Biden's Polling Gains Matter, A Very Big Week Coming Up, Making June Count!!!!

Tuesday, 730pm ET - Our Monthly Hopium Gathering - Register Today!

Happy Saturday all. I often think of Hopium as an “import” letter and not a “news” letter, as I try to send you what I think is most important each day not necessarily what is “new” or “news.” So in that spirit I send along just a few key things as we get ready for a very big political week, one that could dramatically impact the 2024 election - Monday’s anniversary of the Dobbs decision, more Supreme Court decisions and Thursday’s all important debate.

A reminder that June 30th is a very critical filing deadline for all candidates and party committees. As the next big filing is not until October, this one really matters as it will tell us a great deal about the relative strengths of the two parties and their candidates. What this means is that if you are planning to give to a candidate or party committee this summer do it before June 30th. Part of how we make June count is by giving as much as we can before the end of this crucial month, providing our candidates and committees the resources they need to get loud this summer and win their elections. Money now is more important than money after Labor Day. So do what you can, and help our endorsed candidates and committees or other ones that matter to you. Whatever you do, let’s stretch a bit together in these last 9 days of June, and make June really count.

On 538 Biden Now Leads In The National Popular Vote and in Michigan and Wisconsin - As we’ve been discussing this week the election is changing now and President Biden has been gaining in a wide variety of polls. Here’s where the 538 averages now stand:

National Popular Vote - Biden leads by 0.3. This is a 2.7 pt gain since early March.

Battleground states -

• Blue Wall - Biden leads in MI by 0.4 and WI by 0.3, and trails in PA by 0.4

• Southwest - Biden trails by 2.8 in AZ and 3.0 in NV

• South - Biden trails by 4.6 in GA and 5.6 in NC

• Blue Dot - very limited polling, but we are favored here

Here’s how I interpret all this data. First, as there continues to be a great deal of GOP aligned polling in 538’s averages I think the actual state of the race is 1-2 points more Democratic than what we see here, maybe more. I know that some argue that there is a hidden Trump vote out there, but Trump and Republicans have been underperforming polls since Dobbs not overperforming them. So while it is possible that Trump overperforms polling again in November, it is not what’s been happening over the past 2 years, and not what happened in the Republican primaries where Trump repeatedly underperformed public polling. As I’ve written the trend in polling since Dobbs has to be overestimate MAGA support, not underestimate it, and I think that the dynamic which has produced these results is likely to continue through November (a reminder that according to 538 the average polling miss over the past 24 years of polling has been 6 points!!!!!).

Given all that I am pleased with where we are now. The election is getting bluer. Trump’s leads in the national vote and in the battlegrounds have evaporated. Biden has encouraging momentum now, and if we start to see consistent leads in the three blue wall states we will become, to use the term Fox News used in their election analysis this week, the frontrunner. 538’s election forecast currently has Biden winning MI/PA/WI and NE-2, getting to 270 Electoral College votes and winning the election.

It is important to look at the battleground the way I have it above, and not as 7 states (or 8 with NE-2). It’s a race to 270 not a race to win those 7 states; and if we win MI/PA/WI and NE-2 we win. We don’t need to win those other states. But I think we can win those other states and I assume folks are a bit surprised how close AZ and NV are in these averages given recent coverage. They are true toss ups now in these averages - Rs are not favored. Our “checkmate” strategy I discuss below focuses our work on three states where I think we have the best chance to getting us to 270 beyond MI/PA/WI - AZ, NC and the NE-2. If we win the three blue wall states and any one of the others we win the election, “checkmate” as I call it. Regardless of where the polling is now in these non-blue wall states I think the extremism of Kari Lake in AZ and Mark Robinson and the entire GOP ticket in NC are going to make it possible to have very strong elections in each state - as we did against the extremists the GOP ran throughout the battlegrounds in 2022. That’s why in addition to supporting Biden-Harris - as we all must - I am recommending that we make our big push in AZ, NC and NE-2. Check is winning MI, PA and WI. Checkmate is winning any one of AZ, NC, NE-2 or GA and NV.

We should interpret the Trump campaign’s attempt to put MN and VA into play as a sign of desperation, as the only reason they would need to expand the map was if the current map is not working for them - which I don’t think it is. Us fighting for NC, which was lost by just 1 point last time, makes strategic sense. Them fighting for MN and VA which we won last time by 7 points doesn’t and is a sign of desperation.

So as we head into a very consequential week in the 2024 election we should be feeling good. Biden is in a much stronger position than he was a few weeks or few months ago. We still have more money than the Republicans, and a far better campaign apparatus and national political machine. The news on the economy, gas prices, the border and on crime has been very good for us in recent weeks. Trump’s crimes have become a material part of the election now, and it is hurting him, as it should. The Biden campaign has put a lot of money into communicating these crimes and the rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon narrative to voters in the battlegrounds, which is likely to push them further away from Trump in the coming weeks.

As we head into this consequential week it is likely much will change, we will have good days and bad days, and boy oh boy do we have a lot of work to do, but in every way imaginable I much rather be us than them:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, winning elections across the country, raising tons of money and is in the process of building the most powerful political machine in our history.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing we’ve ever seen, running a party that just keeps losing and underperforming, that has had dozens and dozens of leaders indicted across the country, that is far more dangerous and extreme than ever before and that is facing an unprecedented internal rebellion against their historically terrible candidate.

The Good Economic News Just Keeps Coming - We’ve continued to have really good economic news in recent weeks. Inflation was ZERO in May. Prices did not rise and the price of many goods fell. The May jobs report was 50% higher than expected. The World Bank upped it global growth forecast because of the strength of the American economy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker has q2 GDP coming in at a very robust 3% Wage growth remains very strong. The stock market keeps breaking records. New data found that crime and murder rates have plummeted, and flows to the border are way down from where they were last year……

Joe Biden has a been a very good President, the country is clearly better off and we need to be loud and proud about his successes every day.

With Dems and 2 Pods - Try to find some time this weekend to watch my new With Democrats, Things Get Better presentation. It will leave you with a little more pep in your Democratic step, as it is a 30 minute reflection on the greatness and goodness of this remarkable party we are all part of. Think of With Dems like a Hopium orientation. If you are new here, and want to go deeper into the world view driving our community, you should watch With Dems. Here’s what I call the money slide from the presentation, one that shows that 96% of all jobs created in America since 1989 have come under Democratic President - essentially all of them.

I also did a sit down this week with Rick Wilson, Stuart Stevens and Joe Trippi of Resolute Square, and spoke to Molly Jong-Fast for her pod, Fast Politics. Both were terrific discussions.

2 Events This Week -

• Tues, June 25, 730pm ET - The monthly Zoom gathering of the entire Hopium Chronicles community - Register here. Excited to see everyone. So much to talk about!

• Sat, June 29 - I’ll be speaking in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit in Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register. Hope to see DC area Hopium folks there! This is always a great event.

Let’s Make June Count Everyone!!!!! - The new polls suggest June is turning out as we hoped, and we need to keep making June count everyone!

Learn more about the “Check and Checkmate” strategy driving our June campaign and recommendations. Watch our new interviews with Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb, Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27) and Kirsten Engel (AZ-06). Donate and volunteer below. Together, over the past month we’ve raised more than $525,000 for our candidates/state parties and have already blown past our original Winning The House goal of $300,000. Thank you all - it’s amazing stuff!!!!

Here’s where we are today, and here’s how you can help:

• Biden-Harris - $381,000 today, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

  Watch my favorite Biden-Harris Ad “Flag”

• Winning The House - $327,000 today, $400,000 goal - yes!!!!! - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve blown past our $300,000 goal and are now shooting for $400,000 - great work everyone!

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $203,000 today, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• North Carolina - $252,000 today, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Nebraska/Blue Dot -$60,000 today, $100,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

Thank you all! Our community of proud patriots and information warriors just keeps bringing it day after day after day. So inspired by your passion, grit, determination and willingness to leave it all out there on the playing field for this great country. As we discuss in the new With Dems presentation, when democracy calls Democrats answer, and that is what all of you are doing now - answering democracy’s call, powerfully!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10% Off Annual Hopium Membership in June - As a token of my gratitude for all that you are doing, I’m now offering a 10% discount on annual paid subscriptions for new subscribers through the end of the month. Click on this link to subscribe today. On that link you can also purchase gift or group subscriptions for others you’d like bring into the Hopium community. If you signed up as a paid subscriber in the first half of last year and want to make sure your paid subscription is current and up to date check be sure to visit here.

My stretch goal is to get to 10,000 paid subscribers by June 30th. We are within range of hitting that target as we at now at 9,560. These funds will put Hopium in a financial place to close out this election strong. Thanks to all of you who have stepped up and become a paid subscriber in recent days - you are making June count!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon