Biden Leads 49%-45% in New ABC Poll, 2nd Poll This Week W/Large Biden Lead

NPR/Marist Had Biden up 52%-47% This Week With Likely Voters

Friends, I don’t usually post on Sundays but we got some good news this morning that needed sharing.

A new ABC News poll has Biden leading Trump 49%-45% (+4) with likely voters. This result is similar to this week’s NPR/Marist poll which had Biden up 52%-47% (+5) with likely voters:

ABC News Biden 49%-Trump 45% (+4)

NPR/Marist Biden 52%-Trump 47% (+5)

In both polls Biden does signifcantly better with likely voters than the broader electorate of registered voters.

We are seeing a pattern emerge in recent polling that Biden does better, and Trump worse, as you move from adult to registered voter to likely voter. In my post and presentation from Thursday, (do watch and read!) I explained why this dynamic is an encouraging development for Joe Biden and Democrats more broadly. Here’s an excerpt:

On Tuesday night we had another meaningful Dem overperformance in an election with real voters voting, something we’ve been over and over again since Dobbs two years ago. In a special election for the US House in NY-26, our candidate Timothy Kennedy received 68% of the vote. Congressman Brian Higgins received 64% of the vote there in 2022, and Biden 62% in 2020. This is a similar level of overperformance over the 2020 result we saw in the run up to the 2022 election, one which turned out far better for us than most expected.

As you often hear me say we’ve had a repeating electoral dynamic since Dobbs - Dems overperform, Republicans struggle. My explanation for this dynamic is that Dobbs broke the GOP, and for many non-MAGA Rs the party had at that moment just become too extreme, too dangerous. Since Dobbs Republican candidates have had performance problems because a chunk of their coalition just isn’t enthusiastic about following MAGA candidates and the escalating extremism of the GOP. And where this reticence manifests is when Republicans vote and have to make an actual decision on whether to support MAGA. While they may want to vote R in a poll, when voters have to pull the trigger and actually vote Republicans repeatedly perform worse than expected.

We’ve seen this dynamic - Republicans repeatedly struggling - show up in 2024 now too. We saw it in the Tom Keen January special election in Orlando; in the Suozzi win in February; in Alabama a few weeks ago; in NY-26 Tuesday; and most importantly we’ve seen it again and again in Trump’s Presidential primary performances, where he has repeatedly underperformed public polling and Haley repeatedly performed far better than anyone expected, even after she dropped out of the race. Remember in 2024 Trump has been repeatedly *underperforming* public polling.

I also think we’ve seen this dynamic in the recent Marist polling that breaks out likely voters from registered voters, something few polls are doing right now. In this week’s Marist poll Biden leads 50-48 (+2) with registered voters, but 52-47 (+5) with “definite” or likely voters. My explanation for this is as people move from being an adult to registered voter to likely voter to actual voter and are faced with pulling that lever for MAGA Trump and Republicans lose ground. As voters get get closer to voting, and go through the process of having to consider the options in front of them, a meaningful number just can’t go for MAGA and either don’t vote or choose another option (Haley, the Dem). This 2024 MAGA ugliness and extremism is too much for too many, and the GOP coalition doesn’t stay together, Republican candidates struggle, underperform and lose, again and again.

Will this happen again this November? Will Americans, as they check into the election, and see Joe Biden good President, Donald Trump the ugliest political thing we’ve ever seen, become more Dem and propel us to victory? I continue to believe this is the most likely scenario this year. And this is why our work in helping voters understand the choice in front of them, and in building our big, muscular campaigns that will also help voters understand this stark and consequential choice is so vital. It’s why every day we need to do more, worry less. For doing more is what is going to make sure we win this November.

It’s important to remember that Democrats have outperformed Republicans by 4.5 points over the past 4 Presidential elections and Republicans have only won the popular vote one time in the last 8 Presidential elections. The muscle memory of all those voters voting Democratic in Presidential elections, and our recent strong performance in the mid-term, off year and special elections, was always going to be a significant obstacle for Trump to overcome this year.

I will have more on all this tomorrow, but I want to be clear that what I’ve been saying for many many months now is that as the electorate checked in, and began to weigh the choice in front of them, things would get better for Joe Biden and the Dems. And they have.

Remember:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections all across the country.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well- oiled political machine.

We have six months to go to Election Day and the last day of voting this year, and simply I would much rather be us than them.

Keep working hard everyone. It’s how we win - Simon