I love the information about the ABC News poll. But here is their headline on their website this morning:
"Harris doesn't get convention bounce, but widens gap with women: POLL" Their headline writer has an agenda, and clearly has marching orders from above. This is our media, folks.
The policy proposals from Trump and Project 2025 are clearly excremental and fossilized. Really and truly, they need to be permanently reburied! Hopefully this November election will be a decisive step to doing precisely that.
A win in November 2024 is just the beginning! It will take another election cycle or 2 to clear out the MAGA thinking, don't you think? Agreed...how do we "bury" this?
Putting the lipstick, orange make-up and half-a-pound of hairspray on the MAGA Pig is actually the easy part. The problem is that this does nothing to make him look like a credible candidate – hell, it doesn’t even make him resemble a real human being.
Maybe we need to remember the US has an independent media. I say, get past the headlines and do the work of connecting with voters every single day. Get on the shoe leather express and GOTV. I you can’t do that, puck up a phone or pen. LFG 🌴
I write a weekly blog on Substack called Freedom Blog. I have a private, political Facebook page. Will do some volunteering this fall. Already contributing financially. Doing what I can. Fox is also considered independent media.
Indeed it is our media. Why don’t they report that Trump is now on a particularly despicable type of rally tour: he appears in “Sundown Towns,” towns that don’t allow black people within the city limits after sundown. He has done this in at least three states now, and it can’t be some coincidence.
In one of these towns, he praised a member of the audience who rushed the press box and tried to do reporters harm. The media must step up. They remind me of the behavior of children living with a disruptive and psychologically abusive parental figure. They often excuse bad behavior, as if that would make the threat go away, repeating the impulse until the reflex becomes unconscious.
Thank you for the link. I guarantee you Trump and certainly Stephen Miller knows what these towns are about. Frankly, so does the press. Disgusting. Media wants another Trump presidency.
imo the sundown town thing is a pitiful attempt to gain support for some kind of reaction to his upcoming loss. But as Lawrence O'Donnell pointed out many times [and he took video] T couldn't even get more than a handful to take a short subway ride to stand outside the courthouse. pathetic.
Recently, I read a post that underscored that the cities and towns where Trump was holding rallies recently all had important significance to the Ku Klux Klan and its history. (Philip, I guess that’s a different way of saying what you’re saying.) One or two might be a coincidence, but not six or seven in a row.
The mainstream news media might not notice, but I’d wager hardcore White Supremacists do.
Yes, it’s the same as dog whistling. The worse thing is that press i’ve read have mocked DT for hiding in MAGA centers rather than going to the swing states or undecided voters. If this article is right, DT is not loking for votes, he’s looking for his army. This goes beyond disgusting and beyond mockery. It is strategic and frightening, especially if our nation, our side is not ready, and we need to plan for it, not just for election denialists.
Yes, it IS disgusting, but he has no army, he is a private citizen, and any trouble he inspires will be handily crushed by the United States Armed Forces, which, last time I checked, Joe Biden is in charge of. And as a private citizen, if Trump attempts an insurrection, he will be arrested for citing an insurrection. And as a private citizen, he has no SCOTUS branded immunity.
But what does worry me is that he is going to where the crazies live in hopes of riling them up so much before the election that one of them might be inspired to plot an assassination attempt on the Democratic ticket. And then he’ll claim no fingerprints.
The white supremacist group, Patriot Front, was in Tallahassee yesterday.Interesting as our governor is losing bigly in the popularity polls this week with his stealth development plans for state parks and the U of F debacle….Meanwhile Trump was for, and then 24 hours later against Amendment 4 (reproductive rights).And today Trump’s is claiming he’s for recreational marijuana, another citizen-led ballot initiative our governor is fighting against.You couldn’t make this stuff up.Still lots of work to GOTV in the sunshine state😎 but they just keep making it easier!
I am concerned by the following Newsweek article published yesterday:
Kamala Harris Trails Donald Trump in 5 New Battleground Polls:
Vice President Kamala Harris is behind Donald Trump in five key swing states polls, with the pair tied in a further two, according to recent surveys.
Surveys by Republican pollsters Trafalgar Group of three of the key battleground states which could determine who wins the 2024 election shows that Trump is beating Harris in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 45) and Wisconsin (47 percent to 46).
Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in Michigan, with the former president narrowly ahead on 47 percent, and the vice president on 46.6.
While Harris has seen waves of enthusiasm for her 2024 bid since she was endorsed by President Joe Biden after he ended his reelection campaign, the surveys showing her not beating Trump in battleground states are largely consistent with polling companies' previous results.
Elsewhere, InsiderAdvantage swing-state polling shows that Trump is ahead of Harris in all but one of the remaining four major swing states.
The surveys show that Trump has a narrow one-point lead over Harris in Arizona (49 percent to 49), Nevada (48 percent to 47) and North Carolina (49 percent to 48). The pair are tied on 48 percent in Georgia.
Harris' and Trump's offices have been contacted for comment via email.
(The above article is longer than what I posted above, and yes, I know it's a Republican pollster but these results are still concerning).
Mary, I suspect that MAGA is worried. That is why they are on a full court press to convince us that their lunatic candidate is "strong". I believe that Donald's only tactic was to win the day's news cycle. This has worked for nine years. I feel they haven't won a news cycle, not a single day, since July 21. And they are worried, panicked and flailing. I'm sure we'll have some rough patches, as all campaigns do, but they are really in a pickle right now.
" I know it's a Republican pollster..." I think you answered your own concern there Mary. Not only is trafalgar a Republican pollster but a junk one. Many of these GOP polling firms are. Also remember the function of many of these polls is to make people like us - and non-political junkies - defeatist. It's a manufactured narrative, that these pollsters seek to push on us to influence events. Remember 2022. Red Wave, anyone? Hell to the no! I suspect the same dynamic is at work here, so don't let those GOP fever dreams fuck with your head.
I would add that the aim of the junk GOP polls is not only to influence voters, but to influence the media itself. The media organizations love the anxiety related clicks with a close race, their CEOs tend to be Republican leaning, and whatever happens, they don't want to totally alienate one party's brass, i.e. many would be more than happy to be the Pravda of the US. They're more than willing to commodify a movement once the outcome is certain, but until then, it's "both sides."
Trafalgar is not a real pollster, but a Republican disinfo outfit. Their "red waving" of the polls has intensified in recent days as the public, independent polling gets worse for them. Dismiss this data with prejudice.
In fairness to you, it can be hard to tell conscientious pollsters apart from outfits such as Trafalgar, which have found an extremely cost-effective way to impact the media narrative in the way they want.
💯 true - I know these that were mentioned are not quality polls but I honestly don't know which other ones to ignore. I have to start writing down a list.
And maybe to give T's attempts to claim that the election was rigged when he loses...' I was ahead in the polls...' legs to stand on and get his people to 'fight like hell?' Also, are Newsweek and other outlets aware that these R polls are disinformation and they publish them anyway, and by doing so contribute to disinformation?
Haven't checked in a number of years, but around 2016, I spent a few days online just checking background on 'news' publications,magazines, etc.. Mostly trying to find political background of owners, CEOs, and so forth. At that time, there were a few articles about Newsweek having ties to an ultra conservative religious group and college or uni. The two owners of Newsweek stated that the ties were only on a consulting and recommendation basis for various articles being considered for publication and had no influence on the management of the magazine. It didn't set well with me, even though it was my very amateur attempt at info gathering, but I quit reading Newsweek because I felt they weren't being very transparent. Along the lines of the cigarette companies insisting that their research showed no connection between cigarettes and cancer. I felt it was better/safer to be skeptical.
Newsweek has been a trash publication for a while now, IMHO; a very faraway cry from its heyday when the great Jon Meacham was at the helm. It was such a great mag then. Current owners are just living off the name now, which is sad, and yes, I read that it's run by RWers.
Alan Lichtman. Says he's close to giving a prediction. He's usually right. IMHO incumbency is the key factor.
The University of Michigan's monthly Consumer Sentiment Index issued Friday: "In July, 51% of consumers expected Trump to win the election versus 37% for Biden. In August, election expectations flipped; 36% expected Trump to win compared with 54% for Harris."
I wonder whether the pollsters have side bets......
Hey Mary, it's not always easy to "not worry" - so I get where you're coming from. I still catch myself in the act all the time. I always remind myself that the media does not have the last word - the voters do !
Of course! Honestly, before I knew better about pollsters ( & when I took polling as gospel in general) I used to get easily triggered by headline after headline. I'm surprised I didn't have any noise complaints in my apt building against me when I used to see certain headlines/polls hahaha.
I’ve learned a lot here in HC this last year and a half but from time to time something I read pokes at me so I do just what you did: research it from a trusted source like Simon and Hopium Community. I’m spoiled now as I don’t pay any attention to any poll except Simon’s postings. Let’s me focus on the “ do more” part for sure as you mentioned. But admittedly I still get occasionally hooked🤣🇺🇸🤷🏻♀️
Agreed. Trafalgar doesn’t hide their love affair for Trump. Newsweek is also ran by pro-trumpers. This is a join effort to try and change the media narrative and enthusiasm for Harris. Ignore anything by both outfits.
Also, I don’t think the polls are capturing the opinion of new, and, in many cases, younger voters who are registering for Democrats. A friend who volunteers for GA Dems has told me she is seeing a tremendous surge among women and younger voters in her state.
Another example of outrageous modelling, this time of an aggregator rather than a pollster:
Nate Silver currently "adjusts" his results by 2 percentage points towards Trump. Why? To take into account the foreseen "Harris convention bump", which he expects to subside. In other words, his model "adjustment" is designed to make Kamala Harris’ convention bump invisible!
EXCELLENT NEWS – but also a telling example of how much of the mainstream news media hides or tones down news that is very favorable to Kamala Harris and Democrats. The Axios headline yesterday:
"Voting enthusiasm way up since Harris replaces Biden, poll shows"
Axios key point: "Among 1,015 adults polled recently, 69% said they were "more enthusiastic" about voting than usual. That's up from 54% in March, the Gallup poll released Thursday shows."
Only when you dive deeply and read the fine print is the huge difference in party enthusiasm evident:
"– Democrats' enthusiasm score is one point shy of the party's high — 79% in February 2008, during the Clinton-Obama primary. The group's score, which includes Democratic-leaning participants, was 55% in March.
"– The score for Republicans and GOP-leaning participants is at 64%, up from 59% in the spring."
That is dramatic! The difference between 79% and 64% is a stunning 15%. That is likely to be hugely consequential this November and it ought to be headlined!
It seems to me that given the divisions that exist, things are generally more sclerotic and conventions, or anything else, is less likely to lead to significant polling shifts. The thing that will make the difference is enthusiasm, energy, organization, and getting people to the polls. If Harris gets a good debate showing, and we can continue to dominate the news cycle narrative (apart from the Trump gaffe machine) we'll overwhelm them.
It also feels to me that if we can win this thing, and render Trump a zombie political force, the GOP will be near a breaking point. He's gutted their party, and the "leaders" that remain will forever be tainted by association. Plebiscitarian autocratic leaders either function without a strong political party or wind up destroying whatever structure was there. He's broken it like his Atlantic City casinos.
I watched the podcast with Tara and Simon on YT yesterday. I really enjoyed the content, the format and the perspective. I also feel it's important that there were people featured in three age groups (mid 20's, late 30's and 55+). This helps break apart the news silos. Good job all.
Simon, I want to thank you for your leadership, and ongoing commitment to research and strategies for getting louder annd effectively impactful. And for the community you’ve provided. Doing me (and thousands more) a solid, for sure. Fingers crossed we can all one day celebrate the outcome of collective efforts!
"Bibi" is clearly trying to help Trump do what Nixon did in 1968 with Vietnam peace talks (https://x.com/Will_Bunch/status/1824050299012538516). They are colluding to try to win this election in November, and it is the worst type of treachery that I can imagine.
Agreed. That is why we, as members of the international public, have to keep the focus on him. With him in, there's no deal, because he's clearly trying to interfere in our November elections. In the end, it is up to Israel, but we have to do everything possible to encourage the Israeli public to push Netanyahu out.
Saw on MSNBC someone from Israel being interviewed and he expressed that netayahu is going to do all he can to elect Trump. So I believe you are right we need to be concerned with what he has in mind!
Simon, you need to keep your donation totals up to date as you've said for 2 days the House totals are over a million, but the dat you present shows less than 1 million.
Great. You should say so or add it to the total for folks like me that love your work and don't want you to look like you aren't attending to these details.
You could also just look at all the things that are done and tended to and cut him some slack… Don’t know if you’ve ever managed a big community before, but I manage one for my business and in spite of best efforts, some things slip through the cracks… It’s always appreciated when users notice the 500 things that are done well instead of the two things that could be improved
NEBRASKA: Wow! Survey USA / Split Ticket has Independent Dan Osborn just one percentage point (1%!) behind Deb Fischer in the Nebraska Senate race! If Osborn takes this, and caucuses with the Democrats as expected, it markedly increases our chances of maintaining control of the Senate.
That’s vital for enabling President Harris to implement her agenda and confirming her executive and judicial nominations.
NB. Hopium’s investment in Nebraska’s "Blue Dot" may prove to be prescient and wise in even more ways than originally foreseen!
I don’t believe he has, and I wouldn’t expect him to declare this ahead of the election. Osborn is, after all, trying to pick up a lot of Nebraska’s Independent and moderate Republican vote.
If I recall correctly, Democrats helped Osborn by not running a candidate in the general election. They also signaled the might endorse him, something Osborn rejected in order to maintain his bona fides as an Independent. Not surprisingly, this has caused some frustration in the Democratic camp.
Nebraskans here surely know far more about the Osborn–Fischer race than I do!
I'll trade Kamala's lead increasing by 1 point per week in their poll for ABC and CNN downplaying it in their headlines. That is, I would make that trade if the Universe would offer it! :)
Can’t wait to check out Closing Strong. I’m donating monthly to Courier Newsroom. Want to follow what young voters are up to. The convention coverage did a fine job showing faces among all the delegations. Delightful to see wide array of young citizens. Thrilled Tom Bonier is coming on. Target Smart saved my sanity around midterms by helping us get a sense of registrations. Thank you Simon.
Another reminder to partner with FT 6. Please ask Courier to interview Jason Berlin.
Check out BYOP -- it's free, Takes only a couple of minutes to send texts on behalf of candidates like Florida senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is running against the demonic incumbent "Sunset" Rick Scott, to get new Democrats registered and flip his seat. We turn into a pumpkin Oct. 7.
Hi [Their Name]! In FL we love our freedoms. But MAGA Republicans don't! They passed a brutal abortion ban and criminalized weed. FIGHT BACK! REGISTER & VOTE for Democrats like Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate and vote YES on Amendments 3 & 4 to legalize recreational marijuana AND restore abortion rights! ft6.us/FL_reg
Question for Simon and/or others with good insight. I (55) live in PA with my wife (60) and our 23-y.o. son. My wife and I are registered Ds, our son registered independent. Almost every day an oversized full color giant Trump postcard arrives in the mail addressed to him. Not one has arrived from Dems or Harris. I'm assuming they're both targeting PA independents vigorously. Would you advise that I try to contact PA Dems to ask what gives? Or should I leave well enough alone and assume the Dems are focused on reaching ppl like our son via other media avenues? I want to live the spirit of worry less, do more, and I'm throwing lots of my time & energy into various postcarding efforts. But I'd love to hear what you'd advise. PS -- the Trump materials consistently scream denails about Project 2025, which has led me to think that the Dem strategy of harping on it is really bothering the Trump campaign. I'm also not sure the Rs constant messaging of "Trump disavows Project 2025!" is a smart move. I mean, vigorous denial in which you keep repeating the words "Trump" and "Project 2025" seems like a good way to make people wonder if you're protesting just a bit too much...
I am writing postcards for Postcards to Swing States. I have many of them going to PA. I was instructed to mail them October 15th. Not sure this answers your question but maybe Dem organizations are sending them later - closer to the election???
Thanks Cindy. No, this doesn't have anything to do with the efforts of Postcards to Swing States or any conservative group similarly sending out postcards (if such groups exist). The postcards my son is getting in the mail are mass-mailers from the PA GOP Trump state campaign. They're 11.5 inches x 6 inches, full color advertisements. A lot of political campaigns send these out in PA. What I noticed was that the PA GOP seems to be sending these several times a week to registered independents, since my son is one. On the other hand, it's possible that he is part of some other demographic they've targeted (perhaps based on his online habits, soc media, etc.) I can't say for sure. I just couldn't tell whether there's reason for concern that Dems don't seem to be going for his vote via the same mass-mailing strategy. But perhaps Dems are focusing much more on internet outreach to his demographic. If Simon suggested I reach out to our state Dems just to give them this intel, I would do it.
This is very worrying. I know the Trump campaign is really pushing hard on young men to try to bring them into the fold, but Dems should be countering it.
They may be countering it but not using mailers. Maybe using a different media strategy, and possibly a better one. I'm not sure how to reach the right person at PA Dems but if I do hear something further I'll let folks here know. I don't want to encourage worrying. I'm staying focused on postcarding.
I love the information about the ABC News poll. But here is their headline on their website this morning:
"Harris doesn't get convention bounce, but widens gap with women: POLL" Their headline writer has an agenda, and clearly has marching orders from above. This is our media, folks.
Getting increasingly hard to put lipstick on the Trumpian pig
In the auto body shop I used to hear the saying, ‘ you can’t polish a turd.’
Unless, of course, you’re a coprolitologist.
😂 I had to look up what coprology means.
The policy proposals from Trump and Project 2025 are clearly excremental and fossilized. Really and truly, they need to be permanently reburied! Hopefully this November election will be a decisive step to doing precisely that.
A win in November 2024 is just the beginning! It will take another election cycle or 2 to clear out the MAGA thinking, don't you think? Agreed...how do we "bury" this?
My favorite is Shakespeare's Bawdy, by Eric Partridge.
Looks good! I so wish that Billy the Bard wasn’t such a struggle for me.
Me too! Eww. Wish I hadn’t 😝
Me too! Eww! Wish I hadn’t 😝
Putting the lipstick, orange make-up and half-a-pound of hairspray on the MAGA Pig is actually the easy part. The problem is that this does nothing to make him look like a credible candidate – hell, it doesn’t even make him resemble a real human being.
Maybe we need to remember the US has an independent media. I say, get past the headlines and do the work of connecting with voters every single day. Get on the shoe leather express and GOTV. I you can’t do that, puck up a phone or pen. LFG 🌴
Of course, I meant pick up a phone. Guess I have hockey on my mind. Go Devils!
I write a weekly blog on Substack called Freedom Blog. I have a private, political Facebook page. Will do some volunteering this fall. Already contributing financially. Doing what I can. Fox is also considered independent media.
Fox is indeed independent media – but it hardly qualifies as news media.
Indeed it is our media. Why don’t they report that Trump is now on a particularly despicable type of rally tour: he appears in “Sundown Towns,” towns that don’t allow black people within the city limits after sundown. He has done this in at least three states now, and it can’t be some coincidence.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/1/2267182/-Trump-is-visiting-a-succession-of-Sundown-Towns?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
In one of these towns, he praised a member of the audience who rushed the press box and tried to do reporters harm. The media must step up. They remind me of the behavior of children living with a disruptive and psychologically abusive parental figure. They often excuse bad behavior, as if that would make the threat go away, repeating the impulse until the reflex becomes unconscious.
Thank you for the link. I guarantee you Trump and certainly Stephen Miller knows what these towns are about. Frankly, so does the press. Disgusting. Media wants another Trump presidency.
imo the sundown town thing is a pitiful attempt to gain support for some kind of reaction to his upcoming loss. But as Lawrence O'Donnell pointed out many times [and he took video] T couldn't even get more than a handful to take a short subway ride to stand outside the courthouse. pathetic.
Recently, I read a post that underscored that the cities and towns where Trump was holding rallies recently all had important significance to the Ku Klux Klan and its history. (Philip, I guess that’s a different way of saying what you’re saying.) One or two might be a coincidence, but not six or seven in a row.
The mainstream news media might not notice, but I’d wager hardcore White Supremacists do.
Yes, it’s the same as dog whistling. The worse thing is that press i’ve read have mocked DT for hiding in MAGA centers rather than going to the swing states or undecided voters. If this article is right, DT is not loking for votes, he’s looking for his army. This goes beyond disgusting and beyond mockery. It is strategic and frightening, especially if our nation, our side is not ready, and we need to plan for it, not just for election denialists.
Yes, it IS disgusting, but he has no army, he is a private citizen, and any trouble he inspires will be handily crushed by the United States Armed Forces, which, last time I checked, Joe Biden is in charge of. And as a private citizen, if Trump attempts an insurrection, he will be arrested for citing an insurrection. And as a private citizen, he has no SCOTUS branded immunity.
But what does worry me is that he is going to where the crazies live in hopes of riling them up so much before the election that one of them might be inspired to plot an assassination attempt on the Democratic ticket. And then he’ll claim no fingerprints.
Jan 6, 2021.
The white supremacist group, Patriot Front, was in Tallahassee yesterday.Interesting as our governor is losing bigly in the popularity polls this week with his stealth development plans for state parks and the U of F debacle….Meanwhile Trump was for, and then 24 hours later against Amendment 4 (reproductive rights).And today Trump’s is claiming he’s for recreational marijuana, another citizen-led ballot initiative our governor is fighting against.You couldn’t make this stuff up.Still lots of work to GOTV in the sunshine state😎 but they just keep making it easier!
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2024/08/31/patriot-front-walks-through-downtown-tallahassee-to-old-capitol-florida/75033899007/
Simon,
I am concerned by the following Newsweek article published yesterday:
Kamala Harris Trails Donald Trump in 5 New Battleground Polls:
Vice President Kamala Harris is behind Donald Trump in five key swing states polls, with the pair tied in a further two, according to recent surveys.
Surveys by Republican pollsters Trafalgar Group of three of the key battleground states which could determine who wins the 2024 election shows that Trump is beating Harris in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 45) and Wisconsin (47 percent to 46).
Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in Michigan, with the former president narrowly ahead on 47 percent, and the vice president on 46.6.
While Harris has seen waves of enthusiasm for her 2024 bid since she was endorsed by President Joe Biden after he ended his reelection campaign, the surveys showing her not beating Trump in battleground states are largely consistent with polling companies' previous results.
Elsewhere, InsiderAdvantage swing-state polling shows that Trump is ahead of Harris in all but one of the remaining four major swing states.
The surveys show that Trump has a narrow one-point lead over Harris in Arizona (49 percent to 49), Nevada (48 percent to 47) and North Carolina (49 percent to 48). The pair are tied on 48 percent in Georgia.
Harris' and Trump's offices have been contacted for comment via email.
(The above article is longer than what I posted above, and yes, I know it's a Republican pollster but these results are still concerning).
Thank you.
Thank you. I know we say "do more, worry less." I need to stop worrying. Thanks again!
I try to tell myself, worry is not preparation. It's hard but when I say it to myself, it takes the edge off the worry.
Mary, I suspect that MAGA is worried. That is why they are on a full court press to convince us that their lunatic candidate is "strong". I believe that Donald's only tactic was to win the day's news cycle. This has worked for nine years. I feel they haven't won a news cycle, not a single day, since July 21. And they are worried, panicked and flailing. I'm sure we'll have some rough patches, as all campaigns do, but they are really in a pickle right now.
Those are all R pollsters. Insider Advantage (Zogby), Traflager and Rasmussen are all right wing hack polls.
" I know it's a Republican pollster..." I think you answered your own concern there Mary. Not only is trafalgar a Republican pollster but a junk one. Many of these GOP polling firms are. Also remember the function of many of these polls is to make people like us - and non-political junkies - defeatist. It's a manufactured narrative, that these pollsters seek to push on us to influence events. Remember 2022. Red Wave, anyone? Hell to the no! I suspect the same dynamic is at work here, so don't let those GOP fever dreams fuck with your head.
Thank you.
I totally agree, Jarrod.
I would add that the aim of the junk GOP polls is not only to influence voters, but to influence the media itself. The media organizations love the anxiety related clicks with a close race, their CEOs tend to be Republican leaning, and whatever happens, they don't want to totally alienate one party's brass, i.e. many would be more than happy to be the Pravda of the US. They're more than willing to commodify a movement once the outcome is certain, but until then, it's "both sides."
Trafalgar is not a real pollster, but a Republican disinfo outfit. Their "red waving" of the polls has intensified in recent days as the public, independent polling gets worse for them. Dismiss this data with prejudice.
Thank you. I need to do a better job of "do more worry less!"
In fairness to you, it can be hard to tell conscientious pollsters apart from outfits such as Trafalgar, which have found an extremely cost-effective way to impact the media narrative in the way they want.
True. Thank you!
💯 true - I know these that were mentioned are not quality polls but I honestly don't know which other ones to ignore. I have to start writing down a list.
And maybe to give T's attempts to claim that the election was rigged when he loses...' I was ahead in the polls...' legs to stand on and get his people to 'fight like hell?' Also, are Newsweek and other outlets aware that these R polls are disinformation and they publish them anyway, and by doing so contribute to disinformation?
Haven't checked in a number of years, but around 2016, I spent a few days online just checking background on 'news' publications,magazines, etc.. Mostly trying to find political background of owners, CEOs, and so forth. At that time, there were a few articles about Newsweek having ties to an ultra conservative religious group and college or uni. The two owners of Newsweek stated that the ties were only on a consulting and recommendation basis for various articles being considered for publication and had no influence on the management of the magazine. It didn't set well with me, even though it was my very amateur attempt at info gathering, but I quit reading Newsweek because I felt they weren't being very transparent. Along the lines of the cigarette companies insisting that their research showed no connection between cigarettes and cancer. I felt it was better/safer to be skeptical.
Newsweek has been a trash publication for a while now, IMHO; a very faraway cry from its heyday when the great Jon Meacham was at the helm. It was such a great mag then. Current owners are just living off the name now, which is sad, and yes, I read that it's run by RWers.
I follow the bookies. https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Alan Lichtman. Says he's close to giving a prediction. He's usually right. IMHO incumbency is the key factor.
The University of Michigan's monthly Consumer Sentiment Index issued Friday: "In July, 51% of consumers expected Trump to win the election versus 37% for Biden. In August, election expectations flipped; 36% expected Trump to win compared with 54% for Harris."
I wonder whether the pollsters have side bets......
Hey Mary, it's not always easy to "not worry" - so I get where you're coming from. I still catch myself in the act all the time. I always remind myself that the media does not have the last word - the voters do !
Very true. Thank you Jarrod!
Of course! Honestly, before I knew better about pollsters ( & when I took polling as gospel in general) I used to get easily triggered by headline after headline. I'm surprised I didn't have any noise complaints in my apt building against me when I used to see certain headlines/polls hahaha.
Hi Mary,
I’ve learned a lot here in HC this last year and a half but from time to time something I read pokes at me so I do just what you did: research it from a trusted source like Simon and Hopium Community. I’m spoiled now as I don’t pay any attention to any poll except Simon’s postings. Let’s me focus on the “ do more” part for sure as you mentioned. But admittedly I still get occasionally hooked🤣🇺🇸🤷🏻♀️
Agreed. Trafalgar doesn’t hide their love affair for Trump. Newsweek is also ran by pro-trumpers. This is a join effort to try and change the media narrative and enthusiasm for Harris. Ignore anything by both outfits.
Also, I don’t think the polls are capturing the opinion of new, and, in many cases, younger voters who are registering for Democrats. A friend who volunteers for GA Dems has told me she is seeing a tremendous surge among women and younger voters in her state.
Another example of outrageous modelling, this time of an aggregator rather than a pollster:
Nate Silver currently "adjusts" his results by 2 percentage points towards Trump. Why? To take into account the foreseen "Harris convention bump", which he expects to subside. In other words, his model "adjustment" is designed to make Kamala Harris’ convention bump invisible!
Sen. John Fetterman had a very Fetterman-esque post about this garbage on Instagram. Do more worry less! Finish strong!!!
EXCELLENT NEWS – but also a telling example of how much of the mainstream news media hides or tones down news that is very favorable to Kamala Harris and Democrats. The Axios headline yesterday:
"Voting enthusiasm way up since Harris replaces Biden, poll shows"
Axios key point: "Among 1,015 adults polled recently, 69% said they were "more enthusiastic" about voting than usual. That's up from 54% in March, the Gallup poll released Thursday shows."
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/31/voting-enthusiasm-presidential-election
Only when you dive deeply and read the fine print is the huge difference in party enthusiasm evident:
"– Democrats' enthusiasm score is one point shy of the party's high — 79% in February 2008, during the Clinton-Obama primary. The group's score, which includes Democratic-leaning participants, was 55% in March.
"– The score for Republicans and GOP-leaning participants is at 64%, up from 59% in the spring."
That is dramatic! The difference between 79% and 64% is a stunning 15%. That is likely to be hugely consequential this November and it ought to be headlined!
Ah, yes. Corporate media is trying to keep the "horse race" narrative alive and well.
I follow Tom on his social media accounts, and it’s just wonderful stuff. He kept things sane during the 2022 red-wave hysteria.
Tried to create an account for post cards and there is an error...
It seems to me that given the divisions that exist, things are generally more sclerotic and conventions, or anything else, is less likely to lead to significant polling shifts. The thing that will make the difference is enthusiasm, energy, organization, and getting people to the polls. If Harris gets a good debate showing, and we can continue to dominate the news cycle narrative (apart from the Trump gaffe machine) we'll overwhelm them.
It also feels to me that if we can win this thing, and render Trump a zombie political force, the GOP will be near a breaking point. He's gutted their party, and the "leaders" that remain will forever be tainted by association. Plebiscitarian autocratic leaders either function without a strong political party or wind up destroying whatever structure was there. He's broken it like his Atlantic City casinos.
I watched the podcast with Tara and Simon on YT yesterday. I really enjoyed the content, the format and the perspective. I also feel it's important that there were people featured in three age groups (mid 20's, late 30's and 55+). This helps break apart the news silos. Good job all.
Simon, I want to thank you for your leadership, and ongoing commitment to research and strategies for getting louder annd effectively impactful. And for the community you’ve provided. Doing me (and thousands more) a solid, for sure. Fingers crossed we can all one day celebrate the outcome of collective efforts!
Very good article as always, Simon. On a completely different note, given recent news (https://www.timesofisrael.com/bodies-of-6-hostages-murdered-by-hamas-just-days-earlier-found-in-rafah-idf/) and given the reports on Trump and Netanyahu (https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2024/Aug/21/trump-allegedly-urged-netanyahu-to-avert-gaza-ceasefire-deal-fearing-it-may-help-harris-in-elections-report), I think it's high time to get everyone to focus on getting Netanyahu out of power (via elections or via a constructive vote of no-confidence).
"Bibi" is clearly trying to help Trump do what Nixon did in 1968 with Vietnam peace talks (https://x.com/Will_Bunch/status/1824050299012538516). They are colluding to try to win this election in November, and it is the worst type of treachery that I can imagine.
Let’s do the American elections before figuring out how to impact Israeli elections! Yes? /s
It sounds like things are moving rapidly in another direction in Israel. Netanyahu might be in real trouble.
Agreed. That is why we, as members of the international public, have to keep the focus on him. With him in, there's no deal, because he's clearly trying to interfere in our November elections. In the end, it is up to Israel, but we have to do everything possible to encourage the Israeli public to push Netanyahu out.
I suspect that will happen anyhow, but hopefully they will reach some kind of deal soon.
I read just a few days ago that his approval ratings have gone up dramatically since April and that he now leads his opponents.
Saw on MSNBC someone from Israel being interviewed and he expressed that netayahu is going to do all he can to elect Trump. So I believe you are right we need to be concerned with what he has in mind!
I urge everyone to watch the new webinar Closing Strong. It’s a great addition. Thank you Simon and Tara!!!
Anderson Clayton is a force of nature! Very inspiring and encouraging what she and her teams are doing in NC.
Simon, you need to keep your donation totals up to date as you've said for 2 days the House totals are over a million, but the dat you present shows less than 1 million.
Thanks Richard but people have also given 75k directly to the candidates which puts us over 1m raised.
And btw I don’t “need to do” anything. Please use more respectful language next time. Thank you.
Whoa!
Great. You should say so or add it to the total for folks like me that love your work and don't want you to look like you aren't attending to these details.
You could also just look at all the things that are done and tended to and cut him some slack… Don’t know if you’ve ever managed a big community before, but I manage one for my business and in spite of best efforts, some things slip through the cracks… It’s always appreciated when users notice the 500 things that are done well instead of the two things that could be improved
NEBRASKA: Wow! Survey USA / Split Ticket has Independent Dan Osborn just one percentage point (1%!) behind Deb Fischer in the Nebraska Senate race! If Osborn takes this, and caucuses with the Democrats as expected, it markedly increases our chances of maintaining control of the Senate.
That’s vital for enabling President Harris to implement her agenda and confirming her executive and judicial nominations.
NB. Hopium’s investment in Nebraska’s "Blue Dot" may prove to be prescient and wise in even more ways than originally foreseen!
Has Osborn publicly declared that he will caucus with the Dems for the purpose of selecting a Majority Leader?
I don’t believe he has, and I wouldn’t expect him to declare this ahead of the election. Osborn is, after all, trying to pick up a lot of Nebraska’s Independent and moderate Republican vote.
If I recall correctly, Democrats helped Osborn by not running a candidate in the general election. They also signaled the might endorse him, something Osborn rejected in order to maintain his bona fides as an Independent. Not surprisingly, this has caused some frustration in the Democratic camp.
Nebraskans here surely know far more about the Osborn–Fischer race than I do!
Osborn’s reticence to commit re caucusing makes political sense. Thanks for pointing that out!
Well, I hope I’m right and that’s all it is.
See my earlier comment about the ABC News website headline. CNN just repeated it.
I'll trade Kamala's lead increasing by 1 point per week in their poll for ABC and CNN downplaying it in their headlines. That is, I would make that trade if the Universe would offer it! :)
Hear, hear!
I’ll even trade a 1-point gain per week by Kamala in respectable polls for Trump leading by 10 in Rasmussen!
Can’t wait to check out Closing Strong. I’m donating monthly to Courier Newsroom. Want to follow what young voters are up to. The convention coverage did a fine job showing faces among all the delegations. Delightful to see wide array of young citizens. Thrilled Tom Bonier is coming on. Target Smart saved my sanity around midterms by helping us get a sense of registrations. Thank you Simon.
Another reminder to partner with FT 6. Please ask Courier to interview Jason Berlin.
Check out BYOP -- it's free, Takes only a couple of minutes to send texts on behalf of candidates like Florida senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is running against the demonic incumbent "Sunset" Rick Scott, to get new Democrats registered and flip his seat. We turn into a pumpkin Oct. 7.
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Here's the pitch.
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Question for Simon and/or others with good insight. I (55) live in PA with my wife (60) and our 23-y.o. son. My wife and I are registered Ds, our son registered independent. Almost every day an oversized full color giant Trump postcard arrives in the mail addressed to him. Not one has arrived from Dems or Harris. I'm assuming they're both targeting PA independents vigorously. Would you advise that I try to contact PA Dems to ask what gives? Or should I leave well enough alone and assume the Dems are focused on reaching ppl like our son via other media avenues? I want to live the spirit of worry less, do more, and I'm throwing lots of my time & energy into various postcarding efforts. But I'd love to hear what you'd advise. PS -- the Trump materials consistently scream denails about Project 2025, which has led me to think that the Dem strategy of harping on it is really bothering the Trump campaign. I'm also not sure the Rs constant messaging of "Trump disavows Project 2025!" is a smart move. I mean, vigorous denial in which you keep repeating the words "Trump" and "Project 2025" seems like a good way to make people wonder if you're protesting just a bit too much...
I am writing postcards for Postcards to Swing States. I have many of them going to PA. I was instructed to mail them October 15th. Not sure this answers your question but maybe Dem organizations are sending them later - closer to the election???
Thanks Cindy. No, this doesn't have anything to do with the efforts of Postcards to Swing States or any conservative group similarly sending out postcards (if such groups exist). The postcards my son is getting in the mail are mass-mailers from the PA GOP Trump state campaign. They're 11.5 inches x 6 inches, full color advertisements. A lot of political campaigns send these out in PA. What I noticed was that the PA GOP seems to be sending these several times a week to registered independents, since my son is one. On the other hand, it's possible that he is part of some other demographic they've targeted (perhaps based on his online habits, soc media, etc.) I can't say for sure. I just couldn't tell whether there's reason for concern that Dems don't seem to be going for his vote via the same mass-mailing strategy. But perhaps Dems are focusing much more on internet outreach to his demographic. If Simon suggested I reach out to our state Dems just to give them this intel, I would do it.
Ahhhh I see - more like flyers that are targeted to a certain group that your son falls into.
That is interesting. If you contact PA Dems about this, please let us know what you find out.
This is very worrying. I know the Trump campaign is really pushing hard on young men to try to bring them into the fold, but Dems should be countering it.
They may be countering it but not using mailers. Maybe using a different media strategy, and possibly a better one. I'm not sure how to reach the right person at PA Dems but if I do hear something further I'll let folks here know. I don't want to encourage worrying. I'm staying focused on postcarding.