I am involved with a south Asian group in Georgia and leadership is pushing for an uncommitted vote in the primary where it won’t hurt democrats but still voice disapproval of the situation with the Palestinians. But a lot of these will likely vote for Biden in the general election (from the people I know).
In my humble opinion, the leadership of your group actually is hurting Democrats and doing real damage to Biden’s re-election efforts. Moreover, they are not achieving their objective.
The news coverage makes it very clear that President Biden is doing his utmost to pressure Netanyahu on Gaza, and to bring all the Middle East players together to chart a path to peaceful coexistence.
.
NB: Not even 600,000 Israelis marching the streets in pro-democracy protests could sway Netanyahu. And yet some seem to believe that somehow Biden can magically do so? Without Biden’s continuing pressure, Gaza would be even more of a catastrophe, and with a far higher body count.
Trump and Netanyahu are friends. You are not helping the Palestinians by writing in uncommitted on your ballot, you are helping Trump. Remember, Trump touted the Abraham Accords which did not even mention the 2- State solution. Trump does not like Muslim people, remember one of his first acts was to ban Muslims from coming into our country. He is outright racist. Please do not do this. Vote Joe Biden.
I never said I was doing this. I was relaying a strategy that some south Asian groups are using and castigating this point of view makes people more entrenched.
Voting against an obvious frontrunner may be emotionally pleasing but it seems to me a dangerous game. Less so, in a less-existential year. But I understand the concept. I just think it is short-sighted if not myopic. I always want to ask such a group: What would you have him DO? HOW would you have him DO it? He isn't the Almighty! And the Putin/Khomeini/Netanayahoo (wannabe Trump) coalition is determined. I also find a lot of antiSemites in such groups and that is just as ugly -- very concerned with anyone who doesn't condemn Hamas unconditionally. But I applaud GA's activism.
OTOH it is only Feb and perhaps it will get WH's attention; I always worry about those inside the Bubble of East Coast Politics as they are SO unconnected to the rest of us mere mortals.
I suppose No Labels is more of a threat than primary voters. (Hoping Simon will address third party threats again at some point.)
There is plenty of disagreement in our group as well. Like Simon says this is a very small portion of the democratic coalition and I think giving people space and empathy is essential. But my actual point was that many of these will end up voting for Biden and I know the leadership in my group is very committed to electing Democrats (and have worked very hard in past years to do so)
The protest vote in Mich was just that -- a wake-up call to Biden about how we, as a nation, are attempting to resolve this intractable Middle East conflict. I don't know how the Administration is gaining insights on what to do next. Is there a panel of experts with whom they are consulting? If so, maybe they could share those findings with all of us voters? BTW, I voted for Biden, straight up!
Intractable is the word! Putin/Khomeini/Netanayahu/Trump are all benefiting (as they see it) from the hatred and slaughter and destruction. There is no right and wrong here, only wrong and wrong and more wrong. Israelis have not been kind to Palestinians from the beginning. Each side has demonized and killed the other. Hamas just took it to a new low of bestiality. Israel is responding with a new level of "destroy everything." Taking sides is not really helpful imho. But tamping it all down perhaps is what "diplomacy" is about and Biden IS good at that. (Bibi, like Trump, is fighting for his life and doesn't care who gets hurt and Hamas is doing the same. If only the world had leaders who cared about the welfare of others, all others.) What a tricky time we are living through!
– "Hailey runner-up, Trump second-last in Michigan"
– "Democratic uncommitted vote roughly same as Obama’s in 2012"
– "Biden exceeds Michigan polls, Trump with woeful under-performance"
– "Republican non-Trump vote 32%, Democratic non-Biden vote only 19%"
.
I get so tired of the biased headlines from NYT, Axios and much of the news media! As Simon points out, any objective view of yesterday’s primary results would highlight President Biden’s strengths and ex-president Trump’s weaknesses and consistent under-performance.
Moreover, given how Trump has shown a high single-digit or even double-digit shortfall compared to polling in every single GOP primary and caucus, political pundits should be seriously questioning the accuracy of polls that place Trump ahead or even with President Biden.
Thanks Simon, another great post. If anyone is interested in getting involved by writing postcards to folks in the primaries, you can get involved by going to www.centerforcommonground.com. There are detailed instructions, and you can get free postcards from your local organizer, or their main office. I’m writing ones now for the primary in GA, with pre-printed “Reclaim Our Vote” cards, that will be mailed starting 4/22-5/9. You just need to buy the stamps for them.
I have names and addresses for their GA campaign although I haven't started writing mine yet. My "local" organizer is 3 hrs away so I purchased my postcards.
I've been writing daily to NYTimes journalists and editors about the paper's anti-Biden bias. Below is today's letter about Nate Cohn's off base coverage of the Michigan Primary. Please write in too.
Stop twisting yourself in knots. Without the "Uncommitted" vote, Biden would have gotten 96% of the vote..if half the "Uncommitted" voters vote for Biden in November, he gets 90% of the primary voters. Mr. Trump lost ~30% of the GOP primary voters in a Democratic state that Biden won in 2020 by 150,000. Has the Times lost its ability to do basic math? Perhaps the Times has entered the realm of "alternative facts"; a strange discipline to take away from the Trump administration. Given the facts, I'd sure rather be Biden than Trump, not just in Michigan, but in the general election. When will the Times stop embarrassing itself and begin reporting 2024 election trends accurately? ...........Thanks Merrill Weingrod 401-480-8003
Great letter, Merrill! In addition to Simon yesterday and today, other solid sources on the basic math are Jay Kuo and Robert Hubbell...more support for Information Warriors!
I am intrigued by Trump's underperformance relative to the polling. You say "when it comes time to actually vote" some people don't vote for him. I picture people in the polling booth pausing and deciding to vote for Haley. An alternate explanation would rely on who turned out in these primaries. Do you have information about whether turn out by various demographics was not what was expected?
I found one thing interesting in the exit polling for the SC primary. Haley got roughly 2/3 of the the voters who said that they had decided in the previous month.
Thank you for the sanity of Hopium. I would suggest that you use a current photo of the Orange Horror instead of any photo that makes him look normal in any way at all. Your photo should match the substance of your post.
Or use a photo of Biden. That would be nice. I am so tired of every news report on tv showing pix of Trump. You'd think he was president or something. Biden and actual accomplishments are just not being covered or are covered with pix of Trump!
I am loving this new Democratic approach Simon! It's about 20 years late to hit the mainstream, but I have a feeling you were spreading this message the whole time (wish I knew of you sooner in my political enlightenenment).
I also loved the Newsoms clip . We need to be stronger than the bullies and not submit to their talking points.
If we can manage to get those capable of being persuaded to read the truth about the importance of November's election so well expressed in this morning's newsletter, it would be impossible to for them to vote for another Trump presidency. I loved Malcolm Turnbull's comments of Trump's infantile behavior when he met Putin for the first time. Your optimism should help all of us to do anything that we can to help Biden be re-elected with and a Congress willing to work with him.
Palm Beach County is Trump’s Mar-A-Lago home base.There are internal conflicts within local GOP and fundraising is way down. But their Lobsterfeast 🦞 was successful..🤣
I don't comment much, but do have a personal perspective on Michigan. It's my home state, and I was born and bred in Macomb County. Biden cracking 80% in the face of a protest vote is immense. Objectively and respectfully, what is occurring in Israel/Palestine is a significant issue, more so in our Arab-American communities. The stakes are much greater for many, personally, than they could ever be for me. My only stance is a call for nothing short of peace and an understanding that any way forward must include acceptance and mutual respect. This is exactly what I would like Biden to project at all times.
Given this, Biden topping 80% is a huge win. It tells me he has not lost all support in these minority communities. In other words, this is good news for November. A percentage protest vote remains significant, and Biden should be advised to tend those fences.
I would love to know Biden tells Bibi he gets no more help without stopping civilian slaughter. Maybe he is saying that. I think taxpayers should make their feelings known about what killing we may have to support. Bibi is going overboard in Gaza, for personal reasons. But there is also no excuse for Hamas and Hamas should be stopped too. Ultimately there is no solution to an unholy land of hates until that hate is gone from the human hearts there. Cessation of hostilities is always temporary and never peacefilled.
NYTimes was standing at the polling places doing informal exit polling and there were three Arab-Americans who said they were voting Biden: one wasn’t aware of the protest vote, one was aware but didn’t see the point of showing up to vote for nobody, and one was fully aware of everything, was disappointed with Biden’s efforts in Gaza so far, but liked everything else and clearly saw the threat to global peace that Trump represents. It’s just three, but it does show that he hasn’t lost full support.
I also think, as was said last night, that it’s significant that they didn’t rally behind another candidate- this was a wake up call to the Biden Administration, it was not an effort to push a different candidate. That distinction matters- it’s public speech by way of voting, not fully a rejection of Biden.
Prime Minister Turnbull knows what time it is! Donnie T is a grade A loser and a fool and I never tire of laughing at him - a cheap, chubby huckster. Holy smokes - the Apex RINO known as Trump is leading the Republican Party straight off a cliff. Truly, I cannot be made to fear that man.
I note that on Tuesday Donald Trump received 756,697 votes (with 99% of the vote counted) and Biden received 618,426 (with 95% of the Democratic votes counted). Trump received almost as many votes as all the votes cast in the Democratic primary.
I know this is a primary with a much lower turnout, and it indicates the battleground character of the state, but I would appreciate hearing from anyone with any comments on this disparity. I did check the votes in Michigan in the 2020 election: Biden won Michigan 2,804,040 votes to Trumps 2,649,852. I hope Trump continues to underperform, but it seems that we have work to do to get Biden to the level he had in 2020, even though the stakes are much higher this year.
It probably indicates MI needs a postcard campaign. Interesting numbers. Significant? Maybe a lot of Arab Americans didn't vote at all? MI will be getting a lot of attention this year!
Friends, they are having a full on contentious primary, and we aren't. Of course they are going to get more votes than us in the primary. This is a made up right wing talking point and not a thing. Biden campaign didn't spend money, work to boost turnout. It's all good.
I appreciate your point, Mr. Rosenberg and admire your work, but I am sorry to see my (or anyone's) genuine puzzlement characterized as a "made up right wing talking point and not a thing." I am a new paid subscriber, trying to do my part, not a purveyor of "right wing" anything. I guess the comment section is only for the cool kids and cognoscenti. Thanks.
Sorry Patrick, you are actually a purveyor of right wing talking points. This idea that somehow what happened in MI was bad for us and not them was a major info op over the past two days by the right and it gained traction, despite it being ridiculous from a data point of view. Dozens of accounts spread this on my Twitter feed yesterday, and it was all over our discourse. What this means is that the right is worried about the way Trump's clear early weakness is being discussed now openly in the media, for the entire rationale of his campaign and legal defense is that he is winning the election and will be the next President. Our undermining of that is lethal to them, and they have started to fight. Part of what we do here is try to understand how propaganda bullies us around, and together work to identify when this is happening and resist it.
You mean in essentially an uncontested primary for an incumbent running for reelection, our guy came within 100,000 votes of Trump who's fighting like hell to get Hayley out of his hair so he doesn't look weak??? Hell....I think that's just more evidence that our enthusiasm is up....there was barely any reason for Dems to leave the house and participate in this thing unless they really wanted to
Simon, thanks for the Do More Worry Less section. Helpful. When do we ramp up (and target) postcard campaigning? (I really appreciate your breakdown of facts and statistics; it is the most hopeful anywhere and they will be useful for postcarding too I think; I'm working on simple declarative sentences but not sure how to target them for best effect.)
Suzc, you don't need to wait for Simon to identify which candidates to support. Remember his recommendations are on top of anything you may already be doing.
A bunch of Hopium followers are regular postcarders - including me. There are a myrriad of organizations that are either primarily postcarding or include postcarding in their toolbox of voter contact methods. But I'm not familiar with any of them that leave the message totally up to the writer. There is a lot of science behind it.
Here is a list of some of the grassroots groups that include postcarding along with a brief description:
1) Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) is the only group I'm aware of that does postcards and focuses on voter registration. (The Civics Center is switching gears and moving to letter writing). They have campaigns in swing states/districts and some issue oriented campaigns from which to choose. I am writing NC-01 postcards with them now. Timeframe is mail as you go and within a couple of weeks with a "Mail no later than..." date if it is close to the election. Request 10 - 200 postcards at a time.
2) Postcards to Voters (www.postcardstovoters.org) - they target close races to GOTV and support Democrats. There is always a 3-day turn around. Request 4 - 50 postcards at a time. They provide a 3 bullet required script plus lots of options for additional approved messages about the candidate and generic GOTV (e.g., "Be A Voter", "Your Vote is your Voice", etc). Their bread and butter are special elections, run-off races, ballot initiatives for progressive causes like reproductive freedom, reminders for VBM especially if the GOP has set up barricades like in FL. For candidate races they don't get involved until one Democratic candidate is established.
3) Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) - they also do phonebanking and texting and focus on the western US - AZ, CA, NM, NV although they have done campaigns in OH, NY, and PA as well. They include independent voters in their targetting and sometimes have a theme like gun violence or healthcare costs. Mix of mail as you go and mail between two dates. No minimum request size.
4) Markers of Democracy (www.markersofdemocracy.org) - this is a big postcarding group that has its own campaigns and writes postcards for other grassroots groups. They meet several times a week over Zoom and have invited guests - either candidates or organizations involved in voting. They sponsored Sundays for Suozzi which is how I got involved with them.
5) Grassroots Dems (https://grassrootsdems.org/postcards/) - this group has a similar platform to Activate America but a much slower turnaround time. You can request 25, 50 or 100 postcards at a time.
6) Postcards 4 VA (postcards4VA.com) - postcards for races in VA. Some campaigns require you to use their postcards; others do not. I wrote with them in 2023 for their state legislative races.
7) Reclaim our Vote (https://www.centerforcommonground.org/reclaim-our-vote) - this group focuses on disenfranchised BIPOC voters in VA, NC, SC, GA, and AL. They currently have a campaign for the primary in GA and one for VA primary is imminent. Will have campaigns for NC General election later this year. You must go through training and use their postcards and exact script.
8) NEAZ Native Democrats (https://neaznativedemocrats.org/) - this is an interesting partnership between outside postcard writers and local native organizers in Northeast AZ. Postcards are written year round to connect recipients with their organizers, remind them to update voter information, and to promote NEAZ programs. Sign up on Mobilize to be mailed a list of 20 -25 addresses on Friday; there is a limited number of spots so usually filled in advance, but check back for cancellations. https://www.mobilize.us/aznativeorganizingcampaign/event/527542/
9) Postcards to Swing States (https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/) - I haven't written with them because of the high minimum number of postcards (used to be 200 or more). These are not directed at a particular candidate; the writer choices from 2 or 3 generic get out the Vote (GOTV) messages. Website shows May date for campaigns to be available. IIRC, it works as write postcards and hold until mail date.
Great post as always. Thank you Simon! Here is Simon on Daily Kos, enjoy!
Doing more and worrying less!
https://www.youtube.com/live/v3GS8Q8RcMI?si=UyRaYkCtmgp0C4SF
Thanks for sharing this! Great interview.
I am involved with a south Asian group in Georgia and leadership is pushing for an uncommitted vote in the primary where it won’t hurt democrats but still voice disapproval of the situation with the Palestinians. But a lot of these will likely vote for Biden in the general election (from the people I know).
In my humble opinion, the leadership of your group actually is hurting Democrats and doing real damage to Biden’s re-election efforts. Moreover, they are not achieving their objective.
The news coverage makes it very clear that President Biden is doing his utmost to pressure Netanyahu on Gaza, and to bring all the Middle East players together to chart a path to peaceful coexistence.
.
NB: Not even 600,000 Israelis marching the streets in pro-democracy protests could sway Netanyahu. And yet some seem to believe that somehow Biden can magically do so? Without Biden’s continuing pressure, Gaza would be even more of a catastrophe, and with a far higher body count.
Well, the protests saved their court system. And he is probably on his way out. So maybe we need to do more pro-democracy marching ourselves.
I do agree with you about Biden's pressure. Rock and Hard Place. Nobody is happy so he is probably doing all he can.
"So maybe we need to do more pro-democracy marching ourselves."
Absolutely! And we are doing that: pro-democracy marches – right to the polls!
Trump and Netanyahu are friends. You are not helping the Palestinians by writing in uncommitted on your ballot, you are helping Trump. Remember, Trump touted the Abraham Accords which did not even mention the 2- State solution. Trump does not like Muslim people, remember one of his first acts was to ban Muslims from coming into our country. He is outright racist. Please do not do this. Vote Joe Biden.
I never said I was doing this. I was relaying a strategy that some south Asian groups are using and castigating this point of view makes people more entrenched.
Thank you for clarifying!
Read Jay Kuo today, too!
Thanks for checking in Monica. I'm a Georgia girl too!
Voting against an obvious frontrunner may be emotionally pleasing but it seems to me a dangerous game. Less so, in a less-existential year. But I understand the concept. I just think it is short-sighted if not myopic. I always want to ask such a group: What would you have him DO? HOW would you have him DO it? He isn't the Almighty! And the Putin/Khomeini/Netanayahoo (wannabe Trump) coalition is determined. I also find a lot of antiSemites in such groups and that is just as ugly -- very concerned with anyone who doesn't condemn Hamas unconditionally. But I applaud GA's activism.
OTOH it is only Feb and perhaps it will get WH's attention; I always worry about those inside the Bubble of East Coast Politics as they are SO unconnected to the rest of us mere mortals.
I suppose No Labels is more of a threat than primary voters. (Hoping Simon will address third party threats again at some point.)
There is plenty of disagreement in our group as well. Like Simon says this is a very small portion of the democratic coalition and I think giving people space and empathy is essential. But my actual point was that many of these will end up voting for Biden and I know the leadership in my group is very committed to electing Democrats (and have worked very hard in past years to do so)
That is kinda what I think too. It's a long long time to November.
The protest vote in Mich was just that -- a wake-up call to Biden about how we, as a nation, are attempting to resolve this intractable Middle East conflict. I don't know how the Administration is gaining insights on what to do next. Is there a panel of experts with whom they are consulting? If so, maybe they could share those findings with all of us voters? BTW, I voted for Biden, straight up!
Breaking News:
– President Biden *is* doing his utmost to resolve this intractable Middle East conflict.
– Yes, President Biden *is* consulting with a "panel of leading experts". They work for him!
– Most of Biden’s efforts happen behind closed doors, and so are not reported to "us voters".
.
Intractable is the word! Putin/Khomeini/Netanayahu/Trump are all benefiting (as they see it) from the hatred and slaughter and destruction. There is no right and wrong here, only wrong and wrong and more wrong. Israelis have not been kind to Palestinians from the beginning. Each side has demonized and killed the other. Hamas just took it to a new low of bestiality. Israel is responding with a new level of "destroy everything." Taking sides is not really helpful imho. But tamping it all down perhaps is what "diplomacy" is about and Biden IS good at that. (Bibi, like Trump, is fighting for his life and doesn't care who gets hurt and Hamas is doing the same. If only the world had leaders who cared about the welfare of others, all others.) What a tricky time we are living through!
Imaginary New York Times headlines:
– "Hailey runner-up, Trump second-last in Michigan"
– "Democratic uncommitted vote roughly same as Obama’s in 2012"
– "Biden exceeds Michigan polls, Trump with woeful under-performance"
– "Republican non-Trump vote 32%, Democratic non-Biden vote only 19%"
.
I get so tired of the biased headlines from NYT, Axios and much of the news media! As Simon points out, any objective view of yesterday’s primary results would highlight President Biden’s strengths and ex-president Trump’s weaknesses and consistent under-performance.
Moreover, given how Trump has shown a high single-digit or even double-digit shortfall compared to polling in every single GOP primary and caucus, political pundits should be seriously questioning the accuracy of polls that place Trump ahead or even with President Biden.
.
I really love your last headline!!!
Thanks Simon, another great post. If anyone is interested in getting involved by writing postcards to folks in the primaries, you can get involved by going to www.centerforcommonground.com. There are detailed instructions, and you can get free postcards from your local organizer, or their main office. I’m writing ones now for the primary in GA, with pre-printed “Reclaim Our Vote” cards, that will be mailed starting 4/22-5/9. You just need to buy the stamps for them.
thanks for the link
You’re very welcome
I have names and addresses for their GA campaign although I haven't started writing mine yet. My "local" organizer is 3 hrs away so I purchased my postcards.
I've been writing daily to NYTimes journalists and editors about the paper's anti-Biden bias. Below is today's letter about Nate Cohn's off base coverage of the Michigan Primary. Please write in too.
You can write to: nate.cohn@nytimes.com joe.kahn@nytimed.co david.halbfinger@nytimes.com .....
....................................................................
Stop twisting yourself in knots. Without the "Uncommitted" vote, Biden would have gotten 96% of the vote..if half the "Uncommitted" voters vote for Biden in November, he gets 90% of the primary voters. Mr. Trump lost ~30% of the GOP primary voters in a Democratic state that Biden won in 2020 by 150,000. Has the Times lost its ability to do basic math? Perhaps the Times has entered the realm of "alternative facts"; a strange discipline to take away from the Trump administration. Given the facts, I'd sure rather be Biden than Trump, not just in Michigan, but in the general election. When will the Times stop embarrassing itself and begin reporting 2024 election trends accurately? ...........Thanks Merrill Weingrod 401-480-8003
Great letter, Merrill! In addition to Simon yesterday and today, other solid sources on the basic math are Jay Kuo and Robert Hubbell...more support for Information Warriors!
When, oh when, will the insufferable Dean Phillips read the writing on the wall and suspend his embarrassing campaign?
The writing on the wall is written clearly ... in hurled ketchup.
I am intrigued by Trump's underperformance relative to the polling. You say "when it comes time to actually vote" some people don't vote for him. I picture people in the polling booth pausing and deciding to vote for Haley. An alternate explanation would rely on who turned out in these primaries. Do you have information about whether turn out by various demographics was not what was expected?
I found one thing interesting in the exit polling for the SC primary. Haley got roughly 2/3 of the the voters who said that they had decided in the previous month.
According to the CBS exit poll (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-2024-south-carolina-primary-voter-exit-polls/) she out-scored Trump with Moderates (70% to 29%), late deciders (66% to 33%), first time primary voters (57% to 42%) and Independents (53% to 46%)
Thank you for the sanity of Hopium. I would suggest that you use a current photo of the Orange Horror instead of any photo that makes him look normal in any way at all. Your photo should match the substance of your post.
Or use a photo of Biden. That would be nice. I am so tired of every news report on tv showing pix of Trump. You'd think he was president or something. Biden and actual accomplishments are just not being covered or are covered with pix of Trump!
I am loving this new Democratic approach Simon! It's about 20 years late to hit the mainstream, but I have a feeling you were spreading this message the whole time (wish I knew of you sooner in my political enlightenenment).
I also loved the Newsoms clip . We need to be stronger than the bullies and not submit to their talking points.
If we can manage to get those capable of being persuaded to read the truth about the importance of November's election so well expressed in this morning's newsletter, it would be impossible to for them to vote for another Trump presidency. I loved Malcolm Turnbull's comments of Trump's infantile behavior when he met Putin for the first time. Your optimism should help all of us to do anything that we can to help Biden be re-elected with and a Congress willing to work with him.
Palm Beach County is Trump’s Mar-A-Lago home base.There are internal conflicts within local GOP and fundraising is way down. But their Lobsterfeast 🦞 was successful..🤣
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/politics/2024/02/27/palm-beach-county-republicans-struggle-to-work-out-conflicts-in-2024/72268802007/
👕🛒🧢 Still much work to do to turn Florida Blue !🌊
I don't comment much, but do have a personal perspective on Michigan. It's my home state, and I was born and bred in Macomb County. Biden cracking 80% in the face of a protest vote is immense. Objectively and respectfully, what is occurring in Israel/Palestine is a significant issue, more so in our Arab-American communities. The stakes are much greater for many, personally, than they could ever be for me. My only stance is a call for nothing short of peace and an understanding that any way forward must include acceptance and mutual respect. This is exactly what I would like Biden to project at all times.
Given this, Biden topping 80% is a huge win. It tells me he has not lost all support in these minority communities. In other words, this is good news for November. A percentage protest vote remains significant, and Biden should be advised to tend those fences.
I would love to know Biden tells Bibi he gets no more help without stopping civilian slaughter. Maybe he is saying that. I think taxpayers should make their feelings known about what killing we may have to support. Bibi is going overboard in Gaza, for personal reasons. But there is also no excuse for Hamas and Hamas should be stopped too. Ultimately there is no solution to an unholy land of hates until that hate is gone from the human hearts there. Cessation of hostilities is always temporary and never peacefilled.
NYTimes was standing at the polling places doing informal exit polling and there were three Arab-Americans who said they were voting Biden: one wasn’t aware of the protest vote, one was aware but didn’t see the point of showing up to vote for nobody, and one was fully aware of everything, was disappointed with Biden’s efforts in Gaza so far, but liked everything else and clearly saw the threat to global peace that Trump represents. It’s just three, but it does show that he hasn’t lost full support.
I also think, as was said last night, that it’s significant that they didn’t rally behind another candidate- this was a wake up call to the Biden Administration, it was not an effort to push a different candidate. That distinction matters- it’s public speech by way of voting, not fully a rejection of Biden.
Prime Minister Turnbull knows what time it is! Donnie T is a grade A loser and a fool and I never tire of laughing at him - a cheap, chubby huckster. Holy smokes - the Apex RINO known as Trump is leading the Republican Party straight off a cliff. Truly, I cannot be made to fear that man.
On the Michigan primary:
I note that on Tuesday Donald Trump received 756,697 votes (with 99% of the vote counted) and Biden received 618,426 (with 95% of the Democratic votes counted). Trump received almost as many votes as all the votes cast in the Democratic primary.
I know this is a primary with a much lower turnout, and it indicates the battleground character of the state, but I would appreciate hearing from anyone with any comments on this disparity. I did check the votes in Michigan in the 2020 election: Biden won Michigan 2,804,040 votes to Trumps 2,649,852. I hope Trump continues to underperform, but it seems that we have work to do to get Biden to the level he had in 2020, even though the stakes are much higher this year.
It probably indicates MI needs a postcard campaign. Interesting numbers. Significant? Maybe a lot of Arab Americans didn't vote at all? MI will be getting a lot of attention this year!
I too am interested in hearing more about what this disparity means for the general.
Friends, they are having a full on contentious primary, and we aren't. Of course they are going to get more votes than us in the primary. This is a made up right wing talking point and not a thing. Biden campaign didn't spend money, work to boost turnout. It's all good.
Thanks, that's the context I was missing.
I appreciate your point, Mr. Rosenberg and admire your work, but I am sorry to see my (or anyone's) genuine puzzlement characterized as a "made up right wing talking point and not a thing." I am a new paid subscriber, trying to do my part, not a purveyor of "right wing" anything. I guess the comment section is only for the cool kids and cognoscenti. Thanks.
Sorry Patrick, you are actually a purveyor of right wing talking points. This idea that somehow what happened in MI was bad for us and not them was a major info op over the past two days by the right and it gained traction, despite it being ridiculous from a data point of view. Dozens of accounts spread this on my Twitter feed yesterday, and it was all over our discourse. What this means is that the right is worried about the way Trump's clear early weakness is being discussed now openly in the media, for the entire rationale of his campaign and legal defense is that he is winning the election and will be the next President. Our undermining of that is lethal to them, and they have started to fight. Part of what we do here is try to understand how propaganda bullies us around, and together work to identify when this is happening and resist it.
You mean in essentially an uncontested primary for an incumbent running for reelection, our guy came within 100,000 votes of Trump who's fighting like hell to get Hayley out of his hair so he doesn't look weak??? Hell....I think that's just more evidence that our enthusiasm is up....there was barely any reason for Dems to leave the house and participate in this thing unless they really wanted to
Simon, thanks for the Do More Worry Less section. Helpful. When do we ramp up (and target) postcard campaigning? (I really appreciate your breakdown of facts and statistics; it is the most hopeful anywhere and they will be useful for postcarding too I think; I'm working on simple declarative sentences but not sure how to target them for best effect.)
Suzc, you don't need to wait for Simon to identify which candidates to support. Remember his recommendations are on top of anything you may already be doing.
A bunch of Hopium followers are regular postcarders - including me. There are a myrriad of organizations that are either primarily postcarding or include postcarding in their toolbox of voter contact methods. But I'm not familiar with any of them that leave the message totally up to the writer. There is a lot of science behind it.
Here is a list of some of the grassroots groups that include postcarding along with a brief description:
1) Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) is the only group I'm aware of that does postcards and focuses on voter registration. (The Civics Center is switching gears and moving to letter writing). They have campaigns in swing states/districts and some issue oriented campaigns from which to choose. I am writing NC-01 postcards with them now. Timeframe is mail as you go and within a couple of weeks with a "Mail no later than..." date if it is close to the election. Request 10 - 200 postcards at a time.
2) Postcards to Voters (www.postcardstovoters.org) - they target close races to GOTV and support Democrats. There is always a 3-day turn around. Request 4 - 50 postcards at a time. They provide a 3 bullet required script plus lots of options for additional approved messages about the candidate and generic GOTV (e.g., "Be A Voter", "Your Vote is your Voice", etc). Their bread and butter are special elections, run-off races, ballot initiatives for progressive causes like reproductive freedom, reminders for VBM especially if the GOP has set up barricades like in FL. For candidate races they don't get involved until one Democratic candidate is established.
3) Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) - they also do phonebanking and texting and focus on the western US - AZ, CA, NM, NV although they have done campaigns in OH, NY, and PA as well. They include independent voters in their targetting and sometimes have a theme like gun violence or healthcare costs. Mix of mail as you go and mail between two dates. No minimum request size.
4) Markers of Democracy (www.markersofdemocracy.org) - this is a big postcarding group that has its own campaigns and writes postcards for other grassroots groups. They meet several times a week over Zoom and have invited guests - either candidates or organizations involved in voting. They sponsored Sundays for Suozzi which is how I got involved with them.
5) Grassroots Dems (https://grassrootsdems.org/postcards/) - this group has a similar platform to Activate America but a much slower turnaround time. You can request 25, 50 or 100 postcards at a time.
6) Postcards 4 VA (postcards4VA.com) - postcards for races in VA. Some campaigns require you to use their postcards; others do not. I wrote with them in 2023 for their state legislative races.
7) Reclaim our Vote (https://www.centerforcommonground.org/reclaim-our-vote) - this group focuses on disenfranchised BIPOC voters in VA, NC, SC, GA, and AL. They currently have a campaign for the primary in GA and one for VA primary is imminent. Will have campaigns for NC General election later this year. You must go through training and use their postcards and exact script.
8) NEAZ Native Democrats (https://neaznativedemocrats.org/) - this is an interesting partnership between outside postcard writers and local native organizers in Northeast AZ. Postcards are written year round to connect recipients with their organizers, remind them to update voter information, and to promote NEAZ programs. Sign up on Mobilize to be mailed a list of 20 -25 addresses on Friday; there is a limited number of spots so usually filled in advance, but check back for cancellations. https://www.mobilize.us/aznativeorganizingcampaign/event/527542/
9) Postcards to Swing States (https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/) - I haven't written with them because of the high minimum number of postcards (used to be 200 or more). These are not directed at a particular candidate; the writer choices from 2 or 3 generic get out the Vote (GOTV) messages. Website shows May date for campaigns to be available. IIRC, it works as write postcards and hold until mail date.
Ok. You have spurred me on! I will get moving, using your information/suggestions. Thank you!
Super!! :-)