderate Women to Vote
https://www.bigtentusa.org/event/galvanize/
If you are unable to attend due to the timing, check back to the events page here in the future:
https://www.bigtentusa.org/our-events/
Below the list of upcoming events, they have an archive of past events, so I assume the Galvanize event will be posted soon..
I attended the Tent Talk for VoteRiders and found it very interesting. After the Tent Talk, I volunteered and just completed 3 batches of 20 letters to NC voters who may not currently have the IDs they need to vote in light of new voter ID laws. They currently have letter-writing campaigns in OH, NC, and WI and you can sign up through BigTent USA here: https://www.bigtentusa.org/take-action-2/#voterid
Hi all-- Florida voter here living in Rome Italy. While I am horrified by the draconian 6-week abortion ban and the suffering and pain it will cause women in my state, I can also see that the anger that this extreme policy will cause will motivate voters. I just want to remind all Hopium members that there are 6.5 million US citizens living abroad and we can vote! If you know someone living abroad - including young people heading to study abroad this fall - send them to https://votefromabroad.org The number of our overseas votes in Georgia and Arizona in 2020 was greater than the margin of victory in both states! Let's do the same in 2024 for Florida!
For those feeling motivated by the potential change in fortunes in FL, this is a group that works year-round building relationships with Latino voters. They do a lot of registering voters, and worked hard on the abortion initiative petition. If anyone else knows more about their effectiveness, etc, please feel free to chime in, but this is the kind of long-horizon work we need to do to turn things around there. https://mivecinoflorida.com/
Very interesting - they had a link on their website to a Lincoln Project podcast. I like that they are "reverse engineering" what the GOP did and that they are using cultural cues to get support from Latino men for the ballot initiative on abortion rights.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/were-here-for-freedom-with-mi-vecino-devon-murphy/id1551582052?i=1000646324694
I think that podcast is where I first learned about them.
Mailed off my first 30 Gallego postcards today. At the cafe where I wrote them the barista asked what I was doing & when I told her she replied that she was from phoenix & I replied " Tell all your friends to vote for Gallego ! " to which she said " oh I have!"