Happy Sunday all. Let’s start today with my current favorite video:
And this wonderful comment from Hopium community member Carrie Goode from our paid subscriber daily chat:
I was at the Arizona rally right UP FRONT! I got to shake her hand and told her - You have to win! She looked right into my eyes and said 'We are going to win - maybe our knuckles will be bloody but we are going to win!' Let me tell you, this was a thrill of a lifetime. This brilliant, beautiful, poised and passionate woman is exactly who we need to set this country right.
Next, enjoy my sit down with Christina Bohannan who is running in IA-01. A recording of our discussion is above. She is a terrific candidate, and like so many of the candidate we’ve backed has encouraging poll numbers, a financial advantage in the home stretch and with our continued help can and should win. As I talk about in the video above, I am deeply encouraged by the data and vibes I am getting from our House candidates. You can support Christina by giving to our 15 candidates, or our one click for the 4 candidate we’ve just endorsed to help them catch up. or by giving to her directly. Enjoy the interview - she is a great candidate!
I am not going to go through the new polls today. I will do that tomorrow. The bottom line is that everything is close three weeks out. That’s where things were a few days ago and that is what is likely to be the case all the way through Election Day. Today our focus will on what we are going to do in these next three weeks, together. I have long argued and believe that a central reason we’ve been overperforming public polls since Dobbs is the extraordinary effort and passion of the Democratic grassroots - all of you. That it is our hard work and love of country that takes close races and turns them into victories. And that is what we are already doing in the battleground states. Here is today’s TargetEarly tally of the early vote in the 7 battleground states. At this point in 2020 we had a 14 point lead in the 7 states. Today it is 29 points in what is mostly MI, PA, WI so far. Yes, this is good.
Remember a few things my friends: 1) 2020 was a COVID election, and we did not have the ability to fully deploy our grassroots power in the election. 2) In 2022 due to their extremism and our newly muscular and well funded campaigns there were two elections - a bluer election in the battlegrounds, and a redder one outside. We outperformed our 2020 results in AZ, GA, MI, PA and won statewide elections in NV and WI despite Republicans winning the national popular vote by 3 points. The red wave never came inside those places where all of us went to work because our money and grassroots warriors enabled us to control the information environment and push our performance to the upper end of what is possible. 3) Just as Republicans and Trump have been underperforming not overperforming public polls all across the country since Dobbs, we did better in all of the Presidential battleground states than in the national popular vote in 2022. In PA we got 57%, MI 55%. I know that the conventional wisdom is that Trump always overperforms polls and that we need to be up 2-3-4 points to win in the battlegrounds. That may have been true pre-Dobbs, but after Dobbs Rs and Trump have repeatedly underperformed polling and in 2022 we did far better in these same battleground states than the national popular vote. Simply we just don’t know what is going to happen. Will it be us or them who overperforms the polls? I am still betting on us.
This CBS graphic from their new poll today captures where I think the race is now. We are slightly ahead but it is very close and we just have to go work our asses off these next three weeks and win this thing, together.
So, here we are three weeks out and it is up to us folks. We have to do what we’ve been doing for these last several years in election after election all across the country. Go to work and turn close elections into victories.
Here is how I want to close strong and win with all of you:
Expand Hopium’s Reach - First, I want to work with all of you to expand the reach of this community, our upbeat hopeful approach, and the opportunities we offer for people to do more and worry less in the home stretch.
Today we have 106,000 total subscribers. I’d like to get to 125,000 by Election Day. Today we have 12,330 paid subscribers. I would like to get to 14,000 by Election Day. As an incentive for the close to 100,000 people who will read this post for free to become a paid subscriber I’m offering a 10% discount through Election Day, and weekly paid-subscriber only live event with me and guests for both membership levels - paid subscriber and Founding Member. To upgrade to a paid subscriber level use the link below, which also allow group and gift subscriptions. Joining us for our Wednesday night at 7pm paid subscriber love Zoom will be Tom Bonier and perhaps one other exciting guest!
For those who are already paid subscribers - thank you. Just keep working your networks and help me expand Hopium’s reach at this critical moment where our sensibility and can do approach can help channel many more people’s worry into concrete action to help us win.
Closing Strong With Our Hopium-Backed Candidates and State Parties - The VP starts off the day in NC and she and Governor Walz will be spending most of this week in MI, PA, WI. I’ve always believed that if we were to win we would all three of those states. We performed so well in each in 2022; each has Dem governors and strong state parties; and we just know how to win in these places. The early vote in all three states is very encouraging right now. Winning these three states gets us to 269 Electoral College votes. Which is why we’ve been working so hard to get us to 270 Electoral College votes by winning places where I thought our money and volunteering would make the most difference and where we had the best opportunity - Arizona, Nebraska’s Blue Dot and North Carolina. Our ticket is working MI, PA, WI this week. Let us keep working our states to get us to 270.
Job one here at Hopium is and always has been beating the rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon. And that’s why while there are many things we can do in these last few weeks the thing we must do is to ensure Harris-Walz wins. Here are our revised goals for fundraising in the home stretch, and my one big ask today - donate to Harris-Walz and sign up for a volunteer shift. Let’s send the VP some Hopium community love today!
Harris-Walz For President - $1,217,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel
Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:
North Carolina - $800,000 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $462,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $251,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
I am also adding the Wisconsin Democratic Party to our Presidential states. First, of MI/PA/WI Wisconsin is where we did not hit all our marks in 2022. Second, Hopium’s very first campaign was working with Ben Wikler and the WISDEMS to flip a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat which allowed us to implement fair maps for state legislative races this year and undue years of epic gerrymandering. By putting money into the Wisconsin Dem Party we are helping Harris-Walz, helping Tammy Baldwin and giving us a fighting chance to gain a majority in the Wisconsin state house and break years of extremist control of Wisconsin politics. It is also returning to where we began to finish the job we started together early last year. So here we go:
Wisconsin Democratic Party - $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch My Recent Closing Strong Interview with the inspiring Ben Wikler
Winning The House - Our work in the House this year has been incredible, inspiring. The reason I’ve focused on much more on the House than the Senate is your money and work just goes much further in an open seat and challenger House race. We are closing with 15 candidates who can win and flip their read seats blue with our continued support. All are rated toss-up or better by the Cook Report. Simply, if we win these races the House flips.
We have raised and done more work for these House races than I ever could have ever imagined. Today, in the three ways we’ve raised for candidates - the one click split between all 15, the catch up link for our 4 newly endorsed candidates, and donations to individual candidates we’ve raised $1,790,000. It’s incredible everyone. I’ve raised the goal for the one click 15 to $1,750,000 which if we hit it we will get to $2m raised in these 15 critical races. Incredible stuff all. Let’s keep working it people!
Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,530,000 raised, $1,750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates
Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $91,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.
Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here.
Winning The House Thursdays - This Thursday we gather for Tony Vargas (NE-02), Thursday, at 715pm ET. Register here to postcard or call for Tony and the blue dot. Watch my wonderful interview with him. Recent polls have Tony ahead and we just have to keep working it!
You Can Now Call Or Postcard Anytime, Not Just on Thursdays - I will be doing a broader update on our postcarding and phonebanking program for the home stretch tomorrow. Friends, we have mailed over 90,000 postcards into these 15 races these last several months. Our last day for postcarding given that we are targeting the early vote is this Friday, October 18th. If you head here you can grab more addresses for any of the 15 and help us keep driving the early vote and winning the election in October. Help us get to 100,000 postcards mailed by this Friday - it will be an amazing achievement! A big hearty, Hopium shout out to our partners in our Winning The House Thursday events - Markers for Democracy, Postcards4VA, Grassroots Democrats HQ and the DCCC. This has been a wonderful and rewarding project.
Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl friends, and we just have to keep working hard. I am still prioritizing Arizona for Ruben’s campaign will drive the Latino vote statewide, helping all candidates there including Harris-Walz. We have two of our 15 House races in Arizona, and if we perform well here we can potentially flip both legislative chambers too. Giving to the Nebraska Dem Party not only helps us win the blue dot and flip NE-02, it helps us defeat Deb Fischer and take away a GOP held Senate seat, making it far more likely we hold the Senate. And then there is Tester and Brown - our two red state heroes!
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $462,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Montana/Jon Tester - $131,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $90,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $251,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Winning It In October - Finally, we just need to keep educating folks in our networks about the importance of Voting on Day 1, voting early and winning the election in October. On Friday my daughter and I filled out our DC ballots together and dropped them off on the first day our drop boxes opened. It was her first time voting, and while I don’t know who she voted for I have an idea!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It felt so good to vote, and to be part of our team voting on Day 1 and winning the election in October. Let’s keep spreading the good word about the importance of voting early!
……….
This is it my friends. What I have been saying for many months now is that I believed we had the advantage because of the power of our grassroots to close strong. Our team is more powerful, hungrier, more experienced and sophisticated. We are motivated by love of country and joy, they betrayal and fear. We have Kamala, they have him. Let us go do now what know we have to go do for our freedoms, our democracy and our future.
Let’s close strong and win this election, together.
Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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