July Jobs Report Comes in Strong - The American Economy Remains Remarkably Strong, Resilient

209,000 new jobs, unemployment at 3.6%, inflation at 1.2% annualized, wage growth strong

Friday, July 7th - The July BLS jobs report is out and it’s another good one - 209,000 net new jobs, unemployment down to a near record low of 3.6%. Inflation ran at 1.2% annualized last month, and wage growth was strong. With this new data my monthly jobs tracker clocks in at:

• 33.8m jobs - 16 years of Clinton, Obama

• 13.2m jobs - 29 months of Biden

• 1.9m jobs - 16 years of Bush, Bush and Trump

Biden's 13.2m jobs is almost 7 times as many jobs as were created in the 16 years of the last 3 Republican Presidencies, combined.  It is also millions more than were created in the entirety of any of their three individual Presidencies.  Since 1989 and the end of the Cold War, the US has seen 49 million new jobs created.  Remarkably 47 million of those 49 million jobs were created under Democratic Presidents, 96% - essentially all of them.

We’ve also put some of the data which follows into a Twitter thread for those of you who still share on Twitter, and here’s some new material from the White House on the success of the Biden economic agenda.

Let’s go to the data, charts and graphs!

What this data tells us is that since this new age of globalization began in 1989, a modern and forward-looking Democratic Party has repeatedly seen strong economic growth on its watch.  Republican Presidents, on the other hand, have overseen three consecutive recessions - the last two, severe. The contrast in performance here is very stark. It is not a stretch to state that the GOP’s economic track record over the past 30 years has been among the worst in the history of the United States. Thus is is not surprising that in recent weeks we saw the Republicans working so hard to once again wreck the American economy - it is what the modern Republican Party does, again and again. It is also why we should be so grateful that our experienced and savvy President was able to stave off this Republican wrecking ball and get a smart deal done on the debt ceiling.

The reason it was so important for the Republicans to try to derail our current economic progress is because the Biden economic track record has been very strong:

• Best COVID recovery in the G7 (source)

• GDP growth over 3%, 3 times the rate under Trump. No recession on the horizon. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow has it at 2.1% for Q2 right now.

• 7 times as many Biden jobs in 29 months as last 3 GOP Presidents combined over 16 years

• Inflation down to 1.2% annually last month, is much lower here than Europe

• Lowest unemployment rate in peacetime economy since WWII

• Lowest poverty/uninsured rates ever

• Very elevated wage gains and new business starts, worker satisfaction at an all time high, real earnings up in 2022, real wages back in positive territory

• 1.6 job openings per unemployed person - an amazing stat

• The deficit has come way down under Biden, and a reminder that it went up every year under Trump and has come down every year under Biden

• Domestic oil production on track to set records in 2023, and we are making huge gains with non-carbon based energy. Gas prices down by more than a dollar a gallon since last summer despite OPEC’s repeated efforts to raise energy prices.

• Historic investments in our future prosperity (infrastructure, CHIPs, climate, health care)

Look at the jobs created per month over these Presidencies - Rs at just 10k per month over 16 years.  Biden is running at 50 times that so far.  Yes, 50x! The jobs created just this past month - 209 - is almost YEARS of job growth under these last 3 GOP Presidents.

Under Biden the US has had the best recovery from COVID of any advanced economy in the world, and inflation is much lower here than in Europe:

Under Biden the economy is growing at 3 times the rate it did under Trump:

The bottom line is that Democratic policies have repeatedly been able to make globalization work for the American people in this new and challenging age.  GOP policies have repeatedly failed to deliver, as a national party Republicans have repeatedly failed to do their part. 

It is a core belief of mine that the current radicalization of the GOP is intimately linked to its repeated failure to handle the challenges of the post-Cold War era.  The rigid ideological approach of the modern GOP has left it unable to govern in a time of rapid change; and those repeated failures have left many Republicans angry, reactionary and willing to do the unthinkable to stay in or regain power.  The modern GOP has no answers for many of the most important challenges America faces today, and rather than modernizing, adapting, as all institutions must in a time of change, the GOP has decided to fight the future by rigging the system to remain in power while the country and its people drift from their narrow grasp. 

This argument – about the success Democrats have achieved through modernization, and the failures of the GOP for their refusal to do so – is at the very core of my most important presentation, With Democrats Things Get Better.  The next live showing of With Dems is this Friday, July 20th at 1pm EST. You can learn more and RSVP here. With Dems is new and updated each time so even if you saw it a few months ago it will be fresh and new.

Finally, I believe our collective overarching message priority this year is to get into positive territory against the Republicans on the economy. I talk about why this is so important in a new Short Take video. Given this strong track record going all the back to 1989 we shouldn’t be losing the economic debate to these guys. It is critical that we work together in 2023 to establish this basic contrast:

Dems = growth, lower deficits, progress for workers and families

Rs = recession, higher deficits, American decline

As I wrote last month, the conversation about the economy in the US remains very red wavy - it is full of false right wing narratives that are distorting our understanding of what’s happening here in our own country. The bottom line is that our economy is historically strong. Joe Biden has been a very good President. The country is much better off today.

And if you don’t believe me, read this Economist cover story, "The lessons from America’s astonishing economic record. The world’s biggest economy is leaving its peers ever further in the dust,” or watch this video (below) of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria talking about the historic strength of the US economy right now:

I am proud of our country, our President and our Party. We need to be very loud in the coming months about all the good we’ve done. Our ability to win next year may very well depend on how successful we are in fighting this economic red wave and helping Americans come to a better understanding of how successful we all have been, together.

Keep working hard everyone - Simon