Hi Vickie, I completely get it -- I'd sleep better at night if Biden were up by 5 or 10! But I do think that Biden being tied or even slightly ahead in the polls is not a bad starting point as the general election season kicks off. It's an improvement from the past few months, and most polling right now shows that Trump has a pretty consistent limit at about 44-45% support. There's no sign of that being the case for Biden. We just have to do the work to keep bringing the 'wanderers' back, as Simon says.
Hey Vickie - I understand as well. Also remember we have several months & lots of work to do! Polling I believe it increasingly antiquated. Also let's not forget polls don't vote -fired up, passionate people do! Keep calm & campaign on!
Hi, Vickie— i’ll repeat what I said in my post above, to try to make sure you see it. Given that most of the polls out there skew Republican quite a bit, I think that, even if Biden is ahead by a little, It’s encouraging news. If he is ahead by a small margin in polls that skew hard to the right, he is probably ahead by far more than that among the general electorate.
Vickie, you might want to look into Field team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) which registers democrats in swing states. It's tag line is "register Democrats and save the world!" Besides in person registration you can phone- and/or text-bank or write postcards.
Another great organization is VoteRiders which helps registered voters get the ID they need to vote. I am currently writing "letters to voters" that they have identified may not have the proper ID. It is mostly hand-addressing envelopes and adding a breif message to the form letter/inforrmation sheet you print out. I also went to an orientation the other night about how to actually help the voters (that respond to the letters) to get the IDs they need. The have some in person opportunities in select cities, but it can all be done over the phone too.
* All of the "swing states" are not really swing at all - ALL of them have two Dem Senators and everyone but GA has a Dem Gov. THIS means Dems have won ALL, recent, statewide races
* the Reds (not Cincinnati) state parties are in shambles, factions, broke, destitute and ....
(fill in your word ...)
* ALL recent elections point to more Blue Wave, such as Tues AL win of the state house seat
* Fundraising by the Blue Wave far exceeds the Reds (not Cinci)
* WHO IS EXCITED? OK, I'll let you answer this one!
"Blue skies, smiling at me, nothing but Blue Waves do I see,
Blue birds, singing a song, nothing but Blue Waves .... all day long.
Never saw the sun shining so bright, never saw things going so ... left!!
Blue waves, just like the sea, nothing but Blue Waves, do ... we. seeee "
Given that most polls skew Republican, the fact that Biden is leading in so many of them is extremely encouraging. I suspect that if he is leading a little bit in the polls, he is actually leading by a lot among the general electorate.
House Democrats have just expanded their Red-to-Blue Target List to 21 seats the DCCC aims to flip. Truth be told, I think this is far too conservative. In my opinion, we should be aiming to flip EVERY Congressional District where a Republican won by 10 percent or less.
Thanks for posting! I agree we need to be aggressive!
The DLCC (whch helps Dems in state legislative races) has just published their Spotlight Races which includes quite a few NC candidates for the NC House and Senate. Two of the spotlighted candidates I know personally - Woodson Bradley who is running for SD-42 (she is a fierce advocate for women and their rights to bodily autonomy) and Nicole Sidman who is running for HD-105 (to take on the treason weasel Trish Cotham, who last year flipped from Democrat to Republican and gave the NC GOP a veto-proof super-majority). Nicole is laser-focused on taking back the HD-105 even though the GOP managed to gerrymander a D+15 (or so) district into an R+2 district.
The DLCC is advertizing a 5X match before the deadline. If you click on a candidate's name, you can donate specifically to them. FYI, I can't find info on what the deadline is, but I assume that if the blue banner at the top advertising the match is still there that the deadline has not passed.
Right now I think we should try aggressively to flip Ken Buck’s seat he just vacated in Colorado. The leading Democrat is Ike McCorkle https://ike4co.com/
I love reading your passionate, energized and enthusiastic writings about our wonderful country, Simon. I’ve always loved our country but I’ve really grown in appreciation of our country and the messiness and greatness of it as a community member of Hopium Chronicles.
With the democrats over performing polls in special elections and Trump under-performing some polls in Primaries........is it possible some savvy democrats are telling pollsters they are voting GOP/Trump along the lines of DNC supporting the extremist option in down ticket primaries?
I think it is far more likely that Republican women are telling pollsters that they support Trump, but then they have been voting for Nikki Haley in the primaries.
I live in South Florida and I am concerned about the Cuban and Venezuelan citizens who are being pulled to the right by right- wing Spanish language radio. These are people who either themselves, their parents or grandparents came to the US to escape authoritarianism and are now willing to vote for the very thing they were trying to get away from. How they don’t see this, I don’t know other than to say they are being fed lies and misinformation. The Democratic Party needs to do more to reach this demographic. Simon, perhaps it’s time for an “Afterward-2024” Spanish language piece to accompany the previous two.
“The Biden campaign is launching a national program Tuesday to engage and mobilize Latino voters, coinciding with President Biden’s trips to Nevada and Arizona.”
“Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff, Vice President Kamala Harris’ husband and a top Biden campaign surrogate, joined Florida Democratic officials in Coral Gables on Wednesday to launch the campaign’s Hispanic outreach initiative, Latinos con Biden-Harris, in Florida..”
Thank you for sharing! It’s good to know. There is also a local organization here that I support called “mi Vecino” (my neighbor) which does year-round work to engage Hispanic voters and does voter registration.
I think we need to fight disinformation by utilizing trusted sources within each community.
I'm involved with writing postcards for Northeast Arizona Native Democrats to connect native voters with their local organizers. Since many (most?) indiginous groups are matriarchal, they put on Matriarch programs to train the elders in voting outreach.
Another group I support with $$, New Rural Project (https://www.newruralproject.org/programs), which engages with rural voters of color in NC, has programs to meet voters where they are at with Barbershop and Beauty Salon Conversations.
I also recall reading about an ad campaign during Covid in Montgomery County Md to encourage Covid Vaccines. It featured a cartoon grandmother admonishing her grandchildren to get vaccinated. IIRC, they had both a English and Spanish version of Abuelina.
In the last couple of months before the 2016 election, we watched how Spanish-language propaganda and conspiracy stories had a significant impact on parts of the Hispanic vote (which of course is far from homogeneous). This was especially the case in Florida, where we saw a major swing. Imho, this is a very under-reported story.
Such a good line: “COVID confused our current President [rRump], and his refusal to tackle the pandemic head on has done lasting harm to the American economy and the health of its people.”
I love the reprint of your article from 2020. I would love to see a similar article now for 2024 that outlines just as concisely the positives of this last 4 years administration, the contradictions on immigration and why the bipartisan bill that was stalled by Trump Republicans in the house is necessary and expected to be implemented but used as a pawn to blackmail the electorate; how Trump and the GOP are calling for more reductions or eliminations to our “safety net” policies such as Social Security, Medicare, the Affordable Care Act, and Medicare to exact reverse Robin Hood policies giving more money to the rich and break the backs of working Americans despite proclaiming they’re making America great again. We need to point out how those Trump GOP policies have created economic slow downs in the middle class that has contributed to worsening mortality rate of middle class working Americans due to less safety net programs than other developed “rich” nations. We need to show how Democratic Biden policies strengthens safety net programs, infrastructure, the economy and healthcare to boost the middle class working individuals, expand support to our citizens struggling to realize the American dream and fortify the future for our youth (our grandchildren). 👵🏻
Hi Vickie, I completely get it -- I'd sleep better at night if Biden were up by 5 or 10! But I do think that Biden being tied or even slightly ahead in the polls is not a bad starting point as the general election season kicks off. It's an improvement from the past few months, and most polling right now shows that Trump has a pretty consistent limit at about 44-45% support. There's no sign of that being the case for Biden. We just have to do the work to keep bringing the 'wanderers' back, as Simon says.
Hey Vickie - I understand as well. Also remember we have several months & lots of work to do! Polling I believe it increasingly antiquated. Also let's not forget polls don't vote -fired up, passionate people do! Keep calm & campaign on!
Remember we defeated him once - we can damn well do it again! If we do the work, we move the needle! We got this !
Hi, Vickie— i’ll repeat what I said in my post above, to try to make sure you see it. Given that most of the polls out there skew Republican quite a bit, I think that, even if Biden is ahead by a little, It’s encouraging news. If he is ahead by a small margin in polls that skew hard to the right, he is probably ahead by far more than that among the general electorate.
Vickie, you might want to look into Field team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) which registers democrats in swing states. It's tag line is "register Democrats and save the world!" Besides in person registration you can phone- and/or text-bank or write postcards.
Another great organization is VoteRiders which helps registered voters get the ID they need to vote. I am currently writing "letters to voters" that they have identified may not have the proper ID. It is mostly hand-addressing envelopes and adding a breif message to the form letter/inforrmation sheet you print out. I also went to an orientation the other night about how to actually help the voters (that respond to the letters) to get the IDs they need. The have some in person opportunities in select cities, but it can all be done over the phone too.
I’m praying that Biden wins in a landslide!!!!
ALL of the evidence points to a Blue Wave
* All of the "swing states" are not really swing at all - ALL of them have two Dem Senators and everyone but GA has a Dem Gov. THIS means Dems have won ALL, recent, statewide races
* the Reds (not Cincinnati) state parties are in shambles, factions, broke, destitute and ....
(fill in your word ...)
* ALL recent elections point to more Blue Wave, such as Tues AL win of the state house seat
* Fundraising by the Blue Wave far exceeds the Reds (not Cinci)
* WHO IS EXCITED? OK, I'll let you answer this one!
"Blue skies, smiling at me, nothing but Blue Waves do I see,
Blue birds, singing a song, nothing but Blue Waves .... all day long.
Never saw the sun shining so bright, never saw things going so ... left!!
Blue waves, just like the sea, nothing but Blue Waves, do ... we. seeee "
I pray you are right!!!
Sheila, how did you see this post from ... five days ago ???? just wondering
I guess it was still on my phone. It took me a while to see how I could answer this question. I’m new to Substack.
Given that most polls skew Republican, the fact that Biden is leading in so many of them is extremely encouraging. I suspect that if he is leading a little bit in the polls, he is actually leading by a lot among the general electorate.
House Democrats have just expanded their Red-to-Blue Target List to 21 seats the DCCC aims to flip. Truth be told, I think this is far too conservative. In my opinion, we should be aiming to flip EVERY Congressional District where a Republican won by 10 percent or less.
https://www.axios.com/2024/03/28/house-democrats-2024-republican-targets
Ooh, I'd love to knock off Calvert.. He was my congressman when I left California ... 30 YEARS AGO. It's way past time for him to be retired.
Thanks for posting! I agree we need to be aggressive!
The DLCC (whch helps Dems in state legislative races) has just published their Spotlight Races which includes quite a few NC candidates for the NC House and Senate. Two of the spotlighted candidates I know personally - Woodson Bradley who is running for SD-42 (she is a fierce advocate for women and their rights to bodily autonomy) and Nicole Sidman who is running for HD-105 (to take on the treason weasel Trish Cotham, who last year flipped from Democrat to Republican and gave the NC GOP a veto-proof super-majority). Nicole is laser-focused on taking back the HD-105 even though the GOP managed to gerrymander a D+15 (or so) district into an R+2 district.
Check out the full list here:
https://dlcc.org/spotlight-races/?
The DLCC is advertizing a 5X match before the deadline. If you click on a candidate's name, you can donate specifically to them. FYI, I can't find info on what the deadline is, but I assume that if the blue banner at the top advertising the match is still there that the deadline has not passed.
Right now I think we should try aggressively to flip Ken Buck’s seat he just vacated in Colorado. The leading Democrat is Ike McCorkle https://ike4co.com/
I love reading your passionate, energized and enthusiastic writings about our wonderful country, Simon. I’ve always loved our country but I’ve really grown in appreciation of our country and the messiness and greatness of it as a community member of Hopium Chronicles.
Thank you Simon.
With the democrats over performing polls in special elections and Trump under-performing some polls in Primaries........is it possible some savvy democrats are telling pollsters they are voting GOP/Trump along the lines of DNC supporting the extremist option in down ticket primaries?
I think it is far more likely that Republican women are telling pollsters that they support Trump, but then they have been voting for Nikki Haley in the primaries.
...especially if their husbands were listening when they took the poll. ;)
Build Back Better is the progressive response to Project 2025.
I live in South Florida and I am concerned about the Cuban and Venezuelan citizens who are being pulled to the right by right- wing Spanish language radio. These are people who either themselves, their parents or grandparents came to the US to escape authoritarianism and are now willing to vote for the very thing they were trying to get away from. How they don’t see this, I don’t know other than to say they are being fed lies and misinformation. The Democratic Party needs to do more to reach this demographic. Simon, perhaps it’s time for an “Afterward-2024” Spanish language piece to accompany the previous two.
Robin,Team Biden is on it !📣
“The Biden campaign is launching a national program Tuesday to engage and mobilize Latino voters, coinciding with President Biden’s trips to Nevada and Arizona.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/4540364-biden-campaign-launching-program-to-engage-latino-voters/
“Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff, Vice President Kamala Harris’ husband and a top Biden campaign surrogate, joined Florida Democratic officials in Coral Gables on Wednesday to launch the campaign’s Hispanic outreach initiative, Latinos con Biden-Harris, in Florida..”
https://www.gazettextra.com/news/nation_world/florida-s-lost-its-battleground-sheen-biden-is-courting-its-hispanic-voters-anyway/article_f678bdb7-7ff9-56b3-8d61-0c82ca1a170f.html
And do you think this would happen with a Trump administration?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/es/
Thank you for sharing! It’s good to know. There is also a local organization here that I support called “mi Vecino” (my neighbor) which does year-round work to engage Hispanic voters and does voter registration.
Staying strong with you here in Florida !😎
I think we need to fight disinformation by utilizing trusted sources within each community.
I'm involved with writing postcards for Northeast Arizona Native Democrats to connect native voters with their local organizers. Since many (most?) indiginous groups are matriarchal, they put on Matriarch programs to train the elders in voting outreach.
Another group I support with $$, New Rural Project (https://www.newruralproject.org/programs), which engages with rural voters of color in NC, has programs to meet voters where they are at with Barbershop and Beauty Salon Conversations.
I also recall reading about an ad campaign during Covid in Montgomery County Md to encourage Covid Vaccines. It featured a cartoon grandmother admonishing her grandchildren to get vaccinated. IIRC, they had both a English and Spanish version of Abuelina.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/08/08/latino-covid-vaccination-abuelina-montgomery-county/
Robin, I share your concern.
In the last couple of months before the 2016 election, we watched how Spanish-language propaganda and conspiracy stories had a significant impact on parts of the Hispanic vote (which of course is far from homogeneous). This was especially the case in Florida, where we saw a major swing. Imho, this is a very under-reported story.
Such a good line: “COVID confused our current President [rRump], and his refusal to tackle the pandemic head on has done lasting harm to the American economy and the health of its people.”
I love the reprint of your article from 2020. I would love to see a similar article now for 2024 that outlines just as concisely the positives of this last 4 years administration, the contradictions on immigration and why the bipartisan bill that was stalled by Trump Republicans in the house is necessary and expected to be implemented but used as a pawn to blackmail the electorate; how Trump and the GOP are calling for more reductions or eliminations to our “safety net” policies such as Social Security, Medicare, the Affordable Care Act, and Medicare to exact reverse Robin Hood policies giving more money to the rich and break the backs of working Americans despite proclaiming they’re making America great again. We need to point out how those Trump GOP policies have created economic slow downs in the middle class that has contributed to worsening mortality rate of middle class working Americans due to less safety net programs than other developed “rich” nations. We need to show how Democratic Biden policies strengthens safety net programs, infrastructure, the economy and healthcare to boost the middle class working individuals, expand support to our citizens struggling to realize the American dream and fortify the future for our youth (our grandchildren). 👵🏻