Well, Joe Trippi had said the good economic news would lag. So far he is right. I just can't see a case for trump if I'm an indie. And that's probably the ball game. The cult and reflexive Rs in red states who think we are all communists aren't gonna change, so let's get the indies on board. I don't think the polling has captured things right, but they keep showing Biden with some strength with seniors. If that's the case, he will win. Those people vote.
There never was gloom in my view. If there was we never would have won all these elections the last few years. Remember we won in 2022 with inflation far higher than it is today - today it is zero btw - in part because only a small percentage of the population really saw the huge spike in inflation and that is those who drove gas cars long distances - rural, exurban GOP leaning voters. The rest of inflation outside of gas has run below wage and wealth increases. "The pain" has been wildly exaggerated, and as I keep writing and showing you here voters are very upbeat about their own finances and what's happening in their community. The "pain" to me has been a red wavy construct thrown at us by the right and far too often amplified by people on our side. We can treat our fellow citizens like the adults they are - things are much better, the economy is booming, jobs are plentiful etc and inflation, which was caused largely by COVID and Russia has come way down and was zero last month. All of that is true, and we cannot be bullied by the "lived experience" argument to take ourselves into a place of untruth about the economy and the success of the Biden Presidency.
But I work in retail and it seems like a lot and I mean a lot more people see a large part of the problem was greedflation not inflation. I see in person and online more and more people thinking it was the large corporations making outsize profits which they are at our expense.
This crazy story out of the Arizona GOP suggests that they may be starting to eat their own even before the election. I don't think this kind of chaos and insanity can be helpful in Arizona or anywhere else. https://wapo.st/3zhJh5O
Perhaps some of Trump’s recent policy proposals, such as automatically granting Green Cards for immigrants who earn any college degree, isn’t equally popular with all Fascists.
I am writing letters to PA voters, with steady cadence planned throughout the election. We must win!!! Converting my anxiety into action because the alternative is unacceptable.
Hi Shmoobly, I’ve been writing with Postcards To Swing States and PA is included.The postacrds are FREE have beautiful designs. You do have to commit to 200 although you don’t have to mail them until October.✍️
Simon - give us a list of worthy causes that are tax-exempt organizations so that those of us over 73 can donate from our IRAs and reduce our taxable income - thanks - Neil
On their face, the recent polling numbers are good news for Biden. But in truth, the polls are terrible news for Trump.
Both the 538 poll average and the NYTimes/Sienna poll are overweighted with MAGA respondents. So, if Trump's support is declining among MAGA voters, Biden's lead in polls conducted with a more balanced responent group might be 4%-5%. Effectively the margin Biden defeated Trump by in 2020.
Further proof of the Biden's gains can be seen in the increasing attacks on his mental competency by the MAGA swamp.
While I'm hopeful on the error in this election, I'm more clear-eyed about the error in the last one. While we don't know how the error was distributed throughout the year, the "five point lead" Biden "steadily held" in 2020 was, we can now assume, a mirage. The preference in that election may well have been tied until September when Biden pulled away, just as they appear to be (pending any error) this time.
My guess: most elections are "tied" in the polls for most of the race if you didn't have error. That's what a 40-40 tie implies - the partisans are with their candidates, and the undecided don't decide until after Labor Day.
That's kind of my point on distribution, though. At about this point in that race the 538 average expanded to a 10-point lead for Biden. He was ahead by 8.4 on election eve. If you assume that 3.7-point overestimate was consistent (I'm sure it wasn't) then his lead was more like 2 points at the beginning of June and at many points in the spring. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/
I hadn't remembered that Biden started growing his lead now, rather than in September (I was confusing this with other stuff). Certainly reinforces your point on June being important :)
The other question that bugs me: I can run off the reasons why we think polls are off in Trump's favor: polling Hispanic voters in English only, overcounting non-voters, overcounting rurals, etc. Were there signs we missed in 2020 that the polls were off the other way? I can remember a lot of discourse based on 2016 and "if it happens that way again...", but not a lot of actual analysis.
FWIW (no idea if it means anything), 538 actually nailed Biden's number at 51-52% but underestimated Trump's. All the error was there.
While Republicans do absolutely nothing to prevent school massacres, guns will of course be forbidden inside the Republican National Convention. Not only that, Trump & Co clearly have an extreme fear of protesters – which is why a huge swathe of downtown Milwaukee will be severely restricted. Take a look at the maps!
It remains sad to me that we are measuring any candidacy by fundraising numbers. How pathetic that is the grade along with the popularity polls. The money insanity needs to change, the length of time “to run” makes everyone hate it even more. How do we get to content...get everyone to content.
I’m writing postcards through Activate America. They are extremely organized and focused on certain messages for certain campaigns. Your contribution is the cost of the postcard and postage, they provide the names and the message. The message is coordinated with the campaign.
Yes Melissa, Activate America is great, they have some good overlap with the House races that Simon is advocating for! Just finished 20 cards today, 10 to AZ and 10 to NY-19. More to go, we've done hundreds. So excited to keep it up, it's time to pour it on!! Go Team!
That's the million dollar question that some pollsters are struggling with, so my understanding is they are overweighting R voters. But they could just as well be underweighting Biden voters at the same time. Be that as it may, I am sorry that states like OH, IA and FL are not swingy anymore; it makes our path harder, and we already know PA and the upper midwest can't be trusted; it's just too close in those states. It's a lot of work to defend a great president, all because there is this loud R media presence on some 1500 radio stations, numerous Spanish stations now, and several TV "news" networks, and the bots on social media. They have all that, though, and they still can't sway everyone, because their ideas and their candidates suck. I mean, even W couldn't win the upper midwest, and he was way more popular than trump. I'd argue that he was just as incompetent, and evil in a stupid way. Nah, I can't really say anything good about him, either. But we had MI, WI, and PA in the bag with him, though somewhat close; we've picked up CO and NM more solidly, and NV had been ok but has been looking shakey lately. AZ and GA were a surprise, I would have picked NC to flip back first. If we can outperform the polls just a bit we can have NV and AZ and NC; GA looks a bit out of reach, but we'll see. Just thinking out loud. I have been using the info here and spreading it far and wide; amazing how many people have no idea about the Dems and the economy, though Molly Jong Fast had a guy on who was less impressed with that, indicating he thought it was at least a little bit of timing ( i.e republicans had screwed up so bad the Dems couldn't help but improve things ). But that's inside baseball; all you need for your coworkers and your uncle who hates both sides is some of the charts here. As for your MAGA uncle, grab a stick and roast a marshmallow this 4th and sit at the opposite end of the fire pit....that's what I'll be doing, when I'm not sitting far away at the dock drowning worms.....because that dude is a lost cause. I'll be sending a check to the Dem in NJ 7.
Trump's name has actually been on the ballot for dozens of state-level primary elections this spring. He's been consistently underperforming throughout.
Since alot of people have amnesia about the economy under Trump, I think the campaign needs to advertise on TV and radio how trump inherited Obama's economy and covid crashed the economy and and then trump mismanaged it
in my reading of it, ppl want to forget covid, especially 2020, especially pre-vaccine, not just the fear, but the pain of watching loved ones not protecting themselves and their children, endangering others, the endless parade of funerals, bitter differences. I don't blame anyone for wanting to forget, but the T campaign should not have free rein to rewrite the history.
Friends, since this post went out 5 hours ago the Hopium community has contributed more than $50,000 to our making June count candidates and state parties. It's incredible. Honestly I don't know what to say other than thank you all. You are amazing, inspiring. Every day I am proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
Awesome! Clearly the donations, the hard-hitting and intelligent campaign messaging, the postcarding and voter registration efforts, are having a measurable positive effect. Just look at the latest figures from 538!
Their latest model shows Biden winning 51% of 538’s simulations, with Trump at 48%. (Tied EV result is less than 1%.) Also, Biden is ahead a modest 0.3% lead in 538’s national polling average, which is weighted in favor of quality polls.
I am really looking forward to the release of new quality polls from the swing states. When these come in, I believe Biden will open up a much-more-significant lead!
Also a powerful factor: The mainstream media is finally starting to pay attention to Trump’s increasingly-obvious cognitive decline. Rational Republicans and Independent voters are fleeing the cult leader and his cult followers.
Thank you for being so informed and these important facts. When I feel panicked about the elections in November I read Hopium and feel more grounded. I live in the district Lauren Boebert moved to🤬. I am working to help a democratic candidate (Ike McCorkle) that stands a good chance of beating her in the November election. She currently has the most funding in the race because she is of course for sale not for her constituents. Turning this seat blue won't be easy, but I really don't want her as my congessinal representative!
If you get a chance, check out the recent Republican primary debate for that district hosted by Kyle Clark. I think it’s available on YouTube. It’s 🤌🤌 the way he handles the GQP ne’er-do-wells! (Ps I grew up in Boebert’s current district. Haven’t lived there since ‘97, but I had such hopes they’d vote her out in ‘22!)
Thank you. I was contributing to to her opponent in the 3rd to get rid of her in general. I saw Kyle Clark's debate and it was very telling. She even attacked him when he called her out on her behavior claiming he caused a very private moment to be on display or something to that effect. So now she is signed up with Matt Gatez' wife to host a drunken bikini event. 🤔
I tried to post your last great substack to Facebook yesterday but the Facebook police accused me of trying to spread spam. I challenged them and they will investigate. What did I do wrong?
I’m curious what the Hopium community thinks about Trump talking with such clarity and confidence about not needing any more votes but tells his followers, at his pitch today, to focus on stopping the steal..some I follow and trust are concerned about this. What are the Rs plans?🤔 I believe he knows he doesn’t have the numbers to win🤨Also I’ve been a little successful at getting a few well connected friends aware of and a couple to sign on to Hopium
This bluster may also signal that their fight will not be at the ballot box, where I believe Trump & Co feel he is doomed to lose. Instead, I expect their primary fight will be anti-democratic:
– trying to prevent certification at various levels,
– a social media and news media campaign of lies,
– incitement to violence,
– efforts to bribe and blackmail actual Electoral College votes, and
– shenanigans during certification of Biden’s victory by Congress.
This is why we need an overwhelming Democratic victory up and down the ballot – and this is why we want Biden-Harris to get to 55%.
Well, Joe Trippi had said the good economic news would lag. So far he is right. I just can't see a case for trump if I'm an indie. And that's probably the ball game. The cult and reflexive Rs in red states who think we are all communists aren't gonna change, so let's get the indies on board. I don't think the polling has captured things right, but they keep showing Biden with some strength with seniors. If that's the case, he will win. Those people vote.
There never was gloom in my view. If there was we never would have won all these elections the last few years. Remember we won in 2022 with inflation far higher than it is today - today it is zero btw - in part because only a small percentage of the population really saw the huge spike in inflation and that is those who drove gas cars long distances - rural, exurban GOP leaning voters. The rest of inflation outside of gas has run below wage and wealth increases. "The pain" has been wildly exaggerated, and as I keep writing and showing you here voters are very upbeat about their own finances and what's happening in their community. The "pain" to me has been a red wavy construct thrown at us by the right and far too often amplified by people on our side. We can treat our fellow citizens like the adults they are - things are much better, the economy is booming, jobs are plentiful etc and inflation, which was caused largely by COVID and Russia has come way down and was zero last month. All of that is true, and we cannot be bullied by the "lived experience" argument to take ourselves into a place of untruth about the economy and the success of the Biden Presidency.
But I work in retail and it seems like a lot and I mean a lot more people see a large part of the problem was greedflation not inflation. I see in person and online more and more people thinking it was the large corporations making outsize profits which they are at our expense.
This crazy story out of the Arizona GOP suggests that they may be starting to eat their own even before the election. I don't think this kind of chaos and insanity can be helpful in Arizona or anywhere else. https://wapo.st/3zhJh5O
Perhaps some of Trump’s recent policy proposals, such as automatically granting Green Cards for immigrants who earn any college degree, isn’t equally popular with all Fascists.
Lots of great Hopium!
I am writing letters to PA voters, with steady cadence planned throughout the election. We must win!!! Converting my anxiety into action because the alternative is unacceptable.
Just did 50 BYOP FT6 WI texts and 1400 Text Arcade MI texts today.
FT6 has a weekly Florida phone banking program Thursdays from 2-4 Below is the link.
Lynn Bommer, the instructor, advises they have 40,000 phone numbers and they need volunteers. .
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/event/632594/
Madam G, do you have a link for PA postcard opportunities? Thanks!
Hi Shmoobly, I’ve been writing with Postcards To Swing States and PA is included.The postacrds are FREE have beautiful designs. You do have to commit to 200 although you don’t have to mail them until October.✍️
https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/
Actually writing letters through Vote Forward
Simon - give us a list of worthy causes that are tax-exempt organizations so that those of us over 73 can donate from our IRAs and reduce our taxable income - thanks - Neil
Not Simon obviously but www.movement.vote moves money to c3 orgs in swing states doing voter work
On their face, the recent polling numbers are good news for Biden. But in truth, the polls are terrible news for Trump.
Both the 538 poll average and the NYTimes/Sienna poll are overweighted with MAGA respondents. So, if Trump's support is declining among MAGA voters, Biden's lead in polls conducted with a more balanced responent group might be 4%-5%. Effectively the margin Biden defeated Trump by in 2020.
Further proof of the Biden's gains can be seen in the increasing attacks on his mental competency by the MAGA swamp.
Go Joe!!
👍👍
❣️💙❣️💙❣️💙❣️
While I'm hopeful on the error in this election, I'm more clear-eyed about the error in the last one. While we don't know how the error was distributed throughout the year, the "five point lead" Biden "steadily held" in 2020 was, we can now assume, a mirage. The preference in that election may well have been tied until September when Biden pulled away, just as they appear to be (pending any error) this time.
My guess: most elections are "tied" in the polls for most of the race if you didn't have error. That's what a 40-40 tie implies - the partisans are with their candidates, and the undecided don't decide until after Labor Day.
Biden won the last election by 4.5 points.
That's kind of my point on distribution, though. At about this point in that race the 538 average expanded to a 10-point lead for Biden. He was ahead by 8.4 on election eve. If you assume that 3.7-point overestimate was consistent (I'm sure it wasn't) then his lead was more like 2 points at the beginning of June and at many points in the spring. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/
I hadn't remembered that Biden started growing his lead now, rather than in September (I was confusing this with other stuff). Certainly reinforces your point on June being important :)
The other question that bugs me: I can run off the reasons why we think polls are off in Trump's favor: polling Hispanic voters in English only, overcounting non-voters, overcounting rurals, etc. Were there signs we missed in 2020 that the polls were off the other way? I can remember a lot of discourse based on 2016 and "if it happens that way again...", but not a lot of actual analysis.
FWIW (no idea if it means anything), 538 actually nailed Biden's number at 51-52% but underestimated Trump's. All the error was there.
While Republicans do absolutely nothing to prevent school massacres, guns will of course be forbidden inside the Republican National Convention. Not only that, Trump & Co clearly have an extreme fear of protesters – which is why a huge swathe of downtown Milwaukee will be severely restricted. Take a look at the maps!
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/22/rnc-guns-rule-milwaukee
I guess the maritime areas are to protect against sharks
While the RNC venue will be open to locution. Er, I mean conducive to electrocution.
😂
Walleye. They can be vicious.....
😂🐟
nice!
“…the perfect necktie for President Biden to wear when he debates Trump...”
🤣
https://x.com/joncoopertweets/status/1801087792258134474
It remains sad to me that we are measuring any candidacy by fundraising numbers. How pathetic that is the grade along with the popularity polls. The money insanity needs to change, the length of time “to run” makes everyone hate it even more. How do we get to content...get everyone to content.
I’m writing postcards through Activate America. They are extremely organized and focused on certain messages for certain campaigns. Your contribution is the cost of the postcard and postage, they provide the names and the message. The message is coordinated with the campaign.
Yes Melissa, Activate America is great, they have some good overlap with the House races that Simon is advocating for! Just finished 20 cards today, 10 to AZ and 10 to NY-19. More to go, we've done hundreds. So excited to keep it up, it's time to pour it on!! Go Team!
Regarding polling…how do you account for this is the first election since 2020 that Trump is actually on the ballot?
That's the million dollar question that some pollsters are struggling with, so my understanding is they are overweighting R voters. But they could just as well be underweighting Biden voters at the same time. Be that as it may, I am sorry that states like OH, IA and FL are not swingy anymore; it makes our path harder, and we already know PA and the upper midwest can't be trusted; it's just too close in those states. It's a lot of work to defend a great president, all because there is this loud R media presence on some 1500 radio stations, numerous Spanish stations now, and several TV "news" networks, and the bots on social media. They have all that, though, and they still can't sway everyone, because their ideas and their candidates suck. I mean, even W couldn't win the upper midwest, and he was way more popular than trump. I'd argue that he was just as incompetent, and evil in a stupid way. Nah, I can't really say anything good about him, either. But we had MI, WI, and PA in the bag with him, though somewhat close; we've picked up CO and NM more solidly, and NV had been ok but has been looking shakey lately. AZ and GA were a surprise, I would have picked NC to flip back first. If we can outperform the polls just a bit we can have NV and AZ and NC; GA looks a bit out of reach, but we'll see. Just thinking out loud. I have been using the info here and spreading it far and wide; amazing how many people have no idea about the Dems and the economy, though Molly Jong Fast had a guy on who was less impressed with that, indicating he thought it was at least a little bit of timing ( i.e republicans had screwed up so bad the Dems couldn't help but improve things ). But that's inside baseball; all you need for your coworkers and your uncle who hates both sides is some of the charts here. As for your MAGA uncle, grab a stick and roast a marshmallow this 4th and sit at the opposite end of the fire pit....that's what I'll be doing, when I'm not sitting far away at the dock drowning worms.....because that dude is a lost cause. I'll be sending a check to the Dem in NJ 7.
Trump's name has actually been on the ballot for dozens of state-level primary elections this spring. He's been consistently underperforming throughout.
Since alot of people have amnesia about the economy under Trump, I think the campaign needs to advertise on TV and radio how trump inherited Obama's economy and covid crashed the economy and and then trump mismanaged it
in my reading of it, ppl want to forget covid, especially 2020, especially pre-vaccine, not just the fear, but the pain of watching loved ones not protecting themselves and their children, endangering others, the endless parade of funerals, bitter differences. I don't blame anyone for wanting to forget, but the T campaign should not have free rein to rewrite the history.
The way you laid out everything here is so helpful. The import is what we need. Clarifying donation timing too.
Friends, since this post went out 5 hours ago the Hopium community has contributed more than $50,000 to our making June count candidates and state parties. It's incredible. Honestly I don't know what to say other than thank you all. You are amazing, inspiring. Every day I am proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
Thanks for reminding me. Just sent a donation.
Awesome! Clearly the donations, the hard-hitting and intelligent campaign messaging, the postcarding and voter registration efforts, are having a measurable positive effect. Just look at the latest figures from 538!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Their latest model shows Biden winning 51% of 538’s simulations, with Trump at 48%. (Tied EV result is less than 1%.) Also, Biden is ahead a modest 0.3% lead in 538’s national polling average, which is weighted in favor of quality polls.
I am really looking forward to the release of new quality polls from the swing states. When these come in, I believe Biden will open up a much-more-significant lead!
Also a powerful factor: The mainstream media is finally starting to pay attention to Trump’s increasingly-obvious cognitive decline. Rational Republicans and Independent voters are fleeing the cult leader and his cult followers.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/22/2248139/-The-Mainstream-Media-is-Catching-on-to-Trump-s-Cognitive-Decline-Finally
Thank you for being so informed and these important facts. When I feel panicked about the elections in November I read Hopium and feel more grounded. I live in the district Lauren Boebert moved to🤬. I am working to help a democratic candidate (Ike McCorkle) that stands a good chance of beating her in the November election. She currently has the most funding in the race because she is of course for sale not for her constituents. Turning this seat blue won't be easy, but I really don't want her as my congessinal representative!
If you get a chance, check out the recent Republican primary debate for that district hosted by Kyle Clark. I think it’s available on YouTube. It’s 🤌🤌 the way he handles the GQP ne’er-do-wells! (Ps I grew up in Boebert’s current district. Haven’t lived there since ‘97, but I had such hopes they’d vote her out in ‘22!)
Thank you. I was contributing to to her opponent in the 3rd to get rid of her in general. I saw Kyle Clark's debate and it was very telling. She even attacked him when he called her out on her behavior claiming he caused a very private moment to be on display or something to that effect. So now she is signed up with Matt Gatez' wife to host a drunken bikini event. 🤔
I tried to post your last great substack to Facebook yesterday but the Facebook police accused me of trying to spread spam. I challenged them and they will investigate. What did I do wrong?
I don't know, but I would like to! Let me know if you get an explanation. This is not good.
I’m curious what the Hopium community thinks about Trump talking with such clarity and confidence about not needing any more votes but tells his followers, at his pitch today, to focus on stopping the steal..some I follow and trust are concerned about this. What are the Rs plans?🤔 I believe he knows he doesn’t have the numbers to win🤨Also I’ve been a little successful at getting a few well connected friends aware of and a couple to sign on to Hopium
I'd say it's bluster, trying to look powerful when in reality he's weak. It's the same phrasing he used to say he was rich, didn't need donations.
same phrasing and same inflection iirc
This bluster may also signal that their fight will not be at the ballot box, where I believe Trump & Co feel he is doomed to lose. Instead, I expect their primary fight will be anti-democratic:
– trying to prevent certification at various levels,
– a social media and news media campaign of lies,
– incitement to violence,
– efforts to bribe and blackmail actual Electoral College votes, and
– shenanigans during certification of Biden’s victory by Congress.
This is why we need an overwhelming Democratic victory up and down the ballot – and this is why we want Biden-Harris to get to 55%.
I think they want us to worry about that and be afraid. Luckily we have our 'worry less and do more'
As Lawerence O'Donnell pointed out during the trial, T couldn't even get more than a handful of ppl to stand outside the courthouse