Charles, I am taking this post down because it has false information in it posted without backup. I hope you understand. If you want to repost this backing up some of these claims with data feel free to do so. Thank you.
Dark Brandon was terrific at this year’s White House Correspondents Dinner – and awesome during his State of the Union Speech! I also love the way the Biden-Harris campaign is trolling Trump on his own "Truth Social", mostly by simply quoting Republican politicians and right-wing newscasters.
I'm having a tough time convincing some advocacy groups that Florida is now a swing state.
Republicans did us a favor by enacting the six week abortion ban, putting abortion (and marijuana) on the ballot. 80% of all women oppose. 30 electoral votes. Trump won the state by 3.2% in 2020. If we flip 2% we win. IMHO there may be enough disgruntled Republicans to do it, but just in case, most of the unregistered, and the more than 3 million "no party" are women, trending at 80%.
They turned us from a red to a purple state verging blue. Perhaps a million unregistered folks trend heavily Democratic. Register Democrats, save the world.
It is critical for women in Florida to be registered to vote for this election, and to vote YES on Amendment 4, which will restore and protect abortion rights in Florida. I urge people to become active in this effort. FieldTeam6.org is the way to do this. I just received my postcards, which I am sending to unregistered women in Florida. It will make a difference!
Me too! My friend and I have sent postcards for Pa and Az through BlueWave Campaigns but excited to be working on PCs that will be sent out to voters this fall. 💃🏻
Daniel, I agree there is an opportunity for Democrats in Florida this November, especially with abortion and marijuana rights on the ballot. In fact, I believe there is a two-fold opportunity - - President and US Senate. Trump and Rick Scott are clearly on the wrong side of both issues. Further, Scott's favorability rating in Florida is only 37%. He's also on the wrong side of Medicare and Social Security in a state filled with such recipients. With respect to Trump and all his "uglines, there is a definite warning sign. One we have seen in virtually every other state. That is, he received just 81% of the vote in the Florida primary. Almost 200,000 people did not vote for him. Also, Trump's dictatorial desire is definitely a turn off for the state's large number of Latino voters, especially in South Florida. Biden winning Florida would be an early knockout blow!
I wonder how so many corporations invest in their own funds so that it displays incredible growth. Not to mention the money gains they make when doing this. I’m sure many people gain as well, however, it was just a thought.
Two key primary elections today. Tonight, we’ll find out who our Democratic candidates for Senate are in Maryland and West Virginia. In Maryland, either Angela Alsobrooks or David Trone will be running against former Republican governor Larry Hogan. And in West Virginia, Democratic voters will choose Zach Shrewsbury, Don Blankenship or Glenn Elliot to run against the favored candidate, Governor Jim Justice.
Worth noting: Blankenship is a former Republican and a convicted violator of mine safety regulations, after 29 people died in his coal mine. Glenn Elliot is the candidate endorsed by retiring Senator Joe Manchin. Jim Justice is a former Democrat who announced his switch to Republican at a Trump rally in 2017. In this deep red state, Justice is the odds-on favorite.
These races, especially Maryland, may be consequential as Democrats try to hold the Senate.
Meanwhile, in Washington state, Bob Ferguson is the favored gubernatorial candidate – despite running against Bob Ferguson and Bob Ferguson. You read that right! Three candidates with the same name. The real Bob Ferguson is a Democrat serving as attorney general; the other two are namesakes and recent GOP recruits. A nice little Republican trick, huh?
Holy cow. As a former WA resident I find this appalling! Especially with the political gulf between the eastern and western sides of the state, I wonder how this will play out. I hope the Dems find a clever way to make their BF stand out and be the clear choice. Despite the party designation on the ballot that should make it clear, the R's wouldn't do this if they didn't think the impact would matter.
Thank you Simon. It's been a tough week personally and clickbait headlines from legacy media aren't helping, But you help keep me grounded and focused on the prize. I was working on postcards at 5am this morning before starting my crazy day.
It doesn’t make sense, does it? And, that’s a really good sign for us. I think polling is broken and that people are really, really checked out from politics and that it’s fun for respondents to be contrarian and say they want Trump back. But, when things get real - later this summer - this will change. I went to vote today in Maryland in my very activist and very blue town and there was literally no one at my polling place (at 9 am). I was the only voter! I guarantee when Trump is on the ballot that place - and other polling places - will be jammed. It’s just the start of the game. Keep the faith.
Do you have any data on early voting? IIRC MD has 8-days of early voting. I'm in NC that has 18-days of early voting including three Satudays and one Sunday afternoon. Normally we get anywhere from 30 - 40 % of the total votes from early voting.
And 8:30 - 9:30 is IMO the sweet spot for the shortest lines. People who work oustside the home generally vote earlier (or after work in the evening) and SAH parents and retirees usually wait until ~10 am to go vote.
My limited understanding about the 1864 law outlawing all abortions, despite being repealed by the state legislature and Gov Hobbs, is that it still will go into effect on June 1st. There was no emergency override in the bill that would have prevented the 1864 law from being enforced as it would have required even more Republican votes. The total abortion ban will be law for at least 90 days after the AZ legislature ends its session. While the session is scheduled to end on May 31st, there is no guarantee it will end then, and Republicans hold majorities in both chambers. Republicans, naturally, are going all out and placing a bunch of antiabortion referenda on the November ballot to prevent Roe becoming law, mostly by confusing voters.
So many people are worried about AZ going for Trump. I believe even if the total abortion ban lasts only 3 months, it will be enough to recapture voters attention. Am I wrong? About any of this, because it’s not being reported on much anymore so my information, aside from the 15 week abortion ban restoration, is dated.
AG Mayes has gotten a 90 day stay on the 1864 law to give her time to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. This will use up at least some of the time that the law would be in effect before its repeal becomes law. As to your other comment, I expect that having the abortion access amendment on the ballot will indeed help our turnout. And while the other side may refer alternative abortion initiatives to the ballot, that isn't assured - they have such a small margin in the legislature that differences between them (for instance, some really like the 1864 total ban and some want something else) may block this.
I wish I had a complete answer to your questions. What I currently understand to be true is your 90 days post session. And their sessions have lasted until July. Which means that old law would be in place those 90 days and then the previous 15 week abortion law would then replace it. The Arizona Supreme Court has just stayed the 1864 laws initiation for 90 days after Gov Hobbs signed but that may not be for enough time to counter it completely. ( in case legislative session lengthy) The AG is discussing other option; possibly another stay by the United State Supreme Court.
As for Az going for Trump I have family there and have researched what’s happened with Az these past elections. So I have hope. Huge changes toward a purple state; a Biden win in the past election cycles. Much to the shock and anger of the Az GOP. My travels there showed areas to be full MAGA land; banners, signs, etc. So I was shocked to learn Biden won there. And Hobbs and AG. Due in large part to the hidden power of hardworking partnerships.
First, in short, the GOP party in Az is a hot mess bc of in-fighting,lack of funds and law suits filed against them following the last election. And now they have many GOP players indicted for their part in the false elector plot. And they have Kari Lake who has sued and sued to support her election denialism. And caused their GOP party Chair to vacate his position by stating he had tried to “ bribe” her to dropping her suits. She is their current star MAGA candidate pro-anti abortion flipper; fully documented trying to play both sides and now trying to dump on GOV Hobbs to settle the issue.
And now Arizona just added the abortion restrictions to their voters to make matters worse and more challenging for GOP. Clearly exposing what the minority party wants to lay on the majority.
In the meantime the Democratic grassroots groups have been enormously engaged and determined. They’ve formed coalitions and reached out to national groups. They’ve partnered with their Latino and Native American tribal groups to maintain their gains and build even more. They’ve tapped youth voter groups working with The Civic Center to develop student voter registration in 100% of High Schools! Kari Lake trailing Gallegos,a great Dem candidate. So much activity! I pray it will be enough 🙏🏻
Arizona civic democratic activism is on fire 🔥!!! 🔥 🔥 🔥 It’s being called “ Ground Zero” for 2024 elections.
If Democrats there don’t win it won’t be bc they haven’t worked to make it so!
I listened to that, and I gotta say, the guy left me unimpressed. I did not feel better after listening. Better analysis right here. I want to see confidence in our team, and that guy did not sound confident to me. That said, I will freely admit that could just be my own bias.
That's an excellent discussion and I thank you. After suffering from reading the meltdowns on Dkos, it was a welcome analysis. I have to follow that guy more often.
They did GA and VA for the primaries. Their mission is outreach to BIPOC voters in traditionally "Jim Crow" states - VA, NC, SC, GA, and AL. But I believe they may also be getting into TX this year.
I've written postcards with them - in 2023 for VA, and for the 2024 GA primary. I have heard from the NC coordinator that there will be 2 campaigns -an early campaign to "pledge to vote" which will start later this week and a second GOTV campaign closer to the election.
Thank you. I’m especially glad to see they’re engaged in North Carolina. Does BIPOC include Hispanic / Latine voters (many of whom are as pale as I am)?
When I lived in California, Chicano was a term, but it’s years since I have seen it in print in any political discussion.
(Asking on behalf of an orange, thin-skinned New Yorker currently living in exile in Florida – but who has been dragged back to face criminal charges, stormy weather inside an ice-cold courtroom, and a whole host of witnesses that he shafted, in many instances more than once.)
About the NYT polling for AZ: NYT polling here has Rep. Gallego significantly ahead of Lake. I really have difficulty imagining the voter who would vote for Gallego and then for Trump. It often goes the other way - disaffected Republicans here might vote against Trump at the top and then return to their usual party affiliation somewhere down ballot.
I agree with Barry S that you keep me sane. I quote you often and remind people that hard work over these next six months will push us to the win.
I so appreciate your update on Ukraine today and the video. So moving. I want to start highlighting Ukraine in my feed since it seems off the radar screen of the public and the media. Can I share the video?
Suggest y'all catch up with congressman Gabe Vasquez (D NM CD2) who won the closest of all House races in 2022 and is getting a fabulous amount of work done, especially bills with Republican co-sponsors. Check out his websites or bluecd2nm, a PAC created to remove his predecessor. https://www.bluecd2nm.com/https://vasquez.house.gov/https://gabeforcongress.com/
He was raised on both sides of the border, and his proposals make more sense than anything else I know.
Title of an article in the New Republic: Alarmed by the Trump Surge? "The Democrats have a Joe Biden Problem"... goes on to state that it "might be time for a drastic change." Sorry but, I could just cry.
Charles, I am taking this post down because it has false information in it posted without backup. I hope you understand. If you want to repost this backing up some of these claims with data feel free to do so. Thank you.
Dark Brandon was terrific at this year’s White House Correspondents Dinner – and awesome during his State of the Union Speech! I also love the way the Biden-Harris campaign is trolling Trump on his own "Truth Social", mostly by simply quoting Republican politicians and right-wing newscasters.
https://truthsocial.com/@BidenHQ/
Keeping us sane. Thanks Simon!
I'm having a tough time convincing some advocacy groups that Florida is now a swing state.
Republicans did us a favor by enacting the six week abortion ban, putting abortion (and marijuana) on the ballot. 80% of all women oppose. 30 electoral votes. Trump won the state by 3.2% in 2020. If we flip 2% we win. IMHO there may be enough disgruntled Republicans to do it, but just in case, most of the unregistered, and the more than 3 million "no party" are women, trending at 80%.
They turned us from a red to a purple state verging blue. Perhaps a million unregistered folks trend heavily Democratic. Register Democrats, save the world.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Thank you, Daniel.
It is critical for women in Florida to be registered to vote for this election, and to vote YES on Amendment 4, which will restore and protect abortion rights in Florida. I urge people to become active in this effort. FieldTeam6.org is the way to do this. I just received my postcards, which I am sending to unregistered women in Florida. It will make a difference!
Fladems is on board. We're sending postcards, and I'm texting, and make calls.
We need help from groups like Galvanize that are not in Florida. https://www.galvanizeusa.org/
https://www.forcemultiplierus.org/
I think there is a fair chance to send Scott back to his cave.
Postcards to Swing States is on board !💙 the design on the Florida postcard.
https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/
Field Team Six has a Florida text arcade this Thursday, 16th.
“A Text Arcade is a super-fast text bank that costs $25 a ticket. 100% of your ticket price goes to funding your 1,400 texts.”
https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops
I’ve just joined Postcards to Swing States!
Me too! My friend and I have sent postcards for Pa and Az through BlueWave Campaigns but excited to be working on PCs that will be sent out to voters this fall. 💃🏻
Wish you were right. Afraid you’re not. Florida has broken the hearts of democratic campaigns forever.
Never up, never in.
Daniel, I agree there is an opportunity for Democrats in Florida this November, especially with abortion and marijuana rights on the ballot. In fact, I believe there is a two-fold opportunity - - President and US Senate. Trump and Rick Scott are clearly on the wrong side of both issues. Further, Scott's favorability rating in Florida is only 37%. He's also on the wrong side of Medicare and Social Security in a state filled with such recipients. With respect to Trump and all his "uglines, there is a definite warning sign. One we have seen in virtually every other state. That is, he received just 81% of the vote in the Florida primary. Almost 200,000 people did not vote for him. Also, Trump's dictatorial desire is definitely a turn off for the state's large number of Latino voters, especially in South Florida. Biden winning Florida would be an early knockout blow!
I wonder how so many corporations invest in their own funds so that it displays incredible growth. Not to mention the money gains they make when doing this. I’m sure many people gain as well, however, it was just a thought.
Two key primary elections today. Tonight, we’ll find out who our Democratic candidates for Senate are in Maryland and West Virginia. In Maryland, either Angela Alsobrooks or David Trone will be running against former Republican governor Larry Hogan. And in West Virginia, Democratic voters will choose Zach Shrewsbury, Don Blankenship or Glenn Elliot to run against the favored candidate, Governor Jim Justice.
Worth noting: Blankenship is a former Republican and a convicted violator of mine safety regulations, after 29 people died in his coal mine. Glenn Elliot is the candidate endorsed by retiring Senator Joe Manchin. Jim Justice is a former Democrat who announced his switch to Republican at a Trump rally in 2017. In this deep red state, Justice is the odds-on favorite.
These races, especially Maryland, may be consequential as Democrats try to hold the Senate.
Meanwhile, in Washington state, Bob Ferguson is the favored gubernatorial candidate – despite running against Bob Ferguson and Bob Ferguson. You read that right! Three candidates with the same name. The real Bob Ferguson is a Democrat serving as attorney general; the other two are namesakes and recent GOP recruits. A nice little Republican trick, huh?
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/13/2240552/-Washington-State-s-Governor-Race-Takes-Bizarre-Turn
Holy cow. As a former WA resident I find this appalling! Especially with the political gulf between the eastern and western sides of the state, I wonder how this will play out. I hope the Dems find a clever way to make their BF stand out and be the clear choice. Despite the party designation on the ballot that should make it clear, the R's wouldn't do this if they didn't think the impact would matter.
Well it’s more that they know the only way for a R to win statewide in Washington state is to trick people. We are not that dumb though.
Thank you Simon. It's been a tough week personally and clickbait headlines from legacy media aren't helping, But you help keep me grounded and focused on the prize. I was working on postcards at 5am this morning before starting my crazy day.
I've yet to find any cogent explanation as to why this election is even close.
It doesn’t make sense, does it? And, that’s a really good sign for us. I think polling is broken and that people are really, really checked out from politics and that it’s fun for respondents to be contrarian and say they want Trump back. But, when things get real - later this summer - this will change. I went to vote today in Maryland in my very activist and very blue town and there was literally no one at my polling place (at 9 am). I was the only voter! I guarantee when Trump is on the ballot that place - and other polling places - will be jammed. It’s just the start of the game. Keep the faith.
Do you have any data on early voting? IIRC MD has 8-days of early voting. I'm in NC that has 18-days of early voting including three Satudays and one Sunday afternoon. Normally we get anywhere from 30 - 40 % of the total votes from early voting.
And 8:30 - 9:30 is IMO the sweet spot for the shortest lines. People who work oustside the home generally vote earlier (or after work in the evening) and SAH parents and retirees usually wait until ~10 am to go vote.
Good point about the time - maybe that was it! I’ve never seen it so empty thought. We’ll have record turnout again in November - I’m sure.
Thank you! I do believe we're going to have a monstrous blue wave but even so ...
Questions about AZ…
My limited understanding about the 1864 law outlawing all abortions, despite being repealed by the state legislature and Gov Hobbs, is that it still will go into effect on June 1st. There was no emergency override in the bill that would have prevented the 1864 law from being enforced as it would have required even more Republican votes. The total abortion ban will be law for at least 90 days after the AZ legislature ends its session. While the session is scheduled to end on May 31st, there is no guarantee it will end then, and Republicans hold majorities in both chambers. Republicans, naturally, are going all out and placing a bunch of antiabortion referenda on the November ballot to prevent Roe becoming law, mostly by confusing voters.
So many people are worried about AZ going for Trump. I believe even if the total abortion ban lasts only 3 months, it will be enough to recapture voters attention. Am I wrong? About any of this, because it’s not being reported on much anymore so my information, aside from the 15 week abortion ban restoration, is dated.
AG Mayes has gotten a 90 day stay on the 1864 law to give her time to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. This will use up at least some of the time that the law would be in effect before its repeal becomes law. As to your other comment, I expect that having the abortion access amendment on the ballot will indeed help our turnout. And while the other side may refer alternative abortion initiatives to the ballot, that isn't assured - they have such a small margin in the legislature that differences between them (for instance, some really like the 1864 total ban and some want something else) may block this.
Thank you for the update!
Hi Angela,
I wish I had a complete answer to your questions. What I currently understand to be true is your 90 days post session. And their sessions have lasted until July. Which means that old law would be in place those 90 days and then the previous 15 week abortion law would then replace it. The Arizona Supreme Court has just stayed the 1864 laws initiation for 90 days after Gov Hobbs signed but that may not be for enough time to counter it completely. ( in case legislative session lengthy) The AG is discussing other option; possibly another stay by the United State Supreme Court.
As for Az going for Trump I have family there and have researched what’s happened with Az these past elections. So I have hope. Huge changes toward a purple state; a Biden win in the past election cycles. Much to the shock and anger of the Az GOP. My travels there showed areas to be full MAGA land; banners, signs, etc. So I was shocked to learn Biden won there. And Hobbs and AG. Due in large part to the hidden power of hardworking partnerships.
First, in short, the GOP party in Az is a hot mess bc of in-fighting,lack of funds and law suits filed against them following the last election. And now they have many GOP players indicted for their part in the false elector plot. And they have Kari Lake who has sued and sued to support her election denialism. And caused their GOP party Chair to vacate his position by stating he had tried to “ bribe” her to dropping her suits. She is their current star MAGA candidate pro-anti abortion flipper; fully documented trying to play both sides and now trying to dump on GOV Hobbs to settle the issue.
And now Arizona just added the abortion restrictions to their voters to make matters worse and more challenging for GOP. Clearly exposing what the minority party wants to lay on the majority.
In the meantime the Democratic grassroots groups have been enormously engaged and determined. They’ve formed coalitions and reached out to national groups. They’ve partnered with their Latino and Native American tribal groups to maintain their gains and build even more. They’ve tapped youth voter groups working with The Civic Center to develop student voter registration in 100% of High Schools! Kari Lake trailing Gallegos,a great Dem candidate. So much activity! I pray it will be enough 🙏🏻
Arizona civic democratic activism is on fire 🔥!!! 🔥 🔥 🔥 It’s being called “ Ground Zero” for 2024 elections.
If Democrats there don’t win it won’t be bc they haven’t worked to make it so!
My vote would be with them, not the other guy.
Check out this podcast from Greg Sargent called the Daily Blast:
Alarmed By Trump’s Scary New Polling Lead? Listen To Biden’s Data Guy.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily-blast-with-greg-sargent/id1728152109
I listened to that, and I gotta say, the guy left me unimpressed. I did not feel better after listening. Better analysis right here. I want to see confidence in our team, and that guy did not sound confident to me. That said, I will freely admit that could just be my own bias.
Maybe today's Status Quo will be more to your taste - and Simon is cross linked several times:
https://open.substack.com/pub/statuskuo/p/do-better-new-york-times?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
That's an excellent discussion and I thank you. After suffering from reading the meltdowns on Dkos, it was a welcome analysis. I have to follow that guy more often.
The Center for Commoin Ground is having an update on Thurs at 8pm for two of their target States, GA and NC. You can sign up here:
https://actionnetwork.org/events/center-for-common-ground-2024-georgia-primaries-update-may-16
I am curious, what are their other target states / races this year?
They did GA and VA for the primaries. Their mission is outreach to BIPOC voters in traditionally "Jim Crow" states - VA, NC, SC, GA, and AL. But I believe they may also be getting into TX this year.
I've written postcards with them - in 2023 for VA, and for the 2024 GA primary. I have heard from the NC coordinator that there will be 2 campaigns -an early campaign to "pledge to vote" which will start later this week and a second GOTV campaign closer to the election.
Thank you. I’m especially glad to see they’re engaged in North Carolina. Does BIPOC include Hispanic / Latine voters (many of whom are as pale as I am)?
When I lived in California, Chicano was a term, but it’s years since I have seen it in print in any political discussion.
Also, does BIPOC include people of Orange hue?
(Asking on behalf of an orange, thin-skinned New Yorker currently living in exile in Florida – but who has been dragged back to face criminal charges, stormy weather inside an ice-cold courtroom, and a whole host of witnesses that he shafted, in many instances more than once.)
CFCG is also targeting Florida.Should be getting my addresses soon.
Here is another interesting post from the Politics NC substack:
https://open.substack.com/pub/politicsnc/p/break-the-republican-brand?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
About the NYT polling for AZ: NYT polling here has Rep. Gallego significantly ahead of Lake. I really have difficulty imagining the voter who would vote for Gallego and then for Trump. It often goes the other way - disaffected Republicans here might vote against Trump at the top and then return to their usual party affiliation somewhere down ballot.
I agree with Barry S that you keep me sane. I quote you often and remind people that hard work over these next six months will push us to the win.
I so appreciate your update on Ukraine today and the video. So moving. I want to start highlighting Ukraine in my feed since it seems off the radar screen of the public and the media. Can I share the video?
Suggest y'all catch up with congressman Gabe Vasquez (D NM CD2) who won the closest of all House races in 2022 and is getting a fabulous amount of work done, especially bills with Republican co-sponsors. Check out his websites or bluecd2nm, a PAC created to remove his predecessor. https://www.bluecd2nm.com/ https://vasquez.house.gov/ https://gabeforcongress.com/
He was raised on both sides of the border, and his proposals make more sense than anything else I know.
Title of an article in the New Republic: Alarmed by the Trump Surge? "The Democrats have a Joe Biden Problem"... goes on to state that it "might be time for a drastic change." Sorry but, I could just cry.
Yes. I cancelled mine. It seems the Left has an axe to grind - at the worst possible time. We're not as smart as we think we are.
What's the problem? Competence? I just don't get it.
Et tu, New Republic ?! Well, another publication that doesn't need my money!