Please accept a friendly observation: the "House GOP Are Underwater" chart is well-done and encouraging, but I think you buried the lead - the Republican's undeserved high marks for the economy. I note that you circled in green and labelled the "% top four issues" cited by 29-52% of respondents, and that the GOP is deep underwater on the four you circled - net negative 12-20%. But in fact the number two of the top four - and which you did not circle in green - is "Jobs and the Economy", cited by 44% of respondents (higher than 3 of the 4 you circled), and where the Republicans get their highest mark: net zero (pun intended). Issue number 1, cited by 52% of respondents is Inflation, where Republican net disapproval is 15%. This relatively high mark on the Economy and negative on Inflation is contradictory, and highlights your frequently cited point about Republicans getting positive marks on the economy in spite of evidence to the contrary. So why didn't you circle "Jobs and the Economy" in green, and bury the lead about our need to go on offense/get loud about informing voters that Republicans are actually terrible at the economy ?
Good points in this piece. But aren't the GOP's massive structural advantages going to be a problem for Biden (and all Dems)? We don't just have to get more votes - we need to win the national vote *by a LOT* in order to narrowly carry the Electoral College and have even the slightest hope in the Senate.
To put some numbers to this: suppose Biden wins the popular vote in 2024 by something like a 50-48 margin. That's a nice improvement both from current approval ratings and from the national environment in 2022. Horribly, based on 2020's state-level partisan leans, a D+2 national environment in 2024 would translate into ~312 Electoral votes (!) and ~57 Senate seats (!!) for the GOP - in other words, MAGA would win a gigantic governing trifecta despite losing by millions of votes nationwide. The GOP coalition is numerically smaller than ours, but it is very efficiently distributed and massively overrepresented by our political system.
Doesn't the Electoral College make Dems underdogs in pretty much every presidential year? As we go into 2024 shouldn't we have a more realistic, clear-eyed view of the gigantic structural disadvantages we need to overcome?
I encourage you to find Simon’s GET TO 55 video on his YouTube where he addresses exactly what you discuss here. Happy watching! https://youtu.be/HI6u09T__zE
I hope this is right. There exists - at least in potentia - a big enough anti-MAGA majority to erase the GOP's 2016-2020 advantage in the battlegrounds. And you're right that consolidating this majority to a 55% vote share is and should be our priority.
I do still think we should take nothing for granted in the battlegrounds and work as if we're down 5 points no matter what the polls say. And there is still some risk from that bloc of difficult-to-poll, low-trust, socially conservative voters who turn out for Trump in particular.
But the battlegrounds are definitely winnable and we should fight like hell to do so, for the sake of everything we believe in!
I do think this overall is a good move for our democracy, I am not naive and think he is going to disappear. Likely he will land somewhere, but with a less ‘captive’ audience. And that is the positive here. Who knows the circumstances, but the fact this comes days after Dominion settlement and more suits coming.... I bet the BOARD of Trustees at FOX, are forcing change for the sake of the longterm health of the network and Murdoch & Sons may be along for the ride, willingly or not. Regardless, this will shake more viewers loose, so Info Warriors, talk about this at lunch or with family and neighbors. Suggest more fact based news sources. This is a OPPORTUNITY to start a perhaps enlightening convo with someone who may/may not be Maga but was addicted to Fox. It is a foot in the door, to a new understanding and some hope for those we love who are stuck.
Hi Simon, I am starting to hear, again, the 'Sleepy Joe' discourse. I know this is something the Republicans have made sure that it doesn't go away - with doctored YouTube videos and on social media platforms. How can we get ahead of this? We know Joe has been a great President, you've got the data. That does not dispel this discourse. I've also been hearing his age is an issue. I want to be able to push back on this in a meaningful way, a way that will work. Thanks!
Most important thing we can do now is tell our story as loudly as we possibly can. Need to go on offense, be loud. Campaign starting will help with that. Attacks are going to come, and we will respond. But we need to control what we can control and that is first and foremost talking about how much better off the country is to due to Joe Biden.
The right has painted Biden as incompetent since before he won the presidency (Basement Joe), and especially likes to think he's old and doddering. The way to push back is to show how he isn't old and doddering by talking about how he has handled specific issues with no sign of debilitation. But you must be specific. Biden was on top of the Ukraine invasion from the beginning, helping other nations formulate their response. Leaders of other nations aren't going to take the advice of someone old and doddering. Etc. Biden's age is a concern because he's old. But he's fine now and there's no indication he won't be fine going forward.
Wish I could take credit for this but I saw it on the blue bird this morning. When hearing the 'old', 'incompetent' garbage remind them of Joe's castration of the GOP at the State of The Union address in Jan on their attempt of privitizing social security & medicare. It was perfection!
I personally do not hold someone's number of years alive against them. What is important is how competant, physically fit, mentally fit, overall health and agile they are. Another factor is how current or 'old' their ideas are. And of course factor in how successful their Presidency has been.
Thank you so very much!! I appreciate all the HOPE that emanates from your postings. It is time for hope and confidence in democracy and in Democrats. Your pictures are lovely and spot-on. N
Even if Biden weren't running, we'd still have to contend with super negative narratives. They're so predictable. "Wide open field lays bare Dem divisions"... "Can this woman candidate do better than Hillary"... "Too young"..."Too woke"... "Too old"... "Too moderate"...
We know the narrative on this one. "Too old" and too boring for over-caffeinated 24/7 media and political obsessives. Which, I think, by lowering expectations, sets Biden up to continually "surprise" us. As he does regularly.
Leading up to every historic legislative and electoral victory we get mired in the "Biden's not popular and doesn't know what he's doing and his voters are uninspired" narrative. Then he racks up another big win. Every time.
Exactly, damned if you do, and damned if you don't. What we all have to be disciplined about is not treating politics as a horse-race -- which is how the media forces us to respond to this.
What needs to be made clear is that elections are about the existential stakes (outcomes) for our American way of life from choosing one candidate over another—rather than the odds (betting chances) of one candidate winning or not.
Consider how much better off America is under a Biden—regardless of his age, vs. an America ruled by a criminal defendant, whose intent in encouraging a violent and deadly attack against his own country was to overturn the will of the voters, and who (along with his supporters) continues to advocate to end free & fair elections just to ensure minority rule, for the wealthy, well-connected few.
Yes, this is all true, but we also have to re-learn how to talk with non college educated workers and rural people in ways that show respect, which requires that we do more than tell them why Dem's Joe Biden are better than Republicans. We have to be able to communicate that we care about them,the culture and their issues, and distance ourselves from what the Democratic Party and the left have been doing since the 70's
Coming up with popular and accurate slogans would be a help. "Defund the police" was an absolute messaging nightmare. When progressives explained what it meant, it sounded like a good policy, but the slogan itself suggested progressives wanted to punish the police and make streets less safe.
There's some really great information in the recently-released, 45th Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll including that most young Americans support policies that make voting easier/more accessible, including 57% who support automatic voter registration and 54% who support sending ballots to every voter by mail!
And that fewer than half (42%) of young Americans who grew up in conservative households call themselves Republicans today. While for those who grew up in liberal households, 60% still identify as Democrats.
Overall, in the last decade, Harvard's youth poll has tracked "a significant shift toward young Americans favoring more progressive government interventions including on health insurance, poverty reduction, and curbing climate change."
But there is one stat of note regarding the economy - and a reminder of the critical work ahead:
Hi Simon - love your work, just have one request: might you be able to do some future events during non-workweek hours, like an evening or weekend? It would make it easier for working stiffs like me to participate. Thanks for listening and considering this.
Excellent summary of next steps and the actual record Biden should run on - thank you.
In comparison, what is the cheeto criminal's record? Twice impeached, coup attempt that this week started in 2/2020, wholly incompetent anti-science COVID response...for starters.
I attended the event on the 28th at noon. I appreciate your optimism (you obviously do not live in Ohio). You need to have Marc Elias, Democracy Docket, on one of your programs. We should win the vote in 2024, but litigation will follow and the Rs will be better at this time than the in 2020 and the Rs are already building the case for fraud and illegal votes. We need to be ready for this. Thank you.
Why is the media slamming Biden's reelection chances? I am seriously interested on Mr. Rosenberg's take on this.
Please accept a friendly observation: the "House GOP Are Underwater" chart is well-done and encouraging, but I think you buried the lead - the Republican's undeserved high marks for the economy. I note that you circled in green and labelled the "% top four issues" cited by 29-52% of respondents, and that the GOP is deep underwater on the four you circled - net negative 12-20%. But in fact the number two of the top four - and which you did not circle in green - is "Jobs and the Economy", cited by 44% of respondents (higher than 3 of the 4 you circled), and where the Republicans get their highest mark: net zero (pun intended). Issue number 1, cited by 52% of respondents is Inflation, where Republican net disapproval is 15%. This relatively high mark on the Economy and negative on Inflation is contradictory, and highlights your frequently cited point about Republicans getting positive marks on the economy in spite of evidence to the contrary. So why didn't you circle "Jobs and the Economy" in green, and bury the lead about our need to go on offense/get loud about informing voters that Republicans are actually terrible at the economy ?
Good points in this piece. But aren't the GOP's massive structural advantages going to be a problem for Biden (and all Dems)? We don't just have to get more votes - we need to win the national vote *by a LOT* in order to narrowly carry the Electoral College and have even the slightest hope in the Senate.
To put some numbers to this: suppose Biden wins the popular vote in 2024 by something like a 50-48 margin. That's a nice improvement both from current approval ratings and from the national environment in 2022. Horribly, based on 2020's state-level partisan leans, a D+2 national environment in 2024 would translate into ~312 Electoral votes (!) and ~57 Senate seats (!!) for the GOP - in other words, MAGA would win a gigantic governing trifecta despite losing by millions of votes nationwide. The GOP coalition is numerically smaller than ours, but it is very efficiently distributed and massively overrepresented by our political system.
Doesn't the Electoral College make Dems underdogs in pretty much every presidential year? As we go into 2024 shouldn't we have a more realistic, clear-eyed view of the gigantic structural disadvantages we need to overcome?
I encourage you to find Simon’s GET TO 55 video on his YouTube where he addresses exactly what you discuss here. Happy watching! https://youtu.be/HI6u09T__zE
We have the structural advantage in the battleground. See this - https://simonwdc.substack.com/p/memo-get-to-55-expanding-our-coalition
These 2020 numbers don't apply any more. Dobbs happened, and we had an election in 2022 and everything got worse for them. S
I hope this is right. There exists - at least in potentia - a big enough anti-MAGA majority to erase the GOP's 2016-2020 advantage in the battlegrounds. And you're right that consolidating this majority to a 55% vote share is and should be our priority.
I do still think we should take nothing for granted in the battlegrounds and work as if we're down 5 points no matter what the polls say. And there is still some risk from that bloc of difficult-to-poll, low-trust, socially conservative voters who turn out for Trump in particular.
But the battlegrounds are definitely winnable and we should fight like hell to do so, for the sake of everything we believe in!
There is no GOP advantage to erase in the battlegrounds. We have the advantage there. They have to erase our advantage.
FYI Tucker Carlson is leaving Foxhttps://nbc-2.com/news/2023/04/24/tucker-carlson-out-at-fox-news-network-confirms/
I do think this overall is a good move for our democracy, I am not naive and think he is going to disappear. Likely he will land somewhere, but with a less ‘captive’ audience. And that is the positive here. Who knows the circumstances, but the fact this comes days after Dominion settlement and more suits coming.... I bet the BOARD of Trustees at FOX, are forcing change for the sake of the longterm health of the network and Murdoch & Sons may be along for the ride, willingly or not. Regardless, this will shake more viewers loose, so Info Warriors, talk about this at lunch or with family and neighbors. Suggest more fact based news sources. This is a OPPORTUNITY to start a perhaps enlightening convo with someone who may/may not be Maga but was addicted to Fox. It is a foot in the door, to a new understanding and some hope for those we love who are stuck.
Peace, share and act.
Hi Simon, I am starting to hear, again, the 'Sleepy Joe' discourse. I know this is something the Republicans have made sure that it doesn't go away - with doctored YouTube videos and on social media platforms. How can we get ahead of this? We know Joe has been a great President, you've got the data. That does not dispel this discourse. I've also been hearing his age is an issue. I want to be able to push back on this in a meaningful way, a way that will work. Thanks!
Most important thing we can do now is tell our story as loudly as we possibly can. Need to go on offense, be loud. Campaign starting will help with that. Attacks are going to come, and we will respond. But we need to control what we can control and that is first and foremost talking about how much better off the country is to due to Joe Biden.
The right has painted Biden as incompetent since before he won the presidency (Basement Joe), and especially likes to think he's old and doddering. The way to push back is to show how he isn't old and doddering by talking about how he has handled specific issues with no sign of debilitation. But you must be specific. Biden was on top of the Ukraine invasion from the beginning, helping other nations formulate their response. Leaders of other nations aren't going to take the advice of someone old and doddering. Etc. Biden's age is a concern because he's old. But he's fine now and there's no indication he won't be fine going forward.
Wish I could take credit for this but I saw it on the blue bird this morning. When hearing the 'old', 'incompetent' garbage remind them of Joe's castration of the GOP at the State of The Union address in Jan on their attempt of privitizing social security & medicare. It was perfection!
I personally do not hold someone's number of years alive against them. What is important is how competant, physically fit, mentally fit, overall health and agile they are. Another factor is how current or 'old' their ideas are. And of course factor in how successful their Presidency has been.
Thank you so very much!! I appreciate all the HOPE that emanates from your postings. It is time for hope and confidence in democracy and in Democrats. Your pictures are lovely and spot-on. N
Even if Biden weren't running, we'd still have to contend with super negative narratives. They're so predictable. "Wide open field lays bare Dem divisions"... "Can this woman candidate do better than Hillary"... "Too young"..."Too woke"... "Too old"... "Too moderate"...
We know the narrative on this one. "Too old" and too boring for over-caffeinated 24/7 media and political obsessives. Which, I think, by lowering expectations, sets Biden up to continually "surprise" us. As he does regularly.
Leading up to every historic legislative and electoral victory we get mired in the "Biden's not popular and doesn't know what he's doing and his voters are uninspired" narrative. Then he racks up another big win. Every time.
Excellent point!
Exactly, damned if you do, and damned if you don't. What we all have to be disciplined about is not treating politics as a horse-race -- which is how the media forces us to respond to this.
What needs to be made clear is that elections are about the existential stakes (outcomes) for our American way of life from choosing one candidate over another—rather than the odds (betting chances) of one candidate winning or not.
Consider how much better off America is under a Biden—regardless of his age, vs. an America ruled by a criminal defendant, whose intent in encouraging a violent and deadly attack against his own country was to overturn the will of the voters, and who (along with his supporters) continues to advocate to end free & fair elections just to ensure minority rule, for the wealthy, well-connected few.
Yes, this is all true, but we also have to re-learn how to talk with non college educated workers and rural people in ways that show respect, which requires that we do more than tell them why Dem's Joe Biden are better than Republicans. We have to be able to communicate that we care about them,the culture and their issues, and distance ourselves from what the Democratic Party and the left have been doing since the 70's
Thanks,Steve.I’m also struggling with this…
Coming up with popular and accurate slogans would be a help. "Defund the police" was an absolute messaging nightmare. When progressives explained what it meant, it sounded like a good policy, but the slogan itself suggested progressives wanted to punish the police and make streets less safe.
I attended your Swing Blue talk. Dem messaging needs to be exactly what I posted today on
https://www.tiktok.com/@wontbesilent/video/7225640814548962603
Abe told it plain for sure! Thanks for sharing
There's some really great information in the recently-released, 45th Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll including that most young Americans support policies that make voting easier/more accessible, including 57% who support automatic voter registration and 54% who support sending ballots to every voter by mail!
And that fewer than half (42%) of young Americans who grew up in conservative households call themselves Republicans today. While for those who grew up in liberal households, 60% still identify as Democrats.
Overall, in the last decade, Harvard's youth poll has tracked "a significant shift toward young Americans favoring more progressive government interventions including on health insurance, poverty reduction, and curbing climate change."
But there is one stat of note regarding the economy - and a reminder of the critical work ahead:
https://twitter.com/HarvardIOP/status/1650484641638260736?s=20
Hi Simon - love your work, just have one request: might you be able to do some future events during non-workweek hours, like an evening or weekend? It would make it easier for working stiffs like me to participate. Thanks for listening and considering this.
Yes is the short answer. Look for more evening events starting next month.
Mr. Rosenberg - don't forget lowest black unemployment in 50 years! That is not an incidental achievement. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/07/black-unemployment-rate-record-low/
Excellent summary of next steps and the actual record Biden should run on - thank you.
In comparison, what is the cheeto criminal's record? Twice impeached, coup attempt that this week started in 2/2020, wholly incompetent anti-science COVID response...for starters.
Simon,
I attended the event on the 28th at noon. I appreciate your optimism (you obviously do not live in Ohio). You need to have Marc Elias, Democracy Docket, on one of your programs. We should win the vote in 2024, but litigation will follow and the Rs will be better at this time than the in 2020 and the Rs are already building the case for fraud and illegal votes. We need to be ready for this. Thank you.