Hi, Simon. I wonder if you would consider inviting Rachel Bitcofer to speak to the Hopium community - she is training all 57 party committees and it would be helpful to understand the new approach.
Simon, I second this request -- I actually came here to make the same comment! I am currently reading Bitecofer's new book, "Hit 'Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game." She and her book would make for a worthwhile Hopium segment.
We of course have work to do but by no measurable metric is Biden weaker. Polls with methodology that does not skew results show a close competitive race (see above). Biden has the incumbent advantage. There has not been much statistical change in polling regarding the war in the Middle East (two guys in front of a polling place in Michigan or wherever that vote uncommitted aren't a statistical sample.) And as a woman, I can tell you unequivocally that Dobbs changed the landscape. But don't take my word for it. Check out Democratic performance since Dobbs was handed down.
And if you feel Biden is weaker, then just do the work. Please don't say that here on a big day when folks are busy trying to get out the vote.
For those interested, here is a Medium piece that summarizes the arguments about abortion. Please either share it if you agree, or if you don't like anything about it (including tone or small wording changes) please email me at vthuronyi@gmail.com and I will fix it. Here is my summary from the piece: "There is a stark divide between Republicans and Democrats on abortion. The ultimate goal of Republican anti-abortionists is a complete ban on abortions. They are also going after contraception and IVF, as part of a bigger plan to legislate “Christian” values, including traditional roles for women, and traditional gender roles more generally. Abortion bans are driving doctors from states with bans, killing pregnant women denied care, and forcing women to give birth to fetuses that are either dead or will die shortly after birth. The only way to stop this is to vote Republicans out of all elected offices (Presidency, Congress, and state offices)." https://medium.com/@vthuronyi/the-problem-with-abortion-bans-2513504f236f
It's ok but not strong enough: First, it's not just "Republican anti-abortionists" -- it is mainstream in the MAGA Republican platform that women should not be able to make their own decisions about their own bodies and lives. And it's more than a "complete ban on abortions"--it's a complete *national* ban on abortions including medication abortion. Abortion bans deny reproductive justice for many women who, unable to make their own decisions about their own lives, are forced out of the workplace and into poverty. And it's not just "killing pregnant women denied care, and forcing women to give birth to fetuses that are either dead or will die shortly after birth." The denial of care to all women miscarrying does not just kill women, it adversely affects their health for the rest of their lives.
A recent cartoon shows a woman researcher or doctor looking at a frozen embryo through a microscope, as she voices this thought: "I wonder what it’s like to be considered a person."
Here is a very interesting analysis of Biden’s approval rates. The author picks apart FiveThirtyEight’s numbers and shows they’re highly misleading. The truth isn’t nearly as bad for Biden as the pundits keep telling us.
It seems to me that if this is correct, it should be a leading indicator, and we should start to see improvement in the polling averages following this trend. Does that seem right to you?
Yes, I believe you are right – and it appears several of the polls cited by Simon show this.
Also, many of the people expressing "disapproval" do support President Biden, but have specific frustrations, perhaps based on things moving too slowly. Topics such as the minimum wage not being raised, no Medicare-for-all, greedflation, Gaza, Build Back Better not passing, etc. etc. etc.
Thanks for sharing this analysis. It’s an interesting way of looking at it and helps avoid issues with 538’s approach that have always bothered me. It may also help explain why Biden’s horse race polling is better than you might expect based on just his approval averages.
Thank you Simon. I just filled out my primary ballot and wrote a postcard to the president. For the latter I wrote "Thank you for being a good president. Your job is not easy and is often thankless but many people like me see what you're doing and appreciate it. I will do everything I can to ensure you win a second term."
I got three people to sign up for Hopium yesterday and two of them have already agreed to write postcards with me. I am personally trying to pump up every Democrat I meet in a loving way because that's what all this is about and why I value this community. We are full of love for each other and this beautiful world and our actions show it. As my mom used to say, "Everything is easy with the mouth." Doing the work is the next step and I'm so grateful to Simon for creating this space for all of us to stay positive, stay focused, and not be tossed around like ships at sea.
Hi, Simon.....I have a strong belief that President Biden will get the votes needed to be re-elected. As I look at the landscape, the strategy is GOTV including new voter registrations. I am a bit concerned at some of the obstacles that are rising. I say this not to discourage anyone, but to identify them so we can overcome them. Last night Rachel Maddow highlighted the tactics that the Republicans are using to throw people off the voter rolls...100 here, 1,000 there. It was pretty enlightening. So I am wondering if you might suggest some tactics of our own to avert this. Don't want to come upon this rock in the road without tools.
Simon, I LOVED your TNR article and I really sparked to your comment in this post, “We know from public and private polling that when voters are informed about Biden’s accomplishments, his numbers go up. When voters are informed about Trump’s awfulness his numbers go down.”
I’m sure tons of smart people are hard at work on how to better inform the electorate in the midst of the asymmetrical information war we find ourselves in, and I know your focus is not media criticism, but I did want to mention that I think the MSNBC primetime line-up has been doing a MUCH better job of late! I think they understand the remit perfectly and yet so few people watch linear TV anymore.
With the endless obsession about every procedural twist in the Trump Trials on hold at the moment (long may that continue!), it’s created SO much more room for the kinds of in-depth reporting on the topics voters need so much more information about AND MSNBC IS DOING IT! Last night alone, their analysis of yesterday’s SCOTUS decision had more breadth and depth than anywhere else I’ve seen. AND they covered a TON of other very important topics as well. As a currently unemployed media executive (albeit in cable entertainment, not news) I’ll admit I watch WAY too much political news coverage right now, but even I learned something new in every single hour last night. Right now, theirs is first in class coverage and we need great in-depth video news content to reach as many people as possible this year if we’re going to win this. I’m sure they know this, but linear cable only is not going to do the job.
Especially when they highlight the MAGA extremist laws already passed in Red captured States, how those laws are affecting everyday people, along with highlighting the real people doing the work on the ground fighting back, it powerfully focuses the mind on the threat we face in a way nothing else does. How will letting Trump back in office affect your everyday life? Just look at what MAGA extremists are ALREADY doing. Look at the hate, violence and extreme, freedom killing laws that are ALREADY HERE and that they want to Nationalize. Meet the people on the ground who are already fighting back hard! The Republican interviewed on The Reidout last night who brought the Colorado 14 Amendment case was particularly good – let’s profile more Republicans who are joining the fight! [I personally also think that the Republican Party mob boss threat and violence tactics are underreported – we see the MAGA sickness spreading like wildfire through Congress, but how is that happening?]
As a recovering media executive, I’ve been thinking a lot (as I’m sure they are!) about how to increase MSNBC’s reach in ways that would also improve their bottom line. I saw Luke Russert on Morning Joe this am promoting their MSNBC LIVE initiative which looks awesome and which clearly indicates they are willing to invest in new ways to try to get the word out.
WHAT IF MSNBC chose this moment to really LEAN EVEN MORE into the idea that you’re going to get coverage of this critical moment in our history that you won’t find anywhere else?? What if they truly break from the horserace, cherry-picking polls, endlessly focusing on the two men to the exclusion of what they will DO, overly analyzing every piece of Trump courtroom drama, etc. and make it their mission to cover the issues voters need to know about IN DEPTH!! AND WHAT IF THEY STARTED TO MARKET THEMSELVES THIS WAY. There’s SO much negative sentiment about the MSM on social media (and rightly so!), but I see MSNBC doing something different right now and I think they need to tell more people about it!!!
Possible framing ideas, “Americans have a monumental choice in front of them this November. There’s so much at stake and yet finding reliable sources that will drill down into what’s actually happening has never been more difficult. There’s SO much information that you need to make a good decision. You hear lots of talk about “democracy” but what does that even mean? We’ll help you sort through all the noise and cover the subjects that actually matter. We’ll help you see for yourself so you can make an informed choice in possibly the most consequential election in our lifetimes.” I think there’s a POWERFUL place that could be carved out right now for the FIRST MOVER out of the downward MSM spiral and I think MSNBC is the news outlet best positioned to take on this role. It could help them GROW their share of cable viewers which I know is what’s most profitable, but given the shrinking cable audience universe, it won’t be enough to help save democracy.
None of the excellent work all the MSNBC hosts are doing, even if marketed better, will mean ANYTHING if they don’t reach the people NOT watching cable news. I have one possible idea for how to increase MSNBC’s reach AND their bottom line. Having professionally lived through the rise of streaming and what it’s doing to linear cable at Warner Bros. Discovery, I have no idea where NBC Universal is on thinking about its Peacock streaming platform, but I can almost guarantee that they are desperately looking for younger viewers wherever they can find them.
What if in launching a new “Focus on Democracy” (or whatever) editorial stance they actually made more of their primetime line-up (+Morning Joe, +Deadline White House, +The Beat, +The Reidout), +the excellent weekend shows) available on Peacock NEXT DAY and offered a 3-6months free Peacock subscription promotion? They could advertise it ALL over social media to find the younger people wherever they are and show them that they can come back or check them out for the first time. I know young influencers like Victor Shi would JUMP at the chance to highlight the great work the MSNBC hosts are doing and encourage other young people to sign up. It could be a great way for Peacock to gain more subscribers, younger or otherwise, and maybe even keep them past the free promotion since the Peacock monthly fee is relatively small and they will have more than proved their value to the subscriber at that point.
LET PEOPLE KNOW THEY ARE GOING TO PROVIDE A DIFFERENT KIND OF COVERAGE OF THIS RACE THAN YOU WILL FIND ANYWHERE ELSE AND THEN LET THEM SAMPLE IT FOR FREE, EVEN IF YOU DON’T HAVE CABLE.
I watch MSNBC regularly and know all of the anchors take their job to try to inform the American public very seriously, despite the moments in the last year in which they’ve gotten things very wrong. In particular, their non-weekday daytime coverage has really kicked it up a notch in the last month or so and I’m sure they are thinking hard about how to reach more people in ways that would help save democracy AND increase their profits. Again, I have no idea if the above idea would work and I don’t pretend that smarter minds than mine aren't thinking about all of this RIGHT NOW (or at least I hope they are!), but I’m tired of just thinking these things and thought I would send my thoughts your way in case you felt like sharing them with any of the people you know there, since I don't know anyone, lol!
THANK YOU for what you’re doing, Simon – Hopium has become a lifeline for someone who wanted to join the fight but wasn’t sure how. I’m looking forward to the Zoom tomorrow night.
btw - the partisan split on this poll is 25 D/29 R/29 I (with the remainder not saying). Biden is up 5 with independents and Democrats say they will vote for Biden 9 points more than Republicans for Trump (82 vs 73). Biden leads this one, but it's actually even more skewed than NYT is.
I saw that too — it’s interesting. It’s also notable that this is a poll of adults, not just registered or likely voters. In general RV polls have been more favorable to Biden this year, so it’s unexpected (although perhaps encouraging) that he’s up 2 even in a less engaged sample.
One thing I’ve also noticed is that Biden’s margins among GOP-leaning pollsters have started to improve a bit in the past week or two, to the point where he’s even taken the lead in the most recent TIPP poll. Time will tell, but we might be starting to see a consistent positive shift for him regardless of partisan lean. Fingers crossed, even if it just helps shift the media narrative to some degree.
Talking about new polls and the problems with the NYT poll . I have problems with the new CBS poll and I couldn't find any breakdowns per age, demographics, education or income per side bars.
I'm pleasantly pleased with the new polling by the way.
What is happening here is so important. I was in meeting at work today and the NYT poll was brought up as evidence that "Biden is losing." I was able to cite the AP "Vote Cast" survey and a few others (to at least create a counter narrative). The NYT is powerful and flawed. It is critical that we push back . Grateful for this community.
Also, sorry for the double post, we are needed to put out positive story post SOTU. Just read this article that notes that No Labels is doing this opposite (it's sickening, a former Dem fundraiser runs this group).
"No Labels officials – who have repeatedly said they don’t want to become a spoiler that would result in Donald Trump going back to the White House – have urged prospective candidates and others to prioritize accusing Biden of having politically toxic positions he does not actually hold. They are hoping to spread those accusations more widely next week, ahead of Biden’s annual State of the Union to Congress.
In a private presentation the group has circulated among members and prospective candidates are two claims that No Labels officials say would be damaging to Biden, even as they acknowledge the claims aren’t true: that he is for “open borders” and that he is captive to a “far left” that “wants to abandon Israel” and is “sympathetic to Hamas.”
Those claims, alongside accusing Biden of overseeing a ballooning national debt, are the best way to appeal to voters, No Labels suggests in slides from their presentation obtained by CNN.
One official who verified that the slides were accurate — after audibly sighing in frustration as each was described — said these claims were meant as “some themes that Biden should be considering before the State of the Union.”
“These are ideas that I would imagine any No Labels unity ticket would be embracing,” the No Labels official added. “We’re putting that out there.”
I was just on a zoom interview with Davis Wasserman. Very negative on Biden.
Said he will lose. Should step down, it would give Dems a better chance. Kamala and Gavin can’t win … the ‘good’ Dems are Governors, but they are too new.
Went on to say trump can avoid an accountable for Roe, he’s neutralized his crimes, and more.
I had to get off call, I don’t need to be angry. How3ver, he has an influential voice, so can’t just ignore.
Suggest this is just the kind of toxic stuff that distracts and we work not to get pulled into. We’re not naive: we’re informed with eyes wide open to what’s going on but we still choose to take heart, resist the chum and work hard. Our elections show we’re winning and every day more and more Dems/others are unifying to save our democracy.
I’m glad for this campaign of appreciation to the president. In all the counterproductive nonsense that has been thrown around inside the family about whether he should step aside, I feel like the fact that he’s one of the most accomplished and consequential presidents since the Civil War has been lost. And I might add….there was panic that Lincoln was going to lose and should step aside well into the 1864 cycle as well….right up until there wasn’t. Joe’s our guy and he’s earned a hell of a lot more appreciation than he has recently thus far
Hi, Simon. I wonder if you would consider inviting Rachel Bitcofer to speak to the Hopium community - she is training all 57 party committees and it would be helpful to understand the new approach.
Rachel "Hit ’em where it hurts" Bitecofer?
As Michelle Obama said: "When they go low, we go high."
My take on that: "When they go for the gut-punch, we go for the jugular!"
https://www.axios.com/2024/03/05/biden-new-strategy-attack-trump-2024-election
Simon, I second this request -- I actually came here to make the same comment! I am currently reading Bitecofer's new book, "Hit 'Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game." She and her book would make for a worthwhile Hopium segment.
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/726798/hit-em-where-it-hurts-by-rachel-bitecofer-with-aaron-murphy/
All I can say is, I wouldn’t want to be in a street fight against her….she ain’t messin’ around 😂
We have a ton of work to do. Biden is weaker too, we cannot ignore it. But I’m ready to go! 💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻
We of course have work to do but by no measurable metric is Biden weaker. Polls with methodology that does not skew results show a close competitive race (see above). Biden has the incumbent advantage. There has not been much statistical change in polling regarding the war in the Middle East (two guys in front of a polling place in Michigan or wherever that vote uncommitted aren't a statistical sample.) And as a woman, I can tell you unequivocally that Dobbs changed the landscape. But don't take my word for it. Check out Democratic performance since Dobbs was handed down.
And if you feel Biden is weaker, then just do the work. Please don't say that here on a big day when folks are busy trying to get out the vote.
For those interested, here is a Medium piece that summarizes the arguments about abortion. Please either share it if you agree, or if you don't like anything about it (including tone or small wording changes) please email me at vthuronyi@gmail.com and I will fix it. Here is my summary from the piece: "There is a stark divide between Republicans and Democrats on abortion. The ultimate goal of Republican anti-abortionists is a complete ban on abortions. They are also going after contraception and IVF, as part of a bigger plan to legislate “Christian” values, including traditional roles for women, and traditional gender roles more generally. Abortion bans are driving doctors from states with bans, killing pregnant women denied care, and forcing women to give birth to fetuses that are either dead or will die shortly after birth. The only way to stop this is to vote Republicans out of all elected offices (Presidency, Congress, and state offices)." https://medium.com/@vthuronyi/the-problem-with-abortion-bans-2513504f236f
Suggest you add: Abortion bans are also forcing raped girls and women to have their rapists babies, even those caused through incest. ( CDC has stats)
Thank you for doing this piece
Thanks, I will look it up and add this.
It's ok but not strong enough: First, it's not just "Republican anti-abortionists" -- it is mainstream in the MAGA Republican platform that women should not be able to make their own decisions about their own bodies and lives. And it's more than a "complete ban on abortions"--it's a complete *national* ban on abortions including medication abortion. Abortion bans deny reproductive justice for many women who, unable to make their own decisions about their own lives, are forced out of the workplace and into poverty. And it's not just "killing pregnant women denied care, and forcing women to give birth to fetuses that are either dead or will die shortly after birth." The denial of care to all women miscarrying does not just kill women, it adversely affects their health for the rest of their lives.
Thanks for this helpful feedback. I will revise along the lines you suggest.
One other suggestion: instead of anti-abortion, use "forced-birthers." Much more accurate statement of what they want.
I strongly agree with Pamela.
A recent cartoon shows a woman researcher or doctor looking at a frozen embryo through a microscope, as she voices this thought: "I wonder what it’s like to be considered a person."
Here is a very interesting analysis of Biden’s approval rates. The author picks apart FiveThirtyEight’s numbers and shows they’re highly misleading. The truth isn’t nearly as bad for Biden as the pundits keep telling us.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/3/2227208/-Biden-s-Approval-Trends-Aren-t-What-538-Claims
Not an option. This stuff is in our daily discourse, and we need to deal with it.
It seems to me that if this is correct, it should be a leading indicator, and we should start to see improvement in the polling averages following this trend. Does that seem right to you?
Yes, I believe you are right – and it appears several of the polls cited by Simon show this.
Also, many of the people expressing "disapproval" do support President Biden, but have specific frustrations, perhaps based on things moving too slowly. Topics such as the minimum wage not being raised, no Medicare-for-all, greedflation, Gaza, Build Back Better not passing, etc. etc. etc.
(Surprise: the President is not omnipotent.)
Thanks for sharing this analysis. It’s an interesting way of looking at it and helps avoid issues with 538’s approach that have always bothered me. It may also help explain why Biden’s horse race polling is better than you might expect based on just his approval averages.
Thank you Simon. I just filled out my primary ballot and wrote a postcard to the president. For the latter I wrote "Thank you for being a good president. Your job is not easy and is often thankless but many people like me see what you're doing and appreciate it. I will do everything I can to ensure you win a second term."
I got three people to sign up for Hopium yesterday and two of them have already agreed to write postcards with me. I am personally trying to pump up every Democrat I meet in a loving way because that's what all this is about and why I value this community. We are full of love for each other and this beautiful world and our actions show it. As my mom used to say, "Everything is easy with the mouth." Doing the work is the next step and I'm so grateful to Simon for creating this space for all of us to stay positive, stay focused, and not be tossed around like ships at sea.
You win best member today! Great work! 😎🇺🇸
Hi, Simon.....I have a strong belief that President Biden will get the votes needed to be re-elected. As I look at the landscape, the strategy is GOTV including new voter registrations. I am a bit concerned at some of the obstacles that are rising. I say this not to discourage anyone, but to identify them so we can overcome them. Last night Rachel Maddow highlighted the tactics that the Republicans are using to throw people off the voter rolls...100 here, 1,000 there. It was pretty enlightening. So I am wondering if you might suggest some tactics of our own to avert this. Don't want to come upon this rock in the road without tools.
I have been reminding people to check their voter registration for this very reason. Vote.org and vote411.org are perfect for this.
FORGIVE ME IN ADVANCE FOR THE LONG POST!
Simon, I LOVED your TNR article and I really sparked to your comment in this post, “We know from public and private polling that when voters are informed about Biden’s accomplishments, his numbers go up. When voters are informed about Trump’s awfulness his numbers go down.”
I’m sure tons of smart people are hard at work on how to better inform the electorate in the midst of the asymmetrical information war we find ourselves in, and I know your focus is not media criticism, but I did want to mention that I think the MSNBC primetime line-up has been doing a MUCH better job of late! I think they understand the remit perfectly and yet so few people watch linear TV anymore.
With the endless obsession about every procedural twist in the Trump Trials on hold at the moment (long may that continue!), it’s created SO much more room for the kinds of in-depth reporting on the topics voters need so much more information about AND MSNBC IS DOING IT! Last night alone, their analysis of yesterday’s SCOTUS decision had more breadth and depth than anywhere else I’ve seen. AND they covered a TON of other very important topics as well. As a currently unemployed media executive (albeit in cable entertainment, not news) I’ll admit I watch WAY too much political news coverage right now, but even I learned something new in every single hour last night. Right now, theirs is first in class coverage and we need great in-depth video news content to reach as many people as possible this year if we’re going to win this. I’m sure they know this, but linear cable only is not going to do the job.
Especially when they highlight the MAGA extremist laws already passed in Red captured States, how those laws are affecting everyday people, along with highlighting the real people doing the work on the ground fighting back, it powerfully focuses the mind on the threat we face in a way nothing else does. How will letting Trump back in office affect your everyday life? Just look at what MAGA extremists are ALREADY doing. Look at the hate, violence and extreme, freedom killing laws that are ALREADY HERE and that they want to Nationalize. Meet the people on the ground who are already fighting back hard! The Republican interviewed on The Reidout last night who brought the Colorado 14 Amendment case was particularly good – let’s profile more Republicans who are joining the fight! [I personally also think that the Republican Party mob boss threat and violence tactics are underreported – we see the MAGA sickness spreading like wildfire through Congress, but how is that happening?]
As a recovering media executive, I’ve been thinking a lot (as I’m sure they are!) about how to increase MSNBC’s reach in ways that would also improve their bottom line. I saw Luke Russert on Morning Joe this am promoting their MSNBC LIVE initiative which looks awesome and which clearly indicates they are willing to invest in new ways to try to get the word out.
WHAT IF MSNBC chose this moment to really LEAN EVEN MORE into the idea that you’re going to get coverage of this critical moment in our history that you won’t find anywhere else?? What if they truly break from the horserace, cherry-picking polls, endlessly focusing on the two men to the exclusion of what they will DO, overly analyzing every piece of Trump courtroom drama, etc. and make it their mission to cover the issues voters need to know about IN DEPTH!! AND WHAT IF THEY STARTED TO MARKET THEMSELVES THIS WAY. There’s SO much negative sentiment about the MSM on social media (and rightly so!), but I see MSNBC doing something different right now and I think they need to tell more people about it!!!
Possible framing ideas, “Americans have a monumental choice in front of them this November. There’s so much at stake and yet finding reliable sources that will drill down into what’s actually happening has never been more difficult. There’s SO much information that you need to make a good decision. You hear lots of talk about “democracy” but what does that even mean? We’ll help you sort through all the noise and cover the subjects that actually matter. We’ll help you see for yourself so you can make an informed choice in possibly the most consequential election in our lifetimes.” I think there’s a POWERFUL place that could be carved out right now for the FIRST MOVER out of the downward MSM spiral and I think MSNBC is the news outlet best positioned to take on this role. It could help them GROW their share of cable viewers which I know is what’s most profitable, but given the shrinking cable audience universe, it won’t be enough to help save democracy.
None of the excellent work all the MSNBC hosts are doing, even if marketed better, will mean ANYTHING if they don’t reach the people NOT watching cable news. I have one possible idea for how to increase MSNBC’s reach AND their bottom line. Having professionally lived through the rise of streaming and what it’s doing to linear cable at Warner Bros. Discovery, I have no idea where NBC Universal is on thinking about its Peacock streaming platform, but I can almost guarantee that they are desperately looking for younger viewers wherever they can find them.
What if in launching a new “Focus on Democracy” (or whatever) editorial stance they actually made more of their primetime line-up (+Morning Joe, +Deadline White House, +The Beat, +The Reidout), +the excellent weekend shows) available on Peacock NEXT DAY and offered a 3-6months free Peacock subscription promotion? They could advertise it ALL over social media to find the younger people wherever they are and show them that they can come back or check them out for the first time. I know young influencers like Victor Shi would JUMP at the chance to highlight the great work the MSNBC hosts are doing and encourage other young people to sign up. It could be a great way for Peacock to gain more subscribers, younger or otherwise, and maybe even keep them past the free promotion since the Peacock monthly fee is relatively small and they will have more than proved their value to the subscriber at that point.
LET PEOPLE KNOW THEY ARE GOING TO PROVIDE A DIFFERENT KIND OF COVERAGE OF THIS RACE THAN YOU WILL FIND ANYWHERE ELSE AND THEN LET THEM SAMPLE IT FOR FREE, EVEN IF YOU DON’T HAVE CABLE.
I watch MSNBC regularly and know all of the anchors take their job to try to inform the American public very seriously, despite the moments in the last year in which they’ve gotten things very wrong. In particular, their non-weekday daytime coverage has really kicked it up a notch in the last month or so and I’m sure they are thinking hard about how to reach more people in ways that would help save democracy AND increase their profits. Again, I have no idea if the above idea would work and I don’t pretend that smarter minds than mine aren't thinking about all of this RIGHT NOW (or at least I hope they are!), but I’m tired of just thinking these things and thought I would send my thoughts your way in case you felt like sharing them with any of the people you know there, since I don't know anyone, lol!
THANK YOU for what you’re doing, Simon – Hopium has become a lifeline for someone who wanted to join the fight but wasn’t sure how. I’m looking forward to the Zoom tomorrow night.
Erin Wanner
Hi Simon, you can add another Ipsos poll to your list showing Biden tied or leading: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/apathy-vs-frenzy-general-election-difference-between-biden-facing-haley-instead-trump-each
btw - the partisan split on this poll is 25 D/29 R/29 I (with the remainder not saying). Biden is up 5 with independents and Democrats say they will vote for Biden 9 points more than Republicans for Trump (82 vs 73). Biden leads this one, but it's actually even more skewed than NYT is.
I saw that too — it’s interesting. It’s also notable that this is a poll of adults, not just registered or likely voters. In general RV polls have been more favorable to Biden this year, so it’s unexpected (although perhaps encouraging) that he’s up 2 even in a less engaged sample.
One thing I’ve also noticed is that Biden’s margins among GOP-leaning pollsters have started to improve a bit in the past week or two, to the point where he’s even taken the lead in the most recent TIPP poll. Time will tell, but we might be starting to see a consistent positive shift for him regardless of partisan lean. Fingers crossed, even if it just helps shift the media narrative to some degree.
🤞🏻
Talking about new polls and the problems with the NYT poll . I have problems with the new CBS poll and I couldn't find any breakdowns per age, demographics, education or income per side bars.
I'm pleasantly pleased with the new polling by the way.
What is happening here is so important. I was in meeting at work today and the NYT poll was brought up as evidence that "Biden is losing." I was able to cite the AP "Vote Cast" survey and a few others (to at least create a counter narrative). The NYT is powerful and flawed. It is critical that we push back . Grateful for this community.
Also, sorry for the double post, we are needed to put out positive story post SOTU. Just read this article that notes that No Labels is doing this opposite (it's sickening, a former Dem fundraiser runs this group).
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/02/politics/no-labels-biden-trump/index.html
"No Labels officials – who have repeatedly said they don’t want to become a spoiler that would result in Donald Trump going back to the White House – have urged prospective candidates and others to prioritize accusing Biden of having politically toxic positions he does not actually hold. They are hoping to spread those accusations more widely next week, ahead of Biden’s annual State of the Union to Congress.
In a private presentation the group has circulated among members and prospective candidates are two claims that No Labels officials say would be damaging to Biden, even as they acknowledge the claims aren’t true: that he is for “open borders” and that he is captive to a “far left” that “wants to abandon Israel” and is “sympathetic to Hamas.”
Those claims, alongside accusing Biden of overseeing a ballooning national debt, are the best way to appeal to voters, No Labels suggests in slides from their presentation obtained by CNN.
One official who verified that the slides were accurate — after audibly sighing in frustration as each was described — said these claims were meant as “some themes that Biden should be considering before the State of the Union.”
“These are ideas that I would imagine any No Labels unity ticket would be embracing,” the No Labels official added. “We’re putting that out there.”
Speaking of CNN, this came out earlier today. Glad the NYT is getting the "recognition" it deserves:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/05/media/new-york-times-trump-coverage-backlash/index.html
President Biden is reportedly going to hammer on corporate greed at SOTU. CEO’s are making it easy for him… Kellogg’s CEO.⬇️
“Cereal for dinner is something that is probably more on trend now, and we would expect to continue as that consumer is under pressure.””
📣https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-inflation-corporate-profits-rcna141413
Simon
I was just on a zoom interview with Davis Wasserman. Very negative on Biden.
Said he will lose. Should step down, it would give Dems a better chance. Kamala and Gavin can’t win … the ‘good’ Dems are Governors, but they are too new.
Went on to say trump can avoid an accountable for Roe, he’s neutralized his crimes, and more.
I had to get off call, I don’t need to be angry. How3ver, he has an influential voice, so can’t just ignore.
Your thought?.
He was wrong in 2022 and he’s wrong now. Easy to ignore him!
Not for nothing but he was also wrong in 2020 when he said there would be a big blue wave so he’s zero for two, and about to be zero for three.
Still, he is viewed as one of the best data guys. He is paid attention to by politicos and journalists. Just ignoring is ineffective.
I guess he's going purely by the numbers.
Sounds like an example for:
Do more Worry less
Suggest this is just the kind of toxic stuff that distracts and we work not to get pulled into. We’re not naive: we’re informed with eyes wide open to what’s going on but we still choose to take heart, resist the chum and work hard. Our elections show we’re winning and every day more and more Dems/others are unifying to save our democracy.
All the best
Kyrsten Sinema announced today that she isn't running for Senate
(Crowd cheering) Ruben, Ruben, Ruben....
PS to be clear knew he was running I just hope that most of her support will go to him.
I’m glad for this campaign of appreciation to the president. In all the counterproductive nonsense that has been thrown around inside the family about whether he should step aside, I feel like the fact that he’s one of the most accomplished and consequential presidents since the Civil War has been lost. And I might add….there was panic that Lincoln was going to lose and should step aside well into the 1864 cycle as well….right up until there wasn’t. Joe’s our guy and he’s earned a hell of a lot more appreciation than he has recently thus far