Happy Friday all. We are in the midst of a very strong stretch for the Harris-Walz campaign. The debate clearly did what the campaign wanted, establishing this basic contrast between her strong and inspiring leadership and his ugliness and extremism, and it changed the election. As I reviewed yesterday we’ve gained ground nationally and in the states, and are now, clearly, in a much stronger position than the other guys. Due to our progress on inflation the Fed cut interest rates this week and the stock market soared. The VP had a wildly successful event last night with Oprah and many others, pioneering an important new and powerful form of political communications. We even got the highly influential commentator Joe Rogan, typically not a friend of Democrats, praising the VP and her campaign in recent days. As Joe Biden would say, “possibilities!”
And they, them, they continue to have bad days. Rather than talking about what matters to voters they talk of sharks and batteries, dogs and cats, imaginary cheering crowds. We learned this week that two women in Georgia have died due to Trump abortion bans. In recent days the Trump campaign has been telling reporters that their path to 270 is winning GA, NC and PA, and what is bad news for them every independent public poll taken in NC and PA over the last few weeks has Harris tied or ahead. Most of these polls have her ahead. Yesterday Mark Robinson, the Lt. Gov of NC and the GOP gubernatorial candidate, a close political and ideological ally of Trump, completely melted down, putting NC and their path to 270 in even greater jeopardy. We also learned that Robert Kennedy has once again betrayed the women he is married too, creating yet another sex scandal for the party of the rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon.
Outraged about Mark Robinson? Want to help North Carolina Democrats? Donate to the North Carolina Democratic Party today. We are close to hitting $500,000 raised for our friend Anderson Clayton and the NC Dems - help put us over the top today!
This good for us and really bad for them dynamic comes at a very good time for us - voting season is upon us and people are going to start really paying attention now. Folks have started voting in MN, SD and VA. Here is a video of the line to vote in Arlington, Virginia this morning. People are Voting on Day 1 everyone!
At noon today I will be joining our friends at Network NOVA for a live discussion of the importance of Voting on Day 1 and winning the early vote. The team at Network NOVA will be sharing what they are doing to drive the early vote that begins today in Virginia. For those who want ideas on how to create more intensity around early voting in your communities this event will be worth watching and our segment will be shared here in the coming days for those who cannot make it live. Here is a link to register.
Here are a few more ways to dive into what has been a very encouraging stretch for us:
Watch my discussion with MSNBC’s Alex Wagner, above. It was a smart look at recent polling and this very good stretch for us.
My new video presentation on the 2024 election, “Leading In The Polls, Beating Inflation, An Inspiring Ticket - The Democratic Party Enters The Home Stretch Strong, Confident, Ready To Win.” You will also find some fresh written analysis here too.
In the last few days I joined Jen Rubin of the Washington Post to talk about all this encouraging news, and yesterday Tom Bonier and I did a fresh sit down with Ben Meiselas on the mighty MeidasTouch Network to talk polls and so much more. Enjoy my friends - both are great conversations.
Our new Closing Strong episode with Rep. Maxwell Frost and others comes out this afternoon. I will share a link in the next Hopium post. In the meantime check out a clip where Tara and I discuss Joe Rogan’s unexpected, effusive praise of the Vice President:
Our Next Winning The House Thursday Is for Rudy Salas, CA-22 - This Thursday we will be making calls and postcarding for Rudy Salas. We begin at 730pm and end at 9pm. You can register here for our event, and learn more about our Winning The House series, including how to postcard and call even if you can’t join us on Thursday nights, here.
We had a great turnout for Laura Gillen last night. Thank you all!
Doing More, Worrying Less/New Senate and House Endorsements - Our community has already done so much. In 2023 we helped win elections in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. We kept working hard in 2024, helping win another election in Florida and NY-3, the Suozzi special election. This year we’ve focused our energy on three big projects:
Electing Harris-Walz by supporting the ticket and working to win our “checkmate” states of Arizona, Nebraska (NE-2, the blue dot) and North Carolina
Flipping the House by working to elect Democrats in the 11 mostly likely Republican held seats to flip. We’ve both been raising money for these critical races and launched a weekly Thursday night program to postcard and call into the districts.
Keep the Senate by getting in early and supporting Ruben Gallego, an open seat candidate in a critical battleground state who started late (due to Sinema staying in longer than expected) and needed a boost.
Together we have now raised over $1m each for Harris-Walz, AZ/NE-2/NC and our Winning The House 11. Thank you all. Every time the Hopium community has been called you have answered.
With new our new ticket and our new electoral landscape, after consulting with folks here in DC, and listening to the recommendations of the Hopium community, today I am updating our 2024 targets by adding four more open seat and challenger races to our Winning The House list and the Tester and Sherrod Brown Senate races. I have also set new, ambitious goals for our existing candidates and states.
In the House we are adding the following candidates to our core 11:
Amish Shah (AZ-01) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Derek Tran (CA-45) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Christina Bohannan (IA-01) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Janelle Stelson (PA-10) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
There are now three ways to support our 4 new candidates. Our one click donation now spreads your donation to all 15 of our House candidates. I’ve established a new link to give just to these four. And of course you can go to our Winning The House page and give directly to any one of our candidates.
All of our House candidates with the exception of Bohannan and Stelson are the 13 races rated most likely to flip red to blue in the Cook Report. We’ve added Bohannan and Stelson due to my discussions with folks here in DC, and their optimism about what we are seeing emerge in the new post-Kamala landscape for the House. They are stretch but doable races. I know some of you are advocating for other candidates and I will take one more look at everything in early October and make adjustments if warranted.
So here is our new, updated Hopium doing more and worrying less list, with a new fundraising goal date of November 1. And friends, thank you. These last two days have been two of the biggest fundraising days in the history of this plucky project. The Hopium community is clearly fired up and ready to go!
Harris-Walz For President - $1,056,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel. Hard work is good work!
Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two frontline state parties:
North Carolina - $487,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $363,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $172,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
Winning The House - There are three ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:
Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,110,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates
Support The New 4 - $27,245 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. This is amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!
Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:
Montana/Jon Tester - $24,036 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $15,450 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $363,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
I view the Tester race as a toss up and Sherrod Brown maintains a small lead. I know there is chatter out there that Tester trails. I don’t believe we have enough data to say that. The last two polls in the state were conducted by the Republican Party and Trump’s pollster. The one before that had Tester ahead. The Senate folks here in DC view this race as a toss up as will Hopium until there is data clearly showing something else, either way.
My general take on the Senate right now is that we are favored in every race except Montana (an amazing achievement), and Montana is likely to stay close and be decided on Election Day. I am keeping an eye on the other possible Senate stretch races but for now I think adding Tester and Brown is an important additional step for our community, and one many of you have been advocating for over the last few months.
Ways you can do even more -
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in MN, SD, VA today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!
Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.
Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 113,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you! - Simon
Democrats Are A Party of Kamala, Joy, Optimism and Getting Ahead, Republicans A Freak Show Of Trump, Mark Robinson, Kari Lake, Matt Gaetz And Robert Kennedy