Please accept a friendly observation: the "House GOP Are Underwater" chart is well-done and encouraging, but I think you buried the lead - the Republican's undeserved high marks for the economy. I note that you circled in green and labelled the "% top four issues" cited by 29-52% of respondents, and that the GOP is deep underwater on the four you circled - net negative 12-20%. But in fact the number two of the top four - and which you did not circle in green - is "Jobs and the Economy", cited by 44% of respondents (higher than 3 of the 4 you circled), and where the Republicans get their highest mark: net zero (pun intended). Issue number 1, cited by 52% of respondents is Inflation, where Republican net disapproval is 15%. This relatively high mark on the Economy and negative on Inflation is contradictory, and highlights your frequently cited point about Republicans getting positive marks on the economy in spite of evidence to the contrary. So why didn't you circle "Jobs and the Economy" in green, and bury the lead about our need to go on offense/get loud about informing voters that Republicans are actually terrible at the economy ?
Good points in this piece. But aren't the GOP's massive structural advantages going to be a problem for Biden (and all Dems)? We don't just have to get more votes - we need to win the national vote *by a LOT* in order to narrowly carry the Electoral College and have even the slightest hope in the Senate.
To put some numbers to this: suppose Biden wins the popular vote in 2024 by something like a 50-48 margin. That's a nice improvement both from current approval ratings and from the national environment in 2022. Horribly, based on 2020's state-level partisan leans, a D+2 national environment in 2024 would translate into ~312 Electoral votes (!) and ~57 Senate seats (!!) for the GOP - in other words, MAGA would win a gigantic governing trifecta despite losing by millions of votes nationwide. The GOP coalition is numerically smaller than ours, but it is very efficiently distributed and massively overrepresented by our political system.
Doesn't the Electoral College make Dems underdogs in pretty much every presidential year? As we go into 2024 shouldn't we have a more realistic, clear-eyed view of the gigantic structural disadvantages we need to overcome?
Hi Simon, I am starting to hear, again, the 'Sleepy Joe' discourse. I know this is something the Republicans have made sure that it doesn't go away - with doctored YouTube videos and on social media platforms. How can we get ahead of this? We know Joe has been a great President, you've got the data. That does not dispel this discourse. I've also been hearing his age is an issue. I want to be able to push back on this in a meaningful way, a way that will work. Thanks!
Thank you so very much!! I appreciate all the HOPE that emanates from your postings. It is time for hope and confidence in democracy and in Democrats. Your pictures are lovely and spot-on. N
Even if Biden weren't running, we'd still have to contend with super negative narratives. They're so predictable. "Wide open field lays bare Dem divisions"... "Can this woman candidate do better than Hillary"... "Too young"..."Too woke"... "Too old"... "Too moderate"...
We know the narrative on this one. "Too old" and too boring for over-caffeinated 24/7 media and political obsessives. Which, I think, by lowering expectations, sets Biden up to continually "surprise" us. As he does regularly.
Leading up to every historic legislative and electoral victory we get mired in the "Biden's not popular and doesn't know what he's doing and his voters are uninspired" narrative. Then he racks up another big win. Every time.
Yes, this is all true, but we also have to re-learn how to talk with non college educated workers and rural people in ways that show respect, which requires that we do more than tell them why Dem's Joe Biden are better than Republicans. We have to be able to communicate that we care about them,the culture and their issues, and distance ourselves from what the Democratic Party and the left have been doing since the 70's
There's some really great information in the recently-released, 45th Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll including that most young Americans support policies that make voting easier/more accessible, including 57% who support automatic voter registration and 54% who support sending ballots to every voter by mail!
And that fewer than half (42%) of young Americans who grew up in conservative households call themselves Republicans today. While for those who grew up in liberal households, 60% still identify as Democrats.
Overall, in the last decade, Harvard's youth poll has tracked "a significant shift toward young Americans favoring more progressive government interventions including on health insurance, poverty reduction, and curbing climate change."
But there is one stat of note regarding the economy - and a reminder of the critical work ahead:
Hi Simon - love your work, just have one request: might you be able to do some future events during non-workweek hours, like an evening or weekend? It would make it easier for working stiffs like me to participate. Thanks for listening and considering this.
Excellent summary of next steps and the actual record Biden should run on - thank you.
In comparison, what is the cheeto criminal's record? Twice impeached, coup attempt that this week started in 2/2020, wholly incompetent anti-science COVID response...for starters.
I attended the event on the 28th at noon. I appreciate your optimism (you obviously do not live in Ohio). You need to have Marc Elias, Democracy Docket, on one of your programs. We should win the vote in 2024, but litigation will follow and the Rs will be better at this time than the in 2020 and the Rs are already building the case for fraud and illegal votes. We need to be ready for this. Thank you.
Why is the media slamming Biden's reelection chances? I am seriously interested on Mr. Rosenberg's take on this.
Please accept a friendly observation: the "House GOP Are Underwater" chart is well-done and encouraging, but I think you buried the lead - the Republican's undeserved high marks for the economy. I note that you circled in green and labelled the "% top four issues" cited by 29-52% of respondents, and that the GOP is deep underwater on the four you circled - net negative 12-20%. But in fact the number two of the top four - and which you did not circle in green - is "Jobs and the Economy", cited by 44% of respondents (higher than 3 of the 4 you circled), and where the Republicans get their highest mark: net zero (pun intended). Issue number 1, cited by 52% of respondents is Inflation, where Republican net disapproval is 15%. This relatively high mark on the Economy and negative on Inflation is contradictory, and highlights your frequently cited point about Republicans getting positive marks on the economy in spite of evidence to the contrary. So why didn't you circle "Jobs and the Economy" in green, and bury the lead about our need to go on offense/get loud about informing voters that Republicans are actually terrible at the economy ?
Good points in this piece. But aren't the GOP's massive structural advantages going to be a problem for Biden (and all Dems)? We don't just have to get more votes - we need to win the national vote *by a LOT* in order to narrowly carry the Electoral College and have even the slightest hope in the Senate.
To put some numbers to this: suppose Biden wins the popular vote in 2024 by something like a 50-48 margin. That's a nice improvement both from current approval ratings and from the national environment in 2022. Horribly, based on 2020's state-level partisan leans, a D+2 national environment in 2024 would translate into ~312 Electoral votes (!) and ~57 Senate seats (!!) for the GOP - in other words, MAGA would win a gigantic governing trifecta despite losing by millions of votes nationwide. The GOP coalition is numerically smaller than ours, but it is very efficiently distributed and massively overrepresented by our political system.
Doesn't the Electoral College make Dems underdogs in pretty much every presidential year? As we go into 2024 shouldn't we have a more realistic, clear-eyed view of the gigantic structural disadvantages we need to overcome?
FYI Tucker Carlson is leaving Foxhttps://nbc-2.com/news/2023/04/24/tucker-carlson-out-at-fox-news-network-confirms/
Hi Simon, I am starting to hear, again, the 'Sleepy Joe' discourse. I know this is something the Republicans have made sure that it doesn't go away - with doctored YouTube videos and on social media platforms. How can we get ahead of this? We know Joe has been a great President, you've got the data. That does not dispel this discourse. I've also been hearing his age is an issue. I want to be able to push back on this in a meaningful way, a way that will work. Thanks!
Thank you so very much!! I appreciate all the HOPE that emanates from your postings. It is time for hope and confidence in democracy and in Democrats. Your pictures are lovely and spot-on. N
Even if Biden weren't running, we'd still have to contend with super negative narratives. They're so predictable. "Wide open field lays bare Dem divisions"... "Can this woman candidate do better than Hillary"... "Too young"..."Too woke"... "Too old"... "Too moderate"...
We know the narrative on this one. "Too old" and too boring for over-caffeinated 24/7 media and political obsessives. Which, I think, by lowering expectations, sets Biden up to continually "surprise" us. As he does regularly.
Leading up to every historic legislative and electoral victory we get mired in the "Biden's not popular and doesn't know what he's doing and his voters are uninspired" narrative. Then he racks up another big win. Every time.
Yes, this is all true, but we also have to re-learn how to talk with non college educated workers and rural people in ways that show respect, which requires that we do more than tell them why Dem's Joe Biden are better than Republicans. We have to be able to communicate that we care about them,the culture and their issues, and distance ourselves from what the Democratic Party and the left have been doing since the 70's
I attended your Swing Blue talk. Dem messaging needs to be exactly what I posted today on
https://www.tiktok.com/@wontbesilent/video/7225640814548962603
There's some really great information in the recently-released, 45th Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll including that most young Americans support policies that make voting easier/more accessible, including 57% who support automatic voter registration and 54% who support sending ballots to every voter by mail!
And that fewer than half (42%) of young Americans who grew up in conservative households call themselves Republicans today. While for those who grew up in liberal households, 60% still identify as Democrats.
Overall, in the last decade, Harvard's youth poll has tracked "a significant shift toward young Americans favoring more progressive government interventions including on health insurance, poverty reduction, and curbing climate change."
But there is one stat of note regarding the economy - and a reminder of the critical work ahead:
https://twitter.com/HarvardIOP/status/1650484641638260736?s=20
Hi Simon - love your work, just have one request: might you be able to do some future events during non-workweek hours, like an evening or weekend? It would make it easier for working stiffs like me to participate. Thanks for listening and considering this.
Mr. Rosenberg - don't forget lowest black unemployment in 50 years! That is not an incidental achievement. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/07/black-unemployment-rate-record-low/
Excellent summary of next steps and the actual record Biden should run on - thank you.
In comparison, what is the cheeto criminal's record? Twice impeached, coup attempt that this week started in 2/2020, wholly incompetent anti-science COVID response...for starters.
Simon,
I attended the event on the 28th at noon. I appreciate your optimism (you obviously do not live in Ohio). You need to have Marc Elias, Democracy Docket, on one of your programs. We should win the vote in 2024, but litigation will follow and the Rs will be better at this time than the in 2020 and the Rs are already building the case for fraud and illegal votes. We need to be ready for this. Thank you.