I think Oliver Willis is onto something when he says we don't really "need" the GOP to go back to business as usual - repealing child labor laws, denying food stamps to struggling families, etc. That's abhorrent too, so why are we asking for that? He proposes something altogether different. https://www.oliverexplains.com/p/we-dont-actually-need-conservatism
That was a very interesting article. I read a book called Viking Economics a year or so ago and it was a real eye-opener. The writer was married to a Norwegian woman and spent a lot of time in Norway. It is a delightful book and since I'd been running into happy Norwegians all summer I was intrigued to learn how their governmental system operates. There are a lot of wealthy Norwegians in Norway, thus putting the lie to the "It's socialism," bugaboo of the Republicans. It is by no means a perfect system, but there is certainly a great deal to be learned from breaking the Liberal/Conservative deadlock.
I agree and have been saying the same for years; it strikes me as phony when pols say we need a strong R party. We do not need them at all. They bring nothing to the table for a modern civilization.
I am not sure that a healthy conservatism should/could be equated with the American Republican party for the reasons that you specify. Recognizing and providing for a strong national defense, strong and sustainable fiscal policy and reasonable border controls (debate about what that means) - this is what I mean when I think of a center-right viewpoint. My two cents. I will read the article that you cite, thanks for sharing it.
I just left a voice mail on the phone number listed on his campaign website to make sure that they were aware of the issue. It could be a tech hiccup, but it could also be malicious intent. I honestly wouldn't put much past the Republicans. They are already sending the SWAT team out to harrass judges and phoning in bomb threats....
As an aside, years ago, a coworker who was separated from her husband came home to find her power had been cut off. Her soon-to-be-ex had access to all her personal information (date of birth, SSN, etc.) and the power company therefore thought it was legitimate.
Florida law prohibits contributions to state legislative races in the final 5 days of the campaign. That's why we can no longer give. Didn't know that - now we do!
The rules for contributions for state candidates can be very different than Federal. I know some states don't let politicians fund raise when the Legislature is in session.
Simon: I hope you will address the third party issue that, unfortunately, continues to raise its head. I have a very good and knowledgeable friend who wrote me pushing back on the polling analysis that you and Tom so expertly have reported on. Specifically, my friend says that current polling is showing weakness of Biden-Harris in the battleground states as one example. In addition, with Chris Christie dropping out, there is beginning to be speculation about Christie being a potential Presidential candidate for the No-Labels effort. Also, just saw polling last night on RFK, Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West, which the media has frankly given a varied and mixed explanation. Your remarks on this next Wednesday would be timely and appreciated. Thank you. David Howlett
The 3rd party candidates exist only to weaken Biden; that is what polling shows and that is why they are getting their funding from right wing sources. RFK draws a little from trump, probably because he is also a nutjob. We have a good economy that is the envy of the world, so things you might not otherwise pay attention to, like South Africa taking Israel to ICJ, or Andrea Mitchell putting Blinken on the spot for the deaths of journalists ( too many people view Israel as a puppet regime of the US, which is frankly BS ) will get full attention because these things weaken Biden. The Sec of Defense fiasco is getting a lot of attention too ( and this really is a serious screw up, with no way to sugarcoat it ) though the feeling is even the crazy Rs in the House don't think it is "sexy" enough of an issue to investigate seriously, where it is actually the one thing Biden can really be called out for. Good thing for us they are focused on Hunter's peccadilloes. Listening the BBC this morning they seemed speechless that Biden was so far behind in states like MI, a state that has seen strong Dem turnout recently. I'm a bit baffled as well. They speculated that "it's the economy stupid" no longer works.
Thanks for sharing that info from the BBC. I also do not understand why Biden/Harris seems to be so underwater, vis-a-vis Trump in Michigan. Could be because the Democrats won both branches of the state house in 2022 and Governor Whitmer got re-elected AND lots of people are upset about inflation or something? - in short they are angry and blame all Democrats?
PianoManSteve posted about a new poll with Biden up again by 3. We can't live and die by the polls, but the media seems hell bent on highlighting any polls that show trump ahead. It does seem like they get some perverse pleasure out of this. I hear Joshua Green, the journalist, admits that covering Steve Bannon and trump in 2016 was sort of the highlight of his career. That kind of attitude is partly what we are up against. I spend a lot of time right here in "blue" NJ countering the nonsense, and I do it on the fishing docks, which is a tough crowd; another friend preaches to his union colleagues; trump has a solid following in unions; it carries more weight when one of their own counters the BS. I don't let anything pass, not at the grocery store, not on the docks, not at a family gathering. Keep it calm, recite the same set of facts. Don't fall for the "whatabout" traps.
Good points - I think that having people who had credibility with their peers, push back against the negative press, etc. is important. Thanks for doing this!
I just updated the post from yesterday to include new polling data. We now have polls this week showing Biden up in 3 important states:
MI - 45%-41% (+4)
NH - 42%-34% (+8)
PA - 49%-46% (+3)
Nationally - Morning Consult 43%-42% - gain of 3 pts in past week
Biden's leads in these 3 state polls larger than his 2020 win margin.
Trump is not leading; it is early; the Biden campaign just turned on; and there are as many polls showing Biden leading nationally and in the battlegrounds. We have work to do, no doubt, but we are not in bad shape or in trouble.
Thank you for this! Wish I'd had this yesterday when the MI meltdown happened on another site. People are still traumatized from 2016. That's going to sting for years on end. But we have to move forward. We don't have anything to apologize for. Biden is a good president.
So, amazingly, the Keen campaign is no longer able to take donations. The last time to be able to give was last night at 1159pm. Have never heard of that before. Thanks everyone for trying. S
🤔 Do you think it’s a state law that got recently changed? God knows the GOP gets all their money up front from their oligarchs and this could be “reform” designed to degrade grassroots fundraising that Democrats are excelling in lately....weird
Loved Kissinger's remarks. "In a heartbeat." It should be that way for all of us. What the Republicans are doing is anyone's guess, but whatever their goal it is bad for America and democracy. These folks are either completely ignorant, getting funding from Russian oligarchs, or (in my worst nightmare) so wedded to the apocalyptic vision of the rapture shared by fundamentalist Christians that the Rapture is supposed to occur in the Middle East, therefore bring it on so they can be "SAVED". What can we do to counter this?
The Biden campaign is grappling with a stubborn reality: The majority of undecided voters simply do not seem to believe – at least not yet – that Donald Trump is likely to be the GOP nominee (nearly 3 in 4, per internal campaign research)
Thanks for that; explains some of it, but not these polls with trump way ahead. No thinking person could look at trump and think he is a better choice.
I haven’t seen any polls with Trump way ahead that didn’t have pretty sketchy methodologies. I’ve seen some solid polling showing them close… I think it’s possible right now for a poll to show Trump up by a point or two and be accurate within the margin of error with where the electorate is and it’s awareness of what’s happening… But anything showing him approaching anywhere near 50%, I take with a huge grain of salt, and it usually has really stupid shit going on like only polling young voters with cell phone calls and not any online or text message surveys
MI poll....trump up big and 3rd party candidates up even more according to the gleeful Steve Kornacki....also read about in a NH diary on DKos. Hard to believe it.
But it’s an outlier....most recent MI polls are very close and yet another dropped today with Biden up 3 there.....the race is close but our coalition is just at the very beginning of coming back together
Actblue has "fundraiser info" now for Tom Keen which lists his website, Twitter and FB addresses which refer back to ActBlue which still isn't taking donations. However, I found a post from Tom Keen from 1 day ago on his FB page saying that was the last day his campaign would be accepting donations. Curious...
By law Florida legislative races cannot accept contributions in the final 5 days of the election. Not sure any other state has this law. Why folks can no longer give.
A relative said yesterday that the migrant crisis is going to lose Biden the election. It's WAY TOO EARLY to be saying this kind of thing. BUT... what is/are your talking point(s) on the migrant crisis, and also what do you say when people make these kind of absurd predictions 10 months out (but aren't doing anything to help matters).
I think Oliver Willis is onto something when he says we don't really "need" the GOP to go back to business as usual - repealing child labor laws, denying food stamps to struggling families, etc. That's abhorrent too, so why are we asking for that? He proposes something altogether different. https://www.oliverexplains.com/p/we-dont-actually-need-conservatism
That was a very interesting article. I read a book called Viking Economics a year or so ago and it was a real eye-opener. The writer was married to a Norwegian woman and spent a lot of time in Norway. It is a delightful book and since I'd been running into happy Norwegians all summer I was intrigued to learn how their governmental system operates. There are a lot of wealthy Norwegians in Norway, thus putting the lie to the "It's socialism," bugaboo of the Republicans. It is by no means a perfect system, but there is certainly a great deal to be learned from breaking the Liberal/Conservative deadlock.
I will put it on my reading list, thanks!
I agree and have been saying the same for years; it strikes me as phony when pols say we need a strong R party. We do not need them at all. They bring nothing to the table for a modern civilization.
I am not sure that a healthy conservatism should/could be equated with the American Republican party for the reasons that you specify. Recognizing and providing for a strong national defense, strong and sustainable fiscal policy and reasonable border controls (debate about what that means) - this is what I mean when I think of a center-right viewpoint. My two cents. I will read the article that you cite, thanks for sharing it.
Donate link to ActBlue for Tom Keen says it's not currently accepting donations. Tried a couple of times same message. ???
I got the same.
I just left a voice mail on the phone number listed on his campaign website to make sure that they were aware of the issue. It could be a tech hiccup, but it could also be malicious intent. I honestly wouldn't put much past the Republicans. They are already sending the SWAT team out to harrass judges and phoning in bomb threats....
As an aside, years ago, a coworker who was separated from her husband came home to find her power had been cut off. Her soon-to-be-ex had access to all her personal information (date of birth, SSN, etc.) and the power company therefore thought it was legitimate.
Florida law prohibits contributions to state legislative races in the final 5 days of the campaign. That's why we can no longer give. Didn't know that - now we do!
The rules for contributions for state candidates can be very different than Federal. I know some states don't let politicians fund raise when the Legislature is in session.
Simon: I hope you will address the third party issue that, unfortunately, continues to raise its head. I have a very good and knowledgeable friend who wrote me pushing back on the polling analysis that you and Tom so expertly have reported on. Specifically, my friend says that current polling is showing weakness of Biden-Harris in the battleground states as one example. In addition, with Chris Christie dropping out, there is beginning to be speculation about Christie being a potential Presidential candidate for the No-Labels effort. Also, just saw polling last night on RFK, Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West, which the media has frankly given a varied and mixed explanation. Your remarks on this next Wednesday would be timely and appreciated. Thank you. David Howlett
The 3rd party candidates exist only to weaken Biden; that is what polling shows and that is why they are getting their funding from right wing sources. RFK draws a little from trump, probably because he is also a nutjob. We have a good economy that is the envy of the world, so things you might not otherwise pay attention to, like South Africa taking Israel to ICJ, or Andrea Mitchell putting Blinken on the spot for the deaths of journalists ( too many people view Israel as a puppet regime of the US, which is frankly BS ) will get full attention because these things weaken Biden. The Sec of Defense fiasco is getting a lot of attention too ( and this really is a serious screw up, with no way to sugarcoat it ) though the feeling is even the crazy Rs in the House don't think it is "sexy" enough of an issue to investigate seriously, where it is actually the one thing Biden can really be called out for. Good thing for us they are focused on Hunter's peccadilloes. Listening the BBC this morning they seemed speechless that Biden was so far behind in states like MI, a state that has seen strong Dem turnout recently. I'm a bit baffled as well. They speculated that "it's the economy stupid" no longer works.
Thanks for sharing that info from the BBC. I also do not understand why Biden/Harris seems to be so underwater, vis-a-vis Trump in Michigan. Could be because the Democrats won both branches of the state house in 2022 and Governor Whitmer got re-elected AND lots of people are upset about inflation or something? - in short they are angry and blame all Democrats?
PianoManSteve posted about a new poll with Biden up again by 3. We can't live and die by the polls, but the media seems hell bent on highlighting any polls that show trump ahead. It does seem like they get some perverse pleasure out of this. I hear Joshua Green, the journalist, admits that covering Steve Bannon and trump in 2016 was sort of the highlight of his career. That kind of attitude is partly what we are up against. I spend a lot of time right here in "blue" NJ countering the nonsense, and I do it on the fishing docks, which is a tough crowd; another friend preaches to his union colleagues; trump has a solid following in unions; it carries more weight when one of their own counters the BS. I don't let anything pass, not at the grocery store, not on the docks, not at a family gathering. Keep it calm, recite the same set of facts. Don't fall for the "whatabout" traps.
Good points - I think that having people who had credibility with their peers, push back against the negative press, etc. is important. Thanks for doing this!
I just updated the post from yesterday to include new polling data. We now have polls this week showing Biden up in 3 important states:
MI - 45%-41% (+4)
NH - 42%-34% (+8)
PA - 49%-46% (+3)
Nationally - Morning Consult 43%-42% - gain of 3 pts in past week
Biden's leads in these 3 state polls larger than his 2020 win margin.
Trump is not leading; it is early; the Biden campaign just turned on; and there are as many polls showing Biden leading nationally and in the battlegrounds. We have work to do, no doubt, but we are not in bad shape or in trouble.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/good-polls-in-nhpa-trump-is-a-terrible
Thank you for this! Wish I'd had this yesterday when the MI meltdown happened on another site. People are still traumatized from 2016. That's going to sting for years on end. But we have to move forward. We don't have anything to apologize for. Biden is a good president.
Simon: Thank you for the quick response. That is very helpful and will share. I look forward to the Wednesday update. David Howlett
Hi - quick note that the fundraiser for Tom Keen seems to be broken. Has it been shut down?
I thought you all might be interested in this political cartoon:
https://open.substack.com/pub/davidpepper/p/new-first-cartoon
So, amazingly, the Keen campaign is no longer able to take donations. The last time to be able to give was last night at 1159pm. Have never heard of that before. Thanks everyone for trying. S
🤔 Do you think it’s a state law that got recently changed? God knows the GOP gets all their money up front from their oligarchs and this could be “reform” designed to degrade grassroots fundraising that Democrats are excelling in lately....weird
Exactly, PianoManSteve ! “Reform” along with aiding DeSantis 💲💲💲transfer to his super PAC for presidential campaign.
That sounds #OnBrand 🤦♂️
Regarding Tom Keen, Fl law requires any contributions received 5 days prior must be returned➡️
Page 30.
https://files.floridados.gov/media/707325/candidate-and-campaign-treasurer-handbook-2024-working.pdf
Thanks for sharing that!
Loved Kissinger's remarks. "In a heartbeat." It should be that way for all of us. What the Republicans are doing is anyone's guess, but whatever their goal it is bad for America and democracy. These folks are either completely ignorant, getting funding from Russian oligarchs, or (in my worst nightmare) so wedded to the apocalyptic vision of the rapture shared by fundamentalist Christians that the Rapture is supposed to occur in the Middle East, therefore bring it on so they can be "SAVED". What can we do to counter this?
As per MJ Lee of CNN.....
The Biden campaign is grappling with a stubborn reality: The majority of undecided voters simply do not seem to believe – at least not yet – that Donald Trump is likely to be the GOP nominee (nearly 3 in 4, per internal campaign research)
https://x.com/mj_lee/status/1745859283013582882?s=20
I think this will start to improve our polling in about a month when Trump has the nomination wrapped up and people start to get it
Thanks for that; explains some of it, but not these polls with trump way ahead. No thinking person could look at trump and think he is a better choice.
I haven’t seen any polls with Trump way ahead that didn’t have pretty sketchy methodologies. I’ve seen some solid polling showing them close… I think it’s possible right now for a poll to show Trump up by a point or two and be accurate within the margin of error with where the electorate is and it’s awareness of what’s happening… But anything showing him approaching anywhere near 50%, I take with a huge grain of salt, and it usually has really stupid shit going on like only polling young voters with cell phone calls and not any online or text message surveys
MI poll....trump up big and 3rd party candidates up even more according to the gleeful Steve Kornacki....also read about in a NH diary on DKos. Hard to believe it.
But it’s an outlier....most recent MI polls are very close and yet another dropped today with Biden up 3 there.....the race is close but our coalition is just at the very beginning of coming back together
Agree with PianoManSteve here, as usual. Do more, worry less. Let's get Tom Keen elected everyone. Do more, worry less.
Regarding Tom Keen, Fl law requires any contributions received 5 days prior must be returned➡️
Page 30.
https://files.floridados.gov/media/707325/candidate-and-campaign-treasurer-handbook-2024-working.pdf
Great session on Morning Joe!
Tks
I really enjoyed it. As the cover put it, "The most fun economics book you'll ever read." Cheers.
Actblue has "fundraiser info" now for Tom Keen which lists his website, Twitter and FB addresses which refer back to ActBlue which still isn't taking donations. However, I found a post from Tom Keen from 1 day ago on his FB page saying that was the last day his campaign would be accepting donations. Curious...
By law Florida legislative races cannot accept contributions in the final 5 days of the election. Not sure any other state has this law. Why folks can no longer give.
A relative said yesterday that the migrant crisis is going to lose Biden the election. It's WAY TOO EARLY to be saying this kind of thing. BUT... what is/are your talking point(s) on the migrant crisis, and also what do you say when people make these kind of absurd predictions 10 months out (but aren't doing anything to help matters).