Closing Strong In Miami, Allred Drops Out Of Texas Senate Race, House Rs Abandoning Ship

The early vote in Miami has been encouraging - let's close strong everyone!

Morning all. Got a few things for you today……

The Miami mayor run-off is tomorrow, and Democrats head into Election Day with an encouraging lead in the early vote:

chart via Florida Data Geek - https://x.com/MappingFL/status/1997779763143008735/photo/1

It’s encouraging for NPAs - no party affiliation - should trend more D than R.

The NYT has an article about the Miami election today, and it too is encouraging:

Our candidate, Eileen Higgins, emailed me yesterday and thanked me for all the support, and said they were feeling good about what they were seeing. If you are in the Miami area please volunteer with the campaign and help them drive turnout tomorrow. In these low turnout run offs volunteers can make the difference between candidates winning and losing. Let’s keep working it everyone!

Puck News is reporting that up to 20 more House Republicans may retire in the coming weeks. It’s another ongoing vote of “no confidence” in Trump and Johnson, another profound Congressional rebuke. Here’s some detail from a story called “Johnson’s Career Crisis & The House GOP Exodus”:

The Washington Post has a new story this morning, “Why some Republicans are sweating their party’s redistricting plan.” An excerpt:

The primary takeaway from all of this is that the fight for the House will be the political story of next year, and Republicans know that Trump’s political future will be defined by whether his party can buck history and hold onto their House majority.

But this is a high-stakes bet — something even Republicans are acknowledging.

Here is their thinking: Redistricting is traditionally done once a decade based on the U.S. Census and population shifts in each state. But states redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms are doing so without updated census data and, in some cases, Republicans are using the results of the 2024 presidential election — one that was markedly good for Republicans and in which Trump himself was on the ballot — to cut up their maps for partisan gain. Worried Republicans say basing redistricting on the 2024 election is a sizable leap, both because Trump’s coalition has not shown a willingness to show up when he isn’t on the ballot and polls show Trump is hemorrhaging support from key groups in his unique coalition.

“I am not confident that that Trump coalition in a midterm election is going to stay with Republicans,” said Annalyse Keller, a Republican operative and partner at Seven Letter, while on Meet the Press Now. “There might be a chance that some of this backfires.”

Keller is not alone. Other Republicans have been publicly and privately worrying that redistricting for partisan gain might work in an election where their party is slated to do well. But Republicans are moving Republican support from GOP-friendly districts to make these new districts lean more toward the GOP, effectively making former stronghold districts more competitive — the opposite, say these Republicans, of what a party should do ahead of an election that is expected to go against them.

At the heart of these concerns are Latino voters, who are central to the Texas redistricting plan and were expected to be key to whatever Republicans decide to do in Florida.

With the 2026 maps now finalized in Texas we are getting movement from leading Democratic politicians. This morning Colin Allred announced he was leaving the Senate race and will now run in a newly drawn 33rd district:

Colin Allred is dropping out of the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and pivoting to run instead for the Dallas-based 33rd Congressional District.

Allred, a former Dallas congressman, was the party’s nominee for Senate in 2024, losing to Sen. Ted Cruz. In July, he launched a 2026 bid for Texas’ other Senate seat, but his path to the nomination was complicated by the September entry of state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, and an expected run from U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a fellow Dallasite who is hosting an announcement event later Monday.

Allred’s swerve came on the last day for candidates to file for Texas’ 2026 primaries. In a statement, he said he was deciding to exit the Senate race because he wanted the party to avoid a runoff — a likely outcome if Crockett decided to run — and maximize its chances of winning in November. The nominee will face the winner of a three-way GOP primary between U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston.

“In the past few days, I’ve come to believe that a bruising Senate Democratic primary and runoff would prevent the Democratic Party from going into this critical election unified against the danger posed to our communities and our Constitution by Donald Trump and one of his Republican bootlickers Paxton, Cornyn, or Hunt,” Allred said. “That’s why I’ve made the difficult decision to end my campaign for the U.S. Senate.”

Instead, Allred said he will run for Congress in Texas’ newly drawn 33rd Congressional District, one of two winnable seats left for Democrats in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area after the U.S. Supreme Court last week allowed the state to use a new GOP-friendly map crafted earlier this year. The district contains about a third of the residents from Allred’s former congressional district, which he represented for six years after flipping the seat in 2018.

Texas’ 33rd District is currently represented by U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey, but the new boundaries remove his hometown and political base of Fort Worth. He plans to run instead for the 30th District — currently represented by Crockett — if she gets into the Senate race as expected, a source familiar with the matter told the Tribune.

The Washington Post has yet another article today detailing how much Trump and Stephen Miller are f-ing over rural voters. An excerpt:

SHELBY, N.C. — The overworked kidney doctors in this small town were supposed to get reinforcement this fall with the arrival of a new colleague from India. Patients already had appointments scheduled with the incoming nephrologist.

Then the Trump administration demanded that companies pay a $100,000 visa fee to bring highly skilled workers from abroad, including doctors and medical professionals urgently needed in health care deserts. Nephrology Associates of the Carolinas could no longer afford to sponsor the Indian kidney specialist, and it has not found an American well suited for the job.

Two months after President Donald Trump signed the executive order restricting H-1B visas, soaring costs are roiling rural health care facilities that have long struggled to find staff. The fee increase for visa applicants, coupled with broader crackdowns on legal pathways for foreign-born workers, threatens a growing industry and jeopardizes patients who need timely care, according to labor experts and immigration lawyers.

In the latest from the Clownshow Cabinet CNN has found video of Pete Hegseth on Fox News in 2016 warning Donald Trump against issuing illegal orders to the military, and the NYT is reporting that last year - last year - Pam Bondi argued to the Supreme Court that “military officers are required not to carry out unlawful orders”:

When six Democratic lawmakers issued a video last month telling members of the military that they must refuse unlawful orders, President Trump said they had committed “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”

But Pam Bondi, the attorney general, said the same thing last year in a friend-of-the-court brief in the Supreme Court as a lawyer for the America First Policy Institute, a conservative think tank that represented three former military leaders.

“Military officers are required not to carry out unlawful orders,” she wrote.

She elaborated: “The military would not carry out a patently unlawful order from the president to kill nonmilitary targets. Indeed, service members are required not to do so.”

Gallup just released findings from a new poll showing support of the ACA has now reached its highest level ever (when we fight - we win!):

Wow, this passage from FDR’s Four Freedoms speech:

In times like these it is immature--and incidentally, untrue--for anybody to brag that an unprepared America, single-handed, and with one hand tied behind its back, can hold off the whole world.

No realistic American can expect from a dictator’s peace international generosity, or return of true independence, or world disarmament, or freedom of expression, or freedom of religion - or even good business.

Such a peace would bring no security for us or for our neighbors. “Those, who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.”

As a nation, we may take pride in the fact that we are softhearted; but we cannot afford to be soft-headed.

We must always be wary of those who with sounding brass and a tinkling cymbal preach the “ism” of appeasement.

We must especially beware of that small group of selfish men who would clip the wings of the American eagle in order to feather their own nests.

I have recently pointed out how quickly the tempo of modern warfare could bring into our very midst the physical attack which we must eventually expect if the dictator nations win this war.

A reminder that this is a working week for me as I head out to DNC/State Chairs meetings in Los Angeles tomorrow. Our two weekly paid subscriber gatherings will not be taking place this week but will return the week of the 15th at their normal times. See yesterday’s post for my thoughts about Trump’s selling out Ukraine and Europe to Russia, and how we must be growing far more ambitious in our efforts to mitigate the extraordinary damage he is doing to the country.

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Closing 2025 Strong

• Eileen Higgins For Mayor Of Miami (Dec 9 run off) - $27,500 raised, $25,000 goal | Learn More and Volunteer | Enjoy my our conversation with Eileen Higgins (the period for donating has ended, up to the campaign and volunteers now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $57k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $102k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

• Hopium Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $33,000 raised, $50,000 goal - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10)

• Hopium House 7 - Our Top House Incumbents Running For Re-Election (2026) - $250k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents | Keeping these newly elected Members in Congress is the first step in winning the House in 2026

Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $219,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate to all five state parties in a single contribution | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!

Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump, Making Hopium Stronger - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Five-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our now five part agenda:

1. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his current efforts to force Ukraine to surrender

2. Congress must stand forcefully for rule of law in the Caribbean - these illegal strikes must end; no war can be waged without Congressional approval; there must accountability for those who have broken the law

3. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world

4. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE; restoring due process for immigrants across the country; vigorously defending the 1st Amendment; warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents; ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities; stopping the unprecedented corruption; and by forcing the Administration to finally comply with Congress, end the rancid cover up, and release all of the Epstein files

5. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy

2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - Next year, on July 4th, America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.

One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!

Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We do not hope tomorrow will be better than yesterday. We do the work to make it so - Simon