Happy Saturday all. Got a few things for you today:
Harris Leads in AZ and NC in New NYT Polling - Last week the NYT gave us polling showing Vice President Harris leading 50-46 in MI, PA, and WI. This morning we got more encouraging data:
In this new post and video I go into depth about where we are as we head into our Convention - we are leading nationally and in the battleground states; a ticket that is electric, joyful and filling arenas; Harris’s early themes - freedom, opportunity, forward/backward - are powerful, compelling, inspiring: we have a new and compelling generation of leaders ready to take the baton and ably lead us into the future; we have more money and will have a far stronger early vote/GOTV operation; we are far more competitive - perhaps superior - on social media now; our Senate polling is encouraging and we are now in a stronger position in House races across the country; and they are an historically ugly mess, with a candidate unfit, unwell and far too extreme; an odious and unpopular leader of the Handmaid’s Tale wing of the GOP as their VP; dozens of party leaders in the battlegrounds under indictment; potentially fatal levels of opposition to their ticket inside their own party; and an agenda that is far from the day to day concerns of the America people.
This new NYT polling is important for the Hopium community. For what has guided our investing at the Presidential level is a belief we would win the three industrial states - MI, PA, WI - getting us to 269 Electoral College votes or what I’ve been calling “check” as in chess. Our focus has been on getting to 270 or “checkmate,” which is why we’ve put almost $1m and lots of volunteer time into AZ, NC and NE-2. Winning any of these would get us to 270. We’ve learned in hard to AZ and NC for it’s been my view that the extremists at the top of the ticket in each, Kari Lake and Mark Robinson, meant more was possible for us in these states this year, something we are now seeing in this NYT polling and other polling these past few weeks. We went into the blue dot, NE-2, because I trust their very capable chair, Jane Kleeb, and knowing that if we spent heavily there it was likely to go our way, as it did in 2020. For all the doubts about North Carolina we’ve seen five polls there this week - 2 have Harris-Trump tied, 3 show us ahead. It’s clear now that we have the opportunity to turn the Tar Heel State blue and have it be how we checkmate MAGA this year.
My friends we can win this election if we put our heads down and work harder in these next few weeks than anything we’ve ever worked on. There are 33 days until the first day of early, in-person voting. We should shoot to win this thing not in November but in October by Voting on Day 1 and blowing out the early vote across the US. We made the right calls here at Hopium by focusing on AZ, NC, NE-2 and Harris-Biden-Walz and cannot let up. We are pouring enormous amounts of money and volunteer time into the 11 House races most likely to flip. I am proud of the impact this community has had. We are making a huge difference in this election, and have to just keep working it peeps. We can have the election we all want to have if we keep outworking the other side, and leave it all on the playing field together in these closing weeks.
With Democrats, Things Get Better - Vice President Harris offered some early pieces of her economic agenda at an event in Raleigh, North Carolina yesterday. There was a lot in this speech, and we will be spending time with her proposals and arguments in the coming weeks. I strongly recommend watching the whole thing for the language and agenda she outlined are now a very important part of what we will be taking to voters in the days ahead:
One of the reasons I remain optimistic about winning the coming debate with Trump on the economy is that voters in the battleground states know things are better where they live, and we should be able to make the connection between that sense of progress and the economic policies of the Biden-Harris Administration and Democrats more broadly:
The video at the top of this post is the latest edition of my “With Democrats, Things Get Better” presentation which I recorded yesterday. It is the first time I’ve presented it since the Vice President became our candidate, and it has lots of new data and insights. I released it this weekend for it is at its core a celebration of the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party, and a terrific way to kick off our Convention week!
The presentation runs about 30 minutes and there is another 25 minutes of discussion. I hope you will take the time to watch it in the coming days, share it with others and let me know what you think. As I argue in the presentation we are all part of one of the most consequential forces for good in human history - the Democratic Party of the United States of America - something we all need to draw inspiration and energy from as we close strong in the weeks ahead. Enjoy everyone.
Working From Joy, Supporting Our Hopium-backed Candidates and State Parties, Voting On Day 1 - Last Saturday I offered an in-depth post on the strategy behind our candidate and state party endorsements, including our Presidential battleground “check” and “checkmate” strategy. 33 days to go before early voting starts and we just need to leave it all out there on the playing field, together:
Harris-Walz!!!!!! - $855,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel - Let’s keep working it people!
Winning The House - $840,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. Watch our recent discussion with Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Come to our next Hopium Winning The House Thursday for Will Rollins (CA-41) - register here. Watch our interviews of Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) Will Rollins (CA-41), Laura Gillen (NY-04), Rudy Salas (CA-22), Josh Riley (NY-19) and Tony Vargas (NE-02) - great candidates all!
North Carolina - $391,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $327,000 raised, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $144,000 raised, $150,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
Here’s North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton thanking the Hopium community for all that we’ve done for the state party, Josh Stein and Democrats up and down the ballot in NC this year:
Here are ways you can do even more:
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in three states on September 20th - just 33 days away!
Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up to be a Hopium subscriber during our Democratic Convention subscriptions sale (10% off through August 22nd!). You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can you update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing the Hopium flowing!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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