RCP averages have always stressed me out. Their interactive map is fun to play with which drives RCP poll engagement. Looking forward to the averages being debunked
Great info, Simon as always. Glad to see Biden in WI. yesterday and, of course, the poll results. Interesting how the investments Biden is making in certain manufacturing involves enough money to pull in private investment instead of, as in the FoxComm situation, put a greater onus on taxpayers. Also the training program at the local college is a wise investment. I take it these are 1 or 2-year programs not 4 years. In Arizona at the new TSMC semiconductor plant they are building (incentivized by Biden's CHIPs program) , there is a concern about there not, at this point, sufficient workers who can do the work that will be necessary. Important a community college or training school be implemented there by the time the plant is completed.
The issue of whether we will have enough trained workers to be able to execute against these opportunities and investments is something I will come back to soon. It's a good problem to have, and states are going to have to really step up and do their party as the community college and technical ed system in the US is so decentralized. It's also another reason we need to fix our immigration system and keep the right number of workers flowing in. All of this is why Trump's plans to deport the 11m undocumented immigrants already here, and curtain future legal immigration would be devastating for our economy and future growth. It would be a gift to Russia, China and our adversaries.
Yes I figured this worker training need must be addressed in states and localities. When BMW went to Greenville, or Greer, SC specifically in the 90's they invested in some community colleges in the area and have programs where they paid for the training. From all accounts, workers there have been very happy with their training and their earnings.
As are the staff that teaches in them; many are part time HS teachers or adjuncts trying to eke out a living going from school to school and being paid by the course. Getting a full time gig in higher education should not be harder than a Hollywood audition. Any investment in community colleges must involve decently paid full time instructors with full benefits. It's the right thing to do. A friend taught 40 years at a county college as an adjunct and was never once offered a full time gig, though he was least employed full time there as a media specialist. Many at the college were in the same boat.
I think some of the complaints by TSCM about not being able to find enough skilled workers in Arizona was in part linked to their negotiating strategy to get more funding from the US government. Once they were awarded I believe $8 billion to build the factory in Arizona they went from saying that there would years upon years of delays until late 2020s to build the new facilities to then saying they would be able to complete construction ahead of schedule by the end of this year.
So they were using the talking point as part of a leverage strategy. Very interesting. My main concern, particularly when it comes to climate change infrastructure projects, as distinct from these CHIPs manufacturers, there be no delay in getting up and running.
There’s a little piece of me that wonders if the recent judicial system failures to hold Trump accountable in a timely and competent manner (e.g., Aileen Cannon) is resulting in more voters paying attention and realizing it really is going to be up to them to stop Trump.
It's why I talk about how we should never have waited for Mueller, and we cannot now wait for Garland, Jack Smith or anyone else. We have enough to beat him - my six things list - and just need to go out and do it.
Sorry for the grammar error in that first sentence.
And, yes, plus another reason to elect Biden is to avoid more Trump-appointed judges who are unqualified and/or extreme in their ideology. (I believe we have many qualified, conservative judges—that’s different.)
Start my day with Hopium before I go to write postcards and run my postcarding hub. Thank you for the always brilliant interpretation and consolidation of relevant FACTS.
He had written that Thom wanted to interview Simon. Thom's got a loyal audience and does a decent job, though I don't agree with some of his ideas, he is on the right side and he does have listeners. I think it would be an interesting interview; Thom does his homework. Last I heard he had the largest audience of any progressive on radio, but that, sadly, is a very small club.
I'm writing & mailing postcards now too - and plan to do that until the polls are all closed in November. Hopium is the best place in the universe for soothing my janky nerves!
That's great news about Ottawa County, Michigan! I'm from there. The news has been surreal in the last couple of years, and the citizens are getting fed up with the recent hostile takeover.
I am also an Ottawa person - I have spent 60 summers outside of Holland. I think the place is like Kansas, the crazies are wearing everyone out (with fights over basically nothing). To add to Simon’s characterization about how amazing this victory is… Holland/Ottawa is the home to Betsy DeVos and Erik Prince (and many other political nut jobs). It’s also a beautiful, wonderful, friendly place. One change that is not well known outside of Western MIchigan is that covid brought a ton of people from Chicago to the area (because it really fantastic) and its become steadily more progressive over time. It’s one of the reasons I’m personally optimistic about Michigan.
I am trying to understand the disconnect between the high percentage of Haley voters in primaries even though Trump retains 85-95% of Republicans in even Biden favorable polls. The demographics indicate that the Haley voters are not Democrats but are Republicans or maybe GOP-leaning independents. For instance,Trump actually does better in more Democratic areas.Is it just that primary voters are a special subset of a much larger general election voting population or is there a polling problem?
In my view it shows a fundamental problem with current polling. Pollsters have very very low response rates, that leads to poor samples. They try to overcome this by weighting their results but then that just brings their bias into the mix and we get polls that don’t mesh with actual voting results.
First...thanks for the update on Maryland's Senate race. I had not seen any news on that and I am glad it is looking good. Second, for Pete's sake....Why can't Paul Ryan say..."I am not voting for Trump and I am voting for Biden"? It's really not that hard. Former Lt. Governor of GA, Jeff Duncan did.
In that Fox segment, the three (3) people of Foxy Friends, er., Fox and Friends were just squirming uncomfortably, particularly the woman and the man (not Doocy) on the right side of the screen. The facts which showed Biden’s accomplishment and also highlighted a failure of the Trump administration seemed to almost make them physically sick. That was good and somewhat surprising that they actually reported factually on something that did not praise the GOP or their preferred candidate, Trump.
Yes, polling averages should be discounted, because one outlier poll throws the average off until it drops off, for instance, most polls now have Biden leading, but because of a couple of outlier polls, the polling averages still have Trump leading.
Was just listening to Josh Marshall over at TPM and he did say a lot of the state polls are just garbage, and there are reputable pollsters known for each state but they aren't hearing a lot from them yet ( think Ann Seltzer of IA ) and also that a number of polls are of all adults, making them useless; the disconnect between all adults, RV and LVs is significant, he mentioned the Ipsos poll IIRC.
3 of the big state polls have been by WSJ - Murdoch, Fox - Murdoch, and the Hill, right leaning. We just dont have a lot of good polling in the states, and independent polls like CBS or these others I cite are showing us doing much better. Trump is not leading or favored in this election.
I’m happy to know that Biden is doing much better in the polls and I always appreciate your good news. What worries me is whether it will matter. If Trump claims victory for himself if Biden wins (and we know he will) and if his army of thugs will enforce his words with another, much worse January 6 type insurrection (which we know they will), will we be prepared for this? Who is making plans to prevent and/or quell the horrors that are sure to occur? I can’t see how this will end well. Please help me!
All justified concerns, JoAnne! I’m certain J6 was enough of a wake-up call for the government that plans are being made to ensure the military will prevent trump’s minions from trying anything this time around. However, all the more reason to insure the vote/ electoral college vote is 55% or better for Biden and the whole Democratic ticket. The bigger the beating trump takes at the polls the less chance of another coup attempt.
Yes, it's why we have to work so hard. If we win this election decisively gets much harder for MAGA BS to matter. Just have to keep our heads down and worry about the stuff that is in our control.
Exactly- if it comes down to the results from a single state, it’s going to be tough. That’s why Biden needs to win AZ and NV and WI and MI and PA and GA and NC…a decisive victory that doesn’t hinge on any single state is pretty hard to overturn by force or cheating.
I am choosing to look at the CBS News polls of MI, PA, WI which show the race even. Muhlenberg was 400 interviews - silly. And AARP was conducted by Trump's pollster. CBS were large sample polls, over 1200 interviews. Live there, and live with Josh Shapiro winning by 10+, Fetterman by 5 and Casey should win by 5+. As I've been writing our strength in these Senate races underneath Biden really matters.
I am not following you here. Neither Shapiro nor Fetterman are on the ballot in 2024. Is there polling on them? Or is it pollster shorthand that I am missing?
He’s referring to their victory margins in 2022, which is an indication of overall D strength in organizing & enthusiasm considering that we should have been facing a “mid term drop off” headwind
I live in Montgomery County just north of Philly. I can't offer a data-driven response Ed, but I can offer a "feels" take, fwiw. It feels to me like Trump's brand has soured for Repubs living in the professional middle class burbs. Meaning I don't see any Trump yard signs, and I noted that Nikki Haley got something like 24% of the GOP primary vote in Montgomery County. I also visited friends 2 weeks ago in Clarks' Summit, near Scranton. Again, barely saw any Trump signs, and that's getting up into the redder part of the state. The fact that Biden got more votes than Trump in our closed primary, and that Dems outvoted Rs when one might expect the party out of power to be the one to be more revved up for the primary also "feels" like there's just something soft and faltering about MAGA in Pennsylvania. Now that might be wishful thinking. I possess no supernatural powers. But this feels intensely different than the vibe in 2016. The Trump fever was everywhere in rural PA, and it was pretty strong in the exurbs too. I campaigned my butt off for HRC, and I do believe the Comey announcement was the thing that cost her the state, but my point is that the reason it was that close to begin with was this massive energy for Trump that was characterized by very public displays. That's just not happening in the parts of PA I've been in of late. I can't speak for deep red rural PA, but I just think a lotta folks ain't buying Trump. I also have a feeling Biden may do better than expected with senior citizens in PA. If any of this has added to your hope bank, I'm happy. Onward!
@ Accidental. Most senior citizens are now boomers. I'm originally from Pennsyltucky. I don't think Boomers are as racist as my generation. My brother and I represented the class statewide in the early 70s busing cases. We also had a strike that anticipated the 1970 law that gave bargaining rights to public employees. White flight. Graduated from HS in 61. Only a few men left. Many former Republican women are now anti Trumpers.
I have a plan that could flip the Amish vote. 200,000 nationally. 80,000 in Pa. Although I am a "DNC Social Ambassador" and I'm in a DNC veteran's group and I kvetch, I hear crickets from the Biden administration. Takes diplomacy. The county chair from my home town, others have tried to help with no success.
The DNC is putting together a veteran's task force. Many who voted for Trump X 2 are flippable. "Not suckers or losers" drives them nuts. https://votevets.org/record-a-video
Simon, fantastic piece! Showing the solid economic foundation building Biden is doing in Wisconsin compared to that film flam hocus pocus of the empty Walker-Trump years is golden! Very useful for passing on.
Plus your steady diet of reliable polls and your educating us regarding polls in general is a cool tonic to those with fevered minds this election season. Thank you for all the effort you are putting into doing these.
Brilliant
Thanks, Simon. Keep it coming.
RCP averages have always stressed me out. Their interactive map is fun to play with which drives RCP poll engagement. Looking forward to the averages being debunked
RCP is "Fair and Balanced" – balanced between Trump’s view and the GOP’s view.
Great info, Simon as always. Glad to see Biden in WI. yesterday and, of course, the poll results. Interesting how the investments Biden is making in certain manufacturing involves enough money to pull in private investment instead of, as in the FoxComm situation, put a greater onus on taxpayers. Also the training program at the local college is a wise investment. I take it these are 1 or 2-year programs not 4 years. In Arizona at the new TSMC semiconductor plant they are building (incentivized by Biden's CHIPs program) , there is a concern about there not, at this point, sufficient workers who can do the work that will be necessary. Important a community college or training school be implemented there by the time the plant is completed.
The issue of whether we will have enough trained workers to be able to execute against these opportunities and investments is something I will come back to soon. It's a good problem to have, and states are going to have to really step up and do their party as the community college and technical ed system in the US is so decentralized. It's also another reason we need to fix our immigration system and keep the right number of workers flowing in. All of this is why Trump's plans to deport the 11m undocumented immigrants already here, and curtain future legal immigration would be devastating for our economy and future growth. It would be a gift to Russia, China and our adversaries.
Yes I figured this worker training need must be addressed in states and localities. When BMW went to Greenville, or Greer, SC specifically in the 90's they invested in some community colleges in the area and have programs where they paid for the training. From all accounts, workers there have been very happy with their training and their earnings.
Community colleges are a deeply underappreciated part of the American economic engine.....
As are the staff that teaches in them; many are part time HS teachers or adjuncts trying to eke out a living going from school to school and being paid by the course. Getting a full time gig in higher education should not be harder than a Hollywood audition. Any investment in community colleges must involve decently paid full time instructors with full benefits. It's the right thing to do. A friend taught 40 years at a county college as an adjunct and was never once offered a full time gig, though he was least employed full time there as a media specialist. Many at the college were in the same boat.
Pension avoidance is what I understand from Union leader at a local school. Or medical coverage avoidance or a combination of both.
Right! Very true.
I think some of the complaints by TSCM about not being able to find enough skilled workers in Arizona was in part linked to their negotiating strategy to get more funding from the US government. Once they were awarded I believe $8 billion to build the factory in Arizona they went from saying that there would years upon years of delays until late 2020s to build the new facilities to then saying they would be able to complete construction ahead of schedule by the end of this year.
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/tsmc-updates-arizona-fab-production-timeline-signs-semiconductor-talent-agreement-with-kyushu-university/
So they were using the talking point as part of a leverage strategy. Very interesting. My main concern, particularly when it comes to climate change infrastructure projects, as distinct from these CHIPs manufacturers, there be no delay in getting up and running.
There’s a little piece of me that wonders if the recent judicial system failures to hold Trump accountable in a timely and competent manner (e.g., Aileen Cannon) is resulting in more voters paying attention and realizing it really is going to be up to them to stop Trump.
It's why I talk about how we should never have waited for Mueller, and we cannot now wait for Garland, Jack Smith or anyone else. We have enough to beat him - my six things list - and just need to go out and do it.
Sorry for the grammar error in that first sentence.
And, yes, plus another reason to elect Biden is to avoid more Trump-appointed judges who are unqualified and/or extreme in their ideology. (I believe we have many qualified, conservative judges—that’s different.)
Right on
Left on!
Start my day with Hopium before I go to write postcards and run my postcarding hub. Thank you for the always brilliant interpretation and consolidation of relevant FACTS.
Simon -- Thom Hartmann?
What about Thom Hartmann?
He had written that Thom wanted to interview Simon. Thom's got a loyal audience and does a decent job, though I don't agree with some of his ideas, he is on the right side and he does have listeners. I think it would be an interesting interview; Thom does his homework. Last I heard he had the largest audience of any progressive on radio, but that, sadly, is a very small club.
Thom Hartmann is awesome. I have listened to him for years.
I am so here for all of this. I have 100 postcards to write next week.
I'm writing & mailing postcards now too - and plan to do that until the polls are all closed in November. Hopium is the best place in the universe for soothing my janky nerves!
That's great news about Ottawa County, Michigan! I'm from there. The news has been surreal in the last couple of years, and the citizens are getting fed up with the recent hostile takeover.
I am also an Ottawa person - I have spent 60 summers outside of Holland. I think the place is like Kansas, the crazies are wearing everyone out (with fights over basically nothing). To add to Simon’s characterization about how amazing this victory is… Holland/Ottawa is the home to Betsy DeVos and Erik Prince (and many other political nut jobs). It’s also a beautiful, wonderful, friendly place. One change that is not well known outside of Western MIchigan is that covid brought a ton of people from Chicago to the area (because it really fantastic) and its become steadily more progressive over time. It’s one of the reasons I’m personally optimistic about Michigan.
I held hearings in Amywayville, a/k/.a Grand Rapids, several times. Booming. courtesy of government investment.
I am trying to understand the disconnect between the high percentage of Haley voters in primaries even though Trump retains 85-95% of Republicans in even Biden favorable polls. The demographics indicate that the Haley voters are not Democrats but are Republicans or maybe GOP-leaning independents. For instance,Trump actually does better in more Democratic areas.Is it just that primary voters are a special subset of a much larger general election voting population or is there a polling problem?
Really excellent piece, by the way.
In my view it shows a fundamental problem with current polling. Pollsters have very very low response rates, that leads to poor samples. They try to overcome this by weighting their results but then that just brings their bias into the mix and we get polls that don’t mesh with actual voting results.
That might also explain results like NY-03 where polling said Suozzi would win by 3 or 4 and he won by 8.
3 to 4 points for him to win I the best poll some showed a point or 2 lead for the Democrat in the NY3
First...thanks for the update on Maryland's Senate race. I had not seen any news on that and I am glad it is looking good. Second, for Pete's sake....Why can't Paul Ryan say..."I am not voting for Trump and I am voting for Biden"? It's really not that hard. Former Lt. Governor of GA, Jeff Duncan did.
In that Fox segment, the three (3) people of Foxy Friends, er., Fox and Friends were just squirming uncomfortably, particularly the woman and the man (not Doocy) on the right side of the screen. The facts which showed Biden’s accomplishment and also highlighted a failure of the Trump administration seemed to almost make them physically sick. That was good and somewhat surprising that they actually reported factually on something that did not praise the GOP or their preferred candidate, Trump.
Yes, polling averages should be discounted, because one outlier poll throws the average off until it drops off, for instance, most polls now have Biden leading, but because of a couple of outlier polls, the polling averages still have Trump leading.
Was just listening to Josh Marshall over at TPM and he did say a lot of the state polls are just garbage, and there are reputable pollsters known for each state but they aren't hearing a lot from them yet ( think Ann Seltzer of IA ) and also that a number of polls are of all adults, making them useless; the disconnect between all adults, RV and LVs is significant, he mentioned the Ipsos poll IIRC.
3 of the big state polls have been by WSJ - Murdoch, Fox - Murdoch, and the Hill, right leaning. We just dont have a lot of good polling in the states, and independent polls like CBS or these others I cite are showing us doing much better. Trump is not leading or favored in this election.
I’m happy to know that Biden is doing much better in the polls and I always appreciate your good news. What worries me is whether it will matter. If Trump claims victory for himself if Biden wins (and we know he will) and if his army of thugs will enforce his words with another, much worse January 6 type insurrection (which we know they will), will we be prepared for this? Who is making plans to prevent and/or quell the horrors that are sure to occur? I can’t see how this will end well. Please help me!
JoAnne
All justified concerns, JoAnne! I’m certain J6 was enough of a wake-up call for the government that plans are being made to ensure the military will prevent trump’s minions from trying anything this time around. However, all the more reason to insure the vote/ electoral college vote is 55% or better for Biden and the whole Democratic ticket. The bigger the beating trump takes at the polls the less chance of another coup attempt.
Yes, it's why we have to work so hard. If we win this election decisively gets much harder for MAGA BS to matter. Just have to keep our heads down and worry about the stuff that is in our control.
Exactly- if it comes down to the results from a single state, it’s going to be tough. That’s why Biden needs to win AZ and NV and WI and MI and PA and GA and NC…a decisive victory that doesn’t hinge on any single state is pretty hard to overturn by force or cheating.
Could I get some Pennsylvania hopium?
I am choosing to look at the CBS News polls of MI, PA, WI which show the race even. Muhlenberg was 400 interviews - silly. And AARP was conducted by Trump's pollster. CBS were large sample polls, over 1200 interviews. Live there, and live with Josh Shapiro winning by 10+, Fetterman by 5 and Casey should win by 5+. As I've been writing our strength in these Senate races underneath Biden really matters.
I am not following you here. Neither Shapiro nor Fetterman are on the ballot in 2024. Is there polling on them? Or is it pollster shorthand that I am missing?
He’s referring to their victory margins in 2022, which is an indication of overall D strength in organizing & enthusiasm considering that we should have been facing a “mid term drop off” headwind
Thank you gif! I’ve long seen it’s really a bulwark but I like home hopehelp.
I live in Montgomery County just north of Philly. I can't offer a data-driven response Ed, but I can offer a "feels" take, fwiw. It feels to me like Trump's brand has soured for Repubs living in the professional middle class burbs. Meaning I don't see any Trump yard signs, and I noted that Nikki Haley got something like 24% of the GOP primary vote in Montgomery County. I also visited friends 2 weeks ago in Clarks' Summit, near Scranton. Again, barely saw any Trump signs, and that's getting up into the redder part of the state. The fact that Biden got more votes than Trump in our closed primary, and that Dems outvoted Rs when one might expect the party out of power to be the one to be more revved up for the primary also "feels" like there's just something soft and faltering about MAGA in Pennsylvania. Now that might be wishful thinking. I possess no supernatural powers. But this feels intensely different than the vibe in 2016. The Trump fever was everywhere in rural PA, and it was pretty strong in the exurbs too. I campaigned my butt off for HRC, and I do believe the Comey announcement was the thing that cost her the state, but my point is that the reason it was that close to begin with was this massive energy for Trump that was characterized by very public displays. That's just not happening in the parts of PA I've been in of late. I can't speak for deep red rural PA, but I just think a lotta folks ain't buying Trump. I also have a feeling Biden may do better than expected with senior citizens in PA. If any of this has added to your hope bank, I'm happy. Onward!
@ Accidental. Most senior citizens are now boomers. I'm originally from Pennsyltucky. I don't think Boomers are as racist as my generation. My brother and I represented the class statewide in the early 70s busing cases. We also had a strike that anticipated the 1970 law that gave bargaining rights to public employees. White flight. Graduated from HS in 61. Only a few men left. Many former Republican women are now anti Trumpers.
I have a plan that could flip the Amish vote. 200,000 nationally. 80,000 in Pa. Although I am a "DNC Social Ambassador" and I'm in a DNC veteran's group and I kvetch, I hear crickets from the Biden administration. Takes diplomacy. The county chair from my home town, others have tried to help with no success.
The DNC is putting together a veteran's task force. Many who voted for Trump X 2 are flippable. "Not suckers or losers" drives them nuts. https://votevets.org/record-a-video
This will carry me to June!
Simon, fantastic piece! Showing the solid economic foundation building Biden is doing in Wisconsin compared to that film flam hocus pocus of the empty Walker-Trump years is golden! Very useful for passing on.
Plus your steady diet of reliable polls and your educating us regarding polls in general is a cool tonic to those with fevered minds this election season. Thank you for all the effort you are putting into doing these.