Why I Am Optimistic We Will Win (Video), Voting on Day 1, Come Call Or Postcard Tonight!

Our next Hopium Winning The House Thursday Is Tonight At 730pm ET!

Happy Thursday all. And yes, it is another good Thursday. Got a few things for you today:

Why I Am Optimistic We Will Win - Last night I spoke to Hopium paid subscribers about this remarkable moment we are in. I kicked it off with a 20 minute overview of our new, bluer election and then took questions for another 40 minutes or so. We had a great crowd last night and the video is above. Watch, listen, share with other and get ready to work as hard as you can to win this thing, together.

For more on the extraordinary promise of this moment see these recent Hopium posts:

You can catch the magical Harris-Walz rallies live or watch recordings (well worth your time) on the campaign’s YouTube channel. You can also donate here to Harris-Walz, volunteer or buy fun new merch. Here’s a scene from their Michigan rally yesterday. The crowds continue to raucous and enormous. It’s just so remarkable to see.

We Now Have 4 Events On The Books

  • Tonight, 730pm ET - Hopium Winning The House Thursday For Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) - Register here, learn more below

  • Fri, 1pm ET - Monthly Hopium Founding Member Get Together (invite sent via email)

  • Wed, Aug 14th, 7pm ET - Monthly Live Gathering Of The Entire Hopium Community - Registration link will be available soon

  • Thur, Aug 15th, 730pm ET - Hopium Winning The House Thursday for Will Rollins (CA-41) - Registration link will be available soon

Voting on Day 1 and Our Winning The House Thursdays - As early voting begins in some states in just 42 days it’s time to start really focusing on GOTV and the early vote. One thing I’ve asked from all of you is to plan to Vote on Day 1 and encourage others to join you. I’ve written about the importance of Voting on Day 1 in this post, but here’s the bottom line - when you vote early, on Day 1, you come off the GOTV rolls of our campaigns allowing them to move on and target lower propensity voters. The earlier you vote the quicker the campaign can move on to turning out these lower propensity Dems which will increase our turnout and make it more likely we win. Again Voting on Day 1, voting early, increases our turnout and makes it more likely we win.

How does this work? Each night campaigns get the list of people who have voted that day from their local registrars. This list merely tells a campaign that you have voted not how you voted. Those names are then fed into the campaign’s database and are taken off the GOTV target list. Those households will no longer get called, doorknocked, mailed etc as the campaign moves on and targets the next most likely group to vote. With long early vote windows we have more time than ever before to reach lower propensity voters, and more money and more volunteers to do so.

Some might say, “wow, this is kinda cool. Why didn’t I know that Voting on Day 1 helps us win?” Because these long early voting windows are a relatively new thing, and our party is in the process of transitioning from an Election Day party to an early vote/vote on Day 1 party. Election Day is now the last day of voting, not the Day itself, and we could easily see 40-50% of all voters vote before Election Day this November. So however you vote - in person, via mail or dropbox - plan on voting on Day 1, or as early as you can. It’s another way you can help us win.

It’s my view with this new electoral system we will need to start thinking about winning our elections not on Election Day but in the early vote. In 2022 across the battleground states we ran up the score in the early vote against Republican and they were never able to catch up. We should shoot to do the same this November across the country.

A strong early vote does something else - it creates a permission structure for others to vote early, and social pressure that encourages people to vote. It will be another joyful moment in this joyful campaign. Lower propensity voters may end up voting early on their own because they see others doing it. So a strong celebratory early vote kicks in that thing I talk about all the time - the virtuous cycle of participation. When one takes an action for our democracy it encourages others to do so creating a virtuous cycle. People seeing others voting early encourages others to join them. Perhaps this year of Harris-Walz we should be calling it a virtuous cycle of joyful participation.

And voting early, on Day 1, does one more thing - it sends a clear message for weeks on end that our democracy is working as intended, and that it makes it far harder for Republicans to cheat.

So what we are doing in our Winning The House Thursday postcarding and phonebanking is encouraging what we call “Prime Dems” or “Super Dems” not just to vote for Harris-Walz and other Dems but to vote on Day 1 and to vote early. Together we will be spreading the understanding of the importance of voting early to voters in these key districts where Dem turnout really matters.

So I hope you will join us tonight and every Thursday night until the election to help us drive the early vote, increase our turnout and help us win the House. Tonight we will be calling and postcarding for Kirstin Engel in AZ-06 from 730pm to 9pm ET. You can join us by registering here. During the Zoom you will meet the candidate and have your choice of breakout rooms - phonebank to friendly Dems or write them up to 10 postcards. When you register note that you can choose your breakout room, which includes live training for either activity. Folks choosing the postcarding breakout rooms will receive ten addresses in advance so you can get right to work after I welcome everyone and we hear from Kirstin.

We had almost 300 people join us last week for Janelle Bynum - can we hit 400 tonight for Kirstin Engel in all important Arizona? I sure hope so. Please sign up and I look forward to seeing folks tonight!

Postcard Writers - You can use any colorful, upbeat postcard you want. If you would like to purchase postcards, we have special VOTE DAY 1 cards available through the Markers for Democracy Postcard ProShop, click here. You will need to set up an account in order to use this store. Please note that it could take a week for your order to arrive.

Working From Joy For Our Hopium-Backed Candidates and State Parties - If you are looking for other ways to help us win this November, please consider supporting one of our Hopium backed candidates or state parties. Our ambitious fundraising goals are now for the first day of early voting, September 20th. It’s show time people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Harris-Walz!!!!!! - $825,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Learn More. Let’s keep working it people!

  • Winning The House - $785,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve also raised more then $62,000 into the individual House campaigns (you can either give to all 11 or each one individually). Be sure to watch my recent interview with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries who came by to thank the Hopium community and give us an update on our efforts to flip the House this November

  • North Carolina - $358,000 raised today, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

  • Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $312,000 raised today, $350,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

  • Nebraska/Blue Dot - $132,000 raised today, $150,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

Here’s how you can do even more:

Help Hopium Get to 100,000! - Finally, please help me spread Hopium and grow this plucky community. Use this link to sign others up to be a Hopium subscriber. Note that options for group and gift subscriptions are available to those who want to bring friends and colleagues into the Hopium community. Click on the group and gift tabs here to learn more. To update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. We are just a few folks shy of 100,000 - thank you everyone!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

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Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Hopium Chronicles With Simon Rosenberg Podcast
Expert commentary from a 30 year veteran of US politics. Here we'll be working on strategies to defeat MAGA, tell our story more effectively and ensure freedom and democracy prevail. Expect sharp analysis, live events and all sorts of Hopium!