108 Comments
deletedMay 15
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Siena just pays to put their name on the poll, same as Marist, Emerson, Monmouth, Quinnipiac et al. It's a way to bring them some recognition. They are decent schools and offer a good education but really, they are not top tier ( which is overrated IMO....Eddie Glaude is at Princeton but he mentioned how extraordinary the programs at Rutgers are, but kids naturally want to go to Princeton; in fact every kid that got into grad or med school at Penn or Princeton from Rutgers was celebrated loudly at my daughter's commencement ). So when kids are looking at schools, people are like, hey. I've heard of Siena, Monmouth etc....

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Cohn has his narrative and is sticking to it. That poll had his thumb heavily on the scale to fit his narrative.

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May 15·edited May 15

“Donald Trump lost two debates to me in 2020, since then, he hasn’t shown up for a debate. Now he’s acting like he wants to debate me again. Well, make my day, pal.”

– President Joe Biden

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1790713878248038478

.

President Biden could add:

“If you won’t even testify in your own defense in court, what makes anyone think you’re brave enough to defend your abysmal record and abhorrent "Project 2025" policy proposals in a Presidential debate?”

“You’re afraid of E. Jean Carroll, you’re afraid of Stormy Daniels, and you’re afraid of me.”

.

Proposal:

Also, allow only a ten-second interruption while it is your opponent’s turn to speak. After that, your microphone is automatically muted.

Televise the debate with a 60-second delay with fact checkers having mute buttons. If, say, 4 out of 5 fact checkers press their button, the candidate goes silent – and the fact checkers’ comments appear on screen.

No audience. (Done deal!)

Proposed moderators: Christiane Amanpour and Anderson Cooper. (But I’d prefer Amy Goodman and Rachel Maddow.)

.

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No interruptions! And it won't be CNN rival network star Maddow moderating.

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You’re right. I’ve tweaked my post.

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My gut tells me someone in dumpy's camp will talk him out of this.

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I love this. No interriptions. Your mic is off until it’s your turn

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Donald!! MAKE OUR! DAY, PAL!!!!😁👌🔥😅

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Votes > Polls

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May 15Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Let’s think of actual elections as "Very-large-sample polls"!

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I have already noticed the change in Google search and HARUMPH!! I hate it!!

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Good update. CNN better handle this debate correctly. No audience, stick to the issues, no interruptions, cut mics, delayed to allow blocking of libelous responses and vague or outright calls for attacks on others (physical or social). That's where US politics are now. Thanks maga.

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Totally agreed. No audience, cut mics, delay to allow for blocking of absurdities from the GOP.

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Live fact-checkers, please! See my comment.

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Rep. Trone was my representative in the House for 4 years. He is a good person, did an excellent job (that no one seems to mention), more of a centrist, and lost a very devise race. I wonder if Democrats have learned anything from the Trump years? Be civil. Don't viciously attack each other. Have a big umbrella. Remember Democracy is on the line. Ours to lose.

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"The Senate is not a place for training wheels."

– David Trone campaign ad attacking Angela Alsobrooks

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Did I reference either side? Exactly what I'm talking about. Alsobrooks has not a held an elected statewide or federal position, that I can find. Army horses got sick and some died - they were the ones that pulled the caissons at Arlington. I wrote to the Army and asked how some of us in Maryland could help. They referenced an inspection report of the improvements they were going to make. I forwarded the response to Rep. Trone's office. I heard back from his staff. They wrote since Rep. Trone was on the appropriations committee he'd make sure the Army got more funding for the horses. He was doing what we elected him to do. Respond to constituent requests.

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Molly White, who runs a highly informed and fascinating blog on cryptocurrency disasters, has a recent post on her dabbling in AI such as ChatGPT. An easy and very interesting read.

https://www.citationneeded.News/ai-isnt-useless/

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I liked it. Thanks. AI is the next evolution of spell/grammer checking. There was a time when people felt spell checking would "replace" people who were good spellers, same with grammer. In reality all it did was allow many more people to spell words correctly. If you were a good speller before spell check you were an even better one after it. AI will just allow more people to write effectively, code, create art, etc, but if you are good at these things without AI you will be even better with it, not replaced.

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The answer, my friend, is still 42.

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For those people who forgot what Donald Trumps first term looked like and forgot what Joe Biden accomplished here is something to give to people with a bad memory

Donald Trump first term

Fired FBI Director Jim Comey via TV for investigating Russias role in 2016 election

Fired next in command FBI Director trying to deprive him of his pension

Fired everyone in his whitehouse who testified to congress about what was going on in the whitehouse

Separated children from their immigrant parents who came to this country and locked up the kids in cages. 1000 kids never found their parents again

Shook down the Ukrainian President for information on Joe Biden. He threatened to withhold aid to Ukraine

Trump lied to America about the pandemic saying there would only be a few cases. Then he lied about Hydroxychloriquine that it would save peoples lives. Hydroxychloriquine was connected to the deaths of 18,000 supporters. He recommended injecting bleach and Lysol. He had political rallies without masks. He allowed the pandemic to crash the economy raising the unemployment rate to 17 to 18%. People panicked at the supermarkets cleaning them out. There was no eggs, water, bread, meat and toilet paper available. Trump was responsible for the deaths of 200,000 to 300,000 people. Never used the government to ship out masks and testing kits nationwide. Trump never did anything to stop the virus and made fun of the virus saying it was kung flu

Trump ordered authorities to fire at a black lives matter protest in Washington DC with flashbangs and rubber bullets in 2020 while holding a bible upside down

Joe Biden

Singlehandedly made the white house act more responsible and normally

Defeated the pandemic when Donald Trump never took it seriously passing the American rescue plan to help the country recover

Added 14 million jobs for the fastest job growth in the nations history

Passes a 1.2 billion dollar infrastructure bill with 9 mega infrastructure projects where Donald Trump broke his promise

Passed the largest investment in clean energy in American history

Secured billions in badly needed new science spending

Lowered the cost of drugs and healthcare

Protected same sex marriage

Signed into law a 375 billion dollar climate change bill

Signed in law major gun safety

Expanded health care for veterans

Bolstered domestic manufacturing of semi conductor computer chips

Erased over 140 billion in student loan debt

passed the Emmett till anti lynching law making lynching a federal crime

created 4,000 new union jobs compared to trump’s 200

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Yeah, there's that.

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You forgot to mention the best...

Trump fired Sec. of State Rex Tillerson via Tweet, and Tillerson was reportedly on sitting on the toilet on the airplane when he read it!

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May 15Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Are you sure Republicans see a red wave at the presidential level? They're not acting like it. They seem worried about the NYC trial, and I've seen articles citing R staff who regard the election as tight. Trump blusters, but that means nothing. I'm not seeing them refer to internal polling as indicating a pres red wave. Maybe I've missed something, but perhaps you have better info than I do.

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author

Trump says it in every speech and appearance - best polls ever

His campaign has been briefing reporters about how they believe they are doing better than they expected and are ahead

It is coming from the media and commentators on TV to describe the election as one where Trump leads

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Trump is always like that seems to me (constant bluster as part of his Norman Vincent Peale positive thinking approach), but I did not know about the campaign briefings. Thank you!

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I also wonder if his campaign staff actually believe what they're saying or if projecting confidence is part of their communications strategy. There's no way of us knowing that I guess, but you actually know these people and this world. So you would have a much better sense than I do.

Btw, I'm a Tufts grad too, FAS 1978.

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Comms strategy is my guess. Shape the perception of the race.

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Agree - creating the perception of invincibility and inevitability is straight from Putin's playbook.

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Trump’s main pollster Fabrizio fed a line of bs about poll numbers to donors but that to me sounded like trying to reassure people they weren’t wasting money. Of course, Marc Caputo bought it hook, line, and sinker. Politico is such a joke.

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Polls, even much closer to election dates, have been misguided and very wrong. Hillary's 2016 optimistic polls were obviously off because pollsters couldn't accurately include Trump's base. The polls in 2022 midterms predicted a big RED wave that didn't happen.

Today's polls and polls of polls are off for a wide variety of reasons. Probably, most probably because pollsters simply can't get a representative group of participants to answer

Telephone polls.

In the world of real voters and electoral participants, Joe Biden had been an outstanding president a decent human being and admirable role model for America. Trump has been the opposite on every leadership metric.

Joe Biden has six months to continue improving the economy, beat back the fascist right wing in Israel, get good grades for the decline in illegal immigration.

Go Joe. You're going to win by more in 2024 than you did in 2020. The GOP will collapse and start to reconstruct itself as a reasonable co-governing party.

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May 15·edited May 15

Actually, Hillary’s 2016 polls, which showed her way ahead, were probably rather accurate. *However*, thorough analyses by Prof. Sam Wang and others clearly show a decisive swing in the polls that coincides with FBI Director Comey announcing a renewed investigation into her emails.

Also, don’t forget: Hillary actually WON the popular vote by an impressive 2,864,974 votes!

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To this day I blame Comey for his irresponsible, unprofessional and maybe deliberate announcement regarding his belief ( unfounded as it was) about investigating her and her emails small potatoes as that was.

He gave us Trump and all the evil attached to him.

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I also blame the monomanic focus on her emails by large swathes of the "news" media, led by The New York Times. Very questionable and nefarious editorial decisions, in my opinion.

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author

The polls weren't wrong in 2016. The election changed. Comey changed it.

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I can still remember seeing that headline on my phone about the letter, and feeling a very prominent shudder reverberate through my body. Can remember my mom texting me just say hi & my first reply was..." I hate James Comey"

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Thanks for reminding me re. Comey's last minute effort to tilt the election in Trump's favor. And Hillary's favorable polling wasn't off since she won the popular vote. Let's make sure that doesn't happen to Biden by losing the swing states.

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Something that seems to be flying under the analysis of the battleground state results from the NYT/Siena poll is that they are pushing the results that force a two-way choice, which I think its misrepresenting a lot of the "wandering" of our electorate that Simon has described.

Take Arizona - the graph with the topline result that the NYT highlights has it Biden 42 - Trump 49, which is the results of "If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward"

However, when they asked Arizonans "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:" and then include the longer list of candidates, you get:

Biden - 33%

Trump - 42%

Other candidates - 13%

Not going to vote - 3%

Don't know / refused - 9%

That's 25% of the electorate that hasn't settled on Trump or Biden. To me, that speaks to a lot of people that are early in the voting process because the election isn't until the fall.

Do we have work to do? Yes, absolutely. But there's a huge difference between being at 42% and being at 49% of the vote share and it doesn't seem like any of this locked in.

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In this thread I linked to a post on daily kos where a poster really destroyed NYT polls on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the thread is called The NYT poll a tale of 3 cities mainly Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia where the NYT polling is completely against not just historical norms but recent elections and primaries . It's very illuminating

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Miracle in Florida: 45 uncontested districts are down to five:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/15/2240465/-Miracle-in-Florida-45-Uncontested-Districts-are-Down-to-Five

They need funding for the filing fee $1,800, plus A modest amount for a basic campaign.

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I bet the reproductive health initiative plays a part in this. Many women are fed up. Similar things are happening in Tennessee too

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We are a Miracle in Florida. It is happening. Approximately 47 UNCONTESTED Republican candidates in Florida will be contested by Democats come June 10. Our activist group (No real Name) but we sometimes go by 140FloridaBlue has recruited and filled almost every one of these seat.s We have about 5 to go! This is a big state folks... if you have never visited. Kudos to all the HERO candidates throughout Florida who will run "bare bones" campaigns in order to get out the Democrats to Vote for Joe Biden, elect a new Democratic Senator, pass Amendment 4 for Women's reproductive Rights and more. Republicans will have to spend the money to defend their seats. So, anyone who is able to help financially at any level will be greatly appreciated. It does cost $1800 just to file as a State candidate in Florida. We have recruited a wide array of candidates from all walks of life. No Republican will be uncontested in Florida.

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Wow WoW Wow 🤯🤯🤯

Mind blowing, Florida!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Thank you,Marge, and 140FloridaBlue for all your work in FL! 😎Just donated.

Would you be able to share the 5 seats ?

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I vote to discard data of little import, until I can be told what value I missed. If a poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.1%, and 1000 responders show a 1% favorite, I vote to not include this poll in the reporting of polls. What is the value? That poll says your guess is as good as mine. Have I missed something? I want to see polls outside of the margin of error.

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May 15·edited May 15

Perhaps the value arises when you consider all good-quality polls together, rather than isolated – in other words, do a meta-analysis.

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Big Village was my sample.

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Virtually all polls showed that Angela Alsobrooks would lose by 3 points or more! Instead, she beat Trone by 10 percentage points!

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The problem with that is that in a close competitive election you would only see outliers, which would leave you with less accurate data, not more accurate data

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Hi Simon - can you expand on “registered voter” polling vs “likely voter” polling and which is more or less accurate? I ask because to my thinking and maybe others, registered voters seem to be a more reliable measurement of the electorate. But I could be wrong- and I would be very happy to be wrong on this one!

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Around 85 to 90 % of registered voters show up to vote but the 10-15 percent that don't are what swings the election.

At least I think im right on this

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