Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Biden Has Opened A Up Small Lead, David Pepper Joins Us Thursday, New With Dems Released
Been a good month of polling for the Democrats, Manchin is at 2%
Happy Friday all! A few things today, and note the original version of this post which went out earlier this morning had the wrong Morning Consult numbers, which are now corrected, below. This correction doesn’t change the analysis or conclusions but need everything here to be accurate. Sorry about that all.
Biden Leads in 4 New Polls - Here at Hopium we believe Democrats are having a good summer, Republicans a bad one. We are starting to get confirmation of this in new, large sample, independent polling (all polls can be found on 538):
YouGov/Yahoo 47-43 Biden/Trump
Morning Consult 43-42 (was mistakenly reported as 43-38)
YouGov/Economist 42-42 (Trump had a 4 pt lead here in June)
In these 5 polls Biden has a 3-4 point lead in the race. That feels about right. As we often say here, heading into 2024 I would much rather be us than them. Here’s a bit more data to back that sentiment up.
since publishing a new AARP poll has come out finding Biden up 47-43 over Trump in battleground House districts, and there was an Ipsos/Reuters poll I missed which has Biden up 37-35. Data all pointing in the same direction - Biden opening up a small lead now.
In going through data in recent weeks, it’s become pretty clear that the soaring unpopularity of Trump and the Republicans is just not getting enough attention. The GOP brand is very degraded right now, and if Trump and other Republicans get indicted for attempting to steal an American election it is likely to become even more degraded. It’s why on Wednesday I argued Republicans are teetering on a political abyss, and why we have to be striving to get to 55 next year. Their historic awfulness is giving us a real chance to grow our coalition and go big in 2024 (and in Ohio, Virginia and Kentucky this year).
The Monmouth poll tested a named “No Labels” Manchin/Huntsman ticket and found it at 2% on an initial ballot test:
I am not surprised by these results as there is no “middle lane” in American politics. True independents make up about 10% of the electorate, and it’s my guess that today the ceiling for No Labels is in the high single digits. All this talk of them being able to mount a real campaign and not be Jill Stein is just jaw-dropping bullshit. As the Monmouth pollster wrote in their summary memo, Difficult Path for 2024 Third-Party Bid:
“We are still very much in the realm of hypotheticals, where voters’ assessment of their actual behavior can be unreliable. However, the more concrete you make an alternative to the major party candidates, the less attractive it becomes. A third-party nominee needs to capture voters’ imagination to be successful. It is not clear that such a charismatic figure exists right now.”
You can find more of my thinking about the West-Stein, RFK and Manchin candidacies here. The bottom line - as long as Biden is strong, none of these candidacies will amount to anything. It’s why we have to keep building him up, make him and the Democrats as strong as they can be next year. Loud and proud peeps!
I’ll be diving into all this data in my monthly political discussion with the broader Hopium community on Tuesday at 8pm EST. RSVP to catch it live, or watch a recording later in the week when you have the time. Look forward to seeing everyone!
David Pepper Joins Us Next Thursday at 1pm EST to Talk The Vote No Campaign in Ohio, and His New Book Too - Excited to announce that the great David Pepper will be joining us live next Thursday at 1pm EST to give us an update on the all-important Vote No campaign in Ohio, and to talk about his new book Saving Democracy: A User’s Manual for Every American. You can RSVP here for this Zoom-based event, and if you can’t make it live a recording will be available here for when you can get to it.
To learn more and get involved in the Vote No campaign (the election is Aug 8th - we can use your help!) check out David’s Substack post, and do subscribe while there. This is going to be a great event - hope you can make it.
July With Dems Now Available For Viewing - Thanks to everyone who joined me for yesterday’s live viewing of the new and fresh July With Democrats Things Get Better. It’s my hope all Hopium readers will watch this 30-minute presentation sometime this summer. Much of our work and understandings here flows from the insights in this presentation, and spending time with With Dems will be helpful for all the information warriors out there working to make the case for Joe Biden and the Democrats this year. You can also watch it on YouTube for those who prefer that option. And do share with friends and colleagues you think might be interested - will get them all fired up and ready to go!
Keep working hard all - Simon