Some of the ticket splitting - especially in last week’s NYT/Sienna poll is so far removed from reality it cannot be taken seriously. There’s a lot of whacky data in that poll but especially the senate ticket splitting - it just doesn’t happen in modern elections. In most other polls it’s all with the MoE and reflects that some in the sample are hedging that a top of the ticket change might occur. It won’t and when it doesn’t happen those voters will “come home.”
I think looking at Macron’s reelection in France is instructive. A not so popular incumbent with a well know far-right opponent that polled well early. Eventually voters realized it was a choice b/w the two and picked Macron. I think ‘24 is going to play out in a very similar fashion here in the good old USA.
If anything, most of the split-ticket voting will be to President Biden’s benefit. In state after state, the Nikki Haley / non-Trump vote in Republican primaries has significantly exceeded the Uncommitted / non-Biden in Democratic primaries.
This leads me to think that a solid portion of Republican & independent voters will turn their backs on Trump, while voting for palatable non-MAGA Republicans downticket.
Would you mind sharing a link for the pro Biden content training? I have had to stay off media of most kinds for my sanity but if I had a way to use it to help Biden get elected I would venture back.
Bluntly, you should probably curate your social media feed or you will wind up going round the bend. I follow Hopium, the VoteDem forum on Reddit, and a few of the posts on Talking Points Memo. A constant flood of doom from social media is not healthy and it doesn’t accomplish anything other than to damage your own mental health.
The VoteDem subreddit has a pinned spreadsheet of races that need text and phone banking, postcarding (I postcarded for Will Rollins, who is challenging Ken Calvert for CA-41), Vote Forward letters, and so on. Believe me, this will make far more difference to voters and give you far more peace of mind than posting on TikTok or wherever.
You said it Impossible Santa Wife ! I've had severely cut down what content I follow. For many years I've been a political junkie & even 6-8 months ago I was listening to any political podcast I could get my hands (or ears) on, reading anything substack would arbitrarily decide to serve me, following God knows how many YouTube recommended channels & I was a wreck because so much of it was a " we're fucked and there's nothing you can do about it" doom loop. I was a total emotional wreck and in a much darker place. Now I basically follow Hopium & a few other select newsletters, occasionally listen to a Rick Wilson or Joe Trippi pod and have customized my YouTube channel to the point where it DOES NOT recommend cable news. I'm trying to help a friend with a similar predicament - but A. Old habits die hard & B. He recently became a father, so I cut him some slack if he doesn't get to Hopium that much. I keep filled in as much as possible. He came to me telling me how nervous he was recently & I said, " hey man, try staying off of twitter for a bit & watching less cable news " in a friendly way. He understood. Every time I ask him, "Hey did ya do your homework?" He knows it's code for did you read Hopium ?
I expected to hear more applause when Biden mentioned forgiveness of student loans. I was impressed by the lack of the overall enthusiasm in the crowd. Maybe I’m being too harsh or cynical but I am concerned.
I'm sorry, but really? This is the response? Biden goes to a college campus in the middle of all this. Makes a powerful speech. Addresses the big issues of the day. Shows leadership and courage and you are judging this based on your perception of the enthusiasm of the crowd? This was not a speech designed to elicit cheers and applause. This was a serious, somber speech by a President in a challenging time. It was not a campaign rally, or a political speech. Folks have to stop going immediately to dark places. I am weary weary of it.
Simon, I whole heartedly agree! First off…great data in today’s post so thank you for that. Secondly, I both watched through and read through Biden’s speech. It was excellent and in vividly stark contrast to anything Trump could even attempt to muster. Not to mention, I do believe it will have a more positive impact than a negative one throughout this election cycle.
Was there some initial resistance set at the beginning with small protests (and for those reading…YES, they were SMALL)? Yes! Did that overtake or overshadow the speech and the overall tone throughout the commencement? No! Here with Hopium, you thankfully direct us to the bigger picture…which is the quality of the speech, it’s visceral significance, and the impact most of us believe it will actually have.
News outlets like to find that one or two students who ignorantly professes they ‘weren’t moved.’ Fine! Most of us here are sharp enough to see through that and understand that was not the majority tone struck there. I don’t know about anyone else, but I heard applause, laughter, and I believe a significant portion of these students in fact WILL come back into the fold to vote for Biden in November.
Many of these students are keen to the environment by which they’re surrounded and for people to keep pouncing on their ignorance, meshing them all together as a whole group rather than compartmentalizing the factions of young people who are or aren’t ‘in clear reality with the majority’ (which by the way, those odds by numbers actually play more to our favor then reported) is counterproductive and only helps foment an unnecessary divide.
Like you said and lest we forget, Israel/Gaza is NOT the number one issue for the vast majority of young voters let alone voters of all ages in general…regardless how affecting the conflict may be. 6,000 colleges across the country, maybe 50 with protests, less than twenty with aggressive protests. That’s not even close to a majority of even young voters.
Yes, there are many uninformed/misinformed people out there across both political spectrums and that’s a societal reality we have coexisted with for generations. However, I believe as you do, there are more pro democracy fighting citizens and we know here with Hopium, the number one, two, and three issues for voters of all ages, are women’s healthcare (abortion), preservation of democracy, and the economy! As long as that sentiment remains ( which I bullishly believe it will)…then I completely agree when you say I much rather be us in our position than them in theirs even against all seeming odds at times.
And the notion that a significant number of younger voters would rather decide not to vote to protect abortion rights because of their opposition to what may happen in Gaza is preposterous!
Mike, on the one hand, I get it, but on top of the excellent points that Simon & Co have already made, I really feel like you're reading too much into this. I've been there man. I look for validation that things are going our way - it's always been a habit and I usually start that in every election cycle about this time - it's just what I do as an insecure person. Would I love to wake up to a table of polls with Biden 10, 15, 20 points up ? You betcha ! Do I want read non-snarky NYT headlines about Biden ( and a front page story about Project 2025 or Trumps cognitive decline )? Hell yes ! And would I have loved to heard the thunderous applause at Biden's student loan remarks ? Goes without saying. However, I'm not holding my breath for these moments of validation to ever come. We don't need them, and it's another thing we should not "wait" for. As Simon points out every single day here, if you read between the lines, not only is there plenty of evidence our position is improving, but individuals like us are a key part of that shift, and we can help in so many ways to move it further. Plus what Biden has co continuously "impressed" me with is his ability to outmaneuver what everyone thinks is a dead end for him. Let's use our agency to help propel our standard bearer - we're in this together ! Keep calm & campaign on!
The problem with the student loan forgiveness effort is the loans being forgiven are federal student loans which are capped at $30k lifetime, have a fixed low interest rate, and minimal impact in credit if defaulted. Federal student loans are the best kind of debt to have. The private student loans are the problem and what is causing students to drown in debt for hundreds of thousands of dollars. The Biden administration should target these loans next by pressuring the banks to forgive them with incentives and FDIC threats in the next four years.
Simon - I agree with you that his Morehouse speech will be remembered. It made me so proud to have him as President - he is a good man and a good President. I wanted Bernie or Elizabeth during the primaries in 2020, but it's long been obvious that Joe was the right man for our times. Thanks for all the updates - they are appreciated! Kent
President Biden has proved himself a master at building alliances to get stuff done. The fact that he’s managed to pass historic bipartisan legislation in such a divided and polarized House and Senate is proof of that.
Senator Elizabeth Warren is a hands-on politician who has had remarkable influence, both in the Senate and with the Biden Administration. It’s been said that "Personnel is policy". Warren has recommended many of the people Biden has appointed to key positions relevant to financial regulation and oversight.
Bernie Sanders has a good heart and some good ideas, but otherwise he has been a disappointment. Between 2016 and 2020, he had four years to build a broader alliance – but he utterly failed to do so. Likewise, we cannot point to much legislation that Bernie got enacted by building the necessary support.
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Conclusion: Joe Biden is definitely the right man for our times – both now and after he wins re-election in November 2024!
I agree. I was a Warren voter in the primary, but I have been so pleasantly surprised by Joe Biden’s term that I am all on board for four more years. I think I underestimated just how much several *decades* of building up goodwill in Congress, and particularly the Senate, could do. Followed, of course, by eight years at Barack Obama’s elbow as his VP. Joe is good with people. He picks good staff and Cabinet members and runs a tight ship.
His refusal to bow down and osculate the posteriors of the self-important pundit class are what is garnering him all this bad press, that, and the fact that Trump was a huge cash cow for major media. When I see stuff like “a few silent protestors at Morehouse” I see a pundit class absolutely *desperate* to make Republican Fetch happen again.
I will only start truly fretting if I see a Comey-type event materialize. Gaza seems yet another attempt at making fetch happen - given that it’s way down on the list of young voters’ concerns, as it should be.
People don’t care that much about foreign policy unless actual Americans are coming home in wheelchairs or body bags as in Vietnam or Iraq. Very cynically, I presume many of the people who post the most about Gaza this and that are just trying to come off as “we’re not selfish like all those other Americans.” When push comes to shove, I doubt they’re going to go “who cares about LGBTQ+ rights, abortion rights, health care, and the economy!”
Heck, Americans can’t even point to Santa Claus Village on a map of Finland! (It is in Rovaniemi, near the Arctic Circle. Although some Norwegians might very loudly disagree.)
Strong Speech by Biden. I am looking forward to the debates. Biden is really finding the right voice for the moment. I am confident when the country tunes in they will see that.
hey happy Monday, Simon, sure needed this today to counter the sudden veer into spooked by some writers who usually keep their heads. even Beutler is sounding panicked. not seeing any particular numbers or events that explain it, so curious what generates these lurches.
anyway, staying calm and plowing ahead is the way.
my mantra for the foreseeable future: pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will. (I forget who said it).
I'm in Asheville, supporting my state Dem party for sure, as well as Stein and Jackson and my local Dem candidates. don't have much to spare for contributions but plan to split them between Biden and maybe Vote Riders, and North Carolina candidates and orgs.
determined not to succumb to exhaustion and panic. we defy the tiresome "bedwetters" cliché by living calm and strong, as serene as possible, knowing we got to steer through this storm and getting prepared to do just that. no outcome is ever assured, but we will attract others with our steady conviction to the truth.
🧘♂️ 🧘 🧘♂️ I love the focus and determination your note shares. Yesterday Simon wrote about this time being like the 2020 “ red wave” time ( last time when the facts pointed in a different direction) and I thought Oh, this is the storm they were fighting off; THIS is the battle and he sees all the positives we Dems have now compared to then. I’m soooo glad he’s been there, done that even if no two elections are the same. My husband and I like to travel, hike and we always know “ LOCALS KNOWlEDGE” is best. You’re right, no guarantees but only hard work will get us there. And maybe a lot of deep breaths.
As Jarrod says: KC&CO! ( keep calm and campaign on)😀
I just bought my 3rd buy from BlueWave for their Arizona Campaign for 200 PCs- Ruth and I are enjoying this artistic group of Volunteers who send beautiful cards supporting our democracy. Looking forward to NCs.
I haven't kept up with Beutler since he left crooked media. Truthfully I haven't listened to crooked media much recently - not because I don't like them - but I have room for only soooo much political content and I found I prioritized Hopium more than CM.
Let’s talk about Trump already saying that if he wins, he will run for a third term. What he is saying is that he wants to be like Putin and never leave. Let’s hammer that hard.
He'll be Biden's age (today) in four years, and by that time I expect his dementia to be so clearly evident that even his cultish followers can't ignore it.
"I know there are many commentators who do not agree with my assessment of the election right now." Im not sure that's exactly the case. I don't think anyone doubts the election is close and competitive. What I think seems unbelievable to most rational voters is that despite everything Trump and his supporters have done and continue to do the election is STILL close and competitive. If Trump was just a little smarter he would take one Democratic issue and state he supports it (verbally only of course) and then the polls and probably the election would tilt to him in a landslide. Insane. If Trump just came out and said "These oil companies have to go they are wrecking the planet." he would not lose one republican vote, not one, but I bet would gain tremendous "independent" and some dem support and surge ahead in the polls. Same with abortion, all Trump has to do is say "SCOTUS went too far, we need to fix this abortion thing, and you know 5 of those justices do whatever I want." and never actually do anything about it, but he would still surge ahead. Biden makes the slightest "misstep" like cautioning Israel on its heavy handed military response (but still giving them aid) and he loses 3 points. It's very frustrating. Thank goodness Trump is an idiot and won't clue in to this.
Orange man won't clue in to this, but we don't need to give him advice, and the best thing to do when he tries to sell BS to the people is make the face and show the tone that indicates "are you friggin' crazy believing that?" Give his promises no quarter and no validation. By all means, if you're knees are jittery from paddling hard, keep 'em under the water and don't show 'em. Keep your swagger on! The Orange Man is a mere pimple on POTUS's you-know-what.
Biden is President and therefore under greater scrutiny. Trump's speech and behavior are so extreme and downright insane that everyone seems to expect it and have become inured to it. Sad, but true.
That’s of the all too prevalent mentality that Republicans are just a force of nature, who cannot be controlled or contained, just lived with. Meanwhile the expectations for Democrats are sky-high and any misstep is a HUGE MISTAKE ELECTORAL LOSS!
Frankly I think 2016 traumatized a lot of people very badly (and I cannot blame them), and, aside from the Comey bombshell, it was more like Clinton’s campaign was nibbled to death by media ducks, and we’re now hyper-aware of this kind of chip chip chipping away that pundits love to do. (It didn’t help that the various *and separate* “email” issues got conflated into one big Her Emails.)
As usual very good points. I still deal with my own trauma of 2016 to an extent. The problem was I was worrying way more and doing less back then.... and tuning in/clicking on headlines like a maniac, exactly what the infotainment manufacturers want!
Simon, I wonder if you have come across this yet! This was recently posted on NBC News and I believe is a huge optimistic boost in our pro democracy fight to win this election. The excerpt from the article is below…
“WASHINGTON — The Human Rights Campaign, the largest LGBTQ rights group in the United States, is launching a $15 million commitment to help Democratic President Joe Biden defeat Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 election. The spending blitz, shared first with NBC News, will cover the six key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. The group says it will include paid ads, staff hires, field campaigns and events in those states, which are poised to decide who wins the presidency and Congress.”
Absolutely possible and aided by different factors: in Fl reproductive rights on the ballot vs an extreme abortion ban agreed to by DeSantis that will increase women and younger voter turnout by 20% —huge potential impact on Biden plus Senate and a few CDs vote; in NC dynamic new Dem leadership by Anderson Clayton plus horrible racist R choice for Gov and sensible Jewish AttnyGen candidate Josh Stein for Gov; statewide NC is really very purple with huge group of educated moderates as Indys; this could be an important EC pickup for Joe too!
I remember in 2022 I started following three or four people (Simon was one) who were calling the Red Wave a mirage. One of them was Tom Bonier and the other was Prof. Michael McDonald- they were both tracking and interpreting the early vote and calling out that the Red Wave wasn’t showing up and in fact Dems were highly motivated in the early vote. Someone, perhaps Tom Bonier, pointed out that actual voters will always be better data predictors than polls.
The polls aren’t great right now, we can admit that. But what we’ve seen in every election since 2022 is incredibly encouraging- actual voters are electing Dems overwhelmingly, and in unexpected places.
What we’re seeing in the primaries, with Trump running unopposed and consistently losing 12-20% of the GOP primary vote in protest? That’s incredibly encouraging.
The fact the Republicans are doubling and tripling down on abortion restrictions and beginning to gleefully talk about restricting travel for pregnant women and legislating birth control and more and more, telling women to get back in the kitchen (thank you Harrison Butker for that odious speech, it reminded a lot of young women just how conservative view them)? That’s incredibly encouraging.
The media is handwringing over the far leftist response to Gaza, but this election is going to be decided by abortion, I’m convinced. Some young leftist women may be foolish enough to think a national abortion ban won’t happen or that their uptopian version of a revolution is better than slow, steady progress, but Dem and moderate (and I suspect some conservative) women won’t be fooled.
I listened to Tara McGowen discussing Trump's very significant, disproportionate advantage on tik tok. She is frightened by it and I came away very concerned. I'd like to know more about how the Biden campaign and others are addressing this.
I’m on TikTok, what you’d call “Leftist TikTok,” and there is a very vocal movement telling young people not to vote for Biden, calling for an absolutely insane plan to let the authoritarian regime win so that they can be part of a “revolution” (how these people think they can revolt against an authoritarian government willing to use the US military to put down protesters belies any understanding). Other leftists are trying to convince them that if they can’t bring themselves to vote for Biden, at least vote for the administration they’d want to organize and protest under, but…it’s a mess. I’m hoping a lot of the comments are trolls, because it’s very concerning if they’re not…
I think Biden’s coalition might look different this time- I think he may lose support among young people and gain support of independents/NeverAgainTrumpers (aka the people still voting for Haley) and come out with the win. But I’m worried about what feels like a very coordinated anti-Biden campaign on TikTok.
This is exactly what I mean about the "bro culture" Trump has a huge advantage in. Bidens money, carefully coordinated messaging, and boots on the ground campaign offices are no help here. I hope it doesn't have much actual voting influence, but I do think it has a large polling and opinion influence.
I'm not on TikTok but DemCast ,if you're not awarre,has a presence there.DenCast's director recently spoke with my activist group and they need info warriors, what you'd call counter the Trumpist bull##$%!
Freakin' retards and posers: They need to hear more from ex-con rapper and speaker "Killer Mike". The words and goals referenced below are about specifically Black Liberation, but it applies just as well to Liberal Liberation, Progressive Liberation, Women's Liberation, LGBTQ Liberation or Lefty/Hippie Liberation:
Killer Mike takes the microphone and begins to question the crowd about “revolutionary-ism.” “Who fishes? Who knows how to fish?” he asks. Some hands go up. “Who knows how to hunt?” he asks. Fewer hands go up. This cycle repeats itself after every question. “Who shoots on a regular basis, meaning once or twice a week?” “Who farms and grows their own food, right now?” His voice grows more severe as he admonishes: “You ain’t ready to oppose nothing. You are as a part of this system as any white person gentrifying in this city.” And a little later: “I love you enough to tell you, you ain’t ready to revolt shit.” As his voice rises and the crowd becomes more excited, he leans into the microphone: “So, if you’re not going to revolt tomorrow, if you’re not going to do like Elijah said and take all the southern states, if you’re not going to gentrify Alabama, stop trying to grow warriors to fight a fight you’re too scared to fight.”
Killer Mike’s message, beyond his self-sufficiency and survivalist impulses, resonates for me. I believe that revolution must extend beyond household self-sufficiency and pure economics and reach high into the power structures that govern. I believe that central to Black liberation is the assumption of power, the constitutional seizure of it.
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As I was saying Lefty revolutionary tiktok hasn't thought things through. "They ain't ready to revolt shit". People, meatheads really, who can and are willing to do violence best, and not just hiding behind a screen and keyboard, are by a factor 7 or 8 to 1 conservative-leaning people, or apolitical. If you believe or want progress of any kind, that is left of center, just how do you plan to do without majority approval within the constitutional framework? There *is* no way around that electoral battlefield and the turnout and persuasion battles.
Yes, Tara's presentation was not exactly hopeful, especially with TikTok. Does anyone know what Biden, Democrats, and their allies are doing about the volume deficit on TikTok?
TikTok is obviously a troll paradise. It’s right that a ban or forced divestment is coming, as the algorithm is absolutely promoting anti democratic propaganda. But it still doesn’t represent reality or a significant percentage of real people.
I’m not really going to worry that much about the Extremely Online types, as experience has shown that real-life voters don’t reflect the type of person who is glued to political social media 24/7. And if Joe Biden is picking up *older* voters, that’s good. Older people vote. So do women. Young men with high school or less tend to be non-voters. (Supposedly non-voters prefer Trump. That and $5 gets you a cup of coffee.)
I’m sure they working on something but keep in mind like all social media - the majority are not on it or not regular users - and this especially true when talking about the majority of voters.
Me too but something in the data gave me pause. The analysis compared Trump v Biden from Jan 2023 to May 2024. So, most of the data is from 2023 when the Biden campaign did not exist. What matters is Jan 2024 to May 2024 and what the campaign is doing now. Perhaps there was a typo (don’t think so but possible). I think Tik Tok is important and hope and know the campaign is on it (they are literally on Tik Tok) but the Fact that the data used does not match the take being offered is a sign that we are being spun - once again - to get upset. So, let’s keep our powder dry… See quote below…
“According to an internal TikTok analysis, from January 2023 into May 2024, videos tagged #Trump2024 have generated 472.8 million likes and 6.5 billion views, compared with 50.9 million likes and 558 million views for videos tagged #Biden2024.”
I'm not understanding why every young woman on Tik Tok isn't screaming about being turned into livestock - I'm old and I'm screaming. And why every young person is not seemingly concerned that the GOP in power literally means no hope in hell for anything slowing the climate destabilization juggernaut that will ruin their future long after old folks like me are gone. I think we, certainly I, am not comprehending how utterly clueless so many people are about what is going on in politics (tho Rachel Biticofer has been trying to tell us.) I heard a report on MSNBC about how, on the day the Florida 6 week abortion ban went into effect, a woman showed up at a clinic and was shocked she couldn't get help. She did not even know the law had been passed! This floors me.
Thank you Naima! Hug from this NC voter! Here for everyone is this great long interview of Anderson by Pondering Politics on YT also a North Carolina resident. It is great background for writing!
Also I met Anderson!!!!!Saturday at our Biden/Harris field office opening. I told her I was part of HC and so proud that we were ALL helping her. She gave Simon a lovely compliment, saying he was one of the first to support her on this crazy journey she undertook and that she was grateful. She gave a great inspiring speech. She is NC’s not so secret young energetic weapon! I was proud to say hello on behalf of HC. Hug from NC ‘y’all’ ;-) and thanks
How great to get to meet this firebrand in person, B.
I hope you got a hug with her or at least a selfie🤣 She seems to be becoming a sort of “ Rock Star” for the NC youth and NC youth vote. If we can help her win NC we all win! Thanks for representing HC for us.
Love these vibes Irene! I said to her ‘Sorry I may fan-girl (lol older lady really) I am part of Simon Rosenberg’s HC and we are so proud to support you’ She smiled so big and said ‘Oh Simon I got to say....’ then she shared her lovely comment. She seemed humble but confident and motivating, much like Simon, really. Such a positive communicator. She could have a career as a politician.... (but we need her to turn us blue first!) I didn’t get a selfie, but I recorded her speech. As I get more involved in my county dp in coming months, i hope I can meet her again. Maybe Simon will visit NC.... I would drive to see those two together! Anyway it was a thrill! Thanks for enjoying it with me Irene!!!! Hugs! Wahoo! :-)
Wait till she see we’re ( Hopium Community) is sending her $200k of support for all her hard work! She’ll be so excited. And will know how much we want to help her be successful!
I wonder if Simon will consider just letting us move up to bigger goal for NC ? 🤔🇺🇸
So excited to see the fundraising totals and the impact that a year-old organization can have! Next time you report Simon, might you again include as you sometimes have in the past, the number of donations (because that is also impressive). But if too much trouble no worries!
Some of the ticket splitting - especially in last week’s NYT/Sienna poll is so far removed from reality it cannot be taken seriously. There’s a lot of whacky data in that poll but especially the senate ticket splitting - it just doesn’t happen in modern elections. In most other polls it’s all with the MoE and reflects that some in the sample are hedging that a top of the ticket change might occur. It won’t and when it doesn’t happen those voters will “come home.”
I think looking at Macron’s reelection in France is instructive. A not so popular incumbent with a well know far-right opponent that polled well early. Eventually voters realized it was a choice b/w the two and picked Macron. I think ‘24 is going to play out in a very similar fashion here in the good old USA.
If anything, most of the split-ticket voting will be to President Biden’s benefit. In state after state, the Nikki Haley / non-Trump vote in Republican primaries has significantly exceeded the Uncommitted / non-Biden in Democratic primaries.
This leads me to think that a solid portion of Republican & independent voters will turn their backs on Trump, while voting for palatable non-MAGA Republicans downticket.
I've been thinking about a Macron analogy a lot lately too!
Would you mind sharing a link for the pro Biden content training? I have had to stay off media of most kinds for my sanity but if I had a way to use it to help Biden get elected I would venture back.
Thank you!
Bluntly, you should probably curate your social media feed or you will wind up going round the bend. I follow Hopium, the VoteDem forum on Reddit, and a few of the posts on Talking Points Memo. A constant flood of doom from social media is not healthy and it doesn’t accomplish anything other than to damage your own mental health.
The VoteDem subreddit has a pinned spreadsheet of races that need text and phone banking, postcarding (I postcarded for Will Rollins, who is challenging Ken Calvert for CA-41), Vote Forward letters, and so on. Believe me, this will make far more difference to voters and give you far more peace of mind than posting on TikTok or wherever.
100 percent. Thank you for this valuable resource to do more and worry less.
You said it Impossible Santa Wife ! I've had severely cut down what content I follow. For many years I've been a political junkie & even 6-8 months ago I was listening to any political podcast I could get my hands (or ears) on, reading anything substack would arbitrarily decide to serve me, following God knows how many YouTube recommended channels & I was a wreck because so much of it was a " we're fucked and there's nothing you can do about it" doom loop. I was a total emotional wreck and in a much darker place. Now I basically follow Hopium & a few other select newsletters, occasionally listen to a Rick Wilson or Joe Trippi pod and have customized my YouTube channel to the point where it DOES NOT recommend cable news. I'm trying to help a friend with a similar predicament - but A. Old habits die hard & B. He recently became a father, so I cut him some slack if he doesn't get to Hopium that much. I keep filled in as much as possible. He came to me telling me how nervous he was recently & I said, " hey man, try staying off of twitter for a bit & watching less cable news " in a friendly way. He understood. Every time I ask him, "Hey did ya do your homework?" He knows it's code for did you read Hopium ?
I expected to hear more applause when Biden mentioned forgiveness of student loans. I was impressed by the lack of the overall enthusiasm in the crowd. Maybe I’m being too harsh or cynical but I am concerned.
I'm sorry, but really? This is the response? Biden goes to a college campus in the middle of all this. Makes a powerful speech. Addresses the big issues of the day. Shows leadership and courage and you are judging this based on your perception of the enthusiasm of the crowd? This was not a speech designed to elicit cheers and applause. This was a serious, somber speech by a President in a challenging time. It was not a campaign rally, or a political speech. Folks have to stop going immediately to dark places. I am weary weary of it.
Simon, I whole heartedly agree! First off…great data in today’s post so thank you for that. Secondly, I both watched through and read through Biden’s speech. It was excellent and in vividly stark contrast to anything Trump could even attempt to muster. Not to mention, I do believe it will have a more positive impact than a negative one throughout this election cycle.
Was there some initial resistance set at the beginning with small protests (and for those reading…YES, they were SMALL)? Yes! Did that overtake or overshadow the speech and the overall tone throughout the commencement? No! Here with Hopium, you thankfully direct us to the bigger picture…which is the quality of the speech, it’s visceral significance, and the impact most of us believe it will actually have.
News outlets like to find that one or two students who ignorantly professes they ‘weren’t moved.’ Fine! Most of us here are sharp enough to see through that and understand that was not the majority tone struck there. I don’t know about anyone else, but I heard applause, laughter, and I believe a significant portion of these students in fact WILL come back into the fold to vote for Biden in November.
Many of these students are keen to the environment by which they’re surrounded and for people to keep pouncing on their ignorance, meshing them all together as a whole group rather than compartmentalizing the factions of young people who are or aren’t ‘in clear reality with the majority’ (which by the way, those odds by numbers actually play more to our favor then reported) is counterproductive and only helps foment an unnecessary divide.
Like you said and lest we forget, Israel/Gaza is NOT the number one issue for the vast majority of young voters let alone voters of all ages in general…regardless how affecting the conflict may be. 6,000 colleges across the country, maybe 50 with protests, less than twenty with aggressive protests. That’s not even close to a majority of even young voters.
Yes, there are many uninformed/misinformed people out there across both political spectrums and that’s a societal reality we have coexisted with for generations. However, I believe as you do, there are more pro democracy fighting citizens and we know here with Hopium, the number one, two, and three issues for voters of all ages, are women’s healthcare (abortion), preservation of democracy, and the economy! As long as that sentiment remains ( which I bullishly believe it will)…then I completely agree when you say I much rather be us in our position than them in theirs even against all seeming odds at times.
Excellent analysis!
And the notion that a significant number of younger voters would rather decide not to vote to protect abortion rights because of their opposition to what may happen in Gaza is preposterous!
"[The] number one, two, and three issues for voters of all ages, are women’s healthcare (abortion), preservation of democracy, and the economy."
And *preservation of our planet*!
Mike, on the one hand, I get it, but on top of the excellent points that Simon & Co have already made, I really feel like you're reading too much into this. I've been there man. I look for validation that things are going our way - it's always been a habit and I usually start that in every election cycle about this time - it's just what I do as an insecure person. Would I love to wake up to a table of polls with Biden 10, 15, 20 points up ? You betcha ! Do I want read non-snarky NYT headlines about Biden ( and a front page story about Project 2025 or Trumps cognitive decline )? Hell yes ! And would I have loved to heard the thunderous applause at Biden's student loan remarks ? Goes without saying. However, I'm not holding my breath for these moments of validation to ever come. We don't need them, and it's another thing we should not "wait" for. As Simon points out every single day here, if you read between the lines, not only is there plenty of evidence our position is improving, but individuals like us are a key part of that shift, and we can help in so many ways to move it further. Plus what Biden has co continuously "impressed" me with is his ability to outmaneuver what everyone thinks is a dead end for him. Let's use our agency to help propel our standard bearer - we're in this together ! Keep calm & campaign on!
The problem with the student loan forgiveness effort is the loans being forgiven are federal student loans which are capped at $30k lifetime, have a fixed low interest rate, and minimal impact in credit if defaulted. Federal student loans are the best kind of debt to have. The private student loans are the problem and what is causing students to drown in debt for hundreds of thousands of dollars. The Biden administration should target these loans next by pressuring the banks to forgive them with incentives and FDIC threats in the next four years.
Simon - I agree with you that his Morehouse speech will be remembered. It made me so proud to have him as President - he is a good man and a good President. I wanted Bernie or Elizabeth during the primaries in 2020, but it's long been obvious that Joe was the right man for our times. Thanks for all the updates - they are appreciated! Kent
President Biden has proved himself a master at building alliances to get stuff done. The fact that he’s managed to pass historic bipartisan legislation in such a divided and polarized House and Senate is proof of that.
Senator Elizabeth Warren is a hands-on politician who has had remarkable influence, both in the Senate and with the Biden Administration. It’s been said that "Personnel is policy". Warren has recommended many of the people Biden has appointed to key positions relevant to financial regulation and oversight.
Bernie Sanders has a good heart and some good ideas, but otherwise he has been a disappointment. Between 2016 and 2020, he had four years to build a broader alliance – but he utterly failed to do so. Likewise, we cannot point to much legislation that Bernie got enacted by building the necessary support.
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Conclusion: Joe Biden is definitely the right man for our times – both now and after he wins re-election in November 2024!
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I agree. I was a Warren voter in the primary, but I have been so pleasantly surprised by Joe Biden’s term that I am all on board for four more years. I think I underestimated just how much several *decades* of building up goodwill in Congress, and particularly the Senate, could do. Followed, of course, by eight years at Barack Obama’s elbow as his VP. Joe is good with people. He picks good staff and Cabinet members and runs a tight ship.
His refusal to bow down and osculate the posteriors of the self-important pundit class are what is garnering him all this bad press, that, and the fact that Trump was a huge cash cow for major media. When I see stuff like “a few silent protestors at Morehouse” I see a pundit class absolutely *desperate* to make Republican Fetch happen again.
I will only start truly fretting if I see a Comey-type event materialize. Gaza seems yet another attempt at making fetch happen - given that it’s way down on the list of young voters’ concerns, as it should be.
People don’t care that much about foreign policy unless actual Americans are coming home in wheelchairs or body bags as in Vietnam or Iraq. Very cynically, I presume many of the people who post the most about Gaza this and that are just trying to come off as “we’re not selfish like all those other Americans.” When push comes to shove, I doubt they’re going to go “who cares about LGBTQ+ rights, abortion rights, health care, and the economy!”
Good points.
Heck, Americans can’t even point to Santa Claus Village on a map of Finland! (It is in Rovaniemi, near the Arctic Circle. Although some Norwegians might very loudly disagree.)
Keep spreading these positive comments on your social feed. I’ve been using Joe Biden is a good president and hashtags: #democracy #loveitorleaveit
Any news about senate races in Ohio and Montana?
Strong Speech by Biden. I am looking forward to the debates. Biden is really finding the right voice for the moment. I am confident when the country tunes in they will see that.
hey happy Monday, Simon, sure needed this today to counter the sudden veer into spooked by some writers who usually keep their heads. even Beutler is sounding panicked. not seeing any particular numbers or events that explain it, so curious what generates these lurches.
anyway, staying calm and plowing ahead is the way.
my mantra for the foreseeable future: pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will. (I forget who said it).
I'm in Asheville, supporting my state Dem party for sure, as well as Stein and Jackson and my local Dem candidates. don't have much to spare for contributions but plan to split them between Biden and maybe Vote Riders, and North Carolina candidates and orgs.
determined not to succumb to exhaustion and panic. we defy the tiresome "bedwetters" cliché by living calm and strong, as serene as possible, knowing we got to steer through this storm and getting prepared to do just that. no outcome is ever assured, but we will attract others with our steady conviction to the truth.
🧘♂️ 🧘 🧘♂️ I love the focus and determination your note shares. Yesterday Simon wrote about this time being like the 2020 “ red wave” time ( last time when the facts pointed in a different direction) and I thought Oh, this is the storm they were fighting off; THIS is the battle and he sees all the positives we Dems have now compared to then. I’m soooo glad he’s been there, done that even if no two elections are the same. My husband and I like to travel, hike and we always know “ LOCALS KNOWlEDGE” is best. You’re right, no guarantees but only hard work will get us there. And maybe a lot of deep breaths.
As Jarrod says: KC&CO! ( keep calm and campaign on)😀
I just bought my 3rd buy from BlueWave for their Arizona Campaign for 200 PCs- Ruth and I are enjoying this artistic group of Volunteers who send beautiful cards supporting our democracy. Looking forward to NCs.
I haven't kept up with Beutler since he left crooked media. Truthfully I haven't listened to crooked media much recently - not because I don't like them - but I have room for only soooo much political content and I found I prioritized Hopium more than CM.
Let’s talk about Trump already saying that if he wins, he will run for a third term. What he is saying is that he wants to be like Putin and never leave. Let’s hammer that hard.
Against the law!
He'll be Biden's age (today) in four years, and by that time I expect his dementia to be so clearly evident that even his cultish followers can't ignore it.
"I know there are many commentators who do not agree with my assessment of the election right now." Im not sure that's exactly the case. I don't think anyone doubts the election is close and competitive. What I think seems unbelievable to most rational voters is that despite everything Trump and his supporters have done and continue to do the election is STILL close and competitive. If Trump was just a little smarter he would take one Democratic issue and state he supports it (verbally only of course) and then the polls and probably the election would tilt to him in a landslide. Insane. If Trump just came out and said "These oil companies have to go they are wrecking the planet." he would not lose one republican vote, not one, but I bet would gain tremendous "independent" and some dem support and surge ahead in the polls. Same with abortion, all Trump has to do is say "SCOTUS went too far, we need to fix this abortion thing, and you know 5 of those justices do whatever I want." and never actually do anything about it, but he would still surge ahead. Biden makes the slightest "misstep" like cautioning Israel on its heavy handed military response (but still giving them aid) and he loses 3 points. It's very frustrating. Thank goodness Trump is an idiot and won't clue in to this.
Orange man won't clue in to this, but we don't need to give him advice, and the best thing to do when he tries to sell BS to the people is make the face and show the tone that indicates "are you friggin' crazy believing that?" Give his promises no quarter and no validation. By all means, if you're knees are jittery from paddling hard, keep 'em under the water and don't show 'em. Keep your swagger on! The Orange Man is a mere pimple on POTUS's you-know-what.
Biden is President and therefore under greater scrutiny. Trump's speech and behavior are so extreme and downright insane that everyone seems to expect it and have become inured to it. Sad, but true.
That’s of the all too prevalent mentality that Republicans are just a force of nature, who cannot be controlled or contained, just lived with. Meanwhile the expectations for Democrats are sky-high and any misstep is a HUGE MISTAKE ELECTORAL LOSS!
Frankly I think 2016 traumatized a lot of people very badly (and I cannot blame them), and, aside from the Comey bombshell, it was more like Clinton’s campaign was nibbled to death by media ducks, and we’re now hyper-aware of this kind of chip chip chipping away that pundits love to do. (It didn’t help that the various *and separate* “email” issues got conflated into one big Her Emails.)
As usual very good points. I still deal with my own trauma of 2016 to an extent. The problem was I was worrying way more and doing less back then.... and tuning in/clicking on headlines like a maniac, exactly what the infotainment manufacturers want!
Fabulous speech from such a decent, kind man.
Loved seeing you with Thom Hartmann!
Simon, I wonder if you have come across this yet! This was recently posted on NBC News and I believe is a huge optimistic boost in our pro democracy fight to win this election. The excerpt from the article is below…
“WASHINGTON — The Human Rights Campaign, the largest LGBTQ rights group in the United States, is launching a $15 million commitment to help Democratic President Joe Biden defeat Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 election. The spending blitz, shared first with NBC News, will cover the six key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. The group says it will include paid ads, staff hires, field campaigns and events in those states, which are poised to decide who wins the presidency and Congress.”
IMHO $1MM each in Florida and N.Carolina to FT 6 can flip both states. N. Carolina 16, FL 30 electoral votes.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/about-us
Absolutely possible and aided by different factors: in Fl reproductive rights on the ballot vs an extreme abortion ban agreed to by DeSantis that will increase women and younger voter turnout by 20% —huge potential impact on Biden plus Senate and a few CDs vote; in NC dynamic new Dem leadership by Anderson Clayton plus horrible racist R choice for Gov and sensible Jewish AttnyGen candidate Josh Stein for Gov; statewide NC is really very purple with huge group of educated moderates as Indys; this could be an important EC pickup for Joe too!
Let's hope that the campaign uses the money to establish an effective presence on TikTok. Social media is where the action is.
I remember in 2022 I started following three or four people (Simon was one) who were calling the Red Wave a mirage. One of them was Tom Bonier and the other was Prof. Michael McDonald- they were both tracking and interpreting the early vote and calling out that the Red Wave wasn’t showing up and in fact Dems were highly motivated in the early vote. Someone, perhaps Tom Bonier, pointed out that actual voters will always be better data predictors than polls.
The polls aren’t great right now, we can admit that. But what we’ve seen in every election since 2022 is incredibly encouraging- actual voters are electing Dems overwhelmingly, and in unexpected places.
What we’re seeing in the primaries, with Trump running unopposed and consistently losing 12-20% of the GOP primary vote in protest? That’s incredibly encouraging.
The fact the Republicans are doubling and tripling down on abortion restrictions and beginning to gleefully talk about restricting travel for pregnant women and legislating birth control and more and more, telling women to get back in the kitchen (thank you Harrison Butker for that odious speech, it reminded a lot of young women just how conservative view them)? That’s incredibly encouraging.
The media is handwringing over the far leftist response to Gaza, but this election is going to be decided by abortion, I’m convinced. Some young leftist women may be foolish enough to think a national abortion ban won’t happen or that their uptopian version of a revolution is better than slow, steady progress, but Dem and moderate (and I suspect some conservative) women won’t be fooled.
I listened to Tara McGowen discussing Trump's very significant, disproportionate advantage on tik tok. She is frightened by it and I came away very concerned. I'd like to know more about how the Biden campaign and others are addressing this.
I’m on TikTok, what you’d call “Leftist TikTok,” and there is a very vocal movement telling young people not to vote for Biden, calling for an absolutely insane plan to let the authoritarian regime win so that they can be part of a “revolution” (how these people think they can revolt against an authoritarian government willing to use the US military to put down protesters belies any understanding). Other leftists are trying to convince them that if they can’t bring themselves to vote for Biden, at least vote for the administration they’d want to organize and protest under, but…it’s a mess. I’m hoping a lot of the comments are trolls, because it’s very concerning if they’re not…
I think Biden’s coalition might look different this time- I think he may lose support among young people and gain support of independents/NeverAgainTrumpers (aka the people still voting for Haley) and come out with the win. But I’m worried about what feels like a very coordinated anti-Biden campaign on TikTok.
This is exactly what I mean about the "bro culture" Trump has a huge advantage in. Bidens money, carefully coordinated messaging, and boots on the ground campaign offices are no help here. I hope it doesn't have much actual voting influence, but I do think it has a large polling and opinion influence.
I'm not on TikTok but DemCast ,if you're not awarre,has a presence there.DenCast's director recently spoke with my activist group and they need info warriors, what you'd call counter the Trumpist bull##$%!
https://demcastusa.com/get-involved/
Freakin' retards and posers: They need to hear more from ex-con rapper and speaker "Killer Mike". The words and goals referenced below are about specifically Black Liberation, but it applies just as well to Liberal Liberation, Progressive Liberation, Women's Liberation, LGBTQ Liberation or Lefty/Hippie Liberation:
Killer Mike takes the microphone and begins to question the crowd about “revolutionary-ism.” “Who fishes? Who knows how to fish?” he asks. Some hands go up. “Who knows how to hunt?” he asks. Fewer hands go up. This cycle repeats itself after every question. “Who shoots on a regular basis, meaning once or twice a week?” “Who farms and grows their own food, right now?” His voice grows more severe as he admonishes: “You ain’t ready to oppose nothing. You are as a part of this system as any white person gentrifying in this city.” And a little later: “I love you enough to tell you, you ain’t ready to revolt shit.” As his voice rises and the crowd becomes more excited, he leans into the microphone: “So, if you’re not going to revolt tomorrow, if you’re not going to do like Elijah said and take all the southern states, if you’re not going to gentrify Alabama, stop trying to grow warriors to fight a fight you’re too scared to fight.”
Killer Mike’s message, beyond his self-sufficiency and survivalist impulses, resonates for me. I believe that revolution must extend beyond household self-sufficiency and pure economics and reach high into the power structures that govern. I believe that central to Black liberation is the assumption of power, the constitutional seizure of it.
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As I was saying Lefty revolutionary tiktok hasn't thought things through. "They ain't ready to revolt shit". People, meatheads really, who can and are willing to do violence best, and not just hiding behind a screen and keyboard, are by a factor 7 or 8 to 1 conservative-leaning people, or apolitical. If you believe or want progress of any kind, that is left of center, just how do you plan to do without majority approval within the constitutional framework? There *is* no way around that electoral battlefield and the turnout and persuasion battles.
Yup, the Left may not be ready for "revolutionary-ism".
But right-wingers, and especially the Alt Reich, are absolutely revolting!
Yes, Tara's presentation was not exactly hopeful, especially with TikTok. Does anyone know what Biden, Democrats, and their allies are doing about the volume deficit on TikTok?
TikTok is obviously a troll paradise. It’s right that a ban or forced divestment is coming, as the algorithm is absolutely promoting anti democratic propaganda. But it still doesn’t represent reality or a significant percentage of real people.
I’m not really going to worry that much about the Extremely Online types, as experience has shown that real-life voters don’t reflect the type of person who is glued to political social media 24/7. And if Joe Biden is picking up *older* voters, that’s good. Older people vote. So do women. Young men with high school or less tend to be non-voters. (Supposedly non-voters prefer Trump. That and $5 gets you a cup of coffee.)
I’m sure they working on something but keep in mind like all social media - the majority are not on it or not regular users - and this especially true when talking about the majority of voters.
Me too but something in the data gave me pause. The analysis compared Trump v Biden from Jan 2023 to May 2024. So, most of the data is from 2023 when the Biden campaign did not exist. What matters is Jan 2024 to May 2024 and what the campaign is doing now. Perhaps there was a typo (don’t think so but possible). I think Tik Tok is important and hope and know the campaign is on it (they are literally on Tik Tok) but the Fact that the data used does not match the take being offered is a sign that we are being spun - once again - to get upset. So, let’s keep our powder dry… See quote below…
“According to an internal TikTok analysis, from January 2023 into May 2024, videos tagged #Trump2024 have generated 472.8 million likes and 6.5 billion views, compared with 50.9 million likes and 558 million views for videos tagged #Biden2024.”
I'm not understanding why every young woman on Tik Tok isn't screaming about being turned into livestock - I'm old and I'm screaming. And why every young person is not seemingly concerned that the GOP in power literally means no hope in hell for anything slowing the climate destabilization juggernaut that will ruin their future long after old folks like me are gone. I think we, certainly I, am not comprehending how utterly clueless so many people are about what is going on in politics (tho Rachel Biticofer has been trying to tell us.) I heard a report on MSNBC about how, on the day the Florida 6 week abortion ban went into effect, a woman showed up at a clinic and was shocked she couldn't get help. She did not even know the law had been passed! This floors me.
I just gave more $$ to the NC Democratic party via the Hopium link!
We're closing in on $200K!
Let's gooooooo!
Yes, me too...it will definitely be a goal that is reached and surpassed. Thank you/us all.
Thank you Naima! Hug from this NC voter! Here for everyone is this great long interview of Anderson by Pondering Politics on YT also a North Carolina resident. It is great background for writing!
https://youtu.be/P6NUzTKjvBc?si=gZi5kjLzcWDGQaGs
Also I met Anderson!!!!!Saturday at our Biden/Harris field office opening. I told her I was part of HC and so proud that we were ALL helping her. She gave Simon a lovely compliment, saying he was one of the first to support her on this crazy journey she undertook and that she was grateful. She gave a great inspiring speech. She is NC’s not so secret young energetic weapon! I was proud to say hello on behalf of HC. Hug from NC ‘y’all’ ;-) and thanks
Whoohoo💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸!!!
How great to get to meet this firebrand in person, B.
I hope you got a hug with her or at least a selfie🤣 She seems to be becoming a sort of “ Rock Star” for the NC youth and NC youth vote. If we can help her win NC we all win! Thanks for representing HC for us.
Love these vibes Irene! I said to her ‘Sorry I may fan-girl (lol older lady really) I am part of Simon Rosenberg’s HC and we are so proud to support you’ She smiled so big and said ‘Oh Simon I got to say....’ then she shared her lovely comment. She seemed humble but confident and motivating, much like Simon, really. Such a positive communicator. She could have a career as a politician.... (but we need her to turn us blue first!) I didn’t get a selfie, but I recorded her speech. As I get more involved in my county dp in coming months, i hope I can meet her again. Maybe Simon will visit NC.... I would drive to see those two together! Anyway it was a thrill! Thanks for enjoying it with me Irene!!!! Hugs! Wahoo! :-)
Yes, she is a born leader with a big heart and a dynamic energy! I love her and she will bring this home along with all who get it!
Wait till she see we’re ( Hopium Community) is sending her $200k of support for all her hard work! She’ll be so excited. And will know how much we want to help her be successful!
I wonder if Simon will consider just letting us move up to bigger goal for NC ? 🤔🇺🇸
Thank you Suzanne! Hug from this NC voter!
So excited to see the fundraising totals and the impact that a year-old organization can have! Next time you report Simon, might you again include as you sometimes have in the past, the number of donations (because that is also impressive). But if too much trouble no worries!
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-19-2024
Heather featured it today.
Then there's this, sorry to say:https://www.thebulwark.com/p/october-7-turning-point-trump-fundraising
There is another great column from Heather Cox Richardson today.
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-20-2024