Biden Staves Off GOP Sabotage, For Now

Courage. Opportunity. Democracy. Freedom

On Mondays, we do a more traditional newsletter, recapping our major areas of work, and looking ahead to the week. Due to the Memorial Day holiday it’s on Tuesday this week.

It’s The Economy, Stupid, Again - While it is still possible MAGA will try to wreck the bi-partisan deal the President and his team negotiated, it appears that Congress will come together this week and stave off default. The largest ideological caucus in the House (almost 100 Members), the New Democrats, endorsed the plan yesterday making it likely we’ll have enough votes in the House and get this thing signed this week.

I think we need to view this debt ceiling fiasco as the beginning of a big debate about the economy that will dominate our discourse through the election next year. As readers of Hopium know it’s my contention that winning this debate with the right is our most important narrative/message job in the coming months, and one we are very focused on here. It’s my hope that we can work together to establish a new and better understanding of recent American history, one in which:

Democrats = growth, lower deficits, American progress

Republicans = recession, higher deficits, American decline

I resend some of our recent economic postings below, and a video of a remarkable commentary from CNN’s Fareed Zakaria yesterday which echos many of the arguments you’ve heard here at Hopium - Joe Biden has been a good President; the country is better off and stronger than is understood; we have to stop letting MAGA’s rancid lies about America and Joe Biden dominate our daily discourse; and we are all lucky to live in such a remarkable nation. Do watch Zakaria’s commentary - it will lift you up this Tuesday morning.

Joe Biden Has Been A Good President

The Importance of Winning the Economic Argument This Year

It’s Time For A Big Rethink About How We Poll and Talk About The Economy

The May Jobs Report - The Economy Remains Remarkably Strong, Republicans Are Trying to Ruin It

With Democrats Things Get Better - May, 2023

Democrats Keep Winning Elections/Biden Campaign Goes on Offense - The strong Democratic performance we saw in the battlegrounds in 2022 is now showing up again in 2023 as we’ve had big wins in CO, FL, PA and WI in recent weeks. Thanks to all who helped Donna Deegan get it done in Jacksonville. Helping her was our first big political project here at Hopium, and it was an important strategic victory right in the heart of DeSantis country. Well done all.

As I keep saying, the Democratic Party is strong now, and more is possible for us. Be sure to read my take on the new Biden campaign’s strategy memo and note that it already launched a major advertising campaign in 8 battleground states - AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI. The Biden plan is encouraging, aggressive, and another sign that they coming out of the box strong and ready to take it to MAGA.

A recent Washington Post article, New data shows how little the electorate looks like the population, makes the case, powerfully, for the national youth voter registration drive I’ve been advocating:

The 2022 midterm elections did not go the way the Republican Party expected. Historical patterns suggested that the party would accrue a hefty majority in the House and regain control of the Senate. Those things didn’t happen for a variety of reasons.

But the party can take solace in one thing: The results would probably have been quite a bit worse if the electorate actually looked like the U.S. population.

It then shares this chart:

We have an opportunity to go big in 2024 due to their extremism, to Get to 55, and seize rhetorical, geographic and demographic real estate they’ve abandoned. So much is possible for us now - as we saw in the battlegrounds in 2022, as we just saw in CO, FL, PA, WI, as we saw in a recent Voters for Tomorrow youth poll showing very strong Biden numbers with 18-29 year olds. We need to make 2024 not just about winning, but by running up the score we can make sure the election becomes understood as a clear and historic repudiation of MAGA.

My Take on Polling 18 Months Out - In a new memo, I make some recommendations on how to be thinking about polling this far away from an election and given what happened with the false red wave last year. Key points:

• Polls Don’t Predict, They Are A Snapshot in Time

• Stick To The Averages, Never Allow A Single Poll Dictate Your Understand

• Polling Has Gotten Expensive and Hard

• The Amount of Public Polling By Right Leaning Outfits Is Increasing

• The WaPo/ABC Poll Was Bad, And Should Not Have Been Released.

Recent Hopium Events

My May Political Briefing and Discussion (5/16/23)

With Democrats Things Get Better, May 2023

Increasing Young Voter Turnout - A Conversation with Laura Brill of The Civics Center (5/4/23)

The Israeli Fight for Democracy - A View from Israel

My Discussion with Donna Deegan, Our Dynamic Candidate for Jacksonville Mayor

Upcoming Events

Thursday, June 8th, 1pm EST - June Showing of With Democrat Things Get Better - Learn more, RSVP

Friday, June 16th, Noon EST- June Political Briefing With Simon - RSVP

Wed, June 21st, 1pm EST - Hopium Paid Subscribers Briefing and Hangout With Simon (Note New Time)

Recent Press and Pods

Donna Deegan’s Jacksonville Victory Gives Florida Democrats a Morale Boost, Newsweek

How the great outdoors transformed Oregon and the fight for the White House - Mark Barabak, LA Times

The Analyst Who Saw Through 2022’s Red Mirage Has a Prediction for 2024 - Greg Sargent, Washington Post

Joe Biden Isn’t Popular. That Might Not Matter in 2024 - Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic

Hopium Housekeeping/Welcome New Subscribers! - If you are new to Hopium be sure to read my welcome statement and Ron Brownstein’s interview with me in the Atlantic.  Together they do a good job of explaining why I’ve shuttered NDN and have set up shop here at Substack. For those who like podcasts, this interview with How We Win is also a very good introduction to what we are trying to do here. My big presentation, With Democrats Things Get Better, is the closest thing we have to an orientation for the big arguments we make here, and is the original source for much of our Hopium. It takes about 30 minutes and is worth the time.

By becoming a paid subscriber here, you help provide the resources needed to keep all this work coming, and also get access to private events and materials not available to free subscribers. Only paid subscribers can offer comments and join the lively conversation taking place in our comments section. It’s a good deal, and hope you will consider becoming a paid subscriber today!

For those new to this new political project, welcome! We are glad to have you as part of our early days here at the Hopium Chronicles.

Keep working hard all - Simon