This 15-week abortion “compromise” message (aka it’s not a ban!”) that Youngkin and his cronies have been pitching has got me nervous for VA tomorrow. If for some reason it succeeds, then I fear Trump will start framing abortion as an issue that just needs to be “negotiated” between both parties rather than a flagrant violation of women’s’ rights which IT IS ....
Thank you, Simon, for saying loudly and clearly how we can make progress in the Middle East. "BIBI MUST GO." Americans broadly support the state of Israel and its people. Many do not support its current government, military and warfare strategy. From your mouth to God's ears, Bibi must go!
Is it safe to say that a poll means nothing unless you know WHO was polled? If it is a GOP registered voters list, the numbers will be very different from a Dem voters list. Is there a way to know how random a poll is? I assume random would be most accurate?
My other question is, What/Who is it who has contact with voters and can actually influence them? My contacts are few and local and probably largely similar leanings. I wonder if I can do more, locally.
I have several thoughts here. First, I suspect the NYT's polling model is stuck in old methodologies that overcount conservative voters and undercount liberal ones. That's why their polling is so skewed and inaccurate regarding actual electoral results. It's not just the NYT with this distortion but the same applies to older polling organizations and especially the RW ones.
Second, the mainstream media and right-wing propaganda machine keep promoting narratives that the economy is "bad" even though the actual data is clearly the opposite. I believe that explains the dissonance where polls show people are saying their personal financial situations are good while simultaneously believing the overall economy is terrible. Right now, there seems to be some foggy brain lock with many people about the economy which requires us and Democratic party to cut through as we head in the 2024.
Finally, I want to echo Simon's straightforward focus on highlighting the good that the Biden administration is accomplishing. As he consistently states, we have to become information warriors to counter the garbage, lies, and BS that's floating around. More importantly, we have to talk ourselves down and stop panicking every time a bad poll comes out. A poll is a current day snapshot, not a hard predictor of far off electoral outcomes. Let's allocate our time, resources, and especially our minds on what to do versus worrying and freaking out whenever something negative comes up.
I am so appreciative for your seasoned comments about the polls. Truly helpful - thank you.
That said, by putting out this story about Biden and bad polls 2 days before election, the NYTimes is -- once again -- underhandedly trying to influence the Nov. 7 voting. One could make a case that the bad news might motivate Democrat voters more, but its equally if not more likely that folks will be discouraged and stay away from the polls, or decide they're not going to back someone (or their party) who's a "loser". I can't believe their prejudicial timing. I will write another letter to the Editor -- not that hearing from people seems to have any effect on their destruction of Democracy. I'm beyond despair about main stream media . . .
Regarding Bibi, I am wondering if he is ignoring Sec. Blinken's ask for a humanitarian pause to appease his right wing coalition, but also to eventually turn Americans against Biden and toward Trump (some Jews are turning to Fox News because of its positive stories on the war). I know the polls are not showing this yet but am worried it will change.
Was just thinking the same thing this morning about Bibi. He's a disaster for the state of Israel and needs to go. Also, we're stuck in a news cycle with good reason with the war in Israel which I think is hurting Biden's numbers at the moment. Believe that will change in the coming months. I hope I'm right. Keeping the faith!
I've been looking for a link to text for candidates. As I'm having massive dental work done and don't trust my ability to speak well, along with living in Alaska were calls can get dropped, texting is a better way for me to contact people.
I agree with you that the Prime Minister of Israel should resign, immediately. He and the other strongman, who moved the American Embassy to Jerusalem, have proven to the world what a mistake is made when they are voted into the highest offices in the land. They seek power and self-grandeur, and are therefore blind to the impact of their policies on their people and the world.
I also agree with Barack Obama when he said that we all have our hands in the Hamas-Israel War. The US should note dole out large amounts of money to Israel with no strings attached. As Israel has grown to an imposing power, and as they have colonized parts of Palestine, they have grown from a democratic country to a monster, an image of what they fled from in Germany.
I believe that America should support Israel, however the killing in Palestine has reached beyond my tolerance. They need to stop the rockets and allow Palestinians to move to the south, for a short period of time, as their ground forces root out Hamas. Once Hamas is gone then Palestinians should be allowed to return to all their country. The Israelis should move out from Palestine. Let them grow a country of peace with prosperity for all.
Polling says voters believe Trump would be better on the economy than Trump. This is partly a result of the Republican propaganda machine, but even more the result that the American public can be easily conned. Trump conned them in 2016, he conned them in 2020 (or he would have been even farther behind), and he's conning them now. His entire career has been a con and it doesn't seem to matter to half of the electorate. The American electorate I mean.
And the NYT likes Trump for being a newsmaker. Bad news sells papers, and we're in for a tsunami of bad news if he becomes President.
When it comes to polling, I remind myself that 75 million people voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and very few if any were polled. He has won the hearts of many Americans and it's hard to believe that somehow those same people will turn on him in 2023. But we have to keep reminding them of his accomplishments because we Americans have a short attentions span. Nothing is guaranteed.
Younger voters need to be mentored and encouraged to vote. Respect the young generation and their opinions. They may not have the same ideas as you, but they are the future and will take the world on their way. Give advice, not criticize, and try to remind them that yesterday's wisdom still applies today.
I totally agree that Bibi must go, and I am fully confident that he will be gone, sooner rather than later. He is basically toast at this point. Agreeing to an emergency coalition government and sidelining the most extreme members of his cabinet were desperation measures to hang on to power in whatever form he can (remember that, like Trump, he has his own legal troubles). He campaigned on one central message: "I will keep you safe." He is trying to blame October 7 on military and intelligence failures, but he is fooling no one. Everyone in Israel has been directly affected by this -- it is a small country, and every single person is connected in some way to someone who was murdered and/or taken hostage. When ultra-orthodox young men start volunteering for military service (they are exempt under current law), you know that something has fundamentally shifted.
I am recommending readers make liberal use of Simon's work when commenting in other publications. I am a prolific commenter in the New York Times. Posting Simon's work gets an immediate posting. Immediate. It's another great way to get his work out there. And nothing beats the junk people write in a comments section like facts and data. It is often that someone will respond to what I have posted and say thanks for the information. I refer them to Simon's Hopium.
I’ve been watching Bloomberg news and every segment shoe horns these polls. The Bloomberg poll was bad too. I am really depressed but I am just focusing on tomorrow’s election.
I'm glad you said that about Bibi. As far as I can tell, people on the far-right fail people 90 percent of the time. All the more reason to defeat MAGA in the US.
This 15-week abortion “compromise” message (aka it’s not a ban!”) that Youngkin and his cronies have been pitching has got me nervous for VA tomorrow. If for some reason it succeeds, then I fear Trump will start framing abortion as an issue that just needs to be “negotiated” between both parties rather than a flagrant violation of women’s’ rights which IT IS ....
Thank you, Simon, for saying loudly and clearly how we can make progress in the Middle East. "BIBI MUST GO." Americans broadly support the state of Israel and its people. Many do not support its current government, military and warfare strategy. From your mouth to God's ears, Bibi must go!
Is it safe to say that a poll means nothing unless you know WHO was polled? If it is a GOP registered voters list, the numbers will be very different from a Dem voters list. Is there a way to know how random a poll is? I assume random would be most accurate?
My other question is, What/Who is it who has contact with voters and can actually influence them? My contacts are few and local and probably largely similar leanings. I wonder if I can do more, locally.
I have several thoughts here. First, I suspect the NYT's polling model is stuck in old methodologies that overcount conservative voters and undercount liberal ones. That's why their polling is so skewed and inaccurate regarding actual electoral results. It's not just the NYT with this distortion but the same applies to older polling organizations and especially the RW ones.
Second, the mainstream media and right-wing propaganda machine keep promoting narratives that the economy is "bad" even though the actual data is clearly the opposite. I believe that explains the dissonance where polls show people are saying their personal financial situations are good while simultaneously believing the overall economy is terrible. Right now, there seems to be some foggy brain lock with many people about the economy which requires us and Democratic party to cut through as we head in the 2024.
Finally, I want to echo Simon's straightforward focus on highlighting the good that the Biden administration is accomplishing. As he consistently states, we have to become information warriors to counter the garbage, lies, and BS that's floating around. More importantly, we have to talk ourselves down and stop panicking every time a bad poll comes out. A poll is a current day snapshot, not a hard predictor of far off electoral outcomes. Let's allocate our time, resources, and especially our minds on what to do versus worrying and freaking out whenever something negative comes up.
I am so appreciative for your seasoned comments about the polls. Truly helpful - thank you.
That said, by putting out this story about Biden and bad polls 2 days before election, the NYTimes is -- once again -- underhandedly trying to influence the Nov. 7 voting. One could make a case that the bad news might motivate Democrat voters more, but its equally if not more likely that folks will be discouraged and stay away from the polls, or decide they're not going to back someone (or their party) who's a "loser". I can't believe their prejudicial timing. I will write another letter to the Editor -- not that hearing from people seems to have any effect on their destruction of Democracy. I'm beyond despair about main stream media . . .
Regarding Bibi, I am wondering if he is ignoring Sec. Blinken's ask for a humanitarian pause to appease his right wing coalition, but also to eventually turn Americans against Biden and toward Trump (some Jews are turning to Fox News because of its positive stories on the war). I know the polls are not showing this yet but am worried it will change.
Thank you, Simon.
Was just thinking the same thing this morning about Bibi. He's a disaster for the state of Israel and needs to go. Also, we're stuck in a news cycle with good reason with the war in Israel which I think is hurting Biden's numbers at the moment. Believe that will change in the coming months. I hope I'm right. Keeping the faith!
I've been looking for a link to text for candidates. As I'm having massive dental work done and don't trust my ability to speak well, along with living in Alaska were calls can get dropped, texting is a better way for me to contact people.
I agree with you that the Prime Minister of Israel should resign, immediately. He and the other strongman, who moved the American Embassy to Jerusalem, have proven to the world what a mistake is made when they are voted into the highest offices in the land. They seek power and self-grandeur, and are therefore blind to the impact of their policies on their people and the world.
I also agree with Barack Obama when he said that we all have our hands in the Hamas-Israel War. The US should note dole out large amounts of money to Israel with no strings attached. As Israel has grown to an imposing power, and as they have colonized parts of Palestine, they have grown from a democratic country to a monster, an image of what they fled from in Germany.
I believe that America should support Israel, however the killing in Palestine has reached beyond my tolerance. They need to stop the rockets and allow Palestinians to move to the south, for a short period of time, as their ground forces root out Hamas. Once Hamas is gone then Palestinians should be allowed to return to all their country. The Israelis should move out from Palestine. Let them grow a country of peace with prosperity for all.
Polling says voters believe Trump would be better on the economy than Trump. This is partly a result of the Republican propaganda machine, but even more the result that the American public can be easily conned. Trump conned them in 2016, he conned them in 2020 (or he would have been even farther behind), and he's conning them now. His entire career has been a con and it doesn't seem to matter to half of the electorate. The American electorate I mean.
And the NYT likes Trump for being a newsmaker. Bad news sells papers, and we're in for a tsunami of bad news if he becomes President.
When it comes to polling, I remind myself that 75 million people voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and very few if any were polled. He has won the hearts of many Americans and it's hard to believe that somehow those same people will turn on him in 2023. But we have to keep reminding them of his accomplishments because we Americans have a short attentions span. Nothing is guaranteed.
Younger voters need to be mentored and encouraged to vote. Respect the young generation and their opinions. They may not have the same ideas as you, but they are the future and will take the world on their way. Give advice, not criticize, and try to remind them that yesterday's wisdom still applies today.
I totally agree that Bibi must go, and I am fully confident that he will be gone, sooner rather than later. He is basically toast at this point. Agreeing to an emergency coalition government and sidelining the most extreme members of his cabinet were desperation measures to hang on to power in whatever form he can (remember that, like Trump, he has his own legal troubles). He campaigned on one central message: "I will keep you safe." He is trying to blame October 7 on military and intelligence failures, but he is fooling no one. Everyone in Israel has been directly affected by this -- it is a small country, and every single person is connected in some way to someone who was murdered and/or taken hostage. When ultra-orthodox young men start volunteering for military service (they are exempt under current law), you know that something has fundamentally shifted.
I am recommending readers make liberal use of Simon's work when commenting in other publications. I am a prolific commenter in the New York Times. Posting Simon's work gets an immediate posting. Immediate. It's another great way to get his work out there. And nothing beats the junk people write in a comments section like facts and data. It is often that someone will respond to what I have posted and say thanks for the information. I refer them to Simon's Hopium.
I’ve been watching Bloomberg news and every segment shoe horns these polls. The Bloomberg poll was bad too. I am really depressed but I am just focusing on tomorrow’s election.
I'm glad you said that about Bibi. As far as I can tell, people on the far-right fail people 90 percent of the time. All the more reason to defeat MAGA in the US.