Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Democrats Are Having A Very Good Summer. Republicans Have Trump.
Happy Monday all! 2 events this week. Welcome new subscribers!
Friends - got a few things for you on this beautiful late summer morning here in Washington, DC. Trying out a new “Monday Roundup” format today:
August Events - You can find more information and RSVP info about each of our upcoming events here:
Tuesday, August 15th, 7pm EST - Hopium Paid Subscriber Political Briefing and Hangout. If you are not yet a paid subscriber and would like to join us tomorrow, take advantage of our late summer paid subscriber drive which is offering a 10% discount on annual memberships through Labor Day.
Friday, August 18th, 1pm EST - With Democrats Things Get Better - This is my signature presentation, and an important source of the Hopium we savor here.
Tuesday, August 22nd, 7pm EST - Monthly Hopium Political Briefing and Discussion for the entire Hopium Chronicles community.
Looking forward to seeing everyone! Lots of good news to discuss!
The Economy is Strong, Inflation is Down, There Is No Recession On The Horizon
Biden Leads in Recent Polling. I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them
Dems Just Keep Winning!!!!!!!!!!
57-43 (Our Ohio Margin)
Republicans Are Saddled With Trump and MAGA. It’s A Serious Problem
Hopium Chronicles Basics
What I Mean By Hopium (Audio)
Here’s how Ron Brownstein wrote about this moment and our emerging opportunity in CNN recently:
Simon Rosenberg, the long-time Democratic strategist who was proven right as the most prominent public skeptic of the “red wave” theory in 2022, argues that Trump, in particular, is unlikely to match his 47% of the vote from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again. “We are starting at a place where it is far more likely in my mind that he gets to 45% than he gets to 49%,” Rosenberg said. “And if he gets to 45%, we have the opportunity to get up to 55%. The key for Democrats is we have to imagine growing and expanding our coalition for it to happen.”
Beyond the personal doubts about Trump among voters outside the GOP coalition, Democrats such as Rosenberg and Anzalone see several other factors that give Biden a chance to widen his winning margin from the last election. Perhaps the most important of those are the slowdown in inflation, continued strength of the job market, and signs of accelerating recovery in the stock market – all of which are already stirring some gains in consumer confidence. Democrats are encouraged as well by recent declines in the number of undocumented immigrants attempting to cross the Southern border and the crime rate in big cities – two issues on which polls show substantial disappointment in Biden’s performance.
Another change since 2020 is the broad public backlash, especially in Democratic-leaning and swing states, against the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to abortion, which Trump has directly claimed credit for engineering through his nominations to the court. Finally, compared to 2020, the electorate in 2024 will likely include significantly more young people in Generation Z, a group that is preponderantly supporting Democrats, and fewer Whites without a college degree, now the GOP’s best group.
All of these factors, Rosenberg said, create “an opportunity” for Democrats to amass a bigger majority next year than most consider possible. But to get there, he argues, the party will need to think bigger, particularly in its efforts to mobilize younger voters aging into the electorate. “It’s a man on the moon kind of mindset,” Rosenberg said. “We have to want to go there to get there. We have to build a strategy to take away political real estate from the Republicans because they are giving us the opportunity to take it away from them.”
Many Republican strategists privately agree that the combined effect of the January 6 insurrection and the court’s abortion decision will make it difficult for Trump to expand his support from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again.
And a big thank you to all our new paid subscribers. Our late summer subscription drive is off to a really good start!
Keep working hard all - Simon