Bynum Flips OR-5, Hopium Thank You Event in LA Friday, Ballot Curing, Post-Election Pods, Posts and Video

Welcome New Subscribers!

Happy Sunday all. Got a few things for you today:

Ballot Curing - There are still states where we are working to help people “cure” their ballots. Curing is a process where a mail/dropbox ballot is rejected for a missing signature or other reasons, and we notify people that this has happened and help them “cure” or fix it so their votes count. If you would like to help out in this process you can sign up for DCCC calls into California this week, or a parallel process being run by the DNC. Yes more work to do in the 2024 election!

Update On The Hopium 15 And The Battle For Control Of The House - Janelle Bynum has now officially flipped OR-5 - congrats all! Here is where our 15 endorsed candidates stand now:

• Flips - Gillen NY-4, Riley NY-19, Janelle Bynum OR-5

• Too Close To Call/Still Counting - Shah AZ-01, Engel AZ-6, Gray CA-13, Salas CA-22, Whitesides CA-27, Rollins CA-41, Tran CA-45, Bohannan IA-1, Vargas NE-2

• Losses - Jones NY-17, Altman NJ-07, Stelson PA-10

What happens in these races in the coming days - the place where we put out money and time - will determine control of the House. I remain very proud of the good we’ve done, together, this cycle. We made deeply strategic investments, and let us hope that some of them end up giving us the House.

Also want to note the success we’ve had in New York this cycle. We’ve now flipped 4 NY House seats this year - NY-3, NY-4, NY-19 and NY-22. These wins have been another bright spot in a tough year.

Jacky Rosen has won her Nevada Senate race, Ruben Gallego is favored in Arizona and the Pennsylvania Senate race looks like it is heading to a recount. While we lost all 7 battleground states to Trump, we have won important statewide races now in AZ, MI, NC, NV and WI. We have also had critical state legislative wins in NC, PA and WI. I dove into all this a bit more on Friday, and will once again share a part of that analysis:

Despite the initial shock, the election was a very close one, with Trump narrowly winning in the battlegrounds, the Senate will be 52-48 or 53-47 and the House to be decided by a seat or two. While we lost the Presidency, we had many important down ballot wins, including in the Senate and the NC governorship, in these same battleground states. This was not a massive win, a wave election or some big mandate for MAGA. It was a narrow win in a closely divided country.

Hopium “Thank You, Rest Up and Get Ready” Party in Los Angeles This Friday at 6pm - I am heading out to Los Angeles later this week to speak to a class at The Annenberg School at the University of Southern California. While there, and as a way to thank the many people who volunteered and donated this year, I am teaming up with our friends at the Grassroots Democrats HQ to have a formal thank you party on Friday at 6pm PT. It will take place at the GDHQ office, 1027 Westwood Boulevard in Los Angeles. All members of the Hopium community are invited so please RSVP today! I am really looking forward to seeing members of this community, and thanking all of you in person.

While we did not have the election we all wanted to have, grassroots Democrats have much to be proud of, and left it all out there on the playing field this year. It will be an honor to be able to thank folks in person for their extraordinary work this cycle (which in California continues this week!).

Tuesday, November 19th, 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Join me for the next live showing of my big picture presentation on American politics, With Democrats, Things Get Better. It is newly updated with each showing, so even if you caught it earlier this year there will be new data and fresh analysis. Please register here. The arguments in this presentation are foundational to our work here at Hopium, and will be helpful to those wrestling with where we go from here.

“Lived Experience” Is A Political Construct - As we all seek to come to a better understanding of the election, I share this bit of data from the October 21st Economist/YouGov poll:

Biden's handling of the economy, approve/disapprove:

• Ds 77-16

• Rs 8-90

Biden's handling of inflation:

• Ds 67-23

• Rs 7-90

It’s a reminder that people’s understanding of the economy, even their “lived experience,” is in part a political construct. In my mind there can be no conversation about this election and our path forward without acknowledging the right’s far superior capacity to drive our daily discourse and shape understandings. These conversations must proceed in parallel.

Post-Election Pods, Posts and Videos - I got together with Tara McGowan and David Rothkopf on Thursday for one of our Deep State Radio discussions about US politics. This is the first of what will be many discussions I will be participating in about what happened and where we go from here. Perhaps listen over the long weekend, and for those looking for more pro-democracy content do check out Deep State Radio. It will be an important source of informed content in this new Trump era.

A few more things to chew on this weekend if you haven’t gotten to them yet:

• My new video with some initial thoughts on the election, what we did together this cycle and the hard road ahead

• My post, On The Urgent Need To Get Louder, and my recent related Closing Strong conversation with Dan Pfeiffer and Tara McGowan

• My Friday post on the need for the national Democratic Party to compete more aggressively in all 50 states and not just the 7 battlegrounds

• Vice President Kamala Harris’s eloquent concession speech

As I’ve written to you my take on what happened and where we go from here is going come gradually, over time, and will involve us hearing from many others along the way. This week we are going to hear from Anderson Clayton on what happened in North Carolina and Joe Trippi on the power of networks. And I will be offering some new insights too.

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon