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This is all good, and I hope it's true that Americans aren't as down on the economy as some surveys seem to show. But as we start to gear up the 2024 campaign, I'd love to hear more about how to actually approach voters - what should the message be?

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Voters vote for the future not the past.

IMO, Biden's economic message should highlight the major benefits his economic policies are delivering to the American people today but MOST importantly, emphasize that much more work needs to be done to proivide opportunities and support for American families in need. A BIG win with a Democratic Congress and Joe Biden can deliver these starting in 2025.

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author

Don't agree with this. As an incumbent, if you can't say you've made things better then there is no reason to re-elect you. It's a threshold question in my mind.

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Simon, I think we agree. The first part of my comment says exactly that Biden's message to voters must say what he's done to date. The layout what he'll do starting in 2025.

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Dec 8, 2023·edited Dec 8, 2023

The number I have been looking at this week is how low the number of Layoffs for Biden's term has been. He is averaging 1.5 million layoffs/discharges per month, which is shockingly low. Trump Pre-pandemic averaged 1.815 million per month.

Which means Biden is overseeing a time where people are keeping their jobs longer, and Productivity and GDP are improving likely because if it. As things stand, Biden has overseen 10 million fewer layoffs at this point in his presidency than Trump did.

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Here's one add'l economic indicator you can add to the list:

The price of regular gas is now $2.95-$3.05/gal on at stations on the stateline between Massachusettes and Rhode Island.. Go Joe...This should be a feel good story in the press..

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Gas is $2.55 in south Texas right now.

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Yay! for another good jobs report. And here's another piece of good news. "Americans are increasingly feeling better about inflation." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-expectations-hit-lowest-level-in-more-than-two-years-160047827.html

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Sounds great! Thanks for the link!

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Any postcard writers out there? Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) has launched their campaign for the special election to replace George Santos. Postcard instructions are to mail as you go, but no later than Feb. 2.

The special election is Feb 13th and the Dems have selected Tom Suozzi as their candidate. (He held this seat for 6 years before launching a campaign for Goveror which he lost to Kathy Hochul). Early voting will be Feb 3 - 11th.

PSA: USPS is raising the prices of stamps again in mid- January by 2 cents for 1st class and postcard stamps.

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Thanks for heads up on stamps. I missed getting in before last time because Covid. Will hike through sleet and ice to get stamps this time!

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If you want to work or have a productive economy, vote blue.

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I will use this information in support of Biden, but I know I will get vociferous push back. Does anyone have ideas as to what the pushback might be, so I am prepared to address it with facts? This comes to mind because I know a lot of people are upset about food prices for example. If one is having trouble buying enough food, it doesn't matter how many jobs were created.

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author

see the piece for how to address food prices; and of course it matters how many jobs were created, that people are working and making money, and that inflation has come way down. It all matters.

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The way I handle that is to just deliver the good news… And then, when someone pushes back, I just say, “yeah, there’s always more room for improvement, but compared to where we were, I’m really pleased with the progress we’ve made.“ You don’t need to oversell it in my opinion… You just need to plant a seed which then gives them permission to consider an alternate perspective from the one they’re hearing all the time in the media and possibly from cranky Maga people out and about whose sole purpose in life is to trash anything and everything the Democrats do. You can acknowledge the reality that more is left to do when they point out something that isn’t perfect, well also affirming the reality that a lot of good has happened and a lot of things have improved, and you don’t have to “win them over” in the moment....just make them aware that the gloom and doom isn’t a universally held opinion or fact. Good luck Darrell! 😎🇺🇸

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Hi Darrell,

I was shocked the first time I heard “ we were all going to have new jobs available after Covid so giving Biden credit for millions of jobs isn’t accurate. He inherited them!?!? Huh?

Anyway I came up with reminding them that all the financial analysts were predicting we were going to “ fall over the cliff” in a recession. They either believed that completely and then there were a few moderates who cautioned giving the steps taken, time to take effect. Now that we’ve been pulled away from the cliff edge even the negative financial pundits are giving credit. Biden’s Admin didn’t “inherit” a lot of jobs; he supported business from going out of business, worked on the fading supply chain issue asap,supported families from losing their home or rental. All of those interventions pulled us off the cliff! Not everyone and not all businesses but enough to stabilize. They didn’t understand the severity, hadn’t believed it but I just said don’t believe me, do your own research . But beware there’s a lot of right wing BS out there so look for facts, not just opinions.

Our discussions had impact, opened a little wedge, a little thoughtfulness. Wasn’t shooting for conversion just an open discussion.I listened more than I talked.

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WaPo headline about this good news is the rather negative: "US adds jobs in November as labor market remains slow but steady." However , two hours earlier the headline was positive: "Labor Market is Slowing But Healthy with Strength in a Few Key Sectors." (This according to a commenter in the comments section.) WaPo got hammered in the comment section as reader after reader pointed out how the latest headline, unlike the former, muddies the story with a negative comment that isn't supported by the story itself. And several commenters said they would likely drop their subscription.

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I’ve noticed that WaPo has begun framing way too many stories with a decided right-wing bent. See that Editorial Board article where they basically told liberal women that unless we start dating Trump voters, society would be in trouble. Imagine framing the issue of conservative males being unattractive partners to a majority of women as a problem for THE WOMEN to solve by basically sucking it up and marrying men who don’t see them as deserving of equal rights. I’m seriously considering canceling my subscription, there’s only a handful of columnists I still read there…

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Yup. I've noticed the same thing. Distressing. I used to live in the DC area and liked and respected WaPo reporting, editorials and their responsible headlines. I'm not happy with many of their editorial writers now, nor am I happy with their headline writers. They seem to always find a way to turn good news for Biden into a "but" or "on the other hand" story, no matter that the article does not supports the headline.

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Hi. I just read that editorial piece in the WaPo ("If attitudes don’t shift, a political dating mismatch will threaten marriage 11/22/2023) -- and nowhere does it say or suggest that women should be the ones to compromise. Not sure where you got that impression.

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The article’s premise was based upon and quoted a report from the Institute for Family Studies, so it was biased from the jump. But here’s a couple quotes from the article:

“A 2021 survey of college students found that 71 percent of Democrats would not date someone with opposing views…This mismatch means that someone will need to compromise.”

The article says that there’s a mismatch among white Gen Z (and since only 52% of Gen Z is white, they’ve already left half of the generation out of this thesis)- women are liberal, men are conservative. And while conservative men will date liberal woman, 71% of liberal woman won’t date conservative men. So who are they suggesting needs to compromise? The conservative men who are already interested in dating liberal woman? Or the 71% of liberal women who don’t want to date these men? Because the thesis of this article is that heterosexual marriage makes people happiest/is best (IFS is very against gay marriage and believe it is harmful to children and society, so again- this article is basing its whole thesis around the conclusions from a right-wing organization) and relies on information from the Institute for Family Studies to back this up.

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I think that it is good to push-back in comments or by letters to the editor when the Washington Post, the New York Times and even the Wall Street Journal offer negative takes on straight news stories. Correcting the record is important and I think part of "being louder" is aggressively pushing back on all of the right leaning commenters out there. I have digital subscriptions to all of the above publications and rarely a day goes by when I do not comment on articles on one or more of those publications. If everybody does this a little bit, in aggregate WE TOGETHER CAN HAVE A LARGE AFFECT.

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I dropped my NY Times subscription, but I do exactly as you describe in the comments section of the Post. Sometimes I feel like I'm preaching to the choir, but you never know who will be convinced by a factual argument. I always try and include a link that backs up my point.

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New commenter here just wanting to say thank you!

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Welcome to the party Maurice! 😎🇺🇸

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Yes, thank you. This positive information is so important for us to know and share!

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Dec 8, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Simon, a friend stopped by today, bearing gifts and a question. He is deeply concerned about the deeply red district his family in NY lives in, and wanted to know if I had any suggestions on how he could help in the congressional elections there. So I sat down with him in front of the computer, and together we explored the NY political landscape, using some of the various data sources available- many of which I've learned from you. We looked at which party held which districts, and now long those districts had been held by that party. We looked at the candidates in the various places and what they brought with them. And I showed him how to analyze the potential in those districts. I started him off with the data, and worked our way through the kind of gentle messaging that reaches people.

He picked up on the process very quickly, and when I explained that at this point, how we vote and how we use our energies is a strategic matter, he really got it. By the time he left, he had aligned his expectations not with trying to elect an unknown blue candidate in a solidly red district. Instead he had found two districts for which he could contribute his energies to encourage a solid blue candidate who had a chance, thereby increasing the number of Dem reps in the Congress. If they succeed, there would be more people in Congress who could help further the interests of the blue voters in his family's district. He was excited- he had not thought of things in that way before! Now has a plan for actions he can do that can, with others, help turn our Congress into the kind of working institution we deserve.

This is one of the most satisfying things I've done this season.

I'm reconsidering the role I should be playing in this election. My town is resistant to change. I feel like I'm spinning my wheels. I set in motion a process for building a vibrant town meeting, but believe I need to step back from the cliques and the tender egos. There is a lot of potential here, but I have come to feel that I am giving up the best of what I can do just to get people to get out of their silos. My state will be fine.

So I'm giving a lot of thought about moving forward with the things I am strongest at, and reclaiming myself while I am at it. I haven't made up my mind yet. County meeting coming up, and then I'll decide. For me, this is a spiritual journey of sorts, though not the kind that many of the far-right "christians" are trying to define. It's simply being true to the core of myself, and my community, all the way to the Constitution, with the skills that I am best at.

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Dec 9, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Wow. You are doing amazing work!

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Dec 9, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Thank you so much for the validation! And the rest of you who clicked "like".

It really is a whole lot of us doing this kind of small thing that will change the political atmosphere we are in. It's all of us together who collectively are doing amazing work.

It was all those folks writing post cards and letters and working one on one during the last election that motivated me to rethink how I can be most effective, given my current situation. I am making a difficult decision because I hate to back away from a commitment I made, but all those folks helped me rethink how I can be most effective.

I honor and respect the people who do the party work, because that kind of organizing is critical, important, and a lot of good work is being done in other towns in my state. But despite my hopes, it doesn't look like a good fit for me. Maybe I'll change my mind, if enough people decide to come forward after the holidays. We'll see. Right now I feel like a spark has been lit in me, illuminating something else that I can contribute.

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Dec 9, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

In 2018 I retired and decided to up my activism both in terms of donating to campaigns and helping out phone-banking and canvassing for the Democratic candidate for my gerrymandered house district (the old NC-09 which ended up with a GOP scandal related to ballot harvesting). We came close to winning the house race, but my out-of-state donations were not strategic and I realized I (and a lot of other donors) had been tilting at windmills.

In 2020, I got involved in my local Swing Left chapter which led to my involvement with Vote Forward (which analyzes which districts are the most winnable). We had socially distanced letter-writing parties as well parties on Zoom, since that was peak Covid. I also phonebanked and wrote postcards to the NC statehouse candidates that Swing Left judged had the best chance of winning. NC is heavily gerrymandered, so our goal was to prevent the GOP from getting a veto-proof majority. My results were much more positive, so that is the approach I continue to take - rely on more politically savvy people to point me in the right direction and then have me provide the grassroots labor plus some $$. PLus spreading the word to others on how they can get involved!

For any one interested, Swing Left has published their list of flippable seats in the US House along with 6 Democratic seats we need to hold. It can be found here: https://swingleft.org/p/house.

One of their "Hold" targets is Don Davis in NC-01, so I am currently writing postcards to women in that district (who are not yet registered to vote) about the danger the GOP poses to their reproductive rights. This effort is sponsored by Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org).

Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) just dropped their campaign to flip NY-03 (George Santos' former seat), so I have grabbed some names and addresses and will also be writing postcards for that campaign as well.

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Dec 11, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Cheryl,

What you describe is exactly what I was struggling to find when I came upon Hopium Chronicles: a place to focus my energy, donations and time most effectively. The ongoing Civics lessons are a much enjoyed ongoing gift! I appreciate your sharing your contacts. It’s always helpful to me to read what’s working for others-thank you

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You are very welcome!! I'm not sure I mentioned it in a post here, but another NC specific group is the New Rural Project (www.newruralproject.org). I phonebanked and donated to the campaign for one of its co-founders, Cynthia Wallace, when she was running for the US house in my then discrict NC-09.

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Thank you, Cheryl: two more resources to add to the list I am using to refer people to. And thanks for update on NC. I'd been wondering how that was going. NC struck me in 2020 as a state with real potential if enough of us put in what we can to help them.

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It is a tough nut with all the gerrymandering, but I feel good about out fresh leadership. The GOP has just come up with truly disgusting maps for US House and for the state house. I'm hoping the Governor, Lt. Governor, and AG races get peoplefired up state-wide. After Trisha Cotham flipped the NC Legislature passed a state abortion ban that Roy Cooper couldn't veto. But if the GOP gets a trfecta next November, I think an even more restrictive ban might be attempted so we need to fire up voters.

Keep up the good work!!

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I just got out of a Hopium meeting: he and others there have strong feelings that NC could be flipped and encouraged ppl to give support. That is great to hear, NC on my short list. I admire so much folks in NC that just keep going and don't give up. Good for you.

OMG, just realized you were probably there!

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Dec 10, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Such a wonderful read Annie. I really appreciate following your thought processes as you wrote. And what a great “win” to guide your friend through. It sounds like he left excited and energized: truly hope with a plan. Clearly IMO you’ll find your own best plan.

Thankful to “ meet” people like you on Hopium!

Irene

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Dec 10, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Bless, bless, bless. Thank you so much.

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WOW! Too bad it's South Texas..The politics in your neck of the American woods seems pretty off the charts..I hope the woman in desperate need of an emergency abortion is allowed to get it in Texas..

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I just heard that a court order has put it on hold. Hope I misheard, because this is draconian (the first time I've felt called to use that word in a personal context). If true, I hope this escalates the legal examination of these laws and that ultimately results in them being declared unconstitutional. Even as I write that hope, I feel a deep despair.

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More good economic news reported in Bloomberg..when will this start showing up in Biden's polls?

US consumer sentiment rebounded sharply in early December, topping all forecasts as households dialed back their year-ahead inflation expectations by the most in 22 years.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped 8.1 points to a four-month high of 69.4, the preliminary December reading showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for the gauge to edge up to 62.

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Ken Paxton is a felonious abomination. He should have been thrown in jail for 99 years.

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I have found this site useful in dispelling the notion that Republicans are better than Democrats for the economy. I know the stock market does not reflect entire economy but this has been useful.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president

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