In fairness this kind of dynamic has happened before. Obviously we shouldn't be comparing elections, so take this with a grain of salt BUT in 2020 Mark Kelly led Martha McSally by much wider margins in AZ than Biden did Trump. So this dynamic isn't exactly new. I think it's possible Gallego drags Harris over the finish line ( perhaps a reverse coattail effect ? ). Either way keep calm & campaign on!
From Robert Hubbell’s newsletter: “Silver currently works for a firm owned by Peter Thiel—the Republican megadonor and weird Elon Musk wannabe.” And I would add, Thiel is JD Vance’s main political patron and the one who introduced him to Trump.
Thank you, Fran, for taking the words from my mouth (or keyboard)! Petey-Boy Thiel has his moneyed tentacles deep into the political establishment now. I am convinced Nate Silver is bought and paid for. As for our favorite lover of padded furniture, I think that Trump chose him because Thiel said so and backed it up with funding.
I’m glad the Democrats have so many dedicated grass-roots donors. When a few wealthy people have outsized influence in politics - and it’s not a modern day phenomenon! - it becomes dangerous when anti-liberal ideologues like Thiel and Musk want to pour money into the game to take us back to 2024 BCE instead of 2024 AD.
Miles, I recall those days when Nate would show up on sports shows and talk numbers. I was both a sports fan and a numbers person back then. I made my living as an engineer who made mathematical models to predict how our products would work in actual field conditions. I bought Nate's old book. I threw the book in the dumpster in 2022. Any model of value is testable. And if it doesn't work, you adjust it. Nate doesn't allow either testing (it's a secret recipe) or adjustment when he's wrong (makes excuses for why he was "less" wrong than others). I had enough of that by 2022. I wouldn't accept that logic by a sports broadcaster and I don't from a political pundit. I miss 2007 Nate and hope he turns up again some day.
Of all the stupid things that go on in an election year, debates are by far the stupidest. They are a 19th century anachronism with no relevance in the 21st.
I feel certain 🍊👿 is already in contact with putin one way or another. Do people no longer understand the difference between Democracy or Dictatorship?
Have they not read the stories of innocent Ukrainians being in-prisoned and forced to sing the Russian national anthem while never sitting down for hours?
Globalization has been confused with governments.
I am in an music organization where at a home in Wellesley, one woman from Germany (an American now) announces and waxes poetic on Russia being such a beautiful country, like we REALLY should GO, with so much musical talent and so many orchestras, and such beautiful countrysides. I left her home concert thinking that she HAD to be a spy.
My friend laughed at me. It just behooved me to understand why she had such a stake in these repeated stories. Now, I believe she is a 🍊👿 an avoid political conversations with her. I mean classical music and 🍊👿 just doesn't blend for me (naive perhaps).
I have always hated the way the media responds to debates — looking for idiotic things like a candidate “coming up with” a zinger — almost always a pre-rehearsed zinger written by someone else. When Reagan responded to Mondale bringing up his age — something a lot of people, including many in the media, had been very concerned about because of his first debate performance— Reagan quipped “I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponents youth and inexperience”. The quip was prerehearsed but the media immediately decided he was the winner and that he taken care of concerns about his age. Unfortunately because Reagan’s mental state was so concerning during his second term that his staff seriously considered invoking the 25th amendment. Reagan’s official biographer also documented serious problems with his memory during the 2nd term.
I despised Nixon but I despised the media clearly preferring JFK because he looked better on TV. Our media would have counted Lincoln out based on his looks alone.
I seriously doubt that entertainment is what the public wants but it’s clearly what the mainstream”liberal” media wants. I will never forget how all three network anchors panned one of Clinton’s SOTU speeches — a speech I had really liked — as just a boring “laundry list” of policy proposals. When the overnight polls came in they showed that not only had viewers strongly approved of the speech but the audience grew as the speech continued. That same media later decided Bush was preferable because they thought he would be “more fun to have a beer with” —- something no voter ever told a pollster that is what they were looking for in a candidate. What they do say they care about are substantive issues like abortion, the economy etc.
The media projects its own shallowness on the rest of us.
It's not a debate. It's a performance. I'm confident that Harris knows that, and will speak to the camera, not to the questions and the claims and the counterpoints...
Today would be a good day for John Kelly to make a statement endorsing Kamala Harris, and explaining everything he saw that showed Trump's disrespect for those serving in our military and our intelligence services.
Any day would be a good day for all the generals in his administration and all the bushes and other mainstream Republicans to denounce Trump and endorse Harris.
It’s shameful. Bush started his presidency by swearing to protect the Constitution. He’s obligated to speak out now. Put down the paint brush for two minutes and pretend to be a leader again.
I guess he doesn’t care if future Bush generations grow up in an autocracy (including the girls and their lack of freedom) or if climate change makes the planet uninhabitable. He was always a puppet.
He is an anti-abortion zealot who supports SCOTUS justices of the type trump would appoint. It's not a difficult conclusion that he supports trump, but is ashamed to say so because his family hates the guy. He probably does too, but he gets the judges who will uphold Dobbs.
Well there you have it!! Thanks for sending the invite to the fundraiser Bush was involved in. This makes perfect sense now...it's always about the money!!
Sadly, Trump's sycophants and even those not paying attention yet will not care about John Kelly. Trump will call him a Rino and that will suffice for the press and his cult members. Logic is gone for too many voters.
All Kelly would have to do is preface his announcement with his previous statement about Donald Trump: "Donald Trump is the most flawed person I have ever known." And then say something simple like, "We can't let this flawed person have access to the nuclear codes ever again."
Tonight’s debate is primarily a contest for dominance, not just a debate on issues.
I am confident that Kamala Harris can win that contest – by repeating to Trump’s face that he is a felon, fraudster, a rapist and a traitor. Moreover, she can mock him by ignoring his attacks, smiling and laughing condescendingly, by referring to fact-checking (preferably live), and by repeating the mantras "That’s a lie", "Those are all lies", "Donald, you didn’t answer the question" – and "There you go again." Likewise, briefly underscore his incoherence.
In other words, brush him off before calmly presenting her great policies and winning messages.
If Kamala can make Donald lose his cool, so much the better.
Tonight, I hope we see the joyful prosecutor on America’s most important debate stage.
Rope a dope. Trump loses based on appearance and demeanor. The people who are "pursuable" are visceral.
In the spin room, ask about the state of Trump's make up and wig. How many times did Trump blink? Go to his mouth? Moderators should have an olfactometer.
Mr. Non Sequitur. The main issue is whether he couldn't or wouldn't respond to questions.
“Before we start, Donald, I want to thank your parole officer for allowing you to be here for tonight’s debate.”
“You know what is striking? The people who know Donald Trump best, those who served under him, are warning America against re-electing him!” (List those who refuse to vote for him.)
“Donald, that’s not true. The stock market has reached record heights under our leadership. Whereas the shares in your Truth Social are crashing and are soon close to worthless.”
“Sadly, you’re the only “businessman” I know who went bankrupt six times. It’s striking that not a single Fortune 100 CEO has endorsed you. Instead they are endorsing me and expressing trust in my policies.”
“159 leading historians have ranked you as the worst American president ever. Enough said.”
"Your slogan is "Make America Great Again". The truth is America is the envy of the world, America IS great – and for you to suggest otherwise is false and unpatriotic."
.
Perhaps Stephen Colbert has contributed some memorable and damning zingers.
If Trump paces like a predator behind her, like he did when Hillary was speaking, Kamala can quickly turn around and say: “Donald, if you need to go to the Boy’s Room, we would be happy to wait for you.”
EDIT: Harris-Walz has a taunting new ad up: "Size Matters". Perfect!
If you’re on social media, Scott Dworkin encourages using the hashtag #KamalaUnitesUS
“We just launched the hashtag #KamalaUnitesUS on multiple social media platforms. This will ensure that the debate conversation online will focus on the positives—like how Kamala’s campaign of infectious joy unites all of us. We’ll be reminding folks that Harris will work for every American, no matter who you are.”
I would like to see her start off every rebuttal with some variation of "Same old Trump..." The implicit framing of this debate is the fact that in the last one, one of the two candidates appeared too old to do the job and had to leave the race. Now the attention will be on how old Trump looks. It will be helpful to define him as the embodiment of old failed ideas from the last decade, if not the last century. Framing him as a threat to Democracy is less effective than framing him as a worn-out old relic of the past. Stale. Boring. Out of touch. Not an outsider anymore because he was President. Not an incumbent because he lost re-election. Just a tired and confused old man pushing 80 who's one Big Mac away from being another racist grandpa who moved to Florida to die on a golf course.
One more thing: never refer to him as President Trump or Former President. It’s Ex-president! That underscores that Donald is a bygone chapter of history. A loser.
I wonder why we are not seeing more polls out of Montana? It's the most crucial of all the senate races this year; I say that because I'm much more confident in winning in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Perhaps similarly with the much-overlooked Nebraska Senate race between Dan Osborn (Independent) and Deb Fischer (Republican incumbent); notice that’s missing from Simon’s list of "Senate numbers".
Ah, got it. No, it was the latest campaign from Blue Wave Postcards. It's over now as they do only one campaign at a time. Next up is Pennsylvania. I really like working with them. https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org
I know I sound like a broken record, but we still are registering more Democrats to drown MAGAts in a blue tsunami. Sent more than 12 million texts this cycle. Need phone banking and canvassing to close the deal.
The electorate is not set... yet. Millions of potential Harris voters are not registered ... yet. She trends 60% with women, the same with young people, 70% with tenants in the blue wall swing states. Now is the hour to expand our base significantly.
FT 6 calls primarily unregistered people who trend Democratic...mostly women. Usually don't have to do a lot of persuading.
They could use $$$ it helps pay for expensive texting and emailing campaigns in swing states. If you can’t volunteer send cold hard cash. Excellent robust organization!
I haven't decided whether I'll watch the debate yet, but irrespective of that, tonight I'll be writing postcards to help get out the vote in one of the swing states.
I’m postcarding for CA-13! I wanted to concentrate on my own backyard this time, because, while I live in the safest of sapphire blue districts, there are a LOT of swing districts in my blue state. And low turnout (because “Dobbs does not affect ME” no doubt) tanked some of the Democratic House candidate chances. Adam Gray, my “adopted” candidate, lost by only 500 votes! So! I got a brick from Postcards to Swing States and some adorable stickers from Etsy that say “Bee A Voter” and am plowing through them. I want Adam to win this time. Will Rollins, too. I’ve donated to his campaign. He has an excellent shot.
I know I am preaching to the perfect-pitch choir here, but even for those of us who live in CA or NY, our two biggest blue states where the Senate races are snoozefests (you know that Schiff and Gillibrand will be called winners in about an hour) there are still plenty of swing districts you can help with! CA and NY suffered in 2022 due to low turnout, but we shan’t do that in 2024! 🌊
It is really sad to see the race being so close considering the unfit candidate the Republicans have succumbed to advancing as their standard bearer. Gaining power can be so intoxicating, inhibiting morality and truth from finding the light of day.
They are thrilled by the delusion of gaining power. In reality, all they do is lose. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. He lost the House in 2018 and 2020. His hand-picked candidates caused the Republicans to lose the Senate in 2020 and 2022. Had they voted to impeach on Jan 6, today we might be talking realistically about Speaker Cheney. But that is another Universe, the road not taken.
Best thing Harris can do to rattle DT - step out as the most BEAUTIFUL, joyous woman in his world. Beautiful women unnerve him, joy enrages him. Then hit the ‘who i am and what i’ll do for you’ points for the watching voters.
Never have been so aware that the whole world is watching and judging We, the People. Trump has put American freedom to choose on the chopping block. Like Kamala, l know his type. One of my teachers advised us, in debate, to fire reality and truth straight to the back of the head. Ever have a fully correct black woman in your face after you cheated and lied? She’s not afraid of the truth. He is.
It's unfortunate VP Harris has to sit across from a convicted, insane, unfit criminal and legitimize his candidacy. Trump is unqualified in every way to hold any government position let alone President yet the nation has to pretend otherwise because of the cowardice, greed, and corruption of a party that won't remove him (this includes Cheney, Romney, and all the other former enablers). I hope the mysterious inexplicable "undecideds" get whatever they need tonight if they truly exist (which I doubt) and finally wake up to the existential threat Trump and the Republicans are. Best of luck VP Harris and I apologize on behalf of the nation that you have to go through this, thank you for doing it.
I do think the debate will be important in giving voters who didn't tune into the convention a chance to meet Kamala Harris. I believe she will be very prepared for this moment. I appreciated Simon's list of all the "other-worldly" things obsessing Trump now. I would add Jan. 6. AP had a strong article yesterday of how the Republicans have sought to normalize this, along with coverage of specific cases--one overseen by Tanya Chutkin. Unsurprisingly, there's huge disparity between the "tourist event" story and what these people actually did. It seems Trump does this thing with both the "Russia hoax" and Jan. 6, where he believes through the power of his repetitive lying, they will somehow go away.
Obviously all polls have their strange outlying data points, but just taking a cursory look through some of the recent ones suggests we are in great shape. Marist has us up 3 points with likely/definite voters when Trump is still taking 24% of the black vote, and the majority of the Hispanic vote, both of which seem...highly unlikely. In the recent Quinnipiac polls of GA and NC we are down 3 among Georgia likely voters when losing the 18-34 age group by a whopping 22 points which is also...not going to happen. Meanwhile in NC we are up 3 and Harris is getting 42% of the white vote. If we're anywhere higher than 35% of the white vote we're probably in good shape in NC (2020 exit polls 33%). No point dwelling on this too much and all of these polls will be strange and off in some way, but collectively it seems we should feel pretty good about where we are going into the debate, where we should gain more ground.
Fingers crossed for the VP! In the take-your-wins-where-you-can category, my grassroots group works hard in this red area to always get out more signs than the Republicans, as soon as our HOA allows it. I found out yesterday that Republicans are having to pay the Trump campaign $10/yard sign. We got ours free from the campaign and VA Dem Party. So fingers crossed we can put them to shame on the sign front. The Trump family motto is "Always Be Grifting."
Polls are not votes. They have been affected by partisanship as well as outdated methodology (I infer).
Possible explanation: Trump and Gallego are M, Harris and Lake are F.
In fairness this kind of dynamic has happened before. Obviously we shouldn't be comparing elections, so take this with a grain of salt BUT in 2020 Mark Kelly led Martha McSally by much wider margins in AZ than Biden did Trump. So this dynamic isn't exactly new. I think it's possible Gallego drags Harris over the finish line ( perhaps a reverse coattail effect ? ). Either way keep calm & campaign on!
Don’t sweat it
From Robert Hubbell’s newsletter: “Silver currently works for a firm owned by Peter Thiel—the Republican megadonor and weird Elon Musk wannabe.” And I would add, Thiel is JD Vance’s main political patron and the one who introduced him to Trump.
Thank you, Fran, for taking the words from my mouth (or keyboard)! Petey-Boy Thiel has his moneyed tentacles deep into the political establishment now. I am convinced Nate Silver is bought and paid for. As for our favorite lover of padded furniture, I think that Trump chose him because Thiel said so and backed it up with funding.
I’m glad the Democrats have so many dedicated grass-roots donors. When a few wealthy people have outsized influence in politics - and it’s not a modern day phenomenon! - it becomes dangerous when anti-liberal ideologues like Thiel and Musk want to pour money into the game to take us back to 2024 BCE instead of 2024 AD.
Campaign finance is a must. Money has corrupted the process in so many ways.
Miles, I recall those days when Nate would show up on sports shows and talk numbers. I was both a sports fan and a numbers person back then. I made my living as an engineer who made mathematical models to predict how our products would work in actual field conditions. I bought Nate's old book. I threw the book in the dumpster in 2022. Any model of value is testable. And if it doesn't work, you adjust it. Nate doesn't allow either testing (it's a secret recipe) or adjustment when he's wrong (makes excuses for why he was "less" wrong than others). I had enough of that by 2022. I wouldn't accept that logic by a sports broadcaster and I don't from a political pundit. I miss 2007 Nate and hope he turns up again some day.
I miss 2007 Nate and hope he turns up again some day.
⬆️
Highly unlikely. Once you lose your ethical North star it is unlikely that you ever find it again.
Of all the stupid things that go on in an election year, debates are by far the stupidest. They are a 19th century anachronism with no relevance in the 21st.
I feel certain 🍊👿 is already in contact with putin one way or another. Do people no longer understand the difference between Democracy or Dictatorship?
Have they not read the stories of innocent Ukrainians being in-prisoned and forced to sing the Russian national anthem while never sitting down for hours?
Globalization has been confused with governments.
I am in an music organization where at a home in Wellesley, one woman from Germany (an American now) announces and waxes poetic on Russia being such a beautiful country, like we REALLY should GO, with so much musical talent and so many orchestras, and such beautiful countrysides. I left her home concert thinking that she HAD to be a spy.
My friend laughed at me. It just behooved me to understand why she had such a stake in these repeated stories. Now, I believe she is a 🍊👿 an avoid political conversations with her. I mean classical music and 🍊👿 just doesn't blend for me (naive perhaps).
I have always hated the way the media responds to debates — looking for idiotic things like a candidate “coming up with” a zinger — almost always a pre-rehearsed zinger written by someone else. When Reagan responded to Mondale bringing up his age — something a lot of people, including many in the media, had been very concerned about because of his first debate performance— Reagan quipped “I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponents youth and inexperience”. The quip was prerehearsed but the media immediately decided he was the winner and that he taken care of concerns about his age. Unfortunately because Reagan’s mental state was so concerning during his second term that his staff seriously considered invoking the 25th amendment. Reagan’s official biographer also documented serious problems with his memory during the 2nd term.
I despised Nixon but I despised the media clearly preferring JFK because he looked better on TV. Our media would have counted Lincoln out based on his looks alone.
I would agree, but they have become entertainment more than substance. That's what people today want, entertainment.
I seriously doubt that entertainment is what the public wants but it’s clearly what the mainstream”liberal” media wants. I will never forget how all three network anchors panned one of Clinton’s SOTU speeches — a speech I had really liked — as just a boring “laundry list” of policy proposals. When the overnight polls came in they showed that not only had viewers strongly approved of the speech but the audience grew as the speech continued. That same media later decided Bush was preferable because they thought he would be “more fun to have a beer with” —- something no voter ever told a pollster that is what they were looking for in a candidate. What they do say they care about are substantive issues like abortion, the economy etc.
The media projects its own shallowness on the rest of us.
It's not a debate. It's a performance. I'm confident that Harris knows that, and will speak to the camera, not to the questions and the claims and the counterpoints...
Maybe. But maybe seeing that there is only one candidate who can speak in coherent sentences is relevant.
Today would be a good day for John Kelly to make a statement endorsing Kamala Harris, and explaining everything he saw that showed Trump's disrespect for those serving in our military and our intelligence services.
Any day would be a good day for all the generals in his administration and all the bushes and other mainstream Republicans to denounce Trump and endorse Harris.
Bush Jr’s statement was damning to Trump, but also damning to himself.
As president, Dubya had Dick Cheney act on his behalf.
As ex-president, perhaps Dick Cheney can be said to speak on his behalf.
Bush is still in with the Federalist Society's money (https://x.com/MsMalarkey24/status/1832553740471083230). I think that's a better explanation for why he's being so noncommittal.
It’s shameful. Bush started his presidency by swearing to protect the Constitution. He’s obligated to speak out now. Put down the paint brush for two minutes and pretend to be a leader again.
I guess he doesn’t care if future Bush generations grow up in an autocracy (including the girls and their lack of freedom) or if climate change makes the planet uninhabitable. He was always a puppet.
He is an anti-abortion zealot who supports SCOTUS justices of the type trump would appoint. It's not a difficult conclusion that he supports trump, but is ashamed to say so because his family hates the guy. He probably does too, but he gets the judges who will uphold Dobbs.
He nominated Alito, so clearly he doesn’t care
It’s a start…
“Ten former top US military officials back Harris, call Trump 'a danger“
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ten-former-top-us-military-officials-back-harris-call-trump-a-danger-2024-09-09/
Well there you have it!! Thanks for sending the invite to the fundraiser Bush was involved in. This makes perfect sense now...it's always about the money!!
Sadly, Trump's sycophants and even those not paying attention yet will not care about John Kelly. Trump will call him a Rino and that will suffice for the press and his cult members. Logic is gone for too many voters.
All Kelly would have to do is preface his announcement with his previous statement about Donald Trump: "Donald Trump is the most flawed person I have ever known." And then say something simple like, "We can't let this flawed person have access to the nuclear codes ever again."
Tonight’s debate is primarily a contest for dominance, not just a debate on issues.
I am confident that Kamala Harris can win that contest – by repeating to Trump’s face that he is a felon, fraudster, a rapist and a traitor. Moreover, she can mock him by ignoring his attacks, smiling and laughing condescendingly, by referring to fact-checking (preferably live), and by repeating the mantras "That’s a lie", "Those are all lies", "Donald, you didn’t answer the question" – and "There you go again." Likewise, briefly underscore his incoherence.
In other words, brush him off before calmly presenting her great policies and winning messages.
If Kamala can make Donald lose his cool, so much the better.
Tonight, I hope we see the joyful prosecutor on America’s most important debate stage.
Rope a dope. Trump loses based on appearance and demeanor. The people who are "pursuable" are visceral.
In the spin room, ask about the state of Trump's make up and wig. How many times did Trump blink? Go to his mouth? Moderators should have an olfactometer.
Mr. Non Sequitur. The main issue is whether he couldn't or wouldn't respond to questions.
SOME POSSIBLE KAMALA LINES:
“Before we start, Donald, I want to thank your parole officer for allowing you to be here for tonight’s debate.”
“You know what is striking? The people who know Donald Trump best, those who served under him, are warning America against re-electing him!” (List those who refuse to vote for him.)
“Donald, that’s not true. The stock market has reached record heights under our leadership. Whereas the shares in your Truth Social are crashing and are soon close to worthless.”
“Sadly, you’re the only “businessman” I know who went bankrupt six times. It’s striking that not a single Fortune 100 CEO has endorsed you. Instead they are endorsing me and expressing trust in my policies.”
“159 leading historians have ranked you as the worst American president ever. Enough said.”
"Your slogan is "Make America Great Again". The truth is America is the envy of the world, America IS great – and for you to suggest otherwise is false and unpatriotic."
.
Perhaps Stephen Colbert has contributed some memorable and damning zingers.
If Trump paces like a predator behind her, like he did when Hillary was speaking, Kamala can quickly turn around and say: “Donald, if you need to go to the Boy’s Room, we would be happy to wait for you.”
EDIT: Harris-Walz has a taunting new ad up: "Size Matters". Perfect!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlOC0tc7x88
As crowd size counters and Stormy Daniels underscore: Trump just doesn’t measure up.
Gestures are effective. Hand and arm raised fingers extended and joined. Stomp for effect. .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGJQPkfwlAc
If you’re on social media, Scott Dworkin encourages using the hashtag #KamalaUnitesUS
“We just launched the hashtag #KamalaUnitesUS on multiple social media platforms. This will ensure that the debate conversation online will focus on the positives—like how Kamala’s campaign of infectious joy unites all of us. We’ll be reminding folks that Harris will work for every American, no matter who you are.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/dworkin/p/our-plan-to-beat-pro-trump-debate?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
She's good and we need to do everything we can to help the Harris/Walz team win this for democracy and sanity.
I would like to see her start off every rebuttal with some variation of "Same old Trump..." The implicit framing of this debate is the fact that in the last one, one of the two candidates appeared too old to do the job and had to leave the race. Now the attention will be on how old Trump looks. It will be helpful to define him as the embodiment of old failed ideas from the last decade, if not the last century. Framing him as a threat to Democracy is less effective than framing him as a worn-out old relic of the past. Stale. Boring. Out of touch. Not an outsider anymore because he was President. Not an incumbent because he lost re-election. Just a tired and confused old man pushing 80 who's one Big Mac away from being another racist grandpa who moved to Florida to die on a golf course.
One more thing: never refer to him as President Trump or Former President. It’s Ex-president! That underscores that Donald is a bygone chapter of history. A loser.
I wonder why we are not seeing more polls out of Montana? It's the most crucial of all the senate races this year; I say that because I'm much more confident in winning in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Apparently Montana is difficult to poll.
Perhaps similarly with the much-overlooked Nebraska Senate race between Dan Osborn (Independent) and Deb Fischer (Republican incumbent); notice that’s missing from Simon’s list of "Senate numbers".
What makes it difficult to poll? No working phones? 🤔
I just wrote 200 postcards for Dan Osborn. Let’s go Blue!
Which campaign?
Osborn for the Senate against Republican Deb Fischer. https://osbornforsenate.com
So you volunteered through the campaign to write psotcards? I wasn't specific, but I meant which POSTCARD campaign not which race.
Ah, got it. No, it was the latest campaign from Blue Wave Postcards. It's over now as they do only one campaign at a time. Next up is Pennsylvania. I really like working with them. https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org
I think that was just a battleground state poll so it wouldn’t have included Montana or all of Nebraska as they’re not presidential battlegrounds.
True, and good point.
I have to believe her and her team have come up with some good, prepared one liners to skewer his outlandish, fantastical lies.
Laugh at his foolishness, take the wind out of his sails, and put him on the back foot. Then, she can get back to reality and answer real questions.
Perhaps she can search for every synonym for the word "weird" and use one in almost every sentence? Just a thought.
I know I sound like a broken record, but we still are registering more Democrats to drown MAGAts in a blue tsunami. Sent more than 12 million texts this cycle. Need phone banking and canvassing to close the deal.
The electorate is not set... yet. Millions of potential Harris voters are not registered ... yet. She trends 60% with women, the same with young people, 70% with tenants in the blue wall swing states. Now is the hour to expand our base significantly.
FT 6 calls primarily unregistered people who trend Democratic...mostly women. Usually don't have to do a lot of persuading.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops/volunteer
Daniel, you’re repeating a vital message that needs repeating. That’s not a broken record!
They could use $$$ it helps pay for expensive texting and emailing campaigns in swing states. If you can’t volunteer send cold hard cash. Excellent robust organization!
Thanks for the nudge — just donated to FT6.
donated!
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft62024
I just clicked on the link: So many states, so little time. Perhaps PA since I'm an East coast person (NY, MA).
I haven't decided whether I'll watch the debate yet, but irrespective of that, tonight I'll be writing postcards to help get out the vote in one of the swing states.
I’m postcarding for CA-13! I wanted to concentrate on my own backyard this time, because, while I live in the safest of sapphire blue districts, there are a LOT of swing districts in my blue state. And low turnout (because “Dobbs does not affect ME” no doubt) tanked some of the Democratic House candidate chances. Adam Gray, my “adopted” candidate, lost by only 500 votes! So! I got a brick from Postcards to Swing States and some adorable stickers from Etsy that say “Bee A Voter” and am plowing through them. I want Adam to win this time. Will Rollins, too. I’ve donated to his campaign. He has an excellent shot.
I know I am preaching to the perfect-pitch choir here, but even for those of us who live in CA or NY, our two biggest blue states where the Senate races are snoozefests (you know that Schiff and Gillibrand will be called winners in about an hour) there are still plenty of swing districts you can help with! CA and NY suffered in 2022 due to low turnout, but we shan’t do that in 2024! 🌊
It is really sad to see the race being so close considering the unfit candidate the Republicans have succumbed to advancing as their standard bearer. Gaining power can be so intoxicating, inhibiting morality and truth from finding the light of day.
They are thrilled by the delusion of gaining power. In reality, all they do is lose. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. He lost the House in 2018 and 2020. His hand-picked candidates caused the Republicans to lose the Senate in 2020 and 2022. Had they voted to impeach on Jan 6, today we might be talking realistically about Speaker Cheney. But that is another Universe, the road not taken.
Best thing Harris can do to rattle DT - step out as the most BEAUTIFUL, joyous woman in his world. Beautiful women unnerve him, joy enrages him. Then hit the ‘who i am and what i’ll do for you’ points for the watching voters.
Never have been so aware that the whole world is watching and judging We, the People. Trump has put American freedom to choose on the chopping block. Like Kamala, l know his type. One of my teachers advised us, in debate, to fire reality and truth straight to the back of the head. Ever have a fully correct black woman in your face after you cheated and lied? She’s not afraid of the truth. He is.
He has been in training; in his recent public appearances he seems more somber and sedate.
Reminds me of him sleeping in the courtroom. Head is down, get through tonight and launch the hate bombs all night tonight. Rampage rules!
I think his team has been pumping him full of Xanax or perhaps he's cut back on the Adderall.
It's unfortunate VP Harris has to sit across from a convicted, insane, unfit criminal and legitimize his candidacy. Trump is unqualified in every way to hold any government position let alone President yet the nation has to pretend otherwise because of the cowardice, greed, and corruption of a party that won't remove him (this includes Cheney, Romney, and all the other former enablers). I hope the mysterious inexplicable "undecideds" get whatever they need tonight if they truly exist (which I doubt) and finally wake up to the existential threat Trump and the Republicans are. Best of luck VP Harris and I apologize on behalf of the nation that you have to go through this, thank you for doing it.
Hi Simon, thanks for all your work for us! Do we have any of the data from Tom Bonier yet?
I do think the debate will be important in giving voters who didn't tune into the convention a chance to meet Kamala Harris. I believe she will be very prepared for this moment. I appreciated Simon's list of all the "other-worldly" things obsessing Trump now. I would add Jan. 6. AP had a strong article yesterday of how the Republicans have sought to normalize this, along with coverage of specific cases--one overseen by Tanya Chutkin. Unsurprisingly, there's huge disparity between the "tourist event" story and what these people actually did. It seems Trump does this thing with both the "Russia hoax" and Jan. 6, where he believes through the power of his repetitive lying, they will somehow go away.
Obviously all polls have their strange outlying data points, but just taking a cursory look through some of the recent ones suggests we are in great shape. Marist has us up 3 points with likely/definite voters when Trump is still taking 24% of the black vote, and the majority of the Hispanic vote, both of which seem...highly unlikely. In the recent Quinnipiac polls of GA and NC we are down 3 among Georgia likely voters when losing the 18-34 age group by a whopping 22 points which is also...not going to happen. Meanwhile in NC we are up 3 and Harris is getting 42% of the white vote. If we're anywhere higher than 35% of the white vote we're probably in good shape in NC (2020 exit polls 33%). No point dwelling on this too much and all of these polls will be strange and off in some way, but collectively it seems we should feel pretty good about where we are going into the debate, where we should gain more ground.
Fingers crossed for the VP! In the take-your-wins-where-you-can category, my grassroots group works hard in this red area to always get out more signs than the Republicans, as soon as our HOA allows it. I found out yesterday that Republicans are having to pay the Trump campaign $10/yard sign. We got ours free from the campaign and VA Dem Party. So fingers crossed we can put them to shame on the sign front. The Trump family motto is "Always Be Grifting."