If I’ve learned anything from the way media covered the drop in inflation, everybody be ready for the conversation to move from “Trump is beating Biden” to “Well, everyone, it’s nuanced and polling is complicated”.
In preparation, let’s keep being loud and proud of what Joe Biden has accomplished.
- investing in infrastructure
- bringing manufacturing jobs back
- increasing access to health care
- supporting veterans
- building a clean air and clean water future
- protecting children from lead poisoning
We’ve got a good president in Joe Biden, folks, and Americans know it. Let’s make sure they keep hearing it 🥳🇺🇸
I did have a question, Simon. You said only 9% of independents. Can you share your source? I had followed a third party for a bit and they said 50% independent/unaffiliated. Now that I’ve learned more, I am thinking their polling was of all eligible voters while yours might be of likely voters?
Again, now that I’ve learned more I think there error in the 50% number is that the disengaged/unaffiliated of it likely would affiliate with the Democratic Party if they 1. Knew the policies they stand for and 2. Heard about Joe Biden and the Democratic Party’s impressive track record of governing well since 1989 and especially with Biden’s presidency.
Many voters who register independent or say they are independent always vote one way or the other in every election and are "weak partisans." One should assume each party starts next year at 44-45, leaving very little room for an independent run, and those who remain independent are not a monolithic centrist block either. Your friends in the third party are making stuff up.
Total Democrat/Lean ................................................. 42
Total Republican/Lean .............................................. 41
A lot of make believe data in this space around independents and third parties. No question younger people are registering more outside the two party system, but that does make them either open to a pro-fossil fuels, bad on guns No Labels candidacy.
I think you mean “that does not make them open”, right? Interesting that young people are registering at a higher rate outside of the two parties. Do we have youth registration data on what parties they are registering for?
We are rightly concerned about a "No Labels" candidate. Our primary offense against this is, as Simon tells us, to be "loud and proud" about President Biden's accomplishments. But I also think we need other tactics, especially when someone supposedly "moderate" like Lisa Murkowski tells everyone she would support a Manchin candidacy. https://twitter.com/FiringLineShow/status/1682112962675261440
An idea I've heard is a writing campaign to prominent people pushing Joe M and No Labels, such as Murkowski, Joe Liebermann and even Joe Manchin, clearly telling why this would elect Trump. They surely don't want to be remembered for enabling the return of T. Let's give them as many facts and solid data why this would happen. Another example, if you haven't already listened, is Heather Cox Richardson's "Now and Then" podcast on the 1844 election. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-third-party-problem/id1567665859?i=1000621607951
Information Warriors are needed to counter the "liberal" NY Times Op Ed page. E.g., today, Dr. Krugman writes there's TOO MUCH American economic triumphalism: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/opinion/american-economny-europe-triumphalism.html. Yes, he's right about some metrics -- but it's a matter of messaging and timing. Surely he knows his "we're not doing that great" column will be used by Fox et al as "even the liberal Krugman says ..."
And Pamela Paul (recently seen writing how liberals should pay attention to the bigoted views of DeSantis voters) has a dismal piece about 2024.
Another great presentation Simon! I attended the CEBV/Laura Brill presentation last night. Very inspiring. I am hoping to be able to sponsor a small school in AZ. I can tell your slides & info are getting out to the media wonks. Great to recognize it. Finally! we are 'getting' it. See you next week. Thanks for all you are doing for our democracy
Great news!
If I’ve learned anything from the way media covered the drop in inflation, everybody be ready for the conversation to move from “Trump is beating Biden” to “Well, everyone, it’s nuanced and polling is complicated”.
In preparation, let’s keep being loud and proud of what Joe Biden has accomplished.
- investing in infrastructure
- bringing manufacturing jobs back
- increasing access to health care
- supporting veterans
- building a clean air and clean water future
- protecting children from lead poisoning
We’ve got a good president in Joe Biden, folks, and Americans know it. Let’s make sure they keep hearing it 🥳🇺🇸
Biden is doing his job for all of us which Trump never did. Important to emphasize this.
And Biden is doing his job WELL. Can't emphasise that enough.
Here here!
Add to the list:
- restoring America's standing internationally
- reinvigorating NATO
- helping thwart Russian aggression in Europe
- supporting Ukraine in its fight for democracy
- reinforcing the independence of the DOJ
- getting more judges--and more women and BIPOC judges--confirmed than...(I forget--a lot of presidents? )
- making presidential speeches tolerable to listen to again!
also, making presidential speeches tolerable to listen to again!
All the other stuff is so, SO nice...I am so grateful we can enjoy speeches again 😀
I did have a question, Simon. You said only 9% of independents. Can you share your source? I had followed a third party for a bit and they said 50% independent/unaffiliated. Now that I’ve learned more, I am thinking their polling was of all eligible voters while yours might be of likely voters?
Again, now that I’ve learned more I think there error in the 50% number is that the disengaged/unaffiliated of it likely would affiliate with the Democratic Party if they 1. Knew the policies they stand for and 2. Heard about Joe Biden and the Democratic Party’s impressive track record of governing well since 1989 and especially with Biden’s presidency.
This from the June NBC News poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23856891-230169-nbc-june-2023-poll_622-abortion-poll-release QF4
Many voters who register independent or say they are independent always vote one way or the other in every election and are "weak partisans." One should assume each party starts next year at 44-45, leaving very little room for an independent run, and those who remain independent are not a monolithic centrist block either. Your friends in the third party are making stuff up.
Total Democrat/Lean ................................................. 42
Total Republican/Lean .............................................. 41
Strong Democrat ......................................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ............................................ 9
Independent/lean Democrat ........................................ 9
Strictly Independent ..................................................... 12
Independent/lean Republican ...................................... 12
Not very strong Republican ......................................... 6
Strong Republican ....................................................... 23
Other (VOL) ............................................................... 4
Not sure ..................................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
Thanks so much. I had that uneasy suspicion about the data, so that you for pointing me to data that clarifies the reality.
A lot of make believe data in this space around independents and third parties. No question younger people are registering more outside the two party system, but that does make them either open to a pro-fossil fuels, bad on guns No Labels candidacy.
I think you mean “that does not make them open”, right? Interesting that young people are registering at a higher rate outside of the two parties. Do we have youth registration data on what parties they are registering for?
We are rightly concerned about a "No Labels" candidate. Our primary offense against this is, as Simon tells us, to be "loud and proud" about President Biden's accomplishments. But I also think we need other tactics, especially when someone supposedly "moderate" like Lisa Murkowski tells everyone she would support a Manchin candidacy. https://twitter.com/FiringLineShow/status/1682112962675261440
An idea I've heard is a writing campaign to prominent people pushing Joe M and No Labels, such as Murkowski, Joe Liebermann and even Joe Manchin, clearly telling why this would elect Trump. They surely don't want to be remembered for enabling the return of T. Let's give them as many facts and solid data why this would happen. Another example, if you haven't already listened, is Heather Cox Richardson's "Now and Then" podcast on the 1844 election. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-third-party-problem/id1567665859?i=1000621607951
But do they have jackets like the one Melania wore in their wardrobes?
Information Warriors are needed to counter the "liberal" NY Times Op Ed page. E.g., today, Dr. Krugman writes there's TOO MUCH American economic triumphalism: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/opinion/american-economny-europe-triumphalism.html. Yes, he's right about some metrics -- but it's a matter of messaging and timing. Surely he knows his "we're not doing that great" column will be used by Fox et al as "even the liberal Krugman says ..."
And Pamela Paul (recently seen writing how liberals should pay attention to the bigoted views of DeSantis voters) has a dismal piece about 2024.
Another great presentation Simon! I attended the CEBV/Laura Brill presentation last night. Very inspiring. I am hoping to be able to sponsor a small school in AZ. I can tell your slides & info are getting out to the media wonks. Great to recognize it. Finally! we are 'getting' it. See you next week. Thanks for all you are doing for our democracy
Absolutely 👍
Something to add to future versions of #WithDems! 😎👍
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/gender-pay-gap-at-record-low-6365018