Early days yet. Polls are always at best several days behind whatever is going on. The fact that already we are seeing some movement is a good sign, but we will not get a real sense from polling for a week or more. We need to be conscious of the fact that there is high motivation in some quarters to create polls that say what they want them to say, so consider ALL polls carefully before making any assumptions about what they indicate.
Campaigning is about telling your story and responding to their attacks. Right now we have a lot of info to fill in about Harris and that is where the focus is right now. We are telling our story which includes her being a law and order prosecutor, which is an implicit rebuttal of their attacks. Responding to attacks rather than telling your story allows the other side to dictate the terms of the debate. We are playing offense now not defense, and in politics if you are not on offense you are losing.
The Harris-Walz Campaign, and the speakers at DNC, are playing this brilliantly! And the videos being presented are so full of empathy, and so hard-hitting when they need to be. Stellar!
They've been hitting immigration a lot and she will likely address inflation/the economy but do agree that most speakers should be repeatedly pointing out their lies about those top three issues. The stats just don't support any of it.
An interested party (like the opposition in an election) pointing out lies from the other side is never an effective strategy. People just figure that everyone is probably lying and ignore the whole thing. Our immigration message is really simple. Trump wants to talk about immigration because he thinks it helps him. Voters can see that plainly. So it’s equally obvious once we point it out that he stopped a bill that would have solved the problem so he could keep talking about it. He killed the toughest border security bill of our time for his own reasons. She will sign it. That’s part of her stump speech. It’s nearly impossible to overcome the exaggerated assumption people have that democrats want to put all illegal immigrants on welfare while republicans want to put them all on a one way train back where they came from. What you can do is undercut their message by reframing the issue in terms of what nearly everyone believes: Donald Trump only does things that benefit him. Campaigns go off course when they keep changing their message to respond to the opposition’s lies. In fact, it only encourages them to keep lying so they can keep calling the tune. We have to have a really simple message: They’re in it for themselves, their billionaire masters, and their extremist agenda. We are in it for you.
Brian--In the abstract I agree with you. Paraphrasing Stalin, one lie is an outrage, 50,000 thousand are a statistic; they're too abstract and overwhelming to take in. The key is finding the pony in the manure--the lie or lies that really piss people off and can stand in for the whole.
I think the Repos did an effective job of this re: Obamacare, hammering over and over that Obama promised you could keep your doctor and that turned out not to be true. Granted, that's probably at least partly the result of differences in how the electorate perceived the parties--the Repos have long been perceived as strong, the Dems as weak, and we aren't far enough out of the caves to get beyond what that means, ie the strong can get away with a lot because that's the strong just being strong, while the weak have to be perfect just to have the right to exist, or as the ancient Greek historian Thucydides put it,"the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."
In other words, maybe it only took one lie to damage Obama, but it's going to be harder to find the number between 1 and 50,000 that does the same thing to Trump without causing voters to glaze over (I think this is also why it's *so* important, imnsho, that we have two candidates in Kamala and Walz who are *never* on defense, *always* on offense, who will *never* look weak, and that so many Dems in both the leadership and rank-and-file are following their lead).
In any case, what are the lies Trump has told that have the same potential for consequence as the one the Repos pinned on Obama? I'm working on something called the Shillboard 100--the 100 worst lies Trump has told, which I want to put on a platform like Reddit that allows upvotes, downvotes, and additions, so we, the people, can help determine (and showcase via sharing) the lies voters are most likely to find consequential, unless the campaign has already done the research to determine this (tbh, it doesn't look and feel like it has). I don't think we can or should allow Trump free reign to marinate the electorate in the cynicism of "everybody lies;" there's some pretty good evidence that people see his lying as something beyond the ordinary and beyond the pale.
Two examples:
* The Univision focus group of Latino/Latina voters during the Trump-Biden debate unanimously declared Biden the winner. Why? Because they felt (accurately) that all Trump did was lie, and they were offended by this and what it implied about what trust they could put in him.
* After the debate, but when Biden was still in the race, getting battered on all sides about his age and ability to serve, Marist did a poll that asked voters what they considered to be a more serious problem: a candidate who is too old or a candidate who lies? *Two-thirds* of the respondents said a candidate who lies is more problematic. The MSM outlet where I read this (I think someone in this community posted the link) predictably tried to downplay it by pointing out that 51% of the sample favored Biden (he was polling at about 47-48% at the time--the bottom hadn't started falling out yet), which is kind of inane, even if you assume all 51% of those people were part of the 67% (which is never, ever true).
One of his weirdest lies was told recently to Elon Musk in which he recalled a conversation with Putin as if they were talking back and forth in English (Putin only speaks through a translator) and in which he warned Putin not to invade Ukraine because it would be bad for him. But he posted on Twitter right after the invasion about what a genius move it was. Anyone can look it up. I actually think "he's a liar" is less accurate an assessment of Trump than is "He just runs his mouth constantly and has no idea what he's even saying half the time." Indeed, if you were to remove all the meaningless filler phrases like "frankly" and "more than anyone has ever seen" and all the repetitions, he says very little at all.
Yes-- a thought along these lines: Remembering times in my life when I felt hopeless and angry (there were a few), I would not have been able to listen to all this joy stuff, much less feel included in it. I hope that Kamala acknowledges the anger that TFG has pulled up, the legitimate reasons for it, the pull of it--especially for working-class whites. If I were MAGA because it all seems so unfair and out of reach (and not because I am a loose-screw disconnected-from-reality cult member, if that difference exists?), I would not feel included yet, though I would want to be. I wouldn't feel *heard*. I hope Kamala can convey that she *hears* me.
Jane, I get it. I can be cynical about politicians and have a pretty keen ear for those who are throwing words around for the effect. I don't sense any of that here. But I hear a lot of it from MAGA politicians. We can't change that, or the fact that some people choose to believe it and do not see that they are being manipulated.
I've been active in local and state-level politics for a long time, and my sense is that good people have been here all along, but the corporate media and the far right has so distorted what the issues are and what politics is all about for so long that many people can't see past the posturing.
Right now, we need the joy and we need the optimism so that we can keep going and create the kind of Democratic America we believe in. As for the people who don't think they are included, they are already starting to see that they are already benefiting from the changes made by the Biden/Harris administration and the hard work of Democratic Congress people. That will only grow stronger, especially when they are able to see that their own R Congressional reps are claiming credit for what they voted against.
The last few days is what the Democratic Party has been all along at base for decades now. But media only covered the superficial stuff.
Think: We, against huge odds over the last few decades, created a foundation for building a health care system for all of us. We held onto our LGBTQ+ loved ones and made it possible for them to transcend the bigotry. We steadfastingly stood up for the rights of all of us to vote. Yes, a work in progress, but we ARE making progress. We, state by state, have worked to protect women's right to make their own decisions about health care. Another work in progress, but it is front and center- and it is an issue that women and men from all kinds of backgrounds support.
The convention itself highlighted some of the issues that we all face. We are running a campaign that is positive and hopeful. The very fact that people who once worked for Trump or voted for him were willing to stand on the stage and tell their stories is proof that they feel heard. Some people let their anger inform them and others hang on to their anger. One woman who spoke was a Trump supporter who finally realized that he was not what she'd been led to believe. Her recognition led her to take a good hard look and rethink what she'd been told. She now is the chair of her local Democratic committee. Some other former Trumpers who spoke at the convention had not gone that far, but nonetheless felt comfortable enough to stand up on stage or via video to say that they do not want Trump and that they willingly support Kamala.
Feeling heard depends on the willingness to also hear, and use one's disappointment or discouragement or anger in a way that facilitates communication instead of creating a barrier. I can't change the mind of someone with a closed mind, but I can illuminate the truth if that someone chooses to see it.
I was aware of Walz before, having friends in MN who thought highly of him. But I had no idea of the breadth and the depth of his ability not only to understand the needs of people but to communicate his understanding so clearly and with such empathy. His record for getting things done doesn't need explaining. Kamala Harris made an excellent choice, and we will all benefit from it- even those who don't grasp it yet.
Others have posted this: a lecture by Tim Walz on geography, maps and the visual presentation of complex data. It’s astounding and beautiful – and worth every minute of your time.
As a former teacher (if such a thing really exists), yup, this is beautiful. Somebody should make a movie about the kids doing GIS maps and predicting the genocide in Rwanda (and the impact that had on the kids). And what he's been doing with maps as governor is one of those things where you say "why hasn't everybody been doing this for years?" Which is a mark of genius, right?
A lot of people HAVE been doing this for years, including schools. But a lot of folks just aren't aware of it. And I agree: it is beautiful. It is a wonderful way of layering data visually so that the connections can be seen- much much easier that slogging through miles of spreadsheet printouts. It is joyful to do and joyful to use in communicating complex data in a way that can be easily understood.
Thank you so much for this link. If I've run across this before, I've read right past it. So glad to see this. When VP Harris announced her running mate, my only thought was "oh-oh, I know nothing about this person." First impression was very good, plus I trusted her judgment in picking her best partner. The more I learn of him, the more impressed I am and the more admiration I have for him as a PERSON first, and a politician somewhere down the road...
Switching subjects, this from Meidas Touch some days ago:
Vance & Trump; a man of no convictions and a man of 34 convictions. Funny, not funny.
What I really like about Tim Walz is that he talks like real folks do. I think this is why he connects. He doesn’t sound like a politician. Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro and the other prospective choices are fine people, but they *sound* like politicians.
"The Vice President has her largest lead to date in 538’s polling averages, 3.3 points, 47% to 43.7%. It’s a lead larger than any lead Trump had this year."
And as Simon points out, Trump leads in only one swing state: 538.
Moreover, 538’s polling average has narrowed to 4.1% in Florida, and the latest Texas poll has narrowed to 5%. Also, Harris is leading by 5% in the usually-Red ME-02! Imagine the political earthquake if our voter registration and GOTV efforts lead Kamala Harris to win BOTH Florida and Texas!
PS. That same Texas pollster (University of Houston, et al) has Ted Cruz’s lead reduced to a mere 2% amongst likely voters! Our odds of holding the Senate keep getting better and better!
It will just never cease to amaze me that this is anywhere near close - especially after the power and optimism of the past month and its contrast with the "dark" alternative. So I'm going to DO SOMETHING again today!
Many people in the "red" states have become suspicious of Dems and will vote for whoever the R is, and tfg has a cult like following that will stick with him no matter what. We are not in jeopardy in the PV IMO, just the antiquated EC, but thems the rules, so places like FL and TX remain a problem for us, as does a lot of the South and Mid West. We will need a sea change to win them back, but things have changed a lot in my lifetime; NJ was a "red" state at times, but not since 88. Still Ocean County NJ, which is sort of the first stop for disaffected North Jersey Whites, along with Staten Islanders, and is a feeder into the FL retirement community, had the 3rd highest trump support in the country in 2020, and that is in Blue NJ.....but I think both TX and FL will be closer than a lot of other red states. Lakshya Jain was on a show I heard, and he said that Harris has moved the needle significantly, but still is not at Biden's 2020 numbers with Hispanics and Blacks in AZ, NV, and GA, and she needs to be to win those states; however, he thinks she can still win the EC even without them; my guess is he thinks we take the Blue Wall and NE 2; he also thinks she has time to grow and trump has failed to really define her, and he is running out of time; by mid Sept people's will be baked in as far as feelings towards her. We have cause to be optimistic; the media narrative is that the DNC is rocking it, I feared it would be all Gaza but that didn't stick. And trump might be talking to Bibi on the phone which is a felony....so far he denies it, but who can believe anything he says? Jain writes about this in Politico if you want to read it; I already heard his breakdown so won't bother.
He talked to Netanyahu at Mara Lago. We all know what he said. Don’t talk cease fire until after November 5th. He ordered his minions in congress to not pass the border bill for the same reasons. Trump doesn’t care about anyone but himself. Count the Me s, Myself, and I s along with all his lies = Trump!
Wow. I'm an earth scientist and in early days we used ESRI to do all kinds of interesting things to understand the interactions of water, earth, pollution, & people. Watching Governor Walz use this phenomenal tool so skillfully to layer together data about people and their environment and use graphic mapping to SHOW how useful it is blew my admiration for him out of this world! Another amazing accomplishment in his portfolio. And this talk really shows off his ability to communicate complex concepts to ordinary folks. I am impressed.
Love hearing this from an earth scientist! I know nothing about ESRI and Walz was able to introduce it to me in a way I could understand. Clearly, he also introduced it in a way that those students could understand. That he threw them all the problem of where and when would there be the next genocide, and they were able to pinpoint Rwanda........opens such potential!
I’m not even sure how to describe what I felt last night - hope, love, optimism, patriotism, joy were included but not sufficient. Every person that spoke said things I resonated to, especially hearing from Republicans and Independents on the floor of the DNC! Seeing how deep the Democrats bench is was gobsmacking! Hearing the passion and commitment to democratic ideals from literally everyone was like bathing in joy and for too long, despite being an active citizen, I more often felt fear and dread rather than joy. Not today.
And I gotta say, my Governor is bringing it! I am fortunate enough to be represented by Democrats at every level. They all work hard and often deliver far beyond expectations. But watching this metastasize because Walz is such a truly decent human is just plain heaven. The Hopium is spreading.
Back to postcards. I have a speech to watch later but work comes first. Let’s do this!
So amazing! This convention is chock-a-block with Hopium - not the least of which, ALL of Simon's fantastic data-driven work on how good our party has been for America's economy (among other things) is woven throughout. President Clinton hit a note directly on that theme in his speech. And Walz is a breath of fresh air!
Tim Walz just kinda makes you feel good about people in general….the last person to elevate the word “neighbor” this much was Mr. Rogers, and I’m here for it! 😁🇺🇸
Love this. I am convinced that this world would be an amazing place if we could do what I did with my kids and that was sit them in front of Mr Rogers every afternoon with milk and cookies!!!
All the speakers were great! Especially Governor/Coach Walz!
The convention is a great expression of JOY& HOPE.
This morning I was brought back to day to day reality.
A ultra right evangelical medical professional sent me a clip of a guy talking on CNN claiming the Democrats have ruined America because they have been in charge for 10 years? What?
No push back by the host.
Bill Clinton is right powerful people want to control America. We better realize that when Democrats succeed Corporate America will double down to take away our freedom.
Ah, yes. That was the other Hopium concept in Bill Clinton's speech - Simon's deck re: job creation and looking at the crossroads of this moment in terms of freedom vs. domination
We had 28 folks over at my house last night phonebanking into Nevada for Kamala. Some good convos, some less-good, but all of ‘em important, and each one giving the Harris campaign vital information that it will use down the line to maximize its GOTV operation. We are the turnout machine, folks, and the other side doesn’t have anything like us. If you haven’t yet, please tap in and join.
Simon, excellent messages today and thank you for your work in analysyou is and communicating. So glad you highlighted former Lieutenant Governor of Georgia Geoff Duncan's short and impactful speech. Today Lawrence O'Donnell called his comment, "If you vote for Kamala Harris in 2024, you are not a Democrat. You are a patriot," the most consequential statement of the night. We need to realize that It is not an easy thing to change what is to many a deep seated conviction. It is not easy to leave the cult. Trump took over the core of the Republican Party, much of conservative Christianity -- including white Evangelicals and anti-abortion Catholics -- and the rich and prosperous Republicans of Wall Street and the corporate C-suites, and made this conglomeration of interests into a religion serving his own ego. It will be hard to give that up. We don't have to convince them they were wrong. and certainly not inherently evil or stupid. We just have to convince them that there is a better way for this time and for the country we all love.
Some of the best work of the convention has been showing Donald Trump's betrayal of what many Republicans want and Republican leaders agreed to on immigration and the Border -- only to try to game the horse race of the election in his favor. I and many others have been dropping donations in the various Hopium slated races. Let's urge the 100,000 members this community to make sure we reach all our donation goals. Give now when it can make a difference in the month of September.
"It is not easy to leave the cult." So, so true. Just remember how many drank the Kool-aid. But some will and others who swear not to vote for Harris/Walz just won't vote at all. At least that's my hope and what I know has happened over the years - thanks to 50+ years of voting and talking to friends & neighbors.
1. They're crushing it. It's absolutely full-on full of banger speeches (of course, some are very good politicians but surprisingly bad public speakers) and you can feel the joy and inspiration pouring out.
2. Tim Walz is an amazing choice. Kamala Harris chose the best partner for her campaign and you can clearly see how much Joe Biden shaped her and guided her. She was best partner that Joe could have picked.
3. I feel like I -- a theater kid from NJ whose high school barely had a football team but put on 10-15 off-broadway-quality theater productions a year -- am ready to go run for a 100-yard touchdown after Walz's speech. Also, Tim and I have the same ties, which is hilarious, since I've never felt closer to a politician than one who bought that same yellow-and-blue tie from Jos. A. Bank.
4. Gus Walz is adorable, a ND kid just like mine, and he LOVES HIS DAD.
5. This is just an amazing convention. This must be what it feels like to be at Taylor Swift show, only it's 100% political nerds. That being said, I did just read that Taylor landed in Nashville, picked up her parents, and is... headed somewhere else? :)
I was worried about Gus, because the GOP has no bottom so they would absolutely go after a ND kid. But he was adorable and so proud of his dad, and his dad is so proud of him, that I think it’s going to be okay. Nobody is going to let them bully Gus.
I live in NC. Drumpf has bought a ton of advertising (both online and TV) in recent weeks, and has made three trips to the state over the last two-three weeks (for a guy who hasn't been traveling hardly anywhere lately). The internal polling obviously has his campaign alarmed. Good. Hope NC swings blue in November.
We are Hopium--hope with a plan. And that's why we're busting ass and flipping NC for Kamala and Tim and Josh and Allison Riggs and Mo Green and Jeff Jackson and EVERY SINGLE DOWNBALLOT DEMOCRAT!
You can bet they weren’t planning to spend that much money in nc. We always assume they have some dastardly master plan as they desperately try to put out one new fire after another.
Harris is the final speaker at ~10:45 p.m eastern according to a White House press release today.
Insider Advantage and Trafalgar are GOP propaganda polling outfits and should be enthusiastically ignored. Thank you.
Any one single poll, no matter how well done, will on average have more error in it than the average of a bunch of well done polls.
Early days yet. Polls are always at best several days behind whatever is going on. The fact that already we are seeing some movement is a good sign, but we will not get a real sense from polling for a week or more. We need to be conscious of the fact that there is high motivation in some quarters to create polls that say what they want them to say, so consider ALL polls carefully before making any assumptions about what they indicate.
Still wondering whether we could be doing a better job in Chicago combatting more directly the inflation, crime, and immigration talking points.
Excellent convention nonetheless. MS
Seems to me there is a lot of talk about crime – Trump’s crimes – just the right amount.
Law and Order
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUTH_lOp834
...we're puttin' the band back together...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTXszRHc0qs
FREEDOM!
And channeling Robert Johnson.......https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_KkgPRo4wA
Shake those blues....If we get out the millions of unregistered folk who trend Democratic, and those that failed to vote in 2020, we win.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Need help phone banking today. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/?q=phone%20banks&tag_ids=20038
Campaigning is about telling your story and responding to their attacks. Right now we have a lot of info to fill in about Harris and that is where the focus is right now. We are telling our story which includes her being a law and order prosecutor, which is an implicit rebuttal of their attacks. Responding to attacks rather than telling your story allows the other side to dictate the terms of the debate. We are playing offense now not defense, and in politics if you are not on offense you are losing.
The Harris-Walz Campaign, and the speakers at DNC, are playing this brilliantly! And the videos being presented are so full of empathy, and so hard-hitting when they need to be. Stellar!
They've been hitting immigration a lot and she will likely address inflation/the economy but do agree that most speakers should be repeatedly pointing out their lies about those top three issues. The stats just don't support any of it.
An interested party (like the opposition in an election) pointing out lies from the other side is never an effective strategy. People just figure that everyone is probably lying and ignore the whole thing. Our immigration message is really simple. Trump wants to talk about immigration because he thinks it helps him. Voters can see that plainly. So it’s equally obvious once we point it out that he stopped a bill that would have solved the problem so he could keep talking about it. He killed the toughest border security bill of our time for his own reasons. She will sign it. That’s part of her stump speech. It’s nearly impossible to overcome the exaggerated assumption people have that democrats want to put all illegal immigrants on welfare while republicans want to put them all on a one way train back where they came from. What you can do is undercut their message by reframing the issue in terms of what nearly everyone believes: Donald Trump only does things that benefit him. Campaigns go off course when they keep changing their message to respond to the opposition’s lies. In fact, it only encourages them to keep lying so they can keep calling the tune. We have to have a really simple message: They’re in it for themselves, their billionaire masters, and their extremist agenda. We are in it for you.
Brian--In the abstract I agree with you. Paraphrasing Stalin, one lie is an outrage, 50,000 thousand are a statistic; they're too abstract and overwhelming to take in. The key is finding the pony in the manure--the lie or lies that really piss people off and can stand in for the whole.
I think the Repos did an effective job of this re: Obamacare, hammering over and over that Obama promised you could keep your doctor and that turned out not to be true. Granted, that's probably at least partly the result of differences in how the electorate perceived the parties--the Repos have long been perceived as strong, the Dems as weak, and we aren't far enough out of the caves to get beyond what that means, ie the strong can get away with a lot because that's the strong just being strong, while the weak have to be perfect just to have the right to exist, or as the ancient Greek historian Thucydides put it,"the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."
In other words, maybe it only took one lie to damage Obama, but it's going to be harder to find the number between 1 and 50,000 that does the same thing to Trump without causing voters to glaze over (I think this is also why it's *so* important, imnsho, that we have two candidates in Kamala and Walz who are *never* on defense, *always* on offense, who will *never* look weak, and that so many Dems in both the leadership and rank-and-file are following their lead).
In any case, what are the lies Trump has told that have the same potential for consequence as the one the Repos pinned on Obama? I'm working on something called the Shillboard 100--the 100 worst lies Trump has told, which I want to put on a platform like Reddit that allows upvotes, downvotes, and additions, so we, the people, can help determine (and showcase via sharing) the lies voters are most likely to find consequential, unless the campaign has already done the research to determine this (tbh, it doesn't look and feel like it has). I don't think we can or should allow Trump free reign to marinate the electorate in the cynicism of "everybody lies;" there's some pretty good evidence that people see his lying as something beyond the ordinary and beyond the pale.
Two examples:
* The Univision focus group of Latino/Latina voters during the Trump-Biden debate unanimously declared Biden the winner. Why? Because they felt (accurately) that all Trump did was lie, and they were offended by this and what it implied about what trust they could put in him.
* After the debate, but when Biden was still in the race, getting battered on all sides about his age and ability to serve, Marist did a poll that asked voters what they considered to be a more serious problem: a candidate who is too old or a candidate who lies? *Two-thirds* of the respondents said a candidate who lies is more problematic. The MSM outlet where I read this (I think someone in this community posted the link) predictably tried to downplay it by pointing out that 51% of the sample favored Biden (he was polling at about 47-48% at the time--the bottom hadn't started falling out yet), which is kind of inane, even if you assume all 51% of those people were part of the 67% (which is never, ever true).
One of his weirdest lies was told recently to Elon Musk in which he recalled a conversation with Putin as if they were talking back and forth in English (Putin only speaks through a translator) and in which he warned Putin not to invade Ukraine because it would be bad for him. But he posted on Twitter right after the invasion about what a genius move it was. Anyone can look it up. I actually think "he's a liar" is less accurate an assessment of Trump than is "He just runs his mouth constantly and has no idea what he's even saying half the time." Indeed, if you were to remove all the meaningless filler phrases like "frankly" and "more than anyone has ever seen" and all the repetitions, he says very little at all.
Yes-- a thought along these lines: Remembering times in my life when I felt hopeless and angry (there were a few), I would not have been able to listen to all this joy stuff, much less feel included in it. I hope that Kamala acknowledges the anger that TFG has pulled up, the legitimate reasons for it, the pull of it--especially for working-class whites. If I were MAGA because it all seems so unfair and out of reach (and not because I am a loose-screw disconnected-from-reality cult member, if that difference exists?), I would not feel included yet, though I would want to be. I wouldn't feel *heard*. I hope Kamala can convey that she *hears* me.
Jane, I get it. I can be cynical about politicians and have a pretty keen ear for those who are throwing words around for the effect. I don't sense any of that here. But I hear a lot of it from MAGA politicians. We can't change that, or the fact that some people choose to believe it and do not see that they are being manipulated.
I've been active in local and state-level politics for a long time, and my sense is that good people have been here all along, but the corporate media and the far right has so distorted what the issues are and what politics is all about for so long that many people can't see past the posturing.
Right now, we need the joy and we need the optimism so that we can keep going and create the kind of Democratic America we believe in. As for the people who don't think they are included, they are already starting to see that they are already benefiting from the changes made by the Biden/Harris administration and the hard work of Democratic Congress people. That will only grow stronger, especially when they are able to see that their own R Congressional reps are claiming credit for what they voted against.
The last few days is what the Democratic Party has been all along at base for decades now. But media only covered the superficial stuff.
Think: We, against huge odds over the last few decades, created a foundation for building a health care system for all of us. We held onto our LGBTQ+ loved ones and made it possible for them to transcend the bigotry. We steadfastingly stood up for the rights of all of us to vote. Yes, a work in progress, but we ARE making progress. We, state by state, have worked to protect women's right to make their own decisions about health care. Another work in progress, but it is front and center- and it is an issue that women and men from all kinds of backgrounds support.
The convention itself highlighted some of the issues that we all face. We are running a campaign that is positive and hopeful. The very fact that people who once worked for Trump or voted for him were willing to stand on the stage and tell their stories is proof that they feel heard. Some people let their anger inform them and others hang on to their anger. One woman who spoke was a Trump supporter who finally realized that he was not what she'd been led to believe. Her recognition led her to take a good hard look and rethink what she'd been told. She now is the chair of her local Democratic committee. Some other former Trumpers who spoke at the convention had not gone that far, but nonetheless felt comfortable enough to stand up on stage or via video to say that they do not want Trump and that they willingly support Kamala.
Feeling heard depends on the willingness to also hear, and use one's disappointment or discouragement or anger in a way that facilitates communication instead of creating a barrier. I can't change the mind of someone with a closed mind, but I can illuminate the truth if that someone chooses to see it.
I thought I liked Tim Walz before his speech. I was wrong, I love him now.
I was aware of Walz before, having friends in MN who thought highly of him. But I had no idea of the breadth and the depth of his ability not only to understand the needs of people but to communicate his understanding so clearly and with such empathy. His record for getting things done doesn't need explaining. Kamala Harris made an excellent choice, and we will all benefit from it- even those who don't grasp it yet.
Others have posted this: a lecture by Tim Walz on geography, maps and the visual presentation of complex data. It’s astounding and beautiful – and worth every minute of your time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ni8BrT0-6gM
As a former teacher (if such a thing really exists), yup, this is beautiful. Somebody should make a movie about the kids doing GIS maps and predicting the genocide in Rwanda (and the impact that had on the kids). And what he's been doing with maps as governor is one of those things where you say "why hasn't everybody been doing this for years?" Which is a mark of genius, right?
A lot of people HAVE been doing this for years, including schools. But a lot of folks just aren't aware of it. And I agree: it is beautiful. It is a wonderful way of layering data visually so that the connections can be seen- much much easier that slogging through miles of spreadsheet printouts. It is joyful to do and joyful to use in communicating complex data in a way that can be easily understood.
Thank you so much for this link. If I've run across this before, I've read right past it. So glad to see this. When VP Harris announced her running mate, my only thought was "oh-oh, I know nothing about this person." First impression was very good, plus I trusted her judgment in picking her best partner. The more I learn of him, the more impressed I am and the more admiration I have for him as a PERSON first, and a politician somewhere down the road...
Switching subjects, this from Meidas Touch some days ago:
Vance & Trump; a man of no convictions and a man of 34 convictions. Funny, not funny.
What I really like about Tim Walz is that he talks like real folks do. I think this is why he connects. He doesn’t sound like a politician. Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro and the other prospective choices are fine people, but they *sound* like politicians.
"The Vice President has her largest lead to date in 538’s polling averages, 3.3 points, 47% to 43.7%. It’s a lead larger than any lead Trump had this year."
And as Simon points out, Trump leads in only one swing state: 538.
Moreover, 538’s polling average has narrowed to 4.1% in Florida, and the latest Texas poll has narrowed to 5%. Also, Harris is leading by 5% in the usually-Red ME-02! Imagine the political earthquake if our voter registration and GOTV efforts lead Kamala Harris to win BOTH Florida and Texas!
PS. That same Texas pollster (University of Houston, et al) has Ted Cruz’s lead reduced to a mere 2% amongst likely voters! Our odds of holding the Senate keep getting better and better!
Agree!
It will just never cease to amaze me that this is anywhere near close - especially after the power and optimism of the past month and its contrast with the "dark" alternative. So I'm going to DO SOMETHING again today!
Many people in the "red" states have become suspicious of Dems and will vote for whoever the R is, and tfg has a cult like following that will stick with him no matter what. We are not in jeopardy in the PV IMO, just the antiquated EC, but thems the rules, so places like FL and TX remain a problem for us, as does a lot of the South and Mid West. We will need a sea change to win them back, but things have changed a lot in my lifetime; NJ was a "red" state at times, but not since 88. Still Ocean County NJ, which is sort of the first stop for disaffected North Jersey Whites, along with Staten Islanders, and is a feeder into the FL retirement community, had the 3rd highest trump support in the country in 2020, and that is in Blue NJ.....but I think both TX and FL will be closer than a lot of other red states. Lakshya Jain was on a show I heard, and he said that Harris has moved the needle significantly, but still is not at Biden's 2020 numbers with Hispanics and Blacks in AZ, NV, and GA, and she needs to be to win those states; however, he thinks she can still win the EC even without them; my guess is he thinks we take the Blue Wall and NE 2; he also thinks she has time to grow and trump has failed to really define her, and he is running out of time; by mid Sept people's will be baked in as far as feelings towards her. We have cause to be optimistic; the media narrative is that the DNC is rocking it, I feared it would be all Gaza but that didn't stick. And trump might be talking to Bibi on the phone which is a felony....so far he denies it, but who can believe anything he says? Jain writes about this in Politico if you want to read it; I already heard his breakdown so won't bother.
He talked to Netanyahu at Mara Lago. We all know what he said. Don’t talk cease fire until after November 5th. He ordered his minions in congress to not pass the border bill for the same reasons. Trump doesn’t care about anyone but himself. Count the Me s, Myself, and I s along with all his lies = Trump!
Nothing new for republicans....Nixon, Reagan....
By any reasonable measure, it is treason.
Now 3.4% :)
Listen to Governor Walz in this talk to his fellow geographers and love him even more. He has serious chops! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ni8BrT0-6gM
Thanks so much for posting this link!!!
So welcome! A friend sent it to me.
Wow. I'm an earth scientist and in early days we used ESRI to do all kinds of interesting things to understand the interactions of water, earth, pollution, & people. Watching Governor Walz use this phenomenal tool so skillfully to layer together data about people and their environment and use graphic mapping to SHOW how useful it is blew my admiration for him out of this world! Another amazing accomplishment in his portfolio. And this talk really shows off his ability to communicate complex concepts to ordinary folks. I am impressed.
agree. And the story about his students and Rwanda - wow! it's way beyond optimism what he and Kamala can do for our country, indeed the world imo.
I agree! Suddenly, we might be able to get ahead of disasters.
Love hearing this from an earth scientist! I know nothing about ESRI and Walz was able to introduce it to me in a way I could understand. Clearly, he also introduced it in a way that those students could understand. That he threw them all the problem of where and when would there be the next genocide, and they were able to pinpoint Rwanda........opens such potential!
Thank you Simon!
I’m not even sure how to describe what I felt last night - hope, love, optimism, patriotism, joy were included but not sufficient. Every person that spoke said things I resonated to, especially hearing from Republicans and Independents on the floor of the DNC! Seeing how deep the Democrats bench is was gobsmacking! Hearing the passion and commitment to democratic ideals from literally everyone was like bathing in joy and for too long, despite being an active citizen, I more often felt fear and dread rather than joy. Not today.
And I gotta say, my Governor is bringing it! I am fortunate enough to be represented by Democrats at every level. They all work hard and often deliver far beyond expectations. But watching this metastasize because Walz is such a truly decent human is just plain heaven. The Hopium is spreading.
Back to postcards. I have a speech to watch later but work comes first. Let’s do this!
So amazing! This convention is chock-a-block with Hopium - not the least of which, ALL of Simon's fantastic data-driven work on how good our party has been for America's economy (among other things) is woven throughout. President Clinton hit a note directly on that theme in his speech. And Walz is a breath of fresh air!
Tim Walz just kinda makes you feel good about people in general….the last person to elevate the word “neighbor” this much was Mr. Rogers, and I’m here for it! 😁🇺🇸
Love this. I am convinced that this world would be an amazing place if we could do what I did with my kids and that was sit them in front of Mr Rogers every afternoon with milk and cookies!!!
The whole thing is making me want to get a cardigan sweater and change my shoes 🤷♂️😂
This is absolutely my favorite comment on this thread.
His sweater is in the Smithsonian in Washington DC
All the speakers were great! Especially Governor/Coach Walz!
The convention is a great expression of JOY& HOPE.
This morning I was brought back to day to day reality.
A ultra right evangelical medical professional sent me a clip of a guy talking on CNN claiming the Democrats have ruined America because they have been in charge for 10 years? What?
No push back by the host.
Bill Clinton is right powerful people want to control America. We better realize that when Democrats succeed Corporate America will double down to take away our freedom.
Get busy & do something!
Vote November 5,2024
🎉💙👍🏼
Ah, yes. That was the other Hopium concept in Bill Clinton's speech - Simon's deck re: job creation and looking at the crossroads of this moment in terms of freedom vs. domination
We had 28 folks over at my house last night phonebanking into Nevada for Kamala. Some good convos, some less-good, but all of ‘em important, and each one giving the Harris campaign vital information that it will use down the line to maximize its GOTV operation. We are the turnout machine, folks, and the other side doesn’t have anything like us. If you haven’t yet, please tap in and join.
Thank you for doing all that! The Hopium is strong!
💙
Simon, excellent messages today and thank you for your work in analysyou is and communicating. So glad you highlighted former Lieutenant Governor of Georgia Geoff Duncan's short and impactful speech. Today Lawrence O'Donnell called his comment, "If you vote for Kamala Harris in 2024, you are not a Democrat. You are a patriot," the most consequential statement of the night. We need to realize that It is not an easy thing to change what is to many a deep seated conviction. It is not easy to leave the cult. Trump took over the core of the Republican Party, much of conservative Christianity -- including white Evangelicals and anti-abortion Catholics -- and the rich and prosperous Republicans of Wall Street and the corporate C-suites, and made this conglomeration of interests into a religion serving his own ego. It will be hard to give that up. We don't have to convince them they were wrong. and certainly not inherently evil or stupid. We just have to convince them that there is a better way for this time and for the country we all love.
Some of the best work of the convention has been showing Donald Trump's betrayal of what many Republicans want and Republican leaders agreed to on immigration and the Border -- only to try to game the horse race of the election in his favor. I and many others have been dropping donations in the various Hopium slated races. Let's urge the 100,000 members this community to make sure we reach all our donation goals. Give now when it can make a difference in the month of September.
Joyce Vance concluded her substack issue today with Duncan's words as well.
"It is not easy to leave the cult." So, so true. Just remember how many drank the Kool-aid. But some will and others who swear not to vote for Harris/Walz just won't vote at all. At least that's my hope and what I know has happened over the years - thanks to 50+ years of voting and talking to friends & neighbors.
1. They're crushing it. It's absolutely full-on full of banger speeches (of course, some are very good politicians but surprisingly bad public speakers) and you can feel the joy and inspiration pouring out.
2. Tim Walz is an amazing choice. Kamala Harris chose the best partner for her campaign and you can clearly see how much Joe Biden shaped her and guided her. She was best partner that Joe could have picked.
3. I feel like I -- a theater kid from NJ whose high school barely had a football team but put on 10-15 off-broadway-quality theater productions a year -- am ready to go run for a 100-yard touchdown after Walz's speech. Also, Tim and I have the same ties, which is hilarious, since I've never felt closer to a politician than one who bought that same yellow-and-blue tie from Jos. A. Bank.
4. Gus Walz is adorable, a ND kid just like mine, and he LOVES HIS DAD.
5. This is just an amazing convention. This must be what it feels like to be at Taylor Swift show, only it's 100% political nerds. That being said, I did just read that Taylor landed in Nashville, picked up her parents, and is... headed somewhere else? :)
From your lips to Taylor’s ears!
Imagine... if Tayor Swift did a surprise gig on the last night of the DNC!
I was worried about Gus, because the GOP has no bottom so they would absolutely go after a ND kid. But he was adorable and so proud of his dad, and his dad is so proud of him, that I think it’s going to be okay. Nobody is going to let them bully Gus.
If they try, WE won't let them get away with it.
we'll all have his back; what a wonderful kid.
Simon, the link that should be to 'in depth post behind strategy of candidates [supported]' goes to 'with democrats'
I live in NC. Drumpf has bought a ton of advertising (both online and TV) in recent weeks, and has made three trips to the state over the last two-three weeks (for a guy who hasn't been traveling hardly anywhere lately). The internal polling obviously has his campaign alarmed. Good. Hope NC swings blue in November.
We are Hopium--hope with a plan. And that's why we're busting ass and flipping NC for Kamala and Tim and Josh and Allison Riggs and Mo Green and Jeff Jackson and EVERY SINGLE DOWNBALLOT DEMOCRAT!
Then I hope Trump doubles down and visits NC twice as much. The best thing for his numbers is to keep him from the voters
You can bet they weren’t planning to spend that much money in nc. We always assume they have some dastardly master plan as they desperately try to put out one new fire after another.
I also expect that their internal polling for Mark Robinson is tanking in the Governor's race! What a dumpster fire!!
NOTE: This article is a little over a week old so it's somewhat dated: https://www.politicsnc.com/p/josh-stein-is-winning