President Biden's Powerful Morehouse Speech, The ICC's Arrest Warrants, Supporting Anderson Clayton and North Carolina

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Happy Monday all. Got a few things for you today:

Biden’s Powerful Morehouse College Speech - Yesterday, President Biden gave what I think is one of the most important speeches of his Presidency. I encourage everyone here at Hopium to watch or read the whole speech. Some excerpts:

We gather on this Sunday morning because — if we were in church, perhaps there would be this reflection.  There would be a reflection about resurrection and redemption.  Remember, Jesus was buried on Friday, and it was Sunday — on Sunday he rose again.  But — but we don’t talk enough about Saturday, when the discip- — his disciples felt all hope was lost. 

In our lives and the lives of the nation, we have those Saturdays — to bear witness the day before glory, seeing people’s pain and not looking away.  But what work is done on Saturday to move pain to purpose?  How can faith get a man, get a nation through what was to come? 

Here’s what my faith has taught me. 

I was the first Biden to ever graduate from college, taking out loans with my dad and my — all through school to get me there.  My junior year spring break, I fell in love at first sight, literally, with a woman I adored.  I graduated from law school in her hometown, and I got married and took a job at a law firm in my hometown, Wilmington, Delaware.  But then everything changed. 

One of my heroes — and he was my hero — a Baptist minister, a Morehouse man, Dr. Martin Luther King — in April of my law school graduation year, he was murdered. 

My city of Wilmington — and we were a — to our great shame, a slave state, and we were segregated.  Delaware erupted into flames when he was assassinated, literally. 

We’re the only city in America where the National Guard patrolled every street corner for nine full months with drawn bayonets, the longest stretch in any American city since the Civil War. 

Dr. le- — Dr. King’s legacy had a profound impact on me and my generation, whether you’re Black or white.  I left the fancy law firm I had just joined and decided to become a public defender and then a county councilman, working to change our state’s politics to embrace the cause of civil rights. 

The Democratic Party in Delaware was a Southern Democratic Party at the time.  We wanted to change it to become a Northeastern Democratic Party. 

Then, we were trying to get someone to run for the United States Senate the year Nixon ran.  I was 29 years of age.  I had no notion of running — I love reading about everybody knew I was going to run; I didn’t know I was going to run — (laughter) — when a group of senior members of the Democratic Party came to me.  They couldn’t find anybody to run and said, “You should run.” 

Nixon won my state by 60 percent of the vote.  We won by 3,100 votes.  We won by the thinnest of margins but with a broad coalition, including students from the best HBCU in America, Delaware State University.  You guys are good, but — (laughter) — they got me elected.  And you all — you all think I’m kidding.  (Laughter.)  I’m not kidding…..

……But I also know some of you ask: What is democracy if we can’t stop wars that break out and break our hearts?

In a democracy, we debate and dissent about America’s role in the world. 

I want to say this very clearly.  I support peaceful, nonviolent protest.  Your voices should be heard, and I promise you I hear them.  I determined to make my c- — my administration look like America.  I have more African Americans in high places, including on the Court, than any president in American history — (applause) — because I need the input.

What’s happening in Gaza and Israel is heartbreaking.  Hamas’s vicious attack on Israel, killing innocent lives and holding people hostage.  I was there nine days after, s- — pictures of tying a mother and a daughter with a rope, pouring kerosene on them, burning them and watching as they died.  Innocent Palestinians caught in the middle of all this: men, women, and children killed or displaced in despite — in desperate need of water, food, and medicine.  It’s a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. 

That’s why I’ve called for an immediate ceasefire — an immediate ceasefire to stop the fighting — (applause) — bring the hostages home.  And I’ve been working on a deal as we speak, working around the clock to lead an international effort to get more aid into Gaza, rebuild Gaza.  

I’m also working around the clock for more than just one ceasefire.  I’m working to bring the region together.  I’m working to build a lasting, durable peace.  Because the question is, as you see what’s going on in Israel today: What after?  What after Hamas?  What happens then?  What happens in Gaza?  What rights do the Palestinian people have?  I’m working to make sure we finally get a two-state solution — the only solution — (applause) — for two people to live in peace, security, and dignity. 

This is one of the hardest, most complicated problems in the world.  And there’s nothing easy about it.  I know it angered and frustrates many of you, including my family.  But most of all, I know it breaks your heart.  It breaks mine as well. 

Leadership is about fighting through the most intractable problems.  It’s about challenging anger, frustration, and heartbreak to find a solution.  It’s about doing what you believe is right, even when it’s hard and lonely.

You’re all future leaders, every one of you graduating today.  And that’s not hyperbole.  You’re future leaders, all of you.  You’ll face complicated, tough moments.  In these moments, you’ll listen to others, but you’ll have to decide, guided by knowledge, conviction, principle, and your own moral compass.

And the desire to know what freedom is, what it can be is the heart and soul of why this college was founded in the first place, proving that a free nation is born in the hearts of men spellbound by freedom.  But the — that’s the magic of Morehouse.  That’s the magic of America.

But let’s be clear what happens to you and your family when old ghosts in new garments seize power, extremists come for the freedoms you thought belonged to you and everyone. 

Today in Georgia, they won’t allow water to be available to you while you wait in line to vote in an election.  What in the hell is that all about?  (Applause.)  I’m serious.  Think about it.  And then the constant attacks on Black election workers who count your vote.

Insurrectionists who storm the Capitol with Confederate flags are called “patriots” by some.  Not in my house.  (Applause.)  Black police officers, Black veterans protecting the Capitol were called another word, as you’ll recall. 

They also say out loud, these other groups, immigrants “poison the blood” of our country, like the Grand Wizard and fascists said in the past.  But you know and I know we all bleed the same color.  In America, we’re all created equal.  (Applause.)

Extremists close the doors of opportunity; strike down affirmative action; attack the values of diversity, equality, and inclusion. 

It was a powerful speech and an important moment in the Biden Presidency. Try to read or watch today.

The 2024 Election - I’d Much Rather Be Us Than Them - The President had a good political week last week - the Dow broke 40,000, inflation data was encouraging, we got the debates we wanted, the Morehouse speech received very positive reviews and our good month of polling continued.

As I wrote last week, the election is close and competitive now and recent data does not support the assertion that Trump is leading or is favored. More recent polls have Biden ahead than Trump, and the three most recent battleground state polls - CBS, Morning Consult, NYT Likely Voters - found MI, PA, WI within margin of error. Trump must be ahead in one of those three states to have a have a chance of winning the Electoral College and right now he doesn’t - thus it cannot be said he is leading. There are recent polls showing Biden leading in AZ, MI, WI. Two Republican polls released late last week - Fox and McLaughlin - each found Biden gaining 4 points this month, and another that has been working for right-leaning organizations, Redfield & Wilton, gave Biden his first lead in national polling this year. The NYT released a second poll last week showing Biden up 3. Our Senate polling remains very encouraging, early House polling does too, and we’ve gained 2 points in the Congressional Generic in recent months and consistently lead now.

I recorded a new Deep State Radio podcast with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan on Thursday. It’s a very good deep dive on the 2024 election. I found Tara’s comments, who is one of the top digital strategists on our side, about the current state of the battle on social media to be useful and smart. I also joined veteran radio host Thom Hartmann on Friday for an in-depth look at 2024.

Helpful posts from the past week - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them, Trump 2024 Is Weak Not Strong, America’s Start Up Boom, Dems Need A Big Reform and Renewal Agenda

Key themes we continue to explore:

• The main GOP attacks on Biden are evaporating and are losing their power

• Why Biden’s strength with likely voters matters, and how Dems just keep winning, Rs keep struggling

• Democrats have significant financial and organization advantages now

• The GOP’s “bad candidate” problems in the battleground states have returned

• Six new things voters are going to learn that will make it hard for Trump to win

I know there are many commentators who do not agree with my assessment of the election right now. That’s OK. Almost no one agreed with me in 2022 either. Part of how I got it right when almost everyone else got it wrong is that I heavily discounted the many GOP-aligned polls which consistently found the election to be 3-4 points more Republican than the bulk of public, independent polling. In 2022 if you looked at Real Clear Politics and all those Republican polls you saw a red wave. If you looked at all these other polls you saw a close, competitive election. To a degree that is happening again this year. You can look at current polling and see a 2024 red wave. Or you can look at what most of the polls are telling you and see a race that is close and competitive where I believe we are favored.

It is simply outside what the data tells us right now to say that Trump leads; recent polling trends are in my mind encouraging; we have enormous financial and organization advantages; we keep winning, they keep struggling; Joe Biden is a good President, the country is better off, and Trump and the GOP are the ugliest political thing we’ve ever seen.

But to be clear - we are not where we want to be, and have a lot of work to do. The work we have to do is in my mind within what a Presidential campaign can do. What they have to do - make that guy look like a serious Presidential candidate again - is far far harder.

Heads down, keep working hard all.

The ICC Warrants, Progress with Saudi Arabia, The Butcher of Tehran Dies - There is a great deal of news today…..Here’s CNN with the breaking news from the ICC:

NBC News on the death of the “Butcher of Tehran” -

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, known for enforcing brutal crackdowns on political opposition and seen as a potential successor to the supreme leader, has died in a helicopter crash landing in the country’s north, state media reported Monday. He was 63 years old.

Raisi, a conservative hard-line cleric, took office in August 2021 after several popular candidates were disqualified from the election, which had historically low turnout. He wore a black turban, symbolic of those who are descendants of the Prophet Muhammad.

Raisi, a conservative hard-line cleric, took office in August 2021 after several popular candidates were disqualified from the election, which had historically low turnout. He wore a black turban, symbolic of those who are descendants of the Prophet Muhammad.

His tenure included a crackdown on mass protests after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was killed in 2022, the enforcement of a strict women’s dress code, increased enrichment of uranium after the U.S. withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal and increased military tensions with Israel and the West as the regime supported Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Raisi was sometimes notably referred to as the “Butcher of Tehran,” as activists accused him of being one of the four judges who oversaw the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 after the Iran-Iraq war. Iran has never acknowledged what has been described as a massacre of an estimated 2,800 to 5,000 people, according to Human Rights Watch.

“As deputy prosecutor general of Tehran,” the U.S. Treasury Department said in a 2019 sanctions announcement, “Raisi participated in a so-called ‘death commission’ that ordered the extrajudicial executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988.”

CBS News on progress between the US and Saudi Arabia:

The United States and Saudi Arabia are "days away" from concluding the documents that would forge a historic bilateral agreement that has long been a top priority for President Joe Biden as it would begin a parallel track to normalize relations between the Kingdom and Israel, a source very familiar with the matter told CBS News on Sunday.

A U.S. official confirmed that a lot of progress was made Saturday in a meeting between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, a city in the kingdom's far east that's home to its state-run oil giant, the Saudi Arabian Oil Co. known as Saudi Aramco.

In a statement released overnight Saturday, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the draft agreement as "nearly final." 

The first component of the deal includes a series of agreements between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, including defense guarantees and civil nuclear cooperation. The Biden administration would solidify its ties to Saudi Arabia at a time when adversary China is attempting to expand its influence in the Middle East.

A second component would normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but that is contingent on a third complicated and aspirational component that would forge a pathway to a Palestinian state.

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Upcoming Events - Got a few things coming up:

• Wed, May 22nd, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register here.

• Thur, May 23rd, 730pm ET - Simon speaks to Northwest Bronx Indivisible via Zoom. Register here.

• Thur, June 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon

• Fri/Sat, June 28-29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit, Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register.

Do More, Worry Less - Please Support Anderson Clayton Today! - In recent days we’ve hit our fundraising goals for Biden-Harris ($250,000) and Ruben Gallego ($150,000). Thank you all! Today, I’d like your help hitting our next goal - $200,000 for Anderson Clayton and the NC Democratic Party. We only have a few more thousand to raise so please consider donating today.

I am very focused on AZ and NC this year as I think the extremism of their Republican top of the ticket candidates - Kari Lake and Mark Robinson - are giving us remarkable opportunities in each state, and winning either will almost certainly put the election away for Joe Biden. Investing in AZ and NC this year really matters and I think our heavy investments in both states have been strategic and wise.

Keep working hard all. It’s how we win - Simon