I think you're the one who raised my awareness of their phone banking. I've been texting for them for months, but joining three of their phone bank registrations in the coming days. PA is always Thursday at 1 p.m. PT!!! They're all important sessions, but PA is obviously a great place to be focusing some strategic energy, together, let's bring in thousands of new democratic voters in the closing weeks! Here's a link to all their sessions so you can register: https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/?q=phone%20banks&tag_ids=20038
They also have a 'Get Over Your Fear of Phonebanking with Lynne,' which is tomorrow and sounds fun! This is a great way to make a difference Team, LFG!!!
I am writing postcards for North Carolina, and it was really difficult to not go off script last night. But in seriousness, I alternate crying in hope and crying in anxiety. I know crying doesn't get us a win, but things are so emotionally taxing.
Anyway, thank you to everyone who is doing what they can for democracy. It is good to know so many good people are working together to get some of the best candidates EVER elected.
I have been writing for Postcards to Swing States for months (closing in on #2000). Because of Simon, I requested 500 for NC all the way back when they opened for orders. They are all written, stamped and waiting for their mailing date. Feeling pretty smart about that now. Thanks, Simon!
The onine USPS store was briefly sold out of postcard stamps just before the price hike in July. I thought I had enough to get me through but boy was I wrong!
I miscounted how many I needed (going to 3 offices got me mixed up). I needed two more. I just put regular stamps on those last two. Too tired to go back to the Post Office(s) to get two more. Did you get the ones you needed?
Me, too, Ellen! 700 for WI, MI, PA and NC. Just waiting to send the last batches. Try your Bulk Mail/Main Post Office for the postcard stamps. It was the only place that carried them in my area.
I would mail them now. I wrote for Michigan and Wisconsin but did not use their poor message. Both Michigan and Wisconsin have early voting. NC early voting begins October 17 per iwillvote.com. You can always add a "PS".
I would encourage everyone to watch the video on the Postcards to Swing States facebook page where they discuss the reasons for their messages and their mailing dates.
I would respectively encourage you to follow the instructions and mail on the date (or as close to the date) the organization requested you mail them. If you feel it is important to mail the postcards on another date, perhaps you can email the organization and ask them and/or express your concerns before you do anything that veers from the instructions.
What you consider a "poor" message has been rigorously tested in randomized control trials (the "gold" standard of experimental design) with people who are the target audience of the postcards. They are irregular voters and are, I suspect, very different in their voting behavior vs. YOU! (So the message that would motivate YOU is likely not effective for them or at the very least less effective).
Please watch this video about the Postcards to Swing States program. The info on why the messages are effective for the intended audience starts at ~ 19:40 mark.
Thank you, Stephanie, for writing post cards. I'm writing Vote Forward letters for NC. I'm of the belief that if you feel your emotions, but do the work anyway, you're on the right track. I've also learned that I needed to back away from some news sources because they were not good for my central nervous system.
Voting has begun in Minnesota! And this cat lady, with two daughters, was among those in line when our polling place opened. Postcards and phone calls over the weekend; then time to watch Governor Walz teach Vance a lesson in real American Civics. Let’s do this!
I’ve been sharing early voting information with my friends, family, and colleagues.
I led an inclusion contact at the beginning of our team meeting on Monday about the benefits and importance of early voting. People were excited to hear the information and shared it with their networks too.
My neighbor and I were the last 2 voters in Minnetrista, Minnesota on day 1. Husband's ballot in the mail tomorrow. Love my state and it's commitment to making voting easy for everyone. Our town clerk was surprised at how many day 1 voters there were this year. :)
Glad the town clerk was surprised by the turnout. Hope they are surprised every day until November 5th. And yes to being proud of how easy we make it to vote here in MN. Consistently some of the highest voter turnout in the country! (And running into the Governor and Scout at Minnehaha Dog Park is just an added bonus 😎)
I really like the compassionate side Kamala Harris is showing in these interviews. I think they will have more impact than talking policy at this point.
The Republican Party, which has been taken over by MAGA, is suddenly discovering that it is running reprehensible MAGA candidates that fail to appeal to voters – Mark Robinson, Kari Lake, JD Vance... And the most toxic of them all: Agent Orange.
Who woulda thunk?
Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles made an astute early call to bet on North Carolina and Arizona, precisely because of their weak flagship Republican candidates: Robinson and Lake. In other words, Simon believed this weakness gave Biden (now Harris) a golden opportunity to "Expand the Map".
In Arizona, the Hopium community has invested at least $ 360,000 in the Senate Campaign of Ruben Gallego, who will be a significant upgrade from Kyrsten Sinema. Gallego, as we all know, is running against the photogenic but utterly vile Kari Lake. Gallego is leading by high single digits.
In North Carolina, the Hopium community made early contributions of $ 480,000 to the state Democratic Party, led by its amazing Chair, Anderson Clayton. (age 26!) We’re now seeing how the poisonous Robinson, and the hard work of Clayton & Co, and of course the Harris-Walz Campaign, are threatening Republican losses up and down the ballot in the Tar Heel State.
Polls are close, but if Kamala Harris wins North Carolina’s 16 Electoral Votes, it’s very difficult to see a Trumpian path to 270. Quite the contrary: Harris will be well-poised to win the 2024 Presidential Election well outside the MoS ("Margin of Steal").
"…the story about Robinson will divert attention from the lies about Haitian immigrants eating pets, which diverted attention from Trump’s abysmal debate performance, which diverted attention from Trump’s filming a campaign ad at Arlington National Cemetery."
– Heather Cox Richardson ("Letters from an American")
THIS should be spread EVERYWHERE. Its truth. You are NOT important enough for people to notice unless you wear your MAGA crap. Wow, what a sad life - right? OMG
Wow - That's why they proudly wear their red hats, MAGA t-shirts and adore Trump. He makes them feel seen, feel heard and their racism and misogyny validated. I wish they would go back to their rat holes.
Hi Simon and Hopium Family. Nebraska Republicans with the push from both 45 and Lindsay Graham who visited there, are trying to change the electoral process in the state to a winner takes all (trying to prevent the potential for us to win NE-2). Do you have any concerns as to whether this will succeed?
It’s too late for Maine to change. They have a 90 day window for new legislation to become effective - past the date of vote certification. That’s why the last minute push.
I heard that their 90 day time to change voting rules in ME ended yesterday. So I hope Dear Ole Lindsay is unsuccessful in Nebraska. He needs to stay in his own state and mind his own business!
I'm not loving that they want to change the rules, but I am loving that this signals the GOP is in a full-scale panic. They bought into the Right Wing Propaganda Generation Machine that Trump was "strong" and "on track" to win. Now that people really are voting, they are scared little bunnies.
Wow! That line on the first day of voting! Today at The Bulwark there was something about an effort in Nebraska to end the Blue Dot. Have not seen this mentioned before, and wanted to rush over to Hopium and find out what's up with that.
It's too late for Maine to change their electoral vote. They had to do it 90 days before they certify their vote which is dec. 17, so it's too late and that's why Nebraska is trying to do it now because Maine is locked in.
Among the many important moments during the Oprah interview ( like the Ulvade mom's stark questioning of who we are and why we won't stop the gun terrorism and Kamala's expression of sympathy and concern for Amber Thurman's mom and sisters) was when Oprah asked what was (paraphrasing) behind Kamala's new strut into this position of leadership and Kamala essentially said it's due to needing to be that person who will be the leader we need.
That's kind of how I feel about what we are doing here. Just like Kamala, we are rising up to take on whatever we need to take on to save Democracy and our kids' future. Love this family! LFG!
Came home last night at 1:30am after finishing a gig and watched the Oprah event before going to sleep….. “Someone breaks into my house, they’re gettin’ shot” was the most unexpected….but HUMAN moment I have witnessed in a campaign for a long time. I actually loved it because I just think it illustrates beautifully how much we’re all sick of false choices….there’s huge consensus that you can own a firearm for self defense AND responsibly regulate them for public safety, including knowing the difference between tools of war and tools of spotting & self defense
I think it is likely that she became a gun owner because of her role a prosecutor. They get threatened all the time - even before Trump made it "popular" /s
Yeah, I didn’t think that she got one just to be normal… It came off very legit. I just enjoyed her open bracing of the fact that the choice isn’t to own a gun or not own a gun, we can protect kids from mass shootings and people can own guns for self-defense at the same time… As has been the case through most of American history prior to when the assault weapons ban expired under George W. Bush… It literally took about four years for the gun manufacturers to scale production of assault weapons, and then we’ve seen a constant uptick of mass shootings ever since
Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller looks at betting markets and draws his trends and predictions from them. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”
As we say here in Baghdad By the Sea -- Ojala que si. -- God wills it.
Like Miller, I track the bookies. As of today, the Real Clear RCP Average is Harris .52.3 vs Trump 46.3.
My experience with bookies, however is the smartest money comes in when the horses are at the post, just before the starting gun, the gamblers' money comes in, changing the odds.
None of the pollsters or gamblers, including Miller, have a handle on registrations, especially in the swing states. According to Pew Research Center, many of the more prominent polling organizations that use probability sampling have shifted from conducting polls primarily by telephone to using online methods, or some combination of online, mail and telephone. The result is that polling methodologies are far more diverse now than in the past. But after a cursory search, I can't tell which if any, have factored the effect of new registrations.
I've asked several commenters to cross examine pollsters on this issue, but so far....crickets. I assume that the trend favors Harris/Walz. In Baghdad By the Sea, I know that the trend does because voter registration is a public matter and on request the numbers are provided. In data, the DNC uses a system called VAT, which can provide a list of new registered voters.
The Voter Analysis Tool (VAT) is an online resource that offers data re changes in voter registration, moves and more, offers email delivery of lists to volunteers, has colorful graphic voter registration and VBM progress charts, and generates slate cards for texting or emailing.
The theory behind FT 6 is to contact some of the 60% of unregistered voters have never been asked to register. To win in 2024, FT 6 has reached out to millions of unregistered likely Democrats using a one-of-a-kind database and every outreach method possible (email, text, postcard, phone, targeted ad, and in-person too), in key swing states and districts where new Democrats will make the most impact. According to FT 6 analysis, 3 million new Democrats in swing states can ensure the election. So far, more than 12 million texts have been sent.
Several other organizations are doing the same, using different databases.
I also think that other issues are not included in the data. E.G. in 2020 Trump supporters included many groups that are flipping. IMHO there is no way to quantify that effect. Most of them have flipped because of the democracy/Jan 6 issue, or because they thing Trump has degenerated and is unfit to be president. I have read many of the polling questionnaires. Virtually none address Jan 6.
The most successful prognosticator has been Allen Lichtman, who picks Harris.
We have to "pour it on." Still time to expand our base.
Well, one of the poll aggregators most certainly is: Nate Silver. Moreover, Silver is an advisor who is employed by Polymarets, a prediction market company in which Alt-Reich billionaire Peter Thiel has a major investment.
I wouldn’t put it past Silver to have placed a major undisclosed bet on this election, and to be manipulating his predictions and his newsletter Silver Bulletin to skew things in the interest of such a bet.
Thank you, @Daniel Solomon for holding up the Field Team 6 method. See Thursday's newsletter for our July data breakthrough that has helped us curate 16.8 million MORE names of unregistered likely Democrats! If we can sustain our one-out-of-three registration rate, that puts MILLIONS of new voters onto the voting rolls! https://www.fieldteam6.org/newsletter
This is one of the first Substack newsletters I subscribed to when I realized how negative the corporate owned media reporting was affecting my outlook on life. And this has been such a life saver of positivity and daily support and courage. I'm happy to be donating, writing postcards, feeling energized and not apathetic about the future! Thank you!!
Totally agree with your assessment of major media. They want to get us to engage by creating a constant stream of threats, outrage and panic. Watching Oprah conduct a 90 minute presentation that was compassionate, substantive and calm really shows the corporate media machine is unhealthy.
Brian Hansbury posted a terrific piece on the Media and Democracy Project Blog substack today (link below). He reports on the movement forming that is rejecting low-quality mainstream political coverage, providing a compilation of journalism/journalists who are calling out the failures of major media reporting over the last couple weeks. From Dan Froomkin (Press Watch): “It’s particularly damning that poor journalism has allowed so many people to believe Trump’s lies.... It's our obligation to set the record straight.” Support the journalists you see doing pro-democracy work!!
From here in the Richmond area of Virginia; getting ready to march off to the polls to cast my vote for Harris/Walz, Senator Tim Kaine and congressional candidate for VA-01, Leslie Mehta!!!! Early voting starts today.
So sad my Mom passed away a few weeks ago because she wanted to hang in there long enough to vote early for this ticket. She was so excited about Harris/Walz. She lived in Henrico County. I am also doing this for my Mom, aside from doing this for our country.
Hello! You/they can go to https://www.mobilize.us/ and filter by "canvass" and "Nevada."
Voting has started in Pennsylvania!
https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/voter-support/mail-in-and-absentee-ballot.html
FT 6 still registering Pa Democrats.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
I think you're the one who raised my awareness of their phone banking. I've been texting for them for months, but joining three of their phone bank registrations in the coming days. PA is always Thursday at 1 p.m. PT!!! They're all important sessions, but PA is obviously a great place to be focusing some strategic energy, together, let's bring in thousands of new democratic voters in the closing weeks! Here's a link to all their sessions so you can register: https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/?q=phone%20banks&tag_ids=20038
They also have a 'Get Over Your Fear of Phonebanking with Lynne,' which is tomorrow and sounds fun! This is a great way to make a difference Team, LFG!!!
https://www.mobilize.us/2024pavictory/event/622903/
I have voted!! So happy to do so. Lots of overseas voters have received their ballots already
YAY! Thank you! Please make sure all your friends, family, neighbors, and other networks do the same!!!!
I am writing postcards for North Carolina, and it was really difficult to not go off script last night. But in seriousness, I alternate crying in hope and crying in anxiety. I know crying doesn't get us a win, but things are so emotionally taxing.
Anyway, thank you to everyone who is doing what they can for democracy. It is good to know so many good people are working together to get some of the best candidates EVER elected.
I have been writing for Postcards to Swing States for months (closing in on #2000). Because of Simon, I requested 500 for NC all the way back when they opened for orders. They are all written, stamped and waiting for their mailing date. Feeling pretty smart about that now. Thanks, Simon!
I'm buying my stamps today.
our local post office is sold out of post card stamps!!!
I hope that reflects high demand! I order from USPS online. They come pretty fast.
Wow!!!
The onine USPS store was briefly sold out of postcard stamps just before the price hike in July. I thought I had enough to get me through but boy was I wrong!
I miscounted how many I needed (going to 3 offices got me mixed up). I needed two more. I just put regular stamps on those last two. Too tired to go back to the Post Office(s) to get two more. Did you get the ones you needed?
I had to go to three Post Offices to get postcard stamps I needed. If I had to do it again, I would just order online.
Same here in Michigan!
Me, too, Ellen! 700 for WI, MI, PA and NC. Just waiting to send the last batches. Try your Bulk Mail/Main Post Office for the postcard stamps. It was the only place that carried them in my area.
Order them online @usps.gov in rolls of 100
I would mail them now. I wrote for Michigan and Wisconsin but did not use their poor message. Both Michigan and Wisconsin have early voting. NC early voting begins October 17 per iwillvote.com. You can always add a "PS".
I would encourage everyone to watch the video on the Postcards to Swing States facebook page where they discuss the reasons for their messages and their mailing dates.
Hi Ellen, I didn't see your post before I made my post.
I would respectively encourage you to follow the instructions and mail on the date (or as close to the date) the organization requested you mail them. If you feel it is important to mail the postcards on another date, perhaps you can email the organization and ask them and/or express your concerns before you do anything that veers from the instructions.
Linda,
What you consider a "poor" message has been rigorously tested in randomized control trials (the "gold" standard of experimental design) with people who are the target audience of the postcards. They are irregular voters and are, I suspect, very different in their voting behavior vs. YOU! (So the message that would motivate YOU is likely not effective for them or at the very least less effective).
Please watch this video about the Postcards to Swing States program. The info on why the messages are effective for the intended audience starts at ~ 19:40 mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9YZuETZ3l4&t=1168s
And before you decide to go rogue on the mailing dates as well, please watch this recent video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-40ycCDOEo
Whoa! That is sme serious postcarding!
Thank you for incuding North Carolina :-)
Thank you!
Wow, you absolutely ROCK!! I only felt capable of doing 300 postcards.
Thank you! NC needs your love!
Hi Stephanie, I empathise completely. Let's hope for tears of joy on 5 November. Very best wishes.
Thank you, Stephanie, for writing post cards. I'm writing Vote Forward letters for NC. I'm of the belief that if you feel your emotions, but do the work anyway, you're on the right track. I've also learned that I needed to back away from some news sources because they were not good for my central nervous system.
Voting has begun in Minnesota! And this cat lady, with two daughters, was among those in line when our polling place opened. Postcards and phone calls over the weekend; then time to watch Governor Walz teach Vance a lesson in real American Civics. Let’s do this!
Heading out soon to vote over the lunch hour here in Mpls!
Yes!
You ROCK, please get all your networks to do the same, let's win this thing in October!
I’ve been sharing early voting information with my friends, family, and colleagues.
I led an inclusion contact at the beginning of our team meeting on Monday about the benefits and importance of early voting. People were excited to hear the information and shared it with their networks too.
You are amazing, thank you for all you're doing!!!
Love it, thank you Sheila. Please spread the word of Hopium far and wide with your fellow Minnesotans -- Vote on Day One, LFG!!!!
My neighbor and I were the last 2 voters in Minnetrista, Minnesota on day 1. Husband's ballot in the mail tomorrow. Love my state and it's commitment to making voting easy for everyone. Our town clerk was surprised at how many day 1 voters there were this year. :)
Glad the town clerk was surprised by the turnout. Hope they are surprised every day until November 5th. And yes to being proud of how easy we make it to vote here in MN. Consistently some of the highest voter turnout in the country! (And running into the Governor and Scout at Minnehaha Dog Park is just an added bonus 😎)
I really like the compassionate side Kamala Harris is showing in these interviews. I think they will have more impact than talking policy at this point.
Especially when combined with her fierceness about protecting women from the dangerous MAGA abortion laws that are needlessy killing women.
(Posted on The-Downballot.com)
The Republican Party, which has been taken over by MAGA, is suddenly discovering that it is running reprehensible MAGA candidates that fail to appeal to voters – Mark Robinson, Kari Lake, JD Vance... And the most toxic of them all: Agent Orange.
Who woulda thunk?
Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles made an astute early call to bet on North Carolina and Arizona, precisely because of their weak flagship Republican candidates: Robinson and Lake. In other words, Simon believed this weakness gave Biden (now Harris) a golden opportunity to "Expand the Map".
In Arizona, the Hopium community has invested at least $ 360,000 in the Senate Campaign of Ruben Gallego, who will be a significant upgrade from Kyrsten Sinema. Gallego, as we all know, is running against the photogenic but utterly vile Kari Lake. Gallego is leading by high single digits.
In North Carolina, the Hopium community made early contributions of $ 480,000 to the state Democratic Party, led by its amazing Chair, Anderson Clayton. (age 26!) We’re now seeing how the poisonous Robinson, and the hard work of Clayton & Co, and of course the Harris-Walz Campaign, are threatening Republican losses up and down the ballot in the Tar Heel State.
Polls are close, but if Kamala Harris wins North Carolina’s 16 Electoral Votes, it’s very difficult to see a Trumpian path to 270. Quite the contrary: Harris will be well-poised to win the 2024 Presidential Election well outside the MoS ("Margin of Steal").
💙 the Oprah/Harris virtual event was really good. I hope more people watch it.
loved it hope they do a replay
Here's the link: https://www.youtube.com/live/bZasBoVhuUA?si=fPWQZyrXOQbcDFND
I watched it this morning. It was fantastic and the abortion segment made me tear up.
Devastating - had me in tears.
Same.
"…the story about Robinson will divert attention from the lies about Haitian immigrants eating pets, which diverted attention from Trump’s abysmal debate performance, which diverted attention from Trump’s filming a campaign ad at Arlington National Cemetery."
– Heather Cox Richardson ("Letters from an American")
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/september-19-2024
(HCR’s entire letter is well worth reading, as always.)
amen
Devastating video explaining why MAGA voters can’t let go of Trump:
https://nitter.poast.org/Trump_Detester/status/1836749570191011995#m
THIS should be spread EVERYWHERE. Its truth. You are NOT important enough for people to notice unless you wear your MAGA crap. Wow, what a sad life - right? OMG
Wow - That's why they proudly wear their red hats, MAGA t-shirts and adore Trump. He makes them feel seen, feel heard and their racism and misogyny validated. I wish they would go back to their rat holes.
Hi Simon and Hopium Family. Nebraska Republicans with the push from both 45 and Lindsay Graham who visited there, are trying to change the electoral process in the state to a winner takes all (trying to prevent the potential for us to win NE-2). Do you have any concerns as to whether this will succeed?
I am remaining cautiously optimistic. I do not believe they will succeed in changing the rules this close to an election.
(Replied to same question by Olandra)
If Nebraska ends their Blue Dot, Maine plans to end their practice of awarding a separate Electoral Vote for ME-02. Meaning it will be a wash.
It’s too late for Maine to change. They have a 90 day window for new legislation to become effective - past the date of vote certification. That’s why the last minute push.
Thanks for clarifying! I was not aware of that.
I heard that their 90 day time to change voting rules in ME ended yesterday. So I hope Dear Ole Lindsay is unsuccessful in Nebraska. He needs to stay in his own state and mind his own business!
I'm not loving that they want to change the rules, but I am loving that this signals the GOP is in a full-scale panic. They bought into the Right Wing Propaganda Generation Machine that Trump was "strong" and "on track" to win. Now that people really are voting, they are scared little bunnies.
Karen, you are defaming cute little bunnies
😂
Wow! That line on the first day of voting! Today at The Bulwark there was something about an effort in Nebraska to end the Blue Dot. Have not seen this mentioned before, and wanted to rush over to Hopium and find out what's up with that.
If Nebraska ends their Blue Dot, Maine plans to end their practice of awarding a separate Electoral Vote for ME-02. Meaning it will be a wash.
It's too late for Maine to change their electoral vote. They had to do it 90 days before they certify their vote which is dec. 17, so it's too late and that's why Nebraska is trying to do it now because Maine is locked in.
Yes, someone on the Hopium forum just made me aware of that. My bad!
I voted in Loudoun County, VA today! The line was pretty long and lots of energy there. It feels good.
Also the vast majority of folks in line were holding Dem sample ballots.
Cool! Thanks for letting us know. I voted early today too, in Virginia (Hanover Co.)
Thank you!!!!! Please flood your networks with this message -- we want to win in October!!! It's on.
Among the many important moments during the Oprah interview ( like the Ulvade mom's stark questioning of who we are and why we won't stop the gun terrorism and Kamala's expression of sympathy and concern for Amber Thurman's mom and sisters) was when Oprah asked what was (paraphrasing) behind Kamala's new strut into this position of leadership and Kamala essentially said it's due to needing to be that person who will be the leader we need.
That's kind of how I feel about what we are doing here. Just like Kamala, we are rising up to take on whatever we need to take on to save Democracy and our kids' future. Love this family! LFG!
Came home last night at 1:30am after finishing a gig and watched the Oprah event before going to sleep….. “Someone breaks into my house, they’re gettin’ shot” was the most unexpected….but HUMAN moment I have witnessed in a campaign for a long time. I actually loved it because I just think it illustrates beautifully how much we’re all sick of false choices….there’s huge consensus that you can own a firearm for self defense AND responsibly regulate them for public safety, including knowing the difference between tools of war and tools of spotting & self defense
I think it is likely that she became a gun owner because of her role a prosecutor. They get threatened all the time - even before Trump made it "popular" /s
Yeah, I didn’t think that she got one just to be normal… It came off very legit. I just enjoyed her open bracing of the fact that the choice isn’t to own a gun or not own a gun, we can protect kids from mass shootings and people can own guns for self-defense at the same time… As has been the case through most of American history prior to when the assault weapons ban expired under George W. Bush… It literally took about four years for the gun manufacturers to scale production of assault weapons, and then we’ve seen a constant uptick of mass shootings ever since
Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller looks at betting markets and draws his trends and predictions from them. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”
As we say here in Baghdad By the Sea -- Ojala que si. -- God wills it.
Like Miller, I track the bookies. As of today, the Real Clear RCP Average is Harris .52.3 vs Trump 46.3.
My experience with bookies, however is the smartest money comes in when the horses are at the post, just before the starting gun, the gamblers' money comes in, changing the odds.
None of the pollsters or gamblers, including Miller, have a handle on registrations, especially in the swing states. According to Pew Research Center, many of the more prominent polling organizations that use probability sampling have shifted from conducting polls primarily by telephone to using online methods, or some combination of online, mail and telephone. The result is that polling methodologies are far more diverse now than in the past. But after a cursory search, I can't tell which if any, have factored the effect of new registrations.
I've asked several commenters to cross examine pollsters on this issue, but so far....crickets. I assume that the trend favors Harris/Walz. In Baghdad By the Sea, I know that the trend does because voter registration is a public matter and on request the numbers are provided. In data, the DNC uses a system called VAT, which can provide a list of new registered voters.
The Voter Analysis Tool (VAT) is an online resource that offers data re changes in voter registration, moves and more, offers email delivery of lists to volunteers, has colorful graphic voter registration and VBM progress charts, and generates slate cards for texting or emailing.
The theory behind FT 6 is to contact some of the 60% of unregistered voters have never been asked to register. To win in 2024, FT 6 has reached out to millions of unregistered likely Democrats using a one-of-a-kind database and every outreach method possible (email, text, postcard, phone, targeted ad, and in-person too), in key swing states and districts where new Democrats will make the most impact. According to FT 6 analysis, 3 million new Democrats in swing states can ensure the election. So far, more than 12 million texts have been sent.
Several other organizations are doing the same, using different databases.
I also think that other issues are not included in the data. E.G. in 2020 Trump supporters included many groups that are flipping. IMHO there is no way to quantify that effect. Most of them have flipped because of the democracy/Jan 6 issue, or because they thing Trump has degenerated and is unfit to be president. I have read many of the polling questionnaires. Virtually none address Jan 6.
The most successful prognosticator has been Allen Lichtman, who picks Harris.
We have to "pour it on." Still time to expand our base.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
"None of the pollsters or gamblers…"
Well, one of the poll aggregators most certainly is: Nate Silver. Moreover, Silver is an advisor who is employed by Polymarets, a prediction market company in which Alt-Reich billionaire Peter Thiel has a major investment.
I wouldn’t put it past Silver to have placed a major undisclosed bet on this election, and to be manipulating his predictions and his newsletter Silver Bulletin to skew things in the interest of such a bet.
Thank you, @Daniel Solomon for holding up the Field Team 6 method. See Thursday's newsletter for our July data breakthrough that has helped us curate 16.8 million MORE names of unregistered likely Democrats! If we can sustain our one-out-of-three registration rate, that puts MILLIONS of new voters onto the voting rolls! https://www.fieldteam6.org/newsletter
This is one of the first Substack newsletters I subscribed to when I realized how negative the corporate owned media reporting was affecting my outlook on life. And this has been such a life saver of positivity and daily support and courage. I'm happy to be donating, writing postcards, feeling energized and not apathetic about the future! Thank you!!
Totally agree with your assessment of major media. They want to get us to engage by creating a constant stream of threats, outrage and panic. Watching Oprah conduct a 90 minute presentation that was compassionate, substantive and calm really shows the corporate media machine is unhealthy.
Brian Hansbury posted a terrific piece on the Media and Democracy Project Blog substack today (link below). He reports on the movement forming that is rejecting low-quality mainstream political coverage, providing a compilation of journalism/journalists who are calling out the failures of major media reporting over the last couple weeks. From Dan Froomkin (Press Watch): “It’s particularly damning that poor journalism has allowed so many people to believe Trump’s lies.... It's our obligation to set the record straight.” Support the journalists you see doing pro-democracy work!!
https://open.substack.com/pub/mediaanddemocracyproject/p/a-threat-to-democracy-criticism-explodes?r=kj8xh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I second that, Julia. Thank you so much, Simon!!
From here in the Richmond area of Virginia; getting ready to march off to the polls to cast my vote for Harris/Walz, Senator Tim Kaine and congressional candidate for VA-01, Leslie Mehta!!!! Early voting starts today.
So sad my Mom passed away a few weeks ago because she wanted to hang in there long enough to vote early for this ticket. She was so excited about Harris/Walz. She lived in Henrico County. I am also doing this for my Mom, aside from doing this for our country.
Thank you for voting early and so very sorry about the loss of your mom.
Thank you.
My commiserations and thank you for what you're doing for democracy.
Thank you so much. I am more determined than ever.
Sorry about your mom. I'm sure she was with you in spirit when you cast your vote today. 💙
Thanks for voting early. So sorry about your mom. :(
Thank you!
My deepest condolences to you, Blue...you shared this momentous time in our history with your mom, and now carry the torch for both of you. 💙🌈💙
Sorry for your loss.
right on it is such a freak show with the ones mentioned let alone JD....