It's better than previous NYT/Siena polls, the PA result is really good in that poll, it's one of many many polls....the trend across them all is positive.
Yep - even with his very heavy hand on the scale even Cohn is showing movement towards Harris. I bet by November he’ll be right in the averages and will then claim he was accurate all along. It’s a typical sleight of hand from the polling Nates. And part of the reason we seem to always be stuck with their nonsense every election cycle.
Dan, I am sorry but that's it. Your contributions on here continue to be designed it seems to try to bring everyone down. It's trollish behavior, and I've asked you to stop, before. I am refunding your money and ask that you go hang out somewhere else. Thank you. S
thank you, Simon. i didn't read what he said but when a Substack author allows trolls to run amok in their comment sections, i unsubscribe and i love your newsletters.
And in other economic news, the stockmarket keeps ... uhm, crashing upwards!
Clear evidence of Trump’s economic prowess: the share price of Truth Social is down another 4.1 percent so far today, dipping under $15. (I wonder if any savvy investors are shorting that stock?)
Great column Simon. I hope the administration and the Harris/Walz campaign read your summary on point 3. Biden has achieved the soft landing for the economy that Wall Street and the GOP were betting he couldn't do. As many site the economy as their chief concern, the campaign needs to lean into this as we near election day.
Simon, I remember after I joined this community last spring that in addition to providing the group with hope and motivation, your other goal was to provide us with the tools to make sound arguments backed up by facts for President Biden and now Kamala Harris. After paying close attention to your arguments over these past many months (seems like light years ago), memorizing some key facts, and drawing on my own life experiences, I feel well equipped and confident to knock doors and make calls even during the more difficult conversations. At the doors and during calls, I do hold my own even when it gets a bit rough:) You’re right - the Hopium community is motivated by love of country and an understanding that this is a historic and consequential moment. We really needed the tools to be confident and then do something about it. Game on! Thank you!
With abortion on the ballot in Montana, I have more optimism than some. However, I've learned that Montana lags in women who have registered to vote. Something, somehow needs to be done about that. According to vote.org here is the information for Montana for voter registration.
In Person: Noon, the day before Election Day.
By Mail: Postmarked 30 days before Election Day and received 27 days before Election Day.
Online: N/A
You may register and vote on Election Day through the late registration option.
Also, Montana does not have real early voting. Here is what is allowed, beginning October 7: "Montana does not have true early voting, but does have in-person absentee voting that allows electors, as soon as absentee ballots are available, to receive, mark and submit an absentee ballot in person at the election office or by mail to the election office. However, ballots are not counted until election day. Early-in person absentee voting does not require a reason and starts as soon as ballots are available – by not later than 30 days before an election." This is so complicated and confusing for so many voters. And - it's deliberate.
FT 6 sent hundreds of thousands of texts to MT, also for Monica Trane. Can't register electronically. Experience dictates that 3 "touches" usually motivate new registrations.
Do you foresee a potential pathway to victory for Colin Alred in the senate? The TX seat could very well flip and shows that promise more than in last elections.
I just want to reinforce Simon’s direction that we stop sinking into fear and worry. Not only is there no reason to do that right now but because every time we indulge in fear and worry we are giving Trump and MAGA power in this campaign. No one follows a pessimist. Celebrate tge fact that 538 Forecast has moved MI, WI, PA and NV to “lean D.” My team of volunteers will drop more than 40K personalized postcards with reproductive right messages in AZCD06 in 10 days. We’re targeting all registered AZCD06 voters who support abortion rights but have only voted in 2 of the last general elections. Arizonans begin voting on Oct 9 and 85-90 % of us vote before Election Day. Onward !!!
Postcards saved my sanity while I was stuck in the house recovering from COVID this week. They're also one of the only opportunities I have to color as an adult. :)
Thank you, thank you Simon. I follow many other voices and sites and continue to be amazed at the navel gazing and hand wringing that is put out as newsworthy. Your perspective and this communities reality based generative grounding is so refreshing. I find your site the calm in the eye of media storms and really appreciate your work.
I missed last night because I was at a post carding party! I am taking your comments about leaving it on the playing field seriously. One thing I am doing is not spending money on things I can put off for three months and using those relatively small amounts to donate to candidates. I just sent money to Sherrod Brown and the 4 new congressional candidates. Post carding here tonight and making a plan for who I will post card for on my own in the next week. Thank you!!!
Same here! I was hosting first timers. My goal is to get them to sign up to be poll greeters to give people the Democratic slate and explain how important it is to vote the whole ballot. Let's get Dems to 0% dropoff!
Let's stop back footing the economy. It is in great shape and has been for years. The Republicans have no advantage on this topic and no plan to get one.
In answer to the question "Are you better off than four years ago?" the answer for the US economy is yes and for a large number of Americans too if I understand the figures correctly. Pay has been growing faster than inflation, unemployment is far lower, etc. Also, the US economy, like economies across the world, is transitioning from one based on fossil fuels to a clean energy economy. It will take time and the fossil fuels are necessary. The Democrat approach of using the fossil fuel opportunity to fund diversification and the creation of millions of new jobs in renewables and associated technologies is so much better than the Republican drill, burn, don't invest and regret option.
Do you have more streaming service subscriptions then you did 4 years ago? Are you doing more online gambling then you did 4 years ago? Are you using an iPhone 16? If you answered yes to any (or all) of these questions that's because the economy has been on fire. This idea that Trump and the Republicans are good for the economy has always been insane.
And here's another one: immigration is not broken, "THE BORDER" (as Fox news would say) is fine. Neither are even a top 50 concern. We only talk about them when Trump is running for office. When Trump is gone (or reelected) watch how they never get mentioned again.
Keep an eye on Texas. Obama lost by 16 (in 2012); Clinton lost by 9; Biden lost by 5.6. National Dems are not spending time or money in Texas. Harris will narrow the game some more. The closer she gets to a point or two, the more vulnerable Ted Cruz becomes.
The Electoral College allows minority rule; the Senate filibuster ensures minority rule. Dems need to fix the filibuster.
The Cruz outcome will be close. Why? Changing demographics. Texas will have a net loss of 350,000 "Whites" this election than 2020 (We see close to 90,000 more "white" Texans die every year than Hispanic Texans. Plus, we see more than 400,000 Texans turn 18 every year.
Older whites dying lean Republican; Young Hispanic voters lean Dem.
The GOP's candidate is a court adjudicated rapist. Ours is not.
The GOP's candidate is a court adjudicated conman and fraudster. Ours is not.
The GOP's candidate is a vile racists and xenophobe, having inappropriate relationships with known white nationalists and antisemites and spreading crazy lies about immigrants eating pets. Ours is none of that.
The GOP's candidate is an insurrectionist who attempted to overthrow our government on January 6, 2021 and speaks contemptuously of democracy on one hand and lovingly of homicidal dictators on the other. Ours is none of that.
The GOP's candidate is a creepy sexual predator who is on video sexualizing his own young daughter. Ours is none of that.
The GOP's candidate thought shoving a light bulb down one's throat or up one's ass may protect one from COVID. Ours went with science and the vaccine.
The GOP's candidate believes in more tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and massive tariff taxes for the rest of us. Ours believes that the ultra wealthy aren't paying their fair share and that the middle class deserves meaningful tax relief.
The GOP's candidate brags about how he ended Roe v. Wade and supports abortion bans in the states. Ours will protect women's rights to reproductive freedom.
Etc.
You get the point. Scream this out loud. Make sure others get the point. Any way you can. There is work to do here. MOCKERY IS OUR BEST WEAPON. MOCKERY WORKS. WE CAN'T LET UP!
P.S. - As for the bed wetting on the NYT poll, any poll in the year 2024 that shows the Dem POTUS candidate tied nationally but up by 4% in PA is so ridiculously flawed it should not have been released.
All fair points, but along with the light bulb suppository you forgot to mention the bleach injections. As for the polls - they are, collectively, good. And as you so rightly say, whatever the polls say all anyone can do is work for Harris/Walz and try to get them to outperform the polls through an efficient ground game. As I understand, the ground game and GOTV operations are in stark contrasts and the Democratic operation could win this election because it is so much better.
It's better than previous NYT/Siena polls, the PA result is really good in that poll, it's one of many many polls....the trend across them all is positive.
Yep - even with his very heavy hand on the scale even Cohn is showing movement towards Harris. I bet by November he’ll be right in the averages and will then claim he was accurate all along. It’s a typical sleight of hand from the polling Nates. And part of the reason we seem to always be stuck with their nonsense every election cycle.
Dan, I am sorry but that's it. Your contributions on here continue to be designed it seems to try to bring everyone down. It's trollish behavior, and I've asked you to stop, before. I am refunding your money and ask that you go hang out somewhere else. Thank you. S
thank you, Simon. i didn't read what he said but when a Substack author allows trolls to run amok in their comment sections, i unsubscribe and i love your newsletters.
Small typo:
we are favored in every race expected Montana (an amazing achievement),
should be -----> we are favored in every race EXCEPT Montana (an amazing achievement),
Sen. Jon Tester appeared on MSNBC last night:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrG49_xaGaA
Thanks
A delightful title on today’s blog post from Jeff Tiedrich (expletive modified):
"Kamala is running a near-perfect campaign and it’s driving the press insane"
– the media’s in a sour mood because Kamala’s f***ing with their Narrative
https://www.jefftiedrich.com/p/kamala-is-running-a-near-perfect
I love Jeff's honest take on things!
Bookies are as valid as polls.
Closing RCP Average Kamala 52.4 Trump 46.1
Bovada is the outlier Harris 52 Trump 49
Excellent news - thanks!
I really enjoyed last night’s meeting. It was very encouraging.
And in other economic news, the stockmarket keeps ... uhm, crashing upwards!
Clear evidence of Trump’s economic prowess: the share price of Truth Social is down another 4.1 percent so far today, dipping under $15. (I wonder if any savvy investors are shorting that stock?)
I keep askin' the media to cover the schmucks that paid $79 a share.
Bad at business. Worse at government.
Great column Simon. I hope the administration and the Harris/Walz campaign read your summary on point 3. Biden has achieved the soft landing for the economy that Wall Street and the GOP were betting he couldn't do. As many site the economy as their chief concern, the campaign needs to lean into this as we near election day.
Simon, I remember after I joined this community last spring that in addition to providing the group with hope and motivation, your other goal was to provide us with the tools to make sound arguments backed up by facts for President Biden and now Kamala Harris. After paying close attention to your arguments over these past many months (seems like light years ago), memorizing some key facts, and drawing on my own life experiences, I feel well equipped and confident to knock doors and make calls even during the more difficult conversations. At the doors and during calls, I do hold my own even when it gets a bit rough:) You’re right - the Hopium community is motivated by love of country and an understanding that this is a historic and consequential moment. We really needed the tools to be confident and then do something about it. Game on! Thank you!
With abortion on the ballot in Montana, I have more optimism than some. However, I've learned that Montana lags in women who have registered to vote. Something, somehow needs to be done about that. According to vote.org here is the information for Montana for voter registration.
In Person: Noon, the day before Election Day.
By Mail: Postmarked 30 days before Election Day and received 27 days before Election Day.
Online: N/A
You may register and vote on Election Day through the late registration option.
Also, Montana does not have real early voting. Here is what is allowed, beginning October 7: "Montana does not have true early voting, but does have in-person absentee voting that allows electors, as soon as absentee ballots are available, to receive, mark and submit an absentee ballot in person at the election office or by mail to the election office. However, ballots are not counted until election day. Early-in person absentee voting does not require a reason and starts as soon as ballots are available – by not later than 30 days before an election." This is so complicated and confusing for so many voters. And - it's deliberate.
More than 56% of voters in MT are women. https://www.mobilize.us/events/montana-volunteer-opportunities/
FT 6 sent hundreds of thousands of texts to MT, also for Monica Trane. Can't register electronically. Experience dictates that 3 "touches" usually motivate new registrations.
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
Good day Simon,
Do you foresee a potential pathway to victory for Colin Alred in the senate? The TX seat could very well flip and shows that promise more than in last elections.
Rep. Allred was just endorsed by former Rep. Liz Cheney for Senate in Texas against Ted Cruz. Amazing and hopefully a helpful endorsement.
I just got an email fm the Allred campaign that shows him up 1 over Cruz.
I just want to reinforce Simon’s direction that we stop sinking into fear and worry. Not only is there no reason to do that right now but because every time we indulge in fear and worry we are giving Trump and MAGA power in this campaign. No one follows a pessimist. Celebrate tge fact that 538 Forecast has moved MI, WI, PA and NV to “lean D.” My team of volunteers will drop more than 40K personalized postcards with reproductive right messages in AZCD06 in 10 days. We’re targeting all registered AZCD06 voters who support abortion rights but have only voted in 2 of the last general elections. Arizonans begin voting on Oct 9 and 85-90 % of us vote before Election Day. Onward !!!
Postcards saved my sanity while I was stuck in the house recovering from COVID this week. They're also one of the only opportunities I have to color as an adult. :)
Thank you, thank you Simon. I follow many other voices and sites and continue to be amazed at the navel gazing and hand wringing that is put out as newsworthy. Your perspective and this communities reality based generative grounding is so refreshing. I find your site the calm in the eye of media storms and really appreciate your work.
Same here, Charles. Well-said!
I missed last night because I was at a post carding party! I am taking your comments about leaving it on the playing field seriously. One thing I am doing is not spending money on things I can put off for three months and using those relatively small amounts to donate to candidates. I just sent money to Sherrod Brown and the 4 new congressional candidates. Post carding here tonight and making a plan for who I will post card for on my own in the next week. Thank you!!!
Same here! I was hosting first timers. My goal is to get them to sign up to be poll greeters to give people the Democratic slate and explain how important it is to vote the whole ballot. Let's get Dems to 0% dropoff!
Let's stop back footing the economy. It is in great shape and has been for years. The Republicans have no advantage on this topic and no plan to get one.
In answer to the question "Are you better off than four years ago?" the answer for the US economy is yes and for a large number of Americans too if I understand the figures correctly. Pay has been growing faster than inflation, unemployment is far lower, etc. Also, the US economy, like economies across the world, is transitioning from one based on fossil fuels to a clean energy economy. It will take time and the fossil fuels are necessary. The Democrat approach of using the fossil fuel opportunity to fund diversification and the creation of millions of new jobs in renewables and associated technologies is so much better than the Republican drill, burn, don't invest and regret option.
Do you have more streaming service subscriptions then you did 4 years ago? Are you doing more online gambling then you did 4 years ago? Are you using an iPhone 16? If you answered yes to any (or all) of these questions that's because the economy has been on fire. This idea that Trump and the Republicans are good for the economy has always been insane.
And here's another one: immigration is not broken, "THE BORDER" (as Fox news would say) is fine. Neither are even a top 50 concern. We only talk about them when Trump is running for office. When Trump is gone (or reelected) watch how they never get mentioned again.
I just donated to the Harris Walz campaign, and to both Sen. Jon Tester's re-election campaign and Sen. Sherrod Brown's - and I hope others will, too.
Keep an eye on Texas. Obama lost by 16 (in 2012); Clinton lost by 9; Biden lost by 5.6. National Dems are not spending time or money in Texas. Harris will narrow the game some more. The closer she gets to a point or two, the more vulnerable Ted Cruz becomes.
The Electoral College allows minority rule; the Senate filibuster ensures minority rule. Dems need to fix the filibuster.
The Cruz outcome will be close. Why? Changing demographics. Texas will have a net loss of 350,000 "Whites" this election than 2020 (We see close to 90,000 more "white" Texans die every year than Hispanic Texans. Plus, we see more than 400,000 Texans turn 18 every year.
Older whites dying lean Republican; Young Hispanic voters lean Dem.
Think of this:
The GOP's candidate is a court adjudicated rapist. Ours is not.
The GOP's candidate is a court adjudicated conman and fraudster. Ours is not.
The GOP's candidate is a vile racists and xenophobe, having inappropriate relationships with known white nationalists and antisemites and spreading crazy lies about immigrants eating pets. Ours is none of that.
The GOP's candidate is an insurrectionist who attempted to overthrow our government on January 6, 2021 and speaks contemptuously of democracy on one hand and lovingly of homicidal dictators on the other. Ours is none of that.
The GOP's candidate is a creepy sexual predator who is on video sexualizing his own young daughter. Ours is none of that.
The GOP's candidate thought shoving a light bulb down one's throat or up one's ass may protect one from COVID. Ours went with science and the vaccine.
The GOP's candidate believes in more tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and massive tariff taxes for the rest of us. Ours believes that the ultra wealthy aren't paying their fair share and that the middle class deserves meaningful tax relief.
The GOP's candidate brags about how he ended Roe v. Wade and supports abortion bans in the states. Ours will protect women's rights to reproductive freedom.
Etc.
You get the point. Scream this out loud. Make sure others get the point. Any way you can. There is work to do here. MOCKERY IS OUR BEST WEAPON. MOCKERY WORKS. WE CAN'T LET UP!
P.S. - As for the bed wetting on the NYT poll, any poll in the year 2024 that shows the Dem POTUS candidate tied nationally but up by 4% in PA is so ridiculously flawed it should not have been released.
All fair points, but along with the light bulb suppository you forgot to mention the bleach injections. As for the polls - they are, collectively, good. And as you so rightly say, whatever the polls say all anyone can do is work for Harris/Walz and try to get them to outperform the polls through an efficient ground game. As I understand, the ground game and GOTV operations are in stark contrasts and the Democratic operation could win this election because it is so much better.
That list could have gone on forever. But yes, the bleach injections are a big miss on my part.
Is Orange skin a known side effect of using light-bulb suppositories? Asking for the National Enquirer and The Daily Mail.
You're just asking questions.
😂😂