Simon, if more Democrats voted in the GA primary than Republicans, why did we lose those two court elections? Did many voters simply never hear about those elections and skip those races? Or are voters so used to confirming judges that they automatically did so?
My early take, open to revision as we get more data in:
We had drop off from the top of the ticket as competitive Supreme Court races are not common and folks didn't know who was who (it's a non-partisan race technically); the Rs spent a lot of money in the end; and the Justice who beat Jordan is popular and proved tough to beat.
I saw another good take on this that informs our voter education efforts in the future… In a non-partisan election, there won’t be a “D” or and “R” next to the candidates name, but there will be quite often and “I”. Being that it’s a primary election, a lot of people assume that everyone on the ballot is a Democrat, but when they see that “I“ a lot of them take it for “independent“ as opposed to “incumbent“. And a lot of people are very attracted to the independent label right now. So that might have led to some drop off, and some confusion among people who pulled a Democratic ballot. That and of course, the fear of helping to send a republican back to the court, if they didn’t know for sure who was values aligned with us, they just left it blank. I’m not taking this explanation to the bank yet, because I would like more data and more analysis to come out about it, but they are plausible, explanations. And, we will get better at communicating with Democratic voters in that state… We’re getting our sea legs in some places. The number of people that turned out to vote for Ossoff was was hugely encouraging, and I think that former Mayor Bottoms is going to be a very strong candidate for us as well. Georgia could certainly prove to be a very bright spot in November.
I too was disappointed in the SC races. There were more Dems who voted but they clearly did not vote for SC. The GA Dems have to figure out how to get the message out to our voters like the Dems did in Wisconsin.
I did a bit of calling. Heard from voters that they couldn’t remember the names of the candidates they were supposed to vote for. At least one voter told me there were “so many names and they weren’t sure they had voted for the right people “
Our local Democratic group prints voter guides from the bottom up. We start with school boards and judges and other non-partisan races at the top and get to Senators and such at the bottom. I don’t know how much difference it makes but I love the innovation.
Jordan and Rankin should be congratulated and thanked a thousand times for running excellent tough races. Democracy means there is no such thing as a guaranteed win, and without candidates we can’t win anything.
I live in Texas and the San Antonio chapter of The League of Women Voters put out a comprehensive voter's guide for the primaries. I'm talking about Democrats up and down the ticket: U.S. senator, Governor, Lt. Governor, State Supreme Court--the whole bit. I printed it out and used it to pick out the candidates I would vote for. It was a huge help, as it made me aware of the Democratic candidates who were running.
The LWV has chapters in nearly all 50 states (Nevada and Vermont have only their respective state leagues), and Georgia has 14 chapters. Here's a link: https://www.lwv.org/local-leagues/find-local-league/36. If you or anyone you know lives in the Peach State, please send them this link. The voter's guide is a huge help and is crucial in educating voters on the candidates.
YES! The League is awesome on voter ed and has stepped up its game in the last 6 months or so, doing trainings and outreach like crazy. Highly recommend!
As a poll worker for Hamilton County IN Dems in every election since 2016, I can tell you that we gets lots of faithful primary voters who are intent upon voting for particular top of ballot candidates but who are uninformed about down ballot races and therefore tend to skip those races which are also very important - school board for example. And in this particular case, SC judges.
Marcia, tell voters to look up their state League of Women Voters chapters. From there, they can get info on ALL races, from top to bottom and back up. Here's the link: https://www.lwv.org/local-leagues/find-local-league.
Thanks, Veronica. I was a member of the League years ago. But as you know, they are nonpartisan and i am interested in promoting Dems. Our local branch declined an invitation to register voters at NKIII, deeming it “too political.”
My polling place usually has Ds and Rs outside offering sample- ballots. If that happened in GA, maybe state SC candidates weren’t included? Maybe because they are supposed to be non-partisan?
Here's a tidbit I noticed last night, may be relevant. When I went to the NYT election result page for Georgia last night (before I put the phone down and started working on a puzzle), I noticed that the supreme court races weren't prominent at all. I had to scroll down a ways to find them. Did that mirror the ballot? I don't know what the Georgia ballots looked like but maybe people didn't always get down to that point after voting for candidates they knew well.
I noticed the same thing! Last night's results made decide to canvass for Anita Earls, who is running in NC to keep her seat on the Supreme Court. Most voters have no idea how important these races are, much less who the candidates are.
I was disappointed to see the Georgia SC results, but maybe it isn't so surprising.
It might've been the sort of race where volunteering really has the biggest impact. I didn't do anything in that race in the way of volunteer efforts myself.
Maybe there's some other explanation for the result, but a lot of people don't view SC races seriously, and are inclined to just pick "incumbent" especially when it is ostensibly "non partisan". Educating voters in large enough numbers might've won it.
Simon's description in this morning's Coffee with Contrarians, 'spasm of corruption', I think perfectly encapsulates Trump's approach of late. it reminds me of the glutton at the Royal Fork Buffet stuffing drumsticks and pies into his pockets as he runs out the door. I think he recognizes that his time is just about up and wants to stuff himself full of goodies before the meteor strikes.
Thank you Simon for the back to back interviews with Johnathan Nez for AZ-2 and Sen. Ruben Gallego. As an AZ resident it was to rewarding to listen to Nez explain his knowledge of the district he wants to represent. His challenger, the incumbent, traitorous Eli Crane doesn't even live in his own district. Ruben just kicks butt as he should. I'm glad you observe the orange one's "wins" last night are not all they seem.
I don't regret a moment spent writing postcards for the two Georgia Supreme Court challengers. I watched your interviews with them and was impressed by their level-headedness, intelligence, and courage. The more folks like this run and are made visible to more people, the better for everyone. That is how we get a "next time." Trump/MAGA are just too despicable not to challenge and keep challenging until we get our country back. "No war. No haters. No demented dictators."
I was a little surprised that we didn't get at least one of those seats. I'm a little confused about the turnout reporting. I was reading that D turn out was greater than R for the primary voting which the SC races were married to. It would seem if that was true, that the D aligned SC candidates would have done better. That is unless people skipped the race, not sure if there is data on that or not.
One comment I read was regarding the ballot structure and having a general election race on a primary ballot. Voters pulled a D ballot to vote in that primary and, on the same ballot, was the general for the SC with certain candidates marked "incumbent". Those that aren't political junkies might have thought those incumbents were Democrats since they had a Democratic ballot. Not sure if the data supports any of that and those of you from GA would know a lot better than I would.
Thanks to all who donated and worked to make these races a possibility.
Simon, thanks for the update. I was delighted to see last night that Kaine's continued efforts are paying off to invoke the War Powers Act. Trump can keep nuking Republicans, but that may just free some of them up to vote against him. As noted, they're in office between now and the end of the year.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say that Trump is out of touch with reality and has to be removed from office. I'm writing postcards to Ohio voters today.
Thank God for you, Simon, and this community. I am so grateful. I really feel I wish I could express the emotion adequately. I was down about Massie and Jen and Miracle losing, like all of us. But your episode with Norman this morning, and your post above, lifted me up again to get back to work. I was going to get back to work anyway, but i was deflated. Not now. We don't have the luxury! We keep putting one foot in front of the other and we will overcome.
On the Georgia SC race, I heard a possible explanation could be that since Democrats pull a DEMOCRATIC ticket, they might have assumed the SC judges were technically "democrats."
So . If you knew nothing about the candidates, you might just select the "incumbent." I do not know if this argument has any merit, just someone's conjecture
Not strictly Hopium related, but Simon… You gotta tell us what it was like to see an inside the park grand slam in person! That’s the wildest shit I’ve ever seen
It was incredible. Nats were down 5-0, after a brutal extra inning lost last night. My middle son Willie played with James Wood for two seasons in middle school so we've met him and his family. When I saw the ball bounce away from the two outfielders I yelled "he's gonna score!" and he did! Made it 5-4, got us back in the game, and the gritty Nats got it done and won 9-6.
Should also note that on the car ride to the game we all noted how often James Wood homers at games we are at, and how often they are three run homers. No late cheapies in blow out games. This one was certainly that.
You might just get me interested in watching baseball. I'm a big fan of tennis and played softball in my youth. That was an incredible video to watch. We need these little breaks of normalcy in these hard days. Appreciate you sharing the video.
That's really cool, both that you were there and able to share it with family. That'll be a "remember when?" story years from now. My paternal grandfather witnessed an unassisted triple play in Cleveland as a young man and family legend has it that he arrived home from the game basically speechless.
I happened to be in San Francisco in July of 2016 and saw in person the amazing 3-3-5 triple play by the Nats against the Giants. At first, only a few really comprehended what they were seeing. Also pretty incredible!
Um, er, not for nothin', but the Mets are having an epically bad season. Just throwin' that out there. The Amazins are NOT this year. Holding out hope for the mighty Knicks!
Thinking about the GA races, the drop-off down ballot, and their judicial candidates not being identified with a party on the ballot... Down ballot drop-off is one of the reasons our local group endorses and makes a handout card - simple and homemade, but super popular, sometimes dubbed the cheat sheet. We cover candidates and ballot questions, which are often confusing. They're just for our local area and we go through thousands of them most years.
Those of you with local groups, do you do something similar? I know lots of groups don't endorse. But, it seems we need lots more trusted messengers on the ground everywhere running our own version of coordinated campaigns.
We usually make them for primaries and generals unless our candidates are unopposed or there's no candidate we care about. In MA, the primary is often the end of the race (for state senators, reps, county district attorneys, US reps, etc.) since in our area, we hardly ever have Republican candidates or at least none who identify as R. Some of our Dem candidates might have been Rs somewhere else where it's socially acceptable, so Dem primary candidates can be *really* different on policy, community connectedness, and style.
City level candidates (odd-numbered years) run non-partisan and lots of people run, so in those years, we make cards for the primary and general, and people rely on it to differentiate.
We've never had a card with only one candidate. It's always an array so one impact is teaching people about down-ballot offices. With multiple candidates, and sometimes also ballot Qs, it comes across as representing a vision (people tell us) and not just a campaign.
The Hamilton County Party (I volunteer for our bricks and mortar office 2 shifts per week) won’t pick a candidate in a contested primary. However, maybe I can find another group that would be interested.
Not going to lie, the Georgia news is a real bummer.
I refrained from looking closely last night, but feared the worst when I didn't see any celebratory postings.
Had convinced myself this was going to be at least one pickup and another repudiation for the GOP and Trump, so a bit down today. I suppose there are some plausible explanations to be considered, but still a major disappointment considering the general direction of travel in so many elections over the past year and a half.
Oh well, we pick ourselves up and go again I guess.
No time for feeling sorry for ourselves, there is still much work to be done!!
Thank you to Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin for challenging the Georgia Supreme Court! And one point? That is amazing after 100 years of no challenge. We are not going to win every race we take on, but every race - win or lose - is important. If we don't win this time, we will next time. This is how you advance a party in state races. Proud to have supported these two proud patriots.
Was always likely considering the effort and money they put into unseating him (still a close enough contest in the end) and he is now a loose cannon for the reminder of his term when Repubs actually have power and could use his vote, which is not a given now I imagine.
The guy who will replace him is terrible, but likely an irrelevance assuming a Democratic controlled House.
Simon, if more Democrats voted in the GA primary than Republicans, why did we lose those two court elections? Did many voters simply never hear about those elections and skip those races? Or are voters so used to confirming judges that they automatically did so?
My early take, open to revision as we get more data in:
We had drop off from the top of the ticket as competitive Supreme Court races are not common and folks didn't know who was who (it's a non-partisan race technically); the Rs spent a lot of money in the end; and the Justice who beat Jordan is popular and proved tough to beat.
I saw another good take on this that informs our voter education efforts in the future… In a non-partisan election, there won’t be a “D” or and “R” next to the candidates name, but there will be quite often and “I”. Being that it’s a primary election, a lot of people assume that everyone on the ballot is a Democrat, but when they see that “I“ a lot of them take it for “independent“ as opposed to “incumbent“. And a lot of people are very attracted to the independent label right now. So that might have led to some drop off, and some confusion among people who pulled a Democratic ballot. That and of course, the fear of helping to send a republican back to the court, if they didn’t know for sure who was values aligned with us, they just left it blank. I’m not taking this explanation to the bank yet, because I would like more data and more analysis to come out about it, but they are plausible, explanations. And, we will get better at communicating with Democratic voters in that state… We’re getting our sea legs in some places. The number of people that turned out to vote for Ossoff was was hugely encouraging, and I think that former Mayor Bottoms is going to be a very strong candidate for us as well. Georgia could certainly prove to be a very bright spot in November.
I too was disappointed in the SC races. There were more Dems who voted but they clearly did not vote for SC. The GA Dems have to figure out how to get the message out to our voters like the Dems did in Wisconsin.
I did a bit of calling. Heard from voters that they couldn’t remember the names of the candidates they were supposed to vote for. At least one voter told me there were “so many names and they weren’t sure they had voted for the right people “
Usually someone publishes a "voter guide". I remember a few times canvassing and distributing them.
Our local Democratic group prints voter guides from the bottom up. We start with school boards and judges and other non-partisan races at the top and get to Senators and such at the bottom. I don’t know how much difference it makes but I love the innovation.
Jordan and Rankin should be congratulated and thanked a thousand times for running excellent tough races. Democracy means there is no such thing as a guaranteed win, and without candidates we can’t win anything.
I live in Texas and the San Antonio chapter of The League of Women Voters put out a comprehensive voter's guide for the primaries. I'm talking about Democrats up and down the ticket: U.S. senator, Governor, Lt. Governor, State Supreme Court--the whole bit. I printed it out and used it to pick out the candidates I would vote for. It was a huge help, as it made me aware of the Democratic candidates who were running.
The LWV has chapters in nearly all 50 states (Nevada and Vermont have only their respective state leagues), and Georgia has 14 chapters. Here's a link: https://www.lwv.org/local-leagues/find-local-league/36. If you or anyone you know lives in the Peach State, please send them this link. The voter's guide is a huge help and is crucial in educating voters on the candidates.
YES! The League is awesome on voter ed and has stepped up its game in the last 6 months or so, doing trainings and outreach like crazy. Highly recommend!
As a poll worker for Hamilton County IN Dems in every election since 2016, I can tell you that we gets lots of faithful primary voters who are intent upon voting for particular top of ballot candidates but who are uninformed about down ballot races and therefore tend to skip those races which are also very important - school board for example. And in this particular case, SC judges.
Marcia, tell voters to look up their state League of Women Voters chapters. From there, they can get info on ALL races, from top to bottom and back up. Here's the link: https://www.lwv.org/local-leagues/find-local-league.
Thanks, Veronica. I was a member of the League years ago. But as you know, they are nonpartisan and i am interested in promoting Dems. Our local branch declined an invitation to register voters at NKIII, deeming it “too political.”
What? Oh, God. How can registering voters at an event DESIGNED to promote democracy be "too political"?
My polling place usually has Ds and Rs outside offering sample- ballots. If that happened in GA, maybe state SC candidates weren’t included? Maybe because they are supposed to be non-partisan?
Here's a tidbit I noticed last night, may be relevant. When I went to the NYT election result page for Georgia last night (before I put the phone down and started working on a puzzle), I noticed that the supreme court races weren't prominent at all. I had to scroll down a ways to find them. Did that mirror the ballot? I don't know what the Georgia ballots looked like but maybe people didn't always get down to that point after voting for candidates they knew well.
I noticed the same thing! Last night's results made decide to canvass for Anita Earls, who is running in NC to keep her seat on the Supreme Court. Most voters have no idea how important these races are, much less who the candidates are.
May he burn in hell, or the secular equivalent.
I often say “the worst thing about being an atheist is not believing in the hell that some people deserve to burn in”.
I was disappointed to see the Georgia SC results, but maybe it isn't so surprising.
It might've been the sort of race where volunteering really has the biggest impact. I didn't do anything in that race in the way of volunteer efforts myself.
Maybe there's some other explanation for the result, but a lot of people don't view SC races seriously, and are inclined to just pick "incumbent" especially when it is ostensibly "non partisan". Educating voters in large enough numbers might've won it.
The problem may be the we try to play by the book and the republicans have ripped up that book. What is the answer to this problem
Simon's description in this morning's Coffee with Contrarians, 'spasm of corruption', I think perfectly encapsulates Trump's approach of late. it reminds me of the glutton at the Royal Fork Buffet stuffing drumsticks and pies into his pockets as he runs out the door. I think he recognizes that his time is just about up and wants to stuff himself full of goodies before the meteor strikes.
100%
Thank you Simon for the back to back interviews with Johnathan Nez for AZ-2 and Sen. Ruben Gallego. As an AZ resident it was to rewarding to listen to Nez explain his knowledge of the district he wants to represent. His challenger, the incumbent, traitorous Eli Crane doesn't even live in his own district. Ruben just kicks butt as he should. I'm glad you observe the orange one's "wins" last night are not all they seem.
I don't regret a moment spent writing postcards for the two Georgia Supreme Court challengers. I watched your interviews with them and was impressed by their level-headedness, intelligence, and courage. The more folks like this run and are made visible to more people, the better for everyone. That is how we get a "next time." Trump/MAGA are just too despicable not to challenge and keep challenging until we get our country back. "No war. No haters. No demented dictators."
Agree. I have no doubt the Georgia Dems are doing a debrief and will figure out how to do even better next time.
I keep thinking about the Dolly Parton song, "You Gotta Just Try." I almost got a speeding ticket in Nevada listening to that one...
Thank you for your service!
I was a little surprised that we didn't get at least one of those seats. I'm a little confused about the turnout reporting. I was reading that D turn out was greater than R for the primary voting which the SC races were married to. It would seem if that was true, that the D aligned SC candidates would have done better. That is unless people skipped the race, not sure if there is data on that or not.
One comment I read was regarding the ballot structure and having a general election race on a primary ballot. Voters pulled a D ballot to vote in that primary and, on the same ballot, was the general for the SC with certain candidates marked "incumbent". Those that aren't political junkies might have thought those incumbents were Democrats since they had a Democratic ballot. Not sure if the data supports any of that and those of you from GA would know a lot better than I would.
Thanks to all who donated and worked to make these races a possibility.
That's interesting. Thanks for helping me better understand this.
Simon, thanks for the update. I was delighted to see last night that Kaine's continued efforts are paying off to invoke the War Powers Act. Trump can keep nuking Republicans, but that may just free some of them up to vote against him. As noted, they're in office between now and the end of the year.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say that Trump is out of touch with reality and has to be removed from office. I'm writing postcards to Ohio voters today.
Yes! And FYI, my mom voted for Van Hollen for his first House race back in the day. He is a total badass!
Thank God for you, Simon, and this community. I am so grateful. I really feel I wish I could express the emotion adequately. I was down about Massie and Jen and Miracle losing, like all of us. But your episode with Norman this morning, and your post above, lifted me up again to get back to work. I was going to get back to work anyway, but i was deflated. Not now. We don't have the luxury! We keep putting one foot in front of the other and we will overcome.
"Many more" Democrats voted than Republicans in the Georgia primary, but the D Supreme Court candidates lost. How should we think about this?
See Simon's reply to today's first question. That's the question we all woke up with.
On the Georgia SC race, I heard a possible explanation could be that since Democrats pull a DEMOCRATIC ticket, they might have assumed the SC judges were technically "democrats."
So . If you knew nothing about the candidates, you might just select the "incumbent." I do not know if this argument has any merit, just someone's conjecture
Ticket meaning Democratic ballot for the primary
Not strictly Hopium related, but Simon… You gotta tell us what it was like to see an inside the park grand slam in person! That’s the wildest shit I’ve ever seen
🤯⚾️🏟️
It was incredible. Nats were down 5-0, after a brutal extra inning lost last night. My middle son Willie played with James Wood for two seasons in middle school so we've met him and his family. When I saw the ball bounce away from the two outfielders I yelled "he's gonna score!" and he did! Made it 5-4, got us back in the game, and the gritty Nats got it done and won 9-6.
Should also note that on the car ride to the game we all noted how often James Wood homers at games we are at, and how often they are three run homers. No late cheapies in blow out games. This one was certainly that.
Epic!
I don’t like baseball and even I think this is cool
You might just get me interested in watching baseball. I'm a big fan of tennis and played softball in my youth. That was an incredible video to watch. We need these little breaks of normalcy in these hard days. Appreciate you sharing the video.
That's really cool, both that you were there and able to share it with family. That'll be a "remember when?" story years from now. My paternal grandfather witnessed an unassisted triple play in Cleveland as a young man and family legend has it that he arrived home from the game basically speechless.
I happened to be in San Francisco in July of 2016 and saw in person the amazing 3-3-5 triple play by the Nats against the Giants. At first, only a few really comprehended what they were seeing. Also pretty incredible!
Um, er, not for nothin', but the Mets are having an epically bad season. Just throwin' that out there. The Amazins are NOT this year. Holding out hope for the mighty Knicks!
Thinking about the GA races, the drop-off down ballot, and their judicial candidates not being identified with a party on the ballot... Down ballot drop-off is one of the reasons our local group endorses and makes a handout card - simple and homemade, but super popular, sometimes dubbed the cheat sheet. We cover candidates and ballot questions, which are often confusing. They're just for our local area and we go through thousands of them most years.
Those of you with local groups, do you do something similar? I know lots of groups don't endorse. But, it seems we need lots more trusted messengers on the ground everywhere running our own version of coordinated campaigns.
Rachel, are you making the cheat sheets for a particular Dem candidate running in a contested primary?
We usually make them for primaries and generals unless our candidates are unopposed or there's no candidate we care about. In MA, the primary is often the end of the race (for state senators, reps, county district attorneys, US reps, etc.) since in our area, we hardly ever have Republican candidates or at least none who identify as R. Some of our Dem candidates might have been Rs somewhere else where it's socially acceptable, so Dem primary candidates can be *really* different on policy, community connectedness, and style.
City level candidates (odd-numbered years) run non-partisan and lots of people run, so in those years, we make cards for the primary and general, and people rely on it to differentiate.
We've never had a card with only one candidate. It's always an array so one impact is teaching people about down-ballot offices. With multiple candidates, and sometimes also ballot Qs, it comes across as representing a vision (people tell us) and not just a campaign.
Thanks, Rachel. That’s helpful.
Are you in a group that makes cards or is thinking about it?
The Hamilton County Party (I volunteer for our bricks and mortar office 2 shifts per week) won’t pick a candidate in a contested primary. However, maybe I can find another group that would be interested.
County Dem party here does a voter guide that's similar. They just announced they'll be doing one again this year
Not going to lie, the Georgia news is a real bummer.
I refrained from looking closely last night, but feared the worst when I didn't see any celebratory postings.
Had convinced myself this was going to be at least one pickup and another repudiation for the GOP and Trump, so a bit down today. I suppose there are some plausible explanations to be considered, but still a major disappointment considering the general direction of travel in so many elections over the past year and a half.
Oh well, we pick ourselves up and go again I guess.
No time for feeling sorry for ourselves, there is still much work to be done!!
Yeah, kind of like fallin' off the bike. It hurt! Got all scraped up and then have to get back on so we can pedal our way home.
Thank you to Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin for challenging the Georgia Supreme Court! And one point? That is amazing after 100 years of no challenge. We are not going to win every race we take on, but every race - win or lose - is important. If we don't win this time, we will next time. This is how you advance a party in state races. Proud to have supported these two proud patriots.
I don't mind Massie losing though.
Was always likely considering the effort and money they put into unseating him (still a close enough contest in the end) and he is now a loose cannon for the reminder of his term when Repubs actually have power and could use his vote, which is not a given now I imagine.
The guy who will replace him is terrible, but likely an irrelevance assuming a Democratic controlled House.