More Encouraging Post-Debate Polls, National Voter Reg Day, New Hopium Endorsements In Senate and House Races

Hopium Winning The House Thursday This Week For Laura Gillen (NY-04) at 6pm ET

Happy Tuesday all. Got a few things for you today:

The Encouraging Polls Just Keep Coming - Vice President Harris had a modest polling lead heading into the debate. Many polls taken since last Tuesday’s debate suggest she has gained ground. It’s all very encouraging (all polls can be found on 538):

• Harris 51-43 (+8) Big Village (new this am, +4 pts from before debate)

• Harris 51-45 (+6) Morning Consult (new this am, +3 since last Monday)

• Harris 52-46 (+6) Ipsos/ABC

• Harris 49-44 (+5) Monmouth

• Harris 47-42 (+5) Ipsos/Reuters

• Harris 51-47 (+4) RMG

• Harris 50-46 (+4) Data For Progress

• Harris 49-45 (+4) Angus Reid

• Harris 49-45 (+4) YouGov/Yahoo

• Harris 49-45 (+4) YouGov/Times

• Harris 47-43 (+4) TIPP

• Harris 50-47 (+3) Leger

• Harris 48-45 (+3) SoCal

• Harris 44-42 (+2) R/W

Look at how remarkably consistent this data is. The average of these post-debate polls is a 4 point lead for the Vice President, 1-2 points more than where we were 10 days ago.

We have some encouraging new polls from the states this morning too. Note that VP Harris is now at our above Biden’s results in all 5 of these states:

Wisconsin - A new Marquette Law School poll has VP Harris up 52-48 (+4) with likely voters. In July Harris led by 1. Biden carried the state by 0.6% points in 2020.

Pennsylvania - A USA Today/Suffolk has VP Harris up in Pennsylvania 49-46 (+3). Biden carried the state by 0.7% points in 2020.

Maryland - In a new Emerson poll Harris leads Trump 65-33 (+32) and Angela Alsobrooks leads Hogan 49-42 (+7). Biden won the state by 32 points in 2020.

New Hampshire - A new St. Anselm’s College poll has VP Harris up 51-43 (+8). Biden carried the state by 7.5% points in 2020.

Iowa - A new Des Moines Register poll has Trump up 47-43 in this red state. He led Biden by 18 in their June poll. Trump carried the state by 8 points in 2020. This one is a big yikes for Trump and the GOP.

I will note there have also been some post-debate polls in the battleground from Republican-aligned polling firms like Insider Advantage, Quantas and Trafalgar. Here at Hopium we do not “toss them into the averages” given what happened with the fake red polling in 2022, we take them out and dismiss them. In recent weeks we’ve seen an uptick in the tempo of polling from what I am calling these “red wave pollsters” - American Greatness, co/efficient, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Trafalgar, Wick - whose sole purpose appears to be to produce polls in the states 2-4 points to the right of the public independent polls to make the election look more Republican and favorable to Trump. That we’ve seen soon so much of this polling since the debate - one of these polls now in each of AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI and 3 (!!!!) in NC - suggests the Rs are worried about what happened at the debate, and are now working furiously to stem the damage and ensure their strong man candidate doesn’t have to confront the reality that the election may be slipping away from him.

Three additional notes about this red wave polling. First, if you spend time on 538 you will notice that these pollsters never poll the same state at the same time, suggesting that the effort is coordinated. Second, like 2022, the focus of this red wave polling is in the states and not national polling. Given how little polling there is in the states it is much easier to “flood the zone” and move the polling averages. Given how much national polling there is it is much harder to move the national polling averages. So they don’t try.

Third, Simon, you ask, are you really saying that there is some pot of money out there for Republican pollsters who are willing to game the polling averages? There clearly was in 2022. Many of these same pollsters are back, doing literally the same thing they did last time. And friends we should not have any doubt that a movement which tried to overturn an American election in 2021, took tens of millions from the Russian government to advance pro-Russian narratives, bought Twitter to spread lies and invented stories about people eating dogs and cats is capable of a coordinated effort to game the polling averages. Here’s one of these firms on Twitter bragging about their poll tipping the 538 average in NC to Trump. The person they are responding to is a right-wing polling propagandist.

The bottom line on all this is the VP was in a stronger position than Trump before the debate. The polling since the debate suggests she has improved her position nationally and in the states. It remains a close, competitive election but we are gaining ground. As I wrote yesterday, with voter registration intensifying and early in person voting starting Friday, now is the time to donate, volunteer and engage voters when they are very open to hearing from us. The goal now is to win the election in the next few weeks by registering hundreds of thousands of new voters and driving the early vote (Voting on Day 1) so they cannot catch up in November. This period, right now, may be the most important stretch of the general election and we just have to go for it people!

The Harris-Walz campaign announced an escalation their own voter registration efforts today. Here is an excerpt from a new release:

“On National Voter Registration Day, Team Harris-Walz and the Democratic National Committee will launch a Youth Vote Week of Action to encourage young voters across the battlegrounds to register to vote. As part of the effort, the Harris-Walz campaign and the DNC will activate and organize on college campuses, including paid media and an aggressive campaign blitz across battleground states anchored by events with Governor Walz to ensure every eligible voter has a chance to make their voice heard by November 5.

This all-hands-on-deck mobilization will reach young voters where they are – online and in person, on campuses, and in their communities. The push includes:

• Governor Tim Walz kicking off the mobilization effort with events across the state of Georgia and a rally in North Carolina, and Gwen Walz in Nevada focusing on the importance of voter registration

• A surrogate blitz across college campuses in battleground states utilizing trusted messengers like celebrities and influencers participating in events engaging potential voters about the importance of voting and the issues they care about

• More than 130 events focused on registering young voters on campus and at basketball tournaments, football games, bracelet-making events, and more

• Targeted presence at Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) and Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSIs) to empower Black and Latino voters to exercise their right to vote, with visibility and kiosks across campuses urging college students to register to vote

• A takeover of the homepage of Revolt, in addition to other Black media specific engagement – reaching Black students and young voters where they are and encouraging them to make their voices heard

• The launch of the National Voter Assistance Textline to provide clear, easily accessible information in English and Spanish so that voters can access all the information they need to register and cast their vote for Democrats up and down the ballot, through the DNC’s IWillVote.com platform.

“The stakes this November couldn’t be higher, and Vice President Harris knows our democracy is stronger when we all vote,” said Harris-Walz Campaign Manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez. “We are focused on meeting young Americans where they are to drive home the stakes of this election on the issues they care most about – and that when we vote, we win.””

Let’s all start including links to I Will Vote for folks to register and check their registration. This promising moment is an opportunity. Let’s work together in these coming weeks to make it an ass-kicking reality.

Hopium Winning The House Thursday 6pm ET This Week - Due to the VP’s sit down with Oprah at 8pm ET this Thursday, our Hopium Winning The House Thursday will be at 6pm ET this week not 730pm. We now will be working for Laura Gillen, not Rudy Salas, so our calls will be a time when folks are more likely to be home. You can register here to postcard or call for Laura Gillen (NY-04) this Thursday at 6pm ET. Join us - these events are a lot of fun and we get a lot of work done. We usually get to hear from the candidate at the very beginning of our Thursday night gathering and I always do a 10 minute review of the latest polling and electoral data at the end. So you get to do good work, hang out with fellow optimists, and hear from Simon and the candidate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

New Hopium Endorsements In The Senate and House - Our community has already done so much. In 2023 we helped win elections in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. We kept working hard in 2024, helping win another election in Florida and NY-3, the Suozzi special election. This year we’ve focused our energy on three big projects:

• Electing Harris-Walz by supporting the ticket and working to win our “checkmate” states of Arizona, Nebraska (NE-2, the blue dot) and North Carolina

• Flipping the House by working to elect Democrats in the 11 mostly likely Republican held seats to flip. We’ve both been raising money for these critical races and launched a weekly Thursday night program to postcard and call into the districts.

• Keep the Senate by getting in early and supporting Ruben Gallego, an open seat candidate in a critical battleground state who started late (due to Sinema staying in longer than expected) and needed a boost.

Together we have now raised over $1m each for Harris-Walz, AZ/NE-2/NC and our Winning The House 11. Thank you all.

With new our new ticket and our new electoral landscape, after consulting with folks here in DC and listening to the recommendations of the Hopium community, today I am updating our 2024 targets by adding four more open seat and challenger races to our Winning The House list and the Tester and Sherrod Brown Senate races. I have also set new, ambitious goals for our existing candidates and states.

In the House we are adding the following candidates to our core 11:

• Amish Shah (AZ-01) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Derek Tran (CA-45) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Christina Bohannan (IA-01) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Janelle Stelson (PA-10) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

There are now three ways to support our 4 new candidates. Our one click donation now spreads your donation to all 15 of our House candidates. I’ve established a new link to give just to these four. And of course you can go to our Winning The House page and give directly to any one of our candidates.

All of our House candidates with the exception of Bohannan and Stelson are the 13 races rated most likely to flip red to blue in the Cook Report. We’ve added Bohannan and Stelson due to my discussions with folks here in DC, and their optimism about what we are seeing emerge in the new post-Kamala landscape for the House. They are stretch but doable races. I know some of you are advocating for other candidates and I will take one more look at everything in early October and make adjustments if warranted.

So here is our new, updated Hopium do more and worry less list, with a new fundraising goal date of November 1:

Harris-Walz For President - $1,048,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel. When we fight, we win!

Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two frontline state parties:

• North Carolina - $464,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $358,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $169,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

Winning The House - You can donate to all 15 here and donate just to the newly added 4 here. You watch interviews of our core 11, and make individual donations or volunteer for our intrepid joyful warriors here (I will be adding the new 4 over the next few days). Our goal is to raise $1.5m for these 15 candidates through all three ways of giving. Today, remarkably, we are already at $1.15m.

Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Tester and Sherrod Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego.

• Montana/Jon Tester - $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $357,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

I view the Tester race as a toss up and Sherrod Brown maintains a small lead. I know there is chatter out there that Tester trails. I don’t believe we have enough data to say that. The last two polls in the state were conducted by the Republican Party and Trump’s pollster. The one before that had Tester ahead. The Senate folks here in DC view this race as a toss up as will Hopium until there is data clearly showing something else, either way.

My general take on the Senate right now is that we are favored in every race expected Montana (an amazing achievement), and Montana is likely to stay close and be decided on Election Day. I am keeping an eye on the other possible Senate stretch races but for now I think adding Tester and Brown is an important additional step for our community, and one many of you have been advocating for over the last few months.

Here are ways you can do even more:

• Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in three states on September 20th - just 3 days away!

• Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.

• Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 110,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you! - Simon