179 Comments

Marquette poll has Kamala leads Trump 6 to 8 points and outside the margin of error?

LFG. Keep our foot on the gas and run up the score.

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It feels good to see these polls out there, but we have to do the work. I'm making calls again tonight and looking forward to doing more. LFG!

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Roger remember we don't do buts, commas, semicolons and howevers here. So, in Hopium language, it should read:

"It feels good to see these polls out there, and now have to do the work. I'm making calls again tonight and looking forward to doing more. LFG!"

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Blue tsunami https://www.fieldteam6.org/

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I would take absolutely nothing for granted. The Civil War originated the saying of "Damn the Torpedoes." The 2024 Elections might popularize a similar saying, "Damn the Polls." Full speed ahead.

Michael

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Point taken! Sorry I'm still new in the community - I'm learning :D. It feels good to see these polls being so positive. I made more calls tonight and I'm going to make more calls tomorrow. LFG!

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Welcome, Roger. Thank you for making calls. And congratulations for getting a correction from Simon so early in your career on the comments section. Good job.

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founding

The joyous work is funnier 💙🗽

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Absolutely.

FULL SPEED AHEAD.

BLUE FULL BALLOT.

🩵💙

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Marquette poll is amazing, and keep in mind this was polled a full week ago. Winning 18-29s by 42 points! Winning independents by 20 points in the 2-way, 29(!) including third parties. LFG.

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More good news: COOK Political has changed its EV ratings for three Sunbelt States:

– AZ: From Lean R to Toss Up

– GA: From Lean R to Toss Up

– NV From Lean R to Toss Up

https://nitter.poast.org/CookPolitical/status/1821479486233235587#m

This is concrete evidence that Harris-Walz is expanding the map!

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"All right, all right, all right!"

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"Green lights!"

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What does EV mean in this context?

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Electoral Votes, probably?

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Thanks, Patrick. That makes sense. So do we know if Cook's ratings are based on registered voters or likely voters?

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Yes, Electoral Vote – specifically the chance each party’s presidential nominee has to win that state’s electoral votes.

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LLLLFFFFGGGG!!!!

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Joining Field Team 6's text bank tomorrow from 12 - 2 p.m. PST to register dems to vote in GA, MI, MT, NV, OH, & WI statewide and CA & NY by district. We have been sending out MILLIONS of texts, highly recommend going to their Saturday Zoom trainings to join the team and start texting multiple times through the week, feels great!

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BREAKING: Apparently Trump has caved on the agreed-upon 10 September ABC debate with our Democratic Presidential Nominee, Kamala Harris. (Clearly he realized that totally backing out made him look like a coward, which of course he is.)

I underscore *apparently* because the Trump Campaign has suggested two additional debates – and is attempting to sneak in a debate on Fox (4 September) before the ABC debate. The third proposed debate is for NBC on 25 September.

The idea of giving Trump a debate on Fox, where he wants "a full arena audience" would be tantamount to debating Trump at one of his own rallies. Absurd! Not gonna happen. Moreover. by making Fox the first debate, nothing prevents Trump from once again backing out afterwards.

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/08/trump-presidential-debate-dates-harris

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Imnsho, Kamala shouldn't agree that any of the debates are on Fox--when you tell nearly $800M worth of lies, you don't get to call yourself a news organization or get treated like one; you get the political death penalty instead for a "lack of institutional control" (to use language the average Fox viewer is likely familiar with)--at least three years of no bowl games, I mean general election debates.

If she *does* agree to hold one on Foxz she certainly shouldn't agree that it's the first one (because if he uses a stacked audience, slavish moderators, and the 'no fact-checking' rule he's been insisting on to "win" that one in the greedy eyes of the MSM, we can guarantee he'll find a way to skip out of the other two--past is prologue). Nor can it be the last one--no way should he and Fox be able to rig the final word. If she agrees to it at all, it *has* to be the middle debate. She's got the leverage on this, not him.

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I totally agree!

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And I! That's such a transparent maneuver, I can't believe FOX could think the Harris campaign would agree to it.

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founding

My wife and I drove from Minneapolis to the Wisconsin rally yesterday and it was unbelievable! People of all ages were there, and it was electric. Getting 12,000+ people to show up in Eau Claire, WI is no small feat. People are ready to go and very fired up.

Every time I see a positive poll, I keep hearing Simon's words in my head. Now is when we have to work even harder. Make more calls, knock on more doors, write more postcards. Democracy is not a spectator sport.

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Thanks for sharing about Eau Claire.

My husband and I were supposed to go to DTW rally, but we had a last-minute hitch. So we watched it on PBS livestreamed. OMG, it was great!! We especially loved Kamala's "momala eyes" takedown of the one heckler. "I'm talking now!" She is magnificent!!

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founding

👏🏿👏🏻👏🏾👏🥳🎉🗽

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Strength and decorum from Madam Vice President. She’s got the touch!

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Yes! Using the good news, momentum and excitement to work even harder is the key. That’s rational exuberance for you!

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How did you get the postcards? I filled out form but no response.

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founding

This is where I have been going. They are so overwhelmed by demand that it takes about 4 weeks for them to be delivered.

https://secure.everyaction.com/wWYzSycvi0uyLrKtsMnNXw2

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Thanks--I'm finding lot of options on Etsy that get delivered earlier, too. Glad there's a big demand!

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Blue Wave postcards is a great resource!

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Do they send addresses?

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They do! Pre-printed address labels. And the cards are pre-printed, too!

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Just so folks know, the fact that 12,000+ folks show up to a rally in Eau Claire is partly a function of organic Kamala enthusiasm, and partly a result of hard organizing work done by Democratic volunteers, who were phoning local Democrats in the days preceding said rally, urging them to RSVP and attend.

*YOU* can be one of those very volunteers! Click the link below to register for onboarding/training for the DNC Call Crew! Once trained, you'll be able to make calls for Kamala anytime, on your own schedule! Suddenly got an extra 15 minutes? Knock out some calls for Kamala!

Join me on the crew!

https://events.democrats.org/event/388091/

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Oh, is that the rally Trump said only 1,500 people attended (while JD was entertaining a few reporters at his "rally" across town)? According to him, she has a long way to reach his Jan 6th crowd, which he said today was bigger than MLK's March on Washington and I Have A Dream speech. "You never see pictures of the size of that crowd," he claimed.

Actually there are plenty, eg https://images.app.goo.gl/UMyJoy8tAraLC6dE9 some even taken by Trump supporting outlets https://images.app.goo.gl/ypKis6wytGyttsHb6 ....and no, not even close. To be fair, contra Dr Feelgood Ronny Jackson, Trump *isn't really* 6'3," maybe he didn't have his shoes with the two inch lifts in them (now you know, if you didn't already, why he trashed DeSantis for wearing them; as always, every attack is a confession), and maybe he just couldn't see all the way to the back. Or maybe he's a Sunset Boulevard fan. I'll grant him this: his crowd size is bigger than his hands.

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founding

Awesome sauce💙🗽

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Much has been made of the fact that the Walz pick missed an opportunity to nail down electoral votes, specifically in Pennsylvania. This view misses, however, the fact that Walz CAN help decisively in the electoral college. Yes, he is governor of Minnesota, but he was born and raised in Nebraska, and that one vote from Nebraska is key for a strategy of winning the combination Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Those 3 swing states would assure victory for Harris, but only with the addition of that one vote from Nebraska. That gets us to 270 exactly.

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Moreover, with Shapiro being governor 24/7 instead of campaigning all over the country for three months, he’ll probably do far more to ensure that Kamala Harris carries Pennsylvania.

Tim Walz sounds like ordinary folks – and America is clearly ready to listen. Whatever their other strengths, many of the other VP candidates *sound* like politicians.

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Side note: Governor Roy Cooper withdrew his name from consideration partly because of an intolerable overhanging danger. The very moment he’d leave the state to campaign elsewhere, North Carolina law dictates that Mark Robinson would be stepping up as acting governor – a recipe for heinous decisions and havoc!

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Roy Cooper tore a page out of Joe Biden's "Do what's best for your country, not your ego" page with this decision. I am a grateful North Carolinian!

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And we are grateful Americans! Thanks you, Gov Cooper. Didn't realize that's how it goes.

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NC elects Gov and Lt. Governor separately and we have a history of split tickets. In 2020, the GOP Lt. Governor ran against Gov. Roy Cooper and lost. So there was no incumbent Lt. Gov running and Robinson won - even though he was relatively unknown. I don't understand how he won his primary for Gov. this year - the GOP must like the MAGA.

I'm working hard registering new voters and now writing postcards for Josh Stein. Mark Robinson would be a disaster as Governor!!

https://www.realmarkrobinson.com/

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Aug 8·edited Aug 8

In addition, he (Gov. Cooper) would make a great candidate to run against Tom Tillis for his senate seat in 2026!

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Now that’s an idea I like! He’ll be 69 but he appears to be in excellent health – especially from the neck up!

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wow!

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Shapiro will definitely do all he can to bring home PA. Eye on the ball!

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In addition, parts of WI fall in a MN media market, so you get a two-fer. Plus, I'd be willing to bet that value-wise, there are a lot of similarities between rural voters in WI and MN. So Walz's record of winning in rural, red MN bodes well for how he will do in rural, red Wi.

If you haven't seen this, I recommend checking out this Substack post from Jess Piper:

https://open.substack.com/pub/jesspiper/p/tim-walz?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Gov.Walz, wasn't able to attend the Rural American for Harris call, but a whole lot of other people did.

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What are we to make of tfg not campaigning this week (except Montana)?

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Mort, I wrote about that in yesterday's "Melting Down" post and take about it extensively in my presentation. He and the campaign are melting down right now.

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The Trump campaign is doing their best to Swift Boat Gov. Walz. I want to watch and hear the Rapid Response to their attacks! I still remember how they cruelly destroyed John Kerry in 2004.

This has to be dealt with immediately.

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The campaign and campaign allies have already been aggressive, and are on this. Trump campaign fighting back now, desperately, for they feel the election slipping away from them.

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Kerry was the presidential candidate and the swift boat campaign was aimed at his having received a silver star. Veterans were already ambivalent about him because he had once been considered a turncoat for testifying against the war to Congress as a young man. Saying your VP "conveniently" retired after 22 years to avoid deployment is a lot less powerful an attack. Just put Mayor Pete on TV to deal with this foolishness.

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Mayor Pete already responded!

His tweet:

“Come to think of it, denigrating the worth of a soldier’s service based on whether he deployed to a war zone is…kind of like denigrating the worth of a woman’s citizenship based on whether she happens to have children.”

😁

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Aug 8·edited Aug 8

That is priceless!

I'm hoping that Veterans are already disgusted with the GOP - between Trump's "suckers and losers" comments and GOP congressmen fist-bumping because they thought they were sticking one to Biden on the PACT Act (which eventually passed), I would hope they have realized that the GOP doesn't have Veterans' backs!

Vote Vets reissued an ad they had made for Walz when he first ran for Congress. I imagine they are putting together a new one now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wk5fNFKtK3E

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My hope is that having veterans like Pete Buttigieg and Tim Walz communicating in such a public way will help stitch back some together some of the tears Trumpism has made in the country. I love the new camo merch that Harris-Walz has rolled out. It's OK for everyone to join the pro-democracy forces of joy and freedom!

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Actually, I find B's response unhelpful. Jason Kander has an excellent analysis /summary that I found on Nitter, sometimes difficult to link so possible I won't be able to (if anyone on twitter finds, please link). Kander (MO), who withdrew from politics to deal with his PTSD, after a thorough analysis of the swiftboating, talks about reactions to deployed to a war zone / not deployed to a war zone as an issue and connects with PTSD and related issues [my phrasing]

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Democrats have learned from past baseless attacks and are responding. Sure wish the media would learn....

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This is already boomeranging back with a vengeance!

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I was watching a YouTube Video and they queued up a Bulwark video where Adam Kinzinger was the guest, so I decided to watch it. He is absolutely furious at the MAGA GOP and goes into great detail about why nothing about their efforts to smear Walz's military record is true. You should give it a listen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SKektapyaE

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Thank you for pointing this out and providing a link, Cheryl. Former Illinois Republican Kinzinger is a man of integrity. He served on the Jan. 6 committee with Lynne Cheney, is a proud veteran, and has endorsed Biden/Harris and now Harris/Walz. His previous chief of staff is heading up the 'Republicans for Harris' committee. He and the others in that group are disgusted with MAGA---check out Kinzinger's great newsletter, Friday videos, and Country First website (I'm a fan AND a life-long Illinois Democrat!)

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The Washington Post shamefully tried to carry the GOP's water on this with a front page story with a slanted headline and slanted copy that somehow managed to stay above the fold for an unusually long time.. At last count, there were 8,998 responses, of which I would estimate 8,,996 were harshly negative, and if people are being truthful, they lost a non-trivial number of subscribers over it. For my part, I create a monthly newsletter for a political client with a mix of the client's blog posts and readings. I wrote the client and told them that unless they instruct me otherwise, I will not be including any more Post stories as readings. If they agree, I'll be writing the story's authors and letting them know. In my experience, they do try to read what's written to them directly.

PS Anyone who looks at the Post's polling averages and compares them to 538's will find them more favorable to Trump across the board. One poster who seemed to know what he was talking about provided an appalogical explanation for this (ie outrageous, but makes sense/par for the course): they are apparently still including the final weeks of Trump-Biden polls in their averages. If this is true, wow, just wow. If they were academics, this would be considered fraud and they'd lose their jobs. FWIW.

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I’ll be on the postcarding call tonite. Pls make sure the postcard message includes the early voting dates in CA AND folks can get stamped postcards at their local USPS like I did yesterday! Then decorate with colored pens.

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Susan, this week is Kirsten Engels in AZ; next week is Will Rollins in CA.

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Aug 8Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Hi Simon, I need to miss tonight and next week as we are traveling to Scotland and Ireland for 15 days! I’m so excited to be able to hold my head up as we have such an awesome Democratic TICKET!!!

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Enjoy the good craic!

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founding
Aug 8·edited Aug 8

Have a great time Sharon! Just got back from 2 weeks in Scotland and it was wonderful! Spent time in Edinburgh, Inverness and Isle of Skye. What a beautiful and friendly country, and as I'm a history buff, all the castles, palaces, battlefields, cathedrals and just plain cool old buildings were awesome. Might be crazy in Edinburgh if you'll be there right now with the Fringe Fest in full roar but I suspect it's a blast (my son is working at some venues there).

Enjoy!

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We have been invited to spend our first week with friends in a castle that their friends purchased a few years ago! I’m really excited.

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founding

I am so jealous! Sounds wonderful!

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Guys, our voter registration efforts were going strong yesterday even with Debby bearing down on us! Had a lady ask me why I was there as my 17-year-old and I were setting up our voter registration table and she waited for us to get it together because she wanted to register ASAP. When she finished, she apologized for making us hustle! SO MUCH ENERGY and all we have to do is harness it. Like Coach Walz said, "We'll sleep when we're dead!"

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RemovedAug 8
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Russell, NC is in play. It's within margin of error in all recent polling; Trump is now on the air there; Mark Robinson and their crazypants ticket give us an a real opportunity; and we have an energized and strong state party. I believe we can and should win there.

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Let's not forget how great NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton is! She is the Ben Wikler of NC!!

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Thanks Russell! Durham (where I am) has the power to carry Harris/Walz and all the statewide seats if we can match 2008 turnout of 76 percent. So we are working day and night. LFG!

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Yep, It is Mecklenburg county that needs to pick up the pace. If we had matched Durham's % Democratic turnout, Trump woud have lost NC

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I’m joyfully writing postcards to North Carolina!

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Amazing! Thank you from the bottom of my blue dot heart!

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💙💙💙This North Carolinian thanks you, also!

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Well done, you rock!!!

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Simon. The post card link DOES NOT work!! It keeps giving an “ error” message after I try to sign up.

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Dineen it just worked for me. I will sign you up. Look forward to seeing you tonight!

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Are you trying to sign up using an iPad? People on iPhones were having issues over the weekend signing up for last night's Zoom. If you have access to a different device or browser, try that. If you are on a windows device try clearing your cache or rebooting. Windows just reloads the page, so an intermittent error can persist

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I've tried 3 times on my MacBook Pro laptop (once on Simon's Thursdays) to sign up, and it has rejected my password 3 times. I'm waiting to hear from their Help email, and ended up ordering postcards (to go to Nebraska) from Best Blue Wave, so at least I'll be doing SOMETHING.

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Well Simon said something about contacting zoom. I'm pretty sure all the issues were with Apple products rather than being random, which would make it very difficult to track down.

I'm not an IT person, but I suspect either Zoom did an update or Apple did and something got messed up. Have you checked to see if you have the most current version of Zoom installed? It looks like Zoom may have updated the macOS on July 30th. There is link to the download center in their release notes:

https://support.zoom.com/hc/en/article?id=zm_kb&sysparm_article=KB0068891

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Thanks so much, Cheryl, I use Zoom frequently, but didn't see that they updated recently, so I went into my account and downloaded the July 30 update. Hopefully this will help!

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PS A sample message for postcarding tonite: “ Hi ( first name) Thanks for being a voter! You can vote early in CA( give dates) and bring other voters with you!

Sign (your first name), a volunteer”

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Susan - we aren't writing postcards to CA tonight. Kirsten Engel is in AZ.

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People have had enough of Trump. It's that simple. The idea of this guy running his mouth for 12 years, saying the same crap over and over again, does not appeal to the mainstream. Then they look at his rallies with a bunch of flat-earthers taping toilet paper to their ears and wearing the most embarrassing MAGA gear Chinese sweatshops can make, and say, "no thanks." Let's press the advantage and GOTV.

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I love how you don’t hold back Simon! Let’s roll!

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I got an email with the script and the names and addresses yesterday evening.

I just wanted to give everybody a heads up in case they have an out of control mailbox like mine. 😵‍💫😧😵‍💫 That way you aren't scrambling to find them at the last minute like I often am for a Zoom link when the meeting starts in a few minutes!

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Cheryl you're the best! Look forward to bumping into you in NC somehow!

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I'll be sure and PM you if I will be anywhere near Durham. You do the same if you are coming to Charlotte. 💙💙💙

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My Senator posted yesterday a great tweet about the prank Vance pulled on the tarmac yesterday.

"These guys are paper thin. Everything rattles them and causes fits. Trump melted down in the face of COVID. Putin dominated him. Now Kamala’s surge is making them act like insecure middle schoolers. They aren’t prepared to lead - plain and simple." Senator Chris Murphy

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Can someone help me with tonight's link? We are writing postcards right?

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founding

Simon, if you haven't yet watched Tim Walz' speech in Detroit, you should do so. At one point, he essentially uses your language. And it was a great speech.

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