As a resident of a rural, red area, I strongly endorse the idea of putting some effort into our areas. Yes, it can cut the overall losses. VA would have a Dem governor if the Dems hadn't ignored rural areas last time, counting on getting enough votes from Arlington to do the job. Also, my area is seeing the highest growth in the state and is, over time, getting purple. A little spending can go a long way to build party structure that outlasts any one campaign in these places. Glad to see the Harris campaign doing this.
The thing is too is that even if you don’t win the rural areas, increasing turnout and even losing by less in those counties can help make a difference. Good for Kamala Harris for not ignoring the rural areas!
I still love Joe Biden. The media, which needs to sell controversy, seems to continue pooh-poohing his accomplishments. But historians, who have the luxury of objective hindsight, will put Biden's amazing accomplishments in proper perspective; one of America's greatest presidents and a gift to all of us.
I'm quickly learning to love Kamala Harris. What a miraculous transition. And I believe she will win big-time on Nov 5.
We can see victory in the voter numbers starting at the 81 million who voted for Joe, in her contributions, in her engaging and hopeful messaging, in women's health choices, in her taking back to the Democratic Party the fundamental words of "freedom", "patriotism", "loyalty","joy", her outreach to all Americans, her dismissal of Trump as unserious thereby incapable of trolling Democrats, and so forth. Who to vote for is such a simple choice; Goodness and Joy or Trump and MAGA's Awfulness.
We can see victory in the tidal wave of new volunteers joining the millions of grassroots activists who have been working since 2016 to bring back a Democratic majority in Congress and the White House. This majority will arrive and pass historic legislation for Americans.
For all of us who grew up in the midst of Vietnam protests and the Civil Rights movements, we know the power of the most potent force in our democracy; The Consent of the Governed. Given time and diligence, it will overwhelm the the enemy we face; The Tyranny of the Minority.
Trump's final act will not be overthrowing our Democracy but finally electing a woman POTUS in America.✌️✌️
Indeed, the “media sell controversy.”Journalists serve the corrupt Media owners only interested in clicks and revenue. Cable tv, even MSNBC support maga in their reporting, or likely would lose their jobs.
Super spectacular Production Staff for the Harris-Walz DNC gave us a truthful, memorable experience, filled with beauty, Hopium and Joy.
Re media... Amen! So tired of the media contributing to the problem. What can we as ordinary citizens do to hold mainstream media accountable? I already boycott them. Is there a bigger movement somewhere that I'm not familiar with? Yelp for media and journalism?
These comment sections on Substack is one way to get the word out but when we WIN we cannot forget how vile the media has been and continue to boycott not just the press but their sponsors and the mother companies who own them.
We can seek out and support nonprofit news organizations. Here is one https://statesnewsroom.com/ but there are others.
I think the problems we're experiencing with for-profit media are due to their need to generate clicks. That would explain the prevalence of misleading headlines.
Thanks to all the encouragement, information and Hopium I've gained from this site, I've leveled up from postcard writing to Harris-Walz phone banking to now, helping to facilitate the phone banks. Please message me if you'd like to learn more about the process. Training is provided, and it's easy to learn. When we fight, we win! https://events.democrats.org/event/664004/
Indeed-I was a reporter and editor for 36 years and reporters, under pressure to write something, will often take the lazy path of least resistance. Human nature. Not to say there isn’t some great reporting, but I agree with you that lazy pack journalism often carries the day. So tired of hearing about the Harris honeymoon while the mainstream press normalizes Trump’s insanity and obvious slide into mental befuddlement.
Thanks for another well-written and researched article Simon. Thanks for doing what you do and being who you are: an outspoken champion for our Democracy. I'm too busy running a postcarding group and postcarding at all hours to do a deep dive into current polls etc. So appreciate you collating all this information for all of us.
I remember reading I think in Jan/Feb the numbers of field offices Biden had established early on and notably in rural areas to the point Simon was emphasizing in scaling back those margins in while running up the score on urban areas. I believe Ben Wilkes (Wisconsin DNC chair?) made this exact same point. I had no reason to believe that Harris would deviate from this and this bus tour highlights staying the course. Think it also should be noted the lack of Trump field offices and the limited staff they have put on the ground
Like Merril, I too still love and admire Joe Biden. His astonishing historic legislative output with minimal advantage in Congress is based upon decades of experience, mistakes, learning and understanding. Perhaps the problem is not that Joe is too old but that other candidates are too young. Until this century, few humans lived long enough to be able to benefit from their life experiences. Now, with productive human life extending into the 90's and even tipping into 100's, our world has a better chance. Harris, bless her, is experienced and old enough to value Biden's advice, while young enough to carry it out and grow for another few decades.
I think you also have to remember that President Biden is setting a historic precedent for other older leaders. I am thinking particularly of those in Africa that do not have his record of success, and yet cling to power on a continent where the median age (I think) is about 18 years old.
Here's the NYT reporting on the matter: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/30/world/africa/biden-biya-world-oldest-leaders.html. And see Merrill's comment, because I wrote about Biden's legacy in my blog. I am also hoping that, if we ever get the ceasefire, Biden can convince the PA's Abbas to step aside by force of Biden's moral authority on stepping aside for the good of his people.
Simon, I would like to see the Harris/Walz campaign speak out more frequently and forcefully about the danger of an even more-MAGAfied Supreme Court. Does that seem like good or bad strategy to you?
Great that the Harris campaign is going rural. I grew up in Henderson County NC and the recent activities/communications of the local Dems. shows how fired-up they are. It is a prosperous, growing county that went 58.55% Trump in 2020 (down from 59.93% for McCain in 2008) but I bet that can be reduced significantly this year. The county is conservative, but there is some moderate Republican and blue-dog Democrat genes in the political DNA. Haley got 31% vs. Trump, and Robinson, the extreme MAGA candidate for governor, got just under 60% vs. two Republican alternatives. I’m going down for a visit to volunteer. I think Simon is right that Robinson underlines for voters the Republican nuttiness.
It’s in the western part of the state, south of Asheville, part of the 11th District. It used to be Dem before it got gerrymandered. Mark Meadows was the Congressman, then the infamous Matthew Cawthorn. When he crashed and burned, a normal” conservative, Chuck Edwards, beat him in the primary. Before the gerrymander, the former Redskin quarterback Keith Shuler was the rep., from 2007 to 2013. I forget how long he served. He was a good ole blue dog Dem., perhaps not ideal to some but the way to win that district.
Thanks for the link,Ellen! I might add that ballot curing is a good way to dip your toes, or should I say fingers in for those who are hesitant about phonebanking.
Im all for everything he is doing And I really really hope he and the campaign are,not just letting enthusiasm and illusions govern them. I live in a farm in a very rural, very red part of Virginia. I doubt if their campaigning here would net them one vote. But I am very much in favor of a careful showing of the flag in a few strategic places. The simple fact is that national democrats have just not shown up here or in any other rural area for years. If Harris came and visited a fire and rescue volunteer group at its station and told them she pretty much knew they weren’t voting for her but she would be a president for them., she wouldn’t get any votes but woukd begin to change the context. But this is a difficult and chancy calculation. After all the enthusiasm, after several really great speeches, after Harris’s fantastic closing speech, Nate Silver still has this race tied in his forecast. We can’t afford one random misuse of her time just for the hell of’ it.
Since you have long been an embodiment of Michelle Obama's call to action (referencing the advice Kamala's mother gave), Simon—I thought you might enjoy a listen to "Do Something NOW."
Here is an interview with Tom Bonier talking about the data that Simon mentions in today's post along with the context of what similar seismic shifts in voter registration meant after the Dobb's decision:
The push into rural areas is so positive and I hope it can become a long-term strategy for Democrats. As someone living in a red state I would like to see Democrats work to make more states competitive. That would help us with the Senate. I believe Ohio and other states are already working to make this happen.
True, the media to survive “are raising negative questions instead of reporting facts.”
Turnout, turnout, turnout, GOTV is the way for Harris/Walz to win on November 5th.
Millions of Grassroots volunteers are writing letters and postcards, donating, phone banking, ballot curing, knocking doors, even taking buses to other states canvassing.
I am thankful for Simon and the Hopium Community for encouragement and keeping my chins up
As a resident of a rural, red area, I strongly endorse the idea of putting some effort into our areas. Yes, it can cut the overall losses. VA would have a Dem governor if the Dems hadn't ignored rural areas last time, counting on getting enough votes from Arlington to do the job. Also, my area is seeing the highest growth in the state and is, over time, getting purple. A little spending can go a long way to build party structure that outlasts any one campaign in these places. Glad to see the Harris campaign doing this.
1. Every state blue. https://everystateblue.org/
2. Forgotten Democrats. https://forgottendemocrats.org/
3. All groups should partner with FT 6 for a blue tsunami.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
And just for fun, from ruralvote.org, a little banjo music: https://www.ruralvote.org/newsupdates/joe-troop-and-his-banjo-premiere-the-ballad-of-tim-walz?link_id=0&can_id=fce3a61430871c3e6c00685cdca26752&source=email-the-energy-in-rural-america-is-unlike-anything-weve-seen&email_referrer=email_2431371&email_subject=the-energy-in-rural-america-is-unlike-anything-weve-seen
We need more of that! 🎶
The thing is too is that even if you don’t win the rural areas, increasing turnout and even losing by less in those counties can help make a difference. Good for Kamala Harris for not ignoring the rural areas!
Sort of like what they are doing in Texas
I still love Joe Biden. The media, which needs to sell controversy, seems to continue pooh-poohing his accomplishments. But historians, who have the luxury of objective hindsight, will put Biden's amazing accomplishments in proper perspective; one of America's greatest presidents and a gift to all of us.
I'm quickly learning to love Kamala Harris. What a miraculous transition. And I believe she will win big-time on Nov 5.
We can see victory in the voter numbers starting at the 81 million who voted for Joe, in her contributions, in her engaging and hopeful messaging, in women's health choices, in her taking back to the Democratic Party the fundamental words of "freedom", "patriotism", "loyalty","joy", her outreach to all Americans, her dismissal of Trump as unserious thereby incapable of trolling Democrats, and so forth. Who to vote for is such a simple choice; Goodness and Joy or Trump and MAGA's Awfulness.
We can see victory in the tidal wave of new volunteers joining the millions of grassroots activists who have been working since 2016 to bring back a Democratic majority in Congress and the White House. This majority will arrive and pass historic legislation for Americans.
For all of us who grew up in the midst of Vietnam protests and the Civil Rights movements, we know the power of the most potent force in our democracy; The Consent of the Governed. Given time and diligence, it will overwhelm the the enemy we face; The Tyranny of the Minority.
Trump's final act will not be overthrowing our Democracy but finally electing a woman POTUS in America.✌️✌️
Indeed, the “media sell controversy.”Journalists serve the corrupt Media owners only interested in clicks and revenue. Cable tv, even MSNBC support maga in their reporting, or likely would lose their jobs.
Super spectacular Production Staff for the Harris-Walz DNC gave us a truthful, memorable experience, filled with beauty, Hopium and Joy.
Re media... Amen! So tired of the media contributing to the problem. What can we as ordinary citizens do to hold mainstream media accountable? I already boycott them. Is there a bigger movement somewhere that I'm not familiar with? Yelp for media and journalism?
These comment sections on Substack is one way to get the word out but when we WIN we cannot forget how vile the media has been and continue to boycott not just the press but their sponsors and the mother companies who own them.
We can seek out and support nonprofit news organizations. Here is one https://statesnewsroom.com/ but there are others.
I think the problems we're experiencing with for-profit media are due to their need to generate clicks. That would explain the prevalence of misleading headlines.
Hello Merrill,
I actually wrote an article on my blog about just this. See here: https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/p/teach-them-how-to-say-goodbye.
There's actually more my brother and I are planning to say when (fingers crossed, knock on wood) we pull it out in November.
For those thinking like Merrill, these two articles might provide some interesting parallels:
1) https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/evidence-unpopular-mr-lincoln
2) https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/06/abraham-lincoln-is-an-idiot/309304/
Sincerely,
David and Michael Salzillo
Writers of Salzillo's Two Cents and The Political Pulse of America.
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Thanks to all the encouragement, information and Hopium I've gained from this site, I've leveled up from postcard writing to Harris-Walz phone banking to now, helping to facilitate the phone banks. Please message me if you'd like to learn more about the process. Training is provided, and it's easy to learn. When we fight, we win! https://events.democrats.org/event/664004/
We need this encouragement. The DNC Convention is over and our lazy journalists are raising negative questions instead of reporting facts.
Indeed-I was a reporter and editor for 36 years and reporters, under pressure to write something, will often take the lazy path of least resistance. Human nature. Not to say there isn’t some great reporting, but I agree with you that lazy pack journalism often carries the day. So tired of hearing about the Harris honeymoon while the mainstream press normalizes Trump’s insanity and obvious slide into mental befuddlement.
Thanks for another well-written and researched article Simon. Thanks for doing what you do and being who you are: an outspoken champion for our Democracy. I'm too busy running a postcarding group and postcarding at all hours to do a deep dive into current polls etc. So appreciate you collating all this information for all of us.
I remember reading I think in Jan/Feb the numbers of field offices Biden had established early on and notably in rural areas to the point Simon was emphasizing in scaling back those margins in while running up the score on urban areas. I believe Ben Wilkes (Wisconsin DNC chair?) made this exact same point. I had no reason to believe that Harris would deviate from this and this bus tour highlights staying the course. Think it also should be noted the lack of Trump field offices and the limited staff they have put on the ground
I think you mean Ben Wikler - he is the chair of WI Democratic party
You are correct! Thanks for the catching that 😊
Like Merril, I too still love and admire Joe Biden. His astonishing historic legislative output with minimal advantage in Congress is based upon decades of experience, mistakes, learning and understanding. Perhaps the problem is not that Joe is too old but that other candidates are too young. Until this century, few humans lived long enough to be able to benefit from their life experiences. Now, with productive human life extending into the 90's and even tipping into 100's, our world has a better chance. Harris, bless her, is experienced and old enough to value Biden's advice, while young enough to carry it out and grow for another few decades.
I think you also have to remember that President Biden is setting a historic precedent for other older leaders. I am thinking particularly of those in Africa that do not have his record of success, and yet cling to power on a continent where the median age (I think) is about 18 years old.
Here's the NYT reporting on the matter: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/30/world/africa/biden-biya-world-oldest-leaders.html. And see Merrill's comment, because I wrote about Biden's legacy in my blog. I am also hoping that, if we ever get the ceasefire, Biden can convince the PA's Abbas to step aside by force of Biden's moral authority on stepping aside for the good of his people.
Simon, I would like to see the Harris/Walz campaign speak out more frequently and forcefully about the danger of an even more-MAGAfied Supreme Court. Does that seem like good or bad strategy to you?
Great that the Harris campaign is going rural. I grew up in Henderson County NC and the recent activities/communications of the local Dems. shows how fired-up they are. It is a prosperous, growing county that went 58.55% Trump in 2020 (down from 59.93% for McCain in 2008) but I bet that can be reduced significantly this year. The county is conservative, but there is some moderate Republican and blue-dog Democrat genes in the political DNA. Haley got 31% vs. Trump, and Robinson, the extreme MAGA candidate for governor, got just under 60% vs. two Republican alternatives. I’m going down for a visit to volunteer. I think Simon is right that Robinson underlines for voters the Republican nuttiness.
Is that part of Don Davis's US House district?
It’s in the western part of the state, south of Asheville, part of the 11th District. It used to be Dem before it got gerrymandered. Mark Meadows was the Congressman, then the infamous Matthew Cawthorn. When he crashed and burned, a normal” conservative, Chuck Edwards, beat him in the primary. Before the gerrymander, the former Redskin quarterback Keith Shuler was the rep., from 2007 to 2013. I forget how long he served. He was a good ole blue dog Dem., perhaps not ideal to some but the way to win that district.
Here's a good opportunity to get involved: The DCCC is offering trainings for people who want to help with ballot curing this election cycle. I have done it before, and it's super-rewarding because you are helping people get their votes counted. https://volunteer.dccc.org/?_gl=1%2Ak0vigu%2A_ga%2AMTc4NTAxNzI0My4xNzI0ODU2NTI3%2A_ga_M24ZRCG6Y7%2AMTcyNDg1NjUyNi4xLjAuMTcyNDg1NjUzMy4wLjAuMA..&_ga=2.159282426.1714039912.1724856527-1785017243.1724856527
Thanks for the link,Ellen! I might add that ballot curing is a good way to dip your toes, or should I say fingers in for those who are hesitant about phonebanking.
Im all for everything he is doing And I really really hope he and the campaign are,not just letting enthusiasm and illusions govern them. I live in a farm in a very rural, very red part of Virginia. I doubt if their campaigning here would net them one vote. But I am very much in favor of a careful showing of the flag in a few strategic places. The simple fact is that national democrats have just not shown up here or in any other rural area for years. If Harris came and visited a fire and rescue volunteer group at its station and told them she pretty much knew they weren’t voting for her but she would be a president for them., she wouldn’t get any votes but woukd begin to change the context. But this is a difficult and chancy calculation. After all the enthusiasm, after several really great speeches, after Harris’s fantastic closing speech, Nate Silver still has this race tied in his forecast. We can’t afford one random misuse of her time just for the hell of’ it.
Since you have long been an embodiment of Michelle Obama's call to action (referencing the advice Kamala's mother gave), Simon—I thought you might enjoy a listen to "Do Something NOW."
https://petekronowitt.bandcamp.com/album/do-something-now
I'm sorry I had to miss it! I got stuck at the auto shop with my vehicle. I am very much looking forward to hearing the recording.
Here is an interview with Tom Bonier talking about the data that Simon mentions in today's post along with the context of what similar seismic shifts in voter registration meant after the Dobb's decision:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219389938?
Edited to add: Tom B. was also interviewed by Greg Sargent for his podcast "The Daily Blast":
https://newrepublic.com/article/185354/bad-news-trump-surprise-data-shows-pro-kamala-surge-new-voters?
Thank you!
Thank you for posting!
Holding for similar Dobbs/Kansas effect in Fl with Amendment 4 on the ballot.
Does anyone know which 13 states have updated their voter rolls since July ?
I’d read that the GOP-led states that withdrew from ERIC (Fl included) are struggling to update their voter rolls.
The push into rural areas is so positive and I hope it can become a long-term strategy for Democrats. As someone living in a red state I would like to see Democrats work to make more states competitive. That would help us with the Senate. I believe Ohio and other states are already working to make this happen.
True, the media to survive “are raising negative questions instead of reporting facts.”
Turnout, turnout, turnout, GOTV is the way for Harris/Walz to win on November 5th.
Millions of Grassroots volunteers are writing letters and postcards, donating, phone banking, ballot curing, knocking doors, even taking buses to other states canvassing.
I am thankful for Simon and the Hopium Community for encouragement and keeping my chins up
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
❤️ Be Loud and Proud ❤️
❤️ About the Goodness ❤️
❤️ of Our Country ❤️
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️