Democrats Are Having A Very Good Summer

Our monthly live get together is tomorrow night at 7pm. Welcome new subscribers!

Happy Monday all! A reminder that Joe Biden and the Dems are having a very good summer - big Ohio win, inflation down, economy strong, great new Biden ads. Republicans, well, they have Trump, and MAGA, and DeSantis, and Vivek, and RFK and lots and lots of indictments. Yes, it has been a good summer.

Once again trying out a new “Monday Roundup” format:

Tuesday, August 22nd, 7pm ET - Our Monthly Hopium Political Briefing and Discussion - RSVP here. Lots and lots of stuff to talk about. Been a remarkably busy political summer. I will kick it off at 7pm with 15-20 minutes of comments and then open it up for questions. A recording will be available Tue night/Wed morning for those who can’t make it live. Looking forward to seeing everyone!

The Economy is Strong, Inflation is Down, There Is No Recession On The Horizon And America Is A Global Leader on Climate Once Again

• On The Energy Transition, Reasons for Optimism (New)

• Another Good Inflation Report

• The Economy Is In The Midst of Something Wonderful (and Unexpected)

• August Jobs Report - Steady Growth, Strong Earnings, Unemployment Down to 3.5%

Biden Campaign Comms and Ads - Off To A Very Strong Start

• It’s The American People Who Are the Heroes Of This Story (New)

• The Importance Of Winning The Economic Argument This Year

• Biden’s Strong Launch, Day 2 (more really good ads)

2023 Election and Polling Analysis - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them

• Friday Poll and Data Roundup - Abortion and Treason (New)

• Some Thoughts on 3rd Party/Rogue Party Efforts

• 57-43 - Dems Keep Winning!!!!- (Ohio)

• Notes on Polling, 18 Months Out

Getting to 55 and The Importance of The Youth Vote

• Get to 55, Expanding Our Coalition, The Youth Opportunity

• Interview with Harvard’s John Della Volpe

• Interview with the Civics Center Laura Brill

Republicans Are Saddled With Trump and MAGA - It’s A Serious Problem

• We Cannot Look Away From What the GOP Has Become (New)

• Notes on the 19 Republicans Indicted in Georgia (New)

• The Right-Wing Narrative About Biden Is Collapsing

Our Democratic Grassroots Is Stronger Than It’s Even Been/Becoming An Info Warrior for Democracy/Getting Louder/The Democratic Party Is Strong

• Our Muscular Grassroots And Our Need To Get Louder and Become Info Warriors (short video)

• Not Obeying in Advance

Hopium Chronicles Basics

• What I Mean By Hopium (Audio)

• With Democrats Things Get Better - August, 2023

• Welcome To My New Home, Hopium Chronicles

New Pods and Press

• My appearance on Deep State Radio w/David Rothkopf and Dahlia Lithwich - The Georgia Indictments (New)

• My appearance on Politics War Room with James Carville and Al Hunt - Building a Democratic Majority

• New mentions in the Washington Post, Politico Playbook, Time, The Guardian, Reuters, The Hill, Washington Examiner, Daily Kos

Here’s how Ron Brownstein of CNN and The Atlantic wrote about this moment and our emerging opportunity:

Simon Rosenberg, the long-time Democratic strategist who was proven right as the most prominent public skeptic of the “red wave” theory in 2022, argues that Trump, in particular, is unlikely to match his 47% of the vote from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again. “We are starting at a place where it is far more likely in my mind that he gets to 45% than he gets to 49%,” Rosenberg said. “And if he gets to 45%, we have the opportunity to get up to 55%. The key for Democrats is we have to imagine growing and expanding our coalition for it to happen.”

Beyond the personal doubts about Trump among voters outside the GOP coalition, Democrats such as Rosenberg and Anzalone see several other factors that give Biden a chance to widen his winning margin from the last election. Perhaps the most important of those are the slowdown in inflation, continued strength of the job market, and signs of accelerating recovery in the stock market – all of which are already stirring some gains in consumer confidence. Democrats are encouraged as well by recent declines in the number of undocumented immigrants attempting to cross the Southern border and the crime rate in big cities – two issues on which polls show substantial disappointment in Biden’s performance.

Another change since 2020 is the broad public backlash, especially in Democratic-leaning and swing states, against the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to abortion, which Trump has directly claimed credit for engineering through his nominations to the court. Finally, compared to 2020, the electorate in 2024 will likely include significantly more young people in Generation Z, a group that is preponderantly supporting Democrats, and fewer Whites without a college degree, now the GOP’s best group.

All of these factors, Rosenberg said, create “an opportunity” for Democrats to amass a bigger majority next year than most consider possible. But to get there, he argues, the party will need to think bigger, particularly in its efforts to mobilize younger voters aging into the electorate. “It’s a man on the moon kind of mindset,” Rosenberg said. “We have to want to go there to get there. We have to build a strategy to take away political real estate from the Republicans because they are giving us the opportunity to take it away from them.”

Many Republican strategists privately agree that the combined effect of the January 6 insurrection and the court’s abortion decision will make it difficult for Trump to expand his support from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again.

Here is the first video the Biden re-elect produced back in the Spring. It is worth watching again. In my view the campaign, while still young, is in a strong place and deeply aware of our moment, and our opportunities.

And a big thank you to all our new paid subscribers! Our late summer subscription drive - 10% off annual paid subscriptions through Labor Day - is off to a great start!

Keep working hard all - Simon