Early In-Person Voting Starts Friday, We Just Had A Very Good Week of Polling, The VP And Oprah This Thursday

Our Winning The House Thursday This Week Is For Laura Gillen (NY-4) at 6pm ET

Happy Monday all. This weekend we got three more encouraging polls. ABC News found the VP leading by 6 among likely voters, 52% to 46%. The respected Des Moines Register poll in Iowa poll found Harris only down 4, 47%-43%, in what has been a very red state. In its last poll from June Trump led by 18 points. The Financial Times found the Vice President now ahead of the other guy on the economy. This is a big deal (this graph has been updated since the original post this am):

Here are polls taken since the debate. The VP leads by an average of 4 points nationally. It’s been the best week of polling for the Vice President so far (all polls via 538):

• Harris 52-46 (+6) ABC News

• Harris 50-45 (+5) Morning Consult

• Harris 47-42 (+5) Ipsos

• Harris 51-47 (+4) RMG

• Harris 50-46 (+4) Data For Progress

• Harris 49-45 (+4) YouG/Yahoo

• Harris 49-45 (+4) YouG/Times

• Harris 47-43 (+4) TIPP

• Harris 50-47 (+3) Leger

• Harris 48-45 (+3) SoCal

• Harris 44-42 (+2) Redfield & Wilton

Yes Atlas Intel, a Brazilian firm, produced a poll with Trump leading this weekend but it is a clear outlier here friends. As I’ve been saying the data these last few weeks has been remarkably consistent with very few outliers. As I wrote on the day of debate we had also started to see encouraging battleground state data though I assume we will get more state data in the coming days. The bottom line - the election remains close and competitive. After winning the debate last week the VP has momentum now. We’ve gained ground. We have financial, organization/all of you and enthusiasm advantages which should make our close stronger. We are winning this election but have not won it yet. So we just need to keep our heads down and keep working hard all. As the VP says hard work is good work!

To go deeper on our very good week:

• Watch my new in-depth presentation on the 2024 election

• Tom Bonier and I joined the MeidasTouch team on Thursday for an extended sit down on the election

• The full new episode of Closing Strong is out. Tara had some great insights into the Vice President and the debate

• I sat down with Reed Galen for a terrific new episode of his podcast, The Home Front

• The Harris campaign released three new powerful ads flowing out of her strong debate performance. You can watch them here.

I want to spend some time this morning talking about how the election is about to change, and in ways that should be good for us. With early in-person voting starting this week the election is going to start entering a new and vital phase. The act of people voting is going to start making the election far more real to people at a time when we have an advantage. It’s why the work we do - the calls, the postcards, the texting, the door knocking and info warring - matters so much now. Our friend Tom Bonier has been writing about the surge we are seeing in voter registration. Look at the voter reg deadlines, below. We have at least another month of voter reg left in most states, and at least 3 weeks in all states. With Taylor Swift and our family already working it, the onset of voting itself is likely to intensify the pace of registrations. If we keep working hard, keep being noisy about the importance of registering and voting we could easily gain hundreds of thousands of new voters in the coming weeks.

The campaign released this clip of the VP meeting with UNC Charlotte students this week. We need to keep working it people!

It is important that everyone here at Hopium start making their own plans to vote early, vote on Day 1, and encourage everyone you’ve ever know to join you. As I’ve been talking about here, our goal should be to win this thing in October, in the early vote, and not on Election Day itself. What I am trying to get at here is that this week the whole country is going to start talking about voting, registering, the election itself itself. The debate helped focus all of us. The images of real people voting will further focus the American people. Once voting begins it will be easier to engage your networks in the election - volunteering, donating, registering to vote, voting early. Things are going to change this week for all of us, and we have to be aggressive. We have to work hard now, not in November, to channel this enormous enthusiasm and organization advantage we have into things that will make it more likely we win. Simply in this new age of early voting you don’t win elections on Election Day any more, you win them in the early vote - which begins this week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I call this process we are about to enter a “virtuous cycle of participation.” When folks see others voting they are more likely to vote. When they see other registering to vote they are more likely to register. When they see others volunteering and donating they are more likely to donate and volunteer. When campaigns get more money and volunteers they can reach more voters, raise more money and manage more volunteers - and a virtuous cycle kicks in. All this citizen led activity brings more of it. The campaign just keeps getting bigger, stronger, more effective - making to more likely we win. Which is why every action you take creates more action and activity. This dynamic becomes even more powerful when the campaign is generating good vibes and is something folks want to join - like it is now.

This week the Fed is almost certainly going to cut interest rates and make positive statements about putting this period of inflation behind us. It will give us another boost. As will the VP’s sit down with Oprah this Thursday at 8pm ET. You can sign up with the campaign to watch here. I want to note that this event is being produced by the campaign itself, another innovative step to help bring the VP and her optimistic, can-do message to the American people. It all feeds good vibes and positive energy into that virtuous cycle.

I am not going to spend time talking about them today. Every day they keep bringing the chaos, the ugliness, the extremism, the racism, the misogyny. It’s the same thing every day, just in different forms, and we have to learn how to not let them dictate our understandings and what is important to us. Learning how to start with us, every day, and not them, is a central part of the Hopium project and has been since the very first day. Mayor Pete agrees!

Finally, on all this hard work and good work. Is there any bigger middle finger we can give to Trump, MAGA and Putin than millions of proud patriots doing the work of democracy? For here in the Democratic Party of the United States of America, we fly our flags right side up not upside down.

Doing More, Lots More, And Worrying Less, Much Less - Friends, remarkably, we now over $1m raised for each of our three big projects - Harris-Walz, the checkmate states of Arizona, Nebraska (blue dot) and North Carolina, and the 11 House candidates most likely to turn red seats blue. I am really proud of these deeply strategic set of investments we’ve made this year. Thank you all for making this happen. We making a real difference, together.

Due to the VP’s sit down with Oprah at 8pm ET this Thursday, our Hopium Winning The House Thursday will be at 6pm ET this week not 730pm. We now will be working for Laura Gillen, not Rudy Salas, so our calls will be a time when folks are more likely to be home. You can register here to postcard or call for Laura Gillen (NY-04) this Thursday at 6pm ET.

Here are ways you can contribute, volunteer and win with the Hopium community today:

• Harris-Walz - $1,048,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel - When we fight, we win!!!!!!!!!

• Winning The House - $1,052,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Sign Up For Our Thursday Night Winning The House Calling and Postcarding Series. Watch our recent discussion with Leader Hakeem Jeffries. To go deeper watch one of our interviews with our great candidates - Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) Will Rollins (CA-41), Laura Gillen (NY-04), Rudy Salas (CA-22), Josh Riley (NY-19), Tony Vargas (NE-02), Adam Gray (CA-13), Sue Altman (NJ-07) and Mondaire Jones (NY-17).

• North Carolina - $461,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $357,000 raised, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $166,000 raised, $200,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb - and note for those who are focused on the Nebraska Senate race money into the NE Dem Party supports that race too.

Here are ways you can do even more:

• Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in three states on September 20th - just 4 days away!

• Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.

• Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 110,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you! - Simon