Good New Polling, Debating Trump Is No Easy Thing, Good Luck Vice President Harris!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm Going Live Tonight With Resolute Square at 845pm ET/Welcome New Subscribers!

Happy Tuesday all. It’s a big day today. I am confident we will see the Kamala Harris tonight we’ve been seeing these last few weeks - strong, confident, a proud patriot, a joyful warrior, focused on opportunity, freedom, and all of us. One thing we can all do today, before the debate, to show that we have her back is to donate to the campaign (here). I just did. $5, $10, whatever you can. Get others to join you. Let’s show the VP that while she is out fighting for us, we are fighting for her. Let’s be loud and proud today people, loud and proud!

Of course on the very first day after the very Republican heavy NYT poll showing the race where the aggregate polling has says it has been these last few - close and competitive, with us having a slight advantage. Here’s what Morning Consult published yesterday:

And in the key Senate races:

Five new polls released today also show a national popular vote consistent with this battleground data. Harris has a 4 pt lead among likely voters (LVs) in a new Big Village poll, a 3 pt lead among LVs in new NPR/Marist and Morning Consult polls, a 3 pt lead among registered voters (RVs) in new a 19th News/Survey Monkey poll and and a 2.4 pt lead in a new ActiVote poll (which has been running very Republican this cycle). A new VA poll has Harris up by 8, 51-43, and new battleground state polls by Redfield & Wilton have very similar data to the Morning Consult tracks (this passage has been updated since posting this morning. All polls can be found on 538)

We enter the debate Harris up 2.8 pts in the 538 average, Dems 2.6 pts in the Congressional Generic, in far better shape among Senate/Gov races in the battlegrounds and with meaningful financial, organization and intensity advantages. In the Morning Consult data note our strength in MI, PA, WI and then the battle for that next state to get us to 270. Getting to 270 is something we’ve been working on with our now more than $1m invested in our “checkmate strategy” of AZ, NC, NE-2.

Unlike 2022 the data of late has shown a remarkable harmony with very few outliers or contradictory results. Dozens of dozens of polls taken nationally and in the states are telling the same story - we enter tonight’s debate with a modest lead, and as you as you have heard me say, we also enter the home stretch with a far greater capacity to close strong and win.

Some of you have asked about Nate Silver’s data showing Trump favored. Here is what one of his former ABC News colleagues had to say about that:

Watching, Talking, Yelling, Chatting Tonight - I’ll be talking about the debate tonight live with my friends Stuart Stevens and Tara McGowan via Resolute Square at 845pm ET and then again afterwards at 1030pm ET. You can learn more and sign up for the live feed here. For Hopium paid subscribers I will be sending out a dedicated email tonight around 830pm to kick off a live chat like we did each night of the Dem Convention. If you are not yet a paid subscriber and want to come hang out with us tonight you can sign up here.

What else is there to say about tonight, and the election? I’ve been doing a lot of writing and talking these last few weeks so feel free to head to the Hopium site and cruise around. I remain deeply optimistic about our chances this November. Despite extraordinary and challenging circumstances, Vice President Harris and her campaign have been doing an incredible job. She has been inspiring, joyful, full of love of country, smart and connected. Governor Walz has been a breath of fresh air and I am not sure we’ve ever seen a candidate having more fun on the stump. We are for the people, they are for themselves. Early in person voting begins in 10 days and I do think if we do the work we can win it in October. I feel good, and love doing this work with all of you.

One thing I am thinking a lot about today is what I discuss below. The Vice President has to debate someone tonight who is unwell, untethered and who is far less frequently living in the same world we all do. We know she can handle Trump the rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon. Trump the extremist, bigot, xenophobe, misogynist. How she handles Trump the malevolent madman - who makes things up and is consistently trying to invent a new party and new party to run against because he cannot beat the one in front of him - is something that I’ll be watching closely tonight. For as someone who logged thousands of appearances on Fox News over almost two decades, I can tell you that when the crazy stuff comes out left field it sometimes can be jarring, for there are moments where you literally have no idea what they are talking about. I want to be clear that what Trump does is far more than lying - it’s invention, fabulism, madness - and that stuff ain’t easy to debate in a setting like tonight. We are not in a court room tonight. We will be spending time with Mad King Donald and that is never a good place to be.

Good luck tonight everyone. Expect to hear from me a lot in these next few days, and good luck Vice President Harris!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Worrying Less, Doing More - Here’s my post on the strategy behind our candidate and state party endorsements, including our Presidential battleground “check” and “checkmate” strategy. Sign up to call or postcard for Mondaire Jones (NY-17) at this week’s Winning The House Thursday. These events have been well-attended and fun - join us if you can!

Contribute, volunteer and win with the Hopium community today:

• Harris-Walz!!!!!! - $967 000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel - Let’s get to $1m people by the debate people!

• Winning The House - $1,022,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Sign Up For Our Thursday Night Winning The House Calling and Postcarding Series. Watch our recent discussion with Leader Hakeem Jeffries. To go deeper watch one of our interviews with our great candidates - Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) Will Rollins (CA-41), Laura Gillen (NY-04), Rudy Salas (CA-22), Josh Riley (NY-19), Tony Vargas (NE-02), Adam Gray (CA-13), Sue Altman (NJ-07) and Mondaire Jones (NY-17).

• North Carolina - $444,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $349,000 raised, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $161,000 raised, $200,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

Here are ways you can do even more:

• Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in three states on September 20th - just 11 days away!

• Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.

• Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subcription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 110,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon