37 Comments

Just a bit of pushback on the "we are better off" argument. I think it is important whenever one says that we are better off to qualify it in two ways. First, it is an average and while it may be the case that the majority is better off, it is important to acknowledge that many people are struggling and are not better off. For example, someone who now cannot buy a house because mortgage rates have gone up is not better off. The other qualifyer is that even if many are better off, it does not negate that there is still work to be done. Inequality remains high. The point here is that Democrats are going to do the work of reducing inequality, Republicans are not. I would argue that any time we make an argument that the economy is doing well, we need to include these qualifyers, otherwise we are perceived as tone deaf.

Expand full comment

Two points Victor:

1) we say here, everyday, that we have work to do.

2) I don't really agree with you. America and the American people are better off today. Period. That is a demonstrably true statement, and we should not run from it or qualify it in any way. I just don't agree with this concept of "tone deaf" - it's become a tool some in our family use to disable us from talking about how successful and good the Democratic Party has been over the past 30 years.

Expand full comment

It is a matter of tone and balance. There are many people who are in fact not better off and there are many who perceive negatives (like inflation), which may be overblown but not in their minds, and I think talking to them in a way that seems to diminish their concerns risks backfiring. It is not a question of being right or wrong. It is a question of how to be persuasive.

Expand full comment

I actually think this strategy can backfire in a different way because never pointing out our successes can easily lead people to believe that there’s no difference in the parties and voting isn’t important because it doesn’t ever facilitate change. Just food for thought

Expand full comment

Sure, but I am not saying don't point out our successes. I am just saying that be careful about tone when doing so.

Expand full comment

Will echo what Steve says here this and say that I just don't agree with the point that when we discuss progress that those who are not getting ahead view this conversation as something negative. What happens if it is the opposite, that learning that others are doing well, and the economy is strong, it gives them hope they can improve their station and is a virtuous cycle motivator? I also think we have an obligation to be truthful to people and the truth is that America is kicking ass and we are better off. Period. We should not deny the ability to understand that they live in a successful and good country, and that government can work to make things better. This is an important conversation and core to the Hopium project, for I firmly believe that this idea that we can't take credit for progress because not everyone is sharing in it has done enormous harm to Democrats, and has over many years prevented us from talking honestly and openly about all the good we've done.

MAGA talks down America, we talk it up.

Expand full comment

Simon is exactly right. When Reagan ran again under morning in America, unemployment was over 7% and the CPI was at 4.2%. Compared to what it was in 1982, that’s much better. Compared to today, it’s awful. It’s all about the comparison.

Clinton was great at this. “Lowest unemployment in x years, lowest inflation in y years, first balanced budget in z years.” People don’t know what is good or not good without context. They are currently getting gobs of negative context despite much more positive reality.

In no economic boom ever, ever, has everyone prospered equally. Never in history in any country ever. It’s an absurd thing to wait for before touting the positives. (Although yes we should obviously keep pushing policies to reduce income inequality.)

Expand full comment

Reminds me of Michelle Obama's quote "when they go low we go high". The problem is, it did not work and fell flat.

Expand full comment

If their beliefs about the economy are incorrect, how does enlightening them with actual positive data backfire? Where would they backfire to?

Expand full comment

I have no problem with enlightening someone with data. I am just talking about tone and what information is included in the message.

Expand full comment

Victor, I understand what you're saying. Frankly, there are two objective truths here. 1) The country as a whole is better off. 2) Wealth inequality exists in the U.S., and some people are struggling financially. So when talking to those people, I think it’s important is to emphasize what Biden has done to try to help them – for example, lowering prescription drug prices, supporting labor unions, arranging for student debt relief (some of which was stymied by the courts, but you can’t say Biden didn’t try), etc. etc. It’s also important to talk about what Republicans are doing to block Biden’s efforts to help lower-income people – for example, certain states not allowing Medicaid expansion. There are plenty of other examples too.

Expand full comment

Another point we should make is that inflation is not Biden's doing. It's a worldwide phenomenon triggered largely by pandemic-related supply chain issues, as well as the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, the rate of inflation in most other countries is much higher than it is here. And employment in the U.S. is at record lows. We should remind people that they would be worse off if they were unemployed.

Expand full comment

Another great example of something that would help many families is the Biden administration's request for child care funding (and Congressional Democrats push for such funding) now that Covid-era child care assistance has expired.

Expand full comment

A great example of how Biden has helped families who are struggling financially is that he has expanded healthcare coverage for Americans under the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Donald Trump reduced Americans’ access to Obamacare by sharply reducing funding for enrollment assistance, shortening the annual sign-up period, and loosening rules so that less expensive short-term plans (which don’t cover many benefits required by the ACA) could be sold for longer periods of time. In contrast, the Biden administration has expanded funding for enrollment, added special enrollment periods, and currently has a proposal awaiting final approval that would restore restrictions on short-term plans.

Expand full comment

Victor we are literally living longer under Biden according to new data.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/11/29/1215746931/us-life-expectancy-2022-increase

Expand full comment

This is a bit misleading. "The not-so-good news is that the increase in life expectancy only accounted for less than 50% of the loss that was experienced between 2019 and 2021." In other words, the recent increase in life expectancy is mostly because fewer people are dying from Covid these days. But more people are dying because of flu and pneumonia, birth problems, kidney disease and malnutrition. Also mentioned in this NPR story: U.S. life expectancy lags far behind other wealthy countries, a gap that began in the 1980s and has grown steadily since then. Wealthy countries in Europe and Asia do much better on preventing early deaths from causes such as heart disease, gun violence, giving birth and infectious diseases for which there are vaccines.

Expand full comment

Carolyn, with respect, it is not misleading. It is a fact that life expectancy went up in 2022, and that is good news. Take the wins when they come, acknowledge there is more to do.

Expand full comment

Y'all are debating the whole half empty or half full argument. Simon, think back to 1992 and the Clinton campaign when you were in Little Rock and Manchester, not DC and McLean.

Expand full comment

This essay (The Power of Magical Thinking) provides a plausible explanation for why Biden's competence and achievements aren't breaking through to most Americans. https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/11/joe-biden-2024-election-post-policy-era/676157/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Expand full comment

I think part of the problem is the matter of some sellers of food/services still trying to take advantage of the high inflation narrative that people had become used to over the past 2 years. For example, today I saw online the price for a 5lb bag of whole wheat flour for $11 while I was able to purchase the same product for half the price at another vendor online. I see this at some restaurants and the dry cleaners where you see outrageous prices at some places and more normal prices elsewhere for the same level of service/product. More time and competition is needed. One last thing, I think Biden should make more noise about his anti-trust successes and also go after private equity’s role up of the housing market to get housing prices down.

Expand full comment

I'd love to know more about Biden's anti-trust successes. I feel a bit uninformed on that topic.

Expand full comment

See Matt Stoller if you want full coverage of anti-trust court cases. Currently Biden’s DOJ completed a trial against Google, started a trial against Amazon and the FTC has started proceedings against private equity’s roll ups in the medical industry.

Expand full comment

role=roll

Expand full comment

I think the good news for us is that the benefit of the GOP push about the "economy being bad" is mainly in that it pushes up negatives in polling but doesn't drive more voters to the polls (because it is more about opposing Biden than anything else). We know from 2022, when inflation was bad, that "concerns about the economy" present in polls was not what drove folks to the polls (we did not have a red wave). What drove them to the polls was protecting abortion rights and democracy. The argument that now - when inflation is better - that the economy will be the main issue for voters going to the polls next November is weak and wrongheaded.

Expand full comment

‘Grab’em by the pussy”, Increase my taxes, take away women’s rights, - Just how uninformed are the “Right”?

Expand full comment

I wish polls would ask, first, is the country in general better off, the same, or worse, and then ask, how about for your family specifically? Answers might diverge quite a bit.

Expand full comment

I think the Democratic Party should make a big deal out of phraseology that nails the GOP’s hypocrisy most effectively. Take their own talking points and reframe them, coat them in damning truths. Make them too toxic for GOP incumbents to tout.

They want to claim “family values“ at the podium? How come they don’t value families enough to raise the minimum wage, demand six weeks of paid maternal leave, and require extensive background checks and 10-day waiting periods for firearm purchases?

In fact, tell them to their faces at town halls that fighting against these issues proves that they are #ProSTRIFE. They subject their constituents to unnecessary economic hardships and fear as part of a larger campaign of chaos, hoping to ignite despair that they can somehow blame on Democrats.

And the most important freedom to them right now is #FreedomFromDemocracy. Any racially crafted voter purges or other voter disenfranchisement tactics that make it harder for anyone to vote just push us closer to #RepubloFascism.

Point out to all that will listen that today’s Republican legislators are not conservative, they are #CORPservative, in servitude to their corporate and billionaire donors.

Imagine an America where all the above phrases, themes, and hashtags are present in the political dialogue.

I have. I’m pushing for Democrats to use them throughout the nation. These words, and the truths behind them, can be part of the foundation for victory in 2024.

Expand full comment

I believe I forgot to register for tonight's program; I hope I'll be able to access the recording regardless?

I saw an AB Stoddard column in THE BULWARK this evening about how Biden's numbers were going down even more, young people were turning away, etc. , etc. The email with that column was literally a few minutes after Simon's afternoon email about how Biden's poll numbers are going up. Sheesh--I've about had it with these silly polls--it's really hard to derive much from them.

Last comment about perception. I understand inflation is hurting some more, much more, than others. But the fact is we had a horrific worldwide pandemic. The US high death rate was a terrible outlier, largely due to Trump, and the US economic recovery, much higher than other countries, and including full employment, was largely due to Biden.

Even when acknowledging, rightfully, that there are some families struggling, and you bet that needs addressed, I agree with Simon that, good grief, we are better off than we were, and we should be thankful we changed presidents when we did.

Expand full comment

Clearly as you state, Republicans are invested in painting the economy in a negative light. However, the media, in particular The NY Times is adding to the perception that the economy is not doing well.

Yesterday I attended an in-person interview of AG Sulzberger, current publisher of The NY Times. After ascertaining, by a show of hands, that virtually all 200 or so people in the room were Times readers, he quipped that he would bet each of us had at least 3 criticisms of Times coverage.

Well here’s some of mine…. The other day I was angered by an article whose headline said the economy was doing poorly and would be hurtful to Biden’s bid for reelection. The body of the article acknowledged that people were negative about the economy even though it’s doing quite well. Completely misleading headline!

Today’s outrage is again a knock on Biden for the economy, in a headline, see below, about a completely unrelated story about a Christmas tree…. It seems they are going out of their way to portray Biden negatively!

“The National Christmas Tree Fell Over. Insert Metaphor Here.

Does it symbolize President Biden’s economic policies, or the pressures of the season?”

Expand full comment

I wonder if AG SulzbergerI secretly wants the former guy back - for ratings.

Expand full comment

This is a bit misleading. "The not-so-good news is that the increase in life expectancy only accounted for less than 50% of the loss that was experienced between 2019 and 2021." In other words, the recent increase in life expectancy is mostly because fewer people are dying from Covid these days. But more people are dying because of flu and pneumonia, birth problems, kidney disease and malnutrition. Also mentioned in this NPR story: U.S. life expectancy lags far behind other wealthy countries, a gap that began in the 1980s and has grown steadily since then. Wealthy countries in Europe and Asia do much better on preventing early deaths from causes such as heart disease, gun violence, giving birth and infectious diseases for which there are vaccines.

Expand full comment

2022 is better than 2020 (Trumps last full year). Hardly misleading. You are essentially making the argument that Biden didn't fix things fast enough. If only he had a magic wand to fix covid and every other problem our country has suffered since Reagan.

Expand full comment

No, in fact, I was not making ANY judgment of Biden here. In fact, I don't think he is to blame for the increased mortality from flu and pneumonia, birth problems, kidney disease and malnutrition. I'm sorry if my words were misconstrued.

Expand full comment

Carolyn I am not trying to single you out. But the framing you are using, comparing numbers to 2018/2019 instead of 2020, is at its most basic level comparing framing the argument in a way that Democrats worst year has to be better than Republican's Best or nothing counts.

It is the framing Trump and Senate Republicans are using and convincing the media they should be using. The problem with that framing is it discounts both Trump/Republican's biggest failures and negates the greatest success of Democrats and Biden.

The greatest achievements of Clinton, Obama, and Biden has been that they have largely been able to correct Bush and Trumps failures in one term. And you see this framing everywhere you look. The outrage around the the train derailments is not because Dems do not care, but Republicans can destroy faster than the Dems can build.

Expand full comment

Josh, first of all, please know that I'm with you, not against you. I compared the numbers to 2018/2019 because the NPR story that you shared made that comparison. That was the essence of the NPR story. To me, the statement “Americans are living longer under Biden" was a bit misleading because – at a glance, without any context – many people would take that to mean “Under Biden, Americans are living longer than ever before.” I know that's not what you meant, but people read things quickly and often infer meaning that isn't there. Perhaps it would be better to say that life expectancy is rebounding under Biden after the devastating impact of Covid. Yay!

Expand full comment

I believe that you believe you are with me on this. Clearly though there is still a disconnect.

There are a couple of ways the statement can be interpreted. Correctly or incorrectly. Nothing in my statement was false, and I provided the link for more context. I understand you are concerned about misinformation and disinformation given the past decade of Russian/republican propaganda and the erosion of Journalism in our country. But nothing about my statement or the context of my statement could reasonably be interpreted as misleading. You are stretching here.

I am more concerned that in a forum of discussing democratic achievements you, intentionally or unintentionally, are using a Republican's framing to discount those achievements.

Expand full comment