I am taking this post down for 1) Harris has done a major network interview 2) JD Vance humilited himself this weekend and hurt the ticket. He was not a "star" nor is VP Harris lame. She is killing it. Do better next time. Thank you.
Thanks for removing a post which i never saw but from what you and David have stated, needed to be removed. I have seen a post on HCR's Letters from an American that was a clear outlier and made me almost think it was an attempt by Russian or MAGA proponents to infiltrate us.
I'm glad you picked up on it as well. And i'm really glad Simon is alert as moderator. The reports of increasing Russian infiltration and influence through MAGA proponents is making me look at everything twice.
I really appreciate your thoughtful and firm moderation of the comments, Simon. I have to chuckle at how often the very first post is out of line or trolling and thus removed.
also, the amount of people stopping me this weekend excited by my Harris Walz camo hat... well, it went from 0 a few days before to people crossing the street to say "I LOVE YOUR HAT!"
To which I replied: "ARE YOU READY AND REGISTERED TO VOTE?" (That being said, I believe that the vote here was 96% Biden and Clinton, but I'm glad people are feeling good and excited!)
Oh yes. I think the only reference to the racist, hating other guys here today was in the polling stuff - otherwise ignored during their boring final season.
A great way for those outside PA to help is to sign up for a ballot curing phonebank.Voters truly appreciate these calls notifying them of an issue with their ballot.📲🗳️
Unfortunately (and inexplicably to me) it seems to vary by county. Here is Bucks county estimate (they don't even publish an exact date): https://www.buckscounty.gov/1225/Vote-by-Mail
On a side note, I’ve been driving through western and northern Wisconsin a lot. These are ruby red rural districts. Compared to previous years, I’m seeing fewer Trump signs and flags than 2020 (and way fewer than 2016) and a huge increase of Harris signs (many home made) compared to previous elections. This is especially true in small towns.
I know signs don’t vote, but it is an indicator of voter enthusiasm. My take is the strategy of losing by less in rural areas is working and we’re doing the work to have the election we want.
I just drove to and from Cable, WI from the Twin Cities and was surprised to see so few Trump signs along the way. Four years ago, they were everywhere. Not this year. And I wore my Cat Ladies for Kamala shirt and received lots of smiles in town. Woot! (Wearing the shirt at home is a little boring- everybody smiles, even my Trumper and Libertarian neighbors. They know they are badly outnumbered here!) Fingers crossed WI joins the blue column again!
Obviously, yard signs are a particularly unreliable metric. Many strong Biden '20 voters didn't put up a sign because 1) they just were less likely to be "that sort of person," 2) they lived in a blue area and thought it would be redundant, or 3) lived in a red area and were concerned about some sort of hate.
So while a greater proportion of Harris signs doesn't mean there are actually any new blue votes in the area, it actually still signals a key change: Dems are more and more increasingly likely to say "Screw it, I'm loud and proud too!" This does wonders for breaking the authoritarian spell. It is akin to when someone finally tells off the school bully and all of a sudden everybody begins proclaiming how they ae sick of the bully too, and suddenly it is impossible for the bully to go on pretending silence is support. Plus, the kid who told them off tends to become the new hero.
I already know my plan: Here in Washington state, we'll be getting our ballots on October 18. As soon as I clock off work that day, I'm going straight to the mailbox, filling out my ballot, and walking it to the downtown library drop box less than two miles from where I live. Then I'm going to go celebrate with a nice dinner and then encourage everyone else to vote!
I don't know exactly when I'll get my ballot. But I have basically the same plan. City Hall has a dropbox a 5 minute walk from home. Once I drop it in, I can verify online that my vote was accepted. Usually that takes a day or two.
October 8 is start of early voting in Ohio. I am getting two people in my social circle registered for the first time to vote, after having had some good conversations with them both. Every little bit counts, even for time and money strapped people like me :)
for some more positive news on the election. Bill Mahr finally said on Friday that trump is finished.
also, chris bouzy an american technology entrepreneur who is into twitter analytics gave his latest election forecast yesterday. hope springs eternal. he said harris is going to win big taking all the battleground states plus north carolina, georgia if the election rules go back to normal and florida. he said harris will get at least 349 electoral votes and trump will be under 200. he has a following based on the responses he got on his forecast yesterday
He also predicted a 50/50 senate. according to him we will lose west virginia because manchin is retiring and montana but gain florida for a senate seat
I went over to spoutible.com and decided to join. I couldn’t locate the data that Chris Bouzy uses to support his analysis although I will go back and look some more. If the enthusiasm gap and abortion rights successes in the most recent elections are the key then I can see a predictive landslide is well with the realm of possibility. While on the site I did my own post advertising Hopium Chronicles in the hopes that it my generate a few recruits. Cheers
I really don’t want to lose Montana. Jon Tester’s campaign sent me a postcard that he needs volunteers. I am in PA. Sign up on his website if you have time. Having a Democratic Senator in a deep red place gives me hope for our country
Tester is a three-term incumbent running against an opponent with no political experience. It would not be shrewd to bet against him no matter what any polls may or may not say. If the working theory is that Brown can run up numbers through ticket splitting as a result of twenty years of statewide name recognition, then it is patently inconsistent and illogical to not believe that Tester could do the same, especially in a small state, where name recognition goes even farther.
To be blunt, he's basing all his calls on his own personal hunches and nothing more. Sure, his hunches have numbers he attached to them, and he's theoretically a dude that's good with numbers, so for some people that gives the veneer of "very smart and knows what he's talking about." But his analysis is about as sound as any other random person who open a newspaper and use a spreadsheet.
Thank you. I try to stay focused here but sometimes, I get curious. I don't want to follow Bouzy but I see that a lot of people re-tweet him. I was curious why he is saying this as there is very little information out there about Tester's race.
You just answered your own question. It's BECAUSE there is little information. It's much easier to make a questionable call if there is less info to contest it, and much more tempting for people who are hungry for that info to get distracted by it.
People here need to keep basics in mind. A three-term incumbent (and prior state state legislative leader) losing to a political novice is something so unlikely it happens once every couple *decades.* Long-term incumbents are hard to beat. We couldn't knock off Collins in Maine in 2020 despite running the leader of the state legislature against her (who was leading all the polls) in a state Biden won by 10%. The Repubs couldn't get rid of Manchin in '18 despite W.Virginia's far right turn. Etc etc etc.
I think we all do try to keep basics mind. I also don't believe in the work like we are 10 points down. I am more motivated by good news. Worry is not preparation is my motto. That is why I don't follow Bouzy. Nothing against him. I don't even go to 538 (that often 😬). I want to get a handle on the reliable vs non reliable pollsters. I have an idea i.e. Patriot, Trafalgar = don't even bother looking at them. I have to tell you, after the debate, in my circles, I am seeing people far more energized.
I agree with you. I find good news more motivating. Fear and anger are powerful, but enthusiasm and joy are just as powerful and one route is more enjoyable to go down haha.
I think with pollsters nowadays, "reliable" is a less apt descriptor than "respectable." All of them are liable to be a bit off, but as long as their methods are transparent and reasonable, then they can be useful to look at, as long as skepticism and perspective is kept.
I was following Chris Bouzy around the 2022 election along with Simon and Tom Bonier. He, also, did not see a red wave I remember. I am in MT and still see MT (Tester) as a toss-up, BTW.
Yeah... I really wouldn't listen to CBouzy. He seems like a wholesome guy, but he has no political experience or acumen whatsoever. The fact he has people following him means nothing (how many people follow Musk-rat?) The Harris campaign is not even seriously contesting Florida, which hasn't elected a Democrat to a major statewide office in five election cycles. Think of the chart that Simon showed us the other day about where the DSCC money was going. Hint: it's going to Montana, Ohio, Arizona, etc., because that is where Chuck Schumer and team have decided we have the best chance, and they know a helluva lot more about this line of work that any armchair prognosticator.
Thank you!!! I did read most of the newsletter that day but I was in a hurry and forgot to go back and finish reading it. Yes, I don't think they would be spending money there if it was a lost cause. Thank you again!!
No problem! I liked looking at it again too. I thought it was interesting that the Ds aren't really spending anything in TX, yet the Rs are. That clearly signals that while it's not competitive this year, the Rs know there is some weakness and need to fight it off. On the flipside, the national Ds have spent next to nothing in their safe-but-open seat in MD, which shows they aren't viewing it as in any real question despite the ballyhoo.
My family and friends and I just wrote 300 postcards to voters in the great state of Arizona at our pizza party over the weekend. (We live in Washington state.) Let's put AZ in the blue column! My father RIP lived in Arizona after he retired from teaching. Grew up in the red state of Wyoming and a Republican all his life. If he was in AZ today, I am pretty darn confident he'd vote BLUE. "Why would I vote for that knuckleheaded jackass?" I can hear him say. "He's way out of line." He respected people of all persuasions. He didn't get into other people's business. Was for women's reproductive rights. He knew where the line was.
We had a successful weekend in Virginia - the energy is HUGE - and the turnout for canvass launches, events, postcarding - is just off the chains! Keep it rolling - and join us Friday September 20 at the polls - check out the map - to join an event or add yours - from PA to NY to VA and beyond - put your event on the map! YAH! Check out our awesome website curated by Denis Orsinger: https://www.virginiagrassroots.org/election-vote-early.php
I'm doing a presentation on voting at the univ. where I'm on faculty and the NJ sec. of state is holding another annual Ballot Bowl, which she initiated in 2017 - it's a statewide voter reg. competition amongst college students. NJ Votes! We are all kicking a$$!
My family and friends and I just wrote 300 postcards to voters in the great state of Arizona and our pizza party over the weekend. Let's put AZ in the blue column! My father RIP lived in Arizona after he retired from teaching. Grew up in the red state of Wyoming and a republican all his life. If he was in AZ today, I am pretty darn confident he'd vote BLUE. "Why would I vote for that knuckleheaded jackass?" I can hear him say. "He's way out of line." He respected people of all persuasions. He didn't get into other people's business. Was for women's reproductive rights. He knew where the line was.
I just got back from the grocery store here in Portland, OR. An older guy was shopping wearing his "Mind your own damn business" T-shirt. I complemented him on his good taste.
So curious about your take on the « assassination attempt » yesterday, Simon! Today of course, news coverage is wall to wall on that, so the debate fail and eating pets are gone…kind of convenient, no? So weird.
Excited about the new polls…keeping my head down. Was in Kenosha, WI on Sat and talked w a felon who is now « off papers » and can register to vote! Love when I find these folks and help them get registered!
Just finished more postcards last night and still have about 75 Postcards to Swing States to get written…will get my husband to help as we approach the deadline!!!
If you’re doing Post Cards to Swing States (as I am) the instructions are not to mail them until Oct. 15. Mine are going to Ohio but the last day Ohioans can register to vote is Oct. 7. I’m thinking sending postcards after the 7th isn’t the best idea. So I plan to mail mine in about a week.
Judy, it's worth watching their video on why they chose the dates they did. These postcards all go to registered voters, for one thing. It's on their facebook page.
Judy, please do not mail early. In 2021, I participated in 4 different experiments about when to mail letters/postcards run by Vote Forward and Swing Left. They wanted to see if early or later dates were more effective to improve turnout, and how many letters a person should receive. The dates of mailing, and number of contacts are all supported by good data for maximal impact. I appreciate your enthusiasm, but please, stick to the instructions.
David, I generally agree! However, I'm wondering about recent concerns that have emerged about delays with the post office...possibly being engineered by DeJoy, evil Postmaster General...what do you think about whether this should or should not affect mailing dates???
I remember a lot of the same worries and concerns regarding Vote Forward's Big Send for the 2020 election. The 15 million letters sent in one day is a TINY fraction of the daily letter handling capacity of the USPS and the experiments that I participated in showed no delay in delivery. Vote Forward actually ran a test mailing sample to test the capability of the USPS for the 2020 election under DeJoy's regime.
As Cheryl Johnson noted in her response to you, there are lots of different campaigns targeting different groups of voters. Each group has its own characteristics and targets. There has been a whole ton of good quality research on direct mail to people and how to maximize efectiveness. Not just in politics, but also in marketing for household goods and services. Keep up your excellent writing and stick to the mailing instructions, We will WIN!
Thank you David. Mine go out Oct 11. I’m sticking to the script and the date they’re giving us. I think their website said any post office delays are already factored into the mailing date.
I mean, if Louis DeJoy is an evil henchman, he's a massively bumbling and incompetent one. If he was trying to throw the election for his old boss, and couldn't manage to do it in the middle of a pandemic when said boss was still stinking up the White House... what makes you think he could pull off such a devious scheme this time? Never ascribe malice where incompetence is more plausible.
In short... mail the postcards when the instructions say to! The people who came up with this operation have thought through all of this, and we need to respect that.
Judy, I agree with Ellen and David. When to mail postcards depends on the audience and the objective.
I mailed my Reclaim the Vote Postcards today (recommended mail date range 9/15 to 9/30) because these voters may have been purged from the voter rolls and the last day to register in NC is October 11 if you want to vote by mail or on Nov 5. (Voters can also register to vote during the early voting period 10/17 - Nov 2). But the key point is that there is a call to action that can be executed NOW. Postcards to encourage people to apply for a Mail-in ballot also have early mail dates for the same reason.
Simon's vote on Day 1 postcard campaigns are going to Prime (i.e., very consistent) voters and have mail dates that are about 1 week before the earliest date that the recipient can vote.
The Postcards to Swing States are going to registered voters who they believe are progressive, but don't always vote. IIRC they refer to these voters as "Surge Voters" and these voters do NOT tend to vote early, so mailing your postcards too soon dramatically reduces their efficacy!
I'm sure you have good intentions, but please do NOT assume you know more than the experts who have set the mail dates.
Interesting. I finished a few batches of cards from Swing States. One batch said to mail them October 11th and rest said to mail them October 15th. Even though a day or two might not matter much, I am going to do exactly as the letter(s) states. 💙
😂😂 I am SO going to do EXACTLY what the letter instructed. Initially, a friend was writing the cards with me. We were so, well, I won't say. We actually got a ruler to measure where to put the label and exactly where to start writing the message based on the sample given in the instructions. After more time than I want to admit, we both laughed and just started sticking the labels on and then writing the message. Well, to be honest, first we put stamps on several cards, then the label, then the message. 😂😂😂
Judy: Instructions for postcards to Swing States vary depending on which particular messages are going to which particular states. Mine are going to GA and are not supposed to be mailed until Oct. 26th. They really don't want folks choosing when to mail them...but with concerns re post office delays mounting, I MIGHT mail mine a little early.
Sometimes, they have different sets of postcards going out to the same folks w different messages and with different mail dates. It's best not to mess too much with the dates they give.
You are probably sending cards to people who are already registered voters in Ohio in any case.
Postcards to Swing States specifies that they have already accounted for possible mail delays in their chosen mail-by dates. Better to trust them and mail on the date assigned. Are you sure yours are asking people to register to vote? Mine are asking Ohioans to have a plan to vote on Nov 5.
Freda, there are lots of different messages going to different types/groups of voters in different States. Some groups of voters have been identified as strictly Election Day voters. The data collection has been very robust in the last decade!
Exactly! My Ohio ones were for voting on the day. On the other hand, some of my Blue Wave batches were headed for GA for absentee, and needed to be mailed within 2 wks of being received. Reaching voters has become so much more data-driven, detailed and accurate. And effective.
Just a quick point to add to Simon's take on the recent polls. I spent 5 minutes yesterday on 538 looking at the most recent polls they had in their average. The simple average was a lead of 4% while the 538 result was a lead of 2.6%. I know they have "adjustments", and these 25 data points included the outlier polls from AtlasIntel, but more than a full point lower in the average? To further the point, while almost all the polls show the VP growing her lead after the debate, the 538 average actually got tighter.
I say all of this as a reminder that there is a lot of junk out there that we just need to ignore and instead keep doing the work! I am excited to do my part over the next 7 weeks and I know you all are too. Keep up the good work everyone!
Besides reminding the public that Trump hates dogs and stole from kids with cancer, the public needs to decide whether it would have been OK to hang Mike Pence, beat up 145 cops, shit on Nancy Pelosi's desk, on Jan 6, etc.
None of the polls I've seen address these issues.......
I asked our data group to test known MAGAs....
Anecdotally it works. https://rvat.org/ Makes them cry in their beer.
Understanding this election is not about polling questions. We have the new analyses by Simon and Tom Bonier that consider many other factors such as the effect of the Dobbs decision, new voter registration (especially younger voters), the dramatically higher amount of grassroot funding and campaigning effort that we Democrats have, the effect of young online content creators, and all the other indicators of intensity that are pointing to wins at the top and down ballot.
Any thoughts on the effect the assault weapon gun nut present on trump's golf course, while the grifter was playing (doesn't he spend more time on the golf course than anyplace else?), will have, if any? Ironic that the biggest threat to trump has come from assault weapons, and it's his party that is responsible for their proliferation. We still don't know what happened at the shooting at the rally, that resulted in the picture of trump with a raised fist. He certainly wasn't shot in the ear. It would not heal in one to two days, if ever, considering the anatomy of the ear and how poorly it can heal with a significant wound. Why has no impartial and competent medical report on that shooting been made public, which has always been done in such situations? trump, of course, would do anything -- literally anything -- to get elected.
Yawn. Another assassination attempt. Borring. Possible sex scandal with a 9/11 Truther. Who cares? Writes in all caps that he hates Taylor. Ho hum. America is just not into Donald any more. Mayor Pete said it better, but I'm just so over any more coverage of that guy.
Probably not a good idea to blow off discussions of events and issues that might affect the race. Most of us can carry on such discussions AND work to elect Kamala and other Dems in November. Shying away from discussion can mean getting blind-sided and missing opportunities to effectively and proactively counter messaging coming from the MAGA cult.
David I liked your post and I agree... to a point. It's just that some of us are wary of what might be attempts to distract us from the work at hand, and send us down debate/discussion rabbit holes. There are infiltrators in abundance trying to knock us off course, here and on ALL social media. There are some AMAZING folks on Team Hopium too. But as Lucy said in the Peanuts strip, "It's getting so you can't tell the phonies from the realies!"
Okay... all done with 50 postcards for Nebraska Blue Dot, now starting 50 for Arizona. Go Team Hopium GO GO GO we GOT this 🥥🌴💪
"Probably not a good idea to blow off discussions of events and issues that might affect the race."
No offense, but you have ironically just perfectly encapsulated the line of thinking that Democrats have used since time immemorial to shoot themselves in both feet and then the face. Any array of events and issues MIGHT affect the race, and yes you absolutely should blow off every last one that provides any hint of distraction to the main message. The way to win is to decide that WE DECIDE what affects the race. The Harris campaign is winning right now because - in an era of info overload - they have refused to give in to talking about anything other than their core message. Focus, focus, focus, focus.
I am taking this post down for 1) Harris has done a major network interview 2) JD Vance humilited himself this weekend and hurt the ticket. He was not a "star" nor is VP Harris lame. She is killing it. Do better next time. Thank you.
Thank you for removing that angry post, Simon. I trust the campaign's press strategy.
Harris/Walz are getting superior press coverage at their local events in the red areas of the swing states: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/13/tim-walz-visits-a-ukrainian-bakery-rallies-volunteers-in-wausau/75160900007/
Thanks for removing a post which i never saw but from what you and David have stated, needed to be removed. I have seen a post on HCR's Letters from an American that was a clear outlier and made me almost think it was an attempt by Russian or MAGA proponents to infiltrate us.
I saw that too. I thought Russian trolls.
I'm glad you picked up on it as well. And i'm really glad Simon is alert as moderator. The reports of increasing Russian infiltration and influence through MAGA proponents is making me look at everything twice.
I really appreciate your thoughtful and firm moderation of the comments, Simon. I have to chuckle at how often the very first post is out of line or trolling and thus removed.
I have noticed that as well - except I am always much later and don't see the post.
Good juju!
I am going to VOTE SO HARD soon!
also, the amount of people stopping me this weekend excited by my Harris Walz camo hat... well, it went from 0 a few days before to people crossing the street to say "I LOVE YOUR HAT!"
To which I replied: "ARE YOU READY AND REGISTERED TO VOTE?" (That being said, I believe that the vote here was 96% Biden and Clinton, but I'm glad people are feeling good and excited!)
Thank you, Simon, for not subjecting us to the standard crap from trump/vance today. We don't need to listen to them anymore.
Oh yes. I think the only reference to the racist, hating other guys here today was in the polling stuff - otherwise ignored during their boring final season.
If you are in PA and plan to vote via mail in ballot please pay extra attention to the instructions for dates on the external envelope: https://www.pennlive.com/news/2024/09/pa-high-court-in-ballot-ruling-did-not-side-with-voters-gov-shapiro.html
A great way for those outside PA to help is to sign up for a ballot curing phonebank.Voters truly appreciate these calls notifying them of an issue with their ballot.📲🗳️
https://www.mobilize.us/2024yesshecancampaign/event/676131/
Thanks so much for this. I passed it along to my contacts!!!
and signed up myself for multiple shifts. Really important.
Me too - for Oct 7 & 14. First time ever! Hope they have a training
Thanks!
Do you know when the PA ballots get mailed out?
Unfortunately (and inexplicably to me) it seems to vary by county. Here is Bucks county estimate (they don't even publish an exact date): https://www.buckscounty.gov/1225/Vote-by-Mail
Ok thanks. I’m in Delaware Cty. Maybe they just don’t mail them out yet. I was wondering why I didn’t get mine - all ready to vote early!
Excited to vote on Friday!
On a side note, I’ve been driving through western and northern Wisconsin a lot. These are ruby red rural districts. Compared to previous years, I’m seeing fewer Trump signs and flags than 2020 (and way fewer than 2016) and a huge increase of Harris signs (many home made) compared to previous elections. This is especially true in small towns.
I know signs don’t vote, but it is an indicator of voter enthusiasm. My take is the strategy of losing by less in rural areas is working and we’re doing the work to have the election we want.
Your observation and reflections are so encouraging!
I just drove to and from Cable, WI from the Twin Cities and was surprised to see so few Trump signs along the way. Four years ago, they were everywhere. Not this year. And I wore my Cat Ladies for Kamala shirt and received lots of smiles in town. Woot! (Wearing the shirt at home is a little boring- everybody smiles, even my Trumper and Libertarian neighbors. They know they are badly outnumbered here!) Fingers crossed WI joins the blue column again!
Obviously, yard signs are a particularly unreliable metric. Many strong Biden '20 voters didn't put up a sign because 1) they just were less likely to be "that sort of person," 2) they lived in a blue area and thought it would be redundant, or 3) lived in a red area and were concerned about some sort of hate.
So while a greater proportion of Harris signs doesn't mean there are actually any new blue votes in the area, it actually still signals a key change: Dems are more and more increasingly likely to say "Screw it, I'm loud and proud too!" This does wonders for breaking the authoritarian spell. It is akin to when someone finally tells off the school bully and all of a sudden everybody begins proclaiming how they ae sick of the bully too, and suddenly it is impossible for the bully to go on pretending silence is support. Plus, the kid who told them off tends to become the new hero.
I already know my plan: Here in Washington state, we'll be getting our ballots on October 18. As soon as I clock off work that day, I'm going straight to the mailbox, filling out my ballot, and walking it to the downtown library drop box less than two miles from where I live. Then I'm going to go celebrate with a nice dinner and then encourage everyone else to vote!
I don't know exactly when I'll get my ballot. But I have basically the same plan. City Hall has a dropbox a 5 minute walk from home. Once I drop it in, I can verify online that my vote was accepted. Usually that takes a day or two.
October 8 is start of early voting in Ohio. I am getting two people in my social circle registered for the first time to vote, after having had some good conversations with them both. Every little bit counts, even for time and money strapped people like me :)
BTW will be voting in person at the BOE office at county courthouse on October 8, day 1 !!!!!!!
Yay!
Terrific!
for some more positive news on the election. Bill Mahr finally said on Friday that trump is finished.
also, chris bouzy an american technology entrepreneur who is into twitter analytics gave his latest election forecast yesterday. hope springs eternal. he said harris is going to win big taking all the battleground states plus north carolina, georgia if the election rules go back to normal and florida. he said harris will get at least 349 electoral votes and trump will be under 200. he has a following based on the responses he got on his forecast yesterday
He also predicted a 50/50 senate. according to him we will lose west virginia because manchin is retiring and montana but gain florida for a senate seat
Wouldn't that be awesome? I'd never heard of Chris Bouzy before but just found his post with those numbers:
https://spoutible.com/thread/35986112
Christopher Bouzy is awesome! He also started BotSentinel.com to track Twitter bots. He's a tech whiz!
I went over to spoutible.com and decided to join. I couldn’t locate the data that Chris Bouzy uses to support his analysis although I will go back and look some more. If the enthusiasm gap and abortion rights successes in the most recent elections are the key then I can see a predictive landslide is well with the realm of possibility. While on the site I did my own post advertising Hopium Chronicles in the hopes that it my generate a few recruits. Cheers
I really don’t want to lose Montana. Jon Tester’s campaign sent me a postcard that he needs volunteers. I am in PA. Sign up on his website if you have time. Having a Democratic Senator in a deep red place gives me hope for our country
Tester is a three-term incumbent running against an opponent with no political experience. It would not be shrewd to bet against him no matter what any polls may or may not say. If the working theory is that Brown can run up numbers through ticket splitting as a result of twenty years of statewide name recognition, then it is patently inconsistent and illogical to not believe that Tester could do the same, especially in a small state, where name recognition goes even farther.
What is he basing losing Tester's seat on? I hope he is wrong. I don't follow Bouzy but I know a lot of people do follow him.
To be blunt, he's basing all his calls on his own personal hunches and nothing more. Sure, his hunches have numbers he attached to them, and he's theoretically a dude that's good with numbers, so for some people that gives the veneer of "very smart and knows what he's talking about." But his analysis is about as sound as any other random person who open a newspaper and use a spreadsheet.
Thank you. I try to stay focused here but sometimes, I get curious. I don't want to follow Bouzy but I see that a lot of people re-tweet him. I was curious why he is saying this as there is very little information out there about Tester's race.
You just answered your own question. It's BECAUSE there is little information. It's much easier to make a questionable call if there is less info to contest it, and much more tempting for people who are hungry for that info to get distracted by it.
People here need to keep basics in mind. A three-term incumbent (and prior state state legislative leader) losing to a political novice is something so unlikely it happens once every couple *decades.* Long-term incumbents are hard to beat. We couldn't knock off Collins in Maine in 2020 despite running the leader of the state legislature against her (who was leading all the polls) in a state Biden won by 10%. The Repubs couldn't get rid of Manchin in '18 despite W.Virginia's far right turn. Etc etc etc.
I think we all do try to keep basics mind. I also don't believe in the work like we are 10 points down. I am more motivated by good news. Worry is not preparation is my motto. That is why I don't follow Bouzy. Nothing against him. I don't even go to 538 (that often 😬). I want to get a handle on the reliable vs non reliable pollsters. I have an idea i.e. Patriot, Trafalgar = don't even bother looking at them. I have to tell you, after the debate, in my circles, I am seeing people far more energized.
I agree with you. I find good news more motivating. Fear and anger are powerful, but enthusiasm and joy are just as powerful and one route is more enjoyable to go down haha.
I think with pollsters nowadays, "reliable" is a less apt descriptor than "respectable." All of them are liable to be a bit off, but as long as their methods are transparent and reasonable, then they can be useful to look at, as long as skepticism and perspective is kept.
Thanks, Ross!
I was following Chris Bouzy around the 2022 election along with Simon and Tom Bonier. He, also, did not see a red wave I remember. I am in MT and still see MT (Tester) as a toss-up, BTW.
Good stuff!
🤞🏼🙏🏻
Yeah... I really wouldn't listen to CBouzy. He seems like a wholesome guy, but he has no political experience or acumen whatsoever. The fact he has people following him means nothing (how many people follow Musk-rat?) The Harris campaign is not even seriously contesting Florida, which hasn't elected a Democrat to a major statewide office in five election cycles. Think of the chart that Simon showed us the other day about where the DSCC money was going. Hint: it's going to Montana, Ohio, Arizona, etc., because that is where Chuck Schumer and team have decided we have the best chance, and they know a helluva lot more about this line of work that any armchair prognosticator.
I missed the chart that shows where the DSCC money is going. Was it in one of his newsletters? I want to see if I can find it. Thank you.
I found it. It was two weeks ago, so might have changed, yet I doubt it (ads are reserved far ahead of time). Scroll down to the charts that say AdImpact https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/i-would-much-rather-be-us-than-them?utm_source=publication-search
Thank you!!! I did read most of the newsletter that day but I was in a hurry and forgot to go back and finish reading it. Yes, I don't think they would be spending money there if it was a lost cause. Thank you again!!
No problem! I liked looking at it again too. I thought it was interesting that the Ds aren't really spending anything in TX, yet the Rs are. That clearly signals that while it's not competitive this year, the Rs know there is some weakness and need to fight it off. On the flipside, the national Ds have spent next to nothing in their safe-but-open seat in MD, which shows they aren't viewing it as in any real question despite the ballyhoo.
I agree. I actually saved the charts to my photos so I can refer to it.
Wasn't this before the Harris campaign gave 37 million to the Senate and House campaigns?
My family and friends and I just wrote 300 postcards to voters in the great state of Arizona at our pizza party over the weekend. (We live in Washington state.) Let's put AZ in the blue column! My father RIP lived in Arizona after he retired from teaching. Grew up in the red state of Wyoming and a Republican all his life. If he was in AZ today, I am pretty darn confident he'd vote BLUE. "Why would I vote for that knuckleheaded jackass?" I can hear him say. "He's way out of line." He respected people of all persuasions. He didn't get into other people's business. Was for women's reproductive rights. He knew where the line was.
Your dad sounds like a great guy! This made me smile. 💙
We had a successful weekend in Virginia - the energy is HUGE - and the turnout for canvass launches, events, postcarding - is just off the chains! Keep it rolling - and join us Friday September 20 at the polls - check out the map - to join an event or add yours - from PA to NY to VA and beyond - put your event on the map! YAH! Check out our awesome website curated by Denis Orsinger: https://www.virginiagrassroots.org/election-vote-early.php
I'm doing a presentation on voting at the univ. where I'm on faculty and the NJ sec. of state is holding another annual Ballot Bowl, which she initiated in 2017 - it's a statewide voter reg. competition amongst college students. NJ Votes! We are all kicking a$$!
My family and friends and I just wrote 300 postcards to voters in the great state of Arizona and our pizza party over the weekend. Let's put AZ in the blue column! My father RIP lived in Arizona after he retired from teaching. Grew up in the red state of Wyoming and a republican all his life. If he was in AZ today, I am pretty darn confident he'd vote BLUE. "Why would I vote for that knuckleheaded jackass?" I can hear him say. "He's way out of line." He respected people of all persuasions. He didn't get into other people's business. Was for women's reproductive rights. He knew where the line was.
Sounds like your Dad and Tim Walz would agree with the, "Mind your own damn business!" philosophy.
I just got back from the grocery store here in Portland, OR. An older guy was shopping wearing his "Mind your own damn business" T-shirt. I complemented him on his good taste.
Love it!
I need that Taylor Swift flag!!!!
So curious about your take on the « assassination attempt » yesterday, Simon! Today of course, news coverage is wall to wall on that, so the debate fail and eating pets are gone…kind of convenient, no? So weird.
Excited about the new polls…keeping my head down. Was in Kenosha, WI on Sat and talked w a felon who is now « off papers » and can register to vote! Love when I find these folks and help them get registered!
Just finished more postcards last night and still have about 75 Postcards to Swing States to get written…will get my husband to help as we approach the deadline!!!
If you’re doing Post Cards to Swing States (as I am) the instructions are not to mail them until Oct. 15. Mine are going to Ohio but the last day Ohioans can register to vote is Oct. 7. I’m thinking sending postcards after the 7th isn’t the best idea. So I plan to mail mine in about a week.
Judy, it's worth watching their video on why they chose the dates they did. These postcards all go to registered voters, for one thing. It's on their facebook page.
Judy, please do not mail early. In 2021, I participated in 4 different experiments about when to mail letters/postcards run by Vote Forward and Swing Left. They wanted to see if early or later dates were more effective to improve turnout, and how many letters a person should receive. The dates of mailing, and number of contacts are all supported by good data for maximal impact. I appreciate your enthusiasm, but please, stick to the instructions.
David, I generally agree! However, I'm wondering about recent concerns that have emerged about delays with the post office...possibly being engineered by DeJoy, evil Postmaster General...what do you think about whether this should or should not affect mailing dates???
I remember a lot of the same worries and concerns regarding Vote Forward's Big Send for the 2020 election. The 15 million letters sent in one day is a TINY fraction of the daily letter handling capacity of the USPS and the experiments that I participated in showed no delay in delivery. Vote Forward actually ran a test mailing sample to test the capability of the USPS for the 2020 election under DeJoy's regime.
As Cheryl Johnson noted in her response to you, there are lots of different campaigns targeting different groups of voters. Each group has its own characteristics and targets. There has been a whole ton of good quality research on direct mail to people and how to maximize efectiveness. Not just in politics, but also in marketing for household goods and services. Keep up your excellent writing and stick to the mailing instructions, We will WIN!
Thank you David. Mine go out Oct 11. I’m sticking to the script and the date they’re giving us. I think their website said any post office delays are already factored into the mailing date.
I mean, if Louis DeJoy is an evil henchman, he's a massively bumbling and incompetent one. If he was trying to throw the election for his old boss, and couldn't manage to do it in the middle of a pandemic when said boss was still stinking up the White House... what makes you think he could pull off such a devious scheme this time? Never ascribe malice where incompetence is more plausible.
In short... mail the postcards when the instructions say to! The people who came up with this operation have thought through all of this, and we need to respect that.
Judy, I agree with Ellen and David. When to mail postcards depends on the audience and the objective.
I mailed my Reclaim the Vote Postcards today (recommended mail date range 9/15 to 9/30) because these voters may have been purged from the voter rolls and the last day to register in NC is October 11 if you want to vote by mail or on Nov 5. (Voters can also register to vote during the early voting period 10/17 - Nov 2). But the key point is that there is a call to action that can be executed NOW. Postcards to encourage people to apply for a Mail-in ballot also have early mail dates for the same reason.
Simon's vote on Day 1 postcard campaigns are going to Prime (i.e., very consistent) voters and have mail dates that are about 1 week before the earliest date that the recipient can vote.
The Postcards to Swing States are going to registered voters who they believe are progressive, but don't always vote. IIRC they refer to these voters as "Surge Voters" and these voters do NOT tend to vote early, so mailing your postcards too soon dramatically reduces their efficacy!
I'm sure you have good intentions, but please do NOT assume you know more than the experts who have set the mail dates.
Interesting. I finished a few batches of cards from Swing States. One batch said to mail them October 11th and rest said to mail them October 15th. Even though a day or two might not matter much, I am going to do exactly as the letter(s) states. 💙
Now Cindy, if you keep demonstrating a cool head and such damn common sense, I'm not sure what we're gonna do with you!
😂😂 I am SO going to do EXACTLY what the letter instructed. Initially, a friend was writing the cards with me. We were so, well, I won't say. We actually got a ruler to measure where to put the label and exactly where to start writing the message based on the sample given in the instructions. After more time than I want to admit, we both laughed and just started sticking the labels on and then writing the message. Well, to be honest, first we put stamps on several cards, then the label, then the message. 😂😂😂
Judy: Instructions for postcards to Swing States vary depending on which particular messages are going to which particular states. Mine are going to GA and are not supposed to be mailed until Oct. 26th. They really don't want folks choosing when to mail them...but with concerns re post office delays mounting, I MIGHT mail mine a little early.
Sometimes, they have different sets of postcards going out to the same folks w different messages and with different mail dates. It's best not to mess too much with the dates they give.
You are probably sending cards to people who are already registered voters in Ohio in any case.
Yes, follow directions please.
I think they’ve already factored in mailing times and post office delays into the dates they give you. So I would stick to their dates.
Postcards to Swing States specifies that they have already accounted for possible mail delays in their chosen mail-by dates. Better to trust them and mail on the date assigned. Are you sure yours are asking people to register to vote? Mine are asking Ohioans to have a plan to vote on Nov 5.
Freda, there are lots of different messages going to different types/groups of voters in different States. Some groups of voters have been identified as strictly Election Day voters. The data collection has been very robust in the last decade!
Exactly! My Ohio ones were for voting on the day. On the other hand, some of my Blue Wave batches were headed for GA for absentee, and needed to be mailed within 2 wks of being received. Reaching voters has become so much more data-driven, detailed and accurate. And effective.
Just a quick point to add to Simon's take on the recent polls. I spent 5 minutes yesterday on 538 looking at the most recent polls they had in their average. The simple average was a lead of 4% while the 538 result was a lead of 2.6%. I know they have "adjustments", and these 25 data points included the outlier polls from AtlasIntel, but more than a full point lower in the average? To further the point, while almost all the polls show the VP growing her lead after the debate, the 538 average actually got tighter.
I say all of this as a reminder that there is a lot of junk out there that we just need to ignore and instead keep doing the work! I am excited to do my part over the next 7 weeks and I know you all are too. Keep up the good work everyone!
Besides reminding the public that Trump hates dogs and stole from kids with cancer, the public needs to decide whether it would have been OK to hang Mike Pence, beat up 145 cops, shit on Nancy Pelosi's desk, on Jan 6, etc.
None of the polls I've seen address these issues.......
I asked our data group to test known MAGAs....
Anecdotally it works. https://rvat.org/ Makes them cry in their beer.
Exactly. There's a lot more behind all this that polling isn't capturing.
Nope, we are concentrating on our positive message of Hopium
1. WE DON"T WRITE THE POLLING QUESTIONS.
2. When we remind them them Trump hates dogs and stole from kids with cancer, here's what happens. https://leavingmaga.org/
BTW, tomorrow is National Registration Day.
https://www.mobilize.us/floridadems/event/694773/
Understanding this election is not about polling questions. We have the new analyses by Simon and Tom Bonier that consider many other factors such as the effect of the Dobbs decision, new voter registration (especially younger voters), the dramatically higher amount of grassroot funding and campaigning effort that we Democrats have, the effect of young online content creators, and all the other indicators of intensity that are pointing to wins at the top and down ballot.
IMHO because they do not ask about Jan 6, they are invalid.
As Simon notes, Republicans have been underperforming -- and Trump does not have the same support that he had before Jan 6.
Any thoughts on the effect the assault weapon gun nut present on trump's golf course, while the grifter was playing (doesn't he spend more time on the golf course than anyplace else?), will have, if any? Ironic that the biggest threat to trump has come from assault weapons, and it's his party that is responsible for their proliferation. We still don't know what happened at the shooting at the rally, that resulted in the picture of trump with a raised fist. He certainly wasn't shot in the ear. It would not heal in one to two days, if ever, considering the anatomy of the ear and how poorly it can heal with a significant wound. Why has no impartial and competent medical report on that shooting been made public, which has always been done in such situations? trump, of course, would do anything -- literally anything -- to get elected.
No, because we are not focusing on that. We are focused on winning with Kamala-Harris and our down-ballot races.
No time for this there's too much Hard Work to do. Hard Work is Good Work.
Yawn. Another assassination attempt. Borring. Possible sex scandal with a 9/11 Truther. Who cares? Writes in all caps that he hates Taylor. Ho hum. America is just not into Donald any more. Mayor Pete said it better, but I'm just so over any more coverage of that guy.
"School shootings – and attempted Trump assassinations – are "just a fact of life"."
– JD Vance, paraphrased
You are just too on point. :-}
Probably not a good idea to blow off discussions of events and issues that might affect the race. Most of us can carry on such discussions AND work to elect Kamala and other Dems in November. Shying away from discussion can mean getting blind-sided and missing opportunities to effectively and proactively counter messaging coming from the MAGA cult.
David I liked your post and I agree... to a point. It's just that some of us are wary of what might be attempts to distract us from the work at hand, and send us down debate/discussion rabbit holes. There are infiltrators in abundance trying to knock us off course, here and on ALL social media. There are some AMAZING folks on Team Hopium too. But as Lucy said in the Peanuts strip, "It's getting so you can't tell the phonies from the realies!"
Okay... all done with 50 postcards for Nebraska Blue Dot, now starting 50 for Arizona. Go Team Hopium GO GO GO we GOT this 🥥🌴💪
"Probably not a good idea to blow off discussions of events and issues that might affect the race."
No offense, but you have ironically just perfectly encapsulated the line of thinking that Democrats have used since time immemorial to shoot themselves in both feet and then the face. Any array of events and issues MIGHT affect the race, and yes you absolutely should blow off every last one that provides any hint of distraction to the main message. The way to win is to decide that WE DECIDE what affects the race. The Harris campaign is winning right now because - in an era of info overload - they have refused to give in to talking about anything other than their core message. Focus, focus, focus, focus.