Happy Thursday all. I start off today proud of my President, proud of my party, proud of my country and very proud of the Kamala Harris and Tim Walz who are bringing it everyday, running an extraordinary campaign and answering history’s call at a time of enormous peril.
Last night I did a briefing for Hopium paid subscribers on the 2024 election. A recording is above. I hope you will watch and share with others you think might be interested.
I talked about three things last night - 1) Harris’s gains in post-debate polling, 2) why we are far more likely to close strong in the home stretch and win; 3) and the incredible importance of the Fed’s cutting of interest rates for the election.
First, the polls. I went into depth about the very encouraging polls in my last two posts (here, here). Harris has clearly gained a point or two since the debate, maybe more, averaging a 4 point lead in these post-debate polls. The state polls we’ve seen, including ones outside the battleground, now have her at or above Biden’s 2020 results. 4 polls released in Pennsylvania this week have her up 2, 3, 5 and one more has her tied. While the Electoral College is close today, VP Harris’s path to 270 is much clearer and achievable. Republican Senate candidates and Mark Robinson in NC continue to underperform in key battlegrounds. Sherrod Brown has a slight lead in Ohio and we all think the Tester race is a toss up. The House is likely to flip. We should be encouraged by all this data, deeply encouraged. We are making gains, and Harris is today running at or above Biden 2020 - an election we won - nationally and in the states. But Biden 2020 was a close election, too close and we have to make things better in these 40+ days of the “voting season” that begins tomorrow. We have to keep gaining ground, keep busting our ass to put greater distance between VP Harris and Trump.
The second thing I talked about is that it’s far more likely that we close strong than them, and thus is far more likely that we win. We have meaningful advantages in money, on the ground and in enthusiasm. We’ve been overperforming polls and expectations in elections of all kinds across the country since Dobbs. They have been underperforming public polls and expectations in elections of all kinds since Dobbs. We are going to pick up hundreds of thousands of new voters through our newly super-charged voter reg efforts. We are now beating them on social media. The struggling Republican Senate and gubernatorial candidates are going to be drags on Trump in the battlegrounds. The abortion ballot initiatives will be potent in-your-face reminders of their dangerous extremism in several critical battleground states. We are unified and together. Their party has fractured, and their ticket faces unprecedented opposition from within.
Our ticket is just better than theirs. Our arguments are more connected to the every day concerns of voters - not sharks and batteries, dogs and cats, naked First Ladies. While we bring optimism, love of country and joy they bring pessimism, fealty to Putin and darkness. Our candidates are well liked. Theirs are not. Our candidates are for the people. Theirs are for the oligarchs.
Our candidate didn’t crash and do enormous harm to himself in the debate. Our candidate is not a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon. Our candidate isn’t causing young, healthy women to die because of extremist, misogynistic abortion bans; didn’t try to end American democracy for all time; doesn’t want more kids to die in school, the planet to warm faster, or tens of millions to lose their health insurance; hasn’t stripped the rights and freedoms away of the women of America, rights and freedoms common throughout the modern world. Our candidate isn’t terrorizing communities of hard working, patriotic Americans to play out some fascistic fantasies. Our candidate doesn’t want to wreck the global economy which has made us prosperous, tear apart the global alliances which have kept us safe and end our democracy which has kept us free.
Our candidate is Kamala Harris. Theirs is the ugliest political thing we’ve seen.
What I believe is that the Democratic Party and our ticket is just more muscular and stronger than theirs, and it is far more likely that we will make gains in this long voting season, build on our lead and win this thing this November. This long voting season is an opportunity to be seized, not something that will just happen - and we need to seize it.
The third thing I talked about was how the Fed’s cutting of interest rates yesterday was a powerful reminder of the success of the Biden-Harris Presidency. Here’s how I wrote about this success a few weeks ago:
When the dust settles, and the Russian-backed MAGA movement fades, America will come to understand how lucky we were that Joe Biden won the 2020 Presidential election. His Day 1 as President was among the most challenging in our history - pre-vaccine COVID, economic collapse, Trump’s disastrous management of the pandemic, an insurrection, the first time America failed to have a peaceful transfer of power, the lack of a traditional Presidential transition - just unbelievable levels of Trumpian chaos as far as the eye could see. And today, almost four years later, America’s economy is “the envy of the world.” Growth here has been far above the growth in other advanced economies. We’ve had the best job market in 60 years. The lowest uninsured rate in history. Record levels of new business formation. Wage growth has outpaced inflation. The stock market is setting records. Joe Biden has made historic investments in our economy and workers that will be creating jobs and opportunity for the American people for decades to come. We’ve dramatically accelerated the energy transition necessary to keep the planet from warming. We’ve beaten inflation - a global phenomenon - and interest rate cuts are coming now. We are more energy independent today than we’ve been in decades. Crimes rates which had gone up under Donald Trump have come down under Joe Biden. The deficit which skyrocketed under Donald Trump has come down under Joe Biden. Despite reckless Republican obstruction, flows to the border are lower today than they were under Donald Trump. Joe Biden passed the first major gun safety legislation in 30 years, retired hundreds of billions of dollars of student debt, reinvigorated the Western alliance and has now landed a serious and long overdue blow against Russian influence operations here in the United States.
When I speak to my three Gen Z children I tell them that because of Joe Biden they will have more opportunities in their lives. The planet is less likely to warm. They are less likely to be shot in school. They will probably never know what it is like to lack health insurance. It will be easier for them to travel for work and pleasure. They will still live in a democracy, and be able to vote for their leaders. That it far more likely that the America I grew up in, a land of unending opportunity, respected in the world, will be the America they experience in their own lives as they age. Someday the young people of 2024 America will come to understand that this man they see as old and distant did so much for them and their families, and I believe they will be grateful that the American people choose him over the deranged, traitorous, serial criminal who still somehow plagues our politics, attacks our freedoms and insults our intelligence every moment of every day.
Enjoy the video. Share it others. Be excited about where we are, and the opportunity in front of us. Be proud of your President who has made things far, far better for all of us. And be determined to work harder in these next 40+ days for our great and inspiring candidate Kamala Harris than anything you have ever worked for. As the Vice President keeps reminding us the baton has not been passed to her. It’s been be passed to us. And now we need to go out and win this thing for our freedoms, for our democracy and our future, together.
Hopium Winning The House Thursday For Laura Gillen (NY-4) Tonight at 6pm - Due to the VP’s sit down with Oprah at 8pm tonight our Hopium Winning The House Thursday will be at 6pm ET not 730pm. Please register here to postcard or call for Laura Gillen. We need to rally for Laura tonight - Trump campaigned in her district yesterday and we need to send some Hopium community love to her very competitive House district!
Tonight we will hear from Laura a little after 6pm and I will do a 10 minute review of the latest polling and electoral data after we finish our work. So you get to do good work, hang out with fellow optimists, and hear from Simon and the candidate. It’s a pretty good deal.
We’ve had a great response this week and tonight’s event will be our most widely attended yet. Looking forward to seeing folks soon!
Doing More, Worrying Less - Our community has already done so much. In 2023 we helped win elections in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. We kept working hard in 2024, helping win another election in Florida and NY-3, the Suozzi special election. This year we’ve focused our energy on three big projects:
Electing Harris-Walz by supporting the ticket and working to win our “checkmate” states of Arizona, Nebraska (NE-2, the blue dot) and North Carolina
Flipping the House by working to elect Democrats in the 11 mostly likely Republican held seats to flip. We’ve both been raising money for these critical races and launched a weekly Thursday night program to postcard and call into the districts.
Keep the Senate by getting in early and supporting Ruben Gallego, an open seat candidate in a critical battleground state who started late (due to Sinema staying in longer than expected) and needed a boost.
Together we have now raised over $1m each for Harris-Walz, AZ/NE-2/NC and our Winning The House 11. Thank you all. Every time the Hopium community has been called you have answered.
With new our new ticket and our new electoral landscape, after consulting with folks here in DC, and listening to the recommendations of the Hopium community, today I am updating our 2024 targets by adding four more open seat and challenger races to our Winning The House list and the Tester and Sherrod Brown Senate races. I have also set new, ambitious goals for our existing candidates and states.
In the House we are adding the following candidates to our core 11:
Amish Shah (AZ-01) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Derek Tran (CA-45) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Christina Bohannan (IA-01) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Janelle Stelson (PA-10) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
There are now three ways to support our 4 new candidates. Our one click donation now spreads your donation to all 15 of our House candidates. I’ve established a new link to give just to these four. And of course you can go to our Winning The House page and give directly to any one of our candidates.
All of our House candidates with the exception of Bohannan and Stelson are the 13 races rated most likely to flip red to blue in the Cook Report. We’ve added Bohannan and Stelson due to my discussions with folks here in DC, and their optimism about what we are seeing emerge in the new post-Kamala landscape for the House. They are stretch but doable races. I know some of you are advocating for other candidates and I will take one more look at everything in early October and make adjustments if warranted.
So here is our new, updated Hopium doing more and worrying less list, with a new fundraising goal date of November 1. And friends, thank you. These last two days have been two of the biggest fundraising days in the history of this plucky project. The Hopium community is clearly fired up and ready to go!
Harris-Walz For President - $1,056,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel. Hard work is good work!
Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two frontline state parties:
North Carolina - $480,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $362,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $170,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
Winning The House - There are three ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:
Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,103,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates
Support The New 4 - $25,245 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. This is amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!
Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:
Montana/Jon Tester - $19,036 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $12,450 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $362,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
I view the Tester race as a toss up and Sherrod Brown maintains a small lead. I know there is chatter out there that Tester trails. I don’t believe we have enough data to say that. The last two polls in the state were conducted by the Republican Party and Trump’s pollster. The one before that had Tester ahead. The Senate folks here in DC view this race as a toss up as will Hopium until there is data clearly showing something else, either way.
My general take on the Senate right now is that we are favored in every race except Montana (an amazing achievement), and Montana is likely to stay close and be decided on Election Day. I am keeping an eye on the other possible Senate stretch races but for now I think adding Tester and Brown is an important additional step for our community, and one many of you have been advocating for over the last few months.
Ways you can do even more -
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in MN, SD, VA on September 20th - just 2 days away!
Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!
Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.
Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 113,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you! - Simon
Leading In The Polls, Beating Inflation, An Inspiring Ticket - The Democratic Party Enters The Home Stretch Strong, Confident, Ready To Win (Video)