Biden's Reelect Begins, and I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them
The Monday Newsletter/Welcome New Subscribers!
It’s Monday! Here are things we are working on, thinking about:
Biden to Announce Reelection Tuesday - It appears President Biden will be announcing his re-election campaign tomorrow. I think it’s good the campaign begins now - allows us to start raising money, build the big machine that has to get built and also start taking it to MAGA more directly.
My assessment of the 2024 landscape at this point is that I would much rather be us than them for 3 primary reasons:
We have litigated MAGA in the battleground in the last 3 elections, and each time it has come up short. In 2022 we actually gained ground in 7 key states - AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA. And it is likely that the GOP nominee this time is going to be even more MAGA, more extreme than what we’ve seen in these last few elections.
Joe Biden has been a good President, the country is better off, and he will have a strong case for reelection.
Our grassroots is stronger than its ever been, and will continue to be a powerful weapon for us - providing unprecedented resources for our campaigns, helping provide the volunteers needed to drive turnout to the upper end of what is possible.
As folks here know I think there are two big things we must do in 2023 to make it more likely we win in 2024 -
do the work to expand our coalition, “get to 55” and launch a national youth voter registration campaign
get louder, win the big economic debate with the Republicans and get us into positive territory on the economy
Both are more likely now that the campaign has begun. My monthly political briefing, recorded last Thursday, goes a bit deeper into all of this if you haven’t watched it yet.
David Lauter of the LA Times has a new article out looking at Biden’s re-election prospects, and it contains this passage which I think sums up where we are now:
To start, Biden’s overall job approval rating, 43%, is not out of line with other presidents who won a second term. At this point in their first terms, Presidents Obama and Clinton each had 45% approval, President Reagan stood at 41%.
Each of those three saw their job approval numbers rise as the election drew closer — likely proof that voters agree with the sentiment of one of Biden’s signature lines: “Don’t judge me against the Almighty, judge me against the alternative.”
Ultimately, that’s the argument many Democrats believe will carry the day for Biden.
“MAGA has been litigated in three elections now, and it hasn’t worked,” Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said, referring to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan. “Republicans have struggled in the battleground states” in 2018, 2020 and 2022, he said. “It’s going to be an uphill climb for them.”
This graph we’ve been discussing in recent weeks is useful reminder that right now the GOP is at truly stunning levels of disapproval. Folks know MAGA, and just don’t want to go there. We can and should win next year.
Harvard Youth Poll - The Spring Harvard Youth was released this morning, and it has all sorts of interesting stuff in it, as always. Do take the time to review it, and we will be talking about it and the youth vote more in the coming weeks. My favorite chart from the poll:
Upcoming Events (follow this link for our full schedule of events)
Thurs, April 27th, 1pm EST - The Israeli Fight For Democracy: A View from Israel with Amir Tibon - Learn more, RSVP here.
Fri, April 28th, 12 pm EST - Hopium Chronicles Paid Subscriber Political Briefing and Hang Out With Simon - Learn more, RSVP here. Lots to talk about!
America’s Red Wavy Economic Discourse - In the Economist cover story I sent you a few weeks back, the article begins with a struggle to understand why Americans are so down on the economy when in fact over the past generation it has done so well:
Yet the anxiety obscures a stunning success story—one of enduring but underappreciated outperformance. America remains the world’s richest, most productive and most innovative big economy. By an impressive number of measures, it is leaving its peers ever further in the dust.
A central theme of our work here is that the discourse around the American economy is red wavy - that America is far better off today than is understood, and almost all of that progress has happened due to Democratic economic policies and governance. Just consider some points about Biden’s economic performance from my recent look at another strong monthly jobs report:
GDP growth over 3%, 3 times what it was under Trump
6 times as many Biden jobs as the last 3 GOP Presidents combined
best COVID recovery in G7
lowest unemployment rate in peacetime economy since WWII
lowest poverty/uninsured rates ever
very elevated wage gains/new business starts
2 job openings per unemployed person, a record
real earnings up in 2022
the deficit went up every year under Trump and has come down every year under Biden
domestic oil production on track to set records in 2023
historic investments in our future prosperity (infrastructure, CHIPs, climate, health care)
To get more grounded in this data do watch my newly released April With Democrats Things Get Better presentation, and review my recent take on the monthly jobs report. As folks know fighting this red-wavy economic frame of American “carnage” and decline is to me our highest narrative priority this year, the central thing we need to go on offense/get loud about.
Workshopping A New Agenda for Women and Families - A few weeks ago I asked our community to join me in workshopping what I’m calling (for now) “A New Agenda for Women and Families.” We’ve gotten a lot of great comments - thanks, everyone! Check out the original concept memo and weigh in if you haven’t yet. There is something here and I want to keep exploring it. This is an area where we need to go on offense now, not let the right continue to get there first and push us around. We can and must do better here.
Biden’s the favorite for reelection despite bad polls. How come? - The LA Times
Simon and Joy Reid Talk GOP Extremism - MSNBC’s The ReidOut
Twitter Takes Aim At Posts Which Link To Its Rival Substack - New York Times
Democrats Are Gaming Out How To Run Against An Indicted Trump - NBC News
Trump Indictment Marks New Volatile Chapter In American Politics - Time
‘New Democrat’ Who Called 2022 Right Targets MAGA - Washington Examiner
Why Hopium Chronicles? If you are new here be sure to read my welcome statement and Ron Brownstein’s interview with me in the Atlantic. Together they do a good job of explaining why I’m shuttering NDN and setting up shop here. For those who like podcasts this interview I did with How We Win is also a very good introduction to what we are trying to do here.
Note there’s s a lot of material on the H/C site itself as I have brought some of my work over the past two decades along with me. Do explore. There is a lot of good stuff here.
Happy Monday All! Keep working hard - Simon
Even if Biden weren't running, we'd still have to contend with super negative narratives. They're so predictable. "Wide open field lays bare Dem divisions"... "Can this woman candidate do better than Hillary"... "Too young"..."Too woke"... "Too old"... "Too moderate"...
We know the narrative on this one. "Too old" and too boring for over-caffeinated 24/7 media and political obsessives. Which, I think, by lowering expectations, sets Biden up to continually "surprise" us. As he does regularly.
Leading up to every historic legislative and electoral victory we get mired in the "Biden's not popular and doesn't know what he's doing and his voters are uninspired" narrative. Then he racks up another big win. Every time.
Yes, this is all true, but we also have to re-learn how to talk with non college educated workers and rural people in ways that show respect, which requires that we do more than tell them why Dem's Joe Biden are better than Republicans. We have to be able to communicate that we care about them,the culture and their issues, and distance ourselves from what the Democratic Party and the left have been doing since the 70's