Even if you didn't get any responses, you still make a difference. You're helping get through the list to maximize the chance that someone on your call team will eventually reach someone. Thank you for your work.
As someone who has phone banked for years, you learn pretty quickly that few people actually pick up. Especially in this day and age when the vast majority of folks don't answer a call from a number they don't recognize (I certainly don't). Phone calls are just one method of "touching" a voter and letting them know we see them, and that their vote counts. Thank you so much for your work, Cypher, you are awesome!
"Do More Worry Less" is our Hopium motto! We are winning but we haven't won yet!
Today's Hopium says "Both the NYT and CNN polls released yesterday have very heavy R weighting, making them far more Republican than many other recent polls."
Bear in mind that as of a few days ago, as per Marist, we were up by 10-12 in AZ, GA, and NC although the R and D vote tallies by registered (or modeled) party were roughly even or had the Rs slightly ahead. This was before we started playing catch-up actually. This suggest that the polls are a very bad map of the true electoral territory. This is in line with the fact that we've been outperforming polls since 2022 and Trump has been underperforming them.
That Maris poll looked promising. But I would like to see far more polling of people who have already voted, as it’s very informative. Perhaps the campaigns are already doing this?
I wouldn't worry too much about it, it's pretty consistent with where it's been, and they're all within the margin of error (even the GOP leaning swing states).
Closing Strong was great this week. Glad to see we're going on offense against third party spoilers. I'm doing everything I can this weekend. I'm nervous but optimistic. Kamala brings it every day and so should we. Let's finish this!!!
The newest Harvard youth poll was released yesterday and it shows numerous good trends for Harris:
- Harris leads Trump by 20 points among RV under 30 (53%-33%) and by 28 points among LV (60%-32%).
- The gender gap has grown from 8 points in the spring to 20 points, driven by Harris's 30-point lead among women. Also, Harris closed the gender gap among young men (Trump +1)
- 59% of Trump supporters say they will "definitely" vote compared to 71% of Harris supporters.
- 50% of LV plan to vote on election day (up from 37% in 2020)
Simon, do you know whether the data bears Daniel out on this one? I have seen some strange recent state polls (in PA) for example (F &M College, in particular) that gave Harris an advantage with "registered voters" but not "likely voters." What's your take on why? Do you think it's an outlier, or does it get at something deeper? And maybe in a way more favorable to Harris?
Actually, I was just asking so I could offer my own analysis. See if I was on the right track. I'm doing the phonebanks regularly, and I plan on continuing to do so!
In addition to red waving the weights, pollsters are also putting their thumb on the likely voter screens, making them more Trump friendly. This was most ridiculously expressed in the recent right-leaning TIPP poll of PA in which about 120 RVs in Philly were reduced to 12 LVs. Not surprisingly, the poll went from Harris +4 for RV to Trump +1 for LV. Some friendly advice from a career statistician: Don’t look at any polls before ED. Even the non-partisan ones are and have been of questionable quality all cycle.
And if you *do* look at them, don"t do so without looking at the crosstabs and the instrument itself--even the "gold standard" NYT/Siena poll has done some really squirrelly and questionable stuff--eg over sampling Republicans and rural voters, showing Harris with much smaller margins with young and Latino voters than specialists in polling these constituencies like Harvard IOP and UnidosUS have been finding (to be fair, some of this could just be the result of the surge of new registrants not yet included in.the voter files they're getting from the states), ignoring relevant tabs (especially those that relate to partisanship) and therefore misinterpreting the import of their data, asking respondents how much they blame Kamala for various things while not asking how much they blame Trump for the same or other things‐‐treating as if he has no record to defend, repeatedly asking respondents what their top issue is as an opejn-ended question (it's a little more than a week before the election, Nate, by now you ought to be able to give people a list + other!), resulting in a list that's diffuse, arbitrary, and unable to tell us anything meaningful about the money question that follows (which candidate can best deal with the issue you consider most important?) etc etc etc
Hope the young group votes. I’m sure with Harris campaign funding advantage and ground game advantage the campaign will do everything to get them out. A little disappointed the battleground gain is only 9 points vs 30 but the EC is our system to elect presidents as unfair as it is.
Thanks for sharing this. Excellent news. Young voters and young women in particular may well save democracy. And we know the Dems are working hard on turn out.
I also read this story this morning by Julian Borger in The Guardian, US Edition. Musk has been visiting Putin for two years. Is this treason? I have no idea.
It’s kind of interesting when someone seems to be a real douchebag at first, and then also turns out to be a real douchebag. Don’t worry, though. We won’t have to deal with him much longer. He absolutely guaranteed that he would be living on Mars in 2019, so by my calculations he’s already been there almost 5 years.
Plus, in a separate story, it looks like Musk, like Trump, violated the Logan Act multiple times by communicating clandestinely with Putin multiple times
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES (just the numbers, no analysis)
(UPDATE 11:30am) More than 38.3 million people have already voted. Over 18.2 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while more than 20 million people have voted Early In-Person. North Carolina is rapidly approaching, and Georgia has exceeded, 50% of its 2020 turnout!
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for eight swing states:
GA 52% 2,614,304
NC 46.7% 2,592,030*
NV 39.2% 552,081
FL 34.8% 3,874,202*
AZ 35.1% 1,199,161
MI 25.5% 1,424,592
WI 21.6% 715,395
PA 18.4% 1,281,847
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
Florida doesn't indicate votes by age. My wife has been working the polls. Virtually everyone she saw was a senior citizen, and our job is to get out the Gen Z vote, which can generate a blue tsunami. Although we are a minority party, we think that millions of "No Party" voters trend heavily with us. And as counterpunchers, Trump underperformed by 13 % in the Republican primary.
I've been text banking the past two days with Black Voters Matter for Florida, and a lot of good responses. Lot's of people already voted, meaning we should have more resources to track down young people.
Thank you for all you’re doing! I’ve been saying that it’s a 3rd of each party here and that if we can close the gap and republicans and independents join us, we have a chance.
Anecdotally, at least, it sure looks like a bigger number than young Black and Latino men defecting to Trump, and I'd definitely rather be counting on Republican detectors to show up than young men of any ethnicity...
I know we got crushed in 22, but Charlie Crist was a bad candidate and no one showed up to vote. We have two important ballot issues and Rick Scott is such an unfavorable candidate, that we can flip it back! 🙏🏽
I heard he has an approval rating only one point higher than Trump's after January 6th--is that true? It also sounds like his $1.5 billion Medicare fraud is finally really getting litigated in any election. Maybe all the frauds Trump has committed are producing a strong allergic reaction/immune response to Scott's?
I think Mucarsel-Powell will be close, but I think it is a stretch based on what I've seen. It would have to be a big polling miss for her to win.
But I would say there is a lot of enthusiasm and visible signs that we will do better than in the past. Crist was a terrible candidate.
One problem this year that I thought Mucarsel-Powell should highlight in her ads (but she didn't) is that Scott would not debate her. I think a debate might've moved the needle and done the trick. She should've hammered him harder on it.
That said, as a FL resident, people generally hate Scott and I'm hoping she pulls off the upset. You never know. Some other local races show a move towards us, so it might be a sign.
I understand that Mitch McConnell did not direct any of his SuperPAC money to Florida (the majority went to OH and MT). This makes me wonder if we really *are* ripe for a Senate upset in FL, especially now that the FL Democrats are better led and funded. OTOH, Mitch might just be thinking “he is rich enough to fund his own race, and he did such a terrible job as NRSC chair so fuck him.”
Rough day canvassing today. Lot of no answers, lot of people shutting the door in my face. Easy to get discouraged.
But Hopium is about the bigger picture, and this group has helped me realize that. We're in the home stretch; we've rounded up the easy voters, and what's left ate the hard nuts to crack, exactly as Simon's been saying all along.
Door knocks also got a little rough in 2022. We won anyway. Just shut out the noise and keep pounding the pavement.
Where are you knocking? What kind of list/universe are you knocking? My experience has always been vast majority of Knick’s are no answers. Do you leave a handwritten note with the lit?
Thank you for everything you're doing. For every "tough" door you hit, that frees up space for another canvasser to hit a "good" door. And some days it's the other way around. Voter contact is a numbers game and you're contributing!!!
So glad you are out there and doing the hard work. At some point (maybe in the afterlife) I suspect you will find that you reached someone through this effort that changed them.
Anyway, I am grateful for your hard work and I agree with your attitude " just shut out the noise and keep pounding the pavement." Those are words of wisdom.
Having a good day on the phone today. Spoke to two different guys who weren't sure they were still registered (Thank, Glenn Youngkin, you jerk!) and was able to get them in touch with the Registrar. Both were really glad to get the call. Those can make up for all the grumpy ones.
This week, their respective owners blocked their Editors at the Los Angeles Times and The Washington from endorsing Kamala Harris for President. This is resulting in significant blowback – including priceless satire from Andy Borowitz:
. "Jeff Bezos Sells Washington Post’s Integrity in Latest Amazon Prime Deal"
SEATTLE (The Borowitz Report)—Urging Prime customers not to miss out, on Friday Amazon founder Jeff Bezos offered to sell the Washington Post’s integrity as a “once-in-a-lifetime Black Friday Deal.”
Calling the Post’s integrity “a signature feature that made this former newspaper great,” the product page for the item listed it at $4.99 with free shipping.
According to the product page, Amazon customers interested in the Post’s integrity were also interested in the Los Angeles Times’s integrity, which was priced at $3.99.
Customers shopping for Bezos’s spine, soul, and human decency got an "Uh oh, something went wrong" error message, indicating that the products did not exist.
(Fear is causing these owners to violate their newspapers’ journalistic and editorial integrity. Out of fear, they are violating Timothy Snyder’s First Rule of fighting tyranny: "Do not obey in advance!")
Can I say that as a former journalist, I do not agree with endorsements in principle? They call back to the days when newspapers were open extensions of a political party rather than objective searches of the truth, and I was relieved when my editor wrote an editorial to that affect every year?
That also was 2005. Thr stakes now ate everything, and for a paper like WaPo whose headline is "democracy dies in darkness".... that's just pathetic.
While I see your point, there are a few things to point out with regards to the Washington Post’s lack of endorsement.
First, WaPo has this year already made endorsements in other races. Second, in both 2016 and 2020, WaPo not only endorsed the Democratic presidential candidate (Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden), but in keeping with the newspaper’s core values gave a scathing characteristic of Donald Trump, clearly warning the nation’s voters against him. Trump is now more extreme and a greater danger than ever. This is the wrong time to suddenly fall silent and abstain from endorsing a presidential candidate.
But don’t take my word for that. Here is a loud and clear statement from 17 of The Washington Post’s columnists, whose political leanings range from conservative to moderate to liberal:
"The newspaper’s refusal to endorse a presidential candidate is a mistake."
"The Washington Post’s decision not to make an endorsement in the presidential campaign is a terrible mistake. It represents an abandonment of the fundamental editorial convictions of the newspaper that we love. This is a moment for the institution to be making clear its commitment to democratic values, the rule of law and international alliances, and the threat that Donald Trump poses to them — the precise points The Post made in endorsing Trump’s opponents in 2016 and 2020. There is no contradiction between The Post’s important role as an independent newspaper and its practice of making political endorsements, both as a matter of guidance to readers and as a statement of core beliefs. That has never been more true than in the current campaign. An independent newspaper might someday choose to back away from making presidential endorsements. But this isn’t the right moment, when one candidate is advocating positions that directly threaten freedom of the press and the values of the Constitution."
In addition, here's a compelling argument for cancellation from journalist Jeremy Fassler. The upshot: "I understand in theory that divorcing these publications from your dollars may harm employees more than they may harm the billionaire owners of The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, Dow Jones media, and too many others to name. But I also believe that unsubscribing is the only course of action we have left to hold these organizations accountable — even if, god forbid, Trump wins." https://jeremyfassler.medium.com/yes-cancel-your-subscriptions-e3e7aade50dc
(A comment said that BBC reports over 20,000 cancellations. And rising, I presume.)
.
I wrote an email directly to Michael Blackmon, the Comments Editor at The Washington Post, who is clearly pained and embarrassed about the decision of his superiors:
Michael Blackmon,
Will you personally please commit to publicizing how many readers are cancelling their subscription in the aftermath of Mr Lewis’ and Mr Bezos’ decision?
Kindly place that number prominently at the top of your Opinions page. That will speak far more loudly than any single comment here – and moreover, it will speak in a language that your owner and publisher/CEO are more likely to comprehend.
Respectfully,
Name
(longtime reader)
PS. I commend you for your respectful note and invitation to dialog!
I cancelled NYT in the wake of their asymetrical response to the Biden debate, and my girlfriend cancelled WaPo yesterday. But I'm wrestling with expanding the boycott to include Amazon. That's a heavy lift for me, I use Amazon quite a bit. Glad to see that Liz Cheney also cancelled WaPo.
The time to step back from endorsing candidates would have been last decade. Not in an obvious ploy or kiss-up to Trump. Even if Bezos’ motives are as pure as the driven snow 😂 😂 😂 the timing is off.
I cancelled my subscription to WaPo. But I've been ruminating on this for a while now, long before these crazy non-endorsement scandals erupted. Maybe it would be healthy for the big mainstream "print" media outlets to end endorsements and to stop participating in polling. I have voted in every election since 1976 and not ONCE has the endorsement of a newspaper ever had any impact on my vote.
I think this is a healthy discussion that should continue past this election.
Interesting perspective. I hadn't thought about publications like the Post, Times and LA Times also have a responsibility to their local constituencies. Thanks for bringing this up, Travis. Again, I think a healthy discussion is in order.
After this election day, of course! First things first.
cancelled Wapo. I hope that Harris/Walz can have a large event featuring joe & jill, obama & michele,
bill & hill, KH & doug, tim and mrs. walz. so the country can see our great presidents and future president! we should be proud of all these presidents. the repubs cant do this. we can! they are our legacy team!!! lets show them off, all together, in a giant rally, showing unity, history, future!!!
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans' organizations, historical sites.
Vote vets has already flipped many 2016 and 2020 Trump voters.
3. It's up to people like you who are on social media.... when you comment you'll see what I mean. Many of the people involved are dependents, family members, friends and neighbors who are interested in the military and or national security and for whom this is news. Takes repetition and substantiation by people they trust.
I am a Vietnam combat veteran -- probably the lone survivor from my units. I have been a "veteran" since Jan 21, 1968. The grandchildren (or great-grandchildren) of my late colleagues want to hear from someone like you.
When you post on say a FB history site, you may start a conversation with potential voters who may flip on this basis.... I'm getting a number of positive comments.
4. Mark Cuban reports that Polish Americans for Harris is out and about in Pittsburgh. It started in Pittsburgh....
Join Swifties for Kamala & Voters of Tomorrow in calling & texting battle-ground states while watching the Eras Tour! Calling into North Carolina before the show & texting into Ohio, Florida!!!, and Arizona to make sure folks have a plan to vote. A training will be provided before every shift.
I am a member of DPNM Veterans & Military Families Caucus. You might like their FB posts. https://www.facebook.com/NMVets There's a sign that says "I'm a Veteran, not a sucker or a loser."
Took my 93 year old mom to vote early in NYC. Cheers for some new voters. Poll watchers said over 500 have voted already, expecting about 1k. Fetterman interview in NYT this morning sobering but ultimately hopeful. Straight shooter. DMWL.
After reading it, it's sort of a nothing burger. Like....of course Trump is popular among rural voters and among Republicans? I don't understand why this is news of any sort. Isn't Fetterman there to try and eat away at those margins? Maybe I'm confused.
I think Fetterman's saying that to turn more people out. Because what he's saying is true, but he's not really saying anything of substance. Like the other said, of course Trump is popular in rural PA. But is he more popular than he was in 2020 is the real question.
The fact that he's not saying THAT suggests to me it's a turnout stimulator, much like Slotkin's comments about Michigan might be.
He says he is - based on his social media, he has been hitting the rural areas with an emphasis on maximizing Harris support to trim the margins. Seems like a good strategy and he seems like the right guy to do it.
This morning I woke up at 4 am. My son had sent me texts overnight: Netanyahu has attacked Iran.
Don't both countries have the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons? . Now more than ever we need a smart, intelligent, healthy woman, VP Kamala Harris, as President with Governor Tim Walz at her side. How could any half way intelligent person vote for an avowed fascist obviously into dementia who sundowns regularly, (Sundowning is defined by the Mayo Clinic and the Alzheimer's Association as someone in the mid to late stages of dementia who exhibits a loss of ability to speak clearly, paces and wanders around, expresses hostility and anger towards others) How truly frightening to think of who would become President: The misogynist ugly weird man who wrote the introduction to Project 2025 as his running mate? Can these actual facts be used in our campaigns, rallies, town halls, phone banking and canvassing? Who wants the other side to try to pull out this election with Russian interfernce? Don't believe the polls. Do whatever you can for the next ten days to get everyone to vote up and down the ballot for our candidates. Talk to you family, friends and neighbors. We need every single vote.
Linda, remind your son we had a nuclear deal plan with Iran when Obama was president. We were able to inspect all facilities every month. When trump came into office he canceled the Iran Nuclear Deal! So dumb and dangerous. We had Iran under control before trump!
Even if you didn't get any responses, you still make a difference. You're helping get through the list to maximize the chance that someone on your call team will eventually reach someone. Thank you for your work.
As someone who has phone banked for years, you learn pretty quickly that few people actually pick up. Especially in this day and age when the vast majority of folks don't answer a call from a number they don't recognize (I certainly don't). Phone calls are just one method of "touching" a voter and letting them know we see them, and that their vote counts. Thank you so much for your work, Cypher, you are awesome!
As someone who has done phonebanks before (national and local), this is 100% right.
"Do More Worry Less" is our Hopium motto! We are winning but we haven't won yet!
Today's Hopium says "Both the NYT and CNN polls released yesterday have very heavy R weighting, making them far more Republican than many other recent polls."
Bear in mind that as of a few days ago, as per Marist, we were up by 10-12 in AZ, GA, and NC although the R and D vote tallies by registered (or modeled) party were roughly even or had the Rs slightly ahead. This was before we started playing catch-up actually. This suggest that the polls are a very bad map of the true electoral territory. This is in line with the fact that we've been outperforming polls since 2022 and Trump has been underperforming them.
That Maris poll looked promising. But I would like to see far more polling of people who have already voted, as it’s very informative. Perhaps the campaigns are already doing this?
I voted for Kamala. Let's poll the rest of Hopium and publish the results. It would be just as reliable as those red wave polls. 🙃
It looks fairly stable to me
James just DMWL and all will be good.
I wouldn't worry too much about it, it's pretty consistent with where it's been, and they're all within the margin of error (even the GOP leaning swing states).
The one Simon posted? That been pretty consistent for weeks. Why would it worry you now?
Closing Strong was great this week. Glad to see we're going on offense against third party spoilers. I'm doing everything I can this weekend. I'm nervous but optimistic. Kamala brings it every day and so should we. Let's finish this!!!
The newest Harvard youth poll was released yesterday and it shows numerous good trends for Harris:
- Harris leads Trump by 20 points among RV under 30 (53%-33%) and by 28 points among LV (60%-32%).
- The gender gap has grown from 8 points in the spring to 20 points, driven by Harris's 30-point lead among women. Also, Harris closed the gender gap among young men (Trump +1)
- 59% of Trump supporters say they will "definitely" vote compared to 71% of Harris supporters.
- 50% of LV plan to vote on election day (up from 37% in 2020)
Here is the link if you wanna get more details: https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/49th-edition-fall-2024
Gen Z have never voted previously and therefore are probably considered "unlikely" and uncounted by the polls.
Very good point!
Simon, do you know whether the data bears Daniel out on this one? I have seen some strange recent state polls (in PA) for example (F &M College, in particular) that gave Harris an advantage with "registered voters" but not "likely voters." What's your take on why? Do you think it's an outlier, or does it get at something deeper? And maybe in a way more favorable to Harris?
Just DMWL and all will be good.
Actually, I was just asking so I could offer my own analysis. See if I was on the right track. I'm doing the phonebanks regularly, and I plan on continuing to do so!
THANKS David!!! We got this! I'm so proud of you and everyone on Team Hopium that I honestly get choked up thinking about it.
In addition to red waving the weights, pollsters are also putting their thumb on the likely voter screens, making them more Trump friendly. This was most ridiculously expressed in the recent right-leaning TIPP poll of PA in which about 120 RVs in Philly were reduced to 12 LVs. Not surprisingly, the poll went from Harris +4 for RV to Trump +1 for LV. Some friendly advice from a career statistician: Don’t look at any polls before ED. Even the non-partisan ones are and have been of questionable quality all cycle.
That's what I thought, and it's good to hear a career statistician say that.
And if you *do* look at them, don"t do so without looking at the crosstabs and the instrument itself--even the "gold standard" NYT/Siena poll has done some really squirrelly and questionable stuff--eg over sampling Republicans and rural voters, showing Harris with much smaller margins with young and Latino voters than specialists in polling these constituencies like Harvard IOP and UnidosUS have been finding (to be fair, some of this could just be the result of the surge of new registrants not yet included in.the voter files they're getting from the states), ignoring relevant tabs (especially those that relate to partisanship) and therefore misinterpreting the import of their data, asking respondents how much they blame Kamala for various things while not asking how much they blame Trump for the same or other things‐‐treating as if he has no record to defend, repeatedly asking respondents what their top issue is as an opejn-ended question (it's a little more than a week before the election, Nate, by now you ought to be able to give people a list + other!), resulting in a list that's diffuse, arbitrary, and unable to tell us anything meaningful about the money question that follows (which candidate can best deal with the issue you consider most important?) etc etc etc
Thank you, Arne! Wonderful news
Thank you Arne, this is so helpful!!
Great stats! Also affirms Simon & other analysts’ reads on EV in states like GA, NV & PA.
Hope the young group votes. I’m sure with Harris campaign funding advantage and ground game advantage the campaign will do everything to get them out. A little disappointed the battleground gain is only 9 points vs 30 but the EC is our system to elect presidents as unfair as it is.
Thanks for sharing this. Excellent news. Young voters and young women in particular may well save democracy. And we know the Dems are working hard on turn out.
THANK YOU for this!
As Simon point out, Musk broke the law. Gift link to Washington Post exclusive:
"Elon Musk, enemy of ‘open borders,’ launched his career while working illegally"
https://wapo.st/4e0PdyI
Thank you for the link.
I read that story in WaPo this morning. Did he ever actually become a citizen?
He is now. Musk became a US citizen in 2002.
I also read this story this morning by Julian Borger in The Guardian, US Edition. Musk has been visiting Putin for two years. Is this treason? I have no idea.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/oct/25/elon-musk-has-been-in-regular-contact-with-putin-for-two-years-say-reports
Really angers me how these guys can openly flaunt law breaking and people are like "pfft, of course they did."
It’s kind of interesting when someone seems to be a real douchebag at first, and then also turns out to be a real douchebag. Don’t worry, though. We won’t have to deal with him much longer. He absolutely guaranteed that he would be living on Mars in 2019, so by my calculations he’s already been there almost 5 years.
Lol. He certainly acts like someone who thinks he"s only subject to Martian gravity on stage :D One giant leap indeed
Plus, in a separate story, it looks like Musk, like Trump, violated the Logan Act multiple times by communicating clandestinely with Putin multiple times
Dropped off my last 200 postcards today. Just donated to North Carolina and Arizona now onto phone banking for Pennsylvania.! Let’s go everyone!
Keep doing the Lord's work!!
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES (just the numbers, no analysis)
(UPDATE 11:30am) More than 38.3 million people have already voted. Over 18.2 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while more than 20 million people have voted Early In-Person. North Carolina is rapidly approaching, and Georgia has exceeded, 50% of its 2020 turnout!
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for eight swing states:
GA 52% 2,614,304
NC 46.7% 2,592,030*
NV 39.2% 552,081
FL 34.8% 3,874,202*
AZ 35.1% 1,199,161
MI 25.5% 1,424,592
WI 21.6% 715,395
PA 18.4% 1,281,847
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Florida doesn't indicate votes by age. My wife has been working the polls. Virtually everyone she saw was a senior citizen, and our job is to get out the Gen Z vote, which can generate a blue tsunami. Although we are a minority party, we think that millions of "No Party" voters trend heavily with us. And as counterpunchers, Trump underperformed by 13 % in the Republican primary.
I've been text banking the past two days with Black Voters Matter for Florida, and a lot of good responses. Lot's of people already voted, meaning we should have more resources to track down young people.
They’re a great organization—one I contribute to—so good there’ll be more resources re: young people!
I contribute too, and their texting program is really well run, makes me feel confident that my donations are being effectively used.
Thank you, Alice! ☺️💙💙💙
I read recently that 75% of GenZ Harris voters said they would “definitely” vote and GOP % was significantly lower. 🤞
FT 6 is texting to 1,210,938 unregistered folk in MI this afternoon.
I would like to join this effort. Can you send the link? Thanks!
Finished. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/?show_all_events=true&tag_ids=22573
That’s great news, Fran.
Thank you for all you’re doing! I’ve been saying that it’s a 3rd of each party here and that if we can close the gap and republicans and independents join us, we have a chance.
Thank you for sharing, ArticStones. Wish there was more emphasis put on the Florida senate race:(
Just DMWL and all will be good.
Other key states, four included because of vital Senate races:
MT 39.8% 243,341
TX 37.7% 4,274,266
VA 30.3% 1,369,872
OH 23.4% 1,398,807
NE 21.2% 205,324
Good to see the Dems ahead. One thing we don't know is how many Rs are disgusted with Trump and voting for Kamala.
So true, John!
Anecdotally, at least, it sure looks like a bigger number than young Black and Latino men defecting to Trump, and I'd definitely rather be counting on Republican detectors to show up than young men of any ethnicity...
I know we got crushed in 22, but Charlie Crist was a bad candidate and no one showed up to vote. We have two important ballot issues and Rick Scott is such an unfavorable candidate, that we can flip it back! 🙏🏽
I heard he has an approval rating only one point higher than Trump's after January 6th--is that true? It also sounds like his $1.5 billion Medicare fraud is finally really getting litigated in any election. Maybe all the frauds Trump has committed are producing a strong allergic reaction/immune response to Scott's?
I think Mucarsel-Powell will be close, but I think it is a stretch based on what I've seen. It would have to be a big polling miss for her to win.
But I would say there is a lot of enthusiasm and visible signs that we will do better than in the past. Crist was a terrible candidate.
One problem this year that I thought Mucarsel-Powell should highlight in her ads (but she didn't) is that Scott would not debate her. I think a debate might've moved the needle and done the trick. She should've hammered him harder on it.
That said, as a FL resident, people generally hate Scott and I'm hoping she pulls off the upset. You never know. Some other local races show a move towards us, so it might be a sign.
I understand that Mitch McConnell did not direct any of his SuperPAC money to Florida (the majority went to OH and MT). This makes me wonder if we really *are* ripe for a Senate upset in FL, especially now that the FL Democrats are better led and funded. OTOH, Mitch might just be thinking “he is rich enough to fund his own race, and he did such a terrible job as NRSC chair so fuck him.”
We’ll see!
What Mitch McConnell would secretly love is to see Rick Scott lose – and for the Republicans to still regain the Senate majority.
I agree!
Rough day canvassing today. Lot of no answers, lot of people shutting the door in my face. Easy to get discouraged.
But Hopium is about the bigger picture, and this group has helped me realize that. We're in the home stretch; we've rounded up the easy voters, and what's left ate the hard nuts to crack, exactly as Simon's been saying all along.
Door knocks also got a little rough in 2022. We won anyway. Just shut out the noise and keep pounding the pavement.
You’re doing great work Jason. Remember like Kamala says “hard work is good work”
Thank you for what you're doing!
Thank you for getting after it. Appreciate you and everyone knocking on the hard doors!
Thank you for working to save our democracy, Jason! Wish I could buy you a beer later
Hopefully you're in Pittsburgh. ;)
I’m in CA but I can send you beer!
You’re a hero 🦸
Thanks for your work!!
You’re the reason we are winning this
It can be brutal. Thank you!!!!
Thank you for your work ! People like you are why we have this !
Where are you knocking? What kind of list/universe are you knocking? My experience has always been vast majority of Knick’s are no answers. Do you leave a handwritten note with the lit?
Knicks?
*knocks
I'm in Pittsburgh.
Thank you for fighting the good fight!
Thank you so much for your efforts! You’re a true patriot in my view.
Thank you for everything you're doing. For every "tough" door you hit, that frees up space for another canvasser to hit a "good" door. And some days it's the other way around. Voter contact is a numbers game and you're contributing!!!
I'm so sorry for the rough day, Jason!
So glad you are out there and doing the hard work. At some point (maybe in the afterlife) I suspect you will find that you reached someone through this effort that changed them.
Anyway, I am grateful for your hard work and I agree with your attitude " just shut out the noise and keep pounding the pavement." Those are words of wisdom.
Thank you for your hard work!
Thanks everyone. Doesn't always feel like I'm making a difference, but you remind me I am.
Having a good day on the phone today. Spoke to two different guys who weren't sure they were still registered (Thank, Glenn Youngkin, you jerk!) and was able to get them in touch with the Registrar. Both were really glad to get the call. Those can make up for all the grumpy ones.
Just donated to Tester in Montana
I'm in Montana and so appreciate you helping out Tester. (I think he will win, BTW)
My undying thanks to Simon for his hard work and thoughtful presentations everyday, and to this community for helping me tame my anxiety
This week, their respective owners blocked their Editors at the Los Angeles Times and The Washington from endorsing Kamala Harris for President. This is resulting in significant blowback – including priceless satire from Andy Borowitz:
. "Jeff Bezos Sells Washington Post’s Integrity in Latest Amazon Prime Deal"
SEATTLE (The Borowitz Report)—Urging Prime customers not to miss out, on Friday Amazon founder Jeff Bezos offered to sell the Washington Post’s integrity as a “once-in-a-lifetime Black Friday Deal.”
Calling the Post’s integrity “a signature feature that made this former newspaper great,” the product page for the item listed it at $4.99 with free shipping.
According to the product page, Amazon customers interested in the Post’s integrity were also interested in the Los Angeles Times’s integrity, which was priced at $3.99.
Customers shopping for Bezos’s spine, soul, and human decency got an "Uh oh, something went wrong" error message, indicating that the products did not exist.
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/jeff-bezos-sells-washington-posts
(Fear is causing these owners to violate their newspapers’ journalistic and editorial integrity. Out of fear, they are violating Timothy Snyder’s First Rule of fighting tyranny: "Do not obey in advance!")
Can I say that as a former journalist, I do not agree with endorsements in principle? They call back to the days when newspapers were open extensions of a political party rather than objective searches of the truth, and I was relieved when my editor wrote an editorial to that affect every year?
That also was 2005. Thr stakes now ate everything, and for a paper like WaPo whose headline is "democracy dies in darkness".... that's just pathetic.
While I see your point, there are a few things to point out with regards to the Washington Post’s lack of endorsement.
First, WaPo has this year already made endorsements in other races. Second, in both 2016 and 2020, WaPo not only endorsed the Democratic presidential candidate (Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden), but in keeping with the newspaper’s core values gave a scathing characteristic of Donald Trump, clearly warning the nation’s voters against him. Trump is now more extreme and a greater danger than ever. This is the wrong time to suddenly fall silent and abstain from endorsing a presidential candidate.
But don’t take my word for that. Here is a loud and clear statement from 17 of The Washington Post’s columnists, whose political leanings range from conservative to moderate to liberal:
https://wapo.st/3YBAy8E
POST COLUMNISTS RESPOND
"The newspaper’s refusal to endorse a presidential candidate is a mistake."
"The Washington Post’s decision not to make an endorsement in the presidential campaign is a terrible mistake. It represents an abandonment of the fundamental editorial convictions of the newspaper that we love. This is a moment for the institution to be making clear its commitment to democratic values, the rule of law and international alliances, and the threat that Donald Trump poses to them — the precise points The Post made in endorsing Trump’s opponents in 2016 and 2020. There is no contradiction between The Post’s important role as an independent newspaper and its practice of making political endorsements, both as a matter of guidance to readers and as a statement of core beliefs. That has never been more true than in the current campaign. An independent newspaper might someday choose to back away from making presidential endorsements. But this isn’t the right moment, when one candidate is advocating positions that directly threaten freedom of the press and the values of the Constitution."
In addition, here's a compelling argument for cancellation from journalist Jeremy Fassler. The upshot: "I understand in theory that divorcing these publications from your dollars may harm employees more than they may harm the billionaire owners of The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, Dow Jones media, and too many others to name. But I also believe that unsubscribing is the only course of action we have left to hold these organizations accountable — even if, god forbid, Trump wins." https://jeremyfassler.medium.com/yes-cancel-your-subscriptions-e3e7aade50dc
(A comment said that BBC reports over 20,000 cancellations. And rising, I presume.)
.
I wrote an email directly to Michael Blackmon, the Comments Editor at The Washington Post, who is clearly pained and embarrassed about the decision of his superiors:
Michael Blackmon,
Will you personally please commit to publicizing how many readers are cancelling their subscription in the aftermath of Mr Lewis’ and Mr Bezos’ decision?
Kindly place that number prominently at the top of your Opinions page. That will speak far more loudly than any single comment here – and moreover, it will speak in a language that your owner and publisher/CEO are more likely to comprehend.
Respectfully,
Name
(longtime reader)
PS. I commend you for your respectful note and invitation to dialog!
I cancelled NYT in the wake of their asymetrical response to the Biden debate, and my girlfriend cancelled WaPo yesterday. But I'm wrestling with expanding the boycott to include Amazon. That's a heavy lift for me, I use Amazon quite a bit. Glad to see that Liz Cheney also cancelled WaPo.
The time to step back from endorsing candidates would have been last decade. Not in an obvious ploy or kiss-up to Trump. Even if Bezos’ motives are as pure as the driven snow 😂 😂 😂 the timing is off.
I cancelled my subscription to WaPo. But I've been ruminating on this for a while now, long before these crazy non-endorsement scandals erupted. Maybe it would be healthy for the big mainstream "print" media outlets to end endorsements and to stop participating in polling. I have voted in every election since 1976 and not ONCE has the endorsement of a newspaper ever had any impact on my vote.
I think this is a healthy discussion that should continue past this election.
I did not need the Post to tell me to vote for Kamala. But I did rely on Post endorsements for local DC races.
Interesting perspective. I hadn't thought about publications like the Post, Times and LA Times also have a responsibility to their local constituencies. Thanks for bringing this up, Travis. Again, I think a healthy discussion is in order.
After this election day, of course! First things first.
Andy is a life (and sanity) saver!
cancelled Wapo. I hope that Harris/Walz can have a large event featuring joe & jill, obama & michele,
bill & hill, KH & doug, tim and mrs. walz. so the country can see our great presidents and future president! we should be proud of all these presidents. the repubs cant do this. we can! they are our legacy team!!! lets show them off, all together, in a giant rally, showing unity, history, future!!!
Me, too.
REPRISE:
1. Uncle Sam needs you! https://www.mobilize.us/ (And me.)
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans' organizations, historical sites.
Vote vets has already flipped many 2016 and 2020 Trump voters.
3. It's up to people like you who are on social media.... when you comment you'll see what I mean. Many of the people involved are dependents, family members, friends and neighbors who are interested in the military and or national security and for whom this is news. Takes repetition and substantiation by people they trust.
I am a Vietnam combat veteran -- probably the lone survivor from my units. I have been a "veteran" since Jan 21, 1968. The grandchildren (or great-grandchildren) of my late colleagues want to hear from someone like you.
When you post on say a FB history site, you may start a conversation with potential voters who may flip on this basis.... I'm getting a number of positive comments.
4. Mark Cuban reports that Polish Americans for Harris is out and about in Pittsburgh. It started in Pittsburgh....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yeb08cbUswk
Remember: "Polls don’t vote – but Poles most certainly do!"
Join Swifties for Kamala & Voters of Tomorrow in calling & texting battle-ground states while watching the Eras Tour! Calling into North Carolina before the show & texting into Ohio, Florida!!!, and Arizona to make sure folks have a plan to vote. A training will be provided before every shift.
https://www.mobilize.us/votersoftomorrow/event/725870/
Also BYOP is still registering new Democrats in MI, WI, NC, NV. https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Put the loser and suckers and Hitler did some good things in a FB post yesterday - very good response so far
I can name two good things Hitler did:
1) He put some good wildlife protection laws on the books.
2) Hitler killed Adolf Hitler.
I am a member of DPNM Veterans & Military Families Caucus. You might like their FB posts. https://www.facebook.com/NMVets There's a sign that says "I'm a Veteran, not a sucker or a loser."
Thanks. I'm so old I remember Har Brack High School, Natrona Heights.
My family went to St. Ladislaus!
Took my 93 year old mom to vote early in NYC. Cheers for some new voters. Poll watchers said over 500 have voted already, expecting about 1k. Fetterman interview in NYT this morning sobering but ultimately hopeful. Straight shooter. DMWL.
What’s the jist from Fetterman? His usual “trump is popular in rural PA - Harris has to scrap for every vote” message?
Yes
After reading it, it's sort of a nothing burger. Like....of course Trump is popular among rural voters and among Republicans? I don't understand why this is news of any sort. Isn't Fetterman there to try and eat away at those margins? Maybe I'm confused.
I think Fetterman's saying that to turn more people out. Because what he's saying is true, but he's not really saying anything of substance. Like the other said, of course Trump is popular in rural PA. But is he more popular than he was in 2020 is the real question.
The fact that he's not saying THAT suggests to me it's a turnout stimulator, much like Slotkin's comments about Michigan might be.
Is Fetterman putting his Senate Break to good use? I hope he is out there campaigning strongly and intensely for Kamala Harris!
He says he is - based on his social media, he has been hitting the rural areas with an emphasis on maximizing Harris support to trim the margins. Seems like a good strategy and he seems like the right guy to do it.
That’s great to hear!
This morning I woke up at 4 am. My son had sent me texts overnight: Netanyahu has attacked Iran.
Don't both countries have the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons? . Now more than ever we need a smart, intelligent, healthy woman, VP Kamala Harris, as President with Governor Tim Walz at her side. How could any half way intelligent person vote for an avowed fascist obviously into dementia who sundowns regularly, (Sundowning is defined by the Mayo Clinic and the Alzheimer's Association as someone in the mid to late stages of dementia who exhibits a loss of ability to speak clearly, paces and wanders around, expresses hostility and anger towards others) How truly frightening to think of who would become President: The misogynist ugly weird man who wrote the introduction to Project 2025 as his running mate? Can these actual facts be used in our campaigns, rallies, town halls, phone banking and canvassing? Who wants the other side to try to pull out this election with Russian interfernce? Don't believe the polls. Do whatever you can for the next ten days to get everyone to vote up and down the ballot for our candidates. Talk to you family, friends and neighbors. We need every single vote.
Linda, remind your son we had a nuclear deal plan with Iran when Obama was president. We were able to inspect all facilities every month. When trump came into office he canceled the Iran Nuclear Deal! So dumb and dangerous. We had Iran under control before trump!