Anyone Who Thinks Trump Is Winning Isn't Paying Attention

Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm ET to go over the primary results and talk politics....

Morning everyone. Coming a little late today because I joined the Contrarians this morning for a post-primary round up. Here are some takeaways from the primaries last night and the last few eventful days of our politics…..

Trump’s Taking Out Incumbent Senators And House Members Is A Strategic Disaster For Him And The GOP - Two reasons. 1) Tying 2026 candidates more closely to him - wildly unpopular, his agenda even more so - is not helping his party win this November. Stories about his preferred candidates prevailing in swing states like Georgia will hurt them in the general, as it did in the last two midterms. For outside the MAGA base Trumpism = failed war, higher prices, slower economy, gutted health care, unprecedented corruption - and who the well wants to run on that?

2) Read this quote from Politico this morning. It is as true as the sky is blue:

This remarkable passage comes from a story that is the lead on the Politico website, and it reads like a huge scream from Congressional Republicans to the White House that he is f-cking everything up, they are pissed, and Dear Addled Leader needs to get his shit together.

Here’s another jawdropping passage:

In the last few days Trump has worked to take out the #2 Republican in the Senate, one of their most powerful Committee Chairman, and the man who led the legislative fight to force Trump to release the Epstein files, something that passed unanimously in both chambers. As a DC lifer I cannot tell how much this is anything but a win for him as it will now weaken his hold over Congressional Republicans who expect the leader of their party to help them win, not take them out.

Look at what’s happened in the past few days. In a huge rebuke to Trump 218 House Members, including several Republicans, signed a discharge petition to force a vote on The Ukraine Support Act that would directly challenge his current approach to Europe and the Ukraine war. Yesterday in another extraordinary rebuke an initial Senate vote to invoke the War Powers Act and rein in his failed war passed the Senate. Among those who helped get it passed was Senator Cassidy from Louisiana, whom Trump just defeated in his primary. Senate Republicans have rejected Trump’s pathetic pleas to pass the SAVE Act; to fire the Senate parliamentarian; to fund his ridiculous ballroom; and yesterday around the same time Trump endorsed AG Paxton in Texas we got this from the Senate leader:

From the article:

Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune has split with the Trump administration over its creation of a $1.8bn (£1.3bn) fund aimed at compensating individuals “unfairly” investigated by previous administrations.

Thune, the most high-profile member of Trump’s party to criticise the plan, told reporters he was “not a big fan” and did not see “a purpose” for the fund.

………

Thune, the top ranking Republican in the US Senate, said that he was “not sure exactly how they intend to use it” and that he expected it to undergo a “full vetting” by lawmakers.

The insidery DC press is full of stories like this one today. Senate Rs are pissed!!!!

And then there was the data from the new NYT poll this week. This ain’t winning folks…..

And this new not winning data too:

Georgia and Pennsylvania - Dems got their preferred candidates in the 4 possible PA pick ups last night - PA-1, PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10 - and all of a sudden Pennsylvania becomes one of the most important battleground states this cycle. Hopium has already endorsed Paige Cognetti (PA-8) and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and will be endorsing Bob Harvie (PA-1) and Bob Brooks (PA-07) in the coming days.

Georgia. Good news and bad news. The good news first. Many more Democrats voted in the primary last night than Republicans, something that has not happened in 20 years, and is another indicator of how fired up our electorate is this year. Our candidates for Senate and Governor won their primaries outright last night while the Rs have debilitating run-offs in both.

The bad news is that both Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin lost last night. No one had unseated a sitting Supreme Court justice in over 100 years in Georgia, and while Miracle Rankin came within a point of winning neither prevailed. While disappointing this was the right fight. We must keep expanding our maps, keep growing more ambitious and more strategic about taking power away from MAGA. I applaud GA Dem Chair Charlie Bailey for making a run at this and am grateful to all of you who contributed to this worthwhile campaign. I am also grateful for Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin for having the courage to run - these days that is no easy thing.

In life you can’t score unless you shoot and we need to be trying to score many, many more baskets to take power from MAGA and keep it for years to come. So while we lost here this was the right strategic play; and post-Callais we all need to be taking the winning of state legislative and Supreme Court seats far more seriously.

Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm to go over all this. Register here, looking forward to seeing folks, and now……

Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We’ve begun a campaign to pass HR 2913 - The Ukraine Support Act - through the House and then work to get something similar through the Senate. Learn more here, and please call your House Rep every day until it passes. This one really matters people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $698,600 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize her

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $94,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $71,600 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Winning Ohio - $147,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with US Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, our candidate for Governor Dr. Amy Acton, Lt. Gov candidate David Pepper, and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde

This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $567,600 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $113,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $176,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learm more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and these great candidates to elect, together! - Simon