Simon, thank you - a wonderful summary. The data and narrative are in Kamala's favour atm - if progress can be maintained for the next 7 weeks we should all be relieved and joyful on 5 November. Thank you and all in the Hopium community for all your efforts. I hope the probable interest rate cut will help build this momentum too. A final point re: JD Vance asking the 'left' to tone down the rhetoric. This from the man who described Trump as "America's Hitler". The hypocrisy is breathtaking.
Vance just went on a podcast and said he is going to have medicare and the military run in the upcoming administration by the Heritage Foundation! HELL NO!
Over 30 years ago, I had an argument with Geoff Hinton because he thought we should include all the data in a model because if we weighted them properly (he said “if God gave you the weights “) you get the best estimate. I said, I don’t know any deity that well, do you? I prefer tossing bad data.
Jon Tester needs our help, but not primarily our money – at least not for advertising. As of September 9th, an astonishing $ 280 per Montana voter has already been spent on ads for this Senate race, with $ 152 for Tester and $ 128 for Sheehy, making this by far the most expensive Senate race in American history.
For comparison, $ 43.50 per voter has been spent on the Ohio Senate race, with Republican ad spending outpacing Democratic spending $24.05 to $ 19.48.
Florida? That’s a paltry $ 1.16 per voter, with Democrats spending a mere 21 cents on Mucarsel-Powell’s ads, compared to 95 for Rick Scott. (I humbly suggest Hopium’s Senate effort be expanded to include our great Florida candidate!)
For a more complete analysis and additional data, please check out the article "Optimizing Your Senate Efforts" by Prof. Sam Wang.
Campaign money goes to things other than advertising, such as opening new local offices, room and board for staffers and volunteers, travel costs, legal retainers for FEC compliance and ballot challenges, internet for text/phone banks, etc.
I was clearing out some emails and ran across one from Swing Left San Gabriel Valley that talks about Tester's race:
Tester is fielding a serious ground game. His campaign has knocked on over 100,000 doors to date. That’s a lot in Montana, but a lot more neighborhoods remain to be canvassed. Tester also needs money for TV ads, which are especially important in a rural state like Montana, where lots of voters are hard to reach. The Republican candidate, Tim Sheehy, is a multi-millionaire, and the Republicans are pouring money into this race. They recognize that if they beat Tester, they can win back the Senate.
(They provided an ActBlue link to his campaign but I'd suggest using Simon's link).
....
Besides donating directly to Tester's campaign, Force Multiplier has identified four grassroots groups in Montana who are mobilizing infrequent youth, Indigenous + rural voters in partnership with America Votes. The groups are:
** Markers for Democracy is writing Postcards for WNV to spread the word about Voter registration events that they are sponsoring
......
Swing Left SGV also suggested making “deep canvassing” calls into Montana by phone banking with BigSky55+. You will be talking with older voters to get their votes for Tester. Training will be provided. Deep canvassing is both more fun and more effective than other types of persuasion.
Thanks for this info - i’m going for Force Multiplier in addition to Hopium. And what i’ve already given directly to Tester’s site. Montana is heart country for me.
The Nebraska Senate race with independent Dan Osborn running against R incumbent Deb Fisher caught my attention. Do you suppose there is a possible surprise here? I'm giving him some money.
He spoke at Markers to Democracy yesterday, and seems like a breath of fresh air for Nebraska, and he is doing a lot of work in the rural areas of the state. It also seems like Tony Vargas in NE2 is doing well, so that will help him too.
Just donated to Sens. Tester & Brown, already a monthly donor to the House races. Let's do this! Thanks so much for adding these folks to our roster.
Thanks also for sharing all the info about Repugs "gaming" the polling data. I have shared it in my groups and suggest strongly that others do the same. "Prebunking" - warning people in advance of disinfo/misinfo - has been been proven to be an important step in preventing the spread of election disinformation down the line.
The math on translating polls to results is daunting.
In a nation of 165 million voters, you have to change over 800,000 minds to move the needle 1 point. Or you can add 1.65 million voters to the pool and move the needle one point.
This is why reputable poll numbers don't move quickly. You're looking for a direction of travel, and in this case that direction is positive. So don't let anyone spin you. We are going in the right direction.
First, I want to say a HUGE thank you to Simon for helping us keep our spirits up, our hopes alive and our energy laser focused on our goals over these past months!
Second, the movement towards Kamala has been building strong and steadily since Biden’s endorsement, but since her debate performance it feels like it has found another gear -up another level of the virtuous cycle. No letting up now!! Pedal to medal until Election Day!!
Simon, we are working extremely hard in Northern Michigan to get the first woman ever, Callie Barr running for Congress in CD1 to get rid of Maga Representative Jack Bergman. Bergman is a "Carpetbagger" who lives in Louisiana but claims a house here but he's never there.
Callie Barr is EXCELLENT but she sure could use your help at every level so I hope you can check her out and help! Joanne Cromley, Chair of CCDP
Thank you Simon, this is all highly encouraging data! I have never been one to take polling at face value especially given the last several elections. That said, the consistency in the high quality data shown is promising and within the realm of reality at that, not wishful thinking. Patterns beget results and with this encouraging news plus the likelihood hundreds of thousands more WILL in fact register….whatever the margins are in Harris’ favor shown in all the various snapshot polling…I firmly believe they are larger on the ground. Speaking towards registration…the storyline that Taylor Swift’s endorsement didn’t move the needle as much as anticipated I fully believe is a manufactured one and will play out more as anticipated on the ground come Election Day.
So yes, this election could very well produce close electoral margins when all set and done and we should be prepared for that and not risk complacency or psyching ourselves out. However, the theory of the margins larger on the ground and perhaps (the silent Harris voter this time around) it is not out of the realm of possibility to foresee a significant electoral win God willing. We can not only win this thing but win it big.
Hi Blake, I think the Harris/Walz campaign approach of assuming we're just behind until polling day is shrewd. It avoids complacency and those who are anxious about a potential Trump victory will hopefully vote early and in overwhelming numbers. That said, it is looking OK.
I completely agree. Act like you’re always ten points behind. Then from there, the extra hard work, drive, and momentum kick in, leading to maximized results 🙏.
Teams that are ten points behind don't win. We are ahead now and it is always always always better to be ahead than behind. When Biden was 3 pts down he had to leave the race.
I agree. I guess my thought process was…it proves more productive in my view the campaign acts as the underdog, not taking anything for granted. 45 is not to be underestimated but I’ve always felt make that notion twice as much for Harris and from day one.
Hey Simon, what should we make of the Big Village Polling? It seems to move in concert with the reliable polls, if not forecasting the others by a week or two. I just do not have any context for their operation, funding or purpose. Do you have any insights?
The fact that you think it's a good use of our $$$ and time to increase the number of House candidates we're supporting is better for my spirits than all of the polling in the world!
Although this plus those recent poll numbers do give me an extra spring in my step--and a renewed determination to do more! (And worry less!!)
Markers for Democracy hosted Janelle Stelson a month or two ago and I was very impressed.
From her Ballotpedia page:
Stelson is running on her experience reporting on the district. Her campaign website says, "For nearly 40 years, I’ve been listening to and advocating for our communities as a TV news anchor and reporter. You have trusted me to shine a light on our issues, big and small. Now, with our basic rights and democracy under attack, I’m joining the fight. You deserve a Representative in Congress who will fight for your freedoms and work hard to make life more affordable for middle class families."
Stelson's website says she wants to restore Roe v. Wade abortion protections, lower costs, and ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks, serving more than six terms and becoming lobbyists after they retire.
She has great name recognition in her district which is in the viewing area of the local TV station where she worked. Plus as an added bonus, she is running in the district currently represented by Scott Perry who was in up to his eyeballs in the effort to overthrow the 2020 election. IIRC he introduced Jeffrey Clarke to Donald Trump.
National Voter Registration Day! Please share our pro-choice, comedic PSA aimed at registering young , male voters!
Hal’s Backyard Hustle on YouTube.
https://youtu.be/5HmiRu5ydq0?si=7RFCB37qXsLOLpYB
https://voterizer.org/
Simon, thank you - a wonderful summary. The data and narrative are in Kamala's favour atm - if progress can be maintained for the next 7 weeks we should all be relieved and joyful on 5 November. Thank you and all in the Hopium community for all your efforts. I hope the probable interest rate cut will help build this momentum too. A final point re: JD Vance asking the 'left' to tone down the rhetoric. This from the man who described Trump as "America's Hitler". The hypocrisy is breathtaking.
Vance just went on a podcast and said he is going to have medicare and the military run in the upcoming administration by the Heritage Foundation! HELL NO!
Over 30 years ago, I had an argument with Geoff Hinton because he thought we should include all the data in a model because if we weighted them properly (he said “if God gave you the weights “) you get the best estimate. I said, I don’t know any deity that well, do you? I prefer tossing bad data.
Thank you for adding Tester and Brown to your senate efforts.
Jon Tester needs our help, but not primarily our money – at least not for advertising. As of September 9th, an astonishing $ 280 per Montana voter has already been spent on ads for this Senate race, with $ 152 for Tester and $ 128 for Sheehy, making this by far the most expensive Senate race in American history.
For comparison, $ 43.50 per voter has been spent on the Ohio Senate race, with Republican ad spending outpacing Democratic spending $24.05 to $ 19.48.
Florida? That’s a paltry $ 1.16 per voter, with Democrats spending a mere 21 cents on Mucarsel-Powell’s ads, compared to 95 for Rick Scott. (I humbly suggest Hopium’s Senate effort be expanded to include our great Florida candidate!)
For a more complete analysis and additional data, please check out the article "Optimizing Your Senate Efforts" by Prof. Sam Wang.
https://election.princeton.edu/articles/optimizing-your-senate-efforts/
Campaign money goes to things other than advertising, such as opening new local offices, room and board for staffers and volunteers, travel costs, legal retainers for FEC compliance and ballot challenges, internet for text/phone banks, etc.
Every dollar helps!
I was clearing out some emails and ran across one from Swing Left San Gabriel Valley that talks about Tester's race:
Tester is fielding a serious ground game. His campaign has knocked on over 100,000 doors to date. That’s a lot in Montana, but a lot more neighborhoods remain to be canvassed. Tester also needs money for TV ads, which are especially important in a rural state like Montana, where lots of voters are hard to reach. The Republican candidate, Tim Sheehy, is a multi-millionaire, and the Republicans are pouring money into this race. They recognize that if they beat Tester, they can win back the Senate.
(They provided an ActBlue link to his campaign but I'd suggest using Simon's link).
....
Besides donating directly to Tester's campaign, Force Multiplier has identified four grassroots groups in Montana who are mobilizing infrequent youth, Indigenous + rural voters in partnership with America Votes. The groups are:
* Forward Montana
* Western Native Voice **
* Montana Rural Voters
* Montana Public Interest Research Group
Give to them here:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/forcemultiplier2024bluesurgemontana?
** Markers for Democracy is writing Postcards for WNV to spread the word about Voter registration events that they are sponsoring
......
Swing Left SGV also suggested making “deep canvassing” calls into Montana by phone banking with BigSky55+. You will be talking with older voters to get their votes for Tester. Training will be provided. Deep canvassing is both more fun and more effective than other types of persuasion.
You can sign up for BigSky55+’s phone bank here:
https://www.bigskyfiftyfive.org/volunteerphonebank
Great to hear of all these efforts, especially the door-knocking and deep-canvassing calls.
Thanks for this info - i’m going for Force Multiplier in addition to Hopium. And what i’ve already given directly to Tester’s site. Montana is heart country for me.
Thanks Cheryl for info regarding Force Mutiplier/ Montana.
I sent Debbie a donation last month. I think she can beat that thief Rick Scott!
So do I. And I also think Kamala Harris has a strong chance of winning Florida.
I gave to both Tester and Brown a few days ago. Guess I was getting out ahead a little.
Us too! Heather Cox Richardson lit our pants on fire. :-)
Likewise!
Thank you Simon. I along with millions will be glad when this is over.
Hi Simon and all,
The Nebraska Senate race with independent Dan Osborn running against R incumbent Deb Fisher caught my attention. Do you suppose there is a possible surprise here? I'm giving him some money.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4866382-nebraska-senate-race-threatened/
He spoke at Markers to Democracy yesterday, and seems like a breath of fresh air for Nebraska, and he is doing a lot of work in the rural areas of the state. It also seems like Tony Vargas in NE2 is doing well, so that will help him too.
Me too! 🤞🏻🤞🏻GOTV for NE!
Just donated to Sens. Tester & Brown, already a monthly donor to the House races. Let's do this! Thanks so much for adding these folks to our roster.
Thanks also for sharing all the info about Repugs "gaming" the polling data. I have shared it in my groups and suggest strongly that others do the same. "Prebunking" - warning people in advance of disinfo/misinfo - has been been proven to be an important step in preventing the spread of election disinformation down the line.
Support stealth candidate Katrina Christiansen, North Dakota, who has a real shot. https://www.katrinaforussenate.com/
just donated them too!
Simon, thank you so much for creating donation pages for Brown and Tester!
Positively GOOD NEWS, like sunshine on a Fall Day with all its beautiful colors
I just donated to the new house seats.
I think Sherrod has a really good shot of winning. When I knock doors for him in persuasion areas, I have a lot of positive feedback and support.
That is good news! Sherrod has a secret punch: His wife Connie Schultz and rescue dogs Franklin and Walter 😇
The math on translating polls to results is daunting.
In a nation of 165 million voters, you have to change over 800,000 minds to move the needle 1 point. Or you can add 1.65 million voters to the pool and move the needle one point.
This is why reputable poll numbers don't move quickly. You're looking for a direction of travel, and in this case that direction is positive. So don't let anyone spin you. We are going in the right direction.
First, I want to say a HUGE thank you to Simon for helping us keep our spirits up, our hopes alive and our energy laser focused on our goals over these past months!
Second, the movement towards Kamala has been building strong and steadily since Biden’s endorsement, but since her debate performance it feels like it has found another gear -up another level of the virtuous cycle. No letting up now!! Pedal to medal until Election Day!!
Pedal to the metal, absolutely!
Simon, we are working extremely hard in Northern Michigan to get the first woman ever, Callie Barr running for Congress in CD1 to get rid of Maga Representative Jack Bergman. Bergman is a "Carpetbagger" who lives in Louisiana but claims a house here but he's never there.
Callie Barr is EXCELLENT but she sure could use your help at every level so I hope you can check her out and help! Joanne Cromley, Chair of CCDP
Joanne, any polls for this House race?
Thank you Simon, this is all highly encouraging data! I have never been one to take polling at face value especially given the last several elections. That said, the consistency in the high quality data shown is promising and within the realm of reality at that, not wishful thinking. Patterns beget results and with this encouraging news plus the likelihood hundreds of thousands more WILL in fact register….whatever the margins are in Harris’ favor shown in all the various snapshot polling…I firmly believe they are larger on the ground. Speaking towards registration…the storyline that Taylor Swift’s endorsement didn’t move the needle as much as anticipated I fully believe is a manufactured one and will play out more as anticipated on the ground come Election Day.
So yes, this election could very well produce close electoral margins when all set and done and we should be prepared for that and not risk complacency or psyching ourselves out. However, the theory of the margins larger on the ground and perhaps (the silent Harris voter this time around) it is not out of the realm of possibility to foresee a significant electoral win God willing. We can not only win this thing but win it big.
Hi Blake, I think the Harris/Walz campaign approach of assuming we're just behind until polling day is shrewd. It avoids complacency and those who are anxious about a potential Trump victory will hopefully vote early and in overwhelming numbers. That said, it is looking OK.
I completely agree. Act like you’re always ten points behind. Then from there, the extra hard work, drive, and momentum kick in, leading to maximized results 🙏.
Teams that are ten points behind don't win. We are ahead now and it is always always always better to be ahead than behind. When Biden was 3 pts down he had to leave the race.
I agree. I guess my thought process was…it proves more productive in my view the campaign acts as the underdog, not taking anything for granted. 45 is not to be underestimated but I’ve always felt make that notion twice as much for Harris and from day one.
Hey Simon, what should we make of the Big Village Polling? It seems to move in concert with the reliable polls, if not forecasting the others by a week or two. I just do not have any context for their operation, funding or purpose. Do you have any insights?
Just donated to the Hopium New House Four!
Thanks so much, Simon!
The fact that you think it's a good use of our $$$ and time to increase the number of House candidates we're supporting is better for my spirits than all of the polling in the world!
Although this plus those recent poll numbers do give me an extra spring in my step--and a renewed determination to do more! (And worry less!!)
LFG!
Markers for Democracy hosted Janelle Stelson a month or two ago and I was very impressed.
From her Ballotpedia page:
Stelson is running on her experience reporting on the district. Her campaign website says, "For nearly 40 years, I’ve been listening to and advocating for our communities as a TV news anchor and reporter. You have trusted me to shine a light on our issues, big and small. Now, with our basic rights and democracy under attack, I’m joining the fight. You deserve a Representative in Congress who will fight for your freedoms and work hard to make life more affordable for middle class families."
Stelson's website says she wants to restore Roe v. Wade abortion protections, lower costs, and ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks, serving more than six terms and becoming lobbyists after they retire.
She has great name recognition in her district which is in the viewing area of the local TV station where she worked. Plus as an added bonus, she is running in the district currently represented by Scott Perry who was in up to his eyeballs in the effort to overthrow the 2020 election. IIRC he introduced Jeffrey Clarke to Donald Trump.