Hi, I am new here and I want to say thank you. We lost our dog on Friday after an aggressive and fast leukemia. My sadness from her loss was coloring my perception of the election. The knowledgeable commentary here has been extremely helpful to me. I sincerely appreciate all of your experience and hope.
Elizabeth, I am so sorry. Dogs are such a gift to us. Losing them and the genuine grief it brings is the price we pay for the joy of having them in our lives.
Good plan! Only 8,825 votes counted in Arizona so far, with Republicans accounting for 49.7% of those, Democrats only 27.8%, the rest Independents. It’s still early, that is going to change significantly!
I live in Maricopa County and I've seen a lot of people comment we haven't got our ballots yet I participate in the track your ballot with the recorder's office they did not mail my ballot until the 12th with Monday being a postal holiday I don't anticipate getting my ballot until the 15th I think this could be part of the reason for the big difference between the Democrat and the Republican number. Just a thought
More of a technicality question: TargetEarly and Early Vote Trackers report sligntly different totals of Mail Ballots Returned for PA: 401,402 and 415,428, respectively. Presumably both of you are looking as the same precinct data available, which are objective metrics.
While the big picture of totals and percentages are basically the same - both encouraging so far - any reason in the different totals reported?
Surely, one of you don't know something that the other doesn't know.
Michael McDonald addressed this- there’s a slight lag in reporting from all the Sec of State websites into these aggregators. I don’t remember the exact details, but he said the daily vote totals were likely to be different on each tracking website due to this. It’s simply due to a difference in when and how they update their numbers.
I don't have an answer for you, but I just want to share that while I didn't vote 'Day 1' as I was away from home for about 6 weeks and often without phone or internet, I voted as soon as I returned home (7 days ago), was notified the day after that my ballot was picked up by USPS and then notified the following day that it had arrived at San Diego Registrar of Voters. Hurray for Ballot Tracker!
I have a pretty slick spreadsheet showing final election results, final polling and polling error in the Senate races in PA, NH, AZ, WI and NV. It’s shocking to see the level of “Red-Wave Error” in 2022 in those states.
As of 9am today, at least 4,412,978 people have voted. In-Person Early Votes: 812,706 • Mail Ballots Returned: 3,600,272. Early Votes have been cast in 33 states. These twelve states have at least 100,000 votes:
I really appreciate your information— you seem very knowledgeable! I have read that polls (and I’m referring to the most respected polls) are not polling newly registered voters. Do you know if this is true?
I’d love your take on this—and again,thanks for your good information and comments!
Yes, that is true. Simon too has underscored this. Also, while the serious pollsters have adjusted their models after Trump’s "overperformance" in 2016 and again in 2020, it seems they have failed to adjust for our post-Dobbs reality. Democrats overperformed in the 2022 midterms and in ever election and Special Election since Dobbs. I think (and hope!) it will happen again in 2024!
In the states that report gender, women account for an astounding 54.9% of the vote.
If pollster has a likely voter model that includes a screen for prior voting (usually it’s having voted in 2 of the last 3 elections) than new voters would be excluded from that LV model.
Some pollsters (cough Nate Cohn cough) employ an LV model that does not screen for prior voting but Cohn assumes that means they’re going to vote for trump - which is a narrative he created years ago and refuses to back off from no matter the amount of information that counters his narrative.
I keep thinking about when Kansas had the abortion vote in Aug 2022 that won by almost 60%. I remember Tom Bonier writing about the spike in new voter registrations before that vote, and how young women were activated by Dobbs to vote. And we saw what happened.
I don’t see any evidence that Trump is dominating new voter registration since his initial wave in 2016.
I’ll add during Simon’s talk with Tom Bonier, they talked about how the polls were missing not just newly registered voters, but also WHO these voters are (lots of women and young people, especially Black women).
I would mail postcards to Georgia now. Early voting begins Tuesday, October 15 through November 1. Remember, Louis Dejoy is unfortunately still Postmaster General.
Sounds like you’re in the second wave. My instructions said the people Woukd have recd two previous postcards. Our don’t emphasize early voting—they did or didn’t by the time they’ll get my postcard.
I encourage everyone to follow the schedule you were given.
Afternoon my Hopium peeps. I am going to hit my target of completing 900 postcards this week 700 will be sending out by Thursday however I need something else to do because I cannot just sit on my hands. Are there other postcard organizations out there or is phone calls or texting a better use of time thanks for all your ideas!
Blue wave postcard movement is done too - I’m looking to find another way to do voter contact (don’t have a schedule that allows me to travel for canvassing). Might try text banking - perhaps the DNC training mentioned in the comments today.
I feel the same way. Need to do more but have some issues limiting my ability to doorknock or phone bank. But the DNC is hosting textbanking training this week, and I've signed up for the Wednesday slot.t They are doing training all week. Here's the link the DNC sent me so I could share with others. Hope maybe this is something you'd be interested in doing:
I’ve signed up to attend a training with The Democratic National Committee on Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024. Are you free to join me? Use this link to sign up: https://mobilize.us/s/ldLxF3
Activate America still has some campaigns going (all done by Oct. 20)--you provide your own postcards and stamps, and you get the addresses immediately by email. https://www.activateamerica.vote/
You can send letters for votefwd.org through October 29th. More expensive than postcards and you have to get envelopes. But something to do all the way through October.
Anyone see Kamala‘s speech from North Carolina today? “We will win, we will win “we got this, we just gotta put our heads down and every single day fight through the finish, we got this.!
Fantastic! Congratulations on such great work. I have also been working with Vote Forward to write letters to voters in the US and abroad. https://votefwd.org
Keep the faith and keep doing the work, people! Focus on GOTV. And here's some inspiration:
My GenZ daughter and I launched a little GOTV effort called Donuts+Democracy 2 wks ago on college campuses, and the results have exceeded our wildest expectations because of the AMAZING student organizers on college campuses! Check it out - in less than two weeks, we have:
🍩 Partnered with 55 College Dems, NAACP & Voters of Tomorrow chapters on colleges (incl community colleges and HBCUs) on battleground states/districts
🗳️ Hosted 13 D+D events (87 and counting to go!)
🍩 Talked with 4,657 college students & registered 1,987!
💪This is relational organizing at its best and it is HOW WE WIN.
It has been so fun and the student organizers are so wonderful to work with. Truly inspiring! Please spread the word as we have $4K we still need to raise!
Thanks so much for asking! The donation info for Venmo is in the newsletter, but if you’d prefer PayPal or Zelle, I can message you that. Let me know what works best. Thanks!
As we say at D+D, donuts are magic. I first did this on my own in 2022 at Univ NV Reno and my kids said - take donuts - college kids love free donuts. And they were right. Also, it's just fun and everyone loves that. We'd so appreciate if you could spread the word as we have $4K we still need to raise!
The only video that popped up right away when I searched for it was the teeny tiny clip with just the line of dialogue, but it is actually the punchline to a much longer and impossible-to-describe-accurately sequence of utter zaniness. If you need a laugh, the episode is "Marge vs. the Monorail" from Season 4. It was written by Conan O'Brien and is considered by comedy nerds to be in contention for the best sitcom episode ever made.
Aww thank you - really it's the students organizers who are AMAZING! So grateful to support their hard work. We'd also so appreciate if you could spread the word as we have $4K we still need to raise!
So happy to do it - of all the GOTV work I've done for years - this is by far, the most fun and most effective. And these student organizers are so grateful to have the support - we want to help as many as we can so we'd so appreciate if you could spread the word as we have $4K we still need to raise!
NBC poll moved from Harris +5 last week to even this week. Some are freaking out (Aaron Rupar for one example) but to me this shows a bad sample or bad overall methodology. For poll to move 5 points with no significant events or really any changes in the overall environment says more about the pollster than the actual state of the race. I think even the CBS poll that Simon highlighted in today’s post shows an electorate based on pollster hunches rather than what’s actually happening on the ground. So my thought is to ignore the polling noise and focus on gotv and building the case for Harris. I completely agree with Simon if we work this we win this.
To me it screams horse race clickbait more than anything else. There’s no legit pollster that can explain a swing like that absent a significant event with a straight face (- other than it’s what the bosses want).
Agreed, WTF NBC? The network is in my personal doghouse right now for doing anything, no matter how irresponsible, to get clicks. They had a headline to the effect of first responders were being sent on "suicide" missions to rescue people from the hurricane flood waters. No police captain, sheriff or fire captain sends people on suicide missions in the US. They'd be removed instantly if they did. To me, NBC news has become a tabloid. Having said that, the local NBC affiliate in Tampa (WFLA) did a superb job covering the storm. The national media is so loose with facts and numbers that I just don't believe them.
I'm with you Nathaniel - it doesn't make sense. I have a hard time believing a poll could organically move 5 points in a week! Is this one a different sample ?
To be honest, when I saw that +5 poll a month ago I thought, "Wow! That's high. Wanna bet this goes way down next month and everyone freaks out?" I'm not kidding, I literally thought this. That's just the way these things go. Remember that week when the Economist tracker went from +4 to tie then back again? So we got NBC and ABC saying it narrowed, CBS saying it's the same, and NYT saying she's gained. The trackers have stayed steady, as have the averages from 538, NYT, Economist, etc. It all evens out, it's all been the same for a while, and the last few weeks are about turning out that last bit of undecided people and making sure turnout is high.
People need to stop with the UP, DOWN, UP, DOWN. Do they WANT to spend the next 3 weeks going insane? These numbers aren't telling us anything we didn't already know. It'll be close in the popular vote but we have a small lead, it'll be super-duper close in the battleground states (that's why they are called the battlegrounds!), and we need to keep working.
The poll is fine. The context is important. A few things to note:
1) it’s weighted by recalled vote. So it might be bouncy. And this methodology may be less predictive, since people often misrepresent or misremember their past behavior.
2) it’s RV without an LV screen. They provide some context in the article: in a world where more men and no college individuals vote, it’s Trump +2. In a world where more women and minorities and college-educated individuals vote, it’s Harris +3. Which of those LV screens feels likelier to you?
3) We should expect noise in polls. In a true Harris +3 environment, you’d expect occasional polls showing DJT with a modest lead.
It’s definitely not a great poll. But I think it looks different when all relevant context is considered.
Again, I think this is a bad take. Weighting by recalled vote is a debated practice, absolutely.
Otherwise, you should EXPECT that honest pollsters will give you variable results. The MOE is high enough and the sample size low enough that getting steady results is likelier to be an indictment of your process and modeling assumptions than it is a true reflection on the race. Even in a binary choice race, there are so many subgroups (geographic, socioeconomic, racial) that you’ll never get an equal distribution. You’ll also never get the same “batch” of respondents. You might poll my block and randomly get the two households that support Trump.
The far more “troubling” trend around polls this cycle has been their stability. Feels like herding or putting thumbs on the scale to not be the outlier. Given the transparently bad actor stuff we’ve seen from TIPP and Rasmussen, I’d MUCH rather a pollster tell us what they got with RVs at this point and describe different approaches that would yield different LV outcomes.
I’m not a fan of weighting by recalled vote - that’s my methodology critique of the NBC poll. I do agree about thumb on the scale with modeling this cycle. To me it seems like an over correction based on 20 and not what’s happened since in 22 and off-years & specials. I could be wrong but I sense that a polling error in Harris/Dem’s favor is much likely this year.
That may shift a bit, but since around 1980, a majority of actual voters have been women. In our post-Dobbs world, there is no way men make up a majority or close to 50% of the total votes cast.
"this shows a bad sample or bad overall methodology. For poll to move 5 points with no significant events or really any changes in the overall environment says more about the pollster than the actual state of the race"
I agree here. The previous poll could have oversampled a pro-Harris population, and this poll could have oversampled a pro-Trump population. Or, as another commenter posted, the voter model is causing the changes. There's no reason for such a dramatic swing. If the two results are averaged, you get Harris +2.5, which is where I think the race has been poll-wise since the debate in September: Harris +3 or maybe +4 nationally. So-- all good.
Another thing, also, before everyone freaks out about national vote projections translating to electoral college results (for example, we need to win by 4+ points nationally to win the EC). IIRC (no guarantee there) the 2022 election was nationally about R+3 or so. But, the battleground states were very D. It was essentially two different elections. Abortion is still in the top two or three issues, and VP Harris has made gains on the economy and even immigration.
All of this is to say: f**k the polls at this point. All that matters is votes now.
My ballot was received and counted yesterday, 200 swing state postcards are going out on Tuesday (per the instructions), and my donations are heading toward VP Harris, Senate, and House campaigns every week. D.M.W.L. and carry on, my friends!
I agree on the “need to win popular vote by xx amount” to win the EC stuff being bunk. I also don’t foresee many likely scenarios where Trump wins the popular vote. Even the repubs know they aren’t going to win the popular vote.
Both the ABC and NBC polls were taken 10/4-10/8. In my opinion, that’s Trump’s peak because Trump dominated all news then while Harris was preparing for and doing her interviews. Nonetheless, the 4-5 swing in these polls to Trump seems strange at this stage of the election. I can’t tell if they changed the LV model. That could be the other explanation.
I’ve written here before about Harris’s strategy in doing the interviews. The risk was pretty high and the reward was dependent on the media treating her fairly. I think the jury is still out on whether that was a good strategy.
Why does media reaction to the interviews matter? Wasn’t the point to speak directly to the audiences of those interviews? I think all those interviews went well and then the Univision townhall was great. The campaign is back in rally mode for the principles and top surrogates and gotv/early vote for the field operations. I think a lot of paid media is hitting too. If Trump did get a blip from the interview prep that will go away now as the campaign is full bore for 23 more days.
There has been quite a bit written that the media did little to reward Harris for doing the interviews, and may have even punished her by focusing on a few item she said, not supporting any momentum for her and then going back to the Trump circus.
I get that but I also think the traditional media is less and less important for shaping public perception. So, I would agree with the campaign that long term benefits of the interviews probably outweigh the NYT/wapo/cable news coverage. But you’re right that it might partially explain any Trump uptick for that time period.
The hurricanes were in the news when the polls were out in the field, and the Trump campaign and its media auxiliary were lying and spreading panic and fear about FEMA.
I saw David Plouffe on Pod Save America today. I don't know if he is keeping his cards close to the vest so Dems are not complacent and to generate GOTV or if it really is as tight as he emphasized but I was surprised. It makes me so sad to think that 48% of the electorate is willing to justify a vote for that felon, fraud, abuser, and "gaudy fascist kleptocrat" as TPM called him this week. I mean, all you have to do is LISTEN to him and his grave cognitive impairment coupled with his ugly delivery to know that he is utterly unfit for public office. :( I am focused on postcards this weekend - action always alleviates anxiety.
I'm guessing you mean exuding confidence? Huh, I didn't get that at all. He kept emphasizing that it was absolutely tied and "he'd rather be us than them" but there were a lot of uncertainties. I thought it was interesting that he only mentioned the possibility of GOP voters breaking for Harris in passing and didn't really discuss new registrations. For me, he just kept coming back to that it was definitely tied and could go either way and any polls indicating otherwise were not to be trusted. I was hoping for more of the reassurance that Simon gives. Glad you heard otherwise and hope that's the case.
Yes, exuding. The edit button doesn’t work for me here sometimes.
He seemed confident provided the Harris campaign can get strong Dem turnout. In that scenario, Trump doesn’t get above 48% and Harris likely wins. That scenario did not include significant GOP crossover for Harris, which he said was possible but they were not banking on it at all. That means if there is significant GOP crossover, Harris likely wins by a lot more - possibly as much as 4 or 5.
It’s basically the same message as Simon but a little less bullish. Just a little. This election will come down to turnout and who works harder to get the vote out.
Yes, he mentioned that they were looking at this from the most conservative outlook. That Kamala could surprise is a word he used. He seemed to think Kamala would win.
Fran, In the last NYT poll it showed GOP voters going for Harris at 9%, up from 5% in their previous poll. Plouffe also said Kamala could surprise and had a higher ceiling and believed she was going to win. So I heard it a little more from what JCOK was saying that he seemed confident in a victory.
Yes, I've seen those stats. The constant emphasis on a tie is just disconcerting. As Simon keeps saying, Trump is the ugliest pig this country has seen. It's just unfathomable that he is even remotely competitive and what that says about our culture. Let's hope everything breaks our way and crushes MAGA into oblivion.
I Just think Simon is right and we are going to overperform like every other election since Dobbs and Trump will underperform like he did in all the primaries. Sometimes I think Simon and Tom Bonier and a few others are the only ones that get it. That's why Simon is so good to have guiding us
Here is the problem with trying as ascertain whether someone is "confident" or not. The type of person who is helping to run a Presidential campaign involving almost 200 million voters where the stakes are literally the fate of the world... think about that personality type. They have to be able to get bad news and not blink, and get good news and not smile. That sort of person has nerves of steel, probably sleeps 4 hours a night, swears like a sailor, is never seen with more than the first button unbuttoned. That person is a workaholic stress junky with a glass-half-empty and gallows humor. That person has to be on the lookout for any sign of danger and never, ever get cocky or leave themselves vulnerable, ever. The attitude of that person is the sort of attitude of a surgeon who treats rare cancers, who delivers with a straight face "Well, Mrs. Jones, prognosis shows it's basically a coin flip as to whether you live or die, but I think we might be able pull this off." What "confident" sounds like coming from that person is not what confident sounds like coming from a regular person, and you probably won't ever hear it anyway.
So when this sort of person says "We're not overstating our numbers internally, but I think you see the leading edge of things that could be quite positive," (direct quote from Plouffe) that is about as confident as they are gonna get. That's important! We don't need reassurance here, we need the truth. The truth is that there are 7 swing states, they are tied, any could go either way, winning all 7 is still a possibility but and the sole focus of the campaign is in getting the last tiny tiny boost to push Kamala and Tim ahead in at least 3-4 of them so she wins. Simon thinks we can do it, and so does Plouffe. That's the best we're gonna get.
I'm not looking for absolute reassurance we are going to win. But he did indicate that Kamala chances were better than the other side. That's some reassurance!
I don't think we know what the truth is right now. Like you said with an individual like plouffe he isn't going to be real forthcoming being very careful about everything. And on an earlier interview he said that enthusiasm is the no.1 metric that he goes by. Enthusiasm and new registrations are variables that change what the truth might be.
I’m listening to it now. He’s predicting Trump will get to 48% assuming Dem turnout is robust but not necessarily spectacular, and that Harris gets to 49% or 49.5% in that scenario. He thinks Harris has a ceiling slightly higher than that if Harris gets more than what the campaign is expecting with Indies and Indy-leaning GOPers. He seems confident but not over-confident
OK so I just read a transcript of the conversation with Plouffe (both because I don't like podcasts much and I didn't want to be swayed by any tone of voice) and it seems to me he is focusing entirely on the 7 swing states, rather than any sort of national popular vote, as a good campaign adviser would do in this situation. He was very clear that their numbers show a 1-2 point margin-of-error race in every swing state, which - and this is me speaking - we all know most likely correlates with a couple percent popular vote lead for a Dem, or some of those states would not be in play. Remember that the Other Guy got ~49% or more in almost all swing states last time, and Biden only barely cleared 50% in a few. So for me interpreting his comments as being about the swing states alone seems to track perfectly, given everything we already know.
Plouffe said several time they were attempting to be as "conservative" as possible with their modelling, which seemed to mean working under the assumption that the Other Guy will be stronger than ever and they will need to inch ahead based on the last few undecideds. He thinks Harris has a higher ceiling, the Other Guys' chances rely on an "extraordinary" turnout of unreliable voters, and his hunch is that Harris may get more Republican or Repub-leaning voters than before but are working under the assumption they won't. Seems to me like if that wouldn't be a possibility unless they were already holding their own among more moderate independents. He also let slip they are ok with what they are seeing in the very early voting.
The campaign has been very consistent in publicly saying they are the underdogs in a tight battle, but have a shot everywhere. Plouffe was pretty much delivering that same message, seems like.
I think accurate polling has gotten impossible in this cycle. There are too many cohort groups to build a realistic model of the electorate. Certainly, a few thousand respondents spread across the country can't be representative. The last accurate national poll was the 2020 election and we smoked Trump. Kamala will do it again regardless of any polling and ridiculous click bait by the NYTs and other MSM polls. Trust the voters who want to live in a democracy not run by crazy king Donald.
In driving through the Poconos and Lehigh County in PA on our way to Philly on Friday, there were static billboards, I would say, at least every half mile, with a big picture of Kamala and a simple message aimed at working families, things like “Kamala Harris will protect Social Security” or “Kamala Harris supports raising the minimum wage.” Others featured a former Trump voter who is voting for Harris. It was inspiring, mind blowing, and I think, effective! Some were on I-80, raising the possibility that they extend into deep red PA. Maybe someone knows who put them up and has a link to donate?
I also ask what is the impact of organizations like FT 6, Movement Labs, that register new Democrats? Yesterday FT 6 sent over 854K more texts to PA, MD, NE, NV and WI and today will have 3 programs to MICHIGAN . https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
I also remind that we have the capacity to flip Trump 2020 voters. . https://rvat.org/
Well placed comments on social media...."Not suckers or losers" to vets groups, military, military dependents, history sites. Vote vets has thousands of testimonials of 2020 Trump voters that flipped. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans or active duty members on Facebook, and 12.5 million family members of veterans or active duty members on Facebook.
Great and much needed Sunday dose of Hopium! Will post in the Markers For Democracy Slack and Facebook group. Looking forward to this week's final Hopium Winning The House Thursdays with Tony Vargas, a great candidate. We are postcarding up a storm over at Markers For Democracy and have added extended postcard hours this week. We have great guests joining us at our morning postcarding Zooms including a double-header on Tuesday with Rick Wilson joining us at 10 am, followed by Scott Kleeb (husband of Jane Kleeb, referred to in Simon's Substack) who will talk to us about a special Nebraska project to help get more votes for Harris-Walz and secure the blue dot. https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/712940/
We got our Voter Pamphlet in Oregon (we vote by mail, we get a big pamphlet with all the candidates and ballot measures laid out).
Anyway- Trump/Vance aren’t in the pamphlet. They chose not to submit a candidate statement to Oregon so it’s just a blank page. And I know they’re not winning my state, but they still have almost a million voters here. They can’t even by bothered to put a statement in the voter pamphlet. It’s so disrespectful! They’ll still vote for him, of course.
Self reporting. It is a beautiful, sunny Fall Sunday here in Southern Oregon and I am feeling sunny about this election. Simon your interview with Iowa House candidate Christina Bohannan was inspiring. What a tremendous, talented, experienced candidate.
I have been campaigning in some fashion every day and have encouraged people in my sphere to join Hopium. I will make a pitch here to unpaid followers. SIGN ON for even the remainder of the month, $5 and you can join in the great comment section and tell us your own inspiring stories about how you see the election is going in your area. This is absolutely the most accurate, enthusiastic, encouraging site on the planet right now for Democratic messaging. Come on in, the water is fine!
I am going for broke. Triple play today with donations to Harris Walz, Wisconsin Dems, and Christina Bohannan, Iowa. Now I am going to fill out a few post cards then tune in the NFL. Have a great Sunday! Cheers Hopium Mates
Love it, yay! Please get all your friends/family/neighbors/young people voting early, too, LFG!
Hi, I am new here and I want to say thank you. We lost our dog on Friday after an aggressive and fast leukemia. My sadness from her loss was coloring my perception of the election. The knowledgeable commentary here has been extremely helpful to me. I sincerely appreciate all of your experience and hope.
So very very sorry for your loss, always so hard to lose our doggies. Sending lots of love.
Thank you
Elizabeth, I am so sorry. Dogs are such a gift to us. Losing them and the genuine grief it brings is the price we pay for the joy of having them in our lives.
Please accept my deepest condolences...losing a beloved pet is one of the most painful experiences in life. My heart goes out to you.
So very sorry you lost the love and joy that is our dogs. You are new no longer, you are a Hopium community friend.
Good plan! Only 8,825 votes counted in Arizona so far, with Republicans accounting for 49.7% of those, Democrats only 27.8%, the rest Independents. It’s still early, that is going to change significantly!
I live in Maricopa County and I've seen a lot of people comment we haven't got our ballots yet I participate in the track your ballot with the recorder's office they did not mail my ballot until the 12th with Monday being a postal holiday I don't anticipate getting my ballot until the 15th I think this could be part of the reason for the big difference between the Democrat and the Republican number. Just a thought
Thank you! I knew there was a good explanation. I expect the pent-up enthusiasm in Maricopa will quickly even the score – and move it to Blue.
Simon - PA Question
More of a technicality question: TargetEarly and Early Vote Trackers report sligntly different totals of Mail Ballots Returned for PA: 401,402 and 415,428, respectively. Presumably both of you are looking as the same precinct data available, which are objective metrics.
While the big picture of totals and percentages are basically the same - both encouraging so far - any reason in the different totals reported?
Surely, one of you don't know something that the other doesn't know.
Michael McDonald addressed this- there’s a slight lag in reporting from all the Sec of State websites into these aggregators. I don’t remember the exact details, but he said the daily vote totals were likely to be different on each tracking website due to this. It’s simply due to a difference in when and how they update their numbers.
I don't have an answer for you, but I just want to share that while I didn't vote 'Day 1' as I was away from home for about 6 weeks and often without phone or internet, I voted as soon as I returned home (7 days ago), was notified the day after that my ballot was picked up by USPS and then notified the following day that it had arrived at San Diego Registrar of Voters. Hurray for Ballot Tracker!
I have a pretty slick spreadsheet showing final election results, final polling and polling error in the Senate races in PA, NH, AZ, WI and NV. It’s shocking to see the level of “Red-Wave Error” in 2022 in those states.
Any ideas on how I could share that?
You can post it on Google Docs or Dropbox and share the link here.
EARLY VOTE UPDATE
As of 9am today, at least 4,412,978 people have voted. In-Person Early Votes: 812,706 • Mail Ballots Returned: 3,600,272. Early Votes have been cast in 33 states. These twelve states have at least 100,000 votes:
VA 704,847
MI 543,650
FL 493,051*
PA 415,428*
NJ 312,523*
IL 296,783
MD 251,682*
MN 220,006
WI 212,518
MA 135,404
IN 125,090
OH 114,342
*) States that report party registration.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
I really appreciate your information— you seem very knowledgeable! I have read that polls (and I’m referring to the most respected polls) are not polling newly registered voters. Do you know if this is true?
I’d love your take on this—and again,thanks for your good information and comments!
Jeanie
Vashon Island, WA
Mostly I just follow knowledgeable people. ;)
Yes, that is true. Simon too has underscored this. Also, while the serious pollsters have adjusted their models after Trump’s "overperformance" in 2016 and again in 2020, it seems they have failed to adjust for our post-Dobbs reality. Democrats overperformed in the 2022 midterms and in ever election and Special Election since Dobbs. I think (and hope!) it will happen again in 2024!
In the states that report gender, women account for an astounding 54.9% of the vote.
If pollster has a likely voter model that includes a screen for prior voting (usually it’s having voted in 2 of the last 3 elections) than new voters would be excluded from that LV model.
Some pollsters (cough Nate Cohn cough) employ an LV model that does not screen for prior voting but Cohn assumes that means they’re going to vote for trump - which is a narrative he created years ago and refuses to back off from no matter the amount of information that counters his narrative.
Imho, both Nates need to take a sabbatical. Starting now, before Election Day.
Yes and yes. Both are just bad jokes.
I keep thinking about when Kansas had the abortion vote in Aug 2022 that won by almost 60%. I remember Tom Bonier writing about the spike in new voter registrations before that vote, and how young women were activated by Dobbs to vote. And we saw what happened.
I don’t see any evidence that Trump is dominating new voter registration since his initial wave in 2016.
I’ll add during Simon’s talk with Tom Bonier, they talked about how the polls were missing not just newly registered voters, but also WHO these voters are (lots of women and young people, especially Black women).
Just mailed our ballots in Washington state. 500 postcards to Georgia are ready to mail in a couple of weeks! We are not going back!!!!!!
Got my 500 postcards to Georgia as well. Going out on Tuesday!!!!
wait you got your ballot? we havn't got ours yet!
im in king county
Yep. Just got ours in Spokane. Yours will probably be there in a day or two
Greetings from a fellow resident of the Lilac City!
I would mail postcards to Georgia now. Early voting begins Tuesday, October 15 through November 1. Remember, Louis Dejoy is unfortunately still Postmaster General.
These are a part of a series of 3 batches. We’ve been instructed to mail ours between October 26 and 29.
Me too.
I think the suggested mailing dates take DeJoy into account. Pity we’re not rid of him.
Echoing another comment in here, instructions were to mail them on October 15, my Georgia postcards that is
Sounds like you’re in the second wave. My instructions said the people Woukd have recd two previous postcards. Our don’t emphasize early voting—they did or didn’t by the time they’ll get my postcard.
I encourage everyone to follow the schedule you were given.
Yes
I’m sitting on 400 postcards to Pennsylvania that I’m mailing on Friday (a few days early bc I’m going on vacation).
I haven't gotten mine out. I thought they mailed on the 17th?
They go out in batches on different dates. Ours are the last batch I believe. Yours are probably the second.
Afternoon my Hopium peeps. I am going to hit my target of completing 900 postcards this week 700 will be sending out by Thursday however I need something else to do because I cannot just sit on my hands. Are there other postcard organizations out there or is phone calls or texting a better use of time thanks for all your ideas!
What group did you get postcards through ?
I did postcards to swing states. They have completed all their sign ups
Blue wave postcard movement is done too - I’m looking to find another way to do voter contact (don’t have a schedule that allows me to travel for canvassing). Might try text banking - perhaps the DNC training mentioned in the comments today.
I feel the same way. Need to do more but have some issues limiting my ability to doorknock or phone bank. But the DNC is hosting textbanking training this week, and I've signed up for the Wednesday slot.t They are doing training all week. Here's the link the DNC sent me so I could share with others. Hope maybe this is something you'd be interested in doing:
I’ve signed up to attend a training with The Democratic National Committee on Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024. Are you free to join me? Use this link to sign up: https://mobilize.us/s/ldLxF3
FieldTeam6 offers addresses for lots of campaigns.
Activate America still has some campaigns going (all done by Oct. 20)--you provide your own postcards and stamps, and you get the addresses immediately by email. https://www.activateamerica.vote/
This is a highly-regarded action site that has targeted text campaigns happening now:
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/?show_all_events=true&tag_ids=22573
Here are other postcarding/letter opportunities:
https://votefwd.org/
https://swingleft.org/event/register/mobilize:630714?timeslots=mobilize:4507293&s=u
https://www.activateamerica.vote/postcards
Ballot cure phone banking is also something to consider:
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/718650/
https://www.mobilize.us/2024yesshecancampaign/event/676131/
https://www.mobilize.us/2024gavictory/event/686812/
Or sign up to drive voters to the polls:
https://volunteerblue.org/take-action-rides-to-polls/
You can send letters for votefwd.org through October 29th. More expensive than postcards and you have to get envelopes. But something to do all the way through October.
Anyone see Kamala‘s speech from North Carolina today? “We will win, we will win “we got this, we just gotta put our heads down and every single day fight through the finish, we got this.!
Postcards to Voters.org has of addresses.
voteforward.ord has addresses
Fantastic! Congratulations on such great work. I have also been working with Vote Forward to write letters to voters in the US and abroad. https://votefwd.org
Keep the faith and keep doing the work, people! Focus on GOTV. And here's some inspiration:
My GenZ daughter and I launched a little GOTV effort called Donuts+Democracy 2 wks ago on college campuses, and the results have exceeded our wildest expectations because of the AMAZING student organizers on college campuses! Check it out - in less than two weeks, we have:
🍩 Partnered with 55 College Dems, NAACP & Voters of Tomorrow chapters on colleges (incl community colleges and HBCUs) on battleground states/districts
🗳️ Hosted 13 D+D events (87 and counting to go!)
🍩 Talked with 4,657 college students & registered 1,987!
💪This is relational organizing at its best and it is HOW WE WIN.
👉You can learn more here: https://democratsdeliver.substack.com/p/cooking-with-gas?r=51f18
This is one of my fav stories I've heard in this community. A very big thanks to the both of you !
It has been so fun and the student organizers are so wonderful to work with. Truly inspiring! Please spread the word as we have $4K we still need to raise!
How do we contribute??
Thanks so much for asking! The donation info for Venmo is in the newsletter, but if you’d prefer PayPal or Zelle, I can message you that. Let me know what works best. Thanks!
People will do anything for Donuts! Lol
As we say at D+D, donuts are magic. I first did this on my own in 2022 at Univ NV Reno and my kids said - take donuts - college kids love free donuts. And they were right. Also, it's just fun and everyone loves that. We'd so appreciate if you could spread the word as we have $4K we still need to raise!
I just keep hearing/seeing this in my head: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WO7fm4tTtM
OMG - I've never seen that and apparently there isn't anything they can't do! Thanks so much for sharing!
The only video that popped up right away when I searched for it was the teeny tiny clip with just the line of dialogue, but it is actually the punchline to a much longer and impossible-to-describe-accurately sequence of utter zaniness. If you need a laugh, the episode is "Marge vs. the Monorail" from Season 4. It was written by Conan O'Brien and is considered by comedy nerds to be in contention for the best sitcom episode ever made.
TY!
Yep, that's true 🍩
Awesome
It's been awesome to do - very inspiring! We'd so appreciate if you could spread the word as we have $4K we still need to raise!
You are AWESOME, thank you!!!!
Aww thank you - really it's the students organizers who are AMAZING! So grateful to support their hard work. We'd also so appreciate if you could spread the word as we have $4K we still need to raise!
Thank you and your daughter so much for doing this!
So happy to do it - of all the GOTV work I've done for years - this is by far, the most fun and most effective. And these student organizers are so grateful to have the support - we want to help as many as we can so we'd so appreciate if you could spread the word as we have $4K we still need to raise!
I’m in for a Zelle donation; can you send phone number?
WOW! That's amazing💪1987 new voters is a lot of votes!
thank you. infinitely.
Thanks so much. I'm glad a scrolled down to this.
🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🙏🏻
Love the crowds! I remember my 26 year old son in 2016 saying Hilary Clinton crowds were not there. So this is great!
NBC poll moved from Harris +5 last week to even this week. Some are freaking out (Aaron Rupar for one example) but to me this shows a bad sample or bad overall methodology. For poll to move 5 points with no significant events or really any changes in the overall environment says more about the pollster than the actual state of the race. I think even the CBS poll that Simon highlighted in today’s post shows an electorate based on pollster hunches rather than what’s actually happening on the ground. So my thought is to ignore the polling noise and focus on gotv and building the case for Harris. I completely agree with Simon if we work this we win this.
Seriously ?! WTF NBC?!
To me it screams horse race clickbait more than anything else. There’s no legit pollster that can explain a swing like that absent a significant event with a straight face (- other than it’s what the bosses want).
Agreed, WTF NBC? The network is in my personal doghouse right now for doing anything, no matter how irresponsible, to get clicks. They had a headline to the effect of first responders were being sent on "suicide" missions to rescue people from the hurricane flood waters. No police captain, sheriff or fire captain sends people on suicide missions in the US. They'd be removed instantly if they did. To me, NBC news has become a tabloid. Having said that, the local NBC affiliate in Tampa (WFLA) did a superb job covering the storm. The national media is so loose with facts and numbers that I just don't believe them.
Anyone can put up a poll
Poll: MAGA'S Flee US by Millions to South America
If only
I'm with you Nathaniel - it doesn't make sense. I have a hard time believing a poll could organically move 5 points in a week! Is this one a different sample ?
It was roughly a month ago, not a week.
To be honest, when I saw that +5 poll a month ago I thought, "Wow! That's high. Wanna bet this goes way down next month and everyone freaks out?" I'm not kidding, I literally thought this. That's just the way these things go. Remember that week when the Economist tracker went from +4 to tie then back again? So we got NBC and ABC saying it narrowed, CBS saying it's the same, and NYT saying she's gained. The trackers have stayed steady, as have the averages from 538, NYT, Economist, etc. It all evens out, it's all been the same for a while, and the last few weeks are about turning out that last bit of undecided people and making sure turnout is high.
People need to stop with the UP, DOWN, UP, DOWN. Do they WANT to spend the next 3 weeks going insane? These numbers aren't telling us anything we didn't already know. It'll be close in the popular vote but we have a small lead, it'll be super-duper close in the battleground states (that's why they are called the battlegrounds!), and we need to keep working.
The poll is fine. The context is important. A few things to note:
1) it’s weighted by recalled vote. So it might be bouncy. And this methodology may be less predictive, since people often misrepresent or misremember their past behavior.
2) it’s RV without an LV screen. They provide some context in the article: in a world where more men and no college individuals vote, it’s Trump +2. In a world where more women and minorities and college-educated individuals vote, it’s Harris +3. Which of those LV screens feels likelier to you?
3) We should expect noise in polls. In a true Harris +3 environment, you’d expect occasional polls showing DJT with a modest lead.
It’s definitely not a great poll. But I think it looks different when all relevant context is considered.
Very good explanation. Good that NBC provided this context, and you have provided it here.
I refer back to my bad methodology statement
Again, I think this is a bad take. Weighting by recalled vote is a debated practice, absolutely.
Otherwise, you should EXPECT that honest pollsters will give you variable results. The MOE is high enough and the sample size low enough that getting steady results is likelier to be an indictment of your process and modeling assumptions than it is a true reflection on the race. Even in a binary choice race, there are so many subgroups (geographic, socioeconomic, racial) that you’ll never get an equal distribution. You’ll also never get the same “batch” of respondents. You might poll my block and randomly get the two households that support Trump.
The far more “troubling” trend around polls this cycle has been their stability. Feels like herding or putting thumbs on the scale to not be the outlier. Given the transparently bad actor stuff we’ve seen from TIPP and Rasmussen, I’d MUCH rather a pollster tell us what they got with RVs at this point and describe different approaches that would yield different LV outcomes.
I’m not a fan of weighting by recalled vote - that’s my methodology critique of the NBC poll. I do agree about thumb on the scale with modeling this cycle. To me it seems like an over correction based on 20 and not what’s happened since in 22 and off-years & specials. I could be wrong but I sense that a polling error in Harris/Dem’s favor is much likely this year.
This is helpful. Thanks.
In the Early Vote in states that report gender, women account for 54.9% of the vote.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
That may shift a bit, but since around 1980, a majority of actual voters have been women. In our post-Dobbs world, there is no way men make up a majority or close to 50% of the total votes cast.
Do you know ?
"this shows a bad sample or bad overall methodology. For poll to move 5 points with no significant events or really any changes in the overall environment says more about the pollster than the actual state of the race"
I agree here. The previous poll could have oversampled a pro-Harris population, and this poll could have oversampled a pro-Trump population. Or, as another commenter posted, the voter model is causing the changes. There's no reason for such a dramatic swing. If the two results are averaged, you get Harris +2.5, which is where I think the race has been poll-wise since the debate in September: Harris +3 or maybe +4 nationally. So-- all good.
Another thing, also, before everyone freaks out about national vote projections translating to electoral college results (for example, we need to win by 4+ points nationally to win the EC). IIRC (no guarantee there) the 2022 election was nationally about R+3 or so. But, the battleground states were very D. It was essentially two different elections. Abortion is still in the top two or three issues, and VP Harris has made gains on the economy and even immigration.
All of this is to say: f**k the polls at this point. All that matters is votes now.
My ballot was received and counted yesterday, 200 swing state postcards are going out on Tuesday (per the instructions), and my donations are heading toward VP Harris, Senate, and House campaigns every week. D.M.W.L. and carry on, my friends!
I agree on the “need to win popular vote by xx amount” to win the EC stuff being bunk. I also don’t foresee many likely scenarios where Trump wins the popular vote. Even the repubs know they aren’t going to win the popular vote.
Both the ABC and NBC polls were taken 10/4-10/8. In my opinion, that’s Trump’s peak because Trump dominated all news then while Harris was preparing for and doing her interviews. Nonetheless, the 4-5 swing in these polls to Trump seems strange at this stage of the election. I can’t tell if they changed the LV model. That could be the other explanation.
I’ve written here before about Harris’s strategy in doing the interviews. The risk was pretty high and the reward was dependent on the media treating her fairly. I think the jury is still out on whether that was a good strategy.
Why does media reaction to the interviews matter? Wasn’t the point to speak directly to the audiences of those interviews? I think all those interviews went well and then the Univision townhall was great. The campaign is back in rally mode for the principles and top surrogates and gotv/early vote for the field operations. I think a lot of paid media is hitting too. If Trump did get a blip from the interview prep that will go away now as the campaign is full bore for 23 more days.
There has been quite a bit written that the media did little to reward Harris for doing the interviews, and may have even punished her by focusing on a few item she said, not supporting any momentum for her and then going back to the Trump circus.
I get that but I also think the traditional media is less and less important for shaping public perception. So, I would agree with the campaign that long term benefits of the interviews probably outweigh the NYT/wapo/cable news coverage. But you’re right that it might partially explain any Trump uptick for that time period.
The hurricanes were in the news when the polls were out in the field, and the Trump campaign and its media auxiliary were lying and spreading panic and fear about FEMA.
Somehow that all stopped the day Milton hit.
I saw David Plouffe on Pod Save America today. I don't know if he is keeping his cards close to the vest so Dems are not complacent and to generate GOTV or if it really is as tight as he emphasized but I was surprised. It makes me so sad to think that 48% of the electorate is willing to justify a vote for that felon, fraud, abuser, and "gaudy fascist kleptocrat" as TPM called him this week. I mean, all you have to do is LISTEN to him and his grave cognitive impairment coupled with his ugly delivery to know that he is utterly unfit for public office. :( I am focused on postcards this weekend - action always alleviates anxiety.
Interesting. I had heard a different take on the PSA deal with Plouffe - that he was excusing confidence.
I'm guessing you mean exuding confidence? Huh, I didn't get that at all. He kept emphasizing that it was absolutely tied and "he'd rather be us than them" but there were a lot of uncertainties. I thought it was interesting that he only mentioned the possibility of GOP voters breaking for Harris in passing and didn't really discuss new registrations. For me, he just kept coming back to that it was definitely tied and could go either way and any polls indicating otherwise were not to be trusted. I was hoping for more of the reassurance that Simon gives. Glad you heard otherwise and hope that's the case.
Yes, exuding. The edit button doesn’t work for me here sometimes.
He seemed confident provided the Harris campaign can get strong Dem turnout. In that scenario, Trump doesn’t get above 48% and Harris likely wins. That scenario did not include significant GOP crossover for Harris, which he said was possible but they were not banking on it at all. That means if there is significant GOP crossover, Harris likely wins by a lot more - possibly as much as 4 or 5.
It’s basically the same message as Simon but a little less bullish. Just a little. This election will come down to turnout and who works harder to get the vote out.
Yes, he mentioned that they were looking at this from the most conservative outlook. That Kamala could surprise is a word he used. He seemed to think Kamala would win.
Fran, In the last NYT poll it showed GOP voters going for Harris at 9%, up from 5% in their previous poll. Plouffe also said Kamala could surprise and had a higher ceiling and believed she was going to win. So I heard it a little more from what JCOK was saying that he seemed confident in a victory.
Yes, I've seen those stats. The constant emphasis on a tie is just disconcerting. As Simon keeps saying, Trump is the ugliest pig this country has seen. It's just unfathomable that he is even remotely competitive and what that says about our culture. Let's hope everything breaks our way and crushes MAGA into oblivion.
I Just think Simon is right and we are going to overperform like every other election since Dobbs and Trump will underperform like he did in all the primaries. Sometimes I think Simon and Tom Bonier and a few others are the only ones that get it. That's why Simon is so good to have guiding us
Here is the problem with trying as ascertain whether someone is "confident" or not. The type of person who is helping to run a Presidential campaign involving almost 200 million voters where the stakes are literally the fate of the world... think about that personality type. They have to be able to get bad news and not blink, and get good news and not smile. That sort of person has nerves of steel, probably sleeps 4 hours a night, swears like a sailor, is never seen with more than the first button unbuttoned. That person is a workaholic stress junky with a glass-half-empty and gallows humor. That person has to be on the lookout for any sign of danger and never, ever get cocky or leave themselves vulnerable, ever. The attitude of that person is the sort of attitude of a surgeon who treats rare cancers, who delivers with a straight face "Well, Mrs. Jones, prognosis shows it's basically a coin flip as to whether you live or die, but I think we might be able pull this off." What "confident" sounds like coming from that person is not what confident sounds like coming from a regular person, and you probably won't ever hear it anyway.
So when this sort of person says "We're not overstating our numbers internally, but I think you see the leading edge of things that could be quite positive," (direct quote from Plouffe) that is about as confident as they are gonna get. That's important! We don't need reassurance here, we need the truth. The truth is that there are 7 swing states, they are tied, any could go either way, winning all 7 is still a possibility but and the sole focus of the campaign is in getting the last tiny tiny boost to push Kamala and Tim ahead in at least 3-4 of them so she wins. Simon thinks we can do it, and so does Plouffe. That's the best we're gonna get.
I'm not looking for absolute reassurance we are going to win. But he did indicate that Kamala chances were better than the other side. That's some reassurance!
I don't think we know what the truth is right now. Like you said with an individual like plouffe he isn't going to be real forthcoming being very careful about everything. And on an earlier interview he said that enthusiasm is the no.1 metric that he goes by. Enthusiasm and new registrations are variables that change what the truth might be.
I’m listening to it now. He’s predicting Trump will get to 48% assuming Dem turnout is robust but not necessarily spectacular, and that Harris gets to 49% or 49.5% in that scenario. He thinks Harris has a ceiling slightly higher than that if Harris gets more than what the campaign is expecting with Indies and Indy-leaning GOPers. He seems confident but not over-confident
OK so I just read a transcript of the conversation with Plouffe (both because I don't like podcasts much and I didn't want to be swayed by any tone of voice) and it seems to me he is focusing entirely on the 7 swing states, rather than any sort of national popular vote, as a good campaign adviser would do in this situation. He was very clear that their numbers show a 1-2 point margin-of-error race in every swing state, which - and this is me speaking - we all know most likely correlates with a couple percent popular vote lead for a Dem, or some of those states would not be in play. Remember that the Other Guy got ~49% or more in almost all swing states last time, and Biden only barely cleared 50% in a few. So for me interpreting his comments as being about the swing states alone seems to track perfectly, given everything we already know.
Plouffe said several time they were attempting to be as "conservative" as possible with their modelling, which seemed to mean working under the assumption that the Other Guy will be stronger than ever and they will need to inch ahead based on the last few undecideds. He thinks Harris has a higher ceiling, the Other Guys' chances rely on an "extraordinary" turnout of unreliable voters, and his hunch is that Harris may get more Republican or Repub-leaning voters than before but are working under the assumption they won't. Seems to me like if that wouldn't be a possibility unless they were already holding their own among more moderate independents. He also let slip they are ok with what they are seeing in the very early voting.
The campaign has been very consistent in publicly saying they are the underdogs in a tight battle, but have a shot everywhere. Plouffe was pretty much delivering that same message, seems like.
Yes, let’s focus on GOTV!!
I think accurate polling has gotten impossible in this cycle. There are too many cohort groups to build a realistic model of the electorate. Certainly, a few thousand respondents spread across the country can't be representative. The last accurate national poll was the 2020 election and we smoked Trump. Kamala will do it again regardless of any polling and ridiculous click bait by the NYTs and other MSM polls. Trust the voters who want to live in a democracy not run by crazy king Donald.
In driving through the Poconos and Lehigh County in PA on our way to Philly on Friday, there were static billboards, I would say, at least every half mile, with a big picture of Kamala and a simple message aimed at working families, things like “Kamala Harris will protect Social Security” or “Kamala Harris supports raising the minimum wage.” Others featured a former Trump voter who is voting for Harris. It was inspiring, mind blowing, and I think, effective! Some were on I-80, raising the possibility that they extend into deep red PA. Maybe someone knows who put them up and has a link to donate?
Yay🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Tied?
Again I ask: What is the effect that Trump underperformed in the primaries? Close to 30% in MI. 19% in Pa. https://www.haleyvotersforharris.org/
I also ask what is the impact of organizations like FT 6, Movement Labs, that register new Democrats? Yesterday FT 6 sent over 854K more texts to PA, MD, NE, NV and WI and today will have 3 programs to MICHIGAN . https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
I also remind that we have the capacity to flip Trump 2020 voters. . https://rvat.org/
Well placed comments on social media...."Not suckers or losers" to vets groups, military, military dependents, history sites. Vote vets has thousands of testimonials of 2020 Trump voters that flipped. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans or active duty members on Facebook, and 12.5 million family members of veterans or active duty members on Facebook.
Trump hates dogs. Pet/animal charity sites.
Trump stole from kids with cancer.
DNC 2024 Victory (dncorganizeeverywhere.slack.com) is recruiting callers.
Great and much needed Sunday dose of Hopium! Will post in the Markers For Democracy Slack and Facebook group. Looking forward to this week's final Hopium Winning The House Thursdays with Tony Vargas, a great candidate. We are postcarding up a storm over at Markers For Democracy and have added extended postcard hours this week. We have great guests joining us at our morning postcarding Zooms including a double-header on Tuesday with Rick Wilson joining us at 10 am, followed by Scott Kleeb (husband of Jane Kleeb, referred to in Simon's Substack) who will talk to us about a special Nebraska project to help get more votes for Harris-Walz and secure the blue dot. https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/712940/
Just donated to Wisconsin! Don't forget to ballot cure for PA: https://www.mobilize.us/east/event/676131/
Thanks for this link! I signed up!
also donated today
We got our Voter Pamphlet in Oregon (we vote by mail, we get a big pamphlet with all the candidates and ballot measures laid out).
Anyway- Trump/Vance aren’t in the pamphlet. They chose not to submit a candidate statement to Oregon so it’s just a blank page. And I know they’re not winning my state, but they still have almost a million voters here. They can’t even by bothered to put a statement in the voter pamphlet. It’s so disrespectful! They’ll still vote for him, of course.
Fellow Oregonian here !
Self reporting. It is a beautiful, sunny Fall Sunday here in Southern Oregon and I am feeling sunny about this election. Simon your interview with Iowa House candidate Christina Bohannan was inspiring. What a tremendous, talented, experienced candidate.
I have been campaigning in some fashion every day and have encouraged people in my sphere to join Hopium. I will make a pitch here to unpaid followers. SIGN ON for even the remainder of the month, $5 and you can join in the great comment section and tell us your own inspiring stories about how you see the election is going in your area. This is absolutely the most accurate, enthusiastic, encouraging site on the planet right now for Democratic messaging. Come on in, the water is fine!
I am going for broke. Triple play today with donations to Harris Walz, Wisconsin Dems, and Christina Bohannan, Iowa. Now I am going to fill out a few post cards then tune in the NFL. Have a great Sunday! Cheers Hopium Mates
Way to go,Rich!!