Mike Podhorzer makes the important point that macro-economic numbers do not necessarily translate into lived experience. He points to the "precarity" (this year's new word) that is that lived experience for many Americans. While we should not shy away from the good economic news, we need also to find better ways to speak to those Americans who financial circumstances leave them feeling "precariously" positioned in the face of job loss, health crises, or unexpected events. Steven
Yikes! I just read the "Real Mark Robinson" link. Even as a NC resident, I didn't realize how bad he was. I will definitely be sharing that link with my peeps.
Wanted to make sure, Simon, that you saw my comment on Robert Kagan's piece in the NYT. What a contrast with you
Kagan has a long history of writing about Doomsday scenarios, some of which happened and some didn't, in the rest of the world. No problem, in one sense, pundits are rarely right more than half of the time.
But I think he also has a kind of tunnel vision. Having spent much of my career studying the long term rise of civil society in much of the world, I remember being astounded about his ignorance of this major, macro phenomenon, and I said so years ago during a presentation I gave at the University of Indiana. The evidence of what will happen next year is mixed, witness the writings of Simon Rosenberg, the pundit who correctly predicted that we would not have a red wave in 2022.
Of course he and Rosenberg are both right that what happens depends on what we do now. The difference is that Rosenberg is insprirational, while Kagan is not.
"The Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, which the Fed cites when it says it aims for 2 percent inflation on average over time, climbed by 3 percent in the year through October. That was down from 3.4 percent the previous month, and was in line with economist forecasts. Compared to the previous month, prices were flat." The way I would put it is that inflation is now at zero, not at 3 percent. Whether it stays at zero no one knows, but if it does, even if it goes up a little bit, it is now within the Fed target. I don't know why the media is focusing on the year over year inflation rather than the monthly inflation, which may be more relevant. Over the past 5 months, the PCE is up by only 1%, which is nearly within the 2% annual target.
It's amazing that a majority of Americans think we're in a recession. I've talked to people like that. I have a feeling that they don't know what a recession is. Or maybe they're conflating recession with inflation -- which is another way of saying they don't know what a recession is.
Mike Podhorzer makes the important point that macro-economic numbers do not necessarily translate into lived experience. He points to the "precarity" (this year's new word) that is that lived experience for many Americans. While we should not shy away from the good economic news, we need also to find better ways to speak to those Americans who financial circumstances leave them feeling "precariously" positioned in the face of job loss, health crises, or unexpected events. Steven
I don't really buy the lived experience argument, as I discuss above and here - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/giving-americans-permission-to-love
Yikes! I just read the "Real Mark Robinson" link. Even as a NC resident, I didn't realize how bad he was. I will definitely be sharing that link with my peeps.
Wanted to make sure, Simon, that you saw my comment on Robert Kagan's piece in the NYT. What a contrast with you
Kagan has a long history of writing about Doomsday scenarios, some of which happened and some didn't, in the rest of the world. No problem, in one sense, pundits are rarely right more than half of the time.
But I think he also has a kind of tunnel vision. Having spent much of my career studying the long term rise of civil society in much of the world, I remember being astounded about his ignorance of this major, macro phenomenon, and I said so years ago during a presentation I gave at the University of Indiana. The evidence of what will happen next year is mixed, witness the writings of Simon Rosenberg, the pundit who correctly predicted that we would not have a red wave in 2022.
Of course he and Rosenberg are both right that what happens depends on what we do now. The difference is that Rosenberg is insprirational, while Kagan is not.
"The Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, which the Fed cites when it says it aims for 2 percent inflation on average over time, climbed by 3 percent in the year through October. That was down from 3.4 percent the previous month, and was in line with economist forecasts. Compared to the previous month, prices were flat." The way I would put it is that inflation is now at zero, not at 3 percent. Whether it stays at zero no one knows, but if it does, even if it goes up a little bit, it is now within the Fed target. I don't know why the media is focusing on the year over year inflation rather than the monthly inflation, which may be more relevant. Over the past 5 months, the PCE is up by only 1%, which is nearly within the 2% annual target.
Great analysis Victor....thanks for adding clarity! 😎
It's amazing that a majority of Americans think we're in a recession. I've talked to people like that. I have a feeling that they don't know what a recession is. Or maybe they're conflating recession with inflation -- which is another way of saying they don't know what a recession is.
I’m here in Montana helping my daughter and son-in-law. I’ve been telling them about Hopium and they are really
glad to learn about it. I’ve added them to my forwarding list😊