88 Comments

Thank you Simon!

Wondering your thoughts on latest GA poll and what impact Hunter’s verdict might have?-I’m hoping little to none.

Expand full comment

I think the Hunter conviction will be marginal, but we have to see. Can you share the GA poll?

Expand full comment

Thank you Simon!

Here is a link to the GA poll that I’d like to have your thoughts about:

https://poll.qu.edu/

Expand full comment

I think there is evidence Trump moving to a neighboring state - Florida - and no Dem statewide to bolster the ticket makes GA harder this time. Not sure it's +2 R and +5 Trump but GA may be harder this time. Part of why we are focusing on the 3 checkmate states - AZ, NC and the blue dot.

Expand full comment

Probably worth considering that Florida, Georgia, and Alabama were all among the states that experienced the highest inflation over the past few years.

Expand full comment

What do they have in common? 3 awful MAGA Republican Governors.

Expand full comment

Plus, GA whose state minimum rate is $5.15 an hour, though the federal is $7.something. Both really anemic. In CT, $15.69 is the minimum and it goes up every year based on the federal cost index. Yes, it costs more to live here, but groceries are about the same everywhere, so is gas. So inflation has to really hurt in states that don't give a damn about their citizens. Much of FL problem is the inability to get home insurance at less than astronomical rates. And Alabama's problem - sorry, I must try and be kind. But your state governments are the problem in that it is nearly impossible to keep up with inflation. And how many years has the federal minimum wage been where it is? Close to 20 years, I believe.

Expand full comment

Perhaps, I was mostly pointing to it as a factor that GA might just be more of an up hill fight this cycle.

GA and FL both have been undergoing a lot of population growth which probably compounds many of the things you mentioned.

Expand full comment

Thank you Simon! Checkmate is the goal!

Expand full comment

What about Nevada?

Expand full comment

Hunter Biden and Donald Trump ought to be disqualified from running for office. Fair is fair.

Expand full comment

Is it the Quinnipiac one? https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3899

If so: "Republicans back Trump (94 - 4 percent), while Democrats back Biden (93 - 4 percent). Independents are evenly split, with 45 percent backing Trump and 45 percent backing Biden."

The poll is Trump+5 because it's R+2.

Expand full comment

How does this Quinnipiac Georgia poll compare with their previous ones? Any sign of the 17-point swing towards Biden amongst Independents that Interactive Polls was showing?

(No way 16% are voting for RFK Jr / Jill Stein / Cornel West / Chase Oliver.)

Expand full comment

QU doesn't do regular polls of individual states, they bounce around. PA in Jan, MI in March, WI in May, etc.

Expand full comment

I don’t think Hunter Biden’s conviction will move the needle much. Trump’s conviction was about *him*, and what he and his pals did to affect the election outcome; Joe Biden having a troubled adult child is not about Joe Biden himself. After all, Hunter’s not the one holding elected office.

Expand full comment

I think it's less that, and more that, much like people decided whether they think Trump is a crook long before May 30, people have been aware of Hunter and his problems for six years at this point. This isn't some sudden scandal, and if voters were going to think less of Joe Biden because of him, they already do. Plus, honestly, most low-information folks won't even know this happened - it will be out of the headlines by tomorrow.

Expand full comment

Excellent point!

Expand full comment

That’s a good point. The whole Hot-Mess-Hunter situation has been around for years. And I think people have more sympathy for an obviously loving dad whose son happens to be troubled*, than for a career criminal and crook who finally got his just desserts.

*And it’s not a whole set of dysfunctional siblings. Ashley and the late Beau seem to be doing or have done quite well for themselves, which will deflect the “Joe was a bad parent” accusations.

Expand full comment

These trends are encouraging!

If we continue our hard, well-targeted work, I think Biden-Harris will be victorious in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Given the grotesque candidate problems Republicans have, up and down the ballot, I believe we most likely also win Arizona, Nevada, Nebraska CD-02 (NE "Blue Dot") and North Carolina – but lose Georgia.

All in all, this re-elects President Biden with 303 Electoral Votes. That’s almost as many (306) as in 2020, and more than enough to offset shenanigans such as a handful of "disloyal electors".

Expand full comment

Simon has been pointing out - and I agree with him - that Republicans have a Very Bad Candidate Problem. “Can you self-fund? Great. Hooray! You’re in!” The RNC and state parties are pretty much broke, partly because the RNC has turned into Trump’s personal slush fund (a man’s gotta pay his legal bills, after all) and most of the Republican state parties are broke, as well - I believe it’s because donations are flowing directly to His Nibs and nobody bothers donating to their state Republican Party any more. Meaning, there are no funds to pour into bright young up-and-comers. So they have to draw their candidates from the Island of Misfit Multi-Millionaire Toys.

In New Jersey, the rich hotel magnate guy won over the Trump-endorsed local politician, yes, partly because of the line, but partly because Curtis Bashaw (had to look up his name) can self-fund. Christine Glassner, the mayor of…someplace, New Jersey, could not. It won’t make a difference because New Jersey will have Senator Andy Kim, but it goes to show just how much the Republicans are relying on candidates with their own money.

Expand full comment

In Maryland, David Trone told Democrats "Pick me, pick me! I can self-fund!"

Democratic voters said "No thanks, we know Angela Alsobrooks is the better candidate."

And in November, she will defeat ex-governor Larry Hogan!

Expand full comment

LMAO, David Trone as a “Pick Me!” We are lucky that we have the luxury to say “We want Angela Alsobrooks, because we can afford to fund the better candidate.” The DNC and DSCC are flush with cash. And, dare I say it, Gary Peters chairs the DSCC a lot better than Steve Daines (or Rick Scott) chairs the RNSC. Scott wasn’t asked back after 2022, but Peters was, let that sink in.

Alsobrooks just got an endorsement from none other than Madame VP herself. Kamala’s not going to stick her neck out unless she really thinks that Alsobrooks is the person for the job.

Expand full comment

re: R funding drain, bonuses for ppl [witnesses] staying loyal to T must also be a drain on RNC finances. Has anyone seen any reporting on where that money is coming from?

Expand full comment

Each morning, if I’m feeling apprehensive about the election, I handwrite 10 postcards to swing state voters. However, on mornings like today, when I’m feeling hopeful about election… I handwrite 10 postcards to swing state voters.

No rest ‘til November, guys! Let’s keep it up!

Expand full comment

love this!

Expand full comment

Sounds like a plan! Are you writing postcards to register voters, get them to sign up for Vote by Mail, or just general GOTV (get out the vote). Or a mixture?

So many postcard writing opportunities, so little time!

Expand full comment

This morning it was postcards to female Wisconsin Democratic voters, urging them to re-elect Sen. Tammy Baldwin, in order to prevent MAGA Republicans from banning abortion nationwide.

And yes, many many volunteer opportunities out there, just waiting for us, right now! So much better than worrying!

Expand full comment

Patrick ... How do you find your postcard opportunities? I am writing for Postcards to Swing State Voters and Field Team 6. I would love to write some issue specific cards as well, like the ones you mention above.

Thanks for all you do. You are a good human.

Expand full comment

The postcarding I did above was via Grassroots Dems HQ (http://grassrootsdems.org). I also do letter writing via Vote Forward (https://votefwd.org).

Expand full comment

I went back and reread this a second time. You have inspired me to be more consistent! Thanks, Patrick!

Expand full comment

MAGA adopting the Alito upside down flag may work to our benefit. Democrats can reclaim the (right side up) flag!

Expand full comment

This is a terrific point!

Expand full comment

Love it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Expand full comment

From reviewing the past two 538 models today - I think Morris makes a great point when he notes that frankly it's pointless to follow them closely until September. The 2016 race was absurd, with Clinton gaining and losing a dozen-plus points per day in the odds at times, and Biden's odds in 2020, while 89% on election day, were in the low 70s and high 60s for most of the summer.

FWIW, Biden actually hit 63% odds in April of this year before dropping to even in May.

Expand full comment

I think Presidential polls should be wished into the cornfield until August or so. Local and state polls can be useful, but I don’t think a lot of people are going to pay much attention to the elections until after summer fun has been had.

Expand full comment

I partly disagree. Well-done polls inform the campaigns and can guide their efforts and resource allocation. (Edit: And the efforts here at Hopium, too!) However, what I would like to see is this:

– More meta-analysis of all available quality polls, and by competent people.

– Far fewer articles (and none on the front page) about single polls.

– No credence and minimal attention to low-quality polls.

– Zero attention to pollsters that fail to fully reveal details, methodology and weighting.

– Nate Cohn given a sabbatical from the New York Times.

Expand full comment

What I really wish is that polls did not suck all the oxygen out of the room. That’s why I keep wanting the cornfield. A new poll drops, and, depending on the pundits and/or results, we are told “ignore the polls,” “it’s foolish to ignore the polls,” “this is a crappy polling outfit,” “well akshully no they’re pretty good…” gaaaah. When half of an online thread is eaten up by discussing the latest poll, it gets tedious.

I think the guidelines you laid down would make discussion of polls more bearable. I think a lot of people don’t know how to properly analyze polls, or distinguish between good polling outfits and the ones run by entrepreneurial but not very savvy teenagers out of their bedrooms (which actually happened back in 2022; a couple of polling outfits run by high schoolers got taken seriously) - it’s nice to see teenagers be go-getters with an interest in politics, but…

Keeping polling discussion from becoming forum kudzu would make political discussions more pleasant.

Expand full comment

Heather Cox Richardson’s newsletter last night was very timely- she quoted Simon and made a lot of the same arguments. It’s well worth a read in its entirety but I was struck with a paragraph in the middle that succinctly made a good case for Biden’s legislative prowess- thought it was a good little summation for us to have in our back pockets when talking with voters.

“In November 2021, Biden signed into law the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act. In June 2022 he signed into law the Safer Communities Act, a gun safety law. In August 2022 he signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act that invested billions in semiconductor manufacturing and science, and the Inflation Reduction Act that provided record funding for addressing climate change and permitted Medicare to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies over drug prices. Together, these legislative accomplishments rival those of Presidents Lyndon Baines Johnson and Franklin Delano Roosevelt, whose congressional majorities were far stronger than Biden’s.

The Republicans’ frantic pushback on Trump’s conviction reveals both that it has hurt him badly, and that without Trump projecting the dominance of a strongman, they have little to fall back on except for personal attacks on Biden.”

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/june-10-2024?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=20533&post_id=145525840&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=2lqihi&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Expand full comment

And another Biden accomplishment that isn’t getting enough credit: how he outmaneuvered OPEC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9-q2PWkZKIA

Expand full comment

I won’t be surprised if Biden gets a small bump after son Hunters’s conviction because it undermines the charge that Biden’s justice department plays political favorites.

Expand full comment

Interesting point! Moreover, President Biden has promised not to pardon his son, Hunter – whereas Trump has promised to pardon himself.

Expand full comment

Darned good news all around Thank you for putting the 'hope' in Hopium.

Expand full comment

I was a bit bummed about the North Carolina 40% probability. Any thoughts?

Expand full comment

As I wrote, I don't think that this reflective of the incredible extremism of the entire GOP ticket in NC, and what it means we can do. Kari Lake and Mark Robinson create big opportunities for us to make gains in both states and we have to keep fighting. Here are Hopium we are going for checkmate.

Expand full comment

Ahh, got it. (That’s what I get for reading on my iPhone…missed that:-) and certainly agree with continuing to fight…after all, I’m in Texas and not giving up here either:-)

Expand full comment

If you’re in Texas, join MAGA – Mothers Against Greg Abbott!

https://mothersagainstgregabbott.com/

Expand full comment

Oh, ArcticStones, I love Mothers...and see their signs everywhere! My main focus is voter registration (primarily with LWV but also other groups) and a lot of block walking in HD112, which we're trying to flip. For out of state, money and lots of postcards.

Expand full comment

Looking forward to seeing you in Seattle today, Simon! Hope other HC folks come too!

Expand full comment

Wish I could join. Had a medical appointment on the books. Enjoy a lovely PNW day!

Expand full comment

Great report!

Disappointed with recent NY Time reporting from voters responses to the recent convictions. Include in this the reporting from Frank Lutz focus groups. Do these people keep up with current events? It breaks my heart. “Trump is strong and Joe is weak” to paraphrase. Are these people aware that Trump called mortally wounded American soldiers ‘losers’. Apart from Presidential politics are they aware that Pennsylvania House Republican booed capitol policemen who were assaulted on Jan 6th? Trump and his party are today’s fascists.

Expand full comment

You know, I think there's a way that Trump's horrible statements about dead soldiers and wounded veterans fit into the narrative that he's weak. I think what it is really about is his terror of illness, injury and death. He's so paralyzed by this that he can't even do normal things like express support or condolences. I don't think it was the rain on his hair in France--I think he simply can't bring himself to be where heroes died. Maybe it's too complicated of a story, but I do think it a piece with his weak character.

Expand full comment

Trump is also scared of boats with batteries and sharks. Hate to tell him, unless you are rowing, rafting or sailing, boats have batteries. And then there is Electric Boat ( submarines) here in Groton. That clip of him should be played from now right thru election day. What a freaking nutcase!

Expand full comment

Frank Luntz is a republican with a really bad hair piece....but that's beside the point. I think you had best follow Sarah Longwell, another republican ( or former ? ) who finds very bad news for trump. The media likes Luntz and he has been good at marketing himself. The results I've been hearing from Sarah indicate voters are done with trump and won't vote for him no matter what, and further they don't think Hunter is Biden's fault. But that isn't what the NYT wants to write, is it? That said, I'm not as optimistic as Simon ( though I do think we are headed in the right direction ) but I come here because I get resources to use to convince others and suggestions on where to donate and so on, and the quality of the analysis and comments is quite good. I can only hope polling is broken and has not captured the true vibes just yet. I gotta believe that. This site is a breath of fresh air; Daily Kos has become a constant din of Biden is doomed and Gaza. I often have to send people here for the facts.

Expand full comment

I like the website Republican Voters Against Trump (https://rvat.org/). According to Wikipedia, Sarah Longwell is it's founder.

You might also like this article found on the website: https://rvat.org/new-swing-state-billboard-campaign-showcases-former-trump-voters-who-wont-support-him-over-his-felony-convictions/

I also like the wicked Lincoln project ads that can always be found on their YouTube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/@TheLincolnProject

Check out their latest ad

What Will You Tell Your Kids: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYxOwVe31Lg

Expand full comment

Great info about RVAT.org, Cheryl. Those wicked Lincoln Project ads ought to be on Fox News, not just their own YouTube channel.

Expand full comment

Yeah, RVAT ads are effective IMO because they are coming from Republicans!

Lincoln Project is showing specific ads in certain swing state markets and microtargeting them as well. I've heard that they like to show the ones that belittle Trump in whichever TV market where Trump is at the time. I think I read that they even put them on the Golf channel! Rick Wilson really likes to live rent free in Trump's head and cause Trump to have frequent meltdowns!

I know the ads are posted on X as well, but I don't do X so I keep up with them on YouTube and then share the best ones online. IIRC, their handle on X is Project Lincoln.

Expand full comment

"As I discussed yesterday the only really clean shot Republicans have now on Biden is on his age/weakness, which is why they are leaning so hard into this narrative frame; and why it is so important we take it away from them."

I believe that the GOP is currently setting up another self-inflicted defeat on this point. The more they hammer the narrative that Biden is ancient and demented, the more he impresses when he shows up the way he did at the State of the Union. When they trash him in the media day and night, they lower the bar and actually cause his strong performances to seem extraordinary. It is a self-defeating strategy for Republicans... but it's all they've got.

Expand full comment

And Trump is young and vigorous…? In a Ben Garrison cartoon, certainly, but in real life, he appears like the ailing old man he is. I think the only reason he might give the impression of more vigor is that he SHOUTS A LOT and Joe Biden is much more soft-spoken.

Expand full comment

Biden may be more soft-spoken than usual when he has been jetting across time zones doing the people’s business.

Trump is very forceful when he is speaking nonsense about boats sinking because their electric batteries are too heavy, and he would prefer being electrocuted by a sinking ship’s battery than being attacked by a shark. Hmm, Donald the MIT genius’s nephew, wouldn’t the shark be electrocuted too? And remember, you said earlier that magnets don’t work under water. Ever so forcefully.

Expand full comment

Encouraging polls today from 538.

Expand full comment

Thanks so much for your consistently strong and positive commentary and analysis. It's inspiring after all the negative stuff elsewhere. So no I plan to move to Arizona, or wherever someone with my experience might be useful, and work for the cause through the election.

Expand full comment

I'm just back from an event for Sen. Tim Kaine & our Democratic Congressional candidate, Ken Mitchell. I wound up sitting w/ a reporter from The Times. They're starting up a news service in the US that because they think there's a market for a more fact-based source. He was in VA today because they believe VA is a toss-up state, based on polls, as opposed to last time when we were like 10 points for Biden. I said that once the debates happen and people focus in, I expect VA to be safely blue. He just kept coming back to "But the polls." I have a fresh admiration for what you do, Simon!

Expand full comment

"They're starting up a news service in the US that because they think there's a market for a more fact-based source."

Who is the "they" that is setting up the new news service in the US. And what "The Times" was that reporter from? The New York Times? Some other paper? [Times of London?] I'm throwing out guesses here, Catherine G.

Expand full comment

Sorry. The Times of London.

Expand full comment

That's what we've got in common on both sides of the Atlantic, from Brits in London on Thames to Americans in New York on Hudson, it's *our* world, *we're* the center of it, and *our* "Times" are "The" Times. It's only fair! :)

Expand full comment

They just saw the polls fail wildly in India. you'd think the Times would think less of polling.

Expand full comment

Here's another opportunity to help in North Carolina. The Environmental Voter Project focuses on turning non-voting environmentalists into regular voters. More info here: https://www.environmentalvoter.org/?emci=f3e9f12c-d827-ef11-86d2-6045bdd9e096&emdi=71dff32e-e127-ef11-86d2-6045bdd9e096&ceid=7773080

They currently have a match for donations to their North Carolina effort, and there's a "Briefing and Fundraiser Mobilizing Environmental Voters in North Carolina" online event on Tuesday, June 18 at 8 pm Eastern, where you can learn about the project/donate/learn about phone-banking and other volunteer opportunities.

Expand full comment

EVP is very well organized. I previously wrote postcards for them and it was a positive experience.

Expand full comment

That has been my experience, too.

Expand full comment

I'm in NC and missed EVP's very early postcard campaign for the NC primary. I did write postcards for their NV campaign and will consider writing for them again if they have another NC campaign - depending on how many postcards I would be required to take (or if I can find a friend with whom to split them). For NV is was 100 postcards. but they upped it to 200 postcards for FL.

I'm already committed to writing NC postcards for the Postcards to Swing States (https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/) which are hold until October 15 and some Vote Forward letters as well.

Plus Reclaim our Vote (https://www.centerforcommonground.org/reclaim-our-vote) is a few weeks away from wrapping up a "Pledge to Vote" campaign in NC and they have GOTV one lined up for later this summer. (FYI, ROV will also be Launching a campaign in FL in a few days on 6/14). ROV focuses on BIPOC voters in southern states that have made voting difficult for this constituency.

Expand full comment

Yes, I support EVP with monthly donations. I believe they are highly effective. Thank you for sharing this info. Glad to hear that folks here are having worthwhile EVP experiences!

Expand full comment