I’m curious, why does AP matter more than Decision Desk HQ and/or the networks? Moreover, it is entirely possible that AP prematurely called the Pennsylvania Senate race for McCormick.
Thank you for doing this. I'm trapped working all weekend (lawyer) but made some small donations today to House candidates that asked for help with similar efforts.
BTC had an analysis of it yesterday. Basically, Democrats would have to win every remaining race to retake the majority. The likelihood of that happening is slim. The most likely scenario is Republicans retain control, but Democrats make gains, meaning Mike Johnson will have perhaps a 1-3 seat majority only of the House.
The only Speaker I've ever seen knowing how to govern with a slim majority is Nancy Pelosi. This congress will do so little good for our country that I think the 2026 election will be very good for Dems. I hope Hopium is still around then! :)
Hi Kent, Absolutely. There are two years to prepare for a 'blue wave' election. That should be the ambition. Good House candidates with a good platform and a contrast between Trump (or by then maybe Vance).
I do think that we Democrats did not understand how much inflation hurt a lot of people…I remember filling up the tank for $50 and thinking, “This must be very hard for people making modest salaries….” And rents sooo high…and $200 on groceries every trip…I think when Biden and Harris didn’t acknowledge how bad it was for people and just touted all the achievements (which are considerable and will pay off….) people of modest means just felt the administration didn’t care about them…
Mary, the VP's central message was that she will going to lower costs for families and the campaign spent more than $200m on ads about lowering costs. It was the centerpiece of her entire campaign. Additionally, we passed something called the inflation reduction act in 2022 which actually lowered inflation, dramatically. The notion floating around our family that Biden and Harris did not talk about inflation and lowering costs is just false. In fact the VP rarely mentioned the "accomplishments" in the general election. It was all about inflation and lowering costs.
Yes, but pre-campaign, it seems to me that the Biden Administration failed to sufficiently impact the narrative about inflation. Instead, the narrative was formed primarily by the Republicans, by Fox News and right-wing media, and their talking points were echoed by the bothsiderist mainstream media.
Biden did a great job improving the realities, but failed at the narrative – hence the widespread negative perception of the economy. Politically, perception matters even more than reality.
By the time Kamala Harris became the candidate, her campaign was fighting with a huge handicap. Her campaign and messaging – incredible and stellar (!) – had a really hard time penetrating the various news bubbles.
I think that is right. They could've done a better job managing the narrative.
But I think also there is an assumption that there was a way they could've done things differently and not gotten punished. Mitigating the damage was I suspect about all one could hope for.
I think though a lot of convincing arguments have been made that she did not effectively separate herself from Biden. It was tough to run both with legitimate pride at the accomplishments, but somehow run away from Biden at the same time.
Rightly or wrongly, Biden was unpopular. I think she needed to generate greater distance.
But this is all Monday Morning QBing. Altogether she was a good candidate. Not perfect. But under very difficult circumstances she ran an outstanding campaign. Some disadvantages she had could only be mitigated I think.
I’m talking about 3.5 years of messaging and narrative-forming (or rather the lack of it) by the Biden Administration. I have absolutely no criticism of Kamala Harris or her campaign’s messaging. Those were superb.
Artic always appreciate your comments. I agree Biden was not so good at branding. Every infrastructure project big sign. Also Trump dominated billboards. They should have invested in that more. We do fine w educated voters but lower info prez yrs need more of a message. Maybe w our ground game we could promote accomplishments more. Also Trump really does maximize his vote. So many of his votes were for him only and no down ballot. The pattern seems strong that we overperform in midterms bc of the electorate makeup and get swamped in prez yrs. And in an anti incumbent yr it really was like climbing Everest.
Yes. Biden was heroic and did a lousy job of translating policies into benefits to individuals. In sales, there is a winning concept. Everyone is tuned into their own radio station: WIFM (What’s In It For Me). It is vital to translate policies/candidates into very clear messages about how individuals will benefit from them. Dems didn’t do that.
I also highly recommend this conversation between Jon Stewart and Heather Cox Richardson. Brilliant historical and political perspective of this moment by HCR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7cKOaBdFWo
Communication is so important in todays world and something Biden just can’t do with his speech and age issues. Instead of Buttigig in transportation he should have been in some position communicating to the public and going on Fox to refute their lies.
I always thought Pete Buttigieg should have replaced Jen Psaki when she stepped down. He is such an effective communicator and doing it all with a gentlemanly manner. I think Karine Jean-Pierre is great too, but for this time, I think Pete Buttigieg is much more effective.
No. Please read Jess Piper on the dark corners of the web where so many get their info. They could not have managed the narrative without going toe to toe there. https://jesspiper.substack.com/p/barbie-and-the-beast
Let's just be honest about this. Biden stunk at touting his admin's own accomplishments, and not just during election season. I'm not going to speculate why that was but regardless, it's the truth. This left a huge hole which was filled by right-wing media. The bully pulpit was squandered here and once that took hold it was very difficult for Harris to move that needle.
Biden never explained why there was inflation so that people could understand that it was worldwide. Right now I just feel like fox news and right wing propaganda is unbeatable. Most of the country still thinks the economy is horrible. That will all change when Trump gets in there and fox news tells everyone how great the economy is.
I truly believe you are taking too much of the blame for the Dems. People believe what they want to believe. I don't feel there is anything Biden could have said that would have made much difference.
With all respect, the reason Trump was elected is bc the CEO's who only care about their money, the MAGAs and the wannabes came out to vote for Trump because of what he stands for not in spite of it. No matter what they say, I know people who say they vote for Trump bc of X, Y and the price of gas or eggs. They never say they vote for him bc they, too, believe immigrants don't belong here (even if they too are immigrants) or because Brown and Black people fill in the blank. I believe there is no one single issue that would have changed the outcome. Agree the Democratic Party does need to start with modernizing and finding a new way to communicate and fight. Stop playing by the MSM's rules that only the Dems seem to abide by. I DO believe the Dems have to accept that the MSM is not fair, balanced or interested in reporting facts. They, too, have their own interests. In my opinion, if there is one big failing, it's that a lot of people on our side completely underestimate Trump's racist, misogyny ACTUALLY appeals and speaks to those that want to be above all the "others". Trump and the money behind him know this.
I largely agree with you. The Dems are spending so much capital on "what we did wrong," when, sometimes, it is doing what is right that makes you lose.
I have to disagree. The MSM just didn't cover it. I sent maybe 6 letters to NYT asking them to please cover where the money was going, what was being built. Crickets. We need our own media as big and invasive as fox.
:) I don't think we disagree! The MSM has failed us all. We need to reach people another, better way. But as an oldie, I don't know what that is exactly.
I'm certainly an oldie as well! Yes, we need to reach people another way, but I am not altogether convinced that such a way exists. We need to be open in the future and see what unfolds and how best to respond.
The MSM headlines were still out there. People saw those. And they painted Trump as tough, Biden as ineffective, and Harris as unqualified, no matter how accurate the articles were. Headlines matter.
I think problems with communication from the administration about Covid and Ukraine related inflation led them to fail in reelection (like all those other developed nation governments on that graph Simon posted)
I was thinking about FDR leading the nation during the great depression. He not only pushed through legislation, but through his "fireside chats", bypassed the legacy media of the time, and spoke to the people, the electorate, directly. From what I understand, he explained in simple language some pretty complex economic information and won reelection in 1936 by even larger margins than in 1932 even though the unemployment rate had only dropped from 23.6 % to 16.9% and the Great Depression was far from over. Leading the American Nation through that crisis was genius.
I know it's a totally different media landscape and electorate than in 1932, but having the nation's leader speak directly to the people, educate them and explain what to expect, what he/she is doing to fight for them and showing the results of his/her work (like the economic data Simon presents) as time goes by might have changed opinions about Biden and this election's results. Not press conferences where he's speaking to reporters or formal speeches, but informal talks directly to the people of the nation as a person, as a leader, as someone happy to explain the details to them and not looking down on their ignorance or assuming knowledge they don't have. I wonder if that connection with a leader might be some of the draw for Trump supporters with his rallies where he speaks directly to them?
Anyway, I suspect there are some lessons we could learn from FDR and his connection to the electorate and use of media that we could implement going forward. There's a good chance the next Democratic President will come into office because of a crisis (whether economic or other), and how they leverage the media and connect to the people will be SO important. Anyway, that's what I've been pondering.
This is really a thoughtful comment. The media landscape is entirely different now, but figuring out ways to use the bully pulpit that is still available to the president is a good idea.
I think Dems must figure out a way to actually create a communications ecosphere that can reach average folks to compete w Fox News and Clear Channel’s lies. This will be tough, but it’s essential.
I do not think Democrats are entirely to blame about messaging, any more than we are to blame for the other side’s Electoral College advantage. It’s structural.
We have to stay within the truth. They can say whatever people want to hear. The truth is complex while pandering is simple.
Trump says he will fix high prices with tariffs, claiming other countries will pay us.
Democrats say we will fix high prices by adding manufacturing jobs, expanded tax credits, and enforcing existing tax laws. We have to increase how much money people have, not lower prices, because we don’t want a recession. It has already started working, to the point where the economy is the envy of the world, but manufacturing plants and job skills take time to build, and we need to get consensus in Congress.
Trump says people’s economic problems are caused by immigrants.
We say they are caused by a lot of factors including lingering effects from Covid and years of a do-nothing Congress and Russia messing with oil prices, along with many other things.
Trump takes credit for sending people money during Covid. He says he will “protect women.” He pretends that he can just order the country to be prosperous.
What possible messaging could compete with “I will use my magic wand”?
Why inflation started (supply chain issues caused by Covid) was never really explained properly to the public in terms rural America might understand. And while all of that wasn’t on Trump his poor handling of Covid didn’t help. D’s needed to hammer at that then daily what they were doing to fix it (Chips Act, Infrastructure Act and Inflation reduction Act) and how that would help and how long it might take for it to take hold. Difficult task. Very difficult. Add to that why the Fed needed to raise rates from 1% to 6% to slow the economy down, tough sell. Very difficult to message. We needed superior communication skills that our leader lacked and constant communication with the public. Didn’t happen. It was an uphill battle especially in rural America. Inflation is a killer issue. Prices are transparent to every American. Easy to understand and easier to blame those in power.
Agree. But, people not making or barely making ends meet want relief NOW. $25k toward a house, $6K credit for a newborn, $50K credit for a new business, 3M new houses, etc don't help most of them & not in the near term. A tax cut and stop price gouging--how much will that help & when?
I don't think these folks answer polls or participate in focus groups. Do they vote? Some do. Many have given up on the gov't and/or are angry. At least, Trump seems to be angry too.
And, how do we get a louder, more effective voice than FOX and all the right-wing podcasts?
Thank you for your continued leadership. Along with Hubbell, Hopium has been one of my north stars. Data + optimism + action is a great formula. Biden was heroic. We need to understand why people didn’t get it. I am an entrepreneur who focused on sales. What we know was that people are tuned into their own radio station: WIFM (what’s in it for me). Biden’s awesome policies need to be regularly and loudly discussed in terms of benefits to individuals in formats low info voters used. Kamala began that process but I think it was too late. MAGA lies were louder and more pervasive. In addition, there needed to be more marketing about the causes of inflation (Covid/Ukraine/bird flu/price gouging). Low info voters think President has power over all + would benefit from explanations. BTW, MAGAs are now blaming egg prices on bird flu. Grrrrr….
Republican voters were steeped in misinformation about what Democrats stood for vs GOPers. This short, 10 minute recording of Heather Cox Richardson will make that clear. And if you're in a hurry, start it at minute 3.
My strong feeling from listening to this 10 minute post from Heather Cox Richardson is that Trump won because his voters were going on misinformation--that a lot of Trump voters favored Democratic Policies, and would have voted for Harris had they not been steeped in misinformation.
If you have an email list, send it to them. Send it to your close friends and family. Every bit helps. Feel free to take what I have directly above, and send it out. You don't need to include my name. We just need to get this info out as quickly as possible .
Curing ballots here in NC today people. Giving "On Tyranny" to everyone on my Xmas list. Hiking in the woods to feed my soul. Playing with my dog.. Getting more friends to connect to Hopium. Life got harder but the choice between good and evil got even more stark and easier to discern for people who had been sleepwalking. Let's pull them onto our side.
I don't know how to pull people to our side. I just don't know if I can ever get through to people so steeped in mis/disinformation. People's minds don't change unless they're open to it. I know it's possible because I have changed my beliefs drastically from what I was raised to believe, but education opened that door for me. How do we find the people whose minds are open? This disinformation problem is what is grieving me most right now. It's just so insidious.
Alison - the wildfire disinformation has long concerned me to. I listen/read a lot of right wing media and they are coordinated, sophisticated in their lying….most of them under the guise of being Christian! As a lifelong, Christian, the whole thing grinds my teeth. I think a lot about what it must have been like after the invention of the printing press - which allowed good (and bad) information to spread faster. The internet is like the printing press times 1,000,000 in the spread of information.
I have spent a good deal of time thinking about how we all agree on the same information -what’s true - which is necessary to a healthy, democracy. Trump and his GOP are a fountain of lies and many people who I know and love have long brought into at least some of this fountain of lies. Frankly, I feel like a lot of people are ensorcelled by Trump which is just another way of saying it’s a cult.
People voted for a traitor, a convicted felon and a sexual abuser. How do we ever get around this capacity for stupidity, selfishness and the worship of hatred. Rather than have some faith that their needs might be addressed by the party that cares about democracy and freedom they decided that a psychopath who has never had one regard for anyone in his life was somehow going to give a crap about them. I'm sorry this was not a normal election about policy differences. This was existential. Whether democracy lives or dies. Whether people are cared for or harmed or killed. This was clearly a moral choice if there ever was one. Hitler or Kamala. My fellow Americans chose Hitler on the off chance the price of eggs might come down. I think it is very hard to fight this. The people have out and out voted for evil.
Katie Porter was on MSNBC a short time ago. She had her little white board and did a great presentation on what tariffs and deportation would lead to= higher prices. I am going to miss her! A practical, single mom who was amazing in the House, destroying R's b..s. !
I wish she would have won the Senate race in California. Adam Schiff will be fine, but he's just another establishment type that voters are growing tired of.
Adam Schiff was a stellar House member and will be a stellar Senator. He's a great communicator and wise voice for democracy. Katie shouldn't have run. It was too much too soon, although I understand why she did since the opportunities don't open up too often.
I could have told her she would lose. Sometimes, I wonder, hey, if I see something, why can't people "in the know" not see it? What am I missing? I was so disappointed she ran bc she was so needed in the House.
I think Katie Porter should have stayed in the House and/or worked out something with the Party. Too many Dems running in the same race often hurts us more than helps. Did she have a right to run? Absolutely. Was is it prudent? I don't think so and didn't think so when she decided to run for the Senate.
The voters will snap out of their spell one day and desire competent leadership. My biggest prayers is that it doesn’t take an unspeakable event to snap the voters out of their current torpor.
Porter is great. So is Schiff. The Democratic Party’s bench is devastating. This was a very tough election, but we have all the tools we need to beat those lying fascists.
When you say "democrats have bet all their political capital on ideology and political correctness," who do you mean exactly? Politicians? Democrat voters? Social justice warriors? Right-wing media likes to make a huge deal out of every little thing liberal people do, screaming about the "woke agenda," and most of the stories are big nothing-burgers or about young college students who got fired up about something, not about the actual Democrat legislators fighting for people's rights and trying to pass bills to help the working class. I agree Democrats have a branding problem, but I don't believe "wokeness" is the issue. Let's not help the right-wing media continue to spread this narrative.
Horseshit. What’s the actual data - not exit polls - about this multi-racial coalition? Dems need to improve messaging and Simon and others have some good ideas on that. But this whole Dems are too elitist to talk to real people nonsense is frankly insulting to all the real people that did work in this community. What did you do Mark? Before you insult us, maybe you could tell us what exactly you offered to the 24 campaign besides some bullshit pundit-style talking points.
Agreed. This campaign showed me more than ever that black women are the backbone of the Democratic party, and as a white woman, I will defend their courage and hard work till the day I die. They are anything but elitist.
There was not a massive shift to the right in the election. Trump will win by 2 points at best, and will be closer to 50 than 51. We have to be careful here about understanding where we are. We have work to do but folks need to stay connected to the data here. Thank you.
Sorry, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck but says I am not a racist or a bigot or sexist or I just care about the price of eggs, um they just might be a duck.
Hi Orion, I understand your point, however Trump got roughly the same number of votes as in 2020. The reason Harris lost was that millions of Democrats who voted for Biden in 2020 did not vote this time. So, the perplexing thing is not that additional voters were drawn to Trump (they weren't) it's that they did not vote for Harris. Understanding why is an essential first stage to recovery.
I am taking this post down for it is not true our work did not make a difference, and that turnout was down in the battlegrounds. How else did we win all these down ballot races in the battlegrounds and flip House seats? Please, do better.
People who didn't like our candidate's color and anatomy. And people who are so incensed by our left's causes--transgenders, "defunding the police", etc.--that they were more than willing to change those little nerf balls the Republicans throw rather than vote for a big messy concept like democracy.
1. Fear. Baked into the amygdala. Fear of "the other". Trump's commercials invoked the Jungian collective subconscious. Most effective ad: girls' sports.
2, Salesmanship. Psyops can make an Alaskan buy snow water. 90% voted contrary to their own economic and physical health. Why would someone on SSI (or any government benefit) vote to cut it.? Hispanics and Moslems supported a guy who will deport them -- even if they are citizens. During his administration he was working on "denaturalization."https://immpolicytracking.org/media/documents/ACLU_Fact_Sheet_on_Denaturalization.pdf
I'm not sure it was all Democrats; Michael Podhorzer worried it was the squishy undecideds that gave Biden his majority and they were not acting like they were voting this year, something he warned about in mid Oct and implored the campaign to do something about by warning about the dangers of trump, which these voters were not seeing. And guess what? Harris DID start doing that, and today I hear people criticizing her for doing so. I mean, here we go with the circular firing squad....I think I read some expert who said trump may have run the worst campaign he had ever seen....sometimes the better candidate just doesn't win. Joe Trippi hinted strongly that sexism was indeed a factor as well. We fought the good fight; my prediction is trump will end up impeached again if he manages to live another 4years.
yeah, the circular firing squad is inevitable bc every complaint pundits and pols have had for decades gets trotted out, and there's not a useful insight in the whole bunch. Maher's "Dems are snobs and babies" thesis is as dumb as it sounds.
should Dems do a searching post-mortem? look at what needs improvement? be willing to make changes? absolutely. always. but this wholesale trashing, columnists saying the Democratic Party must be rebuilt from the ground up, is hot garbage.
Imho, it’s been years since Bill Maher was worth watching or had anything worthwhile to say. Every time I’ve tried to give him another chance, Bill Maher has been consistently annoying and off-the-mark.
Very right Russ. And the question is and always will be how to turn our old voters out. If you did it right, and consistently do it right, I think you will find that you gain some additional voters too.
Where were the young people who care about climate change, who accept transgenders, who lived through school shootings?
I'm still not convinced that the outcome is legitimate, that in the face of Trump 2, a more extreme and degraded version with a track record and criminal history, that 12 million more people opted out of the vote.
I gave up on the MAGAs and MSM. I would go back to Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy and also stop ignoring the Blue State voters. Unless I am mistaken, it was under Rahm Emanuel's days as President Obama's Chief of Staff, this strategy was dropped. One thing that the republicans do very well is plan long term; we need to do the same and stop the circular firing squad. Just my two cents and frankly no one cares what solid Dem voter Cindy H thinks.
Solid dem voter Janice Fahy cares! I too believe in the 50-state strategy and, frankly, we’re much further ahead in that effort than many think. Georgia & North Carolina are now MUCH better organized states for Democratic success. Every single state in this nation is a purple state - this I believe to the bottom of my heart.
But I get the feeling that people were dissatisfied that President Biden didn’t magically make everything shiny on Day One of his administration. There are still problems, even if they are (were) getting better, so apparently many people call that a failure.
In my personal experience, many Trump voters have very low opinions of their fellow Americans, and they especially doubt that politicians would try to help them. Of course, they're the ones electing the politicians who obstruct every possible legislation that would do them any good, focusing instead on culture war issues and wasting time and tax dollars.
Hey Simon and all - I want to tell you how much I appreciate you helping us know where to donate and volunteer so that candidates could be helped over the finish line. I donated and worked more for this election than ever in my life, and it felt so good to see "my" candidates win! I hope you keep Hopium or something similar going to help us with those decisions going forward. Where / how to best put our time and money, as well as just the camaraderie and your pep talks, meant the world to me this election. I appreciate you and everyone here!
Thank you for posting today, Simon. Can we somehow divide ourselves into states and then maybe form sub-threads? (I don't too much about how to do this). This way, we could brainstorm state-specific ways to take action going forward. For example, in NJ (my state) we have a governors race coming quickly in 2025.
This election and the 2021 gubernatorial was a bellwether. Murphy won by just 3% in 21, and all House elections were really close this year, including sapphire blue Passaic County! New Jerseyans are tired of the BS going on in the NJleg — rolling back transparency in ORPA (open public records act) and now more shenanigans with the County (Party) Line ballot design! Instead of just codifying the ballot design into an office block as mandated by the judge in the case (see Andy Kim’s lawsuit from this spring) and making ballot design like every other freaking state, NJleg are having a collective hissy fit over fair ballots and are trying to shoehorn a party line within an office block design. I could name other items, but you get the drift. If the NJDSC doesn’t get its shit together it’s going to be a route.
This exactly! Dems will lose big in 2025 if things don't change. Pamela, I am disappointed in all the potential Dem candidates. We really need an outsider with no allegiance to the Dem party machine. I wish Andy Kim had a clone.
Interesting - from the non-local perspective it would seem like a blue state in the midst of trump’s first year in office will respond strongly against the incumbent White House party. But local/state issues still matter so hopefully the NJ Dems get things figured out.
Murphy was the first Dem to win a 2nd term in some 40 years; so that was a huge accomplishment. And the polls were wrong; showing him up by double digits. Pollsters just aren't capturing R voters IMO.
That's a great question. What we need to do next in MA (my state) is different than in a blue state with more competitive elections (we have the least competitive in the nation, allowing for inertia and lack of boldness in legislating). And maybe different from what needs to happen in redder states, though that's beyond my experience.
That said, something consistent across states and across different podcasts seems to be not disbanding our teams and working on local and state races between or in addition to national, which is how my community group formed (Don Berwick/Mr. single payer healthcare's race in 2014 for governor). This year, we were successful on down-ballot legal system races, and will face Boston city races in 2025, where we've been successful over this decade. It would help to be connected to more groups from around the state.
Rooting for you to kick that putz to the curb. In NJ our job is perhaps more difficult — to keep the Dem trifecta in the face of a state party machine that is truly out of touch with (or simply doesn’t care about) the electorate.
I'm proud of Oregon. My current home voted Democrats up and down the ticket, including flipping the US House seat to Bynum. I'm even happy for Portland. Keith Wilson is a pragmatic guy who will bring some much needed leadership to that city. Though I live in a suburb near by, a thriving Portland is beneficial to the metro and the state as a whole. It needs help. It needs someone who can make tough decisions. I think he'll be able to do that.
It's a pleasure to note that trump got no more votes this time than last time. I probably shouldn't have been so cautiously optimistic, since the polls really were neck-and-neck, which meant trump had as good a chance, essentially, as Harris. Many of us weren't prepared emotionally for what we know intellectually that we should have been prepared for. I do think the deciding factor was increased prices, with a touch of racism and misogyny. Many people who ended up voting for trump (and who may have voted for Harris if they didn't remember the lower price of eggs under trump, and have some amnesia about his presidency) are not MAGA and certainly not on board with the MAGA agenda. And only 30% of eligible voters voted for trump. That was enough, certainly, but it's sad when such a low percentage of American can determine who the President is. We really do need to fix journalism in this country, and develop multiple avenues for countering the right-wing disinformation machine. But we can do this!
Hi David, The key is to have an offer for those who tend to be more Democratic in 2025 and 2026 so that a movement can be built with a stronger likelihood of voters actually turning out. If there are 'blue waves' in 2025 and more especially 2026 that could be the launchpad for the next POTUS election. First, it's necessary to understand whether it was inflation, immigration etc that made people stay home.
Well, I expect that Trump manages to increase inflation by his hurtful policies. Actually, their choice was like in the Bible with Esau trading his birthright away for a bowl of porridge. I only receive 1000 a month in SS yet I won't trade in democracy for a dozen eggs!
I do think a lot of the economic voters, many of who aren’t trump fans, didn’t see him as a threat to democracy. They’re low information voters. To them democracy is a somewhat abstract concept but the price of things is very real.
Thank you, @Simon. Can you update the article with a link to the Tuesday, November 19th, 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better presentation? I couldn't see the link. Thank you!
Self reporting. Nice bike ride with my posse yesterday. Long walk with my two English Cockers on a nice autumn morning in Oregon. Just opened Hopium news and I see Simon being Simon. Optimistic and still in the fight. Cheers Hopium Mates
It is beautiful today. We hung a Veterans Day wreath. Walked and appreciated the fall foliage to deep breathe and reset. Trying to create a step by step coping lab for horrible still coming.
Just read that the Senate race in Arizona was called for Ruben Gallego! That puts a smile on my face! We will be the opposition and have to keep the faith!
Curing ballots today for Ruben & AZ House. Thursday (or which day!!!!??) cured for Rosen. She WON!!
Decision Desk HQ called the AZ Senate for Ruben last night.
Yes, but AP hasn't and that's all that matters.
I’m curious, why does AP matter more than Decision Desk HQ and/or the networks? Moreover, it is entirely possible that AP prematurely called the Pennsylvania Senate race for McCormick.
Yeah - PA Senate could be some egg on the AP’s face if it goes to recount.
Thank you for doing this. I'm trapped working all weekend (lawyer) but made some small donations today to House candidates that asked for help with similar efforts.
We all do what we can
Thank you!! The link to the Tuesday program doesn't work.
Yes! I came here to say that.
Can we still win the house??
BTC had an analysis of it yesterday. Basically, Democrats would have to win every remaining race to retake the majority. The likelihood of that happening is slim. The most likely scenario is Republicans retain control, but Democrats make gains, meaning Mike Johnson will have perhaps a 1-3 seat majority only of the House.
The only Speaker I've ever seen knowing how to govern with a slim majority is Nancy Pelosi. This congress will do so little good for our country that I think the 2026 election will be very good for Dems. I hope Hopium is still around then! :)
I wish she would stop publicly blaming our current president.
I have not been following much these days. I turned off all notifications. Nancy has been blaming Biden?
I haven't seen this either - post a link, Colleen? Thx.
Yeah, she needs to pipe it down. It's scapegoating in my opinion. It looks cheap.
Hi Kent, Absolutely. There are two years to prepare for a 'blue wave' election. That should be the ambition. Good House candidates with a good platform and a contrast between Trump (or by then maybe Vance).
I'm in, too Russel. I wonder if the MAGA movement starts to fall apart after Trump. They do a lot of infighting it seems already.
Cults have a strong tendency to dissipate after the cult leader dies.
I do think that we Democrats did not understand how much inflation hurt a lot of people…I remember filling up the tank for $50 and thinking, “This must be very hard for people making modest salaries….” And rents sooo high…and $200 on groceries every trip…I think when Biden and Harris didn’t acknowledge how bad it was for people and just touted all the achievements (which are considerable and will pay off….) people of modest means just felt the administration didn’t care about them…
I think it was more the info channels they listen to
Mary, the VP's central message was that she will going to lower costs for families and the campaign spent more than $200m on ads about lowering costs. It was the centerpiece of her entire campaign. Additionally, we passed something called the inflation reduction act in 2022 which actually lowered inflation, dramatically. The notion floating around our family that Biden and Harris did not talk about inflation and lowering costs is just false. In fact the VP rarely mentioned the "accomplishments" in the general election. It was all about inflation and lowering costs.
Yes, but pre-campaign, it seems to me that the Biden Administration failed to sufficiently impact the narrative about inflation. Instead, the narrative was formed primarily by the Republicans, by Fox News and right-wing media, and their talking points were echoed by the bothsiderist mainstream media.
Biden did a great job improving the realities, but failed at the narrative – hence the widespread negative perception of the economy. Politically, perception matters even more than reality.
By the time Kamala Harris became the candidate, her campaign was fighting with a huge handicap. Her campaign and messaging – incredible and stellar (!) – had a really hard time penetrating the various news bubbles.
I think that is right. They could've done a better job managing the narrative.
But I think also there is an assumption that there was a way they could've done things differently and not gotten punished. Mitigating the damage was I suspect about all one could hope for.
I think though a lot of convincing arguments have been made that she did not effectively separate herself from Biden. It was tough to run both with legitimate pride at the accomplishments, but somehow run away from Biden at the same time.
Rightly or wrongly, Biden was unpopular. I think she needed to generate greater distance.
But this is all Monday Morning QBing. Altogether she was a good candidate. Not perfect. But under very difficult circumstances she ran an outstanding campaign. Some disadvantages she had could only be mitigated I think.
I’m talking about 3.5 years of messaging and narrative-forming (or rather the lack of it) by the Biden Administration. I have absolutely no criticism of Kamala Harris or her campaign’s messaging. Those were superb.
Artic always appreciate your comments. I agree Biden was not so good at branding. Every infrastructure project big sign. Also Trump dominated billboards. They should have invested in that more. We do fine w educated voters but lower info prez yrs need more of a message. Maybe w our ground game we could promote accomplishments more. Also Trump really does maximize his vote. So many of his votes were for him only and no down ballot. The pattern seems strong that we overperform in midterms bc of the electorate makeup and get swamped in prez yrs. And in an anti incumbent yr it really was like climbing Everest.
I kept saying that everywhere we traveled and saw all these projects in process: "There should be a big sign branding this to the Biden Admin!"
Yes. Biden was heroic and did a lousy job of translating policies into benefits to individuals. In sales, there is a winning concept. Everyone is tuned into their own radio station: WIFM (What’s In It For Me). It is vital to translate policies/candidates into very clear messages about how individuals will benefit from them. Dems didn’t do that.
By far the biggest problem was misinformation from the Right, and probably the russians.
This is an 11 minute podcast from Heather Cox Richardson. If you're in a hurry, start at minute 3.
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-8-2024-bb7?utm_source=podcast-email%2Csubstack&publication_id=20533&post_id=151445797&utm_campaign=email-play-on-substack&utm_medium=email&r=3ihqfl&triedRedirect=true
My daily read always includes Hopium and Heather’s "Letters From an American". She’s always excellent!
I also highly recommend this conversation between Jon Stewart and Heather Cox Richardson. Brilliant historical and political perspective of this moment by HCR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7cKOaBdFWo
Communication is so important in todays world and something Biden just can’t do with his speech and age issues. Instead of Buttigig in transportation he should have been in some position communicating to the public and going on Fox to refute their lies.
I always thought Pete Buttigieg should have replaced Jen Psaki when she stepped down. He is such an effective communicator and doing it all with a gentlemanly manner. I think Karine Jean-Pierre is great too, but for this time, I think Pete Buttigieg is much more effective.
https://jesspiper.substack.com/p/barbie-and-the-beast
No. Please read Jess Piper on the dark corners of the web where so many get their info. They could not have managed the narrative without going toe to toe there. https://jesspiper.substack.com/p/barbie-and-the-beast
Let's just be honest about this. Biden stunk at touting his admin's own accomplishments, and not just during election season. I'm not going to speculate why that was but regardless, it's the truth. This left a huge hole which was filled by right-wing media. The bully pulpit was squandered here and once that took hold it was very difficult for Harris to move that needle.
Biden never explained why there was inflation so that people could understand that it was worldwide. Right now I just feel like fox news and right wing propaganda is unbeatable. Most of the country still thinks the economy is horrible. That will all change when Trump gets in there and fox news tells everyone how great the economy is.
I truly believe you are taking too much of the blame for the Dems. People believe what they want to believe. I don't feel there is anything Biden could have said that would have made much difference.
With all respect, the reason Trump was elected is bc the CEO's who only care about their money, the MAGAs and the wannabes came out to vote for Trump because of what he stands for not in spite of it. No matter what they say, I know people who say they vote for Trump bc of X, Y and the price of gas or eggs. They never say they vote for him bc they, too, believe immigrants don't belong here (even if they too are immigrants) or because Brown and Black people fill in the blank. I believe there is no one single issue that would have changed the outcome. Agree the Democratic Party does need to start with modernizing and finding a new way to communicate and fight. Stop playing by the MSM's rules that only the Dems seem to abide by. I DO believe the Dems have to accept that the MSM is not fair, balanced or interested in reporting facts. They, too, have their own interests. In my opinion, if there is one big failing, it's that a lot of people on our side completely underestimate Trump's racist, misogyny ACTUALLY appeals and speaks to those that want to be above all the "others". Trump and the money behind him know this.
I largely agree with you. The Dems are spending so much capital on "what we did wrong," when, sometimes, it is doing what is right that makes you lose.
To paraphrase Tony Michaels, those are excuses for voting trump, not reasons.
💯 Agree
I have to disagree. The MSM just didn't cover it. I sent maybe 6 letters to NYT asking them to please cover where the money was going, what was being built. Crickets. We need our own media as big and invasive as fox.
I disagree with your disagree. No one who votes for Trump ever reads the MSM. On the rare occasion they do, it is to declare how biased they are.
:) I don't think we disagree! The MSM has failed us all. We need to reach people another, better way. But as an oldie, I don't know what that is exactly.
I'm certainly an oldie as well! Yes, we need to reach people another way, but I am not altogether convinced that such a way exists. We need to be open in the future and see what unfolds and how best to respond.
The MSM headlines were still out there. People saw those. And they painted Trump as tough, Biden as ineffective, and Harris as unqualified, no matter how accurate the articles were. Headlines matter.
Yes! Totally agree!
I think problems with communication from the administration about Covid and Ukraine related inflation led them to fail in reelection (like all those other developed nation governments on that graph Simon posted)
I was thinking about FDR leading the nation during the great depression. He not only pushed through legislation, but through his "fireside chats", bypassed the legacy media of the time, and spoke to the people, the electorate, directly. From what I understand, he explained in simple language some pretty complex economic information and won reelection in 1936 by even larger margins than in 1932 even though the unemployment rate had only dropped from 23.6 % to 16.9% and the Great Depression was far from over. Leading the American Nation through that crisis was genius.
I know it's a totally different media landscape and electorate than in 1932, but having the nation's leader speak directly to the people, educate them and explain what to expect, what he/she is doing to fight for them and showing the results of his/her work (like the economic data Simon presents) as time goes by might have changed opinions about Biden and this election's results. Not press conferences where he's speaking to reporters or formal speeches, but informal talks directly to the people of the nation as a person, as a leader, as someone happy to explain the details to them and not looking down on their ignorance or assuming knowledge they don't have. I wonder if that connection with a leader might be some of the draw for Trump supporters with his rallies where he speaks directly to them?
Anyway, I suspect there are some lessons we could learn from FDR and his connection to the electorate and use of media that we could implement going forward. There's a good chance the next Democratic President will come into office because of a crisis (whether economic or other), and how they leverage the media and connect to the people will be SO important. Anyway, that's what I've been pondering.
This is really a thoughtful comment. The media landscape is entirely different now, but figuring out ways to use the bully pulpit that is still available to the president is a good idea.
I think Dems must figure out a way to actually create a communications ecosphere that can reach average folks to compete w Fox News and Clear Channel’s lies. This will be tough, but it’s essential.
I do not think Democrats are entirely to blame about messaging, any more than we are to blame for the other side’s Electoral College advantage. It’s structural.
We have to stay within the truth. They can say whatever people want to hear. The truth is complex while pandering is simple.
Trump says he will fix high prices with tariffs, claiming other countries will pay us.
Democrats say we will fix high prices by adding manufacturing jobs, expanded tax credits, and enforcing existing tax laws. We have to increase how much money people have, not lower prices, because we don’t want a recession. It has already started working, to the point where the economy is the envy of the world, but manufacturing plants and job skills take time to build, and we need to get consensus in Congress.
Trump says people’s economic problems are caused by immigrants.
We say they are caused by a lot of factors including lingering effects from Covid and years of a do-nothing Congress and Russia messing with oil prices, along with many other things.
Trump takes credit for sending people money during Covid. He says he will “protect women.” He pretends that he can just order the country to be prosperous.
What possible messaging could compete with “I will use my magic wand”?
Exactly- what were we supposed to do, lie to people like Trump did about "lowering grocery prices?"
Why inflation started (supply chain issues caused by Covid) was never really explained properly to the public in terms rural America might understand. And while all of that wasn’t on Trump his poor handling of Covid didn’t help. D’s needed to hammer at that then daily what they were doing to fix it (Chips Act, Infrastructure Act and Inflation reduction Act) and how that would help and how long it might take for it to take hold. Difficult task. Very difficult. Add to that why the Fed needed to raise rates from 1% to 6% to slow the economy down, tough sell. Very difficult to message. We needed superior communication skills that our leader lacked and constant communication with the public. Didn’t happen. It was an uphill battle especially in rural America. Inflation is a killer issue. Prices are transparent to every American. Easy to understand and easier to blame those in power.
Agree. But, people not making or barely making ends meet want relief NOW. $25k toward a house, $6K credit for a newborn, $50K credit for a new business, 3M new houses, etc don't help most of them & not in the near term. A tax cut and stop price gouging--how much will that help & when?
I don't think these folks answer polls or participate in focus groups. Do they vote? Some do. Many have given up on the gov't and/or are angry. At least, Trump seems to be angry too.
And, how do we get a louder, more effective voice than FOX and all the right-wing podcasts?
Thank you for your continued leadership. Along with Hubbell, Hopium has been one of my north stars. Data + optimism + action is a great formula. Biden was heroic. We need to understand why people didn’t get it. I am an entrepreneur who focused on sales. What we know was that people are tuned into their own radio station: WIFM (what’s in it for me). Biden’s awesome policies need to be regularly and loudly discussed in terms of benefits to individuals in formats low info voters used. Kamala began that process but I think it was too late. MAGA lies were louder and more pervasive. In addition, there needed to be more marketing about the causes of inflation (Covid/Ukraine/bird flu/price gouging). Low info voters think President has power over all + would benefit from explanations. BTW, MAGAs are now blaming egg prices on bird flu. Grrrrr….
Republican voters were steeped in misinformation about what Democrats stood for vs GOPers. This short, 10 minute recording of Heather Cox Richardson will make that clear. And if you're in a hurry, start it at minute 3.
My strong feeling from listening to this 10 minute post from Heather Cox Richardson is that Trump won because his voters were going on misinformation--that a lot of Trump voters favored Democratic Policies, and would have voted for Harris had they not been steeped in misinformation.
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-8-2024-bb7?utm_source=podcast-email%2Csubstack&publication_id=20533&post_id=151445797&utm_campaign=email-play-on-substack&utm_medium=email&r=3ihqfl&triedRedirect=true
Absolutely stellar analysis by HCR. I was going to post it today, but you beat me to it. Thanks.
If you have an email list, send it to them. Send it to your close friends and family. Every bit helps. Feel free to take what I have directly above, and send it out. You don't need to include my name. We just need to get this info out as quickly as possible .
Curing ballots here in NC today people. Giving "On Tyranny" to everyone on my Xmas list. Hiking in the woods to feed my soul. Playing with my dog.. Getting more friends to connect to Hopium. Life got harder but the choice between good and evil got even more stark and easier to discern for people who had been sleepwalking. Let's pull them onto our side.
I don't know how to pull people to our side. I just don't know if I can ever get through to people so steeped in mis/disinformation. People's minds don't change unless they're open to it. I know it's possible because I have changed my beliefs drastically from what I was raised to believe, but education opened that door for me. How do we find the people whose minds are open? This disinformation problem is what is grieving me most right now. It's just so insidious.
I think this is something that will happen in the "find out" space after the "eff around" results are seen.
Alison - the wildfire disinformation has long concerned me to. I listen/read a lot of right wing media and they are coordinated, sophisticated in their lying….most of them under the guise of being Christian! As a lifelong, Christian, the whole thing grinds my teeth. I think a lot about what it must have been like after the invention of the printing press - which allowed good (and bad) information to spread faster. The internet is like the printing press times 1,000,000 in the spread of information.
I have spent a good deal of time thinking about how we all agree on the same information -what’s true - which is necessary to a healthy, democracy. Trump and his GOP are a fountain of lies and many people who I know and love have long brought into at least some of this fountain of lies. Frankly, I feel like a lot of people are ensorcelled by Trump which is just another way of saying it’s a cult.
Giving that book away too. Also putting it in the book exchange pods in my neighborhood
Great idea!
People voted for a traitor, a convicted felon and a sexual abuser. How do we ever get around this capacity for stupidity, selfishness and the worship of hatred. Rather than have some faith that their needs might be addressed by the party that cares about democracy and freedom they decided that a psychopath who has never had one regard for anyone in his life was somehow going to give a crap about them. I'm sorry this was not a normal election about policy differences. This was existential. Whether democracy lives or dies. Whether people are cared for or harmed or killed. This was clearly a moral choice if there ever was one. Hitler or Kamala. My fellow Americans chose Hitler on the off chance the price of eggs might come down. I think it is very hard to fight this. The people have out and out voted for evil.
Katie Porter was on MSNBC a short time ago. She had her little white board and did a great presentation on what tariffs and deportation would lead to= higher prices. I am going to miss her! A practical, single mom who was amazing in the House, destroying R's b..s. !
She would be great doing a podcast breaking down issues into sharable digestible vids.
I'd love to see her in a podcast. But would she be singing to the choir?
The choir needs singing right now! <3
If for no other reason so we can then use her teaching to teach others!
I wish she would have won the Senate race in California. Adam Schiff will be fine, but he's just another establishment type that voters are growing tired of.
BK those establishment types just won races for Senate, gov and the House all over the country.
True. I think I just like Katie Porter and I'm sad she'll no longer be in Congress. Schiff will be a great Senator.
Schiff will be a beyond great Senator.
I think Katie Porter was doing so much good in the House. It's too bad she gave up her seat - again just my humble opinion. I like Adam Schiff.
Adam Schiff was a stellar House member and will be a stellar Senator. He's a great communicator and wise voice for democracy. Katie shouldn't have run. It was too much too soon, although I understand why she did since the opportunities don't open up too often.
I could have told her she would lose. Sometimes, I wonder, hey, if I see something, why can't people "in the know" not see it? What am I missing? I was so disappointed she ran bc she was so needed in the House.
I think Katie Porter should have stayed in the House and/or worked out something with the Party. Too many Dems running in the same race often hurts us more than helps. Did she have a right to run? Absolutely. Was is it prudent? I don't think so and didn't think so when she decided to run for the Senate.
Too bad she couldn’t keep get house seat.
The voters will snap out of their spell one day and desire competent leadership. My biggest prayers is that it doesn’t take an unspeakable event to snap the voters out of their current torpor.
Porter is great. So is Schiff. The Democratic Party’s bench is devastating. This was a very tough election, but we have all the tools we need to beat those lying fascists.
When you say "democrats have bet all their political capital on ideology and political correctness," who do you mean exactly? Politicians? Democrat voters? Social justice warriors? Right-wing media likes to make a huge deal out of every little thing liberal people do, screaming about the "woke agenda," and most of the stories are big nothing-burgers or about young college students who got fired up about something, not about the actual Democrat legislators fighting for people's rights and trying to pass bills to help the working class. I agree Democrats have a branding problem, but I don't believe "wokeness" is the issue. Let's not help the right-wing media continue to spread this narrative.
Yes, when people criticize us Democrats for political correctness or wokeness it sounds to me like they’ve been absorbing right-wing talking points.
Horseshit. What’s the actual data - not exit polls - about this multi-racial coalition? Dems need to improve messaging and Simon and others have some good ideas on that. But this whole Dems are too elitist to talk to real people nonsense is frankly insulting to all the real people that did work in this community. What did you do Mark? Before you insult us, maybe you could tell us what exactly you offered to the 24 campaign besides some bullshit pundit-style talking points.
Agreed. This campaign showed me more than ever that black women are the backbone of the Democratic party, and as a white woman, I will defend their courage and hard work till the day I die. They are anything but elitist.
Thank You Nathaniel!! that was horseshit from Mark!!!!
There was not a massive shift to the right in the election. Trump will win by 2 points at best, and will be closer to 50 than 51. We have to be careful here about understanding where we are. We have work to do but folks need to stay connected to the data here. Thank you.
Sorry, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck but says I am not a racist or a bigot or sexist or I just care about the price of eggs, um they just might be a duck.
You say, "we need to show them that we're one of them." Perhaps we need to show the voters that they are one of us?
Hi Orion, I understand your point, however Trump got roughly the same number of votes as in 2020. The reason Harris lost was that millions of Democrats who voted for Biden in 2020 did not vote this time. So, the perplexing thing is not that additional voters were drawn to Trump (they weren't) it's that they did not vote for Harris. Understanding why is an essential first stage to recovery.
In some ways, that makes it feel worse. Who stayed home?
I am taking this post down for it is not true our work did not make a difference, and that turnout was down in the battlegrounds. How else did we win all these down ballot races in the battlegrounds and flip House seats? Please, do better.
Grateful for that. It does make me feel better and more hopeful.
People who didn't like our candidate's color and anatomy. And people who are so incensed by our left's causes--transgenders, "defunding the police", etc.--that they were more than willing to change those little nerf balls the Republicans throw rather than vote for a big messy concept like democracy.
The data shows Harris should have won. The data was wrong.
Russian involvement should be investigated ASAP. Same for Musk. The Philadelphia case should just be a start. https://phillyda.org/news/phila-das-office-statement-on-federal-judge-remanding-suit-against-america-pac-elon-musk-to-pa-state-court-in-philadelphia/
1. Fear. Baked into the amygdala. Fear of "the other". Trump's commercials invoked the Jungian collective subconscious. Most effective ad: girls' sports.
2, Salesmanship. Psyops can make an Alaskan buy snow water. 90% voted contrary to their own economic and physical health. Why would someone on SSI (or any government benefit) vote to cut it.? Hispanics and Moslems supported a guy who will deport them -- even if they are citizens. During his administration he was working on "denaturalization."https://immpolicytracking.org/media/documents/ACLU_Fact_Sheet_on_Denaturalization.pdf
3 Maybe the proletariat are really "lumpen."
I'm not sure it was all Democrats; Michael Podhorzer worried it was the squishy undecideds that gave Biden his majority and they were not acting like they were voting this year, something he warned about in mid Oct and implored the campaign to do something about by warning about the dangers of trump, which these voters were not seeing. And guess what? Harris DID start doing that, and today I hear people criticizing her for doing so. I mean, here we go with the circular firing squad....I think I read some expert who said trump may have run the worst campaign he had ever seen....sometimes the better candidate just doesn't win. Joe Trippi hinted strongly that sexism was indeed a factor as well. We fought the good fight; my prediction is trump will end up impeached again if he manages to live another 4years.
yeah, the circular firing squad is inevitable bc every complaint pundits and pols have had for decades gets trotted out, and there's not a useful insight in the whole bunch. Maher's "Dems are snobs and babies" thesis is as dumb as it sounds.
should Dems do a searching post-mortem? look at what needs improvement? be willing to make changes? absolutely. always. but this wholesale trashing, columnists saying the Democratic Party must be rebuilt from the ground up, is hot garbage.
Didn't watch Maher. Practicing self care.
Imho, it’s been years since Bill Maher was worth watching or had anything worthwhile to say. Every time I’ve tried to give him another chance, Bill Maher has been consistently annoying and off-the-mark.
bc whatever the topic, it's always about him
I tuned him out when he said the Sept 11th attackers had a point.
Same here
He will never be impeached. He will now have the entire gov't by the balls, except for the Republicans who don't have any.
Agree with what you say except I doubt Trump gets impeached. Hope you're right and I am wrong.
Very right Russ. And the question is and always will be how to turn our old voters out. If you did it right, and consistently do it right, I think you will find that you gain some additional voters too.
Trump is 2-0 against women candidates.
Its not their fault, it's our backwards country.
Where were the young people who care about climate change, who accept transgenders, who lived through school shootings?
I'm still not convinced that the outcome is legitimate, that in the face of Trump 2, a more extreme and degraded version with a track record and criminal history, that 12 million more people opted out of the vote.
I gave up on the MAGAs and MSM. I would go back to Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy and also stop ignoring the Blue State voters. Unless I am mistaken, it was under Rahm Emanuel's days as President Obama's Chief of Staff, this strategy was dropped. One thing that the republicans do very well is plan long term; we need to do the same and stop the circular firing squad. Just my two cents and frankly no one cares what solid Dem voter Cindy H thinks.
Solid dem voter Janice Fahy cares! I too believe in the 50-state strategy and, frankly, we’re much further ahead in that effort than many think. Georgia & North Carolina are now MUCH better organized states for Democratic success. Every single state in this nation is a purple state - this I believe to the bottom of my heart.
Thank you 💙💙.
Long term planning is essential.
But I get the feeling that people were dissatisfied that President Biden didn’t magically make everything shiny on Day One of his administration. There are still problems, even if they are (were) getting better, so apparently many people call that a failure.
In my personal experience, many Trump voters have very low opinions of their fellow Americans, and they especially doubt that politicians would try to help them. Of course, they're the ones electing the politicians who obstruct every possible legislation that would do them any good, focusing instead on culture war issues and wasting time and tax dollars.
Hey Simon and all - I want to tell you how much I appreciate you helping us know where to donate and volunteer so that candidates could be helped over the finish line. I donated and worked more for this election than ever in my life, and it felt so good to see "my" candidates win! I hope you keep Hopium or something similar going to help us with those decisions going forward. Where / how to best put our time and money, as well as just the camaraderie and your pep talks, meant the world to me this election. I appreciate you and everyone here!
Totally agree!
I agree too! It was so wonderful to have the focus, and it was very effective!
Thank you for posting today, Simon. Can we somehow divide ourselves into states and then maybe form sub-threads? (I don't too much about how to do this). This way, we could brainstorm state-specific ways to take action going forward. For example, in NJ (my state) we have a governors race coming quickly in 2025.
I am going to talk to Substack about all this. Right now there is no way to do this easily here. I am open to trying to figure something out.
Thank you! I am bursting to spring into action somehow. just need some direction.
Fellow NJ-an here. The governor and statehouse races are going to be bruising, so I would be interested as well.
Why do you think they will be bruising?
This election and the 2021 gubernatorial was a bellwether. Murphy won by just 3% in 21, and all House elections were really close this year, including sapphire blue Passaic County! New Jerseyans are tired of the BS going on in the NJleg — rolling back transparency in ORPA (open public records act) and now more shenanigans with the County (Party) Line ballot design! Instead of just codifying the ballot design into an office block as mandated by the judge in the case (see Andy Kim’s lawsuit from this spring) and making ballot design like every other freaking state, NJleg are having a collective hissy fit over fair ballots and are trying to shoehorn a party line within an office block design. I could name other items, but you get the drift. If the NJDSC doesn’t get its shit together it’s going to be a route.
This exactly! Dems will lose big in 2025 if things don't change. Pamela, I am disappointed in all the potential Dem candidates. We really need an outsider with no allegiance to the Dem party machine. I wish Andy Kim had a clone.
Interesting - from the non-local perspective it would seem like a blue state in the midst of trump’s first year in office will respond strongly against the incumbent White House party. But local/state issues still matter so hopefully the NJ Dems get things figured out.
Murphy was the first Dem to win a 2nd term in some 40 years; so that was a huge accomplishment. And the polls were wrong; showing him up by double digits. Pollsters just aren't capturing R voters IMO.
That's a great question. What we need to do next in MA (my state) is different than in a blue state with more competitive elections (we have the least competitive in the nation, allowing for inertia and lack of boldness in legislating). And maybe different from what needs to happen in redder states, though that's beyond my experience.
That said, something consistent across states and across different podcasts seems to be not disbanding our teams and working on local and state races between or in addition to national, which is how my community group formed (Don Berwick/Mr. single payer healthcare's race in 2014 for governor). This year, we were successful on down-ballot legal system races, and will face Boston city races in 2025, where we've been successful over this decade. It would help to be connected to more groups from around the state.
I like how you think!
Yes, I’m in VA and Gov. Sweater Vest will be on his way out soon. We need to turn our purple back to blue.
Rooting for you to kick that putz to the curb. In NJ our job is perhaps more difficult — to keep the Dem trifecta in the face of a state party machine that is truly out of touch with (or simply doesn’t care about) the electorate.
I suspect The Lesson needed a little more time , praying for Hakeem …and always miracles. Thanks everyone, Simon, y’all .
I'm proud of Oregon. My current home voted Democrats up and down the ticket, including flipping the US House seat to Bynum. I'm even happy for Portland. Keith Wilson is a pragmatic guy who will bring some much needed leadership to that city. Though I live in a suburb near by, a thriving Portland is beneficial to the metro and the state as a whole. It needs help. It needs someone who can make tough decisions. I think he'll be able to do that.
Agreed!
Moving to Portland!!!
It's a pleasure to note that trump got no more votes this time than last time. I probably shouldn't have been so cautiously optimistic, since the polls really were neck-and-neck, which meant trump had as good a chance, essentially, as Harris. Many of us weren't prepared emotionally for what we know intellectually that we should have been prepared for. I do think the deciding factor was increased prices, with a touch of racism and misogyny. Many people who ended up voting for trump (and who may have voted for Harris if they didn't remember the lower price of eggs under trump, and have some amnesia about his presidency) are not MAGA and certainly not on board with the MAGA agenda. And only 30% of eligible voters voted for trump. That was enough, certainly, but it's sad when such a low percentage of American can determine who the President is. We really do need to fix journalism in this country, and develop multiple avenues for countering the right-wing disinformation machine. But we can do this!
Hi David, The key is to have an offer for those who tend to be more Democratic in 2025 and 2026 so that a movement can be built with a stronger likelihood of voters actually turning out. If there are 'blue waves' in 2025 and more especially 2026 that could be the launchpad for the next POTUS election. First, it's necessary to understand whether it was inflation, immigration etc that made people stay home.
Well, I expect that Trump manages to increase inflation by his hurtful policies. Actually, their choice was like in the Bible with Esau trading his birthright away for a bowl of porridge. I only receive 1000 a month in SS yet I won't trade in democracy for a dozen eggs!
And all the people said -- no, shouted -- "Amen!!"
I do think a lot of the economic voters, many of who aren’t trump fans, didn’t see him as a threat to democracy. They’re low information voters. To them democracy is a somewhat abstract concept but the price of things is very real.
Won't be an abstract for long and it is unlikely that he will lower costs - the inverse is true.
Thank you, @Simon. Can you update the article with a link to the Tuesday, November 19th, 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better presentation? I couldn't see the link. Thank you!
Friends, here's the link to sign up for With Dems - https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_TGJ8OeW1QvSJv-5A4exXjQ?amp_device_id=853e3ccc-eba5-470b-9500-3eece89a6e12&_device_id=853e3ccc-eba5-470b-9500-3eece89a6e12&_gl=1*nv8kmm*_gcl_au*MTY2NzI4MTg4OC4xNzI4ODM0NTc4*_ga*MjcwNTUwODE0LjE2OTQzMDE5MjQ.*_ga_L8TBF28DDX*MTczMTI2MDE2NC40NzEuMS4xNzMxMjYwMTcxLjAuMC4w&_ga=2.62374959.2046262415.1731256555-270550814.1694301924#/registration
And it is now in the post on the site too. Sorry about that. S
Self reporting. Nice bike ride with my posse yesterday. Long walk with my two English Cockers on a nice autumn morning in Oregon. Just opened Hopium news and I see Simon being Simon. Optimistic and still in the fight. Cheers Hopium Mates
It is beautiful today. We hung a Veterans Day wreath. Walked and appreciated the fall foliage to deep breathe and reset. Trying to create a step by step coping lab for horrible still coming.
Just good to hear from you Simon, thanks for all you do and keeping us engaged and updated
Just read that the Senate race in Arizona was called for Ruben Gallego! That puts a smile on my face! We will be the opposition and have to keep the faith!
I would love to hear your thoughts on the popular vote. If that’s appropriate. Just to help me understand better. Thanks.
Ballots are still being counted, so we may have to wait a week or two.
Yes, please, where did 10-12 million votes for Biden disappear to and why?
I'm thinking the only answer is to the women-haters club.